ISSN 2294-1274
ATLANTIC TREATY ASSOCIATION
Volume 2 - Issue 10, October 2012
ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SECURITY Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the implications of Arctic climate change for global security. Analysts are concerned that competition over newly accessible natural resources could lead to conflicts. The five states bordering the Arctic Ocean, known as the “Arctic Five” nations - Canada, Russia, the United States, Denmark, and Norway - are all highly interested in these resources, as are other entities including the EU and China. Despite the potential for conflict, the changes in the Arctic also present certain opportunities. As the Bering Strait is increasingly less blocked by ice, especially in summer, travel time between Asia and Europe can be reduced through this northern
As Arctic ice melts, ships have a easier time passing through (Photo: SeaNews)
Contents:
“shortcut.” This has the potential to reduce costs and
Global Pulse: Why the Arctic Matters: Care More, Worry Less
increase trade.
Jason Wiseman examines the issues surrounding global efforts to sustain a cooperative
The role of the international community, includ-
framework among nations with a stake in the Arctic Circle. He argues that Canada, with the
ing NATO, should be to ensure that disputes over
assistance of NATO, should take the diplomatic lead and work to prevent conflicts.
Arctic resources can be resolved peacefully. One of
Arctic Security: All Quiet on the Northern Front
the key organizations is the Arctic Council, an inter-
Djan Sauerborn and Bastian Matteo Scianna examine the claims that climate change in the
governmental forum which consists of the “Arctic
Arctic will lead to an economic “gold rush” in which various countries come into conflict
Five” plus Finland, Iceland, and Sweden. In May
over Arctic resources. The authors conclude that the risk of such conflicts is overstated, and
2011, the Council members signed their first binding
that most disputes in the area have a high probability of being resolved peacefully.
agreement, the International Search and Rescue
The Canadian Arctic Dossier
Treaty. The Council should build on this positive first
Amina Abdullayeva presents an overview of the various disputes between Canada and other
step and continue to promote cooperative measures.-
actors over Arctic territory. She concludes that Canada should attempt to resolve these
Linda Benesch
conflicts through diplomatic skill and scientific evidence rather than force.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
1
GLOBAL PULSE Why The Arctic Matters: Care More,Worry Less By Jason Wiseman
As one of the most important emerging challenges for sever-
nautical miles if possible.
al NATO members in the 21st century, the Arctic Circle has
Second, in an effort to avoid political tensions, each country
become a critical issue for the future of the northern hemi-
in the area founded and joined the Arctic Council in 1996 to
sphere.
establish a forum where issues can be discussed and resolved. This Council is made up of eight members: Canada, US, Nor-
Overview
way, Denmark, Russia, Iceland, Sweden and Finland but has
Although it is a massive area overlapping the nautical borders of several states, the Arctic is also a highly regulated area making legal and political questions simpler than expected.
both permanent and ad-hoc observer states that includes France, Great Britain, Germany, China and several others. For the eight member states, each country is obligated to
For starters, the Arctic Circle
submit its claim in the Arctic with-
is a sea surrounded by a landmass
in 10 years of ratifying UNCLOS.
(not vice-versa) and is thus regu-
This ensures that each state
lated by UN Laws of the Sea
acknowledges the framework and
(UNCLOS). Under international
is bound by international law to
law, this means that all states own
resolve any disputes through the
up to 200 nautical miles off their
forum.
own coasts. Thus, Canada, Den-
Third, as the ice caps continue to
mark and Norway each own the
melt the Arctic takes on a whole
fish, minerals, oil and gas within
new meaning. Transit.
200 nautical miles of their north-
With the opening of the Arctic
ernmost landmasses. In addition,
Passage Way, the need to rely on
each state can claim an extra 150
these routes is much reduced. So
miles if they can scientifically
much so that the Arctic Passage
prove that the seabed is connected
Way will save roughly 40% of the
to the continental slope within
distance, fuel costs and carbon
their own 200 nautical mile range.
footprint for all sea traders using
According to a US geological survey, the Arctic region holds
this new transit route. The Arctic Circle (Photo: Wikimedia)
roughly one fourth of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas, 84% of which lies beneath the ocean floor. Oil companies already involved in the region include:
Challenges
There are several issues that have arisen in the arctic that have complicated the framework for cooperation.
ConocoPhillips, Statoil, ExxonMobil, BP, Imperial Oil, Chevron
First, as a resource rich and strategically important area,
and Royal Dutch Shell. Due to the potential richness of this re-
Russia views the Arctic as the solution to their socio-economic
gion, it is safe to assume that each state will claim the extra 150
problems and are dead set on being the dominant player in this
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
2
spite having Permanent Participant status at the Arctic Council, region. Because of this, Russia has begun a major drilling and
the role they will play in the future of the Arctic is uncertain.
expansion program in the area which has made fellow Arctic
Finally, as Arctic states compete to strengthen their hand,
states weary of developing their own Arctic borders too much
they will need to invest more heavily in vessels and equipment,
out of fear of provoking Russia.
something everyone but Russia seems reluctant to do. As of
Having recently established the world’s northernmost port
now, Russia leads the world with 25 icebreakers, with Finland in
in Dudinka, while also planning on establishing an Arctic brigade
second place with 9, while Canada is third with only 6 icebreak-
on the border with Norway, Russia is heavily invested in devel-
ers. Many of which desperately need to be refurbished.
oping this area and occasionally sends submarines around the Arctic to remind its neighbours that it is not to be ignored.
