FASUDIR Decision Support Methodology

FASUDIR

Decision Support Methodology

FASUDIR WP4 results booklet Contents by Paul Mittermeier (MUAS), Lucia Fuselli (LBS), Alessandra Masini (D’APPOLONIA), Aitziber Egusquiza, Ander Romero (TECNALIA), Nick Purshouse (IES) Editing and Layout by Giulia Barbano (iiSBE R&D) Based on work carried out by the FASUDIR Consortium partners from December 2013 to February 2015 Part of the text included in chapter Interconnection between district and building scales was published in Interconnection between Scales for Friendly and Affordable Sustainable Urban Districts Retrofitting, by Barbano G. and Egusquiza A., in Energy Procedia doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2015.11.332 Published June 2016 © 2016 FASUDIR Consortium Partners. All rights reserved. FASUDIR is an FP7 Project supported by the European Commission under GA no. 609222 The document reflects only the authors’ views and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

http://www.fasudir.eu

Contents Methodological Framework

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User requirements & business models

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Information flow and interoperability requirements

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Interconnection between district and building scales 28 Decision Support Methodology

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Decision makers targets & objectives Constraints Financial issues User case scenarios Preparation phase Diagnosis phase Decision-making phase Implementation Sensitivity analysis

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IDST architecture overview

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Methodological Framework

User requirements and business models The main objective of the FASDUIR Methodology development was to establish the conceptualisation and strategies to develop a holistic methodological framework for the assessment of energy and sustainability retrofitting interventions at building and district level. The energy retrofitting of districts is a complex and work intensive task. In order to achieve the most effective results all involved stakeholders have to cooperate in a well-coordinated and structured way. The high complexity of retrofitting projects on district scale requires a thoughtful methodology which guides the planners and stakeholders through all phases of the project. To improve the effectiveness of the planning and implementation process of energy retrofitting measures and to reduce the needed time the use of an advanced and integrated planning and decision-support tool (IDST) is indispensable. Understanding user requirements and their business objectives in undertaking potential district retrofitting projects is crucial for designing an effective decision support tool. With this in mind, at the beginning of the Methodology development an in-depth survey of a wide range of stakeholders was undertaken. The survey took place in Italy, Germany, Hungary, Spain and UK, being coordinated from London Business School and executed by the country-specific partners involved in the task. The stakeholders identified ranged from federal government planners through architects, technical advisers, local planners, energy suppliers and ESCOs to owners and social housing managers, covering district projects that range from three or four buildings to many thousands. Potential users evidently value an approach that is easy to understand and helps to guide users’ preferred solutions, though various constraints, to a well-structured, multi-criteria trade-off analysis.

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Information flow and interoperability requirements The IDST requires a wide set of data, both for the calculation of the Key Performance Indicators and for the assessment of the building and district modelling. Therefore the sources to gather and collect the data which are needed to calculate and evaluate the KPIs have been identified. This work step allowed checking the interoperability between the different data types that are needed and their inclusion in the IDST. The required data for the FASUDIR IDST coming from different stakeholders have been identified and categorized according to the entry type and source. Main data sources for the IDST therefore are GIS data for geometries of buildings and district objects, statistical data and data from manual user inputs (on-site inspection, questionnaires). Moreover the IDST is based on country specific default building typologies which will set the baseline for the Citymodel. To achieve this the FASUDIR team conducted the identification of the interoperability requirements of the IDST as well as requirements to enable the future design of an ecosystem of tools and services based on the IDST. In order to enable this, a detailed overview of tools and websites used to support the IDST operations has been developed.

The gathered knowledge about data interoperability was used to identify the information flow between system components. Based on the flow between the system components a FASUDIR ecosystem of tools and the operation method have been developed. External tools will mainly be used for processing of GIS datasets and to include them in a FASUDIR CityGML Citymodel. For simulation of KPIs the IES VE modules (ApacheSIM, SunCast, EnviroImpact and LifeCycle) is used as back-engine tools. For the front-end visualization a HTML5 based user interface is used.

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Interconnection between district and building scales In addition to the technical aspects like data interoperability and data sources the IDST allows users to act freely between building and the district scale by using a multiscale approach. Thanks to a detailed analysis conducted by the FASUDIR partners the relationships between the different levels that define the methodological framework (building and district level) of the FASUDIR project have been established. Due to the complexity of urban sustainability, interscalarity and multiscalarity, first it was necessary to identify the different scales of analysis, to capture various themes in their own specific nature and as part of a cohesive whole, and to highlight the interconnections between different components, both horizontally (e.g. adjacent neighbourhoods) and vertically (e.g. a block in a neighbourhood). The developed methodology analysed the urban morphology in order to enhance the synergies of the solutions adopted through economies of scale (district heating feasibility, load curves optimization, energy storage, etc.) but also to prevent conflicts with the district interventions. The implications of multiscalarity and interscalarity in the overall framework have been reflected through the three different phases of the sustainable retrofitting cycle: diagnosis (modelling/current state identification), decision making (target/strategy definition) and the management phase (implementation and monitoring). The identification of the impact of district solutions on buildings´ systems and compatibility of across scales, and the assessment of the relationship between building level interventions and their consequences at district scale have been addressed through interconnected building and district KPIs (multi-scale KPIs).

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Decision support methodology After setting the frameworks for the user identification, the data interoperability and the multiscalarity and interscalarity approach the core of the IDST, the FASUDIR Methodology was developed. The methodology enables the decision maker to define the district retrofitting project through the selection of the best solution. To achieve these objectives a structured methodological approach to fulfill all the needs has been developed. Firstly targets and objectives which are the main drivers for decision-makers in district retrofitting projects have been identified. The result of the analysis showed that the identified targets can be grouped into the three sustainability pillars under ecologic, economic and social targets. Moreover, the specific constraints and restrictions in retrofitting projects on district and building scale were defined. To consider all financial aspects in the methodology (financial and performance risks, selection of most suitable, financing mechanism, macro impact for public bodies, etc.) a detailed description of the ways of including financial mechanisms in the IDST has been developed. The use of LCC templates and a financial data entry tool in the user interface provides the necessary framework for this approach in the IDST. The general scope and the main user case scenarios for the methodology and the IDST were introduced. The structure of the Decision-Support Methodology and its interaction with the IDST were shown in a comprehensive and clear overview diagram, which was developed. The Decision-Support Methodology is composed of four main phases which follow the real process of district retrofitting projects (preparation, diagnosis, decision-making and implementation). To analyse the risk of inaccuracies a sensitivity analysis on the key uncertainties was conducted.

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Architecture of the IDST After the development of the holistic methodology for the decision making was finished it was necessary to define how it could be implemented in the IDST. Therefore the overall functional requirements and architecture for the IDST had to be translated into detailed software Requirement Specifications. The activities focused on the identification of the required modules to be included in the IDST in order to effectively reflect the decision making methodology. Communication protocols between modules and system components also have been explored and the most appropriate ones have been determined. FASUDIR IDST tool will implement the decision support methodology under the architecture of a web application with modules running on the server and a web portal to remotely access to the system. The defined architecture takes into account criteria of flexibility and scalability of the IDST and ensures also interoperability with the other tools required for its correct implementation, i.e. GIS software. The IDST will have three main blocks: the cloud database which hosts the City Model, the back engine which runs simulations to calculate KPIs and the front end, which is the direct interface for the user.

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REQUIREMENTS

User needs, information flow, interoperability, multiscalarity

User requirements & business models Survey description

The survey was intended to determine whether user needs (scope, elements and focus) and business models vary for different types of projects/districts, in order to translate such requirements into relevant platform specifications.

The Consultation Questionnaire was made up of 22 questions, and distributed to various stakeholders in Italy, Hungary, Germany, Spain and Britain, with several follow-up calls to further discuss specific interview points.

The respondents represented six categories: (1) municipal and central governments, (2) energy suppliers, (3) utilities, (4) social housing stakeholders, including cooperatives, (5) ESCOs, (6) developers, planners and other advisors. The aim was to capture the widest possible range of projects’ scopes and values in order to assess the level of flexibility needed by the tool.

The questionnaire is divided into 6 sections: to identify the stakeholder in terms of projects (scope, scale, value) and interactions.

• to ask for a general opinion on potential use of the tool and specific must-have features for it to be effective.

• to investigate key metrics used to assess projects: business metrics, performance metrics, financial metrics, financial risks.

• to deal with the funding mix preferred, key factors considered within specific type of funding and differences in business models depending on buildings characteristics (type, ownership, size of district).

• to ask about key success factors in top-down and bottom-up approaches, undesirable project characteristics, and incorporation of RES (Renewable Energies, and related funding mechanisms) into district retrofits.

• to investigate data sources and methodologies utilized in assessing positive/negative socio-economic externalities, included impact on property values.

Compared to previously published studies, this survey was more detailed in its focus on user requirements and business aspects.

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Main survey outcomes The survey provided evidence that confirms the relevance of the general objectives of the FASUDIR IDST and refines the initial vision of the user needs and proposed functionalities. All stakeholders expressed a positive need for the functionalities that the IDST could provide, highlighting a strong endorsement for the general objectives of the project.

With regard to the proposed functionality, the preference for a decision aid that works with the users’ expressed choices and preferences to evaluate appropriate actions, rather than automating decision rules to prescribe the best solution, was a response from the majority of respondents. This steers the FASUDIR IDST away from some of the more prescriptive, optimization intentions that were initially envisaged.

Communication features and interactivity of FASUDIR IDST were strongly supported. For district level solutions, social policy is also important in a way that transcends smaller projects. Communication between a wider range of stakeholders and the need to engage a variety of owners and users in compromised solutions are therefore key differentiating aspects from single building projects. Many stakeholders emphasised this, and clearly recognised that district level projects are more than just a summation of individual building projects. Alignment with regional constraints is crucial and most stakeholders believed that a software tool with an e-platform could be substantially beneficial in this respect. Not only can it facilitate communication between decision-makers, but also help with the credibility of the projects and its wider dissemination to improve community support. Some stakeholders even suggested that there would be an educational role for the IDST in terms of community engagement.

Further results from specific survey questions were as follows:

Scope and Scale

We saw a wide range of stakeholders, from federal government to housing block managers, and, as a consequence, a vast difference in the scope of projects emerged. The software may need to deal with building from one unit to several thousand. In terms of value, they range from a few hundred euros to over ten million, with inhabitants from zero to a few hundred thousand. Ownership of the buildings reflects private, co-operatives, co-investment, institutional and public.

Coping with such a range of scope and scale is a challenge for the IDST.

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Engagement between Stakeholders

This reflects three distinct functions. Firstly, if there is co-operative participation in the actual decision-making, then there is a need to compile information from different sources, and a need to disseminate the analyses and project plans to a variety of interested parties.

Overall, the range of answers was consistent with the various stakeholders originally envisaged, except that there is apparently a larger internal communication requirement within the larger organisations (e.g. central government) than was previously identified. For example, co-ordination and communication between the many offices of councils, asset management, legal, procurement, building, planning, public relations, training, regional sections and social services were mentioned, but there are doubtless many more.

Usefulness of the IDST

All of the original features were valued as being useful. The e-platform came out top, quite significantly, and this is consistent with the repeated expressions of the communication value of the proposed tool as revealed in other parts of this survey. Decision-support then followed as the next most useful feature.

Desirable Features

High level insights and ease of use featured strongly, as did a style of decision support that tests user-proposed solutions. Automated analysis was ranked lowest. Surprisingly, this pattern of preferences did not seem to depend upon stakeholder type. Naturally, many respondents would like the tool to be flexible in use, to be multi-level offering both high level and detailed analyses as required.

Business and Other Objectives

What was quite surprising was is the range of objectives suggested.

The economic criteria of cost control and payback appear, as well as technical objectives associated with energy standards, but interestingly, the harder to quantify aspects such as social quality of life, stakeholder engagement, credibility and regional development also feature. There was a long list of objectives and KPIs reported leading to the observation that the IDST should perhaps have an indicative master list to prompt users, but in the end the decision tool should be open to user specifications on objectives, as indeed it must be with respect to preference weightings.

