ADRESSING SEA LEVEL RISE UA 510 Final Exam DECEMBER 10, 2013 ARIAM FORD ariam@bu.edu
The research for the creation of this memo was accomplished in response to a request mad by President Elizabeth Warren. The president wishes to establish a basis for the consideration of policy to address the effects of global warming and resulting sea level rise on costal and rural areas in the United States. Such policy creation is needed in order for the American people to prepare mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to impending climate change. Such preparation will involve a change in land use policy, especially in highly vulnerable coastal areas. The issue at hand is balancing the protection of human life and the environment with the benefits of economic development experienced in costal locations. This paper first undertakes a literature review surrounding the effects of sea level rise on urban development. Following the review, this paper will make suggestions regarding the direction in which sea level rise mitigation and adaptation strategies in the United States should navigate toward. In his article titled Sea Level Rise, Costal Development and Planned Retreat: Analytical Framework, Governance Principles, and an Australian Case Study, Nick Able outlines a variety of suggestions concerning how government should address planned retreat. He argues that in the past century, sea level rise (SLR) has led to an increase in the magnitude of damage to assets in coastal communities. Despite this fact, the value of costal land has also risen during this century. These two phenomena working together have led to an increase in the amount of built defenses to counteract destruction caused by storms and flooding. They have also resulted in more coastal assets being designed to accommodate flooding, such as moveable buildings and stilts. Finally, he argues, it has led to increased conversations and planning surrounding the ides of Planned Retreat. This is the process of scaling human settlement back from the coast
line, allowing space for costal ecosystems to invade naturally as sea levels continue to rise. Here we see the competing between the ecosystem and human development. The author clearly argues in favor of the environment, highlighting the benefits of costal ecosystems, including scenery, habitats, and the protection it provides for development during storm surges. The author advocated for the creation of planned retreat strategies, but notes a variety of reasons for why such legislation has a difficult time reaching fruition. One problem involves the issues involved in the creation of such plans, including the lack of feedback between different levels of government and the lack of capacity of local government to initiate and implement local change. A second issue results from the existence of multiple stakeholders who are in conflict regarding the distribution of public and private benefits, costs, and criteria for evaluating policy outcomes. Third, the author notes that stakeholder decisions are strongly influenced by and usually in response to rules and norms set forth by the government, including incentives, property rights, compensation liabilities, and development controls. Fourth, where costal development is already intense and economies developed, property rights and lobbying allow affected parties to resist retreat policies. Finally, the author argues that action is limited due to uncertainties surrounding rates and magnitudes of sea level rise in the future. In response to these challenges, the author proposes and Institutional Analysis and Development Framework that governments can use in order to begin to consider planned retreat policy. The framework consists of comprehensively considering and outlining, (1) biophysical and social systems, (2) stakeholders and their roles, (3) rules about rights, responsibilities, incentive and punishments, (4) the amount, accuracy and accessibility of information, and (5) the benefits, costs, and outcomes of resource use. According to Abel, any planned retreat policy must address these
issues together in order to avoid pitfalls in implementation. Not only does the author provide a framework for the creation of planned retreat policy, he also outlines a variety of suggestions regarding principles that governments should consider in order to implement a plan. First, he advocates a system of polycentric governance, in which authority and resources for the project are allocated between levels of government according to their effectiveness at each level. Secondly, he argues that incentives and rules enacted by the government favor planned retreat policy, thereby affecting the cost-benefit analyses of stakeholders. He calls for a model of planning that encourage adaptive responses to sea level rise from owners and developers. Such tools include transferable development rights to shift development pressure away from sensitive coastal areas, land swap systems and rolling easements. Ultimately, the author argues that in order for planned retreat strategies to work, it will require a major shift in public norms and the perception of risks, uncertainties, and consequences of sea level rise. In their article Participatory Action Adaptation: Tools for Increasing Climate Change Capacity and Preparedness at the Local Government Level, authors Fairhurst, Rowswell and Chihumiri review tools for local governments to address their preparedness to climate change. To do so, they provide a case study of an initiative in Sub-Saharan Africa called A Five-City Network to Pioneer Climate Adaptation through Participatory Research and Local Action. This coalition was created with the purpose of addressing significant gaps in knowledge, resources and capacity in order to allow communities to strengthen their ability to plan for the impacts of climate change. The program utilizes two main tools. The first is called an Interactive Climate Change and Climate Impact Training Tool. This tool allows local stakeholders to begin to understand the concept of climate change, to become familiar with the terminology, and to
