Manchester Monitor Quarterly October 2014 The ageing of apprentices Apprenticeship Starts in Greater Manchester by Age and Academic Year
09/10
10/11
11/12
8,200 10,200 8,200 7,500
16-18 6,200 8,000 8,700 9,100
19-24 2,900 10,700 12,900 13,500
25+ Further decreases in JSA count Businesses looking to recruit Summer holiday season boosting passenger figures House prices rise on an annual basis Slight increase in total volume of crime www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com
12/13
Monitor Focus The ageing of apprentices This issue of the Manchester Monitor Quarterly includes a detailed feature on the patterns of apprenticeships in Greater Manchester (GM) in recent years. Drawing from a recent New Economy report, Explaining Patterns in Apprenticeships in Greater Manchester, the feature shows that the number of apprentices has increased by 141% from 2008/09 to 2012/13. As a proportion of total employment, there are more apprentices in GM (2.6%) than nationally (2.2%). In addition, the number of apprentices over the age of 25 has increased by 446% from 2008/09, indicating that the average age of apprentices in GM is increasing. While the changes in apprentices’ age structure are linked to a mixture of social, political and labour market reasons, much depends on who employers wish to hire and apprentices aged over 19 are often seen to be more focused and reliable. Young people are also staying in formal education for longer and programme-led apprenticeships offered by colleges are no longer included in apprenticeship data, as they are not jobs as such. While political leaders are cheering for more apprenticeships, in the GM level, New Economy has called for a “new recruit” target and more help to cover apprentices’ travel costs. Turning to the regular labour market data, unemployment as recorded by the claimant count continues to fall. There were less than 46,900 people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in August 2014, a 5.5% decrease from July 2014 and 38.8% year-on-year decrease. While this portrays a very positive picture of the labour market, it should be noted that some 6,000 people trialling Universal Credit in GM are currently not included in JSA figures. Around 2.7% of the resident working age population in GM were claiming JSA in August, remaining slightly higher than in the wider region (2.5%) and Great Britain (2.3%). The encouraging labour market performance is also reflected across the wider economy, as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised UK economic growth up to 0.9% for the second quarter of the year, compared to the previous estimate of 0.8%. This leaves UK GDP 3.2% higher in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. These revised figures show that, in fact, the UK economy surpassed its pre-recession peak in the third quarter of 2013 instead of the previously thought Q2 2014.
1 | Manchester Monitor – October 2014
The latest results of the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) show business confidence remains high across GM, as firms continue to expect to increase employment levels. Firms’ intentions to recruit are now more moderate at 26% for manufacturing firms and 27% for the services sector. GM’s visitor economy continues to perform well with the latest airport passenger numbers indicating the busiest ever year for Manchester Airport. More than 2.4 million passengers were handled by the Airport in July 2014, which is a 6.1% increase in annual terms. The summer holiday season also boosted hotel occupancy rates both in Manchester city centre and across the conurbation. Weekend occupancy for August in the city centre averaged at 88.0% – an increase of six percentage points from August 2013. The housing market has lately showed some signs of calming down, although house prices in GM continued to increase 5.4% from August last year with all districts in GM seeing annual rises in house prices. On a monthly basis property prices in GM remained virtually the same between July and August, with Trafford remaining the most expensive part of GM. In total 2,910 properties were sold in GM in June 2014, an increase of 14.1% from June last year. Average house prices in England and Wales are now just £3,500 off the peak of November 2007 although the Royal Institute for Chartered Surveyors has warned that with house prices to earnings ratios becoming more stretched and the prospect of interest rate rises on the horizon, this may have a negative impact on buyer interest. The latest data from Greater Manchester Police show a slight increase in the total volume of crime in GM. Comparing the figures for the 12 months ending August 2014 with the same period in the previous year shows a 5.4% increase on the number of reported crimes. Victim-based crimes increased 5.7% in annual terms, while non- victim based crime including fraud and forgery increased by 2.2%. The volume of both primary and deliberate fires decreased, continuing a longer-term trend across GM.
Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants
Airport Passengers
38.8%
6.1%
since last year
Employment Expectations
since July 2013
Hotel Occupancy
6%pts on a quarterly basis.