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Economic, Financial and Risk Criteria

Payback is the predominant investment criterion, with the target varying from 5 to 15 years. Rate of return also needs to be calculated.

Risk is usually managed by means of a contingency provision. There is some indication that the tool could be helpful in proposing a structure for a more thorough risk analysis involving uncertainty assessments.

Funding: A wide range of funding was acknowledged from grants, loans, owners, ESCOs, tax and rents, and in many cases the projects had multiple sources of these funds. The indications are that a well-designed IDST would help with funding success in a number of ways related to its repository of information, alignment with administrative requirements and presentation of a clear business model Evidently success with EU and government grant schemes requires careful compliance with the procedures, and success with bank loans requires clear and precise information about the project’s financial projections to support its “bankability”.

Taxonomy of Business Models

With respect to building types, it was observed that, compared to individual buildings, apartment blocks tend to rely more on external funding, have more difficult decision making, lower average expenses, and have more civic concerns, whilst office buildings feature aesthetics, energy savings and quality of working environment more strongly.

With respect to ownership, no new insights emerged from the survey, beyond the well-known problems of incentive alignment when the owner is not the occupier. Some potential to consider innovative financing, such as on-the-bill recovery of investment costs (e.g. through energy or property tax billing), was envisaged, and the IDST may wish to prompt the possibility of such solutions.

The District Dimensions

Apart from economics of scale and synergies, the district dimension opens up a wider range of planning criteria, and multiple stakeholders.

Evidently, considering the strategic fit of a district project to regional planning is often more complicated, and it may not be precisely defined. That emphasises the softer, multi-criteria requirement, but some respondents suggests that when a well-defined strategic plan exists, it can make it easier to progress a well-aligned district project.

It is also important to recognise whether the project is being driven by “top-down” regional planning, or “bottom-up” community initiatives.

The latter requires shared values and compromise. The IDST will need to capture both strategic fit and community engagement dimensions.

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Revenue and Value Appreciation

This appears to be an important dimension. Renewable energy feedin-tariffs can offer an income stream to offset costs, but they are also risky in some jurisdictions where tariffs can change quickly during project development, or even retrospectively. In many cases renewable resources are required by regulations. In addition to offsetting operating costs, energy efficient investments offer the prospect of value appreciation. This is an important consideration, and many respondents recognised it, but its assessment is elusive. The IDST should offer a facility to quantify the capital value appreciation, but it will necessarily be very subjective.

Macro-scale Impacts

These may need to be included as a subjectively assessed factor, since they are elusive to quantify and several participants prefer not to see them as relevant. Stakeholders recognise the social amenity and economic value that will follow from district improvements, but some observe that is why it is done through policy, and not necessarily from a cost-benefit analysis, since the benefits are so hard to measure in monetary terms.

Rebound Effect

Energy efficiency “rebound� effects (e.g. reducing energy costs may increase consumption, or increasing insulation may increase air conditioning loads, etc.) were recognised as a potential source of benefit erosion. Stakeholders are aware of it but do not measure it, others have very specific approaches to including it in their calculations.

The IDST should therefore offer stakeholders the capability to incorporate their own calculations, or use some specific models, but not seek to develop a new approach. There is also a suggestion that the communication benefits of the FASUDIR IDST may help to educate users in the rational use of energy and thereby perhaps mitigate the rebound effect.

Through the survey, it has become clear that there is a need for flexibility in both the provision of high level overviews of the district retrofitting scope and impacts as well as the possibility of drilling down into more detailed building level assessments. In part this can be addressed by creating user profiles, but this distinction in styles of use also reflects the stages of the project. We envisage FASUDIR being applied in different ways from the initial concept to the final implementation stages.

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FASUDIR APPLICATION CONCEPT

Developing the Concept

The concept may be initiated top-down by local governments or municipalities, or as a private or community proposal, and the feasibility study itself may funded by grants, owners or commercial advances.

The concept development could be aided by advisors and planners actively using the FASUDIR IDST. The concept will include the current state of the district as well as useful retrofitting strategies. Communication will be an important feature at this stage as all stakeholders need to be persuaded. The district retrofitting concept will be the basis for the subsequent specification in detail and project management.

Refining the Project

To progress the project after concept approval, the project initiators will commission and finance a retrofitting management team.

Managing the Project

The retrofitting management team may use the FASUDIR IDST for project managing the retrofitting process and for advising stakeholders, to demonstrate possible retrofitting scenarios and already achieved successes from the concept, to update the retrofitting manager about completed retrofitting measures, to present progresses to the local governments whilst comparing them with the EU guidelines (e.g. climate protection goals).

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User profiles Results of the survey highlight how district retroffiting projects are highly interactive between multiple stakeholders and the responses to this question justified the high communication design concept for the IDST. Interaction is not only about co-ordinating different specialist roles, but also to ensure wide communication of the projects and to gather diverse data. Sometimes internal communication between departments in the same organisation is as important as between different organisations. Apart from facilitating the project itself, some stakeholders identificed communication for educational, demonstration and general advice.

As well as the wide variety of user requirements identified by the survey, and the evolving nature of decision support throughout the stages of the project, therefore, we also envisage different styles of engagement with the software by the distinct teams involved in the work, suggesting different categories of potential users.

Development Team (Architects, Urban Planners, Engineers, etc.)

The planners and technical staff will be interactive users of the FASUDIR IDST. They will use the software at a high level to create and communicate the retrofitting concept.

Implementation Team (Project Managers, Engineers, etc.)

The project management team will also be an interactive user of the FASDUIR IDST. They will use it to refine the concept making use of the more detailed functionalities and to engage with the various stakeholders. They will monitor and manage the project with the contingency analyses that the software may specify.

Based on the above results, planning and implementation teams will need full access to all functions of the FASUDIR IDST to create the district retrofitting concept and to update the retrofitting process. As coordinators of the project (decisional and operational parts), they will need access to all uploaded data by the involved stakeholders and they will most likely administer the Communication platform (call for physical meetings, request data from stakeholders).

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Internal stakeholders (ESCOs, Owners/Users, Local Government)

The internally involved stakeholders are not be expected to use the FASUDIR IDST interactively to formulate the project, as they would not normally be seeking to directly change information in the district retrofitting concept. However, the internal stakeholders will be receptive users of the FASUDIR IDST and all internal stakeholders (e.g.

ESCOS, Building Owners/Users, Local Government / Municipalities) have the possibility to provide data to the planners via the FASUDIR IDST. The FASUDIR IDST acts as e-collaboration platform between the different involved stakeholders and the planners of the concept.

The e-collaboration platform enables the communication among the different stakeholders and the planners may also wish to use the e-communication platform to inform the internal stakeholders about the progress of the district retrofitting concept.

From the observations above, internal stakeholders present a very diversified level of competence and understanding, with the common need to communicate with and control the planning/execution activities (and related stakeholders). For all of them, the IDST provides a reading access to the current draft of the district retrofitting concept and a communication platform showing, for example, announcement of physical stakeholder meetings.

For ESCOs, Utilities and Local Governments, IDST also needs to act as an upload/export portal or data data on behalf of the planners/ executors (e.g. maps of heating network, energy consumption values, local plans) and, for the ESCOs, to export planners’/executors’ documents to programme detailed retrofitting measures .

For Owners/Users, IDST integrates extra-explanations and interrogating functions (e.g. with an online questionnaire), the former to guarantee a full understanding of the process to a stakeholder with a lower level of technical/administrative competence, the latter to gather data on the stakeholders’ retrofitting intentions.

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External stakeholders

In a retrofitting project there are many external stakeholders involved that may not be interactively using the FASUDIR IDST (e.g. building contractors, funding bodies, retail banks, central government and others). These external stakeholders would not be providing any data to the FASUDIR IDST but may use FASUDIR as an information tool and as a communication platform.

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Central government generally sets the overall framework of the district retrofitting concept (energy savings to be achieved, decrease in emissions). There may be several tiers of funding bodies, together with retail banks and other organizations, comprising the financial stakeholders in the retrofitting process, by giving grants or loans to the building owners, ESCOs and municipalities. The building contractors may be users of the FASUDIR IDST for informational purposes in the construction process.

The educational role of the software was also indicated by some of the stakeholders in the survey.

Also for External stakeholders, IDST provides reading access to current drafts of the district retrofitting concept and the communication platform. For these stakeholders, interaction and process control are the main requirements.

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Business models Survey responses indicate that there is considerable value in providing decision support help in searching for funding sources, tax benefits and developing a business plan. However, it is not envisaged that FASUDIR can provide a comprehensive reference guide to all grants and funding available.

According to a 2012 BPIE report on the use of financial instruments for energy efficiency in buildings, there is a range of 100 conventional support programmes with further 18 identified as innovative (linked to ESCOs, or obligations), without accounting for owner’s equity funding.

Additionally, funding mechanisms/solutions present a strong temporal and local variability.

Within the IDST, the choice has therefore been to develop an indicative advisory facility prompting the user in potentially useful directions, in line with the desired informative and supportive style maintained by the overall platform. The FASUDIR IDST features a high level Excel spreadsheet template and initial outline advisory profiles for the main sources of funding, encompassing the categories below.

Grants

Grants may be available at all stages of the project and cover a wide range of project scopes and scales, as a subsidy to the total costs, provided by governments or other not-for-profits to address market failures ( e.g. innovations carrying high investment risks or low attractiveness) or in order to develop a certain policy/area. As a direct form of subsidy, they should be the first option to consider, however eligibility conditions may be restrictive and projects risks would go unaddressed by this funding method: for this reasons they are mostly used for starting a project rather than as a sustainable long-term measure.

Examples of grants are the German FĂśrderprogramm (151 and 430), the Hungarian KEOP and the Spanish PAPEER, Biomass II, SOLCASA and GEOTCASA (the latter administered through specific EU-level financing).

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Loans

Loans imply that debts must ultimately be repaid, in principal and interests. Retail and commercial banks will normally finance a percentage of the project (the other being covered with owners’ equity = own funds), or the entire project (non-recourse finance) • at a price proportional to perceived risk (ability to cover the debt in different scenarios, project percentage financed) • once provided with a collateral security (ability to recur to stakeholder assets in the case of default).

More flexible than grants, loans might get expensive. The best option are preferential loans, carrying better conditions as ‘sponsored’ by supranational organizations or NGOs like the European Investment Banks (EIB) or the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) or the Green Investment Bank (GIB).

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Loan Guarantees

They are a form of grant to cover risk, awarded by another stakeholder to the investment team, or loan guarantor (usually a public body), acting as a final guarantee that defaults will be avoided. Loan guarantees are desirable as they lower lending price, increase the rate of return in the project at no extra cost, for this reason are suitable to smaller project teams and ESCOs. However they cannot replace problems with liquidity and equity. An example is the Hungarian HEECP program and the EFSI funds from the European Investment Bank.

Energy Performance Contracting

EPC is usually undertaken by an ESCO, a company assuming the entire project risk, through a contractual obligation to implement the energy savings initiatives in return for a flow of payments from the building owner or end-user. In this way, the owner/end user is passing on some of the investment returns to the ESCO, but is avoiding the initial capital outlay. With the EPC model, the ESCO is obliged to deliver.

T mechanism reduces the capital requirements from the owner and may reassure other lenders/grant agencies aboutthe project risk. On the downside, EPC is a complex instrument and tends to have less flexibility throughout the life of the project. An example of EPC is the London RE-FIT programme.

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Co-investment

Initiatives whereby institutions assume the cost of retrofitting and subsequently charge it on the property, through taxes or bills. The solution allows better lending terms and more sustainable conditions to owners, resolving the owner/renter problem; however it might be challenging to motivate householders and utilities to support the initiative. An example of Co-Investment has been the UK Green Deal.

