Manchester Monitor September 2014 Holiday season boosts the visitor economy
Jobseeker numbers continue to fall Business start-up numbers increasing Visitor economy performing well House prices pick up again Decrease in the volume of fires
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Monitor Focus Holiday season boosts the visitor economy Manchester Airport continues to perform strongly, and the latest data from the Civil Aviation Authority show that in June 2014, it handled nearly 2.3 million passengers, 121,400 (5.7%) higher than 12 months previously, in June 2013. Month-on-month passenger numbers increased too, from 2.0 million in May 2014, a rise of 10.4% (212,400). A recent report from Manchester Airport Group (MAG) shows the group contributes around £4 billion to the regional economies through its management of Stansted, East Midlands and Bournemouth airports in addition to Manchester. The launch of new routes to Tunisia, Amsterdam and Eindhoven should further boost passenger numbers at Manchester Airport. MAG’s recent contract with National Air Traffic Service starting in April 2015 secures air traffic control and engineering services unlocking potential for future expansions at Manchester Airport. The wider visitor economy is performing well too, with hotel occupancy rates recorded at 80.2% for GM and 79.8% for Manchester city centre for July. The conurbation experienced a 2.3% pts increase in occupancy on an annual basis, while hotels in Manchester city centre were 2.7% pts busier than in July 2013. The 80.0% average for the city centre has only been exceeded once before since records began in 2000. The difference between weekend and weekday rates usually measures at 7% pts for the month of July, however, July 2014 saw only a 4% pts gap between weekend and weekday rates. The positive outlook continues across the wider economy. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that the second quarter of 2014 was the sixth successive quarter of growth in the UK in terms of GDP. This makes the UK economy 3.2% larger than in the same period a year ago and growing at the fastest rate since Q4 2007. At a GM level, the latest unemployment figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show further reductions in the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM, continuing a strong positive trend. Current JSA data show that around 49,600 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance in Greater Manchester (GM) in July 2014 – a decrease of 2,300 (4.4%) when compared with the figure for June 2014 of 51,900. The North West (3.9%) and Great Britain (2.5%) also saw monthly decreases.
1 | Manchester Monitor – September 2014
Sounding a more cautious note, as a proportion of the resident working-age population, 2.8% of people in GM were claiming JSA in July, which remains higher than the North West (2.6%) and Great Britain (2.4%) as a whole. It should also be noted that Universal Credit continues to affect JSA data, with a few thousand GM residents being knocked off the Claimant Count due to ongoing pilots. Bureau van Dijk’s FAME business database shows that GM is experiencing a healthy increase in the number of new business incorporations. The number of firms registering at Companies House increased by 18.9% in GM from July last year, which is a larger increase than the average recorded across England. The latest commercial property market reports from Cushman & Wakefield show that prime rents have increased in annual terms both in office and industrial properties. The positive economic outlook continues to drive the commercial property market. The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £107,100 in July 2014, an increase of 5.4% (£5,500) from this time last year, in line with the slightly higher annual rise of 7.2% (£11,800) in house prices for England & Wales. GM continues to outperform the wider region in terms of house prices: the average house price in the North West in July was £112,400, up 4.6% (£4,900) from last year. On an annual basis, house sales in GM have risen by 6.9% (200). This is proportionally less than in the North West but above national average, where house sales have risen 9.5% (700) and 6.0% (4,100) respectively on an annual basis. The latest data from Greater Manchester Fire & Rescue records a 28.5% reduction in the total volume of deliberate fires in GM. This was reflected both in primary and secondary fires. Deliberate secondary fires reduced by 31.4% for the 12 months to July 2014. Primary fires, which affect owned property also fell by 14.8% annually. Assault attendances across the eight hospital trusts’ local emergency departments have remained largely steady, with a slight increase of 0.2% recorded for July on a rolling 12 month basis. 51% of assault patients were aged 15-29, which shows this age group remains particularly vulnerable to violence.
Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants
Airport Passengers
36.9%
5.7%
since last year
since June 2013
Number of new businesses incorporated
Hotel Occupancy
3%pts
in GM since July 2013
Average occupancy rate in GM was 80.2% in July 2014
8.5%
Crime - Deliberate Fires
House Prices
5.4%
29%
since July 2013
since July 2013
Manchester Monitor – September 2014 | 2
People Monitor Jobseeker numbers continue to fall The latest figures show that around 49,600 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester (GM) in July 2014 – a decrease of 2,300 (4.4%) when compared with the figure for June 2014 of 51,900. In annual terms the number of JSA claimants in GM is 29,100 (36.9%) lower than in July 2013. JSA Claimants Around 2.8% of the resident working age population in GM were claiming JSA in July. This rate remains slightly higher than in the North West (2.6%) and Great Britain (2.4%), however, monthly comparison shows the GM rate fell 0.2 percentage points from June while the rate for Great Britain remained stagnant. The impact of Universal Credit should be noted in any JSA count analysis, as there are some 6,000 people trialing the new benefits system in GM. While these people are not included in claimant count statistics, this means positive unemployment outlook may be slightly exagerated. The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis by 5.4% (1,800) to 31,700, while the number of female claimants decreased by 2.6% (500) to 17,900. There was a year-on-year fall in male JSA claimants in GM to 20,300 (a drop of 39.0%). The number of female claimants also fell year-on-year, and is now 32.9% (8,800) lower than this time last year. There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in July 2014 to 23,500, a monthly fall of 1,300 (5.2%). On an annual basis the number of long-term claimants is 37.2% (13,900) lower than this time last year. The North West (-34.9%) and Great Britain (-32.8%) also saw annual declines in long-term claimants. Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16-24) in GM fell on a monthly basis between June and July, decreasing by approximately 200 to 20,900. Year-on-year, the number of youth JSA claimants declined by 15.4%, and is now 3,800 lower than this time last year.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that employment continued to rise at a national level – in line with the longer term trend for the past two years. 30.6 million people were in work nationally for April to June 2014, 167,000 more than for January to March 2014. In annual terms this is 820,000 more people in employment than a year earlier. The employment rate for 16-64 year olds was 73.0% – up from 71.5% for the same period in 2013. The employment rate now matches the pre-downturn peak of 73.0% between late 2007 and early 2008. Average regular pay in Great Britain was 0.6% higher for April to June than a year earlier. While this was the lowest annual growth rate since records began in 2001, it reflects broadly the longer term trend. Vacancies Data There were nearly 16,900 vacancies in GM in July 2014. Nearly two-thirds of GM based-vacancies in July were situated in Manchester (68.2% or 11,500), followed by Stockport (6.6% or 1,100) and Bolton (5.0% or 800). The highest proportion of vacancies (34.6%) in July 2014 was in professional occupations – 5,800 jobs. Associate professional & technical roles (20.7%, or 3,500) was the second largest occupation group followed by administrative and secretarial occupations (11.0%, or 1,900). Skills cluster analysis reveals that the top three most sought after specific skills by GM employers for July 2014 were accounting, bookkeeping & tax preparation; programming, development & engineering; and databases & data warehousing.
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in July 2014
49,616 Decreased by 36.9% year-on-year
Vacancies - July 2014
16,900 3 | Manchester Monitor – September 2014
1
Women
Men
$32.9%
$39%
Youth
Long-term
$46.1% $37.2%
Source: Labour/Insight (Burning Glass Technologies)
Business Monitor % Change in the number of new businesses incorporated, July 2013-14 35%
32.2%
England (+18.0%)
29.5%
30%
28.2%
25%
22.2% 18.9%
20%
18.6% 17.0% 15.3% 13.9%
15%
12.3% 10%
5%
St oc kp or t
M an ch es te r
Bo lto n
hd al e Ro c
O ld ha m
G M
Sa lfo rd
Tr af fo rd
Bu ry
W ig a
n
0%
Number of business start-ups increasing Figures from the Bureau van Dijk FAME business database show that the number of new business incorporations (firms registering at Companies House) is on the rise. The number of new incorporations increased by 18.9% (or 355) in GM from July 2013 to July 2014, a larger increase than the average recorded across England. New business incorporations
Commercial property market
There were just over 2,200 new businesses incorporated in GM in July 2014, 18.9% (355) more than in July last year. This shows GM is performing well in terms of business startups – ahead of England where the number of new incorporations increased by 17.8% (7,090). The number of start-ups has increased rapidly in the North West with 24.1% more new businesses incorporated than in July 2013.
