Figure 1.4 Climate change and poverty interactions

At the time of preparing this UEP, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt societies and economies around the globe. The impacts, both health and economic, have been felt across different geographies and locally in Kerugoya-Kutus. While governments are trying to address current challenges, this pandemic has brought to the fore the need to understand better the connection between vulnerable groups, livelihoods, and shocks from critical events such as climate change. Climate change poses a serious risk to livelihoods and poverty reduction efforts. Climate hazards and the depletion of natural resources disproportionally affect women, PWD, the elderly, and people with chronic illnesses. Low-income households that rely on weather-sensitive subsistence livelihoods such as agriculture are especially vulnerable. Harmful social norms pose additional challenges, by limiting the participation of these groups in formal risk reduction and climate adaptation programmes.

Figure 1.4 Climate change and poverty interactions

Source: Atkins

In KKM, youth and PWD are often excluded from socio-economic activities; they lack access to information, assets, and finance; and they do not participate in decision-making processes. This makes them more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistically, PWD are more likely to have lower levels of education, be illiterate or unemployed. Due to discrimination, they usually have less access to support networks and social capital than their able-bodied counterparts. These social networks are recognised as a key factor that enables groups to prepare for, respond to, and recover from, climate variability and shocks, and this lack of access increases the vulnerability of PWD to climate change. In KKM, PWD often operate small businesses, yet they lack access to finance and adequate spaces to develop their economic activities and to invest in measures that would better prepare their businesses for extreme events and climate hazards. This makes them more exposed to climate change and extreme events. PWD also face limitations in their access to infrastructure and mobility and climate events such as flooding can severely affect their livelihoods and daily routines.

Young people lack access to capital or assets to manage the impacts of climate change and other similar shocks. While young men and women are heavily engaged in agricultural livelihoods, their work is often not well regarded. Limited access to credit and financial resources and reduced social safety nets critically affect their ability to recover from disasters such as floods or droughts. Those who engage in transportation services also see their access to markets and their sales or income disrupted when there are extreme weather events. Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic severely affected youth-owned businesses.

People who live on informal settlements are also identified as a vulnerable group within this context in KKM. Rapid, unplanned urbanisation increases the vulnerability to climate hazards for the urban poor. Informal settlements are often located in hazard-prone areas and are excluded from formal risk reduction and climate adaptation programmes. They are often settled on marginal land and have limited drainage and sanitation infrastructure. Flooding is a significant issue, in particular regarding contamination of water sources, and associated health impacts. Their livelihoods, most often in the informal sector, are reliant on being able to trade every day and are more vulnerable to disruption, be it a pandemic, or an environmental disaster. In addition, they face similar problems with access to credit and financial resources as youth and PWD, which limits their ability to proactively adapt to climate variability and change.

Consequently, it is imperative to understand exposure, and vulnerabilities, to build resilience into future projects through appropriate adaptation measures including green blue infrastructure. In particular it is important to ensure that adaptation measures do not act to reinforce or deepen existing inequalities, but need to be accessible to groups that are already marginalised. For example, climate-resilient technologies need to be affordable, accessible to all, and culturally appropriate. Their implementation needs to be accompanied by capacity building and technical support. As well as considering inclusion and poverty elements of all adaptation and climate risk management measures, excluded groups may require targeted interventions designed to help build their resilience to climate change.

Increasing the resilience of current and future livelihoods and infrastructure is key to poverty reduction and has been addressed systematically throughout the UEP to avoid creating polarisation and further exclusion. Similarly, ensuring that infrastructure projects, VC opportunities and development policies are climate-resilient will not only help the built environment to better respond to future climate risk but also communities and excluded groups to be less affected by climate change events.

In Kenya, the impact of COVID-19 has been real and devastating. The pandemic has significantly impacted all aspects of life such as health, institutional revenues and livelihoods. COVID-19 has hit the most vulnerable the hardest, particularly the densely populated informal settlements, as well as other people lacking access to adequate housing and basic services.

The informal economy employing about 70% of Kenyans has been drastically affected as lockdowns and curfews were introduced to curb the transmission of the virus. Low wage earners have been hit the hardest because they rely on the informal sector and daily wages. Mostly they lack the option to work from home as they are mostly in the service industries and more exposed to the virus. Despite the low wages, some have also received pay cuts, and some have lost their jobs all together. There has also been loss of revenue due to reduced activities in other sectors like industry, commerce and hospitality with the effects felt throughout their supply chains. Travel restrictions have led to a sharp and substantial fall in demand for movement and subsequent impacts on supply chains:

> Road freight and logistics have been interrupted as long-distance truck drivers are suspected to be a major source of imported infections and transmission.

This has had implications for trade and cross-border activities. Goods take longer to reach destinations. For perishable agricultural commodities, post-harvest loses become rampant. > Kenya is the world’s number 2 exporter of tea and the world’s number 4 exporter in flowers, and both these critical industries have experienced a negative impact from

COVID related restrictions. For instance, tea prices declined by 18% year-over-year in May, reaching the lowest point since 2014 and fresh cut flower sales declined by about 40% in March versus the previous month. > Disruptions in global supply chains have also led to shortages or delays for critical inputs for agriculture ultimately disrupting production and food supply and manufacturing, leading to price increases. > Increased awareness of hygiene signifies increased demand for limited resources like water, as well as increased demand for disinfectant used for hand cleaning and sanitization, with additional costs to society, particularly where access is not straightforward.

The COVID 19 outbreak has affected people differently based on their age, gender, ability or disability, sexual orientation, health status, migrant status, and ethnicity among other aspects. Crises exacerbate existing gender inequalities, exclusion, and discriminative practices, and vulnerable groups are highly likely to be more adversely affected by the outbreak and the consequences of the response.