Embedded Revenue Contribution

These are feed-in tariff (FiT) arrangements whereby the owners a revenue stream from the government or utilities from the results of their intervention (e.g. energy generation). District level solutions have a lot to offer here as there are economies of scale in the provision of generating facilities and transaction costs. Tariffs are sometimes also combined with “white certificate� trading schemes for energy efficiency: having a volume based target for energy savings, earning credits to the extent that they are achieved, and being able to trade credits so that those who are able to achieve it more efficiently do more and profit by selling to others who face higher marginal costs of energy saving. Though generating a very predictable long-term cash flow, this solution is subject to regulatory risk and when implemented at district level requires proper administration and participation of the local energy distribution company.

Tax Benefits

Reduced tax rates for the owners or contracting organisations, or specific tax/VAT benefits on costs or revenue elements are generally implemented at member state level through apposite programs. Though they can be subject to annual changes, they remain an extremely flexible instrument (very wide applicability) and can be implemented into financial models built to seek financing; however they can be subject to annual changes. In its 2012 report, BPIE noted that 14 of the 27 EU member states had fiscal incentives of tax reduction, tax credits and/or reduced VAT rates for investment in energy efficiency in buildings.

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Information flow and interoperability requirements

Within this section the identification of the interoperability requirements of the IDST is described.

The IDST requires a wide set of data, thus the use of the related tools, both for the calculation of KPIs and for the assessment of the building and district modelling. The interoperability allows the use of these external tools for analysis purposes.

Ecosystem of tools The IDST is based on the “ecosystem of tools” concept: under the same architecture, several resources support the analysis process for selecting retrofitting solutions that take into account urban typologies which are common in European Cities.

The IDST uses input data derived from hard and soft aspects of the district, the morphological factors of the built environment and the architectural ones. Furthermore socio-economic aspects, social and legal constraints are considered. Therefore, the “ecosystem of tools” is a set of interrelated modules, based on client-server architecture, that interface one with another to develop a simplified final solution for the user.

In order to build-up this “ecosystem of tools”, extended analysis, review and final selection of the existing tools were made and preliminary investigation on data formats and communication protocols was conducted with the aim of identifying the possible connections and the exchange of data.

Following, the external tools selected within the analysis process for the basic “Process/information flow” are reported:

1. Prepare base information → GIS

Geodata are used to make the calculations of many spatially explicit KPIs. Since the main idea is to create a spatial database to store and manage data within the IDST, the raw data for FASUDIR should be handled and/or converted, practically by GIS.

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2. Manage project level information → GIS, WFS

The open standard CityGML has been chosen for structuring and updating urban and building information. The most common solutions that are also able to handle geodata are MSSQL, PostGIS and Oracle Spatial. These programs have rich export/import functions and they are suited for software development purposes because of their widely known interoperability functions. PostGIS DBMS supports 3D geometries and geospatial information. Consequently, it can handle and store CityGML/GML3 based data structure in a conformant way.

Furthermore, integrated WFS provide discovery and queries (on feature and property level), creating, modify or deleting objects functions.

3. Simulations → VE

KPIs calculation and simulation are made through the IES-VE software that allows for dynamic simulation of a building in terms of energy, thermal performance, CO2 emissions, air flow, including also an evaluation of LCA and LCC. Furthermore, in order to derive a set of indicators both at building and district scales, a novel selection process for deriving potential interventions will be integrated in the VE back engine.

Therefore the IDST makes the necessary links between the various tools above and ensures that the used data are managed with the use of international standards and formats.

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Data requirements and integration After the analysis of the tools, all the parameters needed for the calculation of KPIs were determined and described upon their source, the type of the data (e.g. visual, text, number) the format (e.g. file .xml, .csv), the availability (e.g. free, upon request), and the accessibility (e.g. possibility to download).

For each KPIs category (environmental, social and economic), both at building and district level, calculation elements and their corresponding information channel were identified. These elements include external data as well as internal one. The lack of internal availability for some of the needed data required a virtual use of external database to supply additional information in the IDST tool. The focus of this process was the identification and the selection of all needed information as qualitative and quantitative data to assess the final KPIs calculation.

This information was organised in a number of tables including general information to identify the KPI such as matching category (environmental, social and economic), KPI name and organization level that describe the “multi scale” property rather the KPI calculated for single building is evaluated as aggregate of other buildings values included in the district area. Parameters, the corresponding unit of measure and the directives that explain objective and preventive measures about which is referred the KPI evaluation, were also assessed. Finally other information was provided through the following fields: •

Elements contribute in the KPI calculation and can be identified within the current IDST database or in external database; • Unit, the metric system or percent points of the single element; • Database, classification of the type of database used for the identification of the data: e.g. IES-VE software database or other sources; • Source can be alternatively IES-VE software modules or any other external sources; • Format, data format (e.g. value, visual, GIS...); • Type of file processed within the IDST software.

Not all the parameters were involved in the IDST database. Therefore it had to be integrated through other sources, and in some cases (e.g. when an automatic link cannot be established) the user manually enters the needed data. This combination of information at district and building level provides all necessary elements for the calculation of the KPIs. Up to now there are also some data that are automatically proposed by the IDST software according to selected building types and construction year (e.g. U-values) but that the user has always the possibility to change if he has more detailed information from other sources.

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Calculation process The principles of the calculation process for the FASUDIR KPIs can now be explained. The first step will be the data entry process to fill the records of each building as well as for the whole district with a variety of different semantic and geometric information. The filled records are the basis for the following KPIs calculation. The attributes stored in the records will be used to run simulations on the different identified simulation modules on the server farms (e.g. thermal simulation, LCA simulation). In order to calculate the KPIs the data from the records are transferred to the KPIs Calculation Modules. The KPIs Calculation modules deliver the results as well as the benchmarking of the KPIs separated on building and district level and store them in a special KPIs record. In order to get a linkage between the different scales from building level to district level the KPIs are connected through multi-scale KPIs. FASUDIR IDST uses the following multi-scale KPIs: 1. Energy Demand 2. Impacts on the Environment 3. Life Cycle Costs 4. Return on Investment The other building level KPIs which are not capable of multi-scalarity cannot be aggregated by easily summing them up to an overall value.

An explanatory example for such a KPI is the “Thermal Comfort� one.

An aggregation of this indicator makes no sense as the thermal comfort is specially related to single buildings and cannot usefully be indicated for a variety of buildings. However, it may be possible to average such KPIs from building level to an overall district value. This is possible by weighting the results from single buildings with the size of the building in the district. Thus it is possible to display the influence of retrofitting interventions on the overall thermal comfort in the neighbourhood.

Actually, it is not useful to base the decision-making on KPIs that are mainly related to single buildings and cannot be aggregated or averaged on district level. The building level KPIs not capable of multi-scalarity or calculating an useful average should be mainly used to identify weak or improvements on building level caused by the district retrofitting scenarios). The decision-making at the end should only be based on the multi-scale and averageable as the district level as a whole must have the priority over the building level.

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Data entry and external connections Data entry can be distinguished into the building level process and district one.

The data entry process on building level is mainly influenced by the different ways of gathering and importing the necessary data. Therefore, it is, despite of all automation, mainly controlled by the user himself.

In order to structure the data entry process, the following main building records categories were identified:

Building records derivable from regularities: e.g. U-value relevant information

In order to simplify and accelerate the data entry process, the building records derivable from regularities may be filled with pre-defined default values e.g default U-values for all single-family residential buildings constructed during a specific period. These values are used to create thermal model datasets for the current state of the buildings as well as for the simulation of retrofitting interventions. Since the use of default values is often very inaccurate, the IDST user should always collect real data via on-site inspections or from further data sources (owner/ tenant surveys). Many different data sources (e.g. analog tables, GIS, data from external tools) should be used to achieve the most realistic model of a real building.

Building records not derivable from regularities: e.g. building geometry

There are many building parameters that cannot be derived from regularities because it is not feasible and useful to derive default values for them e.g. the construction years. Therefore it is not possible to pre-fill these parameters in the building records with default values.

For some of the necessary parameters the IDST supports the data inclusion by the use of automatic data reading from different sources in the databases like the Citymodel. Otherwise there are also parameters, like the applied constraints, that cannot be derived from the Citymodel or that are not available in a digital format. These parameters have to be entered manually by the user who has to collect them in an autonomous way via on-site inspections or from external tools.

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The data entry process on district level follows the same principles as the building level. The main difference is that the parameters to be collected on district cannot be derived from regularities at all. Therefore it is not possible to use default values and pre-defined models to fill the district records. Many of the identified district parameters also have to be gathered through the use of external GIS tools or internal database queries in the Citymodel. Furthermore, other parameters associated to statistical values, like average unemployment rate, have to be gathered from external data and entered manually as property into the district records.

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Interconnection between district and building scales Multiscale approach

The international debate regarding the interaction between climate change, land-use and energy is focused on the identification of the suitable spatial and temporal scale or scales for effective energy planning. It is a wide and growing recognition of the importance of the local scale (e.g. municipal scale) and cross-scale dynamics (e.g. nested scales) to address and understand energy-environmental issues. In particular, built environment studies, ideally require analysis that is both fine-scale, to include buildings and streets, and large extent, to allow the study of city-wide processes.

A comprehensive strategy for the sustainable improvement at urban scale has to take into account the executive scale (i.e. the building scale) in strategic decisions. In the same way the measures to be implemented at building scale had to be coherent with the global objectives at district and city scale.

Therefore the improvement of the sustainability of urban building environments is a interscalar problem that has to be addressed with a multiscalar and multidirectional approach, going from neighborhood downwards the building and upwards and city. Multiscalar tools, methodologies and information models are needed to: •

Interconnect information at different scales; city, neighborhood, block, building and elements.

• Integrate information at fine-scales to make calculations for large urban areas • Visualize data at multiple scales.

• Connect the strategic scale (urban) and the executive scale (building-component) to ensure a more integral diagnosis and the proper implementation of the strategies.

• Connect different scale models and standards as CityGML and GIS. An in-depth survey of a wide range of stakeholders (from federal government planners through architects, technical advisers, local planners, energy suppliers and ESCOs to owners and social housing managers) carried out in the project has confirmed the need for the FASUDIR methodology and tools to support different stages of the project with different requirements regarding the scale.

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Scales and scope Due to the complexity of studying urban sustainability, the first step has been the identification of the different scales of analysis, in such a way that the various themes can be captured correctly in their own specific nature and as part of a cohesive whole. Separating the different scales can create an artificial impression of stand-alone elements of the urban territory: it is therefore fundamental to highlight the interconnections between different components, both horizontally (e.g. adjacent neighborhoods) and vertically (e.g. a block in a neighborhood). In the following sections the scales will be defined through consideration of dimension and perception, highlighting the key elements for each scale.

City Scale

European cities vary tremendously in size, from a few millions to a few thousands of inhabitants. However, the variety of sizes does not affect the perspective on the city as the largest unit of the urban scale. This is the largest scale from a dimensional point of view.

At city scale, it is possible to compare performances among cities with respect to energy consumption, resource usage, and waste production.

Furthermore, cities as social and economic entities are analyzed on a variety of metrics, to gauge and compare the quality of life. This scale is the most appropriate for a comprehensive view of the functioning of the networks, be they technical (e.g. energy) or logistic (e.g. transportation). The network’s connectivity, the distribution of sizes of streets, the public transport networks, are all aspects that can be best studied at this scale or at the district scale: it is necessary to analyze their characteristics at a wide scale, in order to gain a complete understanding of their fit in the whole urban system. The city scale is also crucial to plan correctly the distribution of services with a wide reach. A detailed awareness of the distribution of services is very important in urban policy, and while it starts at city scale, it is detailed at district scale.

District Scale

A district is generally a large subset of a city, with boundaries defined formally through historic criteria of urban development and has usually a decentralized, community government. The shape and the proportion of a district depend strongly on the grid of the urban fabric and there are strong regional differences (for several European cities a district can be outlined by a square of 800 x 800 m, while in North America the side of the square can be approximately 1 mile).