According to the US Congressional Research Service, the Americans need at least $3 billion in additional vessels and
Second, Canada has a territorial dispute with Denmark at the
equipment just to provide basic services along their coastline.
top of the world on a little rock called Hans Island. This issue is
Without a sufficient amount of functioning icebreakers, we will
yet to be resolved.
all have to rely on Russia’s generosity to clear the paths for
Third, due to the high volume of Rare Earth Elements (REE)
trade.
in the Arctic, China has become a very interested party in the region. Since 97% of the worlds REE are currently exported by
Conclusion
China, resources in the Arctic have forced Beijing to pay close
It is critical that NATO members adhere to the established
attention to this region. Having already signed energy agree-
framework and continue in their efforts to sustain a cooperative
ments with Iceland, China has used its economic influence to get
framework amongst Arctic nations. The current lack of Canadian -Russian cooperation, US investment and
a proxy seat at the Arctic Council. What kind of role Chinese investment and political influence will play is largely dependent on the future of US-China relations.
For the future of NATO’s Arctic Policy, its members must encourage Canada to take the diplomatic lead
formulated EU policy are all major obstacles to resolving any problems. Since the US role is small and the economic pressures facing the EU will continue for the foreseeable future, Canada
Fourth, Russia, China and the EU are all weary of the NATO card being played by anyone in the re-
is in the best position to lead diplomatic efforts and ensure that
gion. This has led to a suppression of security dialogue and am-
the Arctic be adequately shared while avoiding any potential
biguous communication between Arctic member states.
danger of conflict. For the future of NATO’s Arctic policy, its
Fifth, environmental disasters cannot be ruled out. Since it’s an iced environment, prevention and emergency response are
members must encourage Canada to take the diplomatic lead to ensure that policy remains focused and conflicts are prevented.
even more difficult. The ability to clean up an oil spill or per-
NATO must assist in this effort by encouraging and support-
form a rescue mission on a sea of ice requires a high level of pro-
ing its Arctic members by taking small measures such as joint
fessional training and operational capability that is yet to be real-
scientific and environmental projects or joint coastal training of
ized by any of the Arctic states.
search and rescue missions, to help ease the tension and build
Sixth, states are currently unable to agree on how best to
trust between all Arctic players. Failure to do so undercuts
deal with threats such as eco-terrorism, “COD Wars” or the
NATO’s potential as a stabilizing force and incentivizes states to
potential for Greenland to “Break Away” from Denmark. Con-
disregard the institutional framework set forth by the Arctic
tingency plans must be crafted for all these scenarios. Failure to
Council.
do so can polarize the Arctic Council due to each state’s own national interests and domestic pressures, causing a rift throughout the Council that can eventually lead to a massive disruption in Arctic dialogue and cooperation. Seventh, people live in this area. Depending on where you
Jason Wiseman is the Program Assistant for the Atlantic Treaty Association and a Senior Research Analyst with the Atlantic Council of Canada. He holds an MA in Government with a Specialization in Counter-Terrorism and Homeland Security and a BAH in Political Science. .
draw the boundary, almost four million people inhabit the Arctic today. This includes indigenous peoples and recent arrivals. DeAtlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
3
Arctic Security: All Quiet on the Northern Front by Bastian Matteo Scianna and Djan Sauerborn
W
north. A US geological survey found that the Arctic contains
hen Russia planted a flag on the ground of
around 30% of global unexplored gas and 13% of the unexplored
the Arctic in August 2007 numerous articles
oil, with most of it in off-shore regions. This led to claims that the
followed
upcoming
Arctic has the potential of turning into the backbone of 21st century
“scramble for the Arctic”, a new geopolitical hotspot with conflicts
oil producing. However, estimates vary greatly and all numbers
being waged in the high north. Climate change has an effect on this
have to be read with caution. Predictions about easy access to these
region and will continuously transform its economic and political
resources have proven to be incorrect, and even with rising oil pric-
character. Yet, the often openly postulated panic does not match the
es the costs of exploiting oil and gas in the Arctic remain too high to
realities on the ground.
be economically feasible. Unlike gold, oil needs large investments,
that
described
a
infrastructure and companies. Additionally, the costs for transport
An Arctic “Gold Rush”?
to distant locations remain too high, with gas prices rising. There-
Climate change has turned into an overarching global phenome-
fore, the Iceland based expert Professor Valur Ingimundarson wrote
non and one area that will be visibly affected in its entirety is the
in a report for the European Parliament that the complexity of prob-
Arctic. Man-made global warming differs in intensity across the
lems facing beneficial exploration of natural resources in the Arctic
globe. The Polar Regions are experiencing the greatest temperature
is further enhanced by the rough climate in the high north which
increase and are often considered to be a global “early warning sys-
makes other, more easily accessible, resource locations more attrac-
tem”. The repercussions of an increasingly ice free Arctic has already
tive. Fishing grounds and agriculture are also affected. While the
altered the daily life of the indigenous populations within the region,
former introduces new possibilities for exploitation and possible
as traditional lifestyles can no longer be pursued and patterns of life
quarrels and fishing rights, the latter influences the very way of life
have had to be changed accordingly. Additionally, if ice on Green-
for the population in the Arctic.
land breaks off from the landmass, this will cause sea levels to rise. Thus, the local effects in the Arctic will turn into a global concern.