0.3% pts
Average occupancy rate in GM was 78.1% in August 2014
The balance of GM service sector companies in Q3 2014 reporting positive employment expectations over the next three months
House Prices
Crime
5.4%
since August 2013
5.4%
since August 2013
Manchester Monitor – October 2014 | 2
People Monitor Further decreases in JSA count The latest figures show that just under 47,000 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester (GM) in August 2014 – a decrease of 2,700 (5.5%) when compared with the figure for July 2014 of 49,600. In annual terms the number of JSA claimants in GM is 29,800 (38.8%) lower than in August 2013. JSA Claimants Around 2.7% of the resident working age population in GM were claiming JSA in August. This rate remains slightly higher than in the North West (2.5%) and Great Britain (2.3%). Universal Credit continues to have an impact on the claimant count and this effect should be noted in any JSA count analysis. There are currently some 6,000 people trying out the new benefit system in GM which means that these people are not included in claimant count statistics, which is why the unemployment outlook may seem more flattering than it actually is. The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis by 6.4% (2,000) to 29,700, while the number of female claimants decreased by 4.0% (700) to 17,200. There was a year-on-year fall in male JSA claimants in GM of 20,400 (a drop of 40.8%). The number of female claimants also fell year-on-year, and is now 35.2% (9,300) lower than this time last year. There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in August 2014 to 22,200, a monthly fall of 1,300 (5.5%). On an annual basis the number of long-term claimants is 39.5% (14,500) lower than this time last year. The North West (36.8%) and Great Britain (34.6%) also saw annual declines in long-term claimants. Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16-24) in GM fell on a monthly basis between July and August, decreasing by approximately 700 to 10,500. Year-on-year, the number of youth JSA claimants declined by 48.2%, and is now 9,800 lower than this time last year. The proportion of youth unemployment is slightly lower in GM (22.5%) compared to the wider region (23.9%) and Great Britain (24.2%).
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in August 2014
Analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that employment continued to rise at a national level – in line with the longer term trend since late 2011. Around 30.6 million people were in employment in Great Britain for May to July 2014, an increase of 74,000 compared to February to April 2014. In annual terms this means 774,000 more people are now in employment compared to this time last year. The employment rate for 16-64 year olds was 73.0% – up from 71.6% for the same period in 2013. The annual fall in unemployment for February to April 2014 is the largest year-on-year fall in unemployment since 1988. There are currently 2.02 million unemployed people in Great Britain. Average regular pay in Great Britain was £450 per week in July 2014, an increase of 0.7% from a year earlier for May to July. This continues to reflect the low pay growth that has become a longer term trend across a wide range of industrial sectors. Vacancies Data There were nearly 14,300 vacancies in GM in August 2014. Nearly two-thirds of GM based-vacancies in August were situated in Manchester (68.2% or 9,700), followed by Stockport (7.3% or 1,000) and Salford (4.6% or 700). The highest proportion of vacancies (32.3%) in August 2014 was in professional occupations – around 4,600 jobs. Associate professional & technical roles (21.1%, or 3,000) was the second largest occupation group followed by administrative and secretarial occupations (9.9%, or 1,400). Skills cluster analysis reveals that the top three most sought after specific skills by GM employers for August 2014 were customer service assistance; programming, development & engineering; and sales skills.
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
46,891
Decreased by 38.8% year-on-year
Women
Men
Youth
Long-term
$35.2% $40.8% $48.2% $39.5% Source: Labour/Insight (Burning Glass Technologies)
1
3 | Manchester Monitor – October 2014
This month’s quarterly feature examines the apprenticeship market in Greater Manchester during the past five years. It draws on a recent New Economy report, Explaining Patterns in Apprenticeships in Greater Manchester, for its evidence and arguments. The findings show that apprentice numbers have grown, but policy announcements and funding mechanisms are reshaping the market – and arguably point to fewer apprentices in the years ahead. Apprenticeship starts among adults over 25 grew from just under 2,500 in 2008/9 to 13,500 in 2012/13 (a rise of 446%). Between 2010/11 and 2012/13, there was a fall of 16-18 year olds beginning an apprenticeship of 26.0%. However, both the fall in 16-18 year olds and the surge in older adults may both be short-lived trends. Patterns in apprenticeship starts are uncertain due to changes in funding policy.