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At the district scale it is possible to evaluate the structure, the complexity, and the connectivity of the street networks, including pedestrian and public transportation. Districts can also be studied under the socio-economic lens, by assessing on a somewhat homogeneous base the social mix, the distribution of functions and activities, the availability of jobs, and the diversity of available housing. They key aspect that is visible at district scale is the functioning of large scale networks of services.

Neighborhood Scale

The neighborhood scale is perhaps the most traditionally recognized: while often it is not defined formally through official city boundaries, a neighborhood is identified as such by its inhabitants as a homogeneous whole, with its specific characteristics and defining traits, be they social, cultural, or architectural. Identifying the size of a neighborhood can be difficult, especially due to its emergence as a social construct.

Some dimensional limits can be of size, such as a square with a size ranging from 200 to 400 m, of time, by identifying an area that can be crossed in 10-15 minutes by foot, or of population from 200 to 1500.

At the neighborhood scale some elements lose definition, such as the large scale networks, which are now visible only through some of their constituting elements; but others take front stage, especially when considering the inhabitants’ daily life. Such neighborhoods elements are the pedestrian and cycling networks, the morphology of the buildings, the microclimate, and the presence of a variety of services.

Specifically, the shape and relation of buildings and streets can be studied at neighborhood scale, to identify the local wind conditions, the solar energy potential, and the sky factor; furthermore, it is the ideal scale to analyze the impact of buildings on each other, to identify critical issues and possible synergies.

Block Scale

This is the easiest scale to identify, as a block is defined by intersecting streets. In some cases a block and a building coincide, but the most frequent occurrence is that of a handful of buildings in the same block (either adjacent or separated). The concept of block is possibly the oldest in history. Also called cluster, the usual number of buildings can range from 2 to 12.

The block scale is ideal to analyze the morphology of the buildings, especially as applied to the evaluation of energy requirements, which can be extended to the rest of the homogeneous neighborhood. For thermal calculation, the block scale often coincides with the building scale, with the study of elements such as density, volume distribution, compactness, and so forth.

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Building Scale

The usual definition of the various urban scales usually stops at the block, as the smallest urban unity: the further subdivision is that of the building, usually identified as a standalone construction. However, a building in the urban environment is its smallest component, and therefore can be considered as the lowest level of the scale pyramid.

The most notable aspect at the building scale is the switch in perspective: the building can represent the user of networks and services that are analyzed at higher scales, as a provider or a consumer; furthermore, it is a direct source and target of interactions with other buildings.

Scope of the FASUDIR IDST In order to apply fruitfully the FASUDIR IDST, it is necessary to define specific limits, to support the user towards identifying correctly the district for which the retrofitting scenarios will be developed.

First of all, a crucial external constraint can be identified: the time scale of the retrofitting process is a key element. Projects that span decades are large scale urban transformations, and the evolution of technology and urban life over the course of such processes is so complex that the prediction and planning carried out through the IDST cannot be applied in a helpful manner. Therefore, the chosen area should be retrofitted over the course of a few years, with shortto mid-term planning.

From this basic consideration, it is clear how the large-scale district, cannot be fruitfully studied through the use of the IDST. Therefore, it is necessary to go down to the short-scale district or large neighborhood scale, and consider that to be effectively the FASUDIR district.

In order to comply meaningfully with the scope of the FASUDIR project, the extension of its scale can be defined as an intermediate level, ranging from large neighborhoods to small districts, by applying several different boundaries: a number of buildings varying from 20 to 750, a number of inhabitants ranging from 100 to 5000, and a surface area from 0,5 to 100 ha. In particular, the upper limit of 750 buildings is considered to be a comfortable limit for district retrofitting concepts, both according to stakeholders and for simulation feasibility.

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Diagnosis phase The interscalar approach of the FASUDIR project leads us to the selection of a strategy on the scale of information and to search for models that support computer-based multiscalar simulations. Considering that the main element of an urban scene is the building when the level of detail of the information required is very high and refers to the buildings and their elements (dwelling, rooms, building elements, etc.) the proper approach for the representation of information is the Building Information Model (BIM). However, if the required level of detail of information is lower and such information will be used for decisions at strategic level, suitable approach falls within the urban scale alternatives. As mentioned in the FASUDIR project is focused on the neighbourhood level. Therefore the urban scale is the most appropriate for the representation of project information, although is also necessary to have highly detailed information at building scale for decision making at urban scale. Thus, FASUDIR modelling should have a multi-scale approach for storing information to support sustainable energy assessment and management at district or neighbourhood level.

Levels of Detail (LODs)

LODS IN CITYGML (KOLBE ET AL. 2012) As mentioned before, one of the requirements for the urban modelling in FASUDIR is the need for representation of information at different scales on a single data model. The selected standard (CityGML) is one of the few options that support different levels of detail (LoD). That is the main reason why the CityGML standard was chosen from beginning as the basis for the FASUDIR urban model. The LoD are necessary to adjust the level of detail of the information to the requirements of each application and to facilitate visualization and analysis of data.

This allows analyzing and displaying the same object with different degrees of resolution. LoDs defined in CityGML are: 32

•

LoD0: The digital terrain model in two and a half dimensions. A map or aerial image can be represented by this level.

• LoD1: The block model including buildings represented as simple blocks with flat roofs.

• LoD2: Differentiates between the surfaces of façades and roof, as well as the type of the roof. Vegetation objects can also be represented.

• LoD3: Details architectural models with walls, roofs, openings (windows and doors). High resolution textures can be applied to these structures. In addition, detailed vegetation and transportation objects can be represented at this level.

• LoD4: Completes LoD3 adding interior structures. For example, buildings are composed of rooms, doors, stairs and furniture.

In the FASUDIR context it has been considered that it is enough to use the LoDs 0, 1 and 2.

District and buildings characterization

A district, in the FASUDIR context, could be considered as an amount of blocks and building within a city, and it comprises a certain amount of buildings and inhabitants, all of them with different characteristics (buildings) and different usages and needs (inhabitants). The data model has to represent the main elements of the neighborhood, as an aggregation of elements of different types. The reference element in CityGML is the Building so it seems reasonable to suggest collecting and storing the information at the building scale. Based on the elements of the cityGML standards and in the scales defined, the following hierarchical structuration is proposed:

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Information flow for district modelling

The information flow for the district modeling is necessary to nurture a detailed set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), which will provide an exhaustive picture of the energy consumptions and sustainability performances within a district. A four step process has been defined: 1. Collect 2D map with basic geometry of city elements.

2. Extrude the 2D map into a 3D model (CityGML LoD1) 3. Identify main structural elements of the buildings within the district (walls / roof) (CityGML LoD2) 4. Add information to each element in the City Model (Semantization) The FASUDIR IDST will take into account a huge set of several parameters to describe the district and to provide a wide picture to the different stakeholders, in order to inform them about the current status, In this way the stakeholders will be able to decide how and which interventions are needed, and then to act for the future retrofitting actions which will enable and transform the district into a new, energy efficient and sustainable one.

Information requirements for energy data model

The energy model has to be unique and will enable the documentation at both scales. In order to develop this model it is necessary to define a unique list of parameters that are needed for FASUDIR IDST and will contain this information: • • • • • •

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Data that is mandatory and data that could be estimate through templates Data that could vary in the different simulation scenarios and data that are fixed Data that are input for the energy model of the building Data that are results of the simulation for calculating the KPIs and data that are directly KPIs Other parameters that have to be considered in the methodology and that are different of the necessary from the KPI calculations (e.g. constraints) Templates and default values to be used when the real data are not available.

Decision making phase Feasibility of district solutions on buildings systems and their impact at building level The logical order to implement the energy strategies at district and building level is the following: 1. Reduction of energy demand 2. Increasing the efficiency of the energy supply 3. Increasing the share of renewable energies The first strategy is mainly focused on building level, but the other two could be addressed at district or building scale. Generally, urban level solutions should be prioritized over individual solutions at building level, as they are usually more cost-effective and more resource efficient.

This is why one of the first steps has to be to check the feasibility of the district solutions. The decision of selecting a district solution or not has a direct consequence in the strategies that will be selected at building level. Therefore if finally a district solution is selected, it has to be filtered at building level all the solutions that are incompatible with this decision (i.e individual boilers if a district heating system is selected).

Several district scale characteristics can contribute to creating successful district energy systems: •

Sufficient density: Districts need to target areas with sufficient building density, so that energy demand is high enough to make investing in district energy worthwhile. While there is no simple threshold of density required, district energy requires enough demand to justify a significant financial investment. Not surprisingly existing systems are located in the densest parts of cities or serve large institutions that use a lot of energy. Density is not just a measure of total building square footage. The proximity of buildings to each other, and the intensity of usage of the buildings, also influences density. New technologies can provide for heating or cooling at smaller scales, but buildings still need to be reasonably close together to make investments in distribution infrastructure worthwhile. The smaller the number of buildings and total load in close proximity, the larger the share of the total cost that will need to be spent on pipes to connect the buildings (relative to building costs and plant costs)

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•

•

•

•

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Mixed loads: Because district energy systems must be designed to handle peak energy demand (‘peak loads’) they perform better and are even more cost-effective when energy demands are spread throughout the day. Balanced loads allow for lower upfront costs and lower operating costs because the system can serve the same size community with lower total equipment capacity.

All buildings have peak times when they need more heating or cooling. This load diversification improves the economic performance of a system, since the heating or cooling capacity is used more evenly throughout the entire day.

Strategic development sites: Districts that have vacant lots or underused buildings where new, infill development or adaptive use projects are underway can contribute to the short term customer base and create awareness among neighbouring building owners.

Likewise, clusters of under-utilized buildings, such as derelict loft/ warehouse buildings that are slated for retrofit, can contribute to the demand for plant construction. Larger institutional buildings may be willing to participate if the cost of service is attractive, or they may be of sufficient scale that they generate energy on-site that could be shared. Hospitals and university campuses are prime examples of institutions with high energy demands that justify on-site generation, such as through a shared central boiler. In this type of situation, increasing the capacity of the energy plant to serve adjacent, neighbouring areas is quite economic given the large investment that would be made for a single customer.

Access to cost-effective local heating or cooling resources: Target areas should have ready access to local, clean sources of energy, such as sewers or wastewater plants, waste heat from industrial processes, waste wood or garbage, or ground-source energy. Even if the technology is capital-intensive, access to these fuel sources can make operating costs very low, even factoring in the natural gas boiler that is often needed for peak demand and backup.

Compatibility of existing building heating and cooling systems: Multi-unit office and residential buildings with electric resistant heat (such as electric baseboard or electric wall fan heaters) are not compatible with district energy (unless they are slated for a “gut rehab”) because they cannot be readily converted to another heating system without major invasive alterations. The use of electric resistance heating varies among cities, depending on electricity prices and climate conditions. In general, buildings of a certain type and vintage tend to use the same type of heating equipment, and many older districts originally relied on hydronic (radiator) systems which are compatible with district energy.

Compatibility of solutions between district and building level

The study of the constraints at building and district level is essential to understand the feasibility of the integration of the solutions, especially in a historical context. The IDST will warm in those cases to the users that the following steps will be necessary: • • •

•

•

Examination of the local legislations and policies related to the preservation of the cultural heritage in order to identify the constraints and the rules for a compatible retrofitting concept; Identification of specific levels of constraint, state of damage and possible intervention in the buildings Assessment of the visibility conditions of certain building components (e.g roofs) in order to make possible the compatible installation of RES with the historic and architectonic value of the building stock; Definition of the technical compatibility of the solutions regarding the chemical and physical vulnerability of the building fabric (e.g. efflorescence and salt reaction, moisture performance, mechanical performance…)

Landscape studies in order to facilitate the implementation of district scale solutions.

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Management phase The multiscalarity of the tool makes the IDST a powerful tool to be used for the management of the retrofitting: monitoring the achieved results, tracking the costs, and consequently updating and adapting the concept, as well as giving advice to the various stakeholders.

