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HBAMT’S HOSPITALITY SUITE at the 2019 IBS! February 19-21 at The Aria, Las Vegas
The Largest Annual Light Construction Show in the World!
HBAMT HOSPITALITY SUITE SPONSORSHIPS
Sign up now to sponsor the HBAMT’s Hospitality Suite at the 2019 International Builders Show in Las Vegas.
General Sponsorship $500 Bar Sponsorship $1000 In addition to regular Hospitality Suite hours, sponsors will take part in a private reception for builders only February 18 from 5-7pm.
Registration form available at:
www.hbamt.org/member.event.html Contact Connie Nicley for details
NAHB IBS 2019 Feb 19-21, Las Vegas BuildersShow.com
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THE
NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Justin Hicks Vice President David Hughes Secretary/Treasurer Steve Shalibo Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
FEATURES 11 More homes needed to replace older stock
NAHB study explains how a decrease in yearly new home construction has created a plethora of older homes - and a need for newer homes.
12 Annual HBAMT Home Show at the Fairgrounds Nashville
The Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee Home Show opened last month to steady crowds during a busy three-day weekend.
15 Promotional opportunities at the 2019 Parade
Sign up now to participate as an advertiser or exhibitor at the 2019 James Hardie Parade of Homes at The Grove.
DEPARTMENTS
Advertise in
THE
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8 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 February Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils
Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details
ON THE COVER: The Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee 2019 HOME SHOW drew steady crowds during its three-day weekend run. More details on page ten. February, 2019
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news&info
New home sales higher than expected in November
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ales of newly built, single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units in November after an upwardly revised October report, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the highest sales pace since March 2018. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales are down 7.7 percent from this time in 2017. The sales report was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. “The sales increase was fueled by a notable uptick in homes sold at the affordable end of the market,” said Randy Noel, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “There is clearly a demand for new home homes even as builders continue to grapple with supply-side challenges, including shortages of lots and labor
The sales increase was fueled by a notable uptick in homes sold at the affordable end of the market. 8 The NAIL
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and higher building material costs stemming from tariffs.” “Solid job growth and growing household formations should support future demand for housing even as builders continue to address mounting affordability woes,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Builders are doing all they can to hold the line on costs to meet this demand, particularly at the entry-level market.” A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the November reading of 657,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. The inventory of new homes for sale rose to 330,000 in November. The median sales price fell to $302,400, as the market has shifted to lower-cost houses. Regionally, on a monthly basis, new home sales jumped 100 percent in the Northeast, 30.5 percent in the Midwest and 20.6 percent in the South. Sales fell 5.9 percent in the West. n
Lower interest rates stabilize builder confidence
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uoyed by falling mortgage rates, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points to 58 in January on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). “The gradual decline in mortgage rates in recent weeks helped to sustain builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “Low unemployment, solid job growth and favorable demographics should support housing demand in the coming months.” “Builders need to continue to manage rising construction costs to keep home prices affordable, particularly for young buyers at the entry-level of the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Lower interest rates that peaked around 5 percent in mid-November and have since fallen to just below 4.5 percent will help the housing market continue to grow at a modest clip as we enter the new year.” Due to the partial government shutdown, there will be no new Census figures released tomorrow on housing starts and permits. NAHB estimates that the December Census data would show that single-family starts ended the year totaling 876,000 units, which would mark a 3 percent gain over the 2017 total of 848,900. However, the slowdown in sales during the fourth quarter of 2018 has left new home inventories elevat-
ed in some markets. Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. All the HMI indices posted gains in January. The index measuring current sales conditions rose two points to 63, the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased three points to 64 and the metric charting buyer traffic edged up one point to 44. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast dropped five points to 45; the Midwest and South both fell three points to 52 and 62, respectively; and the West registered a onepoint drop to 67. Remodelers’ confidence holds steady The NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 57 in the fourth quarter of 2018, only one point lower than the previous
Permit growth flat in November, survey says
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ver the first eleven months of 2018, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 799,679. On a yearover-year basis, this is a 5.1% increase over the November 2017 level of 761,229. The preliminary results from the New Residential Construction Survey are similar, yearto-date single-family permits over the first eleven months of 2018 was, 800,000 which is 5.2% ahead of its level over the same period of 2017, 760,600. Year-to-date ending in November, single-family permits grew in the Southern and
the Western regions of the country, while the Midwest and Northeast declined by 2.6% and 3.0% respectively, compared to the same time period in 2017. The Western region had the highest growth in single-family (9.8%) while the South recorded the highest multifamily permits growth (13.2%) during the last 12 months. The South was the only region to record growth in multifamily permits during this time. Between November 2017 YTD and November 2018 YTD, 26 states saw growth in single-family permits issued while 23 states and the District of Columbia registered a de-
