Coconino County Place Profile Prepared by Chieh Yang March 19, 2018
Executive Summary Coconino County is located in the north of Arizona, shown in Figure 1, with the Flagstaff as its city seat. This report examines data of Coconino County, comparing them to its region and the nation. The report analyzes the overall demographic and economic trend of Coconino County roughly from 1950 to 2016. For the demographic part, this report studies at the trends of population growth, race, and ethnicity, age-sex distribution, migration, and commuting flow. For the economic part, unemployment rate and industry mix are examined. This report concludes that Coconino County has stayed isolated from its region and the nation in both demographic and economic aspects. Its population and economy had remained stagnant since 1950, and the trends are estimated to stay constant in the following years. From 1950 to 2010, the population had been growing fast in Coconino County but the growth stabilized in1990, while the population of the region has been still rapidly increasing. The population of Coconino County was 135,000 in 2010. Coconino County has a larger population of Native Americans of 30%, which is 25% higher than Arizona’s. The race and ethnicity markup had stayed stable from 2010 to 2016 with approximately 63% white and 28% indigenous. The population of the age of 20-24 had grown 4% from 2010 to 2016 with the shrinking population of the age 30 to 49. The age-sex distribution of Coconino County had been constrictive, while the region had the trend gone from constrictive to stationary. In terms of commuting, 90% of the population work in Coconino County commute within the county and 90% of the workforce also reside in the county. Coconino County has approximately 0% immigration and emigration in 2010. For economic aspects, Coconino County has specialized in tourism and government, and the trend has been stable, with 18% and 23% of the total employment in both 2001 and 2016. The shift-share analysis shows that the economy in Coconino has performed better the national level which results from its higher portion of employment in government. In summary, there are three major factors causing stagnation of Coconino County. The first one is that Coconino County sits far away from the major metropolitan area, which makes it hard to interact with other economies. This, in turn, results in its enclosed economy and 90% of the population commuting within the county. The second one is its ample natural resources, which make it one of the biggest tourist attractions in the world. Also, it means Coconino County needs more government workforce to support the national park and forests, which made the economy in Coconino unlikely to get affected by broader economic trend and had stayed stable in the past and predictably in the future. The third factor is the relatively larger Native American population in Coconino County. Native American tend to be more attached to their tribes, and it results in its within-county commuting trend and low immigration and emigration of the Coconino County. Furthermore, it also results in higher poverty and unemployment rate by observing the national statistic that Native Americans are relatively poorer and more likely to be unemployed.
Figure 1. Map of Coconino County and its Region
ÂŻ
Neveda Utah Washington
San Juan
Kane
I15
Apache Coconino
Mohave
Arizona
Navajo
Yavapai
California
I40
New Mexico
I17
La Paz
Gila
Gila I10
Graham Yuma
Mariocpa Pinal
I8
Legend
Pima
Cochise I19
Santa Cruz
Coconino Countyselection Indian_Reservations Rail
CLASS
Counties within the Region
I Urban Area Nation Boundary
Indian Reservation
Coconino
Greenlee
County Boundary Interstate Railway
Region selection selection Region Region selection States
1
0
25
50
100 Miles
Backgorund of Coconino County Coconino County sits in Arizona State with the population of 134, 795. (US Census, 2010) It has the area of 18,661 square miles, which makes it the second largest county in the US. Its city chair is Flagstaff, located in the south of Coconino County, where the interstates I40 and I17 crossed. Flagstaff has the population of 71,459 in 2010, which accounts for 53% of the population of Coconino County. This report defines its region by the commuting trend which will be discussed in the following section. Its region includes Maricopa County, Navajo County, and Yavapai County, as shown in Figure 2. Coconino County is the home to Grand Canyon National Park, which received a large number of visitors every year. It had about six million visitors in 2016. (NPS, 2107) Other retreats in Coconino County include four national monuments, and portions of four national forests, which make the economic drives of Coconino County leisure related industries such as tourism and hospitality and government jobs managing all national retreats. (Coconino County, 2015) There is 38% of the total area of Coconino County overlapped with federally designated Indian reservation, as shown in Figure 2. This means there are a larger number of Native Americans residing in Coconino County. 88% of Native Americans in Coconino are Navajo. Native Americans account for 30 % of total population of Coconino County. (U.S. Census, 2016)
Coconino’s Region Includes Maricopa, Navajo, and Yavapai County This report looks at the Coconino County and its region, which includes Maricopa County, Navajo County, and Yavapai County. The major metropolitan area is located in Maricopa County with the city of Phoenix as the local economic center. The population of each county is shown in Table 1. Maricopa has more than ten times of the population compared to the other county in the region, which accounts for about 90% population of the region.
