Sub-Saharan Africa: Food Production at Risk REGIONAL SUMMARY Sub-Saharan Africa is a rapidly developing region of over 800 million people, with 49 countries17, and great ecological, climatic, and cultural diversity. By 2050, its population is projected to approach 1.5–1.9 billion people. With a 4°C global warming by the end of the century, sea level is projected to rise up to 100 cm, droughts are expected to become increasingly likely in central and southern Africa, and never-before-experienced heat extremes are projected to affect increasing proportions of the region. Projections also show an increased likelihood of increased annual precipitation in the Horn of Africa and parts of East Africa that is likely to be concentrated in bursts and, thereby, increase the risk of flooding. Increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are likely to facilitate a shift from grass to woodland savanna and thereby negatively impact pastoral livelihoods if grass-based forage is reduced. Climate change is expected to have adverse impacts and pose severe risks, particularly on agricultural crop production, pastoral and livestock systems, and capture fisheries. It may also significantly increase the challenges of ensuring food security and eradicating poverty. Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to impacts on agriculture. Most of the region´s agricultural crop production is rainfed and therefore highly susceptible to shifts in precipitation and temperature. A net expansion of the overall area classified as arid or hyper-arid is projected for the region as a whole, with likely adverse consequences for crop and livestock production. Since the 1950s, much of the region has experienced increased drought and the population´s vulnerability is high: The 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa, for example, affected 13 million people and led to extremely high rates of malnutrition, particularly among children. Under future climate change, droughts are projected to
become increasingly likely in central and southern Africa, with a 40-percent decrease in precipitation in southern Africa if global temperatures reach 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the 2080s (2071–2099 relative to 1951–1980).
17 This report defines Sub-Saharan Africa as the region south of the Sahara. For
the projections on changes in temperature, precipitation, aridity, heat extremes, and sea-level rise, the area corresponds broadly to regions 15, 16, and 17 in the IPCC´s special report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX).
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