Implementation

As explained before, the FASUDIR IDST could be used to demonstrate possible retrofitting scenarios and already achieved successes from the district retrofitting concept. That could be used by the retrofitting management team to consult and motivate and therefore to trigger and speed up the retrofitting process.

As the final implementation of the solutions at district scale could affect the solutions at building scale, the IDST could be used to update the building level strategies if necessary. The ESCOs and building owners and users could use the IDST also in order to achieve an agreement in a provider-customer relationship and implement district retrofitting measures like district heating.

Similarily, if the responsible of the retrofitting at building level informs about completed retrofitting measures the model and accordingly the current state would be updated.

Monitoring

The retrofitting manager could use the model and the IDST to present the progress and achieved successes of the retrofitting process to the citizens and local authorities. The results could be compared with the guidelines from the European or Central Government.

The steady updating and monitoring of the KPIs will allow monitoring the real improvement of the strategies and consequently the whole process will be refined or contingency measures could be planned.

The whole methodology has to be able to articulate the structuration of all the new information and feedback generated during the whole process. All the phases of the intervention at building level (the diagnosis, the design of the intervention and its implementation) will generate new information about specific buildings that will enable more accurate decision making.

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Multiscale data management Information flow between scales

Building and District will both benefit from a set of information useful for the definition of KPIs calculation. A dual link will be established to create a set of comprehensive information: •

an horizontal link will be settled to manage the information flow between the required parameters for KPIs calculation and all the external database/data needed by the software; • a vertical link must be built to guarantee the usability of those data both at building and district level, in order to share the same set of information ensuring a computation saving and a permanent connection between building and district In the following figure an example of this scheme is represented:

INFORMATION FLOW BETWEEN DISTRICT AND BUILDING SCALE In this figure it is possible to identify at a first glance how data will be collected and exchanged between the two main levels, for the district model and the building model. In some cases there will be continuity in the data collection, because some of the needed data will be useful for both levels: in that case there will be an internal exchange to manage the data according the several calculations and modelling necessities.

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DATA FLOW FROM THE 3 CASE STUDIES

Modelling specific properties within CityGML

In order to attach more specific properties to any City Object within CityGML, beyond the available values for thematic modules, generic attributes are able to extend CityGML. Application Domain Extensions (ADEs) provide the possibility within CityGML to define specific properties for existing module feature types or even create new features types.

The representation of multiple objects for the demonstration of neighbourhoods, districts or cities is a key feature of 3D data models. Both, CityGML and the FASUDIR energy data model aim at providing services for higher spatial aggregation levels. CityGML provides the CityObjectGroup module which enables the aggregation of components (i.e.

CityObjects) and allows hierarchical grouping.

The aggregation of City Objects within the FASUDIR energy data model is an important feature for the simulation of energy-related data on a neighbourhood or district level. The energy data model must be capable in handling multiple Simulation Objects at a time for which a hierarchy as well as separate specifications of user inputs are defined.

The above described capabilities of 3D city models (e.g. CityGML) illustrate the extent to model and simulate aggregations of city components which are also essential for applications within FASUDIR.

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Semantic consistency for the example of a room

A ‘Room’ as a Feature of a Building (thematic building module) in CityGML can be described semantically by a defined set of values (specified by codes). This set of codes consists for example for the attribute class of ‘habitation’, ‘recreation’, ‘education’, ‘industry’ , ‘traffic’ etc. For the attribute function and usage values like ‘living room’, ‘utility room’, ‘stairs’, ‘nursery’, ‘showers’, ‘vivarium’, ‘stables’ etc. are included in the list of codes. The attribute class can be assigned only once to a room whereas function and usage can appear more than once.

The FASUDIR energy data model contains the entity ‘Room’ as a Simulation Object Type. However, a further differentiation can be undertaken already in this step since ‘Domestic Room’ and ‘Non-domestic room’ are available as Simulation Object Types as well. The semantic properties of the room are subsequently attached to the Simulation Object Type ‘Room’ through input-specifications defined by the user. This concept enables the FASUDIR energy data model to specify the semantics of a ‘Room’ in other details compared to the CityGML Building Module.

DECISION SUPPORT METHODOLOGY

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Decision makers targets & objectives

Which targets and objectives are the main drivers for decision-makers in district retrofitting projects?

In order to tailor the methodology especially to the needs of decision-makers an analysis of the most important targets has been conducted. The results of the analysis have shown that the identified targets can be grouped into the three sustainability pillars under ecologic, economic and social targets.

Environmental targets in Europe are mainly set by the political Climate and Energy Policy Framework of the European Union. The EU commits to keep the climate targets agreed on in the Kyoto Protocol.

Furthermore the EU has set more stringent targets as fixed in the Kyoto Protocol. In the last EU summit on climate protection the EU declared the 40-27-27 targets. The 40-27-27 targets tend to reduce the GHG emissions by 40%, the energy demand by 27 % and to increase the share of renewables by 27 % until 2030 compared to 1990. Those targets can be applied to the building sector in district retrofitting projects. This would mean that each district retrofitting project seen as a global energy system should at least keep those targets in order to support the compliance to the EU 40-27-27 targets. However, environmental targets in general are not always the main drivers in district retrofitting projects from the decisions-makers perspective.

Compared to the economic targets they often play a tangential role especially if the decision-makers are private law entities. In this case the improvement of the environmental state of a district is only seen as positive side effect but not as the main-driver. Nevertheless, decision-makers from public entities are more ready to set environmental targets for their district retrofitting projects because they are not profit-oriented and have to take on the function of role model.

Beside the Environmental targets decision-makers in European district retrofitting projects consider social targets as crucial. According to the actual European Union strategies the social targets in the context of the district should strongly focus on issues like employment and housing, services to people and the fight against poverty and social exclusion.

Therefore, the following social targets have been identified as the most relevant for the FASUDIR methodology: • • • • •

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Avoid gentrification caused by energy retrofitting Improve district surroundings (green spaces, accessibility, heat island) Improve transport systems Support participation and local activities (vs “dormitory” neighbourhood) Improve safety and security

Gentrification is a process in which the district rapidly changes its character due to instability in the social mixture. The building development caused by the energy retrofitting process improves the thermal and visual comfort in the buildings which consequently can give a greater financial value to some districts, carried out for example by efforts to improve the living conditions, the location of prestigious projects, putting greens, or generally by increasing the attractiveness of the place. It can also affect in the changing of the social composition of the population living in the area. Changing the population living in the area is determined by economic factors. The result of this process is to change the nature of a typical residential area, inhabited by people with different levels of wealth, on the area inhabited largely by people with high incomes.

The negative aspects of gentrification have been found for example in rent prices. The increased rental fees caused by the retrofitting measures often create or accelerate gentrification processes. Especially older districts, once occupied exclusively by very low incomes and low income residents, are being inhabited by more affluent residents after an urban renewal. Increasing the displacement of original inhabitants can cause that displaced individuals may become homeless. Also a loss of social diversity can cause the formation of ghettos. For the decision makers identification of the likelihood of gentrification in districts is important to prevent many of the negative effects of gentrification.

Therefore, municipalities should have instruments like social housing promotion, grants and / or tax incentives for retrofitting measures in district with high likelihood for gentrification.

As most important driver of decision-makers the economic quality of energy retrofitting measures on building and district level must be named. Therefore economic issues like “Return on Investment”, “Payback Period” and the ”Investment Costs” mostly are the limiting factor in the selection of retrofitting measures. Based on interview results specific economic targets and priorities that drive their decisions could be identified. The financial targets therefore are mainly influenced by the ownership types of the considered buildings. While public owners like municipalities or central governments have less ambitious financial targets private building owners especially in building stocks that are leased have more ambitious targets regarding the ROI and the payback period.

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Constraints

The planning of district energy retrofitting concepts is a difficult and complex task. Especially the selection and application of proper retrofitting measures presents a major challenge for planners. Although a variety of different retrofitting technologies is theoretically available for buildings and districts the applicability of each technology in real life projects is often limited.

Because of the fact that each district and even each building in a district is an individual case a lot of available retrofitting technologies cannot be implemented due to constraints and restrictions in different fields. The main constraints that occur in district and building energy retrofitting projects can be defined and structured into the following categories: • Legal constraints • Technical constraints • Financial constraints • Environmental condition constraints Legal constraints are mainly caused by European or national laws, regulations and standards which settle the process of energy retrofitting of buildings and districts. For example in most of the European countries regulations for energy savings in buildings exist currently.

They were initiated by the European Building Directive (EPBD). Planners therefore have to consider the national energy saving ordinances in their projects. The planning concepts for energy retrofitting projects also are often affected by laws on cultural heritage protections or national and European standards which give guidelines for the planners. Therefore, planners of district retrofitting concepts have to be aware of all legal constraints in their countries before starting to plan the concept. Those legal constraints may give restrictions to many retrofitting technologies that are theoretically available on the market. For example, in some cases keeping the cultural value of the buildings and districts could be a restriction that will not allow the achievement of improvements to insulation of the building envelope or to installations of photovoltaics that in theory could be technically feasible. Also certain thicknesses of insulation materials may be restricted as their insulation effectiveness (max. u-values) is too low according to the national energy saving ordinances. Beside the legal constraints technical constraints are setting the main restrictions for the use of technologies in building energy retrofitting projects. Each retrofitting technology needs special requirements for its implementation which may not always be given by each building or the district.

For example if the planners want to use a geothermal heat pump with

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ground collectors the property on which the building is located must have enough space for laying the ground collectors. According to the needed output of the heat pump the space may not be available in dense urban areas. Moreover, the use of renewable energy supply systems like biomass boilers needs enough space to store the biomass.

The feasibility of solar energy systems on roofs and facades is also dependent on the solar radiation exposure of the area. For example in a district some roof areas can be shaded by other buildings or trees and the sun exposure can be lower even if the global solar radiation is high. Furthermore, there are often many unforeseeable technical constraints in energy retrofitting projects like the load capacity of the building structure or structural damages.

If technical constraints appear often it is possible to find a solution or to implement another retrofitting technology.

However, financial constraints are often the largest obstacles in energy retrofitting projects on building and district level. Planners often have to consider the financial situation of the building owners as well as the tenants in order to avoid negative social impacts like gentrification.

Depending on the type of the owners (private, public) also the economic efficiency of the retrofitting technologies is a big issue. Therefore, the financial constraints are setting main restrictions to the application of different retrofitting technologies. Compared to legal or technical constraints financial constraints cannot be generalized for different building types or a country. Instead they are always depending on the financial situation and the individual willingness of building owners to invest in energy retrofitting measures. Therefore, the special financial constraints of a project must be given by the stakeholders and entered by the planners themselves.

The last category of identified constraints are the environmental constraints which are often restricting the use of retrofitting technologies as they are depending on proper environmental conditions in the district. Most common are climatic conditions which are not suitable for the use of certain technologies like solar energy systems or wind power. The urban morphology or the condition of the ground also can set restrictions on the use of geothermal systems. The availability of biomass sources near the district can also be a limiting factor for the use of biomass boilers. The environmental conditions are mostly related to the whole district as they are not changing from building to building. Although in certain cases like solar energy potential they may be different for each single building.

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Financial issues

The IDST will not only address the definition of the district retrofitting project from the technical and legal point of view, but also will guide the user of the tool in the selection of most suitable financing mechanism. Therefore the FASUDIR methodology supports planners in finding suitable financing mechanisms for their created retrofitting variants in the IDST. The following financing opportunities will therefore be considered by the IDST:

1. Grants

Grants may be available at all stages for feasibility studies, proposal development, capital investment and maintenance expenses. They offer a subsidy to the total costs, but exist only because governments or other altruistic organisations wish to see particular innovations develop that would otherwise not be economically attractive. They will usually only cover part of the costs.

