MODUS Asia Edition | Q2 2018 by ROF Media

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Contents MODUS ASIA Q2 2018 RICS.ORG/MODUS

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Features

Foundations

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Intelligence

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11 PRESIDENT’S COLUMN The information revolution brings a host of new risks that we must be alive to, says John Hughes FRICS

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08 THINKING: SOHAIL HASNIE The Asian Development Bank’s principal energy specialist on how a clean-air revolution starts with electric vehicles

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06 DIFFERENCE OF OPINION What’s the best way to attract new talent to cities with declining populations? We hear two points of view 07-09 NEWS IN BRIEF Industry news, advice and information for RICS members

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STEFFEN ENDLER, SIEMENS SMART CITIES, P24

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AGA MAGA S Mthoughtful Sdesigns “Creating a liveable city takes and plans, Z Z DU DU political will and societal support, technology that is fit for purpose, and good governance and collaboration”

15 ASIA’S FINEST Celebrating the winners of the RICS Awards 2018, in Hong Kong and China

42-43 CAREERS Sexual harassment: know where you stand; CBRE Norway’s Paul J. Morice MRICS

20 COVER STORY Autonomous vehicles are just around the corner. How will our cities cope with them?

44 BUSINESS Helping your staff through an office move

26 WHAT IS BLOCKCHAIN? The transformative technology that’s turning its attention to real estate 30 STREET SMARTS Advances in intelligent infrastructure are driving an urban planning revolution 34 FAULT LINES Why earthquake resilience is as much about building codes as it is construction methods 38 CRACKER JAKARTA Indonesia’s capital is riding high on a commercial building boom. Can it last?

45 LEGAL 101 Do you have control over your own BIM data? 46 PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT Mastering the pre-contract stage of a project 47 SURVEYED The latest products for professionals 50 MIND MAP WYG’s Glyn Utting on where the industry is getting disaster relief wrong PLUS 48 Salary survey 49 Events

Views expressed in Modus are those of the named author and are not necessarily those of RICS or the publisher. The contents of this magazine are fully protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in any form without the prior permission of the publisher. All information correct at time of going to press. All rights reserved. The publisher cannot accept liability for errors or omissions. RICS does not accept responsibility for loss, injury or damage or costs that result from, or are connected in any way to, the use of products or services advertised. All editions of Modus are printed on paper sourced from sustainable, properly managed forests. This magazine can be recycled for use in newspapers and packaging. Please dispose of it at your local collection point. The polywrap is made from biodegradable material and can be recycled.

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RICS Awards

BIM Conference 25 July 2018 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Over the past year, there has been a signiﬁcant rise in the number of emerging ASEAN economies adopting Building Information Modelling (BIM) and embedding BIM-enabled work processes in their day-to-day business. At our 2017 BIM conference, several inﬂuential speakers and panels discussed their journey towards BIM adoption in ASEAN, with a focus on mega projects taking place in Malaysia. This attracted over 55 industry leading companies. As we look ahead, the BIM Conference 2018 will discuss the next step for public and private-sector organisations — the implementation of BIM. What challenges does this present, and what skills are required to embed BIM in your organisation?

Find out at our July conference rics.org/bimmalaysia 14 RICS.ORG/MODUS

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Feedback USEFUL RICS NUMBERS CONTACT CENTRE +852 2537 7117 Enquiries / APC guidance / Subscriptions / Events / Training / Bookshop REGULATION HELPLINE +852 2116 9713 CONFIDENTIAL HELPLINE +44 (0)20 7334 3867 DISPUTE RESOLUTION SERVICES +44 (0)20 7334 3806 UK SWITCHBOARD +44 (0)20 7222 7000

PEARL OF WISDOM Sir, I very much enjoyed the article “Taking the Long View” (Case file, p42, Asia Q1 2018), especially as I am currently in Hong Kong. A potential slight correction, though. The three biggest urban centres on China’s Pearl River Delta to which the author refers seem to be Hong Kong (population: 7 million), Zhuhai (1.5 million) and Macau (0.5 million). Although those are three of the major cities in the Delta, I believe the largest are Shenzhen (10 million) and Guangzhou (12 million). The latter isn’t very well known, so it would be good if it got the recognition it deserves! Robert White, assistant consultant, Quod GUIDING PRINCIPALS Sir, I would like to endorse James Offen’s views about the way in which RICS is trying to influence members’ voting intentions (p5, Asia Q1 2018). It also shows a lack of respect for our ability to evaluate the candidates’ statements. We are all professionals who deal with this type of situation all the time, and certainly don’t need any attempt at “guidance” from a committee. Alex Fitzgerald MRICS, UK

MODUS ONLINE

Read the latest and all previous issues of Modus Asia at rics.org/modus. To unsubscribe your hard copy and receive a digital edition only, email your name and/or membership number to ricseastasia@rics.org with the subject line “Unsubscribe Modus Asia”.

Join the debate If you have any comments on any of the stories on Modus Asia, the editorial board welcomes you to send them in – in Chinese or English. We will publish them in their original format with an English translation. Get in touch at editor@ricsmodus.com 如对亚洲版 Modus 的内容有任何回应，欢迎以中文或英文电邮至编辑委员会。阁下之意见将以原文（辅以英译本）刊登。电邮地址为 editor@ricsmodus.com。

IMAGE PROBLEM Sir, I was very disappointed at the way in which the recent discussion on RICS and the meaning of public advantage was handled. The exercise was carried out on Twitter at a time when most chartered surveyors were busy and could not allocate time to engage with it. Improvement of the image of the profession in the eyes of the public is very much overdue. As an example, housing developments are rarely featured in Modus, and recent stories have tended to focus on homes for rent. RICS is clearly giving the impression to the current generation of young people that their natural aspiration to own their own homes is of no interest to the organisation. The Institution needs to have a vision for the future of housing, and not be so concerned about international big business, otherwise the public will think it has no relevance to them and no “public advantage”. As a member who attended the centenary celebrations and who is looking forward to the Institution’s 150th festivities throughout 2018, I hope that we can see a new dawn as far as our image is concerned. Jeremy Sheppard FRICS, UK

UNKNOWN QUANTITY Sir, In the past 12 months as stories such as the Grenfell Tower tragedy and the collapse of Carillion unfolded, we heard how important it was to understand whether any failures might have given rise to the events in question and, if they had, how they might be prevented from happening again. Studying the news reports into these cases, it was noticeable how seldom RICS and chartered quantity surveyors got a mention. Why should that be? Have I and my fellow CQS professionals nothing to contribute in these cases? My exciting, varied and interesting 45-year career has involved assignments around the world in the fields of energy, property, specialist services and manufacturing. The demand for my services arises from the procurement and contract management skills that are the purview of all CQSs, and which are vital constituents of almost all business transactions, regardless of the end product or service concerned. RICS describes the chartered surveyor as “the property professional” but, to my mind, I’m rather more than that. For example, a team of CQSs brought in by Carillion’s corporate backers could well have prevented the collapse of their client. And this begs the question: “Does RICS really know what its CQSs do and, if the answer is yes, why doesn’t it tell the business world?” My guess is that Carillion’s financiers weren’t aware of the help they could have summoned. The list of cases outside the real estate sector involving the skills of the CQS is endless. It is time our venerable institution took notice of the uniquely capable professionals it represents, and set about raising the awareness of them to governments and the business public alike. David RD Ainsley FRICS

FOR SUNDAY Editor Oliver Parsons / Art Director Sam Walker / Deputy Editor Andy Plowman / Contributing Editor Alex Frew McMillan / Designer Katie Wilkinson / Creative Director Matt Beaven / Account Director Karen Jenner / Advertisement Sales Director Emma Kennedy / Asia Advertising ROF Media, Bryan Chan, +852 3150 8912, bryan@rofmedia.com / Production Manager Michael Wood / Managing Director Toby Smeeton / Repro F1 Colour / Printers ROF Media / Cover Image Sawdust / Published by Sunday, 207 Union Street, London SE1 0LN wearesunday.com / For RICS James Murphy and Stephanie Bentley [UK] / Le-Anne Lim, Jeanie Chan and Rory Tufano [Asia]

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Intelligence

News / Reviews / Opinions / Reactions

CITIES FOR OUR FUTURE

How can cities with declining populations attract new talent? Discuss.