begin to comprehend the effects of climate change on their individual livelihoods. This effort is organized mainly as a public education initiative, placing global warming in a local context. The US could certainly learn from this tool, as it unveils the benefits of stakeholders not only having an understanding of the general concepts of sea level rise and climate change, but also the value of having information that presents changes in such large systems in a format that shows the repercussions on the local scale and customized to the individual stakeholder as much as possible. The second tool the authors present is called the Local Interactive Climate Risk and Adaptation Prioritization Training Tool. This tool is meant to help local stakeholders begin to prioritize which facets of climate change are most important for them, and allow them to being to construct a plan based on this ranking. One element of this tool is the classification by stakeholders, with the help of a mediator, of responses to climate change into different categories, including community-based adaptation options, institutional adaptation options, biophysical adaptation options, infrastructural adaptation options, and even the possibility of a managed retreat. The most important lesson to be learned from this study is the importance of addressing sea level rise not only at the federal level, but also on the community and individual level as well. No mitigation or adaptation techniques can be successful without the participation and input of the citizen. In his article Sea-Level Rise Research and Dialogue in North Carolina, Benjamin Poulter outlines a the threats of sea level rise for coastal communities, as well as suggests some land use techniques that might be considered to mitigate these threats. Poulter explains that due to the expansion of the oceans as they warm, a result of global warming, coupled with the additional melt-water from glaciers and ice sheets, the global sea level is currently rising at a
rate of 1-2 millimeters per year. Additionally, he notes that approximately 2 million kilometers of the world’s coastal areas and 60% of the world’s population is at risk because of this rise in seal levels. One impact directly associated with the rise of sea levels is the increase in hurricane frequency and intensity. The author argues that this is problematic because the size and permanence of modern coastal cities and their infrastructure has severely lowered their resiliency to climate change as well as their capacity for adaptation. This is of national concern because, according to Poulter, sea levels will continue to rise over the next century. One reason adaptation to sea level rise is difficult Is because existing development and ownership patterns In coastal areas impede natural costal habitats from migrating inland, effectively diminishing this natural buffer that serves to protect human development from storms. The author suggests that mechanisms such as stakeholder dialogue, collaborative management, and land protection strategies could help to address these challenges. An important contribution that Poulter’s work makes to this memo is his discussion of how costal development practices interact strongly with Sea Level Rise to increase the rate of ecological change. Using information from a case study in North Carolina, he lists forest clearing and planting, management of drainage canals, dredging, shoreline hardening (i.e. seawalls, bulk-heads), and shoreline development as activities interacting with sea level rise. The author provides a variety of potential strategies to address the challenges in costal areas caused by changes in sea level. They include aquatic and terrestrial restoration, changes in land management practices, the inclusion of sea level rise in long term county planning and development, the reclassification of hazard zones and the strengthening of land use regulations within them, changes in setback regulations, elevating or moving structures, and even abandonment. His case study on North Carolina is also useful, as
his incudes an example of a case where a state chose to act on sea Level Rise on an institutional level. In 2005, the state of North Carolina established the Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change. The commission suggested a Costal Adaptation Program that would purchase land and conservation easements in high risk areas, requiring hazards associated with costal properties to be disclosed to buyers, and the development of a public education and outreach program on climate change. In her article Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Response: A Global Perspective, author Sally Brown highlights the effects of sea level rise on a variety of environments. She argues that in sandy environments, beaches and dunes will become more prone to erosion. Secondly, she argues that we will see a reduction in wetlands near low lying coasts due to costal squeeze, an idea mentioned in previously discussed articles describing how costal ecosystems are unable to naturally migrate inland due to impeding human development. Next, she notes that even in the face of sea level rise, low-elevation costal zone populations continue to grow globally, with an expected increase from 625 million (2000) to 950 million (2030). What is more disconcerting is the authors claim that North America will experience the highest levels of costal growth, predicting a 78% increase in the costal population by 2060. Fourth, the author details the dangers of sea level rise to transportation and energy systems. Many sea ports and airports are located in low-lying coastal infrastructure. The impairment of operation of such centers by effects of sea level rise could potentially have effects reverbing much farther than the locality affected, given the global nature of our economy. In regards to energy, Brown notes that, globally, approximately 257 oil refineries and 35% of the world’s nuclear power stations are located within 10 kilometer of a coast. In light of these numbers, it is clear that sea level rise
