drill by now. e United Kingdom will continue its recovery which will be slightly stronger than the one of its neighbors across the channel. e QE program will continue to help as long as it remains in place. Barring any unforeseen crisis, the housing market will continue to recover.
Steel Production November 2013 year-to-date in 000mt and compared to last year: European Union (EU 27): 152,464mt (-2.8%) Other Europe: 33,379mt (-3.1%) CIS Countries (6): 99,319mt (-2.8%)
GDP-latest quarter compared to previous one and forecast 2014
Consumer Prices latest and 2012 number
Industrial Production year-on-year
Steel Production YTD November 2013 in 000 mt and compared to last year
Germany
+1.3% Q3/+1.7%
+1.3% Nov/+1.9%
+1.1% Oct
39,180 (-1.1%)
France
-0.6% Q3/+0.8%
+0.7% Nov/+1.4%
Nil Oct
14,505 (-0.9%)
Italy
-0.1% Q3/+0.3%
+0.7% Nov/+2.5%
-0.5% Oct
22,275 (-12.8%)
Britain
+3.2% Q3/+2.6%
+2.1% Nov/+2.7%
+3.2% Oct
10,839 (+23.0%)
Spain
+0.5% Q3/+0.5%
+0.2% Nov/+2.9%
-1.8% Oct
12,829 (+-0.0%)
Russia
+1.2% Q3*/+2.8%
+6.5% Nov/+6.5%
-1.0% Nov
63,379 (-2.2%)
Turkey
+4.4% Q3*/+4.3%
+7.3% Nov/+6.4%
-0.5% Oct
31,981 (-3.2%) *Y.O.Y.
Asia: China has a new leadership and with it an economic outlook that has been tempered in priorities. e focus has shifted away from full throttle growth at all cost to a more moderate but sustainable growth. A relatively moderate growth rate of “only” 7 percent seems to be acceptable now as efforts continue to defuse the still-looming credit bubble. Entering this year, banks have outstanding loans and other credit arrangements worth 200 percent of GDP. e estimated outstanding amount of US$24 trillion is roughly as much as the combined outstanding loan amounts of US and Japanese banks. It is a very distinct Chinese problem since the core of the banking system is still state-owned, and the Bank of China under the watchful eyes of the central government will have to address this problem no matter
what. Japan, on the other hand, will continue to pursue its bold and very aggressive quantitative easing problem. Every month the Bank of Japan is purchasing 5.5 trillion yen, almost as much as what the US Federal Reserve has been doing for the US economy (which is more than three times the size of the Japanese economy). Watch for the yen to continue to stay weak and inflation to tick up slightly. Both of these consequences are the totally intended by the Bank of Japan and Prime Minister Abe. Elsewhere, India’s economy might just manage to grow around 6 percent but will suffer from continual high inflation, but the weakening rupee may actually be helpful by boosting exports.
Industrial Steel Production YTD Nov Production latest 2013 in 000 mt and compared twelve months
ASIA SNAPSHOT
GDP – latest quarter compared to previous one and forecast 2014
Consumer Prices latest and 2012 number
China
+9.1%Q3/+7.3%
+3.0%Nov/+2.0%
+10.0%Nov
712,864(+7.8%)
Japan
+1.1%Q3/ +1.5%
+1.1%Oct/-0.4%
+5.4%Oct
101,224 (+2.6%)
South Korea
+4.3%Q3/+3.5%
+0.9%Nov/+1.6%
+3.0%Oct
60,271 (-4.8%)
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Europe: ankfully, the eurozone will stay out of recession for 2014. Different think tanks have different numbers for the actual growth, but there is a consensus that it will be an underwhelming rate of around 0.8 percent. Europe (EU plus Norway and Switzerland) will see a more upbeat growth of 1.1 percent. e big scourge in Europe will continue to be unemployment. e eurozone will struggle to improve on the current 12.1 percent rate and hordes of young people will be stuck in unemployment or, at best, under-employment. Before we forget: Greece will be running into another crisis in March of this year and it will need more financial assistance from its fellow Euro members. Watch for fiery debates again as well as protests in Athens and beyond and last minute “historic” deals. We know the