Table 1. Population of the Region from 1960 to 2010
Population of Maricopa County accounts for 90% population of the region Year 1950
Coconino County, AZ Maricopa County, AZ
1960
1970
2000
2010
23,910
41,857
48,326
1980
75,008
1990
96,591
116,320
134,421
331,770
663,510
967,522
1,509,052
2,122,101
3,072,149
3,817,117
Navajo County, AZ
29,446
37,994
47,715
67,629
77,658
97,470
107,449
Yavapai County, AZ
24,991
28,912
36,733
68,145
107,714
167,517
211,033
410,117
772,273
1,100,296
1,719,834
2,404,064
3,453,456
4,270,020
Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2
Continual Growing Population , Slower than the Region, since 1950 The population had continued to grow from 1950 in Coconino County and its regions. Table 1 shows that the largest population is in Maricopa County, of which the population is 28 times larger than the Coconino County. Figure 2 shows that Maricopa County had been leading the trend of population growth from 1970 within the region. The population had continued to grow rapidly since 1950. Figure 2 also shows that Coconino County had followed the trend of the region but in slower and stabler pace.
Figure 2. Indexed Population Growth from 1950 to 2010
Population of Coconino had stably grown following the trend of the region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The Composition of Racial and Ethnic Group Had Stayed Stable Coconino has a 62% White and 28% Indigenous population through the year from 2010 to 2016. The trend of the racial share had stayed constant. Figure 3. shows the composition of racial groups and its changes from 2010 to 2012-2016ACS, which indicates that the share of each group has stayed stable from 2010 in both Coconino County and its region. It also shows that Coconino County has 25% higher share of the indigenous population than its region resulted from 38% of the area of Coconino County is overlapped with Native Americans’ Tribes.
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Table 2. shows that the composition of ethnicity had also stayed stable. Coconino County had had the about 10% lower share of the Hispanic population than its region, which increased by 3% from 2000 to 2010 but decreased by 0.4% from 2010 to 2012-2016 ACS.
Figure 3. Population Changes by Race Share
The share of race had stayed stable for both Coconino County and Its Region from 2010 to 2012-2016ACS
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Table 2. Ethnicity Share of Coconino County and its Region (2000, 2010, 2012-2016ACS) Hispanic Share had grown about 3% since 2000 and had stayed stable After Ethnicity Share of Coconino County and its Region (2000, 2010, 2012-2016ACS) Coconino County, AZ 2012-2016 2000 2010 ACS
Not Hispanic Hispanic
89.1% 10.9%
85.9% 14.1%
Region 2000
86.3% 13.7%
76.8% 23.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4
2010
71.6% 28.4%
2012-2016 ACS
71.5% 28.5%
The Age-Sex Distribution and Its Changes Since 2000 Figure 4 shows that the age-sex distribution of Coconino County had been constrictive, while the region had the trend gone from constrictive to stationary. The shapes of age pyramids are similar from 2000 to 2012-2016ACS for Coconino County, as shown in Figure 4. It indicates that the age-sex distribution had also stayed stable throughout the years. However, the age-sex distribution of Coconino County had been constrictive, while the region had the trend gone from constrictive to stationary. Also, the population of the age of 20-24 had grown 4% from 2010 to 2010 with the shrinking population of the age 30 to 49 for Coconino County. As for its region, the age pyramid shows that the population of the age above 55 had grown, which means that the population had been aging in the region. Figure 4 also shows that the share of age from 30 to 54 has decreased from 2000 in Coconino County, while the share of age from 50 to 69 has increased in its region, which may indicate the trend of decreasing of the workforce population and increasing elderly.
Trends of Population Change As to Natural Increase and Migration Table 3 shows the trend of population changes from 2010 to 2014 regarding nature increase and migration both internally and internationally in Coconino County and its region. Coconino County shared similar trend within the region and Arizona State on birth and death rate. However, the net migration rate could be negligible for Coconino County. It was -0.8% in Table 3 but 1% in Table 4, which may result from the way of collecting data and it could seem as approximate none migration from 2009 to 2014. It means that the population changes only influenced by natural increase, and its population growth had stayed stable. It indicates that only limited number of people moved out and moved in from the 2009 and 2014, which means there had been no intention to moved from the perspective inside and outside the county.