2. Loans

Loans imply debts that must ultimately be repaid, and on-going interest charges. Retail and commercial banks will generally lend, but at a price that depends upon perceived risks. They will want to see a business model that shows adequate “debt coverage”, i.e. a plan that shows how interest charges and debt repayment will be covered under normal and risky scenarios. Hence, lenders will often want to see co-funding by the owners and other stakeholders in the project.

Furthermore, in order to borrow at a reasonable rate, the lender may require collateral security, i.e. financial recourse to stakeholder assets in the case of default. In contrast, pure project finance, without any recourse to the stakeholder assets, but secured only against the anticipated savings is sometime known as “non-recourse financing” and will be more expensive. Finally, for energy efficiency, preferential loans may be available at a lower cost. This is where governments or NGOs make funds available to retail and commercial banks under a scheme to incentivise particular initiatives.

3. Loan guarantees

This is an ancillary financial product that can reduce the cost of debt finance. Essentially it involves another stakeholder to the project investment team, namely a loan guarantor.

The loan guarantor is usually a public body created to lower the cost of energy efficiency loans, back acting as a final guarantee that defaults will be avoided.

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4. Energy Performance Contracting

Energy Performance Contracting is usually undertaken by an ESCO, through a contractual obligation to implement the energy savings initiatives in return for a flow of payments from the building owner or end-user. To the extent that this flow of payments is less than the savings, it is attractive to the owner. Evidently the owner / end user is passing on some of the investment returns to the ESCO, but is avoiding the initial capital outlay.

5. Co-Investment

There are several initiatives around the world whereby municipalities or energy utilities assume the capital cost of retrofitting and place the charge on the property, to be recovered through the regular property tax-, or utility bill assessment and collection. Evidently, this is simply transferring the debt, but it may be an incentive for several reasons.

Owners may not want, or be able, to accumulate more bank debt, or the bank terms may be unfavourable. For commercial owners, this is an easy way to transfer the cost to the tenants.

6. Embedded revenue contributions

Many countries now encourage residential, commercial and industrial consumers to install solar, wind, biomass, micro-hydro and other renewable sources of electricity generation to reduce consumption of grid supplied energy and for sale back to the local distribution company, or, in the case of larger industrial units, to the wholesale market.

These feed-in tariff (FiT) arrangements vary according to technologies, vintage, length of term and size of connection. District level solutions have a lot to offer here as there are economies of scale in the provision of generating facilities and transaction costs.

7. Tax benefits

Fiscal measures are an important class of support and can relate to a reduced rate of tax for the owners, properties and / or contracting organisations, as well as specific tax and VAT benefits on the various cost or revenue elements. Evidently, they are idiosyncratic to individual EU member states, but are widely used as part of the business models.

The named financing mechanisms will be implemented in the IDST in a semi-automatic way and provide comprehensive support to the user. Financing mechanisms therefore need to be manually identified and entered by the user and later can be calculated and considered by the IDST for each variant. Hence, the users will have to search for the current financing schemes and their country specific conditions by themselves. The IDST supports the user in providing qualitative information on how to find the right financing scheme for a variant via the repository of financing schemes in the database.

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User case scenarios

For the FASUDIR IDST a variety of different user types have been identified. As district retrofitting projects in general involve many different stakeholders the IDST needed to be capable of all the different needed functionalities each stakeholder will need. In order to provide all these identified functionalities for the IDST the methodology is broadly based and can be used with highest flexibility.

The IDST provides support to the following user groups: • Planners / Technical Staff (coordinating the retrofitting project) • Stakeholders (partners involved in the retrofitting project) • Guests (external persons) The main user of the FASUDIR IDST will be professionals in the field of urban energy master planning who act as energy consultants. Those are planners or technical staffs who have the technical knowledge to create district retrofitting concepts and to manage the implementation phase as retrofitting managers. Those planners may be energy experts form architectural or engineering offices, employees of municipalities, ESCOs or large housing companies. The IDST provides for those experts a variety of different analysis tools and functions that allow the creation of all necessary data and results which are needed to plan and run a district retrofitting project in a professional way.

However, the professional consultants in district retrofitting projects are not able to act completely independent from the involved stakeholders in retrofitting project. These stakeholders are among others represents from the municipalities, ESCOs, financing bodies, investors, building owners and citizens. The stakeholders will escort the planners / technical staff over the whole process of the methodology in a retrofitting project and give their contributions or approvals for the different working steps and in different phases of a project. As the different stakeholders not always have the technical knowledge to create useful retrofitting variants they also can only be involved in the main decision steps (e.g. owners often have no technical knowledge).

As the contribution of all stakeholders is indispensable to achieve a smooth and successful project the IDST allows the flexible involvement of all stakeholders. Therefore the IDST provides different levels of user access rights by an advanced user account management via the web-platform. Each user group therefore can be assigned different access to the functions of the IDST. The central hub of the IDST for the

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stakeholder involvement will be a specially developed e-collaboration platform which allows the connection of different user to the IDST. As all retrofitting projects are individual cases the determination of the stakeholders will be decided for each project individually and can be set in a flexible way. The IDST therefore provides the possibility to accredit natural persons or entities as stakeholders in a retrofitting project via the web-interface accounts.

As the IDST includes a plain language user interface non-expert user like owners or facility managers of housing companies can use the IDST also to test different retrofitting measures for the buildings they are interested. In this case in the IDST it is possible to assign the rights to apply retrofitting interventions and conduct simulations to selected users for selected buildings. If owners or facility managers therefore can use the IDST to create further own variants based on the variants that have been created for the district retrofitting concept.

The IDST also allows guests, which are all natural persons that are only visiting the project website without being involved as partner or decision-makers in the retrofitting project, to use the IDST. Guest for example may be private owners, tenants or interested persons who do not want to create own variants but only want to get information or to view results. These users also can provide data to the planners and the IDST. Therefore, they will be able to fill a questionnaire about the buildings they own or they occupy or they can make suggestions what should be improved in the district. Guests also are able to access general information about the retrofitting project, the district, stakeholders, planning team, objectives, announcements of meetings and actions, public information workshops or further news. Guest also are able to browse through special information (e.g. repository of retrofitting technologies and financing mechanism, etc.).

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Methodology Implementation Overview

Diagnosis

IDST Support IDST Citymodel

FASUDIR KPIs

Analysis Tools KPIs Analysis Tool

FASUDIR Methodology GIS-Data

Data Collection

FASUDIR IDST

Preparation

On-Site Inspection Data Entry Process

Evaluation of Sustainability Condition District Level

Evaluation of Sustainability Condition Building Level

Surveys

Workshop

Stakeholders Participation

3 - 6 Month

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1 - 2 Month

Scenario Creation Decision-Making (Variant Assessment)

Decision-Making (Variant Creation)

Tool Showing Breakdown of Energetic Weak Points for Buildings

Genetic Optimization Tool

Electricity Related Synergies Tool

Heat Related Synergies Tool

Weighting System

Imple

Stored Variants

Creation of Energy Related Variants

R M

Ranking of Variants

Diagnosis Results Reduce Improve Energy Energy Consumption Efficiency

Inclusion of Renewables

Financial Schemes

2 - 3 Month

4 - 6 Month

SUDIR IDST

Preparation IDST Support

Analysis Tools

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ng sment)

Implementation

Final Update Tool

Stored Variants

Chosen Variant

Retrofitting Management

riants

Current Variant Status

KPIs Analysis Tool

End of Project

Current State Assessment

36 - ? Month

Preparation

Diagnosis 54

IDST Data Entry Mask

IDST Citymodel

Default Data Mapping Values

Preparation phase

The preparation is the first phase of the FASUDIR Methodology. It is a necessary part of the development and later application of the Decision Support Methodology because it provides the necessary information how to create a sufficient working basis for the end-user of the FASUDIR IDST. For the preparation phase strategies on how to gather the needed parameters and data under real conditions have been developed. For example “Building Height� was identified as a parameter that may be automatically gathered by the FASUDIR IDST after the Citymodel has been established. Of course the values can be gathered automatically from the database of the city model after they have been included there. But the main issue here is how the height data firstly will be collected and in which formats (analog, digital) it will be available. To be more specific in this question and to give advice to the end-user of the FASUDIR IDST the data collection phase as well as the minimum data requirements for the Decision Support Methodology have been defined.

One of the most important stages for the creation of a district retrofitting concept is the data collection stage. High quality and significance of the district retrofitting concept can only be achieved if it is planned on a solid database. Hence, all generated results, scenarios, variants and recommendations in such concepts are only as good as the used input data. If the used input data is very inaccurate or wrong, the results and recommendations derived from it will not be robust.

Thus, high attention must be given to the data collection phase and sufficient time must be planned for it. Irrespective of whether the planner is using specific software or not for the creation of a district retrofitting concept basic information has to be collected in the runup of the concept development phase. The use of software (GIS, Simulation Tools) is not compulsory and necessary to create a district retrofitting concept but may accelerate the collection and processing of the database significantly. Nevertheless, the necessary information in principle has to be collected manually by the planners of the district retrofitting concept. Although the planner of the district retrofitting concept will be supported by the use of software like the FASUDIR IDST, the data collection is mainly a manual matter and can never be fully automatized. The reason for this is that the data in most cases is not available at a certain place or managed by a central instance.

Rather it has to be collected together from several data providers comparable with putting together a puzzle, before it can be analysed or processed with software.

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Diagnosis phase

The second phase in the FASUDIR Methodology is the diagnosis phase which allows an evaluation of the current state and the definition of useful targets for a district retrofitting project. To allow the IDST user to evaluate the current sustainability condition at the investigated district, the user must be able to define the type of each building found in the district. Hence, the wide variety of building types found in a district, FASUDIR will in the first step allows the user to define the building type from one of four main categories: residential building (e.g. single family house), non-residential buildings (e.g. office), mixedused Buildings (different use types in one building) and Special building types (stadium, airport, etc.) and to set general building characteristics like year of construction.

Real district retrofitting projects have shown that the data collection phase requires the most time effort in the retrofitting concept creation.

Moreover, even after a long time of data collection a substantial part of the necessary data often cannot be raised by the planners. Especially for existing buildings the detection of the construction types is very difficult. Detailed plans often are not available as they got lost or they are not updated and therefore useless. Even if the plans would be available it is very difficult for planners to read out the data for 500 or 1000 buildings in a district as the time effort for this task would be untenable. Several studies and research projects have shown that the construction types for buildings in the same countries or regions and the same construction period very often share certain common characteristics. The reason for this is that the construction of buildings in all European countries underlies certain minimum legal and regulatory requirements for each construction period and building type. Therefore it is possible to derive commonalities for all building types according to their construction period and their construction site. FASUDIR will take advantage of this fact in order to substitute data which is not available or for which the time effort to collect is too high. Therefore, for all defined building types for the use in FASUDIR such default data has been collected from several studies Due to the fact that the simulation engine of the IDST needs a detailed thermal energy model a lot of further information had to be gathered compared to stationary energy calculation methods. For example the average density of the thermal mass of the buildings must be known in order to run a thermal simulation. Then, this must be a direct user input. But for example the

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percentage of glazing for different building types can be assessed from default values and identified for the FASUDIR building types. However, there is some mandatory information which cannot be derived from default values like year of construction or building types as they will determine the used default data. The gathered information will be used as input and from this pre-defined construction templates that will be used for the simulations in the IDST were created. Beside the thermal construction templates which are necessary for each specific country the IDST needs also default activity templates for the thermal simulation. For example a residential building will be simulated by the use of the default construction template for the country. However, it is also needed a default activity template which contains the user behavior, occupancy times, temperatures etc. Due to the fact that the user behavior or occupancy times are not as much depending on the local circumstances of each country as the constructions a default activity template for each FASUDIR building types will be used for all countries. Moreover, the FASUDIR IDST not only simulates the heat energy demand (thermal simulation) but also the electricity demand.

The IDST therefore also needs default values for the electricity consumption. For this the IDST will again take advantage of the already defined activity templates existing software modules which also include the necessary information.