ANSWER THE BIG QUESTIONS As part of RICS’ 150th anniversary, throughout 2018 we are asking how we safeguard the future of our cities, making them better places to live, work and do business

Nowhere is this issue more pressing than in Japan, where the share of the elderly is rising at an unprecedented pace, and which has a population that is expected to shrink by one-third by 2060. Although local governments are doing all they can to woo new residents, they are fighting for pieces of the same, dwindling pie. Some municipalities, though, are trying novel approaches with a modicum of success. Hitoyoshi is a small city in Kumamoto Prefecture on Kyushu, Japan’s southernmost main island. Along with a dwindling population of 33,000, it is also trying to support a declining local forestry industry. Rather than demanding full-time residence, Hitoyoshi is HARUAKI DEGUCHI AUTHOR AND PRESIDENT OF building a casual“come-and-go”network of loosely connected RITSUMEIKAN ASIA PACIFIC UNIVERSITY, BEPPU, JAPAN fans and supporters. In 2016, the city organised a hackathon for programmers, designers, and digital creators to jointly People have always gathered in cities because they find develop software that would mitigate local forestry problems. stimulation there, as well as opportunities to help them The organisers also hoped to attract new talent to the city. realise their ambitions. Cities looking to rebuild their populations need to Much to their surprise, nearly 50 people from Tokyo, think about what they can offer that would appeal to residents, like holding Osaka, and even the northern island of Hokkaido responded. an event not found anywhere else. The Cannes Film Festival, for example, While their main interest was to develop an app, participants draws people from around the world, helping to raise the city’s profile. also gained firsthand knowledge of the issues faced by In many Japanese families, both parents work, and there is a shortage of Hitoyoshi’s forestry industry. They also became familiar daycare. A new mother may feel more comfortable returning to work if she with the city, its people, food, rich history, and natural beauty. can bring her child with her, so it is in an employer’s best interest to develop Although small in scale, the hackathon succeeded in and promote an attractive work style. We are beginning to see companies in linking Hitoyoshi with talented workers who had no previous Japan offering this sort of arrangement. A city with multiple companies knowledge of the city. It also drew in high-tech industries offering new and innovative work styles will interest prospective residents. unrelated to forestry. Such “come-and-go” arrangements The city must also contend with the challenge of an ageing population. could go a long way toward bringing economic dynamism Most companies in Japan require their employees to retire at 60. If cities back to depopulated areas. encourage firms to operate without a set retirement age, this will draw those older citizens who want – or need – to remain in work. No matter the city, it will not attract people if it does not find a way to offer What are the biggest challenges facing something interesting – whether that be an appealing work environment, our cities? Be part of the solution. signature events or other distinctive features. Take our university in Beppu, Find out more at citiesforourfuture.com a small city of 120,000 people in Oita Prefecture. Half of our students and faculty are international, and classes are taught in both English and Japanese. Japan has no other universities like this, which has helped to elevate the city and sustain both the population and the local economy.

INTERVIEW ALEX FREW MCMILLAN ILLUSTRATION BEWILDER

SHOKO YOSHIHARA RESEARCH FELLOW, TOKYO FOUNDATION, JAPAN

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Intelligence STACK ‘EM HIGH In 2017, 144 towers 200m or taller were built, including 15 “supertalls” at least 300m high. China built more than the next 10 countries combined. Source: CTBUH, 2017

NEWS IN BRIEF

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BOOKING A LOSS Anbang bought New York’s Waldorf Astoria for $1.95bn in 2015. In March the insurer was the recipient of a $9.7bn bailout from China’s government

Sentiment across region positive in first half of year Activity in most commercial property markets across AsiaPacific was positive in the first quarter of 2018, according to the RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor. Respondents indicated that this momentum is likely to increase over the next 12 months. Respondents indicated that sentiment was positive at the start of 2018, despite concerns over valuations and a lack of highquality space. However, there is some disparity across the region, as Bengaluru and Wellington report slightly more positive momentum in the short-term, while Christchurch and some key ASEAN cities are less bullish. To see the full summary, visit rics.org/APACcpm.

INDONESIA 5

UAE 4

INDIA 3

CHINA 76

DEBT BURDEN CAUSING DEVELOPERS’ KNEES TO BUCKLE

Help us fight illegal financial activity in the industry The amount of money laundered globally in one year is estimated at between 2%–5% of global GDP. Real estate is particularly vulnerable to money laundering because it provides the opportunity to legitimise large amounts of “dirty money” in a single transaction. +16% RICS has launched a public consultation running to July 2018 to engage professionals LONDON and industry stakeholders1136 on centres the proposed professional statement: Countering bribery and corruption, money laundering and terrorist financing. The statement will provide the profession with a clear description of how to manage risks within the RICS Rules of Conduct. To take part in the consultation, visit rics.org/amlps.

SOUTH KOREA 7

CHINA

rics.org/modus

INTERVIEW ALEX FREW MCMILLAN ILLUSTRATION BEWILDER

CHINA 76

This could drag overleveraged developers into trouble. Beijing began a crackdown on overborrowing that began last year and continues to claim victims. The worst-capitalised developers are already struggling to stay afloat. In April, Beijing-based Zhonghong Holding defaulted on RMB2.3bn ($364m) in bonds barely a year after its parent company had paid +24% +17% +12% +21% $429m for Blackstone’s 21% stake After two years of record sales for in SeaWorld Entertainment. China’s property developers, rising The HNA consortium that controls margins and buoyant funding NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO PARIS BERLIN Hainan Airlines to shed conditions are set to end. 180 Developers 330 centres centres 156 centres 123 continues centres assets, putting $6.6bn in real estate are cashed up now, but even the big on the block in the first quarter of operators are having to pay out an 2018 alone. HNA is also looking to extra yield of almost 2% to attract offload some or all of its 26% stake bond buyers, according to rating in Hilton Worldwide Holdings, which agency Standard & Poor’s. it bought for $6.5bn in 2016. With the Chinese authorities Anbang Insurance, the Shenzhenclamping down on questionable based owner of the Waldorf Astoria sources of funding in the shadow in New York, has seen its fortunes banking system, smaller developers fall even further. In May, founder Wu are again looking overseas to raise Xiaohui was sentenced to 18 years in funds. Domestic bond coupons prison for financial fraud. Regulators are already often at 7.5% or more. had seized control of the company in This leads S&P to conclude that developers will need to draw on their February, subsequently bailing it out to the tune of RMB61bn ($9.7bn). cash reserves to fund development.

TAKE PRIDE DO YOU HAVE A SURVEYING STORY TO SHARE? Submit your Pride in the Profession nomination at rics.org/150

Michael Moir FRICS is one of Hong Kong’s most influential surveyors. The planning standards that Moir developed during his time at the Hong Kong Jockey Club have set a benchmark in the city’s built

MICHAEL MOIR FRICS: SETTING THE BENCHMARK FOR BUILDING STANDARDS environment. He led a complete overhaul of the club’s property development and management to address the challenges of adapting, expanding and maintaining its extensive legacy property portfolio. His work has helped Hong Kong move away from a culture of rapid redevelopment, and encouraged longevity through maintenance and adaptation of existing buildings in order to meet modern-day needs. In recognition for his career as a surveyor, Moir was awarded the RICS Lifetime Achiever, Hong Kong Award in 2016. Q2 2018_MODUS A SI A

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“Innovations in technology and energy will bring dramatic changes to the air quality of Asia’s cities, but the transition won’t be easy”

bout 15 years ago, the unthinkable happened (almost) overnight. Particulate pollution in Dhaka, one of Asia’s most polluted megacities, suddenly dropped by 30%-40%. The bluish haze disappeared, and the air was again breathable. All this happened almost immediately in 2003 after the Bangladesh government banned smoke-belching gasoline tricycles, the city’s top pollution source, and replaced them with new vehicles running on compressed natural gas. Those of us living in similarly congested cities dream that this will happen to us. The statistics on urban air pollution and its impact on our health are shocking. Dhaka’s experience shows that the future can bring dramatic changes in urban air quality in Asia, thanks to innovation in the energy and transport sectors. Transport accounts for most of the world’s oil consumption, and about 40% of coal is used for generating electricity. The combination of the two is the main cause of poor air quality in our cities. The problem historically has been that there were no viable alternatives to filling our cars with petrol, or burning coal to keep the lights on. Now, we have a choice. First, coal is slowly dying. Building and operating coal power plants has become more expensive than solar power in many countries. And solar prices only continue to drop. Second, the electric car has arrived. India and China are working to ensure 100% of new vehicle sales are electric by 2030. Soon, electric vehicles will be cheaper to purchase than gasolinepowered cars. Their operating costs are already 80% lower. Third, lithium-ion cells are becoming much more affordable. Once retrofitting old cars to battery power

becomes a mainstream option, we won’t all have to be able afford a Tesla to own an electric car. Finally, solar panels will sit on almost all of our rooftops, either as a mandatory requirement or as a cheap source of power. One in three Australian households already has rooftop solar – and that has happened in just the last five years. These four factors are now forcing the private sector – even oil companies – to invest heavily in solar power and electric vehicles. Our cities may soon be free of both air and noise pollution, but the transition will not be easy. The revolution will start with broad public awareness of how clean energy can end urban pollution. This is a must to overcome the loud, if dwindling, number of skeptics. Electric cars are a policy choice to address pollution, not traffic. With the electric car, the number of vehicles on the roads will go up slowly. That should drop in the long term as artificial intelligence takes over driving, and groups of autonomous cars running in sync create tomorrow’s trams and buses. There will be less demand for car parks, with more spaces available in inner cities. Apartments could soon start“packaging”free unlimited charging for electric vehicles as part of the rental. This costs property owners $5-$7 a day, or at most, $150 a month – and is free if using rooftop solar. There’s great opportunity to build pay-as-you-charge stations for EV charging (and discharging, to buy back people’s electricity generated at home). Batteries can be sold for homes on a lease-to-own basis, or packaged as part of a new house, something that’s becoming common in Australia. The electric car revolution is so disruptive that it looks set to create a multibillion-dollar market in south-east Asia, a new hub for electric-vehicle manufacturing. Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam are poised to employ millions of workers to “make electric”. Let’s stop trying to solve today’s problems with yesterday’s tools. We should instead leapfrog to solutions based on readily available technology to build pollution-free cities in Asia. Once we embrace electric vehicles and solar power, retail demand for coal and oil will drop dramatically. Fossil fuels should stay where they belong: underground.