Approximately 30,000 people in GM started an apprenticeship in 2012/13, the last full year for which data are available, compared with 12,500 in 2008/9 – a rise of 141%. Expressed as a percentage of total employment, apprentices account for 2.6% of total employees in GM compared with 2.2% at national level. Some 45% of apprentices were over the age of 25 in 2012/13 and a substantial amount of the growth has been driven by people in their 30s, 40s and 50s undertaking apprenticeships.
Figure 1: Apprenticeship starts by age in Greater Manchester, 2008/9 - 2012/13
16,000 14,000
13,458
12,000 10,000 9,115 8,000
7,517
6,000 4,000 2,000 -
2008 / 2009
2009 / 2010
2010 / 2011
Youth
Explaining the Patterns The explanations for these patterns lie in a mixture of social, political and labour market reasons. As apprenticeships are jobs, much depends on who an employer wishes to hire. Those over 19 are typically seen as more focused, reliable and employable – perhaps especially as a “safety first” attitude in recruitment was widely held to have entrenched itself during the recession. Without funding agencies incentivising training providers to make extra efforts to “sell” 16-18 year olds, employers’ preferences for apprentices with greater life experiences can reassert itself.
19-24
2011 / 2012
2012 / 2013
25+
Secondly, the fall in the numbers of young people undertaking apprenticeships was partly explained by a change in policy in 2010 which scrapped so-called “programme-led apprenticeships”. These were not jobs but short, introductory courses typically offered by colleges, which, prior to 2010, were included in apprenticeship data. Thirdly, young people are tending to stay longer in formal education, as is the case in almost all developed countries. In 2011, just 6.0% of 16 year olds opted to enter an apprenticeship nationally. Apprenticeships have become an unusual choice.
Manchester Monitor – October 2014 | 4
Figure 2: Apprenticeship starts by gender, 2008/09 - 2012/13
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -
2008 / 2009
2009 / 2010
2010 / 2011 Female
Many commentators hope this will change. The availability of high quality, vocational routes into productive and skilled work is seen as a vital goal of skills policy. However, apprenticeships aim to address wider social policy goals rather than easing the school-to-work transition alone. Many employers use apprenticeships to develop the skills of their existing workforce rather than recruit young people into a trade. In fact, employers appear most comfortable with apprenticeships when they are used as a means to develop their existing workforce rather than to recruit new staff. According to the Department of Business, 71.0% of apprentices in 2012 were existing employees. Generic or Specific Occupations? Although the stereotype of an apprenticeship is in a highly technical “male” sector that involves tools and machinery, this perception needs modifying in two ways. First, most apprentices are women (57.0% overall and 64.0% among the over 25s). The gender gap in apprenticeships is less evident among 16-18 year old apprentices.
2011 / 2012
2012 / 2013
Male
Secondly, although the idea of an apprenticeship being a preparation for specific “technical” work is valid in some sectors including construction and engineering, it is highly debatable in general: the most popular apprenticeship frameworks are overwhelmingly service oriented. They develop skills that are not occupationally specific, but deployable across many sectors. In 2012/13 the top three most popular frameworks were customer service (intermediate), business and administration (intermediate) and health and social care (intermediate) – all fields of work that can be characterised as people and process oriented rather than technical in nature. The popularity of health and social care amongst women is part of the explanation for the high numbers of older female apprentices. Just under 40.0% of apprenticeships begun by women were in health and social care, where care homes have until recently been judged by regulators on the skill levels of staff and how well the employer develops them. Figure 3 shows the top ten apprenticeship frameworks for men and women in 2012/13.
