Co ntents
3.1
3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
3.8 3.9 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 4.1
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5
Sub Sahara Africa – Multi-model mean of the percentage change in the Aridity Index In a 2°C world (left) and a 4°C world (right) for Sub-Saharan Africa by 2071–2099 relative to 1951–1980 Temperature projections for Sub-Saharan land area Multi-model mean temperature anomaly for RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) for the months of DJF for Sub-Saharan Africa Multi-model mean of the percentage of austral summer months in the time period 2071–99 Multi-model mean (thick line) and individual models (thin lines) of the percentage of Sub-Saharan African land area warmer than 3-sigma (top) and 5-sigma (bottom) during austral summer months (DJF) for scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in annual (top), austral summer (DJF-middle) and austral winter (JJA-bottom) precipitation for RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) for Sub-Saharan Africa by 2071–99 relative to 1951–80 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in the annual-mean of monthly potential evapotranspiration for RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) for Sub-Saharan Africa by 2071–99 relative to 1951–80 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in the aridity index in a 2°C world (left) and a 4°C world (right) for Sub-Saharan Africa by 2071–99 relative to 1951–80 Multi-model mean (thick line) and individual models (thin lines) of the percentage of Sub-Saharan African land area under sub-humid, semi-arid, arid, and hyper-arid conditions for scenarios RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) Regional sea-level rise in 2081–2100 (relative to 1986–2005) for the Sub-Saharan coastline under RCP8.5 Local sea-level rise above 1986–2005 mean as a result of global climate change Crop land in Sub-Saharan Africa in year 2000 Average “yield gap” (difference between potential and achieved yields) for maize, wheat, and rice for the year 2000 Climate change impacts on African agriculture as projected in recent literature after approval and publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Mean crop yield changes (percent) in 2070–2099 compared to 1971–2000 with corresponding standard deviations (percent) in six single cropping systems (upper panel) and thirteen sequential cropping systems (lower panel) Percentage overlap between the current (1993–2002 average) distribution of growing season temperatures as recorded within a country and the simulated 2050 distribution of temperatures in the same country Observed cattle density in year 2000 Projections of transitions from C4-dominated vegetation cover to C3-dominated vegetation for SRES A1B, in which GMT increases by 2.8°C above 1980–99 South East Asia – The regional pattern of sea-level rise in a 4°C world (left; RCP8.5) as projected by using the semi-empirical approach adopted in this report and time-series of projected sea-level rise for two selected cities in the region (right) for both RCP2.6 (2ºC world) and RCP8.5 (4°C world) Temperature projections for South East Asian land area, for the multi-model mean (thick line) and individual models (thin lines) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the months of JJA Multi-model mean temperature anomaly for RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) for the months of JJA for South East Asia Multi-model mean of the percentage of boreal summer months in the time period 2071–2099 with temperatures greater than 3-sigma (top row) and 5-sigma (bottom row) for scenario RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) over South East Asia Multi-model mean (thick line) and individual models (thin lines) of the percentage of South East Asian land area warmer than 3-sigma (top) and 5-sigma during boreal summer months (JJA) for scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5
21 26 26 27 28 29 31 31 32 32 33 37 38 40 43 44 47 50
67 71 71 72 73
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