Argentine soybean crop smallest since 1999

NYSTROM, from pg. 16 unchanged at 2 percent good/excellent; but the poor/ very poor category was up 4 percent at 71 percent.

The Rosario Grain Exchange is pegging Argentina’s soybean crop at 27 mmt which would be the smallest crop since 1999. They added the crop could continue to shrink. Argentina’s BAGE lobbed 4.3 mmt off their last soybean estimate to 29 mmt. Oil World surmised Argentina’s soybean crop could be as low as 25 mmt. It’s been estimated that nearly half of Argentina’s soybean area has received less than half of normal rain in the last three months.

Conab lowered Brazil’s soybean production by 1.5 mmt to 151.4 mmt which would still be a record crop. As of March 6, AgRural estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest at 43 percent complete vs. 55 percent complete last year.

Weekly export sales were dismal with net cancellations of 900,000 bushels and the lowest of the marketing year. The cancellations were to Pakistan and unknown. Total export commitments are 7 percent behind last year at 1.79 billion bushels with the newly-increased export projection. We need to average 8.3 million bushels of sales per week to hit the new 2.015 billion bushel export forecast.

Outlook: Soybeans did not take the severe hit that corn took this week, but it was weaker, nonetheless. Sharply lower palm oil prices spilled over to the soyoil market which lent underlying pressure to soybeans. Soybeans were able to hold above the previous week’s lows and in general stayed above support levels to stay within recent trading ranges. This may continue as the market watches export activity and prepares for the planting and stock reports at the end of the month.

For the week, May soybeans fell 11.75 cents to $15.07, July was 11.25 cents lower at $14.94.75, and November was down 15.5 cents at $13.57.5 per bushel.

Weekly price changes in May wheat for the week ended March 10: Chicago wheat crumbled 29.5 cents to $6.79.25, Kansas City fell 18 cents to $7.98.25, and Minneapolis dove 48.25 cents to $8.24.5 per bushel.v