ILLUSTRATION ANDREA MANZATI

SOHAIL HASNIE PRINCIPAL ENERGY SPECIALIST, ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK, SYDNEY

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NEWS IN BRIEF

WE LIKE

rics.org/modus

FM framework provides best practice on decision making New guidance developed by RICS and the International Facility Management Association (IFMA) sets out a more holistic approach to facilities management (FM) by providing strategic best-practice for facilities managers and practitioners around the world. FM as a discipline is becoming increasingly critical to every organisation or property occupier in ensuring their assets function successfully as a real estate investment. This is the crux of the new guidance note, which was recently launched in Dubai during the annual IFMARICS World Workplace Forum – Middle East. To download the guidance note, visit rics.org/fmframework. Tie-up with HKIS smooths path for dual qualification

MAGE GUS KHEF

ILLUSTRATION ANDREA MANZATI

Intelligence

RICS and the Hong Kong Institute of Surveyors (HKIS) have entered into a mutual recognition agreement that streamlines the application process for dual RICS and HKIS qualifications. This landmark agreement allows surveying professionals to practise globally in markets where they have local knowledge and, ultimately, will benefit their portfolio and raise their membership standing worldwide. “This partnership marks a significant accomplishment in our 150 years of history and an opportunity to honour the outstanding contributions surveyors have made to the built environment in Hong Kong,” said Clement Lau FRICS, Chair of RICS’ Hong Kong Board. “With local and regional demand surging for Asia’s surveyors, those with dual qualifications will be strong candidates for mega-scale infrastructure and construction projects in the pipeline.” For further information, or to enquire about admission, email ricshk@rics.org.

PETRIFYING STORY The volcanic geology under the Hellisheidi power plant has created perfect conditions for CO2 to quickly turn into stone

Hellisheidi’s CO2 capture and storage What’s that? Iceland’s Hellisheidi geothermal power plant is an exemplar of clean, renewable energy production, using heat from underground volcanic activity to produce enough electricity to supply around 200,000 households in the country. But incredibly, since 2014 the plant has been going one step further – by capturing and burying the small amount of carbon emissions it produces deep underground, where it turns to stone. Although the plant’s direct air capture system is still at a small pilot scale – sucking just 50 tonnes of CO2 from the air each year – it is perhaps the first example of a power plant converting some of its carbon emissions into stone, ensuring they don’t escape back into the atmosphere. How does it work? Despite geothermal being a “clean” energy source, the process of recovering heat still releases gases, including CO2. The gases at Hellisheidi are mixed with water, which is then injected 700m underground, where it reacts with basaltic rock to form minerals. The process usually takes hundreds or thousands of years, but here, scientists have found it happens in less than two years, due to the unique properties of the rock. What’s next? The pilot has shown that storing CO2 underground is possible under the right circumstances, because the sort of basalt rock present at Hellisheidi is found in large deposits around the world. However, direct air capture still needs be made cheap enough for widespread commercial interest, lower than the current projected $100 tonne of CO2. Nevertheless, such technologies could be vital to ensuring the world does not surpass the emissions threshold that will cause global temperatures to rise dangerously past the 2°C limit set by the Paris climate agreement.

ON RECORD

WHO’S SAID WHAT… AND WHY THEY’VE SAID IT

We have our ways to do it, and you may have your ways to do it

Agrobiodiversity is a precious resource that we are in danger of losing

YU LIE, deputy director, Hong KongZhuhai-Macau Bridge Authority

ANN TUTWILER Director general, Biodiversity International

The bridge official dismissed claims that there are safety issues with the crossing, after pictures emerged that cast doubt on the integrity of one of the structure’s breakwaters.

Biodiversity – plant and animal species, the foundation of our food supply – is an endangered resource. For example, Tanzanian coffee yields have dropped 50% since 1960. Q2 2018_MODUS A SI A

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CAPE OF GOOD HOPE Despite a constitutional right to adequate housing, 7.5 million South Africans are locked out of the formal property market, and many live in informal settlements. Government-led housing schemes struggle to meet demand, and when they do, their one-size-fits-all approach can lack the flexibility that growing families need. Urban Think Tankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Empower Shack, 20 of which have been built in Cape Townâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Khayelitsha township, tackles this problem with a compact structure to which occupants can add extra floors. In doing so, this means that families can stay longer in the same site, thus strengthening the community bonds needed for safer neighbourhoods.

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SOUTH KOREA 19.7%

GROCER DOMESTIC PRODUCTS E-commerce revenue as a share of the fast-moving consumer goods sector in selected countries Source: Statista/Kantar World Panel, 2017

UK 7.5%

JAPAN 7.5%

Intelligence CHINA 6.2%

FRANCE 5.6% NETHERLANDS 2.6% SPAIN 1.8%

GERMANY 1.7%

US 1.5%

ITALY 0.5%

CO-WORKING

COMPETITION HOTS UP FOR SHARE OF THE SPACE There appears to be as much work going on in opening shared office spaces in Asia as actually occurs within then. Thanks to UK JAPAN SOUTH KOREA an influx of overseas capital, regional giants are beginning to emerge across the region. CHINA FRANCE In April, WeWork agreed to buy the Shanghai-based operator Naked Hub for NETHERLANDS $170bn SPAIN GERMANY US a reported $400m. It is WeWork’s first major move in China, where it operates in ITALY Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong. WeWork has a mammoth $4.4bn in backing from the Japanese venture capital group Softbank 19.7% 7.5% 7.5% 6.2% 5.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% for expansion in east and south-east Asia. Half of Naked Hub’s sites are in Shanghai, where it bought out city rival Raise Office JOHN HUGHES FRICS RICS PRESIDENT late last year, but it also has a presence in BITS THAT BITE Australia through its acquisition of a 70% MOVEMENT IS CENTRAL TO THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, WITH NEW It’s the currency stake in the flexible-office operator Gravity. ways of transporting people and goods, and – perhaps more significantly of tomorrow’s By 2020, it aims to have 200 locations in – the constant exchange of information of all kinds. economy, but the Asia-Pacific region. responsible Today, all types of structures are becoming “smart” as monitoring and Chinese rival Ucommune, backed by use of data controls systems become more sophisticated. City leaders are also beginning will be critical RockTree Capital and Alibaba Group, has also to recognise that being a “wired” community is advantageous for economic to avoid the been on the acquisition path. It bought the downsides development and benefits citizens’ quality of life. Shenzhen incubator and co-work operator Whether it is to make buildings and infrastructure run well or to help Wedo at the end of March, two weeks after businesses make smart decisions, data is at the heart of everything. But as buying competitor Woo Space. the connected digital economy gathers pace, the stakes in terms of data In south-east Asia, WeWork has also quality and management get higher. bought Singapore shared-office operator Spacemob. Local rival JustCo has six In property, those with access to the most comprehensive and reliable data locations in its Singapore base, as well as are at an advantage. In the past, data was closely guarded and professionals two in Thailand. With backing from Sansiri, were limited to using it only in the way that was prescribed. Today, data one of Thailand’s largest developers, JustCo availability is far greater and access is easier. Advancements in technology also plans to expand into Jakarta, Kuala are also providing numerous benefits to the market, enabling surveyors to Lumpur, Manila and Ho Chi Minh City. capture information more rapidly, and to edit and share it immediately. In India, Awfis Space Solutions plans to However, with opportunities come challenges. As the range and volume expand from 50 locations to 100, and has of data increases and the ability to use it for commercial purposes grows, raised $20m from US private equity giant many questions arise regarding responsible data capture and management. Sequoia Capital’s India arm to fund the push. While today blockchain is largely known for its connection to Bitcoin, many suggest it has greater potential in records storage (Blockchain, p20). Used in combination with standardised, trusted sources of real property information regarding ownership, sales transactions and leases, blockchain could remove the need for repeated data checks by providing efficient access to trustworthy, uniform information. Most blockchains are ledgers that simply keep track of transactions. One might imagine an additional layer on top of the blockchain protocol, giving it the authority to tell whether a real estate transaction is valid or not. We need to be alert to the innovations that are certain to arise as this revolution progresses and be ready to adapt our standards, working practices NAKED AMBITION and business models in order to benefit from them. WeWork’s Yunnan Lu branch in Shanghai. The city is Follow John on Twitter @JohnHughesTO home to half of recent acquisition Naked Hub’s sites

