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THE
NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Nick Wisniewski Vice President Brandon Rickman Secretary/Treasurer Jim Hysen Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
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FEATURES 9 2022 Spring Fling & Builders Show Exhibit Space Space at the HBAMT Builders Show next month is going fast! Respond today to secure your spot at the big event.
11 New Home Features Most Desired by Buyers
A recent NAHB survey reveals the new home features most (and least) desired by today’s home buyers.
13 2022 Parade advertising and exhibiting opportunities The Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes returns this fall to Rosebrooke. Secure your planbook space today!
DEPARTMENTS
Advertise in
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NAIL
6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report 16 April Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils
Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details April, 2022
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NEWS&INFO
New home sales soften in February
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igher mortgage rates and construction costs pushed new home sales lower in February even as demand remains solid due to a lack of existing home inventory. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in February fell 2.0% to a 772,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised reading in January, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales are down 6.2% compared to February 2021. “The new home market is more important than ever as a source of inventory given the historically low level of resale homes available for purchase,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter. “However, higher construction costs are hindering new home sales as the cost of lumber, OSB, shingles and other materials rise. Policymakers could help by reducing tariffs on materials as an anti-inflation measure.” “New home sales softened in January and February as mortgage rates increased,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “NAHB
New home sales softened in January and February as construction costs and mortgage rates increased. 6 The NAIL
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is forecasting additional gains in interest rates as monetary policy meaningfully tightens in 2022, putting additional pressure on housing affordability. However, because there is such limited inventory of existing single-family homes on the market, additional new construction is required to meet demand even as building costs significantly outpace inflation.” A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the February reading of 772,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. New single-family home inventory was up 33% over last year, rising to a 6.3 months’ supply, with 407,000 available for sale. However, just 35,000 of those are completed and ready to occupy. The median sales price rose to $400,600 in February, and is up 10.6% compared to a year ago even as residential construction material costs are up 20% over the same period. Regionally, compared to the previous month, new home sales increased 59.3% in the Northeast, increased 6.3% in the Midwest, decreased 1.7% in the South and decreased 13.0% in the West. n
Housing starts firm, builder confidence slips one point
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espite production bottlenecks and rising construction costs, total housing starts, led by a strong multifamily reading posted a solid gain in February as demand stays strong and existing inventory remains at low levels. Overall housing starts increased 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.77 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is 22.3% above the rate posted a year earlier. The February reading of 1.77 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 5.7% to a 1.22 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos,
increased 9.3% to an annualized 554,000 pace. “Builders continue to start homes as the demand for new construction remains solid in a market lacking inventory of previously owned homes,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter. “However, construction costs are rising too quickly, which threatens housing affordability conditions in 2022 as interest rates rise.” “The February pace for apartment construction was the best since January 2020 and we expect the multifamily sector to continue to show strength as the economy reopens,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “On the single-family front, the count of homes permitted but not started construction reached a fourmonth high in February, rising to 152,000. This is an indication of the ongoing supply-chain delays and cost issues that are limiting the pace of
Economic outlook and housing affordability NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz recently provided this housing industry overview.