The goal of FASUDIR is to provide the decision makers with a decision support tool that is easy to use and provide accurate results. Therefore, the data entry process is on the one hand, very user friendly, simple and time saving and on the other hand flexible and detailed enough to cope with the complexity of district retorting projects. The data entry process is divided into two main steps, namely district level related data and building level related data. On the district level data entry, the user can enter only district related data that are either necessary data to evaluate the district KPIs such as the statistical data, transport and energy infrastructure data. Here the user would be able to enter the data either by selecting from a drop-down list or by direct entry in the field or by defining a marker or point of interest on the district map and allocating attributes like its function to them.

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Decision-making phase Setting Targets

Before starting to create an energy retrofitting scenario for urban districts it is necessary to define clear and measurable targets that should be achieved in the district by the energy retrofitting. Without having clear measurable targets it is not possible to create sensible retrofitting scenarios because the scope is too large. Already the Roman Stoic philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca said 2000 years ago “If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favourable.� (Seneca).

In order to get a clear direction in which the energy retrofitting project for the district should be developed the target issues have to be transformed into measurable Key Performance Indicators In FASUDIR IDST the main stakeholders therefore will be asked before starting to create new retrofitting scenarios what S.M.A.R.T. targets they want to achieve (figure 20). Hence, the user will be able to select from a variety of pre-defined target issues the targets that should be achieved.

Creation of retrofitting variants In order to apply only useful and technically feasible retrofitting strategies to the selected buildings in a group it is essential to know which retrofitting measures work well or may not work for the buildings or whole groups of buildings. Even though planners of retrofitting variants may have a good knowledge about the feasibility of different retrofitting measures the Methodology supports and guides them in the selection process. Therefore, the IDST provides a tool box with several useful analysis tools that may help planners to evaluate the practicability of different solutions. The main challenge for planners in creating energy retrofitting variants for urban districts is to estimate the impacts of different solutions onto the buildings and the energy supplying infrastructure in the district. Those synergies and interactions between buildings and the district were analysed deeply and can be assessed using special analysis tools in the IDST. The synergies tool also shows how retrofitting measures on building level may affect solutions on district level and the other way round.

All buildings in a group and all groups in a district are connected to each other via different energy exchanging systems. These systems are the electricity grids or heat grids that supply the buildings with energy. Applying retrofitting measures to buildings can influence the efficiency and potentials of energy systems in the group or the whole district in positive or negative ways. For example improving the ener58

getic conditions of the building envelop of buildings in the district can lower the efficiency of an existing heat grid or on the implementation potential of a future heat grid. Also renewable energy improvements like installing photovoltaic systems on buildings may have negative effects on the electricity balance in the electricity grid if the balance between production and consumption is not in an optimum equilibrium.

In order to ensure the right chronological sequence to create a complete energy retrofitting scenario planners initially should apply strategies in the following order: 1. Reduction of energy consumption (consumer-driven) 2. Increasing the efficiency of the energy supply 3. Inclusion of renewable energy production

1. Analysis tool assessing the energetic weak points of buildings

In order to prioritize different retrofitting measures to reduce the energy consumption and to increase the energy efficiency of a building it is necessary to know which represent from an energy view the weakest points of a building. This means the FASUDIR IDST supports the users in identifying the building components or systems which cause the highest energy losses and therefore, have with high probability the greatest energy saving potential. Hence, with the Energetic Weak Points Tool the FASUDIR user is be able to plan the retrofitting measures in a way that allows exploiting the most effective energy savings. In buildings often the heating system has already been replaced by a new efficient one or the windows have been replaced by new efficient ones. In such cases it is not necessary to apply retrofitting measures on those building components or systems. But rather measures like insulation of exterior walls or installation of ventilation system with heat recovery would be the right choice. To detect those weak points the Energetic Weak Points Tool allows the user to get a ranked listing and a graphical overview of the building components and systems which are still causing high energy losses and high energy costs. Thus, the tool allows the user to analyse which components and systems cause the greatest heat losses and which systems cause the greatest electricity consumption.

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2. Tool assessing the feasibility of heat networks

The use of synergies between buildings is one of the most promising and useful key strategies for urban district retrofitting projects. One of the main advantages of the district approach compared to individual retrofitting measures on single buildings is the use of heat-related synergies by the connection of buildings. The key to evaluate heat-related synergies and interactions between buildings and their surrounding energy infrastructure is having knowledge about the heat demand of all defined groups and their containing buildings. This fact points out the importance for planners to know how retrofitting measures on buildings can affect existing heat grids or potentials of future constructed heat networks. Therefore, the planners of retrofitting variants for districts always must have the knowledge and the necessary tools to assess these correlations. Thus, the FASUDIR IDST provides a function that allows planners to assess the correlation between different retrofitting measures and the capability of heat networks for groups or the whole district. To achieve this FASUDIR provides a sufficient precise estimation of the capability of heat Networks in a district or city. Many studies have shown that the main cause variables to give an estimation of the capability of a heat network are the heat demand density and the connection density of the connected buildings in the district. By knowing the heat demand and connection density of a group or the whole district planners are able to evaluate if constructing a new heat network is feasible or if the efficiency of an existing heat network is sufficient. The function in the IDST calculates for user defined building groups or areas of the district a heat demand density map and visualizes it. By setting user defined thresholds the tool shows the user the areas of a district or a city in which the construction of a heat network can be feasible.

3. Analysis tool for the assessment of electricity related synergies and interactions between buildings

One of the main factors which limits the exploitation of the use of renewable energies in the production of electricity is the fact that renewable energy sources are climate dependent, and the electrical consumption is not. Thus, more often a mismatch between the supply and demand occurs and the generated energy can’t be fully used when the demand is there, which in turn has a negative effect on the reliability and the efficiency of the whole network. To overcome this challenge, planners need to be able to predict the electrical demand and production for the investigated site, so to introduce appropriate energy storage systems and/or smart grids.

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4. E-Collaboration Platform

The e-collaboration platform in the FASUDIR IDST is the central hub between the planners of a district retrofitting concept and all involved stakeholders and guests. The e-collaboration platform provides the framework to support the stakeholder involvement in each phase of the FASUDIR methodology. The platform is accessible via the main created project website of a district retrofitting project. Therefore, the e-collaboration platform enables the following features for the users: •

•

•

Online-Discussion-Forum: the core of the e-collaboration platform is an enriched and graphical online-discussion forum. The forum supports different user access rights according to their role in the retrofitting project. All user of the forum will be able to see all participating stakeholders and planners in the project and to contact them.

Online Retrofitting Questionnaire: the stakeholders are able to fill a pre-defined online questionnaire about their buildings by selecting their building in a map. The data of the questionnaires is stored separately in a questionnaires database. The selected building in the map in a questionnaire for a building is associated with the building records database to assign the questionnaires to the buildings in the city model. A link is implemented which allows the planners to view the results of the filled surveys during the data entry mode for each building in order to check the plausibility of the questionnaire results and to apply the results in the building data entry mode.

Online cloud-based data storage for file exchange: To support the methodology in the preparation phase for the data collection the e-collaboration provides an online cloud-based data storage to exchange files. The access rights of the storage can be defined for all users. The storage enables uploading and downloading of all different types of files. The storage can be used by all stakeholders to share relevant files in the data collection phase. It can for example be used by ESCOs to upload GIS files of existing heat networks or by municipalities to provide GIS data. Owners are able to upload plans of their buildings or BIM Models. The data can be accessed by the planners in order to create a district retrofitting concept. Results generated by the planners via the IDST also can be uploaded and provided to the stakeholders via the online cloud-based storage.

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5. Decision Support Tool

In general the main focus of the Decision-Support Tool is to allow supporting the later decision-making by conducting what if analysis on the ranking results of different variants based on different priority settings. The FASUDIR Decision Support Function can be used to enter the preferences of the planners and stakeholders for a district retrofitting project in the IDST. In order to simplify the determination of the stakeholder’s preferences the decision-support tool in FASUDIR provides a plain language entry mask on the user interface.

The entry mask asks the user to set different priority levels to the three sustainability categories and the sustainability KPIs which usually drive-decision-makers in retrofitting projects. However, the final decision-making in district retrofitting projects may be based on the opinions of several stakeholder involved in the project. Therefore the user of the Decision-Support Tool can collect the different opinions about the priorities via the e-collaboration platform (surveys) from different stakeholders and define an average priority for each KPI. This approach can reflect the best solution by ranking the variants according to the preferences of all involved stakeholders.

Assessment The goal of the assessment step in the Methodology is to allow the planners to compare the different useful and realistic retrofitting variants that have been created and to find the best suiting one. In the assessment step of the methodology the users is supported by a decision-support tool. In this function all gathered information, conducted upstream analysis and generated data outputs in the different steps of the variant creation are finally stored as a variant in a database.

The main input of the variants in the decision-support function is in the form of the KPIs results. The KPI results afterwards are used as core criteria in a value assessment to rank the different retrofitting 62

variants according to the preferences of different stakeholders and decision-makers. The value assessment is based on a Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis approach. Thus, planners of retrofitting concepts have a powerful and logic feature to support the complex decision-making process in energy retrofitting projects for urban districts. In order to be able to conduct a value assessment based on a Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis (MCDA) approach the valid variants are ranked according to the preferences and priorities of the decision-makers.

For all created retrofitting variants the different KPIs are calculated by the IDST. By setting the priorities for different sustainability issues the weights of the different KPIs in the value assessment are adjusted automatically. Issues that are not prioritized will have a lower weight but also will be taken into account in the value assessment in order to ensure a holistic and sustainable decision-support process. To set the priorities the IDST provides a Decision Support Tool which allows the FASUDIR Users to enter their priorities from a list through a plain language entry mask.

Implementation

The implementation phase is the most important phase for the stakeholder involvement.

Although, the stakeholders will already be involved in the retrofitting concept creation the implementation phase needs much more power of persuasion. Building owners often have a very positive attitude for the creation of district retrofitting concepts as they are not forced to undertake active measures in this stage of the project. In the implementation phase the owners have to implement the planned measures by themselves. This means they have to provide financial resources and they must prepare the construction process for the retrofitting measures.

The retrofitting manager here will only advice and coordinate the owners in the process. To convince the owners in the implementation phase needs a lot of work and high efforts for a proper communication.

Retrofitting managers often have to do home visits of private owners in order to give them consultation and to finally convince them to follow the retrofitting concept.

The retrofitting manager for example has to ask for reason why single owners do not want to participate in district solutions like heat networks or joint photovoltaic projects. The retrofitting concept and the decision-support tool will also support the retrofitting manager as they demonstrate the advantages of the district solution to the owners.

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In the implementation phase the best ranked variant of the district retrofitting concept has to be practically implemented. The implementation phase therefore is the longest phase in a district retrofitting project a can last from 2 years up to 20 years or even longer depending on the motivation of the stakeholders and owners. The implementation phase is compared to the concept creation phase even more complicated because several stakeholders have to be convinced to follow the created concept. In real districts there may be several different owners which all have to agree in order to realize the planned measures in the retrofitting concept. This would include to contact and coordinate all stakeholders, owners and commissioned building constructors in order to carry out the retrofitting in reality. The focus of the FASUDIR Methodology and the IDST therefore is not the complex work of planning the detailed retrofitting construction process.

This task should be done by a retrofitting manager who has the final responsibility for the coordination of the retrofitting construction process. However, FASUDIR supports the complex work of the retrofitting manager by the IDST and the related supporting tools. Due to the fact that the coordination of real district retrofitting projects is very complex all projects should include a retrofitting manager. He will be an energy expert (architect, engineer, urban planners, etc.) who has deep knowledge in the following fields: • • • • •

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Energy retrofitting and energy management of buildings Energy supply systems Urban development Public relations Public work, planner of the Concept

These main tasks are to advice to the owners in all relevant fields linked to the created district energy concept and to foster the practical implementation of the planned strategies and measures. The main tasks of the retrofitting manager are as follows: Initiate the detailed process steps for interdepartmental cooperation and networking between the involved stakeholders (building up networks) • Coordination and controlling of retrofitting measures of the stakeholders • Contact point for questions concerning the retrofitting concept, the financing and financing schemes (workshops, round tables) • Updating the current state of the district according to already implemented retrofitting measures and identification of obstacles • Updating the energy variants if unforeseen problems occur or major changes have happened (e.g. natural disaster, change in laws or regulations, etc.)