Figure 3: Most popular frameworks among men and women in 2012/13
Women
Men
Health and Social Care - Apprenticeship Health nd Social Care - Advanced
1,663 1,591
Customer Service - Intermediate Business and Administration - Intermediate
1,086 666
Business and Administration - Intermediate
1,425
Management - Advanced
540
Customer Service - Intermediate Children and Young People’s Workforce - Advanced
1,319 1,035
Improving Operational Performance - Intermediate Management - Intermediate
539 487
Business and Administration - Advanced
990
Customer Service - Advanced
384
Management - Advanced Customer Service - Advanced
952 770
Warehousing and Storage - Intermediate Construction Building - Intermediate
383 373
Management - Intermediate
754
Engineering Manufacture Craft Technician - Advanced
370
Children and Young People’s Workforce - Intermediate
651
Health and Social Care - Apprenticeships
352
5 | Manchester Monitor – October 2014
Do Apprenticeships Relate to Skill Needs? With the labour market increasingly taking on an “hourglass” shape with growth at the top and the bottom of the skills distribution with fewer roles at mid-skill level, it is important that apprenticeships enable learners to progress. In 2012/13, apprenticeships were split between 57% at intermediate
level (broadly equivalent to five good GCSEs), 41% at advanced level and 2% at higher level (roughly equivalent to a bachelor’s degree). It is noteworthy that although higher level apprenticeships are relatively few in number, they present a new opportunity for people hoping to move into professional work through vocational routes
Figure 4: Level of apprenticeships
2012 / 2013
57%
41%
Intermediate Level Apprenticeship Advanced Level Apprenticeship Higher Apprenticeship - Level 4
2008 / 2009
Higher Apprenticeship - Level 5
33%
67%
Higher Level Apprenticeship
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Source: SFA Datacube 2012/13
Pay Rates for Apprentices Although the National Apprenticeship Service (NAS) says on its website that typical apprentice pay rates are £170 a week, the rates available among the vacancies listed in GM appear to be rather less than that. In an analysis that looked at the available rates of pay for apprentices between October 2013 and March 2014, the average weekly wage for advertised apprenticeship vacancies was £121. Assuming that the advertised vacancies refer to gross pay, as would normally be the case in job adverts, then apprenticeship wages are typically 60% of the rate indicated on the NAS website and 55% of the wage in the 2012 BIS Apprenticeship Pay Survey. There is significant variation behind these averages with some apprenticeship wages being as high as £480/week compared to £100/week at the lower end of the scale. Around 54.0% of weekly wages are £100-£149, with 19.0% paying as little as £50-£99 per week. Nationally, it is known that a relatively high number of apprenticeships do not comply with the National Minimum Wage (NMW): approximately 29% of apprenticeships pay less than the NMW, compared with 6% non-compliance for employees of all ages.
Future Policy Although policymakers and others tend to judge progress in apprenticeships as increases in the volumes of starts, it is likely that recent policy changes imply fewer apprentices in future. The Richard Review of Apprenticeships, which the government has largely adopted, specified changes that aimed to boost the quality of apprenticeships; the possibility of a potential trade-off between quantity and quality has yet to be fully reckoned with – especially in the context of declining skills spending. In particular, employers have become used to getting apprenticeships more or less “for free”, as training providers compete to place apprentices within companies; in the future the requirement for employers to co-invest as much as a third of the cost of the apprenticeship could intensify already ambiguous employer attitudes towards apprenticeships. Furthermore, more rigorous academic standards in English and maths could put some people off from learning they hoped would be “practical” in nature. Many contentious questions remain to be resolved in apprenticeship policy – not least the extent to which an apprenticeship should be use to equip young people for work or develop an employer’s existing staff. In the GM context, New Economy has called for a “new recruit” target to be introduced, for better explanation of the effects of taking an apprenticeship on family benefit entitlements, and more help for apprentices with travel costs, which can make an apprenticeship a prohibitively expensive career choice.
Manchester Monitor – October 2014 | 6
Business Monitor Employment expectations in GM firms UK services sector employment expectations Q3 2014: +27 %
50
Balance of firms
40
30
20 UK manufacturing sector employment expectations Q3 2014: +26%
10
0
Manufacturing
Q3-14
Q3-13
Q3-12
Q3-11
Q3-10
Q3-09
-10
Services
GM firms intending to recruit The Q3 2014 GM Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) collates the opinions of businesses across GM in the service and manufacturing sectors. The latest results indicate the positive outlook is continuing, with firms in both sectors intending to recruit and sales on the rise – albeit at a more moderate pace. Manufacturing The balance of GM manufacturing companies reporting positive expectations for employment over the next three months was 26% in Q3 2014 (the difference between positive and negative responses). While this was down on the balance of 31% for the second quarter of the year, the last time a negative figure was recorded was in Q4 2011 – indicating that firms remain confident about labour market conditions in the sector.