With the Arctic ice melting rapidly, new sea lanes might become a reality sooner rather than later. The speed of trade could
Yet, ironically, the Arctic has gained more attention in
be enhanced and geopolitical hotspots such as the Suez Canal, the
recent years because the consequences of climate change also bear
Gulf of Aden or the Strait of Malacca could be circumvented. The
possibilities for a “race towards resources.” New sea trade lanes and
new route would also save fuel, thus reducing costs. However,
geopolitical concerns led many to fear a “Gold Rush” in the high
there are also obstacles to an increase in Arctic shipping. Protecting trade littoral waters, and the environment are paramount for a potential success story. Charles Emmerson (The Future History of the Arctic, 2011, p.185) states that a less icy Arctic may see more storms. Ice variability may pose too many risks and could lead to time delays regarding the shipment of sensitive cargo. Emmerson concludes that “large-scale trans-Arctic shipping is a decade or more away.” The shifting dynamics of the Northeastern and the Northwest Passage have the potential to spur tensions between Norway and Russia and the US and Canada, respectively. In summary, the exploitation of resources and an economi-
The Polar Regions are Experiencing the Greatest Temperature Increases Due to Climate Change (Photo: CBC)
cally feasible transport to the customers remain medium-term goals. There is no easy way to access the resource rich Arctic. Additionally, the great majority of resources were found to be situated in the
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
4
Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of the states and not in “disputed” territory.
Who Owns What? UNCLOS and the Arctic Council Given the numerous resources spread over such a vast territory, a number of countries raise claims and have interests. There are mainly three forms of mediation: the UN, the Arctic Council and several bi- and multilateral treaties. Generally, the Arctic states consist of the “Arctic Five” being Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and USA. Additionally the Arctic states are usually considered
NATO Troops in Norway (Photo: Wikimedia)
to include Finland, Sweden and Iceland, but the indigenous population has very little accurate representation. The Arctic Five held
as a result of global warming. The changes would be too small to be
meetings which ended in declarations to respectfully and peacefully
worth the diplomatic and political costs of reopening discussions.
solve disputes (Ilulissat Declaration 2008), yet led to outspoken
Maritime borders in the Arctic will probably remain as they
frustration by Finland, Sweden and Iceland. However, only the
are.”(2011, p.116)
Arctic Five can legally claim rights on Arctic territory which still
There is a second tool used to mediate between the Arctic
leaves us with the pressing question of: “who owns what” in the
Five - the Arctic Council set up by the Ottawa Declaration in 1996.
Arctic?
It combines several initiatives of peace, fostering dialogues and susThe United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
tainable development in the Arctic. The initiative goes back to Gor-
(UNCLOS) serves as a legal framework where states have submitted
bachev’s call for a “peaceful Arctic” and bundles all Arctic states in a
claims since 1982, for example regarding seabeds that go beyond
flexible forum. Whilst meeting every two years at the ministerial
their exclusive zones of 200 nautical miles. UNCLOS is generally
level, there are also numerous permanent bodies who mainly tackle
accepted as arbiter, even though the US did not sign the convention.
environmental concerns and development. Besides indigenous
Yet, beyond the seabed, states can also claim that their continental
groups, a great variety of stakeholders can benefit from and take
shelf forms a natural extension and thus is their territory. Different
part in this process of knowledge creation. The Council formulates
court responsibilities and regulations of international law make it
guidelines and recommendations and can thus function as a forum
very difficult to create a binding character. Thus, maritime border
for dialogue and exchange of knowledge and interests. It should not be dissolved prima facie as a “paper tiger”
disputes and land questions are intertwined. Time also plays a role as states only have 10 years after signing UNCLOS to submit their claims. Making such a claim involves a lot of documents
Disputes Do Not Necessarily Lead to Tensions or Conflicts.The will for cooperation was demonstrated in the case of Norway and Russia in the Barents Sea.
authority. It remains however a matter of fact that neither the UN organs nor the Arctic Council has any legal authority in settling disputes. Unsurprisingly, this
and research material which is expensive. For this reasons, countries such as Canada and the US have pooled
just because it does not possess binding
often leads to insecurity.
resources and strengthened cooperation. Disputes do not necessarily
Certain parties, especially non Arctic Five states, occasion-
lead to tensions or conflicts. The will for cooperation was demon-
ally call for a more binding legal framework and list the Antarctica
strated in the case of Norway and Russia in the Barents Sea. A con-
treaty as an example. However, the Arctic is different as no one
flict between the US and Canada over the Beaufort Sea also seems
owns it and it is a sea surrounded by land not vice versa. Additional-
highly unlikely.
ly, there is no support by any of the Arctic Five for such a treaty and
So beyond the aspect of uncertainty and overlapping legal
such a complex multilateral task could take very long and would
frameworks, there is a modus vivendi and customary law approaches
constitute an effort no one is willing to accept. Nonetheless, with
to settle different interests. As Charles Emmerson stated in his “The
decreasing ice coverage and more trade in the Arctic, it will gradual-
Future History of the Arctic”: “Coastal states in the Arctic are un-
ly become more difficult for the Arctic states to prevent initiatives
likely to accept a redrawing of their maritime borders, even if some
aimed at generating greater internationalization and reluctance to
areas of land, say in northern Siberia or Alaska, become submerged
accept an Arctic Five mare nostrum with climate change in this partic-
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
5
ular region having global effects.
