Editorial Contributor
“How long do bull markets last? Since 1929, the typical timescale from the market bottom to the peak in the S&P 500 (a pretty good proxy for the UK markets too) has been 3.8 years on average.” WHAT IS THE LENGTH OF A TYPICAL BULL MARKET? How long do bull markets last? Since 1929, the typical timescale from the market bottom to the peak in the S&P 500 (a pretty good proxy for the UK markets too) has been 3.8 years on average — with two major outliers — the one since 1990 being nearly 10 years long and the one in 1938 being just under a year. The median is worth looking at when you consider such wide variations and the median is 3.6 years in length. Guess where we are now? Over 3.8 years. If you believed only in averages you start getting worried. So we know how we got here, but should we remain at the party? According to Bloomberg, “Americans have missed out on almost $200 billion of stock gains as they drained money from the market in the past four years, thanks to the financial crisis. “ As ever, retail investors get their market timing completely wrong as it is only in recent weeks that they have returned — precisely towards the end, based on historic data, of the bull run!
24 | www.financial-spread-betting.com | March 2013