The latest market reports from Cushman & Wakefield show that prime rents for both office and industrial properties have increased year-on-year in Manchester.
Four localities recorded a higher increase in new businesses incorporated than the GM average of 18.9%. Wigan saw the highest increase of 32.2% (or 38), followed by Bury (29.5%, or 43), Trafford (28.2%, or 60), and Salford (22.2%, or 39). The growth rate for Oldham was slightly below the GM average at 18.6% (or 21), while Rochdale (17.0%, or 16), Bolton (15.3%, or 21), Manchester (13.9%, or 79), Stockport (12.3%, or 26) and Tameside (12.0%, or 12) were also below the GM average.
The average office rent per sq. ft. was £31.00 in Manchester in June 2014, exceeding rates in Birmingham (£27.50), Bristol (£28.00), Leeds (£26.00) and Edinburgh (£29.50). Industrial property rents for June 2014 in Manchester stood at £5.75 per sq. ft., up 4.5% from last year. Industrial property rates in Manchester are at a competitive level, remaining below the rates in Bristol (£7.75) and Edinburgh (£7.25), while at the same level with Birmingham (£5.75).
Manchester Monitor – September 2014 | 4
Place Monitor Manchester Airport continues its strong performance The latest monthly airport data from the Civil Aviation Authority show that the trend of increasing passenger numbers at Manchester Airport continues and this is being further boosted by the summer holiday period. In further good news for GM, the hotel occupancy rates for July show strong occupancy levels for both weekends and weekdays for the month of July.
Airport Passenger Numbers
Hotel Occupancy
Manchester Airport handled nearly 2.3 million passengers in June 2014, 121,400 (5.7%) more than 12 months previously. Month-on-month passenger numbers increased also, from 2.0 million in May 2014, a rise of 10.4% (212,400). June is traditionally the start of the busy summer holiday period, and the July and August figures should also be boosted as a result.
Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 79.8% in July 2014, up 2.7 percentage points from the same month last year. Weekend occupancy in the city centre averaged 83.0% during the month, a two percentage point increase on the July 2013 figure of 81.0%. The weekday average occupancy in the city centre was 79.0%, also a three percentage point increase from July last year.
The monthly growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport is also higher than all of the other major UK airports. Heathrow experienced a monthly increase of only 5.8%, exceeded by Gatwick (6.4%) and Birmingham (7.5%). On an annual basis, Gatwick, Birmingham and Heathrow saw passenger numbers grow by 5.6%, 1.8%, and 1.0% respectively – experiencing moderate increases compared to the 11.6% annual increase at Stansted. Recent new routes from Manchester include budget airline Ryanair’s new route to Eindhoven, Netherlands, running four times a week starting in October. Lowcost airline Jet2.com is also introducing a new route to Tunisia with twice weekly services to Enfidha Airport. The strong performance of Manchester Airport is also reflected in the overall performance of Manchester Airport Group (MAG), which owns London Stansted, East Midlands and Bournemouth airports. The four airports are contributing around £4 billion to the regional economies and supports 45,200 full time employees, according to the company’s recent CSR Report.
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
(+2.7% pts)
For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in July were 80.2%, a rise of 2.3 percentage points compared to the July 2013. Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during July were: • 02 July – occupancy of 97% was achieved, with Robbie Williams performing at Phones 4u Arena and Manchester Central hosting the Microscience Microscopy Congress 2014. • 15 July – 97% occupancy was recorded, boosted by the Manchester Furniture Show at Manchester Central and the Greater Manchester Sainsbury’s School Games. • 16 July – 97% occupancy rate was again achieved as the Manchester Mile event took place at Manchester City Football Club and the second day of the Manchester Furniture Show took over Manchester Central.