ILLUSTRATION BERND SCHIFFERDECKER IMAGES URBAN THINK TANK; WEWORK

“As the ability to use data grows, many questions arise”

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Online Academy Online Academy Flexible learning Flexible learning Online Academy

Flexible learning solutions solutions solutions Flexible learning Flexible learning solutions

Flexible learning solutions solutions

Whether you prefer live and interactive Whether web classes you prefer live and interactive web classes you prefer and web or practical e-learning courses, RICS Whether or Online practical Academy RICS Online Academy Whether youe-learning prefer live livecourses, and interactive interactive web classes classes or practical e-learning courses, RICS Online will help you up-skill your technical, management will help you and up-skill your technical, management and or practical e-learning courses, RICS Online Academy Academy will help you up-skill your technical, management soft skills. soft skills. will help you up-skill your technical, management and and soft skills. soft skills. All courses provide a flexible from way toover gain All courses CPD with provide no a flexible from way toover gain 123 CPD with no More than 25,000 people More 123 than 25,000 people All courses provide a flexible way to gain CPD with travel expenses or time out of the office travel necessary. expenses or time out of the office necessary. All courses provide a flexible way toover gain CPD Academy with no no More than 25,000 people from 123 countries have chosen the RICS countries Online Academy have chosen the RICS Online More than 25,000 people from over 123 travel expenses or time out of the office necessary. travel expenses or time out of the office necessary. countries have chosen the RICS Online Academy courses: platform in thecountries Popular courses: asPopular their learning aspast their three learning years. platform the past three years. have chosen theinRICS Online Academy Popular courses: as their learning platform in the past three years. Popular courses: as their learning platform in the past three years. • QS in Practice –range blendedof learning • QS in Practice –a blended The extensive online courses The extensive cover range oflearning online courses cover a • QS in Practice – blended learning • in Practice blended learning extensive range of online a • Construction Project Management distance • QS Construction learning Project Management –technical distance cover learning wide range ofin topics, including–The wide technical range skills, ofin–topics, including skills, The extensive range of online courses courses cover a • Construction in Project Management – distance learning wide range of topics, including technical skills, • Project Management –technical distance learning management andPrinciples membership, management and provide membership, and provide wide range ofinand topics, including skills, • Building Surveying: in Practice • –Construction Building distance Surveying: learning Principles in Practice – distance learning management and membership, and provide • Building Surveying: Principles in Practice – distance learning flexible learning solutions that management flexible can be studied learning solutions that can be studied and membership, and provide • Surveying: Principles in Practice – distance learning • Commercial Management in Practice flexible – web • Building Commercial classes Management in Practice – web classes learning solutions that can be studied at any time. at• any time. flexible learning solutions that can be studied Commercial Management in Practice – web classes • Commercial Management in Practice – web classes • Surveying Safely – e-learning Surveying at time. at• any any time.Safely – e-learning • • Surveying Surveying Safely Safely – – e-learning e-learning

Popular subjects in Asia: Popular subjects in Popular subjectsProject in Asia: Asia:Management • Construction Construction Project Management • Project Management •• Construction Construction ProjectModelling Management Building Information (BIM) Building Information Modelling (BIM) • Building Information Modelling (BIM) •• Building Information Modelling (BIM) Commercial Management of Infrastructure Commercial Management of Infrastructure • Management Projects Projects • Commercial Commercial Management of of Infrastructure Infrastructure Projects Quantity Surveying in Practice Quantity Surveying in Practice • Projects • Quantity Surveying in •• Quantity Surveying in Practice Practice Corporate Real Estate and Facilities Management Corporate Real Estate and Facilities Management • Corporate Real Estate and • Corporate Real Estate and Facilities Facilities Management Management

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eull fullrange rangeofof To courses view the please fullrange range visit:academy.rics.org ofcourses coursesplease pleasevisit: visit:academy.rics.org academy.rics.org To courses view the please full visit: ofacademy.rics.org To view the full range of courses please visit: academy.rics.org To view the full range of courses please visit: academy.rics.org view thefull fullrange rangeofofcourses coursesplease pleasevisit: visit:academy.rics.org academy.rics.org ToTo view the MODUS_Asia Q2 18_P06-13_Intel_v0.3.indd 12

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Intelligence

NUMBER CRUNCH SINCE 2013 CHINA HAS BEEN ACCELERATING ITS INVESTMENTS IN COUNTRIES ALONG ITS BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE Source: Thomson Reuters; Statista, 2018

SECRET SURVEYOR

“There is some reassurance to be found in coming across familiar patterns – or so I thought”

MINING AND METALS

OIL AND GAS

$38.6bn

$6.7bn

hen encountering a problem it is sometimes possible to overthink an issue. When any property professional is confronted with a problem there is some reassurance to be found in coming across familiar patterns as a basis on which to start that rational and diagnostic approach towards a resolution to keep clients happy. Or so I thought. My particular case was a discolouration to the internal walls of a house. Tackling of it with detergent and anti-mould wipes appeared to have been successful in the short term but the problem had returned. I was called in to try to provide the answers. The external shell of the house was, visually, as good as new, with no cracked, damaged or missing elements. Moisture and humidity testers went back in their cases along with binoculars, compass and mobile-phone-sourced Met Office records. I now had to call upon technology. My boroscopic camera was put on charge but I would need a scaffolding rig to reach the area of investigation. Enlisting additional trades as chargeable services may not be acceptable to the client. I thought laterally. The environmental company that I approached did not reply to my enquiry about using its thermal imaging camera. The drone operator, regularly lobbying for an opportunity to show off his aircraft, felt that the urban locality was too tight to take off and fly about in. These further thoughts took a bit of time and although grateful for my efforts, the client was still a bit anxious. A good rule is to keep things in context. Yes, it was an inconvenience, but no, it was not a major health hazard. We had reached the stage of mutually accepted defeat. The actual cause was something that I could not have anticipated. In the course of a bit of adjustment to plumbing services, the actions – or rather inactions –of a slug in an overflow pipe had been the problem. Who’d have thought it?

REAL ESTATE, HOSPITALITY AND CONSTRUCTION

$4.9bn

DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

$14.5bn

FINANCIAL SERVICES

$14.3bn

CONSUMER PRODUCTS

TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA AND TELECOM

$6.7bn

$12.4bn

AUTOMOTIVE AND TRANSPORT

$5.6bn

LIFE SCIENCE

$2.7bn

POWER AND UTILITIES

$11bn

AGRICULTURE

$1.8bn

$0.02bn 2000

$0.2bn 2005

$5.45bn 2010

As well as huge investments in infrastructure, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity from China’s Belt and Road initiative has increased significantly since 2013. Knight Frank reports that more than $33bn in deals were concluded between January and August 2017, up 136% on the same period in

$13.57bn $30.01bn $44.68bn 2015

2016

2017

2016. To put it in a wider context, in 2012 the figure was just over $2bn, while by the end of 2017 M&A activity surpassed $44bn. With $900bn of investments forecast over the next 30 years, Belt and Road is one of the clearest manifestations of China’s vision and influence on the world stage. Q2 2018_MODUS A SI A

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18/05/2018 10:51

RICS Awards

2018年RICS大奖亚洲特辑 RICS AWARDS 2018

ASIA’S FINEST

The RICS Awards 2018 for Hong Kong and mainland China have highlighted some superlative projects, teams and achievements. Here is our guide to this year’s winners at both events

2018年RICS大奖今年继续在香港和中国大陆表彰杰出的项目、团队和成就。接下来，我们将一起总览两地的颁奖盛况。

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RICS Awards

RICS AWARDS 2018 HONG KONG After a vigorous and careful judging process by a team of 13 jurors, we are proud to announce the winners of the RICS Awards 2018 Hong Kong. With this being the year of RICS’ 150th anniversary, the annual dinner and presentation ceremony, held on 23 March 2018 at the Grand Hyatt Hong Kong, was one of the most important events celebrating this milestone. In two of the highlights of the evening, the RICS Lifetime Achiever Award was presented to Stewart Chi Kin Leung, chairman of Wheelock Properties, for his contribution to Hong Kong’s built environment over the past 50 years, while the Young Surveyor of the Year Award was presented to Ryan Wong MRICS for his great work at CBRE, JLL and the Urban Renewal Authority.