5
Figure 4. Population Changes by Age and Sex Shown by Age Pyramids
The Share had been Constant while the age between 30-49 had shrunk by 5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
Table 3. Population Change as to Nature Increase and Migration (April 2010 to July 2014)
Similar nature increase and approximately 0% of net migration rate in Population Change as to Nature Increase and Migration Coconino County comparing to the region (April 2010 to July 2014)
Coconino Maricopa Navajo Yavapai population in 2010 Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Increase Rate Internal Migration Rate International Migration Rate Net migration Rate Total amount of change Rate
134,421 3,817,117 107,449 211,033 5.5% 6.1% 6.5% 3.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.7% 5.3% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% -1.6% -1.2% 2.8% -2.4% 4.8% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% -0.8% 3.8% -2.3% 5.1% 2.3%
6.9%
0.6%
3.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Table 4. Intraregional Migration of Coconino County (2009-2014) Intraregional Migration of Coconino County, AZ (2009-2014) Maricopa County, AZ Navajo County, AZ Yavapai County, AZ Sum of counties
Immigration 3,975 425 535 12,102
Emigration 3,234 253 1,255 10,846
Net Flow=Immigration-Emigration Immigration: Numbers of migrants from other county to Coconino County Emigration: Numbers of migrants from Coconino County to others
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Net Inflow 741 172 (720) 1,256
Region
Arizona
4,270,020 12,784,034 6.0% 5.8% 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 3.6% 2.7% 6.5%
5.2%
Stable Commuting Trend of Coconino County From Table 5 and Table 6, the commuting trend had been staying stable from 1990 to 20092013ACS, which fluctuated within 3% for both Workers commuting within or to Coconino County and residents commuting within or to Coconino County. They also indicate that most people lived in Coconino County worked there, which means Coconino County had the job capacity to keep its residents working within the county. This means that job supplies had been adequate for the Coconino County’s residents and there had little workforce demand for people live outside the county. Table 5. Workers commuting within or to Coconino County
Nearly 90% of the workers of Coconino County lived in Coconino County Workers commuting within or to Coconino County, AZ By county, 1990, 2000, and 2009-2013ACS Cumul FIPS
Perc of
1990
Perc of
Cumul
Perc of
Ttl 2000 2000 Perc Ttl 2009-2013 County of Residence 1990 2000 2009-2013 Ttl 1990 Perc 04005 Coconino County, AZ 38,765 49,879 58,573 89.6% 89.6% 89.3% 89.3% 92.1% 04025 Yavapai County, AZ 1,906 3,333 2,147 4.4% 94.0% 6.0% 95.3% 3.4% 04013 Maricopa County, AZ 692 630 796 1.6% 95.6% County, 1.1% AZ96.4% 1.3% Workers commuting within or to Coconino 04017 Navajo County, AZ 691 By county, 628 5932000,1.6% 97.2% 1.1% 97.5% 0.9% 1990, and 2009-2013ACS Cumul 49025 Kane County, UT 364 385 306 0.8% 98.0% 0.7% 98.2% 0.5% Perc of 1990 Perc of Cumul Perc of 04015 Mohave County, AZ 110 165 256 Ttl 1990 0.3% Perc 98.3% Ttl 2000 0.3% 200098.5% 0.4% FIPS Perc Ttl 2009-2013 County of Residence 1990 2000 2009-2013 04001 Apache County, AZ 87 164 55 0.2% 98.5% 0.3% 98.8% 0.1% 04005 Coconino County, AZ 38,765 49,879 58,573 89.6% 89.6% 89.3% 89.3% 92.1% 04019 Pima County, AZ 81 68 87 0.2% 98.7% 0.1% 98.9% 0.1% 04025 Yavapai County, AZ 1,906 3,333 2,147 4.4% 94.0% 6.0% 95.3% 3.4% 35045 San Juan County, NM 58 14 42 0.1% 98.8% 0.0% 98.9% 0.1% 04013 Maricopa County, AZ 692 630 796 1.6% 95.6% 1.1% 96.4% 1.3% 04007 Gila County, AZ 43 26 99 0.1% 98.9% 0.0% 99.0% 0.2% 04017 Navajo County, AZ 691 628 593 1.6% 97.2% 1.1% 97.5% 0.9% 49037 San Juan County, UT 43 56 50 0.1% 99.0% 0.1% 99.1% 0.1% 49025 Kane County, UT 364 385 306 0.8% 98.0% 0.7% 98.2% 0.5% 49035 Salt Lake County, UT 30 27 10 0.1% 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 0.1% 04015 Mohave County, AZ 110 165 256 0.3% 98.3% 0.3% 98.5% 0.4% Other Counties 406 479 559 04001 Apache County, AZ 87 164 55 0.2% 98.5% 0.3% 98.8% 0.1% Total Workers of Coconino 