The Nail, March 2021 by Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee (HBAMT)

March, 2021

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Steve Shalibo Vice President Nick Wisniewski Secretary/Treasurer Brandon Rickman Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 HBAMT building upgrades continue into new year

Updates and renovations to the HBAMT building continue thanks to the Building Council and member contributions.

12 Top challenges for builders in 2020 remain in 2021

Building material prices, permit times expected to remain top challenges for builders in the coming year.

16 Contributions needed for the Showcase House program

Donate materials and/or labor to the HBAMT’s Showcase House program. There are currently two Showcase projects underway.

17 Spring Builders Show!

Advertise in

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NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 19 SPIKE Club Report 20 March Calendar 20 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: Updates, upgrades, and renovations continue at the HBAMT building. See page nine (9) for more details. March, 2021

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NEWS&INFO

New home sales up in January, supply side concerns remain

trong demand stemming from low interest rates, favorable demographics and a suburban shift for home building to smaller, more affordable housing markets helped to lift new home sales in January. But rising lumber and material costs threaten to blunt this momentum. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in January rose 4.3% to a 923,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. “Historically low mortgage rates and solid demand spurred an increase in new home sales in January, with the sales pace more than 19% higher than a year ago,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke, a custom home builder from Tampa, Fla. “However, rising affordability issues are looming this year, particularly increasing building material costs, including lumber, which is adding $24,000 to the price of a typical newly-built home. Builders also cite rising reg-

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ulatory issues as a potential concern.” “With existing home inventory at all-time lows, the demand for new construction remains strong,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Though, rising building and development costs, combined with recent increases in mortgage interest rates, threaten to exacerbate existing affordability conditions. Builders are exercising discipline to ensure home prices do not outpace buyer budgets.” A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the January reading of 923,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. Inventory remains low at just a four-month supply, with 307,000 new single-family homes for sale, 6.3% lower than January 2020. The median sales price was $346,400, up 5.3% from the $328,900 median sales price posted a year earlier. Regionally, new home sales declined 13.9% in the Northeast, and rose in the other three regions, up 12.6% in the Midwest, 3% in the South and 6.8% in the West. n

Housing production softens, builder confidence up slightly

ousing production softened in January as rising lumber prices continue to affect the housing industry. Overall housing starts decreased 6.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.58 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The January reading of 1.58 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 12.2% to a 1.16 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 17.1% to a 418,000 pace. “Concerns over higher lumber prices produced softness for the housing market amid solid buyer traffic at the start of the year,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “With the cost of building materials rising at a rapid pace, the challenge for builders is to keep home prices at an affordable level for buyers even as the regulatory policy environment may become more challenging.” “The weakness in housing starts in January is consistent with our recent builder surveys,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Builders report concerns over increasing lumber and other construction costs and delays in obtaining building materials. Rising interest rates will also erode housing affordability in 2021, as existing home inventories remain low. It’s also worth noting that the number of single-family homes

permitted but not started construction jumped to 114,000 units in January. This is 9.6% higher than December and 28.1% higher than a year ago, as building material cost increases and delays slow some home building.” On a regional basis compared to the previous month, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 2.3% higher in the Northeast, 12.3% lower in the Midwest, 2.5% lower in the South and 11.4% lower in the West. Overall permits increased 10.4% to a 1.88 million unit annualized rate in January. Single-family permits increased 3.8% to a 1.27 million unit rate. Multifamily permits increased 27.2% to a 612,000 pace. Looking at regional permit data compared to the previous month, permits are 39.3% higher in the Northeast, 0.8% lower in the Midwest, 8.3% higher in the South and 11.7% higher in the West. Builder confidence inches up in February Strong buyer demand helped offset supply chain challenges and a surge in lumber prices as builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched up one point to 84 in February, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). “Lumber prices have been steadily rising this year and hit a record high in mid-February, adding thousands of dollars to the cost of a new home and causing some builders to abruptly halt projects at a time when inventories are already at all-time lows,” said Fowke. “Builders