gion. As a nation dependant on energy exports, the ice cannot melt
Beyond the group of states mentioned one has to consider
fast enough for Moscow. This strategic train of thought also unveils
more players involved. The EU and China share a great interest in
itself in the Russian Federation’s State policy “In the Arctic until
the possibility of new resources and shipping lanes and were there-
2020 and beyond”. This program is aimed at training and equipping
fore always interested in influencing the Arctic Council and attaining
specifically trained “Arctic warriors”. A closer look unravels the fact
an observatory status. The problem of the indigenous people cannot
that these Special Forces would mainly be used to protect the north-
be highlighted enough. The Arctic Council solves some of the disad-
ern regions of Russia. Most of the Russian air fleet is not capable of
vantages they face. As it is often the case the weakest lobby group is
operating in the Arctic region. Surveillance and reconnaissance
hit by the consequences the hardest. Globally operating companies
flights have, however, been on the rise since 2007 as have Ship Sub-
such as Exxon and Shell and environmentalists such as Greenpeace
mersible ballistic Nuclear (SSBN) missions. Russia’s biggest asset is
are also important groups who pursue their own interests.
the high end ice breaker fleet and the experience of navigating through the Arctic.
A “Great Game” in the High North?
The increasing role played by non-state actors and the resulting
Together with the fear of a new “Gold Rush” and the hardships
security concerns make the protection of the new coastal waters
in governing the Arctic, there is a perceived threat of a militariza-
more important and the Kremlin is not alone in acquiring new
tion of the Arctic. During the Cold War this marked the shortest
equipment and technologies. Yet, Russia has the know-how but
possible way for the US and the Soviet Union to attack each other
lacks the complete port folio, especially regarding finances and tech-
directly. Thus, countries like Iceland had a strategic role for NATO. Today the problem remains that the Arctic Five remain skeptical about outside interference by other organizations, such as the EU, NATO
nology.
The Arctic Five remain skeptical about outside interference , yet can be truly pragmatic when it comes to eradicating diverging interests
or states like China, yet can be truly prag-
In his background paper “Military Capabilities in the Arctic”, Siemon T. Wezeman summarizes and analyzed the repertoire of Arctic States and found that even though all other Arctic Five states are
matic and cooperative when it comes to eradicating diverging inter-
NATO members, their stance on NATO involvement and the secu-
ests.
rity concerns differ. Canada is very skeptical about using the NATO Russian muscle flexing rhetoric and repeated “public rela-
-Russia forum to negotiate, where the European states have Russian
tions” statements on the importance of the Arctic for the Russian
interests “next door” and often feel neglected and unsupported as
energy sector should not be overstated, as they often have domestic
the NATO “front line” states in this respect. Canada and Norway
policy motivation. Moscow showed remarkable willingness to coop-
invested in new coast guard ships and shifted some interest to
erate with the Arc-
“Arctic
tic states and negoti-
whereas the US and
ate disputes. A clear
Denmark do not see
lack of environmen-
any benefits in such a
tal concern marks a
policy.
contrast
to
this
Washington did not
positive
develop-
get influenced by the
security”
Especially
ment. Nevertheless,
“Arctic
Russia strictly op-
whereas Copenhagen
poses the involve-
has to fear a Green-
ment of any other
landic
organization
independence
states
in
or
fever”
strive
for with
Arctic
increasing resource
affairs and it should
richness. A SIPRI
not come as a sur-
The Canadian Rangers (Photo: Canadian National Defense)
prise that Russia is very keen on shifting its focus to the Arctic re-
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
report by Kristofer
Bergh thus highlights the need for a closer alignment of US and
6
Canadian interests for an improved standing and leading example for
position, Denmark profits from multiple different geostrategic bases
Arctic stewardship.
and outposts. Thus, when looking at recent developments one has
Canada has made it quite clear in the recent years that its
to put this in context. It might be true that the Canadian rangers
arctic claims should be taken seriously. In 2010 Foreign Affairs Min-
have been strengthened, that the Russians set up brigades of Arctic
ister Lawrence Cannon made this abundantly transparent during his
military personnel and that Norwegian military units have been
visit to Moscow, basically stating that Canada’s “Arctic Sovereignty”
shifted further north, but these are all steps implemented to patrol
was a priority. Both Russia and Canada claim the 1,800 kilometer
and protect the borders that are and NOT the borders that should
submarine Lomonosov range, between Canada’s Ellesmere Island
be. Further, given the size and scope of these steps one cannot iden-
and Russia’s new Siberian Islands which both countries see as a po-
tify any form of aggressive militarization. Additionally, the US, as
tential source for large fuel deposits. Canada has not only found a
the greatest military power, is pursuing a wait-and-see strategy as
new sense of confidence, but also has the technical and organization-
Washington could increase Arctic forces rapidly if the need should
al clout to back its aspirations. From an operational standpoint,
arise.