THE WINNERS OFFICE TEAM CBRE

PROFESSIONAL CONSULTANCY SERVICES TEAM KNIGHT FRANK

For advising on the largest leasing transaction in Central for 10 years as HKEX Group consolidated its offices into one site at One Exchange Square.

From advisory services, to design and implementation and planning, West Kowloon Cultural District is being shaped by this team’s expert guidance.

RESIDENTIAL TEAM SAVILLS HONG KONG

PROJECT CONSTRUCTION TEAM GAMMON CONSTRUCTION

Pulling out all the stops on an exclusive Victoria Peak plot, in the face of stiff competition and tough restrictions on Chinese capital, brought a HK$2.8bn sale.

The complex build required for Capri, a high-spec residential project in East Kowloon, was completed ahead of schedule and with zero fatalities.

RETAIL TEAM NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

PROJECT MANAGEMENT TEAM CBRE

YOUNG SURVEYOR OF THE YEAR MR RYAN WONG MRICS

With the Forest, the developer created a new sports-led, nature-inspired retail destination with a diverse range of tenants on the iconic Sneaker Street.

Tasked with ensuring the fit-out of two kindergartens for Nord Anglia Education were completed within a tight time frame, the team rose to the challenge.

As associate director of project management, Ryan has used his wide professional network to diversify CBRE’s portfolio and strengthen client relations.

FACILITIES MANAGEMENT TEAM JLL

REFURBISHMENT/REVITALISATION TEAM WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT COMPANY

LIFETIME ACHIEVER AWARD MR STEWART CHI KIN LEUNG

As well as growing its operations by 30% in 2017, JLL’s 100% client retention rate is a testament to the high levels of trust and satisfaction it inspires in its clients.

The regeneration of the Murray Building into a luxury hotel restored a Hong Kong landmark to its former glory.

PROPERTY MANAGEMENT TEAM MTR CORPORATION

SUSTAINABILITY ACHIEVEMENT MANULIFE & CITI

The Premier Plus service provided by MTR at Two International Finance Centre has helped it become one of the world’s most prestigious skyscrapers.

Building on its double gold LEED and BEAM Plus ratings, One Bay East added LEED Commercial Interiors Platinum and WELL Silver to its list of awards in 2017.

BEST DEAL OF THE YEAR SAVILLS HONG KONG for 19 Wang Chiu Road, and WHEELOCK PROPERTIES AND CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD for 8 Bay East

– both incredibly complex transactions that required expert advisory services. CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY PROJECT WHEELOCK PROPERTIES (HONG KONG)

For its inspiring programmes to build opportunities for disadvantaged youths, and its work as an incubator of talent.

Mr Leung is the chairman of Wheelock Properties and the chairman of the executive committee of the Real Estate Developers Association of Hong Kong. FOR MORE COVERAGE OF THE EVENT,

including a full list of winners and pictures, go to rics.org/hkawards

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RICS Awards

IMAGES 1 . O N E B AY E A S T 2 . M R R YA N W O N G M R I C S 2

3 . M R S T E WA R T C H I K I N L E U N G 4. C APRI, GAMMON CONSTRUC TION

THE JURY HEAD JUROR CHRIS BROOKE FRICS President-elect, RICS; Managing Director, Brooke Husband

GUY BRADLEY MRICS Chief Executive, Swire Properties KWONG-WING CHAU FRICS Head and Chair Professor, Department of Real Estate and

Construction, University of Hong Kong; Director, Ronald Coase Centre for Property Rights Research, University of Hong Kong ALAN CHILD FRICS Chairman, Knight Frank Hong Kong ALAN DALGLEISH FRICS Chief Executive, ANREV GERARD KIPLING FRICS Managing Director, Oak Tree Property Services

DR CHARLES LAM MRICS Managing Director, Real Estate, Baring Private Equity Asia DOREEN LEE Vice-Chairman, The Wharf (Holdings) PHILIP LO FRICS Former Chairman, Rider Levitt Bucknall (China & Hong Kong) DAVID TANG MRICS Property Director, MTR Corporation

TONY TSE Chairman, Property Management Services Authority; Founder, Hong Kong Seek Road; Director, Brand Star ANDREW WEIR Global Chairman of Real Estate and Construction, KPMG YU TAK-CHEUNG Deputy Director of Buildings, Buildings Department, Hong Kong SAR Government

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RICS Awards

RICS AWARDS 2018 CHINA 2018年RICS中国大奖

Thanks to the great success of last year’s event, the RICS Awards 2018 China attracted a huge amount of market attention and industry participation. This year, the awards grew to 11 categories to keep up with market trends such as urbanisation and big data. Joining fields such as consultancy services, research, facilities management and construction, awards for City Regeneration Team and Best BIM Application were added for the first time. The jury was impressed by the fierce level of competition between the companies and organisations who entered the awards, and the remarkable examples of innovation, sustainable development practices and distinguished business performances on display in all the entries. 继首届RICS Awards的热烈反响，RICS Awards 2018 China继续吸引业界的广泛关注和积极参与，设立囊括咨询服务、研究、设施管理、建造等重要领域的11项大奖。为更紧扣城市化和大数据等行业趋势，特别新增了城市更新团队和BIM最佳应用大奖。经过激烈的角逐和知名专家评审委员会的专业评选，数十家知名机构和企业凭借突出的创新成果、可持续发展举措和业绩增长脱颖而出，赢得RICS Awards 2018 China大奖。

THE WINNERS

冠军公司&团队

PROFESSIONAL CONSULTANCY SERVICE TEAM – CONSTRUCTION

专业咨询服务团队建造领域凯谛思华东建筑设计研究院有限公司

COMMERCIAL PROJECT ARCADIS FOR RAFFLES CITY, HANGZHOU

商业地产项目凯谛思杭州来福士广场项目

专业咨询服务团队地产领域仲量联行战略咨询，评估咨询，物业管理咨询部

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT SHUI ON LAND FOR LAKEVILLE LUXE, SHANGHAI

住宅项目瑞安房地产发展有限公司翠湖天地隽荟

RESEARCH TEAM CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

研究团队戴德梁行

DEAL OF THE YEAR CBRE FOR HONGKOU SOHO, SHANGHAI AND JLL FOR WEWORK OFFICE LEASING (JOINT WINNERS)

年度最佳交易世邦魏理仕 (虹口SOHO项目) 仲量联行 ( WeWork办公楼租赁项目)

FACILITIES MANAGEMENT TEAM CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD AND GT LAND PLAZA (JOINT WINNERS)

设施管理团队戴德梁行高德置地广场

BEST BIM APPLICATION JCM INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD, CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE AND CES INVESTMENT (JOINT WINNERS)

BIM 最佳应用

CITY REGENERATION TEAM ARCADIS FOR JIAN YE LI, SHANGHAI AND COFCO FOR COFCO PLAZA, BEIJING (JOINT WINNERS)

城市更新团队凯谛思建业里项目团队北京中粮广场发展有限公司北京中粮广场团队

SUSTAINABILITY ACHIEVEMENT COFCO FOR COFCO LANDMARK, BEIJING AND ARCPLUS GROUP FOR HONGQIAO STATE GUEST HOTEL NO.9 (JOINT WINNERS)

可持续发展成就北京昆庭资产管理有限公司华东建筑集团股份有限公司

CONSTRUCTION PROJECT ARCADIS FOR BMW NEX & FWD PROJECT

建造项目凯谛思宝马沈阳新五系 NEX 整车厂项目

FOR MORE COVERAGE OF THE EVENT,

如欲了解更多颁奖盛典详情以及获奖公司信息，一览活动现场照片，请点击rics.org/awardschina

ARCADIS AND EAST CHINA ARCHITECTURAL DESIGN & RESEARCH INSTITUTE (JOINT WINNERS) PROFESSIONAL CONSULTANCY SERVICE TEAM – REAL ESTATE JLL’S STRATEGY, ASSESSMENT AND PROPERTY MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT

including a full list of winners and pictures, go to rics.org/awardschina

中国电力科学研究院有限公司, 联合建管（北京）国际工程科技有限责任公司上海东航投资有限公司

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RICS Awards

IMAGES 1. RAFFLES CITY, HANGZHOU 2. WEWORK WEIHAI LU, SHANGHAI 3. COFCO PLAZA, BEIJING 图示 1. 来福士广场，杭州 2. WEWORK办公室，威海路，上海 3. 中粮广场，北京