Airport passenger numbers
(+5.7%)
79.8%
2,250,757
Hotel occupancy (GM)
Flights
(+2.3% pts)
80.2%
(3.2%)
15,804 % represents year-on-year change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
5 | Manchester Monitor – September 2014
Housing Monitor GM Housing Market £108,000
3,500
HOUSE SALES May 2014
£107,000
3,000 £106,000
Average House Price
£104,000 2,000
HOUSE PRICES July 2014: £107,105
£103,000
1,500
£102,000 £101,000
House Sales
2,500
£105,000
1,000
£100,000 500 £99,000
Ju l-1 4
-1 4 M ay
M ar -1 4
Ja n14
ov -1 3 N
p13 Se
Ju l-1 3
-1 3 M ay
M ar -1 3
Ja n13
N ov -1 2
p12
0
Se
Ju l-1 2
£98,000
House prices pick up again House prices pick up again The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £107,100 in July 2014, an increase of 5.4% (£5,500) from this time last year. England & Wales saw a larger 7.2% (£1,800) rise with prices reaching £175,700. House Prices
House sales
Property prices in England & Wales increased again in July 2014, rising by 7.2% (£11,800), and now stand at £175,700, the highest figure since May 2008. The figured indicate that the housing market is gathering pace again after a slightly slower June.
Land Registry house sales data reveal that there were a total of 3,000 properties sold in GM in May 2014, a monthly increase of 6.9% (200). The number of house sales increased by 9.5% (700) in the North West, well ahead the average of 6.0% (4,100) across England and Wales.
House prices in GM saw a slightly more moderate rise, increasing 5.4% (£5,500) from July 2013. In monthly terms, house prices in GM grew by 0.7% (£800) from June to £107,100. Prices in the wider region increased by 4.6% (£4,900) year-on-year to £112,400. The North West continues to lag behind GM, however, in monthly terms house prices in the region increased by 1.3%.
Year-on-year, house sales in GM have risen by 17.5% (450). This is in line with, but proportionally higher than, both the North West and the national average, where house sales have risen 13.2% (970) and 9.9% (6,600) respectively on an annual basis. While the monthly increases in the number of house sales continue, there are now signs of the housing market cooling down. Recent research shows that the gap between asking prices and the actual amounts buyers are willing to pay is widening. According to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), only 4% of homes were sold above the asking price in July, compared with nearly 19% in May. Two-thirds (66%) of properties were sold for less than the asking price in July, compared to 46% in May.
Different levels of house price increases were recorded at local authority levels in GM. Oldham had the largest annual increase in prices at 12.0% (£9,200), while Bolton recorded the lowest increase of 2.9% (£2,600). The differences between house prices within GM are still large, with properties in Oldham costing on average £85,900 compared to £190,200 in Trafford.
Manchester Monitor – September 2014 | 6
Crime Monitor Deliberate Fire Volumes in Greater Manchester
Year to July 2013
Year to July 2014
Total Fires 6,853
5,420
1,433
0
Total Fires 9,585
7,904
1,681
2,000
4,000
6,000
Primary fires
8,000
10,000
12,000
Secondary fires
Year-on-year decrease in the volume of fires The latest figures from the Greater Manchester Fire & Rescue Service show a substantial annual decrease in the number of deliberate fires. The number of assault patients has remained largely steady. GM Fire & Rescue Service Data
Assaults Data
The total volume of deliberate fires has reduced by 28.5% across GM. Deliberate secondary fires in GM (i.e. smaller fires affecting open spaces and the public realm rather than property) were recorded at just over 5,400 for the 12 months to July 2014, compared to a figure of 7,900 for the previous year, an annual decrease of 31.4% (2,500).
Baseline data for the 12 months ending June 2014 show that around 12,800 people were treated for assault related injuries over the last 12 months in GM hospitals, a minimal increase of 0.2% on the figures from the previous year. In actual terms, this is the lowest rolling figure in eleven months. Reductions at GM hospitals include Manchester Royal Infirmary and Royal Albert Edward, whilst key increases were noted at Royal Bolton and Rochdale Infirmary.
The number of deliberate primary fires (those where owned property is involved) also fell by 14.8% annually, with around 1,400 primary fires recorded in July 2014 compared to just under 1,700 in July last year. The reductions are mainly due to the interventions such as youth engagement and school visits, as well as collaboration with GM Police and the Environmental Services.
7 | Manchester Monitor – September
51% (6,5500) of assault patients were aged 15-29. The same demographic comprises just 21.5% of the GM resident population as a whole according to the latest ONS estimates, highlighting that 15-29 year olds remain particularly vulnerable to violence.
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