Services The balance of GM service companies reporting positive employment expectations for the next quarter was 27% in Q3 2014, down from 33% in Q2 2014. The last time the balance for the sector was negative was five years ago in Q2 2009, with the outlook for services continuing to look positive despite some fluctuation. The decrease in employment expectations is in line with the fall in recruitment difficulties from 64% in Q2 to 27% in Q3 of 2014.
Export figures for the manufacturing sector decreased in Q3 2014, in terms of both deliveries and orders following the national trend. The balance for export deliveries was 7% (compared to 19% in Q2 2014), while for orders it was -1% (25% in Q2 2014). While this shows a substantial decrease, the previous negative figure was reported in Q4 of 2012, indicating a high level of fluctuation in export orders in recent years. Domestic orders and deliveries also remain positive, with the balance for orders standing at 26% and that for deliveries recorded at 35% for the second quarter of 2014.
Domestic deliveries for the services sector are still rising, with a balance of 35% reported in Q3 2014 compared to 29% in Q2. The balance for domestic orders was also positive at 30%, increasing 2 percentage points from the second quarter.
7 | Manchester Monitor – October 2014
Place Monitor Summer holiday season boosts airport passenger numbers The latest monthly airport data from the Civil Aviation Authority show that the trend of increasing passenger numbers at Manchester Airport continues, and if current trends continue 2014 may be its busiest ever year. More good news comes in the shape of hotel occupancy figures, which show strong occupancy levels for both weekends and weekdays for the month of August. Airport Passenger Numbers Manchester Airport handled more than 2.4 million passengers in July 2014, 138,500 (6.1%) more than 12 months previously. Month-on-month passenger numbers also grew, up from 2.25 million in June, a rise of 7.2% (162,700). The summer months are traditionally the busiest at the Airport as the holiday season kicks in. The annual growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport was higher than that experienced by Heathrow (0.5%), Birmingham (4.6%) and Gatwick (6.0%). Stansted saw higher year-on-year growth of 11.6%. The owner of the Airport, Manchester Airports Group (MAG) is investing in a new push to promote its airports, which also includes Stansted, Bournemouth and East Midlands. This includes the extension of the ‘Fly Manchester’ campaign, which aims to win back the 4 million passengers from its catchment area who travel to other airports when they could access the same routes direct from Manchester. In a further boost to the Airport, Jet2.com has announced a new service to Enfidha in Tunisia for 2015 and Flybe has confirmed a new route between Manchester and Amsterdam, starting as part of its 2014-15 winter schedule and Thomas Cook has announced additional capacity on its Manchester to Cuba service. Ryanair is also set to add new routes, increasing passenger numbers by an estimated 300,000 and creating 400 jobs as part of its 2015 business plan at the Airport.
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
78.3%
Hotel occupancy (GM)
(+1.5% pts)
(+0.3% pts)
78.1%
Hotel Occupancy Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 78.3% in August 2014, up 1.5 percentage points from the same month last year. Weekend occupancy in the city centre averaged 88.0% during the month, a six percentage point increase on the August 2013 figure of 82.0%. The weekday average occupancy in the city centre was 75.0%, up by one percentage point on the same month last year. For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in August were 78.1%, a rise of 0.3 percentage points compared to the August 2013 figure. Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during August were: • 9 August – occupancy of 97% was achieved, which coincided with Emirates Old Trafford hosting the Investec test match between England and India, as well as Bolton hosting the British Transplant Games. • 16 August – 98% occupancy was recorded, boosted by Manchester United playing at home against Swansea City in the first game of the Premier League season. • 23 August – 95% occupancy was achieved on bank holiday weekend, when Manchester hosted the annual Pride Parade and Big Weekend. There were also a number of events held across Greater Manchester, including the Bolton Food & Drink Festival and Oldham’s Saddleworth Rushcart Festival.
