are prevalent in the Caribbean but are weaker due to the Bermuda high having less interaction with the thermal trough over northern South America.
they often become stationary for a period of time, generating a broad area of large swells in their vicinity. In addition, NE-E-SE winds will be enhanced on the east and south side of the low. Interaction between cut-off gales and high pressure ridges farther north often produce widespread gale force NE-E winds on the north side of cut-off gales. By November, tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic has diminished further. Cold fronts are also farther south than in October and stronger while moving across Florida and the Bahamas. High pressure Tropical cyclones typically take one of two ridges return in the wake of cold general tracks when entering the Western fronts, which helps develop N-NE Tropical Atlantic Basin. Image courtesy of wind surges to these areas, especially Weather Routing, Inc. during the latter half of November.
October and November Changes abound during this period. Tropical cyclone frequency is declining as the season moves toward its conclusion (the season officially ends on November 30th). The main focus for development during these months is in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (often on the southern extent of cold fronts). Much like their early season (June/early July) counterparts, tropical cyclones that form in this region this time of year will either track west or northwestward, in the general direction of Central America or into the Gulf of Mexico. At times, these areas of disturbed weather can move more northeastward ahead of cold fronts across the Bahamas and offshore the U.S. East Coast. In October, we can still see tropical development in the tropical Atlantic, but it is less frequent. Tropical cyclones will “re-curve” and turn northwestward as cold fronts tracking from the East Coast steer these systems northeastward from the Eastern and Central Atlantic. Additionally, cut-off low pressure systems reappear between the Southeastern U.S. and Bermuda, becoming major threats to sailors regardless of tropical development. The tracks of these cut-off low pressure systems can become erratic, and
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When to Go The best time of year to travel to the Caribbean is from late April through May. Cold fronts moving off the U.S. East Coast are less frequent during that time, and are weaker and won’t extend much farther south than the Carolinas. This greatly limits the threat of strong NE-E surges along a direct route; while allowing sailors to take advantage of the available, omnipresent trades down near and in the Caribbean. Tropics are not yet of a concern either. October through early November offer good sailing conditions as well, as the frequency/threat of tropical systems is much lower than in the summer months. Although cold fronts do begin to affect more southern waters by this time, especially into November, they are not as potent as from December to March. The main threat during the spring and fall months will be cut-off lows/gales that track between the Southeast U.S. and Bermuda. The movements of these cut-off low pressure systems can be erratic and extreme caution is to be warranted. These systems are much stronger during the transitional times of year, and generic or automated forecasts can underestimate the strength of these developing storms. Therefore, caution is warranted when observing these type of weather patterns in the fall and spring. Cut-off lows/gales can also become stationary for several days, generating large swells and a broad area of high winds in their vicinity and well to the north and east. The summer offers light winds near the Bermuda high, along the coasts of North Carolina to Florida. The winter offers the most challenging conditions with prolonged uncomfortable conditions across the open Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. For these reasons, these times of year are usually not recommended for making this transit. Awareness is key, regardless of where you are and when you will be traveling. It is important to confirm the weather from a reliable source. Whether it be short island hops or lengthier crossings from the Carolinas/Florida to the South Caribbean, knowing what is happening now and what lies ahead allows any sailor to prevent potential disasters and properly plan for a successful trip! Mike Stockwell is a meteorologist at Weather Routing Inc., based out of Glens Falls, NY, which has provided weather forecasts and meteorological consultation for mariners worldwide since 1961. (518) 798-1110. wri@wriwx.com. For more information about Weather Routing and their services, go to www.wriwx.com. www.southwindsmagazine.com