Citrus export estimates for 2022 predict growth

With the 2022 South African citrus export season kicking off, a number of citrus growing regions across the country have provided their predicted export volumes for the season. These estimates reveal that the industry will continue to see steady growth across most citrus varietals, with an estimated 4% growth in exports across these categories.

This is good news for the South Africa economy in light of the local industry sustaining 120 000 jobs and bringing in R30 billion in export revenue last year alone. However, several challenges are facing the sector and continue to threaten the profitability and future sustainability of growers. This include soaring input costs including fuel and fertilizer price hikes and a major increase in freight rates, red tape hampering access to some overseas markets, as well as ongoing operational challenges at the country’s ports.

Regions have provided estimates for the following varietals for the upcoming season:

The current prediction is that 32,3 million (15 kg) cartons will be exported to key markets, which is an increase of 1,3 million cartons when compared to 2021. Young trees beginning to bear fruit in some regions, including the Western Cape, and Senwes in Limpopo will contribute to this growth. However, a cooler summer could result in smaller fruit in some regions, which could impact the final number of cartons packed and shipped.

Current predictions show a 1,5 million increase in (15 kg) cartons of navels that will be shipped during the coming season, with 28,7 million cartons expected to be exported in total. While hailstorms in some areas such as the Eastern Cape Midlands resulted in a decrease in predicted estimates, good rains in other areas such as the Sundays River Valley means this region should enjoy a 9% growth in navel export volumes.

An estimated 58,2 million (15 kg) cartons of valencias is predicted to be exported in 2022, which will be a 3,2 million increase from the 55 million cartons shipped last season. However, the final number shipped could decrease depending on market conditions towards the end of the season, in particular narrowing market windows which could make it difficult to ship remaining volumes.

An estimated 14,8 million (17 kg) cartons of grapefruit is predicted to be exported during the coming season. However, a number of outside forces could negatively impact this total, including the Russian conflict in Ukraine due to Russia being a major importer of South African grapefruit.

Furthermore, should fuel and shipping costs continue to escalate, PP fruit that is sent for processing and Class 2 grapefruit will not be exported, which will also reduce the final export total.

It is clear that, in order for the industry to continue on the upward trajectory it has enjoyed over the past few years, government and stakeholders across the value chain need to work together to improve the operational capacity and efficiency at the country’s ports and to secure, maintain, and retain as many market access opportunities as possible.

Key markets that offer major potential for expanded access and require particular attention during the coming season are the United States and India. This is the only way the growers will be able to offset increasing input costs that are squeezing their profit margins and for the industry to remain competitive, particularly considering local production is expected to grow by another 300 000 tons over the next two years.

Recently, the European Union’s (EU) standing committee on plant, animal, food and feed (SCOPAFF) discussed new regulations on false coddling moth (FCM), which pose a major threat to Southern African orange exports.

If agreed to by member countries, these new regulations will have a devastating impact on orange exports from South Africa to the region. This could lead to large gaps in the supply chain and higher prices for European consumers, at a time when the region faces the real risk of food insecurity due to the ongoing Ukraine-Russian conflict. In South Africa, these new regulations will put the sustainability of the industry at risk and the 140 000, mostly rural, jobs it sustains.

The proposed legislation requires exporting African countries to implement a drastic mandatory cold treatment (0 °C to -1 °C for at least 16 days) for oranges headed to the region. This is despite South Africa enforcing a rigorous risk management system, which has been highly effective in protecting European production from the threat of pest or disease, including FCM, over the past few years.

Deon Joubert, Special CGA Envoy: Market Access & EU Matters, says that in this regard, when it comes to the 800 000 tonnes of citrus imports to the EU annually, FCM interceptions have been consistently low over the past three years – 19 (2019), 14 (2020) and 15 (2021) interceptions respectively. South Africa

has also disputed six of its reported EU interceptions during last year’s season, as the overwhelming expert scientific reviewed evidence indicates the larvae reported was dead, which means it posed no risk.

This is in stark contrast to FCM interceptions from other third importing countries, which have been much higher – with 53, 129 and 58 interceptions over the same period. Yet no measures have been proposed against these countries, which makes the new regulations proposed against South Africa even more inexplicable.

These proposed new regulations are also disproportionate and unfeasible. When it comes to South African conventional oranges, only a portion of the crop will be able to withstand the new prescribed cold treatment temperatures. Furthermore, new provisions on the regulations which require “data loggers” from containers and a “measured pulp temperature threshold” are totally different to the current EU accepted FCM risk management system. These will require specialised and severely short supplied container equipment which will not be able to accommodate the huge volumes of fruit exported from South Africa to the EU. “The mandatory cold treatment will also put a stop to all exports of organic and ‘chem-free’ (non-treated) oranges to the EU, including several popular varieties such as blood oranges, Turkey, Salustiana, Benny and Midknights. This is due to these products simply not being able to withstand the suggested cold treatment. Yet, these environmentally friendly and sustainable orange types have never recorded a FCM interception,” says Joubert.

He continues by explaining that no consultation took place with the South African National Plant Protection Organisation (NPPO) prior to these new regulations being filed at the World Trade Organisation on 10 February 2022. This is in stark contrast to the EU’s normal operation, where issues or concerns on plant health mitigation would be bilaterally discussed and practical options or procedures to mitigate risk considered and agreed for inclusion.

“The fact that this proposed legislation was put forward, despite alternative and equally effective cold treatment options being available and which have already been provided for in the South African FCM Risk Management System, indicates that this it is being driven by a political agenda. It is for these reasons that interest groups, including growers in Southern Africa and importers from a number of EU countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and France, lodged objections to the proposed regulations during the recent EU ‘Have your Say’ public participation process. In total, a record 164 submissions were made, with 90% of these objecting the proposed regulations,” says Joubert.

The CGA has also been meeting with member countries to highlight the threat these unwarranted regulations pose to the continuity of orange imports from South Africa, the yearround availability for EU consumers and the 140 000 jobs the local industry sustains. “We hope sanity will prevail and these new regulations are rejected.”

Late news: The EU’s committee postponed their planned voting on the proposed FCM regulations to consider new information.

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