Canada is able to act flexibly and swiftly due its four secondary air-
Conclusion
craft bases in northern Canada. The 1.5 billion Canadian dollar project “Joint Uninhabited Surveillance and Target Acquisition Sys-
The economic gold rush is not likely to happen under current
tem” (JUSTAS) for maritime and Arctic patrol, is another indicator
circumstances. Additionally, the resources do mainly not lie in dis-
for Canada’s commitment. Besides five large and six small icebreak-
puted territory. Economic exploitation will still take decades to be
ers and fifteen major surface warships and four conventional subma-
fully effective and economically reasonable. Everyone seems willing
rines, the numbers of the Canadian Rangers, a lightly equipped,
to settle and to negotiate disputes or confronting interests. Even
highly professional paramilitary unit have increased from 4,100 in 2008 to 5,000 in 2010. Canada is well prepared, but the question remains for what exactly? The Arctic region is at best a low
though the international organizations and
The demand for security and stability amongst the actors will surely not melt as rapidly as the ice.
profile security concern for the US. It was
councils in place are far from perfect they constitute an effective and flexible tool for negotiation. Stewardship is needed as well as a balance between national egoisms and global solutions for global concerns. It is an
not mentioned in a 2012 report on security priorities of the 21st
imperative to find equilibrium between legal rights, states interests
century. Although the US has the most capabilities of all five actors
and accountability for their actions.
it has hardly any troops specifically trained for Arctic missions. It has
The increase of Arctic military capabilities by some nations
less high end Ice breakers than Russia and the Navy only had one
does not mark militarization or a military build-up. A conflict would
experimental vessel, the MV Susitna, which was eventually sidelined
only become a realistic scenario if the Arctic were to get enmeshed
and reused for civilian purposes only. The SSB’,s however, do regu-
in other disputes or if rigid nationalistic momentum prevailed over
larly patrol the arctic waters. The trend at the moment is investing
pragmatic cooperation.
in civilian ice breakers which are deployed to the region for scientific purposes.
Clashing interests may only delay this process and no immediate threat of an escalation or militarization in the region is foresee-
The focus of Norway’s Arctic strategy lies in balancing Rus-
able or realistic. The demand for security and stability amongst the
sia’s influence. The nature of relations between Moscow and Oslo
actors will surely not melt as rapidly as the ice. So for the moment
has improved over the course of the last years. Cooperation is on
all is quiet on the Northern Front.
the rise in the European Arctic Area and military joint exercises between Norway and Russia have been held repeatedly. The fact that the Norwegian chief of defense has called for shutting down one of the two battalions of the “Brigade Nord” is a clear indication for the diminishing fear of Russian aggression. Denmark has forged the Arctic Military command between Greenland and the Faroe Island as a result of the adoption of a special Arctic Strategy adopted in 2011. Due to Greenland’s favorable
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
About the authors Djan Sauerborn is currently pursuing a Master's Degree in Political Science of South Asia and Anthropology at the Heidelberg University. His main interests are ethnic and civil conflict, civil-military relations, EU-South Asia relations. Bastian Matteo Scianna is pursuing his MA/MSc in International and World History at Columbia University and the LSE and Political Science. He focuses on European military history, the development of strategic thought and current European defense policy. 7
The Canadian Arctic Dossier by Amina Abdullayeva
Each year the ice shrinks by approximately 70,000 km2, the equivalent
N
of Lake Superior. o action is taken until a crisis hits, and the Arctic has
Whereas exact boundaries in the Far North were not of great
been no exception to this rule. Climate change brings
concern before, it is becoming increasingly important to delineate
with it unexpected developments, and suddenly we
Arctic territory clearly. The United Nations Convention on the Law of
find that a large swath of the ocean that used to be permanently un-
the Sea (UNCLOS), which came into effect in 1994, is the mechanism
der ice has turned into a source of major international disagreements.
used for this purpose. Countries that ratified the Convention can file
Canada, being among the five nations with an Arctic coast-
claims to parts of the world seas, in this case the Arctic Ocean, to the
line, is anxious to prove irrevocably its rights to the Arctic territory
UN Commission that will then evaluate them based on a scientific
that it considers its national property. To that end, Ottawa has been
method. According to UNCLOS, a country is entitled to 200 nautical
undertaking various projects, mostly military in nature, to assert its
miles of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off its coastline, in which it
sovereignty in the Far North. For example, Canada has embarked
controls the rights to marine resources. However, if a state can prove
upon the largest shipbuilding program in its history, which will in-
that its continental shelf extends beyond its EEZ, it gets the right to the
clude a $25 billion (CAD) order on warships. Some observers argue
seabed and the minerals that come with it for as long as its continental
that these and other recent defence expenditures are not justified by
shelf extends, but not the waters above that shelf outside of the EEZ.
Canada’s commitments in Afghanistan and other parts of the world, but by its policy of increasing militarisation in the Arctic.
There is currently no unified set of multilateral norms and agreements that govern the Arctic. The fast pace of the global warming
This article explores Canada’s Arctic policy by first setting
is forcing the states implicated in this region into action now, and any
the stage and explaining the background of the issues. Next, Canada’s
decisions made by the Arctic powers today will have a long-lasting
Arctic disputes are listed, followed by an examination of their signifi-
influence in the coming years.
cance. Finally, mechanisms of resolving these disputes are discussed.
Canada’s Arctic Disputes Background
Canada has unresolved territorial disputes with three other arctic
Before the rise in global temperature, the Arctic was regarded as
nations. They range from the big question of the ownership of the
“a massive quantity of ice and no one had particular pretensions to
Beaufort Sea to the small but potentially highly consequential disagree-
it,” says Russian energy expert Ser-
ment over Hans Island. The former issue
gey Pikin. Climate change has trans-
is between Canada and the US, while the
formed the situation – not only
latter involves Denmark. Canada also
drastically, but also rapidly. This is
needs to agree with Russia over certain
because the results of global warm-
continental ridges. The biggest question,
ing in the Arctic are far more dra-
that virtually pits Canada against the rest
matic than elsewhere due to the
of the world, is the status of the North-
sharper angle at which the sun’s rays
Northwest Passage Routes (Photo: Wikipedia)
strike the polar region during summer
west Passage.