评审委员会

THE JURY HEAD JUROR GAO SHIBIN MRICS Member, RICS Asia Pacific Commercial Property Committee; Independent Non-Executive Director, China Jinmao Group STANLEY CHING Senior MD, Managing Partner of Real Estate, CITIC Capital ANDY TO MRICS MD, North Asia, US Green Building Council FANG WEI MRICS Deputy General Manager, Sino Ocean Capital Co. Ltd

HE QINGHUA FRICS Professor, Doctor Supervisor, Construction Management and Real Estate Department, School of Economics and Management, Tongji University LIANG SHIYI FRICS National Vice-Director of Theory Study & Technical Progress, Committee of China Construction Project Management Association TIM WANG Senior MD, Blackstone RAYMOND WANG MRICS CEO, Zhong Rong Capital;

MD, Zhong Rong Trust WU JING Head, Dep. of Construction Management, Tsinghua University; Acting Director, Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University XIA BING MRICS Vice-Chairman, China Association of Engineering Consultants; Deputy General Manager, Arcplus Group ZHANG JUNJIE President, Chief Architect, East China Architectural Design & Research Institute

梁士毅 FRICS 中国建设监理协会全国专家委员会理论研究和技术进步小组副主任王天兵黑石集团高级董事总经理王宇涛 MRICS 中融信托执行总裁；中融长河资本首席执行官吴璟清华大学建设管理系主任；清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心执行主任夏冰 MRICS 中国建设监理协会副主席；华建集团副总经理张俊杰华东建筑设计研究总院院长，总建筑师 

评审委员会主席高世斌 MRICS RICS亚太区商用物业专业理事会理事; 中国金茂独立非执行董事程骁远中信资本高级董事总经理，房地产部执行合伙人杜日生 MRICS 美国绿色建筑委员会北亚区董事总经理房炜 MRICS 远洋资本有限公司副总经理何清华 FRICS 同济大学经济与管理学院建设管理与房地产系教授，博士生导师

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Automation

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How will cities be changed by the arrival of cars that never need to be parked, driven or even owned? Adam Branson hails the autonomous vehicle revolution

icture the scene. It is Monday morning and time to go to work. You pat your pocket in search of a car key. Then you stop and chide yourself – maybe your memory really is getting worse? – and instead reach inside your coat for your smartphone. You load up an app and discover that a car will be there to collect you in five minutes – perfectly on time, as it has been since you dumped your own car six months ago. The vehicle picking you up has no driver to distract you with complaints about “bloody cyclists” and its electric motor is practically silent. You settle back into your seat, pull up the morning’s newspaper on your tablet and enjoy a congestion-free, peaceful journey into the office. As you alight, you ask yourself yet again how you ever put up with your old commute. It sounds great, but this is surely still a scenario at least far enough off that you will be long-retired before you stand to benefit. Not so. If both the automotive industry and city authorities get it right, fleets of affordable, driverless cars could become a reality within the next five years. The technology required to support such a scenario is tantalisingly close. Car manufacturers, among them BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz,

are developing autonomous or semiautonomous vehicles, and Tesla chief executive Elon Musk is planning a test drive of a fully automated Model S car from California to New York. Such cars may not yet be evident on the streets of most towns and cities, but in some parts of the world residents are starting to get used to the sight of test vehicles without drivers gliding past their homes or places of work. In the UK, Milton Keynes is the favoured spot because of its logical grid system, while General Motors has been testing its Chevrolet Bolt prototype on the streets of Detroit, Scottsdale in Arizona and San Francisco. Indeed, Philippe Crist, senior economist at the Paris-based International Transport Forum (ITF), reports that on a recent trip to San Francisco, the preponderance of driverless cars on the city’s streets was unmissable. “In the time I was there the volume of automated vehicles I saw on the street went up by a serious magnitude,” he says. “One day I was out taking pictures and when I looked back at them I realised there were several different types of driverless vehicles in the background.” The fact that the technology appears to have reached a tipping point has prompted myriad organisations, from international transport thinktanks such as the ITF to architecture, engineering and management consultancy businesses, as well as real estate advisory firms, to start thinking about how it might be put to best use. Most experts in the field agree that in an ideal world, fleets of shared vehicles – think Uber without the controversy over drivers’ employment rights – would simply replace private cars in urban areas. However, they are also a pragmatic bunch and recognise that this will not happen overnight. As a result, a scenario in which fully automated vehicles (AVs) – whether privately owned or as a new form of mass transit – share road space with traditional cars has to be considered. “How that plays out is highly uncertain because the more that situation presents itself, and the more experience people have of how autonomous vehicles react, will potentially lead to new behaviours,” says Crist. “So, at a four-way junction, if you know the autonomous vehicles will just stop if you edge out, then you might [do so]. There is the potential to ‘game’ the system.”

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Automation

One option open to city authorities, of course, is to simply ban traditional cars from central urban areas. In Western societies, such a move would no doubt be regarded as draconian, however. Instead, researchers hope that if the benefits of AVs as mass transport can be sufficiently well demonstrated and communicated, market forces will do the job just as well as legislation. The evidence base to support those benefits is building all the time. A 2015 ITF report, for instance, honed in on a modelling exercise conducted in Lisbon, Portugal, which found that integrating a fleet of driverless vehicles into the city’s public transport system could make 90% of conventional cars redundant. An exercise in Helsinki, Finland, the results of which were published late last year, reached similar conclusions. The benefits also extend into the realms of public safety – for pedestrians, drivers, passengers and cyclists alike. Estimates vary, but the general conclusion is that around 90% of accidents are caused by human error. Even 100% AV saturation would not eliminate accidents completely – Crist notes that AVs are only as good as their algorithms, which are of course written by humans – but even partial introduction should cut accident rates dramatically.

the introduction of fleets of AVs will have a massive impact on cityscapes around the world. But his conclusions on how the freed-up space might be used are subtly different. “In terms of parking lots and structures, there should be some significant gains in cities. [But] in terms of on-road space, this is not generally useful for development, and if some is freed up due to AVs and vehicle sharing, it might more productively be allocated to bike lanes, transit lanes, or even landscaped linear parks.” All this will, of course, have implications for both developers and landlords.“[Through either] constructing new commercial real estate with reduced parking, or redeveloping an older building’s parking spaces into modern offices, driverless vehicles will ultimately alter the demand for parking, freeing up space in and around existing properties,” says Neil Gorman MRICS, a partner at Cushman & Wakefield in London. So, the evidence that shared autonomous vehicles could make a massive difference on multiple issues is increasingly solid. What is not clear, however, is whether »

LOOK MUM, NO HANDS

Chevrolet’s Bolt EV prototype (below) is currently undergoing self-driving trials in several cities across the US, while Mercedes-Benz’s F015 research car (bottom) points the way to what an autonomous-vehicle-filled future might look like

IMAGES JEFFREY SAUGER FOR GENERAL MOTORS; DAIMLER

hen there is the small matter of what AVs could mean for the built environment. A 2016 report by multidisciplinary consultant WSP and architect Farrells, Making Better Places: Autonomous vehicles and future opportunities, suggests the introduction of AVs could free up thousands of hectares in urban areas (graphic, p24), both in terms of reduced parking provision and road space requirements. That could free up land that could be put to better use, which at a time of rapid urbanisation, could prove to be transformational. “Each hectare of additional developable land is worth millions,” says Rachel Skinner, UK head of development at WSP in London. “Freeing up this land will create more viable developments. Shared autonomous vehicles will require storage, but not parking spaces. There is enormous potential for a new generation of living streets and communities.” David Levinson, professor of transport in the School of Civil Engineering at the University of Sydney, Australia, agrees that

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Running on empty The technical challenges of perfecting self-driving cars are huge. But they’re nothing compared to the savings they could offer to passengers. Just don’t set your heart on becoming a cab driver …

MILEAGE DEPRECIATION $0.07

FINANCING $0.01 LICENCE, REGISTRATION $0.01

FUEL COST $0.09

PLATFORM REVENUE (EG UBER) $0.40

DOLLARS PER MILE UBER-STYLE TAXI WITH HUMAN DRIVER

DRIVER NET EARNINGS $1.33 INSURANCE $0.08 MAINTENANCE $0.05

TOTAL

$2.04 INSURANCE $0.08

DOLLARS PER MILE SELF-DRIVING UBER-STYLE TAXI

TNC REVENUE $0.40

FINANCING $0.01

MILEAGE DEPRECIATION $0.07 FLEET MANAGEMENT COST $0.08 FUEL COST $0.08

AUTONOMOUS HARDWARE $0.08

$0.86

HOW MUCH SPACE WOULD BE SAVED BY CARS THAT NEVER PARKED?