mitigation efforts must include consideration of how such infrastructure will adapt to changes in the environment. Not only does Brown outline the problems and threats of sea level rise, she also offers some potential responses to these impacts, falling under the categories of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation. As mentioned earlier in this review by another author, climate mitigation involves implementing policies to reduce emissions and subsequent temperature rise and enhance sinks for greenhouse gasses. While this approach will reduce the rate of rise, it will not stop it. Brown defines adaptation as actions to reduce vulnerability or improve resilience in response to observed or expected events. It can be taken at either local or national levels, and not only benefits costal dwellers, but also those inland who depend on costal goods and services. The three types of planned adaptation the author mentions include (1) Planned Retreat-migrating landward away from the sea, (2) Accommodation of relative sea level rise-environments and people residing in costal location stay and adjust to the environment through changes in behavior or living conditions, and (3) Protection-using hard (sea wall) and soft (beach nourishment) defenses to protect rising waters and resulting storms. Some other approaches to adaptation include relocation, redesign, contingency plans, improved early warning systems, flood insurance, and land use planning. A very important conclusion drawn by brown is the fact that if we don’t plan appropriately, many will suffer, but those that will suffer the most are those who are most financially vulnerable, as it will be more difficult for them to cope with the expenses of reacting to an emergency. This shows that when considering policy, we should not simply focus on the physical elements of responding to sea level rise, but also the social elements, such as equity issues. Otherwise, those with less will end up bearing a much heavier marginal cost in the process of adapting to climate change.
In their article titled The Economics of Climate Change Impacts and Policy Benefits at a City Scale, Hallegate, Henriet, and Corfee-Morlot detail the potential economic effects on cities due to climate change. They argue that cities are particularly vulnerable to negative effects of climate change because they are large concentrations of a diverse set of activities, people and wealth in a small area. The authors argue that in order to address the threats faced by cites on account of climate change, we must create city specific assessments of the impacts to be expected. Effectively localizing the understanding of climate change can help local officials better understand how to navigate the process of responding to these threats. The authors divide the consequences of climate change into two categories. Market impacts are consequences that directly affect the economy, including asset losses. Non-market impacts are those which exact an intangible cost from humans and the environment, such as health and biodiversity. Some examples of direct market impacts include decreased/increased energy consumption due to heating/cooling demand, rise/fall in tourism due to higher temperatures, asset losses due to sea level rise, and asset loss due to hurricane or storm surges. Indirect market impacts include the decline in tourism on the city economy, spatial or sectoral diffusion of economic losses into the wider economic system, and effects on long term economic development. Direct non-market impacts include population at risk due to sea level rise and cultural losses and migration. In addition to the previous longer, thematic pieces, this paper also includes a review of shorter pieces to help round out the literature base. In his piece entitled Estimating the United States Population at Risk from Coastal Flood-Related Hazards, Mark Crowell explains that in the US, 11.6 million people live below 3 meters elevation. Also, 2.8% of the total population live in
areas subject to the 1% chance costal flood hazard. Crowell’s article echo’s a previously mentioned author’s concern about the increase of costal population and the increase of coastal flooding coinciding with one another. In their article entitled Developing a Framework for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise in Southern New England, USA, authors Gilmer and Ferdanas argue that assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities is difficult because there are critical information shortfalls, information without which political leaders are unable to make concrete decisions and plans. They argue that the first step to addressing the effects of sea level rise is to ensure that comprehensive coastal zone information is available to communities and leaders. In their article Space for Adapting: Reconciling Adaptation and Mitigation in Local Climate Change Plans, authors Hamin and Gurran argues that cities are not only at risk from climate change, as many cities are located coastally; but that they are the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions, and could play the largest role in their decrease. The authors advocate the promotion of greater transportation efficiency through the promotion of public transit, biking and walking. They also advocate for denser environments to provide energy efficiency and efficient delivery. In his piece entitled Framework for Local Responses to Climate Change: Challenges and Recommendations, author Daniel Morchain notes that even though city officials are aware of the vulnerability of cities to climate change, the majority of leaders are attempting to merely cope with the impacts of climate change rather than taking a preventative approach. He suggests a variety of reasons for this inaction, such as insufficient or difficult access to funding,