Canada vs. the World
and because the retreating sea ice is turning into open water, which
The Northwest Passage is a sea route that connects the Atlantic and the
absorbs far more solar radiation. This dynamic is creating a vicious
Pacific Oceans by passing through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
melting cycle. According to Jacinthe Lacroix, senior science adviser
Seafarers and explorers dreamed for centuries of discovering this fabled
for Environment Canada, the ice in Canada's Arctic has shrunk 32%
passage that would serve as a shortcut to the riches of the Orient. Many
since the 1960s. In addition, global warming has raised the tempera-
lives were lost in the pursuit of this seaway, but when it was finally
ture in Canada’s northern archipelago by 1.2 degrees over the last
discovered, it became obvious that it would be unusable to the shipping
century - twice the average rate the temperature is rising worldwide.
industry, as most of it was permanently covered in ice with only small
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
8
parts navigable for a few summer months. However, with the advent
Canada uses the 1825 St. Petersburg Treaty between the British and
of global warming scientists are now predicting that it will be fully
Russian Empires, while the US asserts the principle of equidistance in
navigable in the coming decades. The Northwest Passage is roughly
determining the boundary. In practice this means that Canada
7000 kilometres shorter than the current shipping route through the
“contends that the maritime boundary should follow the land bound-
Panama Canal, which equals about two weeks of travel time. This
ary along the 141st meridian out 200 miles,” essentially extending
translates into millions and even billions of dollars in savings for the
the land boundary between Yukon and Alaska out to the ocean in a
shipping industry, as well as large potential gains for governments
straight line. The US, on the other hand, relies on the principle of
controlling the passage, and constitutes one of the primary reasons for
equidistance, which draws the boundary along a median line equidis-
Canada’s claim to it.
tant from the shores of both Canada and the US.
The problem is that many countries – notably the US – be-
As the two sides use different methods of measuring their
lieve that the Northwest Passage is an international strait. A waterway
Arctic maritime boundary, the dispute –not surprisingly – remains
that connects one area of high seas to another is considered an interna-
unresolved. In the meantime, the disputed area is a wedge the size of
tional strait, and the proponents of this argument claim that the
Lake Ontario, or approximately 21,000 km2. Ironically, beyond the
Northwest Passage qualifies as such because it links the Davis Strait
200 mile EEZ, “the Canadian line is better for the US - and the US
with the Beaufort Strait, both of which are
line better for Canada”.
part of high seas. To be clear, this does
Canada vs. Denmark
not question Canada’s territorial rights
One of the smallest disputes in the Arc-
over the passage, but challenges the no-
tic is the question of Hans Island. It is literally
tion that Ottawa can decide which vessels
the smallest issue, because the island has an area
could pass through. In case of internal
of only 1.3 km2. There are no reserves of any
waters, it is at the discretion of the con-
valuable minerals either. It is just a tiny island
cerned government to open or close pas-
between Canada’s Ellesmere Island and Denmark’s Greenland.
sage for any vessel; but if the Northwest Passage is acknowledged as an international water-
Hans Island (Photo: Wikipedia)
way, Canada’s permission will not be necessary.
Both countries have a strong claim to it, and
each has tried to assert its own sovereignty over the island via official
There have been several instances when the US sent its sub-
visits over the years. Each time a Canadian politician or squad of
marines or icebreakers through the Passage without asking Ottawa for
soldiers lands on the island, the Danish side issues an official state-
permission. The most serious case occurred in 1985, when the US
ment of protest and vice versa.
Coast Guard icebreaker “Polar Sea” travelled through the passage
Recently there have been reports that the two sides are pre-
without notifying the Canadian government. It was considered a di-
pared to reach a settlement whereby the island would be split into
rect challenge to Canadian sovereignty and caused a diplomatic row,
two - almost exactly in half, but these reports are as of yet uncon-
which resulted in the signing of the Arctic Co-operation Agreement in
firmed by either government. It can be politically embarrassing to
1988 by Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and President Ronald
acknowledge a compromise when each side had been signalling re-
Reagan. According to this agreement, the US promised never to send
lentless determination.
vessels through the Northwest Passage without Canada’s consent; in
Canada vs. Russia
return, Canada promised always to grant its consent. In addition,
This argument is over stretches of the Arctic Ocean as deter-
Canada reserves the right to send an accompanying vessel with the one
mined by the geology of the Lomonosov Ridge, a long trench run-
it lets through.
ning along the floor of the Arctic Ocean from Siberia to Ellesmere
Apart from that agreement, which was a diplomatic way to
Island. Whoever can prove that the ridge is an extension of their
overcome an embarrassing incident, no formal treaty has been reached
continental shelf will earn the right to claim the ocean floor and all
as to the status of the Northwest Passage. It remains a murky issue to
the minerals trapped in it, although not the waters over the seabed
this day, but time is running out.
itself.