43,276 55,854 63,573 04019 Pima County, AZ 81 68 87 0.2% 98.7% 0.1% 98.9% 0.1% 35045 San Juan County, NM 58 14 42 0.1% 98.8% 0.0% 98.9% 0.1% 04007 Gila County, AZ 43 26 99 0.1% 98.9% 0.0% 99.0% 0.2% Residents of Coconino County, AZ, commuting from or to other Counties 49037 San Juan County, UT 43 56 50 0.1% 99.0% 0.1% 99.1% 0.1% By county, 1990, 2000, and 2009-2013 Cumul 49035 Salt 30 27 10 0.1% 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 0.1% Table 6. Lake County, UT Perc of 1990 Perc of Cumul Perc of Other Counties 406 479 559 Ttl 1990 Perc Ttl 2000 2000 Perc Ttl 2009-2013 FIPS County of Work Place from 1990 2000 2009-2013 Workers to Coconino County Total Workerscommuting of Coconino 43,276 or 55,854 63,573 04005 Coconino County, AZ 38,765 49,879 58,573 93.7% 93.7% 91.9% 91.9% 92.5% 04017 Navajo County, AZ 698 1,053 1,109 1.7% 95.4% 1.9% 93.8% 1.8% 04025 Yavapai County, AZ 1,052 911 1.6% 97.0% 1.9% 1.4% Residents 672 of Coconino County, AZ, commuting from or to other95.8% Counties 04013 Maricopa County, AZ 354 859 912 0.9% 97.9% 1.6% 97.3% 1.4% By county, 1990, 2000, and 2009-2013 Cumul 49025 Kane County, UT 108 197 317 0.3% 98.1% 0.4% 97.7% 0.5% Perc of 1990 Perc of Cumul Perc of 04001 Apache County, AZ 97 40 101 0.2% 98.4% Ttl 2000 0.1% 200097.8% 0.2% Perc Ttl 2009-2013 FIPS County of Work Place 1990 2000 2009-2013 Ttl 1990 Perc 04015 Mohave County, AZ 85 144 357 0.2% 98.6% 0.3% 98.0% 0.6% 04005 Coconino County, AZ 38,765 49,879 58,573 93.7% 93.7% 91.9% 91.9% 92.5% 32003 Clark County, NV 54 87 31 0.1% 98.7% 0.2% 98.2% 0.0% 04017 Navajo County, AZ 698 1,053 1,109 1.7% 95.4% 1.9% 93.8% 1.8% 04019 Pima County, AZ 47 65 60 0.1% 98.8% 0.1% 98.3% 0.1% 04025 Yavapai County, AZ 672 1,052 911 1.6% 97.0% 1.9% 95.8% 1.4% 06037 Los Angeles County, CA 38 18 6 0.1% 98.9% 0.0% 98.4% 0.0% 04013 Maricopa County, AZ 354 859 912 0.9% 97.9% 1.6% 97.3% 1.4% 35045 San Juan County, NM 38 80 60 0.1% 99.0% 0.1% 98.5% 0.1% 49025 Kane County, UT 108 197 317 0.3% 98.1% 0.4% 97.7% 0.5% Other Counties 411 809 859 04001 Apache County, AZ 97 40 101 0.2% 98.4% 0.1% 97.8% 0.2% Total Residents of Coconino 41,367 54,283 63,296 04015 Mohave County, AZ 85 144 357 0.2% 98.6% 0.3% 98.0% 0.6% 32003 Clark County, NV 54 87 31 0.1% 98.7% 0.2% 98.2% 0.0% 04019 Pima County, AZ 47 65 60 0.1% 98.8% 0.1% 98.3% 0.1% 06037 Los Angeles County, CA 38 18 6 0.1% 98.9% 0.0% 98.4% 0.0% 35045 San Juan County, NM 38 80 60 0.1% 99.0% 0.1% 98.5% 0.1% Other Counties 411 809 859 Total Residents of Coconino 41,367 54,283 63,296
Cumul 2009-2013 Perc
92.1% 95.5% 96.8% 97.7% 98.2% Cumul 2009-201398.6% Perc 98.7% 92.1% 98.8% 95.5% 98.9% 96.8% 99.0% 97.7% 99.1% 98.2% 99.2% 98.6% 98.7% 98.8% 98.9% 99.0% 99.1% 99.2% Cumul 2009-2013 Perc
92.5%
Nearly 92% of the residents of Coconino County worked in Coconino County 94.3%
8
95.7% 97.2% 97.7% Cumul 2009-201397.8% Perc 98.4% 92.5% 98.4% 94.3% 98.5% 95.7% 98.5% 97.2% 98.6% 97.7% 97.8% 98.4% 98.4% 98.5% 98.5% 98.6%
Tourism and Governments had stayed being Major Industries in Coconino Table 7 shows that the major industry in Coconino County had been Public sectors of 23% in both 2001 and 2015. There had also been large employment in Accommodation and food services with about 15%. Table 7 also shows that the composition of employment share in sector had stay constant between 2001 and 2015. Other than construction, other industries had fluctuated within 1%. Construction had declined by 2%. Table 8 shows more detail about the dominated industry in Coconino County which are Food services and drinking places and Accommodation. Since Coconino had been the destination for tourists, the data in Table 8 also supports this fact. It shows that Coconino County had two times more per capita than the National one in Accommodation. It also shows that Coconino County has a larger portion of employment in public sectors than the US. Table 10 shows, at 2-digit level, that the economy of Coconino County concentrated on Tourism and Healthcare and social assistance with total 33.1% employment combined, which had the breakdown of 14.3% in Healthcare and social assistance and 18.8% in Accommodation and