A
n elevated pace of inflation will challenge the economy for at least the next few years, prompting tighter credit market conditions. The broadest measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is up 7.9% over the last 12 months, reaching a 40-year high. Although this rate of inflation should ease, albeit slowly, it will remain above the Federal Reserve’s target for price changes. This is particularly true for housing rents, which make up approximately one-third of overall inflation data. Rents are rising quickly, and those increases will persist in the CPI data as leases are renewed in the coming year. Higher prices continue to affect the building material market as well. Led by recent gains in lumber and OSB pricing, combined with limited availability of numerous types of building products, building materials in aggregate are up 20.4% over the last year and 31.3% since January 2020. As a result of these inflationary forces, the Federal Reserve enacted its first federal funds
rate hike in March, increasing the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points. The economic projections provided by the central bank indicate that markets may expect six additional 25 basis-point increases through the end of 2022. Chairman Powell indicated in his commentary this week that the Fed is prepared to increase by 50 basis points, if needed. Additionally, the Fed will provide details later this
home building in many markets.” On a regional basis compared to the previous month, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 28.7% higher in the Northeast, 15.3 % higher in the Midwest, 11.4% higher in the South and 11.4% lower in the West. Overall permits decreased 1.9% to a 1.86 million unit annualized rate in February. Single-family permits remained essentially flat, falling 0.5% to a 1.21 million unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 4.4% to an annualized 652,000 pace. Looking at regional permit data compared to the previous month, permits are 22.7% higher in the Northeast, 8.4% lower in the Midwest, 5.5 % lower in the South and 2.1% higher in the West. There are now 799,000 single-family homes under construction, a 28.3% year-over-year gain. Builder confidence slips one point Ongoing lumber and building material supply side constraints, rising construction costs and expectations of higher interest (continued on page 15)
year on how it will reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet. Such a reduction will have an impact on long-term rates, including mortgage interest rates. The intended monetary policy path of the Fed is more accelerated than what NAHB had built into its initial 2022 forecast. Our concern is that the Fed will move too quickly, invert the yield curve, and risk an economic recession. Monetary policy tightening can help normalize financial conditions and tamper inflation, but it cannot solve current economic challenges by itself. Indeed, tighter monetary policy will not help produce more lumber, building materials and other items necessary to tame building material price growth. In addition to construction cost challenges, higher mortgage rates will further reduce housing affordability conditions. New home sales declined 2% in February because of these factors. Nonetheless, builder confidence remains solid at a level of 79, per the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. However, the measure of future sales expectations dropped 10 points, a significant decline representing growing concerns for housing demand in a tightening credit environment. The level of housing demand and recession risk will be the key factors for the industry’s growth, particularly throughout the next two years. n April, 2022
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Builders SHOW Exhibit Tent 13
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The Builders Show exhibit tent will be located on the south side of the HBAMT building and measure 120 x 40 feet
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boasting space for forty-five (47) 10 x 5 feet exhibit spaces.
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DON’T MISS OUT ON THIS TERRIFIC OPPORTUNITY!
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Return your registration form to the HBAMT today to reserve
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EXHIBITORS are provided exhibit space inside the exhibit tent. SPONSORS enjoy all the benefits of an exhibitor, including access to the tent, without being provided exhibit space in the tent.
Your name: ______________________________________
Cell: __________________ Email: ____________________
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Number of booths you’re purchasing (no more than two): _______ x $595 = your total payment: $____________
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I am registering as an: r EXHIBITOR - $595 per booth r SPONSOR - $550
EXHIBITORS: Top 3 booth location preferences (not guaranteed):
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2022 SPRING BUILDERS SHOW EXHIBITORS/SPONSORS REGISTRATION FORM Secure your spot today by returning the registration form cnicley@hbamt.org provided below to the HBAMT today!
Company: _______________________________________
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Return your registration form to the HBAMT today!
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Exhibit spaces are limited to two per company.
SPONSORS: will be charged $550. Credit Card ______________________________________ Credit Card # ______________________ Exp. __________ Credit Card V-Code _______________
The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip. It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.
