MARKET UPDATE
JUNE 2022 We have begun to see and sense a change in the Truckee-Tahoe market and as your trusted advisors, we felt we should share a market update with you in order to most appropriately plan your next steps as a homeowner or client in our area. Enclosed we have compiled the following data out of the last 4 years of single family home listings in all of: Truckee, Donner Summit, Donner Lake, Martis Valley, Northstar, Alpine Meadows, Palisade/Olympic Valley, North Lake to Stateline and West Lake to Rubicon. This market update does not apply to everyone, as all real estate is "hyper local". However, there is a broad enough visible trend that all markets appear to be seeing to varying degrees that it felt most effective to share the broad brush strokes. While many agents we have talked to will gloss over these emerging trends, we feel it is crucial to share in order to help our friends and clients make appropriate decisions regarding their homes or purchases in our area. Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS; all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
MARKET UPDATE OVERVIEW ● ●
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We expect the standing inventory to grow substantially over the next 3 months. Our midpoint expectation is that inventory will be about 90% higher by the end of August 2022. We anticipate the number of sales per year to remain at pre-pandemic levels. This will leave most areas and price ranges solidly in a seller's market, albeit a less robust one. We do not expect significant pricing changes either up or down through the end of the year. FOR SELLERS: Pricing appropriately will be critical. We have become comfortable with a broad margin of error in pricing that will become narrower through the year. Properties that are priced too high will likely get punished by the market. The target time in the market will be no more than 4-6 weeks before a home starts looking "stale“ to buyers (ie. why hasn’t this house sold?). FOR BUYERS: You will have a lot more opportunities than you have seen for most of the last 2 years. Home sales will be at more rational regarding prices, terms, and processes. You probably won't be getting fantastic deals, but also won't feel like you are getting raked over the coals. As a buyer, do not feel compelled to buy something that you don't love. If you do love a home and the value seems fairly reasonable to you, be very decisive.
7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
Date
MONTHS OF INVENTORY | MAY 2018 - MAY 2022 This chart is a representative ratio of sellers to buyers.The lower the line, the more the market favors sellers. The first half of the last 4 years were fairly normal market cycles. The market began to shift in May 2020. At the beginning of May 2022, we saw another decided shift in market dynamics. With the number of sales at close to pre-pandemic levels and sharply rising standing inventory listing competition per buyer is increasing.
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
Neutral
8.00
Months of Inventory
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
MOI
June 19 - May 20
June 20- May 21
June 21 - May 22
Neutral Market
7.00
6.00
Months of Inventory
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
8.00
5.00 4.00
3.00 2.00 1.00
0.00 J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
Months (staring in June)
MONTHS OF INVENTORY | YEAR OVER YEAR Here we are looking at the same 4 years of data, and layering each year on top of one another. Months of inventory is historically on the rise at the end of May. May of 2022 inventory is much higher than it has been for most of the previous 2 years. This is far lower than it was in mid 2018 through mid 2020.
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
June 18-May 19
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
2000
1600 1400 1200
Homes Sold
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
1800
1000 800 600 400 200 0
Months by Year
HOMES SOLD | MAY 2018 - MAY 2022 This chart represents number of single family home sales for the 12 months trailing each date. The tidal surge of home sales during the height of the pandemic is indicated in mid 2020 through mid 2021. However, we are now in the range similar to the pre-pandemic market. On average, the region appears to be easing into the status quo of 1,0001,200 sales per year.
2020-2021
2021-2022
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
Months (starting in June)
HOMES SOLD | YEAR OVER YEAR Here we are looking at the same 4 years of data, and layering each year on top of one another. Year over year, we are able to see where the market has been at the same time of year across each of the previous 4 years. Currently, the number of sales per year in our market is just over pre-pandemic number of sales.
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
2019-2020
2000
Number of Sales
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
2018-2019
400
300
200
100
0 M-18
M-20
Year
ACTIVE HOMES | MAY 2018 - MAY 2022 The active inventory has been historically what has driven the seasonality of months of inventory. The first two years of this chart is “normal”. Beginning in the middle of May 2020, the rush of pandemic buyers purchased most available inventory. Despite record numbers of homes coming on the market, inventory was still at less than half of the pre-pandemic levels. May 2022, has shown a significant spike. If this is the first indication of normalizing, we are likely to see standing inventory nearly double.
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
500
Active Homes
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
600
2020-2021
2021-2022
500
400
300
200
100
0
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
Months (staring in June)
ACTIVE HOMES | YEAR OVER YEAR Layering active listing data shows the market is still below pre-pandemic levels. Sales are showing relatively lower absorption. We are likely to see available inventory continue to grow. Active listings are still around half of pre-pandemic levels.
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
2019-2020
600
Number of Active Listings
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
2018-2019
1 year ago
Current
Neutral between buyer/seller market
14.00
12.00
Months of Inventory
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
16.00
10.00 8.00
6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 <$1mm
$1mm-$1.5mm
$1.5mm-$2mm
$2mm-$2.5mm
$2.5mm-$5mm
$5mm-$10mm
$10mm-$20mm
MONTHS OF INVENTORY BY PRICE OVER 2 YEARS This chart compares inventory from May 2022, along with the previous 2 year (May 2021 and May 2020) by price range. The blue line represents 2020 and is relatively normal. This chart provides visibility to how the market traction has bled up through the price ranges. The median price for single family homes rose from $890,000 to $1,500,000 over the previous 2 years (May 2021 and May 2020).
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
2 years ago
1 year ago
current
1000
Number of Lsitings
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
1200
800
600
400
200
0 <$1mm
$1mm-$1.5mm
$1.5mm-$2mm
$2mm-$2.5mm
$2.5mm-$5mm
$5mm-$10mm
$10mm-$20mm
$20mm<
SOLD HOMES BY PRICE OVER 2 YEARS Breaking out the components by months of invetory shows how the market has changed particularly, between <$1mm, where the median used to be, and $1-$1.5mm, where the median is now. It is relatively hard to find inventory below $1mm today.
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
2 years ago
current
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 <$1mm
$1mm-$1.5mm
$1.5mm-$2mm
$2mm-$2.5mm
$2.5mm-$5mm
$5mm-$10mm
$10mm-$20mm
$20mm<
ACTIVE HOMES BY PRICE OVER 2 YEARS Looking at the active inventory by price range, we see how the market is starting to settle. With growing inventory starting in most of the higher price ranges first, and gradually growing through the lower prices.
Source: Tahoe-Sierra MLS, all stats for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe as of May 29, 2022.
1 year ago
140
Number of Listings
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS
2 years ago
If you would like a more specific look at what your home or subdivision looks like economically, please do not hesitate to reach out. We can provide you a more specific analysis of your home or subdivision as we navigate this changing market.