• Development of recommendations to improve the retrofitting progress (e.g. increasing tax incentives, organization of owner information workshops, etc.)

• Mediation between all stakeholders (owners, ESCOs, municipality) to optimize the retrofitting progress The scope of the FASDUDIR IDST in the implementation phase is to support the retrofitting manager in all his complex tasks. Therefore the IDST provides a Update function which allows updating and monitoring the current state of the district according to the already implemented retrofitting measures by the owners. The updated current state then can be compared to the targets that have been defined in the scenario in which the best energy variant has been created.

Thus, the retrofitting manager and the represents of the municipality have the possibility to check the current progress during the whole implementation phase. This is very important in order to control the retrofitting progress and to identify obstructions which have negative impacts of the retrofitting work. Based on the results of the final update tool the retrofitting manager will be able to develop suggestions for improvements and to recommend them to the stakeholders.

Moreover, the achieved successes in the retrofitting project can be shown and demonstrated to politicians, stakeholders and citizens by using the Update function. Furthermore, the IDST supports the retrofitting manager in improving the communication flows between the stakeholders in the implementation phase through the e-collaboration tool. Hence, the retrofitting manager is able to contact all stakeholders in an optimized way via the internet. This facilitates the mediation between different stakeholders which is very important in the implementation process of district solutions.

•

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Sensitivity analysis

In order to analyse and estimate how accurately in FASUDIR the used models describe the reality and what is the impact of the models uncertainty (structural or parametric) on outputs and results from the model an comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been carried out.

According to the literature review and practice, many uncertainties mainly can be identified related to the quality of data, simulation methodology and technical staff. The observed data may be uncertain due to measurement error, the need to use proxy data sources or calculation adjustments (e.g. for downscaling national level data to a city scale on a per- capita basis).Deterministic optimization models in particular are guilty of this, whereas stochastic algorithms such as genetic algorithms do provide a probabilistic solution set.

The main sources of uncertainties in the FASUDIR Project related to the risk associated with KPIs analysis can depend on such issues as the quality of the available and used data and the good scoping, pricing assumption and methods of calculations. For the analysis of KPIs the input of uncertainty parameters and stochastic methods, such as Monte Carlo simulations have been employed. The Monte Carlo method application in the evaluation of the uncertainty includes parameter characterization, simulation and sensitivity analysis. The Monte Carlo analysis, also referrers to a total sensitivity or uncertainty analysis, is characterized by a sample matrix where each of the parameters considered is modified for every sample generated based on a selected sample distribution technique.

In order to reduce the uncertainties the following steps different measures can be taken into account: • • • • • •

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Warn the user about the uncertainties that have been taken into account Define the uncertainties to determine the source, relative importance, and their impact to the project Establishment of indicators by user Use the weighting system to minimise the effects of uncertainties Find rational solutions Change the uncertain parameters for others

In fact it is very difficult to assess the uncertainties that may occur in district retrofitting concepts.

However, the goal of district retrofitting concepts and the district approach in general is not to provide as detailed results and calculations as possible but to help planners and stakeholders to find the right direction for the whole district. As the data collection in a district is not as detailed as for building retrofitting concepts the uncertainties are higher on district level. However, the time effort for the data collection can be reduced by up to 80% compared to a detailed data collection. Therefore the Pareto principle (also known as the 80–20 rule, the law of the vital few, and the principle of factor sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. If the pareto principle is applied to the data collection process for buildings and districts 80% of the accuracy can be reach with 20% of the time effort. If the planners need to have 100% accuracy the time effort for the data collection will be increased by 80%. FASUDIR therefore is created as a tool for high level insights and therefore takes advantage of the Pareto principle.

ARCHITECTURE OF THE IDST

IDST architecture overview

FASUDIR project is intended to support decision makers and other stakeholders by developing an Integrated Decision Support Tool (IDST) for the friendly and affordable sustainable energy retrofitting of buildings and districts. The FASUDIR IDST will be achieved through the development of an interactive cloud-based urban planning tool, which will: Evaluate retrofitting needs of a set of buildings that share a common urban area; • Guide the decision makers in the selection of the best energy retrofitting strategy to increase the sustainability of the whole district; • Consider the district as a whole energy system to improve the efficiency of the global energy balance.

The IDST will have three main blocks: the cloud database which hosts the City Model, the back engine which runs simulations to calculate KPIs and the front end, which is the direct interface for the user. Key elements of the FASUDIR IDST include: •

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A set of key performance indicators (KPIs) at the building and district scales, automatically calculated by the tool; • The use of advanced dynamic simulation tools to derive energy / carbon data; • A novel selection process for deriving potential interventions. The methodology will take into account the different urban typologies and priorities of the decision makers and lead to potential applicable business models; • The use of lifecycle tools to derive lifecycle cost and environmental impact data; • The use of user defined variant models to determine a range of optimum intervention combinations from the interventions pre-selected from a selection process; • The use of value analysis, using a system of user preference weightings, to determine the best solution from the range of optimum solutions; • The ability for users to enter measured data if available in order compare and calibrate the simulated model with the actual building; • A rich 3D interactive interface The FASUDIR IDST will be the convergence of Dynamic Simulation Modelling, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), cloud data storage and analysis, KPIs and value analysis tools.

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Link with the methodology The link between the Methodology and the IDST is important to ensure a smooth applicability of the FASUDIR approach in district retrofitting projects.

By incorporating the mentioned IDST supporting framework as well as the named specific analysis tools and functions defined in D4.4 the proper matching between the IDST and the methodology is ensured.

The FASUDIR IDST is required to simulate in detail at a small (building) scale yet and assimilate the best solution at the large scale (district).

The IDST must also interact via a web front-end i.e. communicate a wide range of complex data in a simple but powerful and effective visual manner. In order to achieve these wide and challenging goals it is important that key issues and realistic boundaries for the tool are defined, as they are key for the successful development of the tool.

Key issues and boundaries In the following, the key issues identified by the partners concerning the IDST tool are listed, explaining how they are going to be taken into account in the overall IDST architecture.

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The tool will be used by two primary stakeholder types: • Those with the permission to edit the city base 2D shape file geometry and building data (owners of the city model) • Those with the permission to edit their building data (not 2D geometry) only (owners of buildings or designers in the city model) Personal data will only be visible to record owners; however multiple buildings can be selected as a group (e.g. district, community, postcode) and the data aggregated and displayed obfuscated over the building group; CityGML LOD2 will be used for the city model resolution. The simulation geometry will be created by extrusion from the building footprint polygon (shape file) plus simple roof generation. Floors and windows will be based on record inputs only. It should be noted that thermal models created this way are “one space per floor” models and both thermal data and internal KPIs will represent average data only.

The IDST must take into account the different urban typologies and priorities of the decision makers. The proposed methodology guides decision makers to valid interventions, involves users in combining interventions and automates the value assessment of the results. This methodology will be reflected in the IDST tool.

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Interventions will be generic but how they are used can be targeted as part of the intervention definition.

The proposals include for staggering existing interventions prior to the study period so that lifecycle phases are synchronised.

Deliverables from earlier work packages suggest a wider dataset than anticipated from the Description of Work as parking spaces, bicycle spaces, transport nodes, microclimate related data, rental, income, noise etc. Simple fields can be added in to the proposed database to cater for such data; however such data is not simulated; Cost, lifecycle cost and LCA are a challenging aspect, not in its calculation but in creating viable source data (suitable for comparison) for the three validation sites. Therefore, a possible approach that has been proposed to cope with this limitation is to start from EU generic LCC / LCA (EN TC 350 compliant) data for the interventions that can then be factored for different countries; The three validation sites will provide real data which will allow predicted improvement of retrofit interventions to be compared with that of the real retrofit intervention. An attribute will allow variant records with a date span to enable this comparison ; The inclusion of business models in the IDST is discussed in the Description of Work. The partners agreed that these would be referenced from each intervention (one intervention references many business models). Stakeholder (user) information will be used to filter the business models to a valid list specific to the stakeholder. Partners have also agreed that the Business models will be qualitative i.e. text based. They will be generic taken from current EU wide practices; Visual representation should include metrics with breakdowns where appropriate e.g. pie chart for energy end use so that users can see significant issues / weak points.

Back-end

In the back end, calculations and simulations are carried out to provide the required output to the user through the front-end.

The simulation server is the core of the back end of the FASUDIR IDST as it enables all simulations and calculations to be carried out. It is based on the IES <VE> dynamic simulation software and utilises a simulation scheduler which carries out a number of functions including: • Interprets incoming job instructions from the front end UI • Receives record data from the City model database • Creates / maintains the simulation job queue • Creates batch instructions for each job • Returns data to the City model database following simulation The GIS location is used by the simulation scheduler to select a weather/ climate file from a database of weather files for simulation purposes.

The simulation server contains a number of datasets and simulation services that the scheduler can utilise depending on instructions received from the front end UI. The maintained datasets are: • Activity templates • Baseline construction templates • Baseline HVAC system templates • Interventions (object or group) and business models • Weather files The simulation services included in the IDST are: • Solar simulation • Thermal / energy / renewables simulation (can include simple solar) • LCC • LCA • Daylight (TBC) • Potable water • Value assessment The simulation server also ensures that reference datasets held on the simulation server are synchronized with the lists held on the front end UI.

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Front-end

The approach for user access, model visualisation, selection of simulation options and visualisation of results is detailed also through mock-ups showing how the final user interface of the tool might look like.

The front-end for the IDST will be an HTML based web application with 3D WebGL visualisation, where a user registers and selects buildings to â&#x20AC;&#x153;ownâ&#x20AC;?. From the front-end, the user edits default information and enters data into records. He/she can also choose combinations of interventions to simulate. Standard GIS / database tools will provide a means to update geometry and maintain the City model.

The City model database will send data to the front end visualisation at the request of user actions, to be visualised in an intuitive way in the user interface.

The core data to be used by the IDST are stored in a cloud based GIS CityGML database. It holds the City model (CIM), whose details are described in Deliverable D5.1. CityGML will be extended using the property feature to deliver the data requirements of the IDST. The City model holds records and record variants each describing a building or any city object that interacts in the FASUDIR context e.g. roads, parks etc. The records hold CityGML LoD 2 definitions that can be used to generate thermal model geometry for simulation purposes, data for simulation and/or data that can be used for non-simulation metrics.

The City model also holds district records i.e. a group of object records, so that a user can work at the building or district scale. At district scale non-building owners can explore interventions but not access record private data; The database has associated tables of data for default data, interventions, business models etc and measured / metered data (down to hourly resolution) is held on the record or a related table. A mapping is used to populate (in the first instance) default record entries to building archetypes (templates), but users can over-write such default selections if needed. Functions are used on demand to determine aggregated / non-simulated KPIs without simulation.

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Project Partners TECNALIA Research & Innovation Spain www.tecnalia.com ACCIONA Instalaciones SA Spain www.acciona.es Dâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Appolonia S.p.A. Italy www.dappolonia.it ABUD Mernokiroda KFT Hungary www.abud.hu Consorcio de la Ciudad de Santiago Spain www.consorciodesantiago.org

iiSBE ITALIA R&D

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iiSBE Italia R&D srl Italy www.iisbeitalia.org

Munich University of Applied Sciences Germany www.hm.edu Integrated Environmental Solutions LtD United Kingdom www.iesve.com Geonardo Environmental Technologies LtD Hungary www.geonardo.com CalCon Deutschland AG Germany www.calcon.de London Business School United Kingdom www.london.edu ACCIONA Infraestructuras SA Spain www.acciona.es

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Unionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement 609222.

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