Remodeling recovered from beginning of COVID-19

pending on residential improvements will continue to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years, according to experts speaking at an online press conference hosted by NAHB Remodelers during the 2021 IBSx. Professional remodelers from across the country agreed with the forecast, citing increased demand during COVID-19 and consumer confidence. The remodeling market declined significantly at the onset of COVID-19 in March and April 2020, but has since more than fully recovered. NAHB predicts that remodeling spending

for owner-occupied single-family homes will increase four percent in 2021 and increase two percent in 2022. “After the dip at the beginning of the pandemic, remodeler confidence bounced back, and it continues to remain at a high level, as remodeling spending is expected to reach $285 billion in 2021,” said Vince Butler, CAPS, CGR, GMB, GMR, a remodeler from Clifton, Va. “There is steady consumer demand as Americans are at home much more during the pandemic. This gives home owners more time

remain very focused on regulatory and other policy issues that could price out households seeking new homes in a tight market this year.” “Demand conditions remain solid due to demographics, low mortgage rates and the suburban shift to lower cost markets, but we expect to see some cooling in growth rates for residential construction in 2021 due to cost factors, supply chain issues and regulatory risks,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Some builders are at capacity and may not be able to expand production due to these headwinds.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions held steady at 90, while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell three points to 80. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers rose four points to 72. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 78, the Midwest fell one point to 81, the South dropped two points to 84 and the West posted a two-point loss to 93. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. n

and a desire to invest in their homes.” “We’re seeing more requests for proposals because of the pandemic,” said Tim Lansford, CAPS, CGA, CGB, CGP, CGR, CMP, CSP, GMB, Master CGP, Master CSP, MIRM, a remodeler from Arlington, Texas. “Because people are using their time at home now to remodel, the demand and backlog for remodeling remains high.” “NAHB estimates that real spending on home improvements will continue to increase in 2021 and 2022 throughout the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Paul Emrath Ph.D., NAHB’s Assistant Vice President for Surveys and Housing Policy Research. “The biggest factors prohibiting stronger growth are mainly the volatile material prices and labor shortages.” n March, 2021

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The HBAMT building has benefited from major upgrades in recent months thanks to the Building Council of the Board of Directors.

HBAMT building updates in full swing

he HBAMT building has undergone major updates over the past year thanks to the Building Council of the HBAMT Board Directors. Lead by Chairman Andy Neuman, the council has recently seen the replacement of the building’s carpeting and flooring as well as its windows. “We’re pleased with the progress we’ve made but there are still areas we’d like to see updated and renovated,” says Neuman. “Contribu-

tions made by association members have fueled our success so far and we’re very appreciative to all who have donated their time, labor, and materials.” Metro Carpets and Franks Jones contributed new flooring in the classroom and new carpeting throughout the upstairs and downstairs. Previous projects included new landscaping for the front entrance, fence repairs & repainting, upgraded exterior lighting, parking lot patching, sealing & restriping, operational flag pole, new door entrance system, and a much needed larger dumpster. Nick Wisniewski of Landmark Homes, Brandon Rickman of Paran Homes, and Neuman were responsible for the majority of these Exterior improvements have included new landscaping, fence and parking lot repairs, and upgraded exterior lighting.

improvements. Sam McAtee with Allegion replaced the front and back door handles and locks. Future project include upgrading the building security & adding keyless entry system, redoing the exterior brick, repainting the exterior of the building, updated the front entrance and lobby and converting the basement into climate controlled self-storage. If you see an area that needs some TLC, please contact Andy Neuman at andy@hmcnashville.com. Along with donated material and labor, proceeds for building projects are also provided by the HBAMT’s CapX Fund. The fund is generated by a portion of membership dues and was specifically created to provide for the continual upkeep and maintenance of the building. A big thanks to the Building Council of the Board of Directors. Council members include Brandon Rickman, James Carbine, Terry Cobb, Frank Jones, Andy Neuman, and Nick Wisniewski. Look for more HBAMT building upgrades throughout the year! The committee is always in need of volunteers, if you are interested in serving please contact Andy Neuman at andy@hmcnashville.com. n March, 2021

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New windows went up throughout the building this year.

Flooring and carpeting updates were made on both the main floor and second level suite areas.

