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Clinical challenge: Identification of patients with lower-risk MDS* and a poor prognosis Approximately two-thirds of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) have lowerrisk disease, defined as Low- and Intermediate-1–risk per IPSS.* However, existing prognostic tools for MDS do not differentiate those patients with lower-risk disease who have a poor prognosis.1
The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) The IPSS helps to estimate the overall survival of patients with MDS. Certain patients classified with lower-risk MDS by the IPSS system may benefit from the “wait and watch” approach currently used by many physicians. However, one limitation of the IPSS is that it does not identify patients with lower-risk MDS and poor prognosis who may be candidates for early therapeutic intervention.
A proposed prognostic scoring system for patients with lower-risk MDS This scoring system stratified patients with lower-risk MDS into 3 risk categories and evaluated the characteristics associated with survival.1 Following a multivariate analysis, the parameters below were found to be associated with decreased survival1: • Platelets (<50 x 109/L; 50–200 x 109/L) • Age (≥60 years) • Unfavorable cytogenetics† • Hemoglobin (<10 g/dL) • Percent of marrow blasts (≥4%–10%) The authors recommend the validation of this model by confirming the results in another patient population. Until these results are validated, the main use of this model will be to assign patients with poor prognoses to investigational clinical trials.1
Utility of proposed scoring system This scoring system may help to identify those patients with lower-risk MDS who may benefit from early therapy. Using this system, the authors determined that of the 673 patients in Risk Categories 2 and 3, 80% had a poor prognosis if untreated. They believed that the need to treat this population was further supported by the number of patients who died (90%) before their disease transformed to acute myelogenous leukemia.1 Results from 856 patients showed 31% of patients with a median survival of 14.2 months (1.2 years) (Risk Category 3), 48% with a median survival of 26.6 months (2.2 years) (Risk Category 2), and 21% with a median survival of 80.3 months (6.7 years) (Risk Category 1).1‡