biden’s big 4 challenges how algorithms make us

Facing an uncontrolled pandemic resulting in thousands of deaths and economic collapse, while at the same time battling a divided Congress and an increasingly radicalised right-wing, it is not unreasonable to say that Joe Biden is expected to face no shortage of challenges in the next four years.

As this is written, 28.4 million cases of COVID-19 and 502.5 thousand deaths have been recorded in total across the US. Curbing skyrocketing COVID infections and deaths is what I believe will be the greatest challenge Biden faces as a president, but one that will not be resolved nearly as quickly or easily as many hoped.

The Biden Administration’s proposal of enough vaccines for all Americans by July is promising but subject to potential roadblocks along the way. A shortage of doses due to higher demand could delay timelines and leave at-risk communities vulnerable for longer. Similarly, as vaccine distribution remains the responsibility of state governments, they run the risk of differing on criteria for receiving a jab, or as is alleged in Florida, distribution of vaccines overwhelmingly favouring wealthy and white residents over POC and poor residents, despite the latter being more at risk of contracting and dying from COVID. Additionally, vaccination rates could be impacted by misinformation and refusal, with around 20% of American adults either hesitant or refusing to get vaccinated. However, Biden’s challenge of curbing infections and deaths will face challenges before enough of the population is vaccinated, primarily from public apathy and resistance. Protective measures such as mask mandates or business shutdowns vary between states, from relatively tight, or nearly non-existent, leading to outbreaks in population centres such as Florida or Los Angeles. Additionally, there exists the likelihood that the American public grows increasingly weary of these restrictive measures.

Although it has been highlighted that many of these challenges arise from the actions of state governments, Biden ran on and was elected due to confidence to stop COVID, and will be ultimately blamed if deaths and infections continue.

Biden inherits a nation in desperate need of economic relief. More than 779’000 Americans are seeking unemployment benefits and more than 400’000 small businesses have been permanently shut down. In 2020, McKinsey & Company estimated that most industries could recover by late 2020 or early 2021 in a virus-contained scenario, but estimated in a muted-recovery scenario (without COVID containment), return to pre-COVID GDP levels would take years, with the arts, food services, and manufacturing especially hard-hit, and expected to experience this return in 2025 or beyond. The speed at which economic recovery is achieved will depend on whether Biden’s vaccination program is successful and whether infections can be brought to a minimum. However, some industries will take years to recover, regardless of how favourable virus conditions are. This recovery is also stalled by the number lacking sufficient disposable income. Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus seeks to address this through directed cheques and rental assistance, in the hope Americans will spend more.

Any large stimulus package such as what has been proposed is likely to face opposition from Republicans. This could either result in the size of assistance being decreased, or passage of the bill being stalled, leaving those in need suffering for longer. Additionally, its impact could be blunted by overeager state governors reopening economies too early, leading to prolonged outbreaks and unfavourable conditions for consumers. This reintroduces the possibility of ongoing restrictions which create further economic pain.

Aside from COVID relief, Biden and congressional Democrats have ambitions to address areas including voting rights, healthcare access, LGBTQ+ protections, clean energy infrastructure, and more. Given the narrow majorities Biden holds in Congress, and the nature of the Senate in particular, it is likely Biden’s legislative agenda will be blocked, or at least severely stalled in part, for the entirety of his term.

Why? A senate rule called the filibuster allows a single senator to block legislation through prolonged debate, unless 60 Senators vote to proceed. A loophole exists for moving spending and revenue legislation, which can be passed by a simple majority, but all other laws cannot be passed without the support of all Democrats and at least ten Republicans. The use of filibuster for legislation can be removed by a simple majority, but conservative Democrats, typically from Republican leaning states, have refused to support such a move. Essentially, aside from perhaps infrastructure spending, this requirement leaves the policy proposals mentioned above with a near-zero chance of getting passed, unless Democrats win 60 seats in the Senate, which also has a near-zero chance of happening.

This creates more problems. Come the 2022 midterms, will the liberal base be excited to turn out and help Democrats keep Congress if no major policy promises have been delivered? Should Republicans take Congress and render Biden a lame-duck president two years into his term? Will voters be pleased when he returns in 2024 (if he does) with a nearly bare record? While these are hypothetical challenges, and results in the 2022 midterms and 2024 election will be influenced by the success of COVID control and the state of the economy, they are worth noting.

Beginning with birtherism (the belief Barack Obama was not American-born) and the rise of the Tea Party in ’09, America’s right-wing is radicalising and welcoming conspiracy theorists, especially following the presidency of Donald Trump, and his anti-democratic, reality-denying rhetoric. They reject Joe Biden’s legitimacy as president, believe the “deep state” is against them and supporting undemocratic acts such as the jailing or even murder of political opponents. They likewise view Biden not as an opponent, but as an enemy of the state. Troublingly for Biden, this toxicity has infected Republican elected officials, who either believe in the rhetoric espoused by their base, parrot it to stay in power, or oppose it privately but do little to speak out against it.

As demonstrated on January 6th, this radicalisation poses a clear threat to the safety of Joe Biden, his Democratic colleagues, and the health of America’s democracy. Politically, it has created a Republican caucus with many members unwilling to work with or recognize his legitimacy as president, and the introduction of laws across states deliberately designed to make his re-election more difficult, inspired by former president Trump’s baseless claims against the electoral process.

While these pose significant hurdles, this list is by no means exhaustive. Other challenges facing Biden include extreme, global warming-related weather events, China’s soft-power ambitions and expanding economic growth, systemic racism, and income inequality, among others. Additionally, this is only based on a current understanding of events, and it is entirely possible that Biden will face a tremendous challenge which, just like COVID-19, cannot be currently foreseen.