a lack of coordination at the local government level and across different levels of governance, difficulty in building and conducting effective participatory processes with a broad range of stakeholders, limited availability of knowledge and its limited exchange between actors and cities, insufficient vertical and horizontal integration of instruments, such as legislation, building codes, and urban planning, and finally, a lack of linkage between adaptation measures and local knowledge potentials. This review has shown how important the consideration of climate change, and sea level rise in particular, should be to our Federal government. Costal populations are increasing, drawn by the economic value that exists in costal locations. However, the regularity of storms and hurricanes is also increasing. Here we see the tension between development and nature in clear view. However, it would be naive to believe that thing can go on as they have. If we want our coastal assets to be sustainable, and to not become liabilities, we must take action and develop a plan to address the effects of climate change and the resulting se level rise. I have picked out a variety of themes from the literature that seem to provide an adequate starting point for the President and company to begin to consider national sea level rise policy. First, any such endeavor must take on a polycentric approach, utilizing the local, state, and federal governments in their relative capacities to accomplish and enact sea level rise mitigation and adaptation strategies. Another theme is the education of the community and local officials with city specific information regarding the effects of sea level rise. When information is “localized�, it allows citizens and local leaders to make more informed decisions about their options. This process will also include an aspect of prioritization. Communities must come together to look at the potential risks, and to prioritize their concerns, and therefore, their responses. Without
such a discussion, communities run the risk of merely being inundated with information about consequences without any method to respond. Next, all levels of government should work together to establish a variety of land use policies to be used to help mitigate the effects of sea level rise on coastal communities, including land swaps, easements, and incentives for owners and developers. It is the job of land use policy to direct development away from sensitive areas. Finally, I would recommend that all costal cities in danger begin to prepare contingency plans for planned population retreat. While conditions that would lead to such drastic actions are still far in the future, it is important to begin to plan ahead, as much of the infrastructure and technology that may be needed to accommodate such a strategy will take a long time to develop and perfect. In conclusion, it is the duty of the government to make sure that people are aware of the risks of climate change and sea level rise, that they are equipped with the political tools to make a plan for themselves, and that land policy is doing all it can to avoid compounding these effects through the continuation of behavior that led to this current situation.
References •
Hallegatte, S., F. Henriet and J. Corfee-Morlot (2008), “The Economics of Climate Change Impacts and Policy Benefits at City Scale: A Conceptual Framework”, OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 4, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/230232725661
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Meehl, Gerald A., et al. "Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise." Nature Climate Change (2012).
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Poulter, Benjamin, et al. "Sea-level rise research and dialogue in North Carolina: Creating windows for policy change." Ocean & Coastal Management 52.3 (2009): 147-153.
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Abel, Nick, et al. "Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study." environmental science & policy 14.3 (2011): 279-288.
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J.A.G. Cooper, C. Lemckert, Extreme sea-level rise and adaptation options for coastal resort cities: A qualitative assessment from the Gold Coast, Australia, Ocean & Coastal Management, Volume 64, August 2012, Pages 1-14, ISSN 0964-5691, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.04.001.
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Kearney, Michael S. "Coastal Risk Versus Vulnerability in an Uncertain Sea Level Future." Coastal Hazards. Springer Netherlands, 2013. 101-115.
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Brown, Sally, et al. "Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Responses: A Global Perspective." Coastal Hazards. Springer Netherlands, 2013. 117-149.
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Crowell, Mark, et al. "Estimating the United States Population at Risk from Coastal Flood-Related Hazards." Coastal Hazards. Springer Netherlands, 2013. 151-183.
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Pilkey, Orrin H., and J. Andrew G. Cooper. "Society and sea level rise." Science 303.5665 (2004): 1781-1782.
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Gilmer, Ben, and Zach Ferdaña. "Developing a Framework for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise in Southern New England, USA." Resilient Cities 2. Springer Netherlands, 2012. 25-36.
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Morchain, Daniel. "Introduction: Framework for Local Responses to Climate Change: Challenges and Recommendations." Resilient Cities 2. Springer Netherlands, 2012. 221-224.
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Fairhurst, Lucinda, Priscilla Rowswell, and Faith Chihumbiri. "Participatory Action Adaptation: Tools for Increasing Climate Change Capacity and Preparedness at the Local Government Level." Resilient Cities 2. Springer Netherlands, 2012. 241-250.
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Hasse, Jens U., Martin Birke, and Michael Schwarz. "Integrated Roadmapping to Shape Adaptation Processes in Metropolitan Areas." Resilient Cities 2. Springer Netherlands, 2012. 271282. • Hamin, Elisabeth M., and Nicole Gurran. "Space for Adapting: Reconciling Adaptation and Mitigation in Local Climate Change Plans." (2012): 317-324.