Food Service. Its region also concentrated on Health Care with 13.2 % employment but not as high as Coconino County’s on Tourism with 9% of the total employment. The third high concentration of Coconino County was Retail Trade with 12.2% of the employment. Its region shared the similar proportion of Retail Trade of 12.3%. Table 1 also shows that location quotient of Coconino County in Accommodation and Food Service and Art, Entertainment, and Recreation were both above 2. It demonstrates that Coconino County had the twice higher proportion of these tourism-relating industries than the US, which indicates Coconino County specialized in tourism. However, Coconino County didn’t specialize in Healthcare and social assistance because its location quotient is 0.99, which means it shared the similar proportion in this industry with the US. Table 11 shows, at 3-digit, the employment distribution of the 17 top industries of the region. Coconino County has 11.5% of employment on Food services and drinking places and 7.3 % Accommodation. Moreover, its location quotient of Accommodation was 5.14, which again demonstrates that Coconino County highly specializes in tourism with detailed industry level. Figure 6 shows, from 1970 to 2005, the industry mix had performed mostly positive compared to the national, and the regional shift of Coconino County had performed much better than the nation for most of the years. Figure 6 shows that Accommodation and food services had dropped down during 2008 and 2009 while public sector still growing through the time indicates that the reason that the economy in Coconino County had performed better than the US is its higher proportion of employment in Public Sectors, which is also shown in the breakdown of shift share in Table 10.
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Table 7. The Change of the Share between 2001 and 2015 of Major Industries in Sector of Coconino County and Its Region
The Composition of Employment Share in Sector Had Stay Constant The Change of Major Industries in Sectors of Coconino County and Its Region (2001 and 2015) 2001 Coconino
Total employment (number of jobs) Wage and salary employment Proprietors employment Farm proprietors employment Nonfarm proprietors employment Farm employment Nonfarm employment Private nonfarm employment Forestry, fishing, and related activities Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, and tech. services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative & support & waste manag. Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Government and government enterprises Federal, civilian Military State and local State government Local government
66,819
2015
Region 2,076,994
Coconino 83,636
Change
Region 2,660,376
Coconino Region 25.2%
28.1%
82.0%
83.8%
79.4%
77.8%
-2.6%
-6.0%
18.0%
16.2%
20.6%
22.2%
2.6%
6.0%
0.4%
0.2%
2.6%
0.3%
2.2%
0.1%
17.6%
16.0%
18.0%
21.9%
0.4%
5.9%
0.5%
0.5%
2.7%
0.5%
2.2%
0.0%
99.5%
99.5%
97.3%
99.5%
-2.2%
0.0%
75.9%
88.3%
74.3%
89.4%
-1.6%
1.1%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.0%
-0.1%
5.6%
7.9%
3.6%
5.3%
-2.0%
-2.6%
4.8%
7.9%
5.7%
5.0%
0.9%
-2.9%
1.2%
4.3%
1.8%
3.6%
0.6%
-0.7%
12.2%
11.4%
10.6%
11.0%
-1.6%
-0.4%
3.0%
3.2%
2.3%
3.4%
-0.7%
0.2%
1.1%
2.4%
0.8%
1.7%
-0.3%
-0.7%
2.2%
6.3%
1.9%
7.2%
-0.3%
0.9%
3.7%
4.6%
4.2%
6.1%
0.5%
1.5%
3.8%
6.3%
3.7%
6.6%
-0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
3.1%
9.2%
3.1%
8.7%
0.0%
-0.5%
0.9%
1.2%
1.4%
2.4%
0.5%
1.2%
10.0%
7.6%
11.8%
10.8%
1.8%
3.2% 0.3%
3.4%
1.9%
3.5%
2.3%
0.1%
15.1%
7.5%
14.4%
7.8%
-0.7%
0.3%
4.6%
4.8%
4.2%
5.3%
-0.4%
0.5%
23.6%
11.2%
23.0%
10.1%
-0.6%
-1.2%
4.9%
1.2%
3.2%
1.0%
-1.7%
-0.2% -0.2%
0.4%
0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
-0.1%
18.3%
9.3%
19.4%
8.6%
1.1%
-0.8%
8.1%
2.2%
9.9%
2.1%
1.8%
-0.1%
10.2%
6.8%
9.5%
6.5%
-0.7%
-0.3%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Table 8. Detailed Industries Data for 2-digit Industry of Coconino County in 2015 Coconino County has 1.67Data time employment capita ofCounty the USinin2015 Public Detailed Industries forof2-digit Industry per of Coconino
Sector
Private Estab. Employ.