LICENCE, REGISTRATION $0.01

HOW MUCH OF ITS LIFE DOES A CAR SPEND PARKED? TIME IN USE 4%

PARKING SPACES TAKE UP 16% OF LONDON’S STREET SPACE

TIME PARKED ELSEWHERE 16%

TIME PARKED AT HOME 80%

Sources: Rocky Mountain Institute, 2016; WSP/Farrells, 2016

TOTAL

MAINTENANCE $0.05

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Sources: Rocky Mountain Institute, 2016; WSP/Farrells, 2016

Automation

individuals – both those in power and regular consumers – will choose to make it happen. First, there is the general public’s love affair with driving, which the ongoing popularity of automotive TV shows such as Top Gear and The Grand Tour demonstrates clearly. However, Levinson does not believe the issue is insurmountable.“The new paradigm emerges when the proponents of the old paradigm die off,” he says bluntly. “Over the next 25 years, more than 25% of the population will be new residents to a city. While some people like to drive, eventually the safety consequences of that will be recognised as unacceptable when there are safer cars available.”

he more pressing issue is what steps public authorities and industry will have to take to realise the potential benefits. This is a complicated area – we are, after all, talking about the introduction of a new form of mass transportation into often dense, existing urban areas – but one that a new report from WSP, New Mobility Now, launched in Montreal at the end of last year, addresses head on. The research involved talking to about 50 organisations around the world, and analyses the complex interplay between private sector entrepreneurship and state intervention that will be required to maximise the benefits of shared AVs. It makes clear that solutions will have to be tailored to local circumstances, but “what it doesn’t do is give a road map, because road maps are nearly always wrong”, says Ian Patey, head of intelligent transport at WSP and author of the report. What the research does do is assert that city authorities will have to get stuck in, particularly when it comes to licensing what vehicles are allowed on which roads at what times. That, however, is neither revolutionary nor draconian: as Levinson points out, authorities already license taxis, separate bus lanes and ban high-polluting vehicles from city centres, to take just three examples. “City governments will need to manage when and where and how cars can be used, just as they do today,” says Levinson. “Deciding which roads are for movement and which are for local access will remain an important function.” Authorities will also have to think hard about how AVs interact with existing mass transport systems, such as above-ground

and underground rail services, as well as buses. While this could lead to a reduction in services on underused routes, the hope is that AVs will complement rather than damage existing services. “Infrequent services with few passengers are likely to be replaced with more taxi-like services,” says Levinson. “[But] high-flow services in large cities cannot be easily replaced because AVs, efficient as they are and might become, will still consume more space per person than a crowded train.” The partnership between Uber rival Lyft and train company Amtrack in the US, whereby a first/last mile option is offered to customers when they buy a train ticket, perhaps points the way forward.

So, when might we come to rely on these fleets of AVs? Crist is willing to hazard a guess. “I think we will probably see the rollout of fully automated vehicles in specific contexts within the next five years,” he says. Levinson predicts a more dramatic – if longer-term – revolution.“Over the next 25 years, there will be a transition from 0% to 100%,”he says.“Eventually, just as there are, essentially, no horses in our cities any more, there will be no human-driven vehicles.” It will not happen everywhere at the same time, but once the concept is proven, the advantages offered by shared AVs could rapidly sweep around the world. Once you get your head around the concept, it is hard not to get impatient. 

EVENTUALLY, JUST AS THERE ARE, ESSENTIALLY, NO HORSES IN OUR CITIES ANY MORE, THERE WILL BE NO HUMAN-DRIVEN VEHICLES DAVID LEVINSON University of Sydney

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this.timestamp = timestamp; this.data = data; this.hash = this.calculateHash();} calculateHash() {return SHA256(this.index + this.previousHash + this.timestamp + JSON.stringify(this.data toString()} class Blockchain {constructor() {this.chain = [this.createGenesisBlock()];} createGenesisBlock() {return new Block(0,“01/01/2017”, “Genesis block”, “0”);} getLatestBlock()return this. chain[this.chain.length - 1]; addBlock(newBlock) {newBlock.previousHash = this.getLatestBlock().hash; newBlock.hash = newBlock.calculateHash(); this.chain. push (newBlock);} isChainValid () {for (let i = 1; i < this.chain.length; i++) {const currentBlock = this. chain[i]; const previousBlock = this.chain[i - 1]; if What is blockchain? (currentBlock.hash !== currentBlock. calculateHash()) {return false;} if (currentBlock. previousHash !== previousBlock.hash) {return false;}} return true;}} let savjeeCoin = new Blockchain(); savjeeCoin.addBlock(new Block(1, “20/07/2017”, { amount: 4 })); savjeeCoin addBlock(new Block(2, “20/07/2017”, { amount: 8 })); Is it *really* going to change the property sector? constructor(index, timestamp, data, previousHash = ‘’) {this.index = index; this.previousHash = previousHash; this.timestamp = timestamp; this.data = data; this.hash = this.calculateHash(); this.nonce = 0;} mineBlock And how does it work, anyway?(difficulty) {while (this.hash.substring(0, difficulty) !== Array(difficulty + 1).join(“0”)) {this.nonce++;this.hash = this. calculateHash();} console .log(“BLOCK MINED: “ + this. hash);} calculateHash() {return SHA256(this.index + this.previousHash + this.timestamp + JSON.stringify(this. data) + this.nonce).toString();} class Block {constructor (index, timestamp, data, previousHash = ‘’) {this.index = index; this.previousHash = previousHash; this.timestamp = timestamp; this.data = data; this.hash = this. calculateHash(); this.nonce = 0;} calculateHash() Everything you always wanted to know about blockchain* {return SHA256(this.index + this.previousHash + this. timestamp + JSON.stringify(this.data) + this.nonce). toString();} mineBlock(difficulty) {while (this.hash. substring(0, difficulty) !== Array(difficulty + 1).join(“0” {this.nonce++; this.hash = this. calculateHash();} console .log(“BLOCK MINED: “( *but were afraid to ask) + this.hash);}} constructor() {this.chain = [this.createGenesisBlock()]; this.difficulty = 2;} addBlock(newBlock) { newBlock.previousHash = this. getLatestBlock().hash; newBlock.mineBlock| 26 RICS.ORG/MODUS

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Blockchain

WORDS // STUART WATSON

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handful of years ago hardly anyone except tech geeks had heard of blockchain. Today, the digital world is abuzz with claims that the system’s decentralised database technology has ushered in a new internet that is transforming the way people do business in every sector of the economy, real estate included. Blockchain is an application of computer science that enables highly secure peer-topeer digital transactions (graphic, p28). It offers the potential to increase transparency and trust, reduce fraud and speed up a wide variety of business processes by reducing the need for middlemen and paperwork. “This is a technology that is incredibly interesting and could be transformational, but there is a lot of hype around it,” observes Alan Penn, professor of architectural and urban computing at University College London’s Bartlett School of Architecture. UCL has established a Construction Blockchain Consortium which, Penn says, is “bringing together the industry with academics and scoping out whether or not these technologies have any real use”. Some dizzying scenarios are being sketched out for blockchain’s potential to overhaul the way the property sector operates, and a multiplicity of tech start-ups are now developing applications employing the technology. Stockholm-based Chromaway is among the most advanced blockchain companies in developing a practical application for the technology within the property sector.“You can take the analogy with the internet,” says

CEO Henrik Hjelte. “In the early days of the internet, some business models were totally unrealistic and futuristic, like showing video on the internet or buying groceries online. “[But] you don’t have to buy into a futuristic vision of blockchain with everyone buying and selling property using tokens on their mobile phones. This technology also has a lot of advantages for incremental improvements,” he adds. One sector of the real estate business in which blockchain looks likely to have an early impact is the registering and transferring of land titles. By creating an immutable digital token that represents the title to a property, and storing it within a publicly accessible ledger, blockchain can remove the need for paperwork and vastly reduce the opportunities for corruption and fraud. Several national or state governments have already begun to explore the potential benefits of creating such a registry, including Georgia, Dubai, Honduras, Cook County in Illinois in the US and the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.“That makes it fast and easy to register titles and has an effect on GDP – in particular for developing countries, but also for developed countries,” says Hjelte. Chromaway is undertaking a pilot project with the Swedish land registry that goes a step further, exploring how to create a blockchain“smart contract”that can facilitate transfer of ownership. “We are taking a paper-based process that takes three months and creating a digital process that can bring it down to less than a day,” claims Hjelte. Olly Freedman MRICS, director of sales at commercial property data solutions provider Datscha in London, believes blockchain applications could speed up the conveyancing process: “If all the data for a property is held on a virtual ledger, and that ledger can be accessed and amended in

seconds, the whole legal process becomes much faster. The process of lawyers doing searches and then reporting back would be shortened significantly.” Smart contracts, which can be coded to execute when certain conditions are met, offer exciting possibilities for the real estate sector, argues Rob Parker MRICS, senior portfolio manager, global occupier services at Cushman & Wakefield in Singapore. “For example, you can have a deposit paid in at the start of the lease and because all transactions are visible on the blockchain, you can check that your landlord hasn’t spent that money or run away with it. Then, at the end of the contract, you can implement a multisignature system so if both landlord and tenant are happy that the deposit should be returned, then it comes straight back. Alternatively, if there is a query, then a third party can arbitrate the dispute and when two of the three agree, the money is released.”