quarter. The RMI has been consistently above 50—indicating that more remodelers report market activity is higher compared to the prior quarter than report it is lower—since the second quarter of 2013. The overall RMI averages current remodeling activity and future indicators. “The overall remodeling market remains strong, but there are signs of concern related to rising labor and input costs,” said NAHB Remodelers Chair Joanne Theunissen, CGP, CGR, a remodeler from Mt. Pleasant, Mich. “Remodelers are battling sticker shock with many home owners who expect lower bids.” Current market conditions fell one point from the previous quarter to 57. Among its three major components, major additions and alterations remained steady at 56, minor additions and alterations decreased one point to 56 and the home maintenance and repair component fell one point to 59. The future market indicators dropped three points from the previous quarter to 56. Calls for bids remained still at 57, the amount of work committed for the next three months decreased seven points to 52, the backlog of remodeling jobs fell three points to 59 and appointments for proposals decreased four points to 55. “Many of the fundamentals for the remodeling market, including demographics and economic and employment growth, remain favorable,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, remodelers continue to face challenges in keeping their prices competitive while dealing with the increasing costs of labor and building materials.” For the full RMI tables, please visit www. nahb.org/rmi. For more information about remodeling, visit www.nahb.org/remodel. n
cline. There was no change in the number of permits issued in Arkansas. Colorado recorded the highest growth rate during this time at 18.9% while single-family permits in the District of Columbia declined by 69.6%, from 342 in 2017 to 104 in 2018. The 10 states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 59.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Year-to-date, ending in November 2018, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 422,456. This is 3.3% ahead of its level over the first eleven months of 2017, 409,003. The preliminary results from the New Residential Construction Survey show a small increase of 2.3% in multifamily permits over the first eleven months of 2018, 422,600 compared to the same period of 2017, 412,900. n February, 2019
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More homes needed to replace older stock
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ver the 40-year span from 1961 through 2000, housing starts averaged a little over 1.5 million a year, but they have been nowhere near that high since 2006. As a recent NAHB study explains, one outcome of this shortfall has been a tendency for older homes to remain in service longer. Attempts to improve the stock of housing in the U.S. (for example, through new development standards or building codes) therefore make relatively little sense without a concomitant strategy to increase overall production. More than one industry expert has reported on the production shortfall. In an April 2018 article, for instance, Laurie Goodman of the Urban Institute estimated that, in 2017, the supply of new homes fell about 350,000 short of the level needed to meet demand. Similarly, the NAHB study showed that the number of homes completed has been running below even the number of net new household formations. Whichever way you want to look at it, this shortfall creates pressure to keep older homes in service longer. It should therefore not be surprising that data from the Census Bureau’s American Commu-
nity Survey show that the number of homes built before 1970 has been declining at quite a slow pace. There were 52.83 million of them in 2014, and by 2016 the number had fallen only to 52.17 million. This implies that only a little over 6 out of every 1,000 homes built before 1970 are removed from the stock each year. Some of the loss rates the Census Bureau uses to estimate the number of housing units in the U.S. are even smaller, showing less than 1 housing unit per 1,000 being removed from the stock per year in the Northeast and West regions. In the long run, loss rates as small as this are not sustainable, of course, as that would imply half of new homes built in some regions last 1,000 years. But in the medium term, it may be possible to keep removal and production rates as low as they are right now. As a thought experiment, consider what would happen were loss rates to remain as currently estimated by the Census Bureau and 1.20 million new homes were built every year (1.20 million homes were started and 1.15 million were completed in 2017, the highest either number has been in a decade). In that case, after 20 years, only 16 percent
of the housing stock would consist of new homes built between now and then, and 45 percent would still consist of homes built before 1970 (as high as 65 percent in the Northeast). In 1970 there were no codes or standards for energy efficiency, and the resiliency requirements motivated by the experiences with Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and the Northridge earthquake in 1994 were still years off. Many code changes targeting fire safety (such as requirements for smoke alarms, fire separation, fire blocking, draft stopping, emergency escape openings, electrical circuit breakers, and capacity and outlet separation) were also implemented after 1970. In short, in just about every way imaginable, new homes are being built to higher standards than they were in 1970. So if you want to improve the built environment, one of the first things you need to do is figure out simply how to increase the production of new homes, built to modern standards, so it becomes possible to retire more of the older ones. Additional details, including thorough descriptions of the data sources and underlying calculations, are available in the full study. n February, 2019
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2019 Home Show at the Fairgrounds Annual HBAMT event packed them in at the Fairgrounds Nashville.
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he 2019 Home Show opened January 11 at the Fairgrounds Nashville and drew big crowds throughout a busy three-day weekend. With less severe winter elements to contend with, attendees flocked to this year’s event where they found a wealth of home improvement products and services, helpful vendors, and educational seminars. The 2020 Home Show is already signing up vendors for next year’s event scheduled for another three-day run January 7-9. Call the HBAMT at (615) 377-1055 to request your 2020 Home Show registration form. Or visit the event’s page at www.hbamt.org for a downloadable one-page registration form. n
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HOME SHOW SEMINARS
Kate Richards
Kimberley Greenwell
David McGowan
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This year’s Home Show featured a number of informative seminars offering event attendees a wealth of knowledge and professional advice. Including a number of expert panels led by My Southern Home’s Kimberley Greenwell, and seminars from Kate Richard, Kate Richard Design, attendees filled the Fairgrounds Seminar Pavilion all weekend.