Public
Employment per 10,000 c apita County
Agric ulture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extrac tion Utilities Construc tion Manufac turing
Estab. Employ.
US
Employment per 10,000 c apita County
US
16
100
7
39
-
-
-
-
5
107
8
23
-
-
-
-
15
199
14
17
4
-
-
-
320
2,084
150
201
5
150
11
10
91
4,327
311
384
-
-
-
5 -
Wholesale trade
113
1,048
75
184
-
-
-
Retail trade
486
7,367
530
489
-
-
-
-
90
1,170
84
144
19
323
23
21
Transportation and warehousing Information Financ e and insuranc e
34
453
33
86
2
117
627
45
179
1
1
-
-
0
0
Real estate and rental and leasing
162
651
47
65
-
-
-
-
Professional and tec hnic al servic es
313
1,194
86
269
3
22
2
4
-
-
-
-
-
Management of c ompanies and enterprises
15
132
9
69
-
Administrative and waste servic es Educ ational servic es
162 36
1,868 568
134 41
275 85
8 19
-
Health c are and soc ial assistanc e
330
8,658
622
574
7
4
0
270
Arts, entertainment, and rec reation
91
1,806
130
68
12
619
45
30
Ac c ommodation and food servic es
450
11,370
817
404
3
-
Other servic es, exc ept public administration
236
1,279
92
135
3
452
Unc lassified
-
-
32
3
68
64
5
8
-
-
-
-
Public administration
-
-
-
-
91
3,308
238
104
Undisc losure Public Sec tors*
-
-
-
-
10,444
751
-
3,233
3,696
Total Total in percentage
44,972 74.5%
-
15,423 25.5%
1,109
662
Table 9. Industries Data of Coconino County in 2015 Detailed Industries Data for 15 Detailed Largest 3-digit Industry for 15 Largest 3-digit Industry Subsectors of Coconino County in 2015 Total Employ.
Private Estab. Employ.
Employment per 10,000 capita
County Food services and drinking places Accommodation Ambulatory health care services Administrative and support services Food and beverage stores General merchandise stores Amusements, gambling, and recreation Social assistance Specialty trade contractors Professional and technical services Justice, public order, and safety activities Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks Membership associations and organizations Motor vehicle and parts dealers Administration of environmental programs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6,943 4,427 2,869 1,809 1,724 1,502 1,378 1,376 1,308 1,194 986 934 902 890 768
301 149 261 155 49 29 56 45 215 313 16 39 43 -
6,943 4,427 2,869 1,809 1,724 1,502 1,378 1,376 1,308 1,194 315 450 890 -
11
499 318 206 130 124 108 99 99 94 86 23 32 64 -
Public
Employment
Estab. Employ. per 10,000 capita
US
344 60 214 262 96 99 49 107 127 269 5 42 60 -
County
16 8 1 10
986 619 452 768
71 45 32 55
US
43 2 0 18
Table 10.
Employment Location Quotients at 2-digit Level of Coconino County, its Employment Location Quotients Region and the USatin 2015Level of Coconino, its Region and the US in 2015 2-digit Coconino Employment
Total
60,395
Industry at 2 digit level Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Wholesale Trade Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration Unclassified Manufacturing Retail trade Transportation and warehousing
100 107 199 2,234 1,048 453 628 651 1,216 132
Region %
Employment
%
1,963,964
0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 2.0% 0.2%
1,868 3.1% 568 0.9% 8,662 14.3% 2,425 4.0% 11,370 18.8% 1,731 2.9% 3,308 5.5% 64 0.1% 4,327 7.2% 7,367 12.2% 1,343 2.2%
US
6,784 3,687 15,891 104,456 75,868 38,007 124,459 39,373 103,839 27,929
Employment
139,491,699
0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 5.3% 3.9% 1.9% 6.3% 2.0% 5.3% 1.4%
186,636 9.5% 130,869 6.7% 258,440 13.2% 33,836 1.7% 194,903 9.9% 53,524 2.7% 81,973 4.2% 6,526 0.3% 123,291 6.3% 242,293 12.3% 68,634 3.5%
1,255,846 752,141 808,885 6,603,670 5,874,599 2,897,488 5,770,137 2,136,255 8,725,796 2,197,652
%
Location Location Quotient Quotient (Coconino/US) (Region/US)
0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 4.7% 4.2% 2.1% 4.1% 1.5% 6.3% 1.6%
0.18 0.33 0.57 0.78 0.41 0.36 0.25 0.70 0.32 0.14
0.38 0.35 1.40 1.12 0.92 0.93 1.53 1.31 0.85 0.90
8,874,589 6.4% 12,313,741 8.8% 20,282,539 14.5% 2,546,157 1.8% 13,030,233 9.3% 4,348,055 3.1% 7,242,529 5.2% 240,460 0.2% 12,339,633 8.8% 15,704,487 11.3% 5,542,106 4.0%
0.49 0.11 0.99 2.20 2.02 0.92 1.05 0.61 0.81 1.08 0.56
1.49 0.75 0.91 0.94 1.06 0.87 0.80 1.93 0.71 1.10 0.88
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table 11.