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HBAMT Installation & Awards Banquet

SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE! GENERAL SPONSOR

- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Recognition at Banquet

$600

PLATINUM SPONSOR

- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Ten (10) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$1,000

RECEPTIONS SPONSOR (2 available)

- Dual logos on all printed material - Signage at Reception and Banquet - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Forty (40) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$5,000

TITLE SPONSOR (1 available)

- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - Sixty (60) beverage tickets of your choice

$7,500

Yes, I want to sponsor the HBAMT’s Installation & Awards Banquet (3/25/21) at the level checked above.

Company name: _____________________________________________________________

Your Name: _________________________________________________________________

Your number: ________________________ Your email: ______________________________

Return this form and your company’s logo via email to cnicley@hbamt.org Fax: 615-377-1077 | Mail: HBAMT 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027

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Top challenges for builders in 2021

uilding materials prices topped the list of problems builders faced in 2020 and is expected to return to the number one spot in 2021, according to special questions on the December 2020 survey for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The survey results showed that building materials was a significant issue for 96% of builders last year. In 2021, however, a smaller share – 89% of the builders – expect it to continue being a problem. The second most widespread problem in 2020 was availability/time it takes to obtain building materials cited by 78% of builders. In 2021, the share of builders expecting availability/time it takes to obtain building materials is expected to increase to 80% compared to last year. The high incidence of builders reporting building material problems is not surprising given recent increases in material prices. In 2011, building materials prices was reported as a significant problem by 33% of builders, followed by 46% in 2012, 68% in 2013, 58% in 2014, 42% in 2015, 48% in 2016, 77% in 2017, 87% in 2018, and 66% in 2019 before peaking at to 96% in 2020. Meanwhile the cost and availability of labor was reported as a significant problem by only 13% of builders in 2011. The share increased to 30% in 2012, 53% in 2013, 61% in 2014, 71% in 2015, 78% in 2016, 82% in both 2017 and 2018, and increased to 87% in 2019. While 65% said it was problem in 2020, 71% expect it to continue being a problem in 2021. Concern about employment/economic situation was a problem for only 48% of builders in 2020, but 57% expect it to be a problem in 2021. In 2011, Concern about employment/ economic situation was reported as a significant problem by 79% of builders. The share decreased to 71% in 2012, 60% in 2013, 51% in 2014, 47% in 2015, 44% in 2016, 25% in 2017, 28% in 2018, and 25% in 2019. Another significant problem that builders faced in 2020 and is expected to face in 2020 is cost and availability of developed lots. In 2011, cost and availability of lots was reported as a significant problem by 21% of builders. The share increased to 34% in 2012, 46% in 2013, 55% in 2014, 58% in 2015, 60% in 2016, 58% in both 2017 and 2018, and 63% in 2019. While a smaller share 48% builders said it was a (continued on page 19)

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Thank you Banquet sponsors!

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distributed by DixiePly Nashville

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SHOWCASE HOUSE Fundraiser Program The HBAMT Showcase House program is an effort to generate funds to help fuel the association’s daily efforts to promote the home building industry and defend its builders against unjust legislative activity. We currently have TWO projects underway: - The 2020 Showcase House at Nature’s Landing - The 2021 Showcase House at Hardeman Springs See the brochures below for a complete list of materials and labor needed for each project. Contact information for donating to each of the programs is listed below the brochure links.

SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser.html for updated lists on needed materials/labor.

SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit

For specific details regarding materials please contact Jimmy Franks: 615-794-7415 or franco314@aol.com; or Blake Parks: 615-243-6373 or blake@tennesseevalleyhomes.com

For specific details regarding materials please contact Steve Shalibo: 615-772-1019 or shalibo42@gmail.com

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http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser_2021.html

for updated lists on needed materials/labor.

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Builders SHOW Exhibit Tent 13

The Builders Show exhibit tent will be located on the south side of the HBAMT building and measure 100 x 50 feet

DON’T MISS OUT ON THIS TERRIFIC OPPORTUNITY!

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boasting space for forty-five (45) 10 x 5 feet exhibit spaces.