ithin the construction sector, smart contracts could be coded to pay subcontractors automatically as soon as work has been completed and checked, reducing the payment delays that cause cashflow problems for small businesses. Smart contracts could even remove the need for human intervention in some processes altogether. “You could use internet-of-things-connected devices to record energy and water usage. The service charge would be very easily verified and the payments could automatically be taken through a smart contract,” says Parker. Blockchain can be combined with BIM to reduce the potential for disputes in the construction sector, suggests Penn. “If you have a history of exactly what took place within the blockchain, which with BIM becomes possible because everything is »

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Someone requests a transaction

The requested transaction is broadcast to a P2P network consisting of computers, known as nodes

The network of nodes validates the transaction and the user’s status using known algorithms

Once verified, the transaction is combined with other transactions to create a new block of data for the ledger The new block is then added to the existing blockchain in a way that is permanent and unalterable The transaction is complete

Blockchain was developed in 2008 to support the digital “cryptocurrency”, Bitcoin. It has since become clear that the technology has applications across a wide range of processes and transactions. At the heart of blockchain is a an innovative form of database: the distributed ledger. Each digital transaction is recorded

in the ledger in an immutable encrypted form as a “block” of data, and the ledger is distributed across thousands or even millions of computers in a network of “nodes”. For each individual record to be accepted as valid, more than half the nodes must agree that it is the correct one. No centralised version of the

information exists, so it is impossible for a hacker to corrupt it without simultaneously taking control of an enormous number of systems. Change any part of the record by conducting a new transaction or even altering a letter of a document, and a new encrypted block of data is added to the chain, creating a permanent

imprint of the information in the ledger at that point in time. Because it is decentralised and distributed, blockchain offers the potential for transparent, incorruptible peer-to-peer digital transactions without the need for permission or validation from a third party, which could slow the process down.

Source: BlockGeeks

Need to node: how blockchain works

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Source: BlockGeeks

Blockchain

within the one data repository, you stand a chance of shifting the culture to a much less litigious and much more collaborative one.” Marcus Granadeiro MRICS, a director at Brazilian construction management firm Construtivo in São Paulo, has already begun to record all of the information relating to the construction process on certain projects on a blockchain-based application: “With blockchain you can take a picture of the evolution of the contract at any moment. Every change is reproduced on the system from the beginning of the work to the end. There have been problems with scandals in the construction industry in Brazil, so there is a market for more compliance and consistent information.” In the Netherlands, the City of Rotterdam, Cambridge Innovation Center (CIC) and Deloitte are developing the first real estate blockchain application to record lease agreements at CIC’s Dutch business incubator. Leases are recorded digitally on a blockchain platform, which also monitors rental payments so that the financial performance of the building and its tenants can be documented over time. “Lease agreements are one of the main drivers for the value of real estate,” says Jan-Willem Santing MRICS, manager, real estate and partnerships at Deloitte in Utrecht. “With this system, if you sell or refinance your property you can save a lot of time because you can instantly see whether the parties do what they have agreed upon, and you can make better-informed decisions.”

ooking to the future, blockchain could revolutionise the real estate investment market. Some property developers have already begun to accept bitcoin in payment, although the volatility of cryptocurrencies has deterred some investors. Meanwhile the possibilities arising from tokenisation have already begun to be explored, as realestate-backed “initial coin offerings” (ICOs) invite investors to buy digital tokens that represent a share in properties. “Real estate is an illiquid asset and that is what we think we can solve with blockchain,” says Ragnar Lifthrasir, the California-based president of the International Blockchain Real Estate Association. “What people are doing with ICOs is trying to represent property assets as a token. You trade the token to trade the asset and you can divide

(NEW.QUOTE)“ }= WE ARE TAKING A PAPERBASED PROCESS THAT TAKES THREE MONTHS AND CREATING A DIGITAL PROCESS THAT CAN BRING IT DOWN TO LESS THAN A DAY.+0’)

HENRIK HJELTE Chromaway

a property represented with a blockchain token into pieces. That is the long-term future for property and blockchain, but it has to be well designed and thought out.” To date, most big institutional investors have considered ICOs to be too risky. Thomas Herr, head of digital innovation for EMEA at CBRE in Berlin, believes that the industry is likely to adopt blockchain at a measured pace. “One school of thought says that blockchain will change real estate within the next three to five years. I belong to another, which says there will be a longer period of introduction of 10 to 20 years. There will be a smooth integration of this technology in certain applications that are not as crucial as property transfer, then when we are more used to it we will use it for more complicated transactions and acceptance will grow.” Disintermediation – cutting out the middleman – is pivotal to the disruption that blockchain will wreak. As the property industry’s skilled intermediaries, surveyors could be forgiven for asking what that will mean for their career prospects.

“Yes, people in the property industry are middlemen and there will be a slow movement away from them, but they can leverage their knowledge to help tech entrepreneurs come up with the best applications. They should educate themselves about blockchain and start playing around with bitcoin, getting some hands-on experience,” advises Lifthrasir. “Lawyers and bankers should probably be more worried about this than surveyors,” adds Parker. “Blockchain won’t reduce the need for a surveyor to confirm the structural integrity or accuracy of the floor area, and I don’t believe it will affect the way we go about the negotiating leases.” The technology is still in its infancy, and hurdles remain to be overcome, not least the carbon consequences of the vast amount of energy consumed by the server farms needed to maintain blockchains. It is as difficult to predict exactly what forces blockchain will unleash today as it was to foresee the impact of the internet in the early 1990s, but the results could be almost as revolutionary. n

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R WO

Y ON

IVE

ILL

As emerging technologies converge with urban planning, a revolution of automated, on-demand and ownerless transport beckons. But is the concept of an intelligent city network a deliverable reality, or just sci-fi fantasy?

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Smart cities

he return of Blade Runner to cinemas last year provided us with a timely reminder of the world created in the first film, set in the Los Angeles of 2019. In truth, director Ridley Scott’s original vision is now some distance from the aspirations of today’s city planners. An emerging world of smart cities – the convergence between technology and urban planning – is already opening up massive opportunities to rethink the way that we live, work and play. But the film’s predictions for flying cars, synthetic human-like robots, space colonisation and artificial intelligence have turned out to be – for the most part – wide of the mark. Yet, according to Siemens senior vicepresident Steffen Endler, Blade Runner did, if nothing else, correctly anticipate today’s world of rapid urbanisation, rising population, climate change and the birth of the technology-supported smart city. The way we live our lives is unavoidably set for disruption. “Creating the liveable city takes four components to make it happen effectively,” explains Endler, who heads Siemens’ Digitalization Hub in Singapore.

“It takes thoughtful designs and plans, political will and societal support, technology that is fit for purpose, and good governance and collaboration to sustain the plan.” And the glue that holds this smart vision together is the transport networks that enable the new landscape to be traversed. We are, Endler points out, already on this development journey, beyond a so-called Infrastructure 1.0 of dumb brick and steel, and moving through the semi-automated Infrastructure 2.0. Ahead of us lies the intelligent Infrastructure 3.0 of driverless trains, fully automated buildings and smart grids managing loads, storage and generation, before we reach Infrastructure 4.0 – the fully integrated, intelligent and adaptive smart city infrastructure that is able to provide demand-responsive city services and incident management. It is, without question, a very attractive prospect, and one that is already exciting city leaders, infrastructure designers and transport planners. The question is: can it be delivered, or are we simply heading off towards a new Hollywood fantasy? “Look at the world around us and you will already see the evidence of the smart transport network in action: paperless e-ticketing on transport systems, sensors built into highways, drive assistance systems in cars, intelligent traffic lights and traffic management systems and train automation,” explains Endler. “Our road transport will inevitably follow the same pattern of technical progress of all past machines: we motorise, we electrify and we automate.” Being able to construct a smart city from the ground up is a rare privilege but one that Qatar is already embracing with its $45bn Lusail City. Work started on the 38 km2 city in 2008, in preparation for the 2022 FIFA World Cup for which Qatar is – somewhat controversially – the host. It is the largest development ever planned in Qatar and a key real estate plank in the National Vision 2030, which sets out to invest in and strengthen the national economy, but also to balance growth with environmental protection and sustainable development.

As such, developer Qatari Diar has set out stringent international design standards and embarked on a programme of detailed planning that it hopes will ensure that Lusail embraces the latest smart city technologies and builds in the flexibility to accommodate future innovations. Once it is completed in 2020, Lusail is expected to