Results and Cross-Cutting Issues
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as the number of new pensioners joining the scheme. New recruitments are about 2 percent of the existing base. The number of new recruits is exactly offset by the number of members exiting the scheme due to death; (4) for Vajpayee Arogyashri, it is assumed that the entire state will be covered in 2015. A 10 percent annual accretion of new members is assumed for private health insurance (PHI) companies. There may be some overlap in these numbers since some beneficiaries of government-sponsored health insurance schemes may also hold PHI policies. Also, RSBY beneficiaries may be beneficiaries of state schemes (such as in a few districts in Karnataka and TN).
Annex 3C Methods Used for Expenditure Projections Expenditure projections for government-sponsored health insurance schemes for 2015 were compiled with the help of professional actuarial support. Key assumptions are that the schemes will continue to use package rates and that the package rates will be revised upward by 20 percent in 2012–13. In the case of the Central Government Health Scheme, the number of retiring employees is the same as the number of new pensioners joining the scheme. These new recruitments will be approximately 2 percent of the existing base and will be offset by members exiting the scheme due to death. This will keep the member base more or less constant. For Vajpayee Arogyashri (Karnataka), the assumption is that the entire state will be covered by 2015. Finally, a 20 percent annual growth rate is predicted for private health insurance: 10 percent annual increase in enrolment and a 10 percent annual increase in average premium.
Notes 1. For a graphic depiction of the data, see annex figure 3A.1. 2. In 2011–12, the scheme was modified to include additional procedures and relaunched as the Chief Minister’s Comprehensive Health Insurance Scheme, and the executing agency serving the scheme also changed. The maximum coverage was also changed from Rs 100,000 floating over four years to Rs 100,000 per year. Hereafter, this write-up reflects the scheme details that existed when this study was undertaken, in 2010–11. 3. As of November 2010. 4. While references have been drawn to the private voluntary health insurance schemes (PVHI) and the community-based self-managed schemes