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James Hardie Parade of Homes The 2019 Parade of Homes at The Grove
ADVERTISE & EXHIBIT
If your company depends on new homes or related products, furnishings or services, here’s one opportunity you can’t pass up -- the 2019 James Hardie Parade of Homes at The Grove! Secure your space in the Plan Book or reserve an Exhibit Booth today.
THE PARADE PLAN BOOK
THE PARADE EXHIBIT BOOTH
At every Parade event each attendee is handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate - the Parade Plan Book.
Here’s your chance to demonstrate your product or service to the thousands of qualified prospects who pass through the Parade of Homes exhibit center when they enter and leave the show. As with Plan Book advertising, the exhibit center produces virtually all pre-qualified customers!
The Plan Book is a tremendous opportunity to put your message into the hands of pre-qualified customers who refer to the book several months after the Parade of Homes is over! Plan Book Advertising Rates Half Page 7.5” x4.75” (Horizontal) Full Page 7.5”x10” 8.75”x 11.25” (B1eed) *Page One 7.5”x10” 8.75”x11.25” (Bleed) *Inside Front Cover Inside Back Cover *Double Truck Back Cover
$800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,100 $2,300 $2,840 $3,250
*specialty locations sold. Email jargo@hbamt.net for ad specs and availability.
It’s like opening up shop and having thousands of prospects visit your showroom the first two weeks you’re in business. What other medium could come close to producing those kinds of results? The Parade ranks first of all home shows in the nation and you can take advantage of the prestige this show enjoys. Exhibit Booth Price? $750 Each booth in the Parade of Homes exhibit center measures 10’ x 6’ at the front entrance where patrons must enter and exit -- perfect for eye-popping kiosks and marketing publications!
2019 PARADE OF HOMES - PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES COMMITMENT FORM
Return completed form to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 | Fax: 615/377-1077 | Email: jargo@hbamt.org
PLAN BOOK AD - please check the size of ad you would like to secure in the 2019 Plan Book:
r Half Page
r Full Page
r Page One
r Inside Front
r Inside Back
r Back Cover
r 2-Page Spread
EXHIBIT BOOTH SPACE - please check here to secure your 2019 Exhibit Booth Space: r Your name: ____________________________________ Company: _____________________________________ Cell: _________________________________________ Email: _________________________________________ Total amount being paid: $___________ Credit Card _______________________ Credit Card # _______________________________ Exp. ____________ Credit Card V-Code _______________
The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip.
It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.
Signature ____________________________________________________________________________________ 16 The NAIL
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SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb 206 Jackson Downey 182 Tim Ferguson 177 Jim McLean 164
Eleven SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of December 31, 2018. Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 767 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 558 Trey Lewis 425 James Carbine 393 Jennifer Earnest 365 David Crane 316 Kevin Hale 300 Jimmy Franks 276 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219
Life Spikes Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 142 C.W. Bartlett 138 Tonya Esquibel 136 Sam Carbine 135 Randall Smith 125 B.J. Hanson 119 Steve Hewlett 119 Jordan Clark 118 Carmen Ryan 117 Kevin Woodward 115 John Zelenak 112 Helmet Mundt 109 Dave McGowan 108 David Hughes 106 Edsel Charles 105 Wiggs Thompson 103 Duane Vanhook 100 Michael Dillon 97 Justin Hicks 93 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Joe Morgan 83 Christina Cunningham 82 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 72 Jeff Slusher 70 Lori Fisk-Conners 69
Keith Porterfield 68 Don Bruce 62 Sam Henley 62 Marty Maitland 60 Ron Schroeder 60 Eugene James 59 Nick Wisniewski 56 John Broderick 55 Jody Derrick 52 Derenda Sircy 51 Andrew Neuman 50 John Ganschow 49 Ashley Crews 44 Bryan Edwards 44 Phillip Smith 44 Ricky Scott 43 Steve Shalibo 43 Rick Olszewski 40 Don Mahone 30 Frank Tyree 29 Christina James 26 Frank Jones 25 Spikes Brandon Rickman 24 John Burns 16 Joe Dalton 14 Perry Pratt 13 Kim Carman 11 Rob Pease 11 Tammy Chambers 10 Will Montgomery 10 Bob Bellenfant 8
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FEBRUARY Calendar Sunday
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Thursday
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Saturday
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Sales & Marketing Council meeting
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NAHB 2019 International Builders Show
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Dickson County Chapter meeting
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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting
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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson. Next meeting: Tuesday, February 26. Topic: “Model Energy Codes,” with Shane Chandler, Dickson Gas Authority. Price: Meeting FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, February 28 at Diskin Cider. Topic: “Turning Back Time,” 80’s themed Mix-&-Mingle. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: to be determined. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261
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ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.
Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308
SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262
HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations. Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined. Topic: to be announced. Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263
WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935. The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526. The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. Next meeting: to be announced.
INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265. MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Jeffrey Caruth. The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, February 7, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: “Carry Your Brand Anywhere,” with Lisa Underwood and Margaret Tolbert. SMC members free thanks to US Bank; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.
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