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What first-time home buyers really want
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he recent NAHB study, What Home Buyers Really Want, 2021 Edition, asked first-time buyers to rate more than 200 home and community features using a four-tier scale: essential, desirable, indifferent and do
not want. The chart to the right shows the ten features “most wanted” by first-time home buyers, based on the percentage of buyers rating a feature either desirable or essential. At the top of the list according to this metric is a laundry room, rated essential or desirable by 83 percent of first-time buyers, followed by a ceiling fan and exterior lighting, each rated essential or desirable by 81 percent. Four of the features most wanted by first-time buyers are kitchen features: a double kitchen sink and walk-in pantry (each rated essential or desirable by 80 percent of first-time buyers), drinking water filtration (78 percent) and table space for eating (77 percent). Two are outdoor features: a patio (rated essential or desirable by 78 percent) in addition to exterior lighting. Rounding out the top ten are hardwood flooring for living spaces on the main floor (80 percent) and security cameras (78 percent). The list of features most wanted by first-time buyers is similar to the list for home buyers in general, although buyers in general tend to give the features slightly higher ratings. A laundry room, for example, is number one on both lists, but is rated essential or desirable by 87 percent of buyers overall, compared to 83 percent of the first-timers. The ratings of many features tend to be positively correlated with income, and first time buyers have somewhat lower incomes (a median of $65,000, compared to $79,000 for home buyers in general). The most noticeable difference between the features most wanted by first-time buyers and buyers in general, however, is the absence of energy saving features on the first-time buyers’ top ten list. Among buyers in general, ENERGY STAR rated windows ranked as the #4 most wanted feature and ENERGY STAR rated appliances ranked #9. A front porch also made the top ten list among buyers in general. On the other hand, drinking water filtration, security cameras and a kitchen table for eating failed to make the top ten list for buyers in general. In addition to the features first-time home buyers really want, many readers are probably interested in the features they really do not want. The chart at the lower right shows the 10 most unwanted features based on the share of first-time buyers rating a feature “do not want” (i.e., a first-time buyer is unlikely to purchase a home if it has that particular feature). By this criterion, an elevator ranks as the single most unwanted feature, explicitly rejected by 46 percent of first-time buyers, followed by a golf course in the community, not wanted by 42 percent. At least 40 percent of first-time buyers are also unlikely
to buy a home with glass walls or cork flooring on the main floor living spaces. The ten features most unwanted by first-time buyers are nearly the same as the ten most unwanted features for home buyers in general. The only difference is that “dual toilets in the primary bathroom” makes the most unwanted list for home buyers in general, and bamboo flooring does not. n
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Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes The 2022 Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke
ADVERTISE & EXHIBIT
If your company depends on new homes or
related products, furnishings or services, here’s one opportunity you can’t pass up -- the 2022 Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke! Secure your space in the Plan Book or reserve an Exhibit Booth today.
THE PARADE PLAN BOOK
THE PARADE EXHIBIT BOOTH
At every Parade event each attendee is handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate - the Parade Plan Book.
Here’s your chance to demonstrate your product or service to the thousands of qualified prospects who pass through the Parade of Homes exhibit center when they enter and leave the show. As with Plan Book advertising, the exhibit center produces virtually all pre-qualified customers!
The Plan Book is a tremendous opportunity to put your message into the hands of pre-qualified customers who refer to the book several months after the Parade of Homes is over! Plan Book Advertising Rates Half Page 7.5” x4.75” (Horizontal) Full Page 7.5”x10” 8.75”x 11.25” (B1eed) *Page One 7.5”x10” 8.75”x11.25” (Bleed) *Inside Front Cover *Inside Back Cover Double Truck Back Cover
$800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,100 $2,300 $2,840 $3,250
*SPECIALTY LOCATIONS SOLD. Email jargo@hbamt.org for ad specs and availability.
It’s like opening up shop and having thousands of prospects visit your showroom the first two weeks you’re in business. What other medium could come close to producing those kinds of results? The Parade ranks first of all home shows in the nation and you can take advantage of the prestige this show enjoys. Exhibit Booth Price? $750 Each booth in the Parade of Homes exhibit center measures 10’ x 6’ at the front entrance where patrons must enter and exit -- perfect for eye-popping kiosks and marketing publications!
2022 PARADE OF HOMES - PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES COMMITMENT FORM Return completed form to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 | Email: jargo@hbamt.org
PLAN BOOK AD - please check the size of ad you would like to secure in the 2022 Plan Book:
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EXHIBIT BOOTH SPACE - please check here to secure your 2022 Exhibit Booth Space: r Your name: ____________________________________ Company: _____________________________________ Cell: _________________________________________ Email: _________________________________________ Total amount being paid: $___________ Credit Card _______________________ Credit Card # _______________________________ Exp. ____________ Credit Card V-Code _______________
The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip.
It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.