Return your registration form to the HBAMT today to reserve 38 35

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your space! Exhibit spaces are limited to two per company.

Exhibit Space

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= 10’x5’

Tuesday, May 11

Secure your spot today by returning the registration form provided below to the HBAMT today!

2021 SPRING BUILDERS SHOW EXHIBITORS REGISTRATION FORM

- 120 feet -

Return this form to the HBAMT at 615-377-1077 (fax) or via email to cnicley@hbamt.org Your name: ______________________________________ Company: _______________________________________

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Cell: ____________________________________________ Email: __________________________________________

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Top 3 booth location preferences (not guaranteed): ________

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________

Number of booths you’re purchasing (no more than two):

R DE IL R! BU BA

26 - 40 feet -

ENTRANCE

_______ x $595 = your total payment: $____________ Credit Card ______________________________________ Credit Card # ______________________ Exp. __________ Credit Card V-Code _______________

The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip. It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.

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SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb Jackson Downey Jim McLean Randall Smith

Twenty-four SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of January 31, 2021. Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Mitzi Spann 788 Bill King 776 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 John Whitaker 565 Trey Lewis 506 James Carbine 408 Jennifer Earnest 377 Jimmy Franks 342 David Crane 336 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 221 Sonny Shackelford 219

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Life Spikes David Hughes 153 Tonya Esquibel 150 Harry Johnson 146 Helmut Mundt 143 Steve Cates 142 C.W. Bartlett 138 Nick Wisniewski 134 Jordan Clark 124 B.J. Hanson 122 Carmen Ryan 121 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Steve Shalibo 117 Michael Dillon 114 Justin Hicks 113 Dave McGowan 113 Edsel Charles 109 Wiggs Thompson 106 Brandon Rickman 104 Duane Vanhook 103 Joe Morgan 94 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Keith Porterfield 82 Erin Richardson 77 Jody Derrick 74 Beth Sturm 74 Sam Henley 73

Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Ron Schroeder 69 Andrew Neuman 62 Marty Maitland 60 Christina James 57 John Broderick 55 Rick Olszewski 52 John Ganschow 51 Phillip Smith 47 Ricky Scott 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Frank Jones 42 Joe Dalton 38 Frank Tyree 33 Don Mahone 30 Jeffrey Caruth 26 Rachel Holloway 26 Ryan Meade 25 Spikes Perry Pratt 20 Nicole Bird 15 Tammy Chambers 15 Rob Pease 14 Eric DeBerry 12 John Nehrenz 12 MacKenzie Curtis 10 Will Montgomery 10 Curt Haynes 9 Chris Richey 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Matt Dryden 7 McClain Franks 6

(continued from page 12) problem in 2020, 57% said it will continue to be a problem in 2021. Compared to the supply-side problems of materials, labor and lots, federal government policies were not as widespread last year, but builders expect many of them to become more of a problem in 2021. Federal environmental regulations and policies was a significant problem for 28% of builders in 2020, compared to 48% who expected it to be an issue in 2021. Taxes on home builders was a problem for 21% of builders in 2020, it will be significant problem in 2021 for 41% of builders. While Attempts to limit mortgage interest deduction/other was a significant problem for 23% of builders in 2020, but 36% expect it to be a problem in 2021. Regulation of banking/financial institutions was a problem for only 18% of builders in 2020, but 33% expect it to be a problem in 2020. Followed by OSHA regulations and inspections for 31% of builders in 2021, compared to 18% in 2020. For additional details, including a complete history for each reported and expected problem listed in the survey, please consult the full HMI Dec 2020 SplQ REPORT EXTERNAL FINAL. n

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MARCH CALENDAR Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sales & Marketing Council Meeting

CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

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Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313. SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Nick Wisniewski The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526. The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced. Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265. MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Christina James. The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, March 4th. Topic: “Shifting our Mindset,” with guest speak Colby Jubenville. SMC Members FREE w/RSVP thanks to James Hardie Building Products. Non-SMC members: $15 with RSVP; $20 w/o RSVP RSVP REQUIRED - LIMITED SEATING RSVP to cnicley@hbamt.org Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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