Airport passenger numbers
(+6.1%)
2,413,446
Flights
(2.6%)
16,591
% represents year-on-year change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
Manchester Monitor – September 2014 | 8
Housing Monitor Average House Prices in Greater Manchester, August 2014 £200,000
Trafford average = £188,811
England & Wales average = £177,824
£160,000
GM average = £107,623
£120,000
Oldham average = £83,995
£80,000
£40,000
O ld ha m
hd al e Ro c
Bo lto n
Sa lfo rd
W ig an
es id e Ta m
r
M
an ch es te M
G
Bu ry
St oc kp or t
Tr a
ffo r
d
£0
House prices rise on annual basis Land Registry data show that the average house in GM cost £107,623 in August 2014, an increase of 5.4% (£5,841) compared with the corresponding month in 2013. The rise still remains below the annual increase of 7.7% (£13,708) in England & Wales, with properties now costing an average of £177,824 on a national basis. House Prices On a monthly basis, property prices in GM remained virtually the same between July and August, although there are clear differences in average costs when data are analysed at a local authority level in the conurbation. Trafford remains the most expensive part of GM in terms of house prices, with a typical property in the borough costing almost £190,000 in August. This is followed by Stockport (£152,000) and Bury (£115,000), and all three districts are above the GM average property costs. The other seven districts are below this, with Oldham currently having the lowest property price at just under £84,000. All districts in GM saw an annual rise in house prices between August 2013 and 2014. In absolute terms the largest increases were in Stockport (£12,552), Trafford (£10,440) and Bury (£8,593).
9 | Manchester Monitor – October 2014
House sales House sales data from the Land Registry show that there were in total 2,910 properties sold in GM in June 2014, up by 360 (14.1%). This was below the North West annual rate of growth for house sales of 14.1%, but above the England & Wales figure of 10.6%. At a national level, banks and building societies lent more money to homebuyers last month than in any August for the past six years, according to data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). Its members lent £18.6 billion in August, 50% lower than July but 13.0% higher than August 2013. The last time August lending was at this level was in 2008 when it reached £19.3 billion. Sounding a note of caution however, the CML has warned that the impact of tighter lending rules and a softening of the London housing market may lead to lending activity slowing down over the coming months. Sounding a similar note of caution, the Royal Institute for Chartered Surveyors has warned that with house prices to earnings ratios becoming more stretched and the prospect of interest rate rises on the horizon, this may have a negative impact on buyer interest.
Crime Monitor Crime Volumes in Greater Manchester
Year to 31/08/2013
Year to 31/08/2014
100,000
18,444
169,283
120,000
140,000
Victim based crime
Total crimes 178,132
18,050
160,082
160,000
180,000
Total crimes 187,727
200,000
Non-victim based crime
Slight increase in total volume of crime Comparing data from Greater Manchester Police (GMP) for the 12 months ending August 2014 with the same period in the previous year shows that the number of reported crimes has increased by 5.4%. In addition to the information from GMP, Fire & Rescue Service data show a decrease in both primary and deliberate fires for the year ending 31 August 2014. Crime Volumes Figures for the year ending August 31 2014 show that there were just over 187,700 reported crimes in GM. This equates to an annual increase of 5.4% or 9,600 additional offences. Victim-based crimes (stealing, criminal damage & arson, violence and sexual offences) saw nearly 169,300 cases recorded over the 12 month period, representing an annual increase of 5.7% (or 9,201). While overall volumes of crime increased, the number of criminal damage & arson offences decreased by 0.8% (234) across GM during the year to August 2014. The number of stealing offences increased by 2.2% (2,144) – below the 5.4% increase in total crime volumes.
GM Fire & Rescue Service Data The total volume of deliberate fires has reduced by 30.1% across GM. Deliberate secondary fires in GM (i.e. smaller fires affecting open spaces and the public realm rather than property) were recorded at just under 5,300 for the 12 months to August 2014, compared to a figure of 8,000 for the previous year, an annual decrease of 33.8% (2,700). The number of deliberate primary fires (those where owned property is involved) also fell by 11.9% annually, with around 1,400 primary fires recorded in August 2014 compared to just over 1,600 in August last year. The reductions continue the positive trend linked to increased interventions such as youth engagement and school visits.
Manchester Monitor – October 2014 | 10
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11 | Manchester Monitor – October 2014