Employment Location Quotients of Top of 17Top Industries atof3-digit level of Coconino Employment Location Quotients 17 Industries the Region at 3-digit for 2015 Coconino, its Region and the US in 2015 County, its Region and the level US in Coconino Employment
Total Top 15 Industries at 3-digit levelin Region Administrative and support services Food services and drinking places Educational services Ambulatory health care services Professional and technical services Specialty trade contractors Credit intermediation and related activities Hospitals* General merchandise stores Merchant wholesalers, durable goods Food and beverage stores Insurance carriers and related activities Social assistance Nursing and residential care facilities* Amusements, gambling, and recreation Motor vehicle and parts dealers Accommodation
Region %
60,395 1,809 6,943 568 2,869 1,194 1,308 399 1,502 327 1,724 200 1,376 1,378 890 4,427
Employment
US %
1,963,964 3.0% 11.5% 0.9% 4.8% 2.0% 2.2% 0.7% 2.5% 0.5% 2.9% 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 7.3%
182,041 163,095 130,869 114,022 103,817 70,545 68,732 61,257 47,265 42,611 41,963 39,212 35,974 34,635 32,379 32,325 31,809
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Employment
%
139,491,699 9.3% 8.3% 6.7% 5.8% 5.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
8,445,060 11,040,381 12,313,741 6,981,356 8,725,796 4,069,256 2,573,457 6,145,514 3,213,467 2,932,016 3,085,042 2,266,509 3,675,485 3,480,183 1,838,671 1,930,406 1,989,852
6.1% 7.9% 8.8% 5.0% 6.3% 2.9% 1.8% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 2.6% 2.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
Location Location Quotient Quotient (Coconino/US) (Region/US)
0.49 1.45 0.11 0.95 0.32 0.74 0.36 1.08 0.26 1.29 0.20 0.86 1.73 1.06 5.14
1.53 1.05 0.75 1.16 0.85 1.23 1.90 0.71 1.04 1.03 0.97 1.23 0.70 0.71 1.25 1.19 1.14
Figure 5. Employment Rate of Dominated Industries in Coconino County (2002-2016)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13
Figure 6. Shift-Share Trend of Coconino County (1970-2016)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Table 10. Employment and Shift Share, Coconino County, AZ, 2001-2016
Employment and Shift Share, Coconino County, AZ, 2001-2016 Major Industry Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail Trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services, except public administration Government and government enterprises ……… Total
National
Industry Mix
Regional Shift
2001
2016
Level 3,762 3,177 828 8,171 2,026 711 1,466 2,491
Level 3,096 4,820 1,400 8,776 1,927 656 1,576 3,739
%
Net
%
Net
17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
640 540 141 1,389 344 121 249 423
-14.2% -39.6% -5.7% -10.8% 13.8% -34.0% 9.5% 44.9%
(532) (1,257) (47) (882) 280 (242) 140 1,119
-20.6% 74.3% 57.8% 1.2% -35.7% 9.3% -19.0% -11.8%
(773) 2,360 479 98 (724) 66 (279) (294)
2,555 186 2,075 611 6,657 2,244 10,101 3,105 15,789
3,295 215 2,255 1,238 10,027 3,127 12,662 3,639 19,235
17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
434 32 353 104 1,132 381 1,717 528 2,684
16.5% 22.7% 6.7% 39.6% 26.9% 19.6% 16.4% 8.5% -12.0%
421 42 139 242 1,788 440 1,657 264 (1,901)
-4.5% -24.1% -15.0% 46.0% 6.8% 2.8% -8.0% -8.3% 16.9%
(116) (45) (311) 281 450 62 (813) (257) 2,662
66,819
84,644
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
14
%
Net
1,720
4,745
Higher Unemployment Rate and Poverty Rate than the State and the US Coconino County and its region had higher poverty than the US level, which was 15.8% in 2009-2013ACS, while the poverty rate of Coconino County was 21.6%. It ranked the second highest in the region. Navajo County, which has a much larger share of Native Americans, had the highest poverty rate of 29.5%. Compare Table 11 and Figure 1, they show that the poverty rate was higher in the eastern region, and the poverty rate of the counties in the middle are all in the range from 18% to 25%. The lowest poverty rate in the region is in the Kane County, which has 7.7% of the poverty rate.
