TURN DO WN THE H E AT: C L IM AT E E X T RE ME S , R EGION A L IMPA C TS, A N D TH E C A SE FOR R ESILIENCE
4.6
Multi-model mean of the percentage change in annual (top), dry season (DJF, middle) and wet season (JJA, bottom) precipitation for RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) for South East Asia by 2071–2099 relative to 1951–80 4.7 Regional sea-level rise projections for 2081–2100 (relative to 1986–2005) under RCP8.5 4.8 Local sea-level rise above 1986–2005 mean level as a result of global climate change 4.9 Low elevation areas in the Vietnamese deltas 4.10 Population size against density distribution. 4.11 Probability of a severe bleaching event (DHW>8) occurring during a given year under scenario RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) 5.1 South Asia Multi-model mean of the percentage change dry-season (DJF, left) and wet-season (JJA, right) precipitation for RCP2.6 (2ºC world; top) and RCP8.5 (4ºC world; bottom) for South Asia by 2071–2099 relative to 1951–1980 5.2 Temperature projections for South Asian land area for the multi-model mean (thick line) and individual models (thin lines) under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the months of JJA 5.3 Multi-model mean temperature anomaly for RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) for the months of JJA for South Asia. Temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius (top row) are averaged over the time period 2071–99 relative to 1951–80, and normalized by the local standard deviation (bottom row) 5.4 Multi-model mean of the percentage of boreal summer months (JJA) in the time period 2071–99 with temperatures greater than 3-sigma (top row) and 5-sigma (bottom row) for scenarios RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) over South Asia 5.5 Multi-model mean (thick line) and individual models (thin lines) of the percentage of South Asian land area warmer than 3-sigma (top) and 5-sigma (bottom) during boreal summer months (JJA) for scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 5.6 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in annual (top), dry-season (DJF, middle) and wet-season (JJA, bottom) precipitation for RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) for South Asia by 2071–99 relative to 1951–80 5.7 Regional sea-level rise for South Asia in 2081–2100 (relative to 1986–2005) under RCP 8.5 5.8 Local sea-level rise above the 1986–2005 mean as a result of global climate change 5.9 Likelihood (%) of (a),(c) a 10-percent reduction in green and blue water availability by the 2080s and (b),(d) water scarcity in the 2080s (left) under climate change only (CC; including CO2 effects) and (right) under additional consideration of population change (CCP) 5.10 Population density in the Bay of Bengal region 5.11 The Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna basins 5.12 Low elevation areas in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta 5.13 Scatter plot illustrating the relationship between temperature increase above pre-industrial levels and changes in crop yield 5.14 Box plot illustrating the relationship between temperature increase above pre-industrial levels and changes in crop yield 5.15 Median production change averaged across the climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) with and without CO2 fertilization 6.1 The method to derive multisectoral impact hotspots. ∆GMT refers to change in global mean temperature and G refers to the gamma-metric as described in Appendix 3 6.2 Multi-model median of present-day (1980–2010) availability of blue-water resources per capita in food producing units (FPU) 6.3 Multi-model median of the relative change in blue-water resources per capita, in 2069–99 relative to 1980–2010, for RCP2.6 (top) and RCP8.5 (bottom) 6.4 The percentage of impacts under a 4 to 5.6°C warming avoided by limiting warming to just over 2°C by 2100 for population exposed to increased water stress (water availability below 1000 m³ per capita) 6.5 Fraction of land surface at risk of severe ecosystem change as a function of global mean temperature change for all ecosystems models, global climate models, and emissions scenarios vi
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