Signature ____________________________________________________________________________________ April, 2022
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SPIKE REPORT Randall Smith David Hughes Nick Wisniewski Jim McLean
Twenty-two SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of February, 2022. Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Mitzi Spann 792 Bill King 776 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 Trey Lewis 531 James Carbine 431 Jimmy Franks 388 Jennifer Earnest 381 David Crane 344 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Davis Lamb 224 Steve Moody 221 Sonny Shackelford 219 Jackson Downey 182
rates continue to negatively affect builder sentiment even as buyer demand remains relatively solid. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved two points lower to 79 in March from a downwardly revised reading in February, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the third straight month that builder sentiment has declined and the first time that the HMI has dipped below the 80-point mark since last September. “While builders continue to report solid buyer traffic numbers, helped by historically low existing home inventory and a persistent housing deficit, increasing development and construction costs have taken a toll on builder confidence,” said Konter. “We call upon policymakers to act now to ease supply-chain woes. Improving access to lumber, OSB and other materials will help builders increase the supply of badly-needed housing and fight inflation.” “The March HMI recorded the lowest future sales expectations in the survey since June 2020,” said Dietz. “Builders are reporting growing concerns that increasing construction costs (up 20% over the last 12 months) and expected higher interest rates connected to tightening (continued from page 7)
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Life Spikes Steve Shalibo 165 Tonya Esquibel 153 Steve Cates 146 Harry Johnson 146 Brandon Rickman 145 C.W. Bartlett 138 Jordan Clark 129 B.J. Hanson 122 Michael Dillon 121 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Justin Hicks 116 Dave McGowan 116 Edsel Charles 111 Wiggs Thompson 108 Duane Vanhook 108 Keith Porterfield 84 Sam Henley 80 Jody Derrick 78 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 75 Ron Schroeder 72 Nelson Bordeau 71 Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Christina James 66 Andrew Neuman 66 Joe Dalton 59
Brian Sebring 56 John Broderick 55 Rick Olszewski 54 John Ganschow 51 Rachel Holloway 51 Ryan Meade 50 Frank Jones 46 Ricky Scott 45 Don Mahone 31 Jim Hysen 29 Jeffrey Caruth 28 Maverick Green 25 Spikes Perry Pratt 23 Margaret Tolbert 21 Tammy Chambers 18 Lisa Underwood 17 Nicole Bird 15 Rob Pease 15 John Nehrenz 14 Danny Clawson 11 Curt Haynes 11 Chris Richey 10 Eli Routh 10 George Simpson 10 Bob Bellenfant 8 Clint Mitchell 8 Matt Dryden 7 McClain Franks 6
monetary policy will price prospective home buyers out of the market. While low existing inventory and favorable demographics are supporting demand, the impact of elevated inflation and expected higher interest rates suggests caution for the second half of 2022.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 86 and the gauge measuring sales expectations in the next six months dropped a 10 points to 70. The component charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 67. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell seven points to 69, the Midwest dropped one point to 72 and the South fell three points to 83. The West moved up one point to 90. n April, 2022
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APRIL CALENDAR Sunday
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Tuesday
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Wednesday
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CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson. Next meeting: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Kelly Beasley. Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Tuesday, April 19th. Topic: “Networking Like a Boss!” Join us for a networking event with 10 of Middle Tennessee’s top builders! More details coming soon. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.
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ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313. SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Margaret Tolbert The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon. Next meeting: Thursday, April 14, starting at 10:00 a.m. Topic: Wilson County New Home Tour! Tour three new Wilson County communities during this month’s special event! Free with RSVP thanks to our sponsors: Goodall Homes, DR Horton, Landmark Homes of Tennessee, Lennar, Celebration Homes, and WCAR. See page eight (8) for more details. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.
COUNCILS HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Eli Routh. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Thursday of the month at varying locations. Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined. Topic: to be announced. Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265. MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Lisa Underwood. The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, April 7, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: Special guest Brittany Comp*, enneagram coach and personal coach, from Sincerely Be Consulting. SMC members free thanks to Drees Homes; non-SMC members $20 w/RSVP, $25 w/o RSVP *Brittany Comp appearance courtesy of Tolbert Marketing and Events. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.
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