Table 11.
Poverty Rate of the Counties, AZ, and the US (2013) Poverty Rate of the Counties, AZ, and the US (2013) Coconino County, Arizona Maricopa County, Arizona Navajo County, Arizona Yavapai County, Arizona
Ttl Population 134,795 3,889,161 107,326 211,968
Poverty Rate 21.6% 16.4% 29.5% 15.6%
Apache County, Arizona Cochise County, Arizona Gila County, Arizona Graham County, Arizona Greenlee County, Arizona La Paz County, Arizona Mohave County, Arizona Pima County, Arizona Pinal County, Arizona Santa Cruz County, Arizona Yuma County, Arizona
71,978 131,038 53,335 37,168 8,679 20,408 201,680 986,891 379,128 47,122 199,026
35.5% 15.9% 21.2% 19.9% 15.7% 19.2% 18.7% 18.7% 14.6% 26.1% 19.4%
Kane County, Utah San Juan County, Utah Washington County, Utah
7,176 14,795 141,902
7.7% 26.5% 15.1%
Arizona State 6,553,255 18.6% Figure 7 shows that the trend of the unemployment rate US 315,091,138 15.8% of Coconino County has Source: U.S. Census Bureau followed the National one from 2001 to 2016. They both had declined from 2002 to 2007. They both hit their lowest point in 2007 with 3.7% in Coconino and 4.6 in the Nation. They both experienced rapid growth from 2007 to 2010 and declined after 2010. The unemployment rate of Coconino had been slightly lower than the National one from 2002 to 2009. The unemployment rate of Coconino was 0.9 % lower than the National in 2007 and 2009. However, this trend changed after 2010. The unemployment rate of Coconino has been higher than the National about 1% from 2010 to 2016.
Figure 8 shows that the trend of unemployment rate monthly of Coconino and the Nation. I use the same color represent the same year and the solid lines for Coconino and the dot lines for the Nation. Figure 8 shows that the monthly trends are similar between Coconino’s and the National, in which May’s had been lowest and slower grown from May to July. However, the unemployment of Coconino had fluctuated more than the National.
15
Figure 7.
Unemployment Rate of Coconino County and the Nation Yearly (2001-2016)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 8.
Unemployment Rate of Coconino County and the Nation Monthly (2011-2017)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
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- HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN BY SPECIFIC ORIGIN. Retrieved from: https:// www.census.gov/. 02/05/2018 U.S. Census Bureau. (2016). 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B15002 - SEX BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR THE POPULATION 25 YEARS AND OVER. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/. 02/05/2018 U.S. Census Bureau. (2016). 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B01001 - SEX BY AGE. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/. 02/05/2018 U.S. Census Bureau. (2011). 1790-2010, Population of States and Counties of the United States. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/population/www/censusdata/pop1790-1990. html U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). County population, population change and estimated components of change from April 1, 2010 through July 1, 2014. Retrieved from: https://compass2g.illinois. edu/bbcswebdav/pid-2953252-dt-content-rid-31616403_1/xid-31616403_1. Provided by Professor Marc Doussard U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). 2009-2013 ACS sample estimates of migration from and to every county in the United States. Retrieved from: https://compass2g.illinois.edu/bbcswebdav/ pid-2953252-dt-content-rid-31616457_1/xid-31616457_1. Provided by Professor Marc Doussard U.S. Census Bureau. (2016). 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, C24050 - INDUSTRY BY OCCUPATION FOR THE CIVILIAN EMPLOYED POPULATION 16 YEARS AND OVER. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/. U.S. Census Bureau. (2016). 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B02014 - AMERICAN INDIAN AND ALASKA NATIVE ALONE FOR SELECTED TRIBAL GROUPINGS. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/. Coconino County. (2015). Coconino County Comprehensive Plan 2015 Approval. Retrieved from: http://www.coconino.az.gov/. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2016). Local Area Unemployment Statistics 2001-2015. Retrieved from: https://www.bls.gov/lau/data.htm Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2016). National Unemployment Statistics 2001-2015. Retrieved from: https://www.bls.gov/lau/data.htm Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2015). CA25N: Total Employment by Major NAICS Industry. Retrieved from: https://www.bea.gov/index.htm Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2015). QCEW NAICS-Based Data - CSVs By Area- Annual Averages - 2015Retrieved from: https://www.bls.gov/lau/data.htm Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2015). CA5N: Total Full-Time and Part-Time Employment by SIC Industry. Retrieved from: https://www.bea.gov/index.htm
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