Canada vs. the US
It turns out that there are two scientific ways to measure
The dispute between the US and Canada revolves around the delimita-
continental shelf, which is where the problems arise. “The juridical
tion lines that divide the Beaufort Sea between the two countries.
definition of continental shelf is broad in scope, as it does not differ-
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
9
entiate between the different types of continental margins.” Of
Another security issue is not environmental, but human. If
course, each country prefers the measurement that will give it more
the Passage becomes fully navigable, chances are that not only com-
territory. Those are the measurements they will put into their claims
mercial vessels, but various groups with malevolent intentions can
to UNCLOS. Matters get even more muddled because these claims
also take advantage of this route. Such groups could be comprised of
are confidential, thus, no one knows exactly what the others will
pirates, or terrorists, for example. Although a distant and unrealistic
write in their claims, turning it into a guessing game. One thing that
proposition for the moment, it is probably not more remote or un-
is certain is Canada’s obligation to submit its claims to UNCLOS
likely than Arctic ice melting at a rate no one had envisioned fifteen
before the 2013 deadline.
years ago. If temperatures rise enough for the Northwest Passage to become a profitable and preferred sea route, it is possible that smug-
The Stakes
glers, traffickers, or even pirates will try to take advantage of the
As the ice melts in the Arctic, Canada has both economic and securi-
business going through here. Once again, if that happens, Canada will
ty interests at stake. Security is mainly an issue with the Northwest
be the country most exposed to risk. Having the Northwest Passage
Passage, while the disputes over the Beaufort Sea, Hans Island, and
as its internal waters would give it the right to close it to any vessel it
the Lomonosov Ridge are about potential economic gains or losses.
chooses, but without that power it would have no control over who
If Canada loses the Northwest Passage to the international
goes through.
community the government will not be able to enforce Canadian
The second issue concerns economic interests. It is no secret
laws and regulations over it. As the environment of the region is
that the Arctic has large amounts of minerals and fossil fuels that
fragile, any accident could disrupt it dramatically. If an oil tanker, for
were previously unreachable. It is not known exactly how much
example, causes an accident
there is, but interestingly, most Eng-
while crossing the Passage,
lish-language sources state that Arctic
Canada will be the one to clean
energy reserves are roughly one-
up and pay the highest price –
quarter of the world’s supply, while
both literally for the clean-up
the Russian-language sources pre-
costs and in terms of the health
dominantly claim it is one-third. The
of its natural environment and
higher estimate on the Russian side
people who live in the North.
betrays their hope for more, which
We saw, for example, the
has to do with the fact that the energy
disastrous results of oil spills in
sector comprises 18.5% of the Rus-
the much safer waters of the
sian GDP, compared to 6.9% in Can-
Gulf of Mexico. According to World Wildlife Fund Canada,
“If an oil tanker causes an accident...Canada will pay the highest price (Photo: Wikipedia)
ada. Since Russia relies so much on its energy sector, it will try hard to make
an oil spill in the Arctic would be “impossible to clean up.” “[T]here
large gains in the Arctic. This is where the Lomonosov Ridge ac-
is a lot more capacity to respond to an oil spill in the Gulf; there is no
quires a price tag.
capacity in the Arctic – there is not even a harbour on the Arctic
In fact, none of the Arctic disputes are purely symbolic, despite the
slope of Alaska, which could be a staging base to respond to a spill.”
word “sovereignty” being used more often than any other.
Besides, the waters of the Northwest Passage are practically
While the issue with Russia is about economic power, the
uncharted, which makes sailing in them dangerous even when the ice
question of the Northwest Passage, as explained above, can seriously
has melted. Therefore, if Canada had more control over this seaway
undermine Canadian security. The wedge in the Beaufort Sea claimed
as part of its internal waters, it would have the right to impose tight-
by both the US and Canada is also potentially very rich in minerals,
er regulations on vessels passing through in order to ensure the safety
while Hans Island – worthless on its own – is important for Canada
of its land and people.
to be able to show that it can get what it claims. If it loses that, it may be difficult to reach favourable agreements in the other, more important, disputes.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
10
Dispute Resolution Mechanisms
these countries do not have an Arctic coastline, they would like to
There are three ways a country can choose to pursue dispute resolu-
be included, even if only as observers, in the decision-making pro-
tion in the Arctic: bilateral, multilateral, and institutional.
cess concerning such a large and important part of the world.
The bilateral method is the best, because often a dispute is just be-
Canada has the upper hand here, being the founding mem-
tween two states, so they can reasonably negotiate a settlement.
ber of the Arctic Council, which was created by the decree of the
Moreover, it was the method officially adopted by the five Arctic
1996 Ottawa Declaration. In addition, Canada will resume chair-
nations in the 2008 Ilulissat Declaration. It proved to be very effective
manship of the Council in 2013 for two years, which it can use to
when in 2010 Russia and Norway surprised the world by settling their
achieve peaceful resolution of the remaining disputes. However, it
40-year-old dispute over the Barents Sea. While Russia has a reputa-
needs to approach its future chairmanship with the right mindset and concrete goals. Diplomacy must take priority over
tion as a difficult partner, it can be surprisingly cooperative when it is in its interests. As Russia is heavily dependent on Arctic energy resources, it was in its interest to resolve the
Canada chairmanship of the Arctic Council must archive diplomatic success.
Barents dispute as soon as possible and start
populist rhetoric.
