Figure 3
Top 10 Cable Channels
“1” after Captain America tells you that it is the first. This is relevant, since there are indications that the box office result of a movie tends to decline after the second entry in a series, while there is very clear evidence that this is also the case for the related toy sales. While a kid may want to see the third Hobbit movie, this does not mean that he or she will also want to get the action figures to go with it, because those from earlier movies are likely still sitting in their toy box. There is also considerable evidence that too many movies in the same time slot tend to cannibalize each other. Both factors are of concern to buyers this year, and their ordering patterns reflect this.
Kids ages 2 to 11, in thousands
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2/11/09
2/18/10
2/16/11
2/15/12
2/13/13
2/14/14
Source: Cynopsis Media
than last year’s TV production of Transfomers: Beast Hunters, according to Klosters Retailer Panel data. Another way to look at this is by reviewing web searches, which suggest consumer interest levels. Figure 4 compares three licensed brands during the 12 months preceding April 12, 2014: The Hobbit [The Desolation of Smaug], released on DVD on April 8; Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, shown on Nickelodeon; and Frozen on the big screen. It is therefore no surprise that toy licenses based on movies shown on the big screen are increasing in number, whereas those from TV movies and series are declining. While there were five TV offerings last year (Transformers, The Hulk, The Avengers, Max Steel, and Scaris), there is now only one scheduled this year— Slugterra. In contrast, there were 13 toy-related movies shown in cinemas last year, and 17 are scheduled this year, as seen in Figure 5. Note that the number after the title indicates that the movie is part of a series, counted from the year 2000. For instance, the “2” after Smurfs tells you that it is the second Smurfs movie since 2000, whereas the
Figure 5 Toy Co. Hasbro
2013 Date 3/28 5/17 7/26 11/18
Movie G.I. Joe 2 Star Trek 3 Iron Man 3 Thor 2
Toy Type Action Figure Action Figure Action Figure Action Figure
2014 Date 4/4 5/2 5/23 6/27 8/1 10/24 11/7
Movie Captain America 1 Spider-Man 5 X-Men 6 Transformers 4 Guardians of the Galaxy 1 Ouija 1 Big Hero 6
Toy Type Action Figure Action Figure Action Figure Action Figure Action Figure Board Game Action Figure
Mattel
3/22 6/14 7/17 8/9 11/22
The Croods 1 Superman 2 Turbo 1 Planes 1 Frozen 1
Preschool Action Figure Preschool Preschool Fashion Doll
5/9 5/30 7/18 10/1
Oz Returns 2 Maleficent 1 Planes 2 Max Steel 1
Fashion Doll Fashion Doll Preschool Action Figure
Jakks Pacific
3/8 6/3
Oz the Great 1 Smurfs 2
Fashion Doll Preschool
4/15
Rio 2
Preschool
Playmates
8/8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Action Figure
Bandai
5/14
Godzilla
Action Figure
Spin Master
6/13
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Action Figure
12/9
Hobbit 3: There and Back
Action Figure
3/21
Muppets 2
Preschool
The Bridge Direct
12/13
Thinkway Toys
7/3
Interest Over Time
Frozen Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Average
July 2013
October 2013
January 2014
Source: Google Trends
MAY/JUNE 2014
Action Figure
Just Play
Figure 4 The Hobbit
Hobbit 2 Smaug
Despicable Me 2
Action Figure
Source: Box Office Mojo
The Downside to Licensed Toys Apart from the possibility that licenses could, over time, become less effective as toy sales drivers, there are other drawbacks as well. One of them is cost. A top license typically goes for about 10 to 15 percent calculated on the manufacturer’s sales. There are also sales minimums to be attained, which, if not met, can be prohibitively expensive. Also, a license is given over a fixed period only and may not be renewed at the end continued on page 123
THE TOY BOOK • 101