Paper presented at the 52nd CFCS Annual Meeting, Guadeloupe, July 10-16, 2016
GUADELOUPEAN AGRICULTURE IN 2040: BUILDING UP SCENARIOS TO FOSTER INNOVATION Carla Barlagne1, Jean-Louis Diman2, Marie-Béatrice Galan3, Claude Hoton4, Thierry Noglotte4, Arsène Vinglassalon4, Yvelle Athalys-Neel5, Joseph Biabiany6, Chantal Carabin7, Edouard Geoffroy8, Freddy Grandisson9, Marianne Grandisson10, Marcus Héry11, Roselyn Joachim12, Arnaud Larade13, Christophe Latchman14, Juliette Sméralda15, Olivier Mora16 and Harry Ozier-Lafontaine17 1
UE PEYI Plateforme Expérimentale sur le végétal et les agrosYstèmes Innovants, INRA, 97170, Petit-Bourg (Guadeloupe), France, 2Ambre Développement, 19 allée des Goyaviers, Lot Belair Desrozières, 97170 Petit-Bourg, Guadeloupe, 3HPC Conseil, 75 rue Jean Jaurès, 97110 Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe, 5Exploitation BIO’MORNE, PB 98, 97111 Morneà-l’Eau, 6Exploitation Biabiany, Dugommier, 97 120 Saint-Claude, 7Exploitation Carabin, 97140 Capesterre de Marie-Galante,8 Cocoyer, 97120 Le Gosier, 9Exploitation Grandisson, Fond Barbotteau, 97170 Petit-Bourg, 10APSFFinancement DOMEUROPE, Pavillon Sainte-Anne, 97180 Saint-Anne, 11Les Producteurs de Guadeloupe, Desmarais, 97100 Basse-Terre, 12Chambre d’Agriculture de Martinique, Place d’Armes 97231 Le Lamentin, 13 Parc National de la Guadeloupe, Montéran, 97120 Saint-Claude, 14Exploitation Latchman, Ravine-Chaude, 97129 Lamentin, 15 JSConsultant, 97220 La Trinité, 16INRA, Unité DEPE, Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), 147 rue de l’université, 75 338 Paris, Cedex 07, France, 17 ASTRO Agrosystèmes tropicaux, INRA, 97170, Petit-Bourg (Guadeloupe), France Key words: foresight study, innovation, scenario planning, global change, agriculture, Guadeloupe Abstract In a context of global change and increasing uncertainties, foresight studies have proven to be a useful methodology to help stakeholders anticipate the future (De Jouvenel, 2000; Godet, 2000). At the global scale, Institutions have undertaken foresight studies to examine the challenges addressed to an agriculture meant to meet the needs of a growing population in a context of increased anthropogenic pressure on natural resources and global change (see Dorin et al., 2011 for the Agrimonde foresight study for food and agriculture in 2050 and the follow up Agrimonde-Terra foresight study on land use and food (in) security, actually in progress). In the different scenarios, innovation has a central role to play to enable agriculture to tackle those challenges. In a proactive attitude and in order to get ready to tackle those challenges the Chamber of Agriculture of Guadeloupe designated a consortium (Inra, HPC Conseil and Ambre Dévelopement) to conduct a foresight study on Guadeloupean agriculture up to the horizon 2040. The objective was to provide an overview of the alternative futures of guadeloupean agriculture so as to help in the future definition of a shared agricultural project for Guadeloupe. The method employed was the scenario methodology (Godet, 2007). Five scenarios were built up that give contrasted representations of the possible futures of Guadeloupean agriculture. Those can be hydridized so as to reflect the views of the different stakeholders. Once those visions have been shared and debated, they will have to be translated into an effective action plan in order to build up a proper agricultural project for Guadeloupe. Material and methods We adopted the scenario methodology, a participatory methodology that implies the consultation of a wide range of experts on the past tendencies and future evolution of the system at stake. Eight foresight workshops were conducted during ten months with a working group that comprised a panel of experts and a project team. The system: Guadeloupean agriculture in 2040, was defined as a set of 9 components and more than 40 variables. Each variable was analyzed in order to understand its past and present tendencies and hypotheses were elaborated on its possible future evolution. These hypotheses were combined to produce scenarios that complied with a set of principles that include: relevance, likeliness, coherence, importance and shared representation (Godet, 2007). Main results Main tendencies of evolution of the system Guadeloupean agriculture is characterized by a general decline (fewer arable land, fewer farmers and farms, lower accessibility to loans and credits) and high dependency from external inputs (imports, subsidies) in a context where the availability of productive resources (land and water) is relatively low. There is an historical coexistence of on one side, a sectorial organization of the agricultural sector based on public help and export oriented productions, and on the other side an informal sector characterized by self-organized micro-networks targeting local markets. Technical advice and support exist but there is heterogeneity in their accessibility to farmers and a certain amount of demands are not met. In a Creole society that has been formatted by the colonial system, the social group of Guadeloupean farmers has emerged relatively recently and has only been institutionally recognized for the last 40 years with the progressive decrease of the importance of the sugarcane sector in the economy. Therefore self definition and projection is a real stake for this group today. Food habits are standardized. This can be explained by a heavy reliance on imports for food supplies that diffuses an exogenous model of food consumption. As for local production consumers consider that it is expensive, lacks visibility and of uneven quality. There is a shift towards a global governance of agriculture. At the European level, a common agricultural policy has been defined which is enforced by regions under state control. Important subsidies have been provided to Guadeloupe whose impacts on agriculture are somehow mixed.
273