Conclusion Considering what is at stake - the security and
exploration. Canada should keep that in mind when dealing with Rus-
prosperity of Canada, as well as the health of its Northern environ-
sia over the Lomonosov Ridge.
ment - the government should base its Arctic strategy not on flashy
Instead, Canada tends to overreact to certain Russian actions
demonstrations of force and military capability, but on a flexible
in the Arctic. For example, Moscow lowered its flag to the Arctic
approach firmly rooted in legitimate international agreements and
seabed in 2007, and in June 2011 symbolically sailed two koch boats
backed by scientific proof. The Arctic Council should continue to be
(an ancient wooden boat used by early Russia explorers) in the Arctic
the forum to discuss all Arctic issues and UNCLOS should be the
Ocean. These actions caused a stir in Canada with angry official state-
tool to lay territorial claims. It should be reformed, if the current
ments condemning Russia’s “flag planting antics.” According to Mi-
version causes confusion, but this multinational institutional frame-
chael Byers, an international law professor from the University of
work should not be discarded at any cost. It is important, because it
British Columbia and an outspoken expert on Arctic issues, “everyone
bestows legitimacy on state actions in the Arctic, and also because it
else is sorting out their differences, we really are the laggards.”
makes bilateral agreements possible. Without the overarching
In this situation a multilateral and institutional framework can
framework provided by UNCLOS, countries would not be able to
be helpful. When Canada-Russia relations became particularly tense,
centre their negotiations on any accepted basis. Therefore, Canada
Norway offered to mediate, based on its recent success with Russia
has a unique opportunity coming up: the timeline of the fast-melting
over the Barents Sea. Such cooperation should be expected to happen
ice overlaps with the schedule of Canada’s chairmanship of the Arc-
more and more, because there are only five countries in the Arctic
tic Council. This is an important moment in history, and decisions
and it is easier to agree in smaller groups. Also, nothing can be re-
taken in the next few years will have a profound impact on the fu-
solved by resorting to military action, and all the implicated actors
ture of the region. Canada must use its international reputation,
know that. It is clear that talking with each other and cooperating is
legitimacy and diplomatic skill to achieve the best results.
the only way to move forward, even if they are ultimately competing against each other for a bigger piece of valuable territory. Finally, multilateral cooperation is possible within a clear
About the author
institutional framework, where norms and rules are understood by all. This is why the Arctic Council and UNCLOS are so important. Although the Arctic Council is merely an advisory body, it is the only one
Amina Abdullayeva
created specifically for the Arctic and it is taken seriously. This is
Amina Abdullayeva is a Security Analyst with the Atlantic Council of Canada
evident by the fact that six non-Arctic nations - France, Germany, the
focusing on the European Union, Russia and the former USSR. She holds a
Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and UK - have a permanent observer
Master’s Degree from the University of Toronto – Centre for European, Russian,
status. Even China is showing strong interest in joining. Although
Eurasian Studies.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 2, Issue 10
11
ATA Programs More information on ATA programs are available online
On 13th, 14th and 15th September, the German Youth Atlantic Association visited Brussels for briefings at NATO and ATA.
Atlantic Voices is the monthly publication of the Atlantic Treaty Association. It aims to inform the debate on key issues that affect the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, its goals and its future. The work published in Atlantic Voices is written by young professionals and researchers.
15 German students and young professionals attended the briefings.
The Atlantic Treaty Association (ATA) is an international nongovernmental organization based in Brussels working to facilitate global
On October 29th, the ATA is hosting a panel on the ‘US Presi-
networks and the sharing of knowledge on transatlantic cooperation and
dential Candidates’ Foreign Policies and their views on NATO’.
security. By convening political, diplomatic and military leaders with
Speakers include the Director of Gallup Europe and Representa-
academics, media representatives and young professionals, the ATA
tives from the Democratic and Republican Parties.
promotes the values set forth in the North Atlantic Treaty: Democracy,
On November 13th, the ATA is organizing a Brainstorming Debate with EPC’Ideas Factory-Europe on the future of Transatlantic relations at the Residence Palace in Brussels. The brainstorm will contribute to refreshing ideas on the future relations between Europe and North America. Join the ATA Mediterranean Debates, an online platform to spur debate on Mediterranean Security Issues among young emerging leaders from the region.
Freedom, Liberty, Peace, Security and Rule of Law. The ATA membership extends to 37 countries from North America to the Caucasus throughout Europe. In 1996, the Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) was created to specifially include to the successor generation in our work. Since 1954, the ATA has advanced the public’s knowledge and understanding of the importance of joint efforts to transatlantic security through its international programs, such as the Central and South Eastern European Security Forum, the Ukraine Dialogue and its Educational Platform. In 2011, the ATA adopted a new set of strategic goals that reflects the constantly evolving dynamics of international cooperation. These goals include:
Atlantic Voices is always seeking new material. If you are a young researcher, subject expert or professional and feel you have a valuable contribution to make to the debate, then please get in touch. We are looking for papers, essays, and book reviews on issues of importance to the NATO Alliance. Further enquiries can also be directed to the ATA Secretariat at the address listed below. Editor: Linda Benesch The views expressed in these articles are entirely those of the author. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Atlantic Treaty Association, its members, affiliates or staff. mages should not be reproduced without permission from sources listed, and remain the sole property of those sources.
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activism and greater emphasis on joint research initiatives. These programs will also aid in the establishment of a network of international policy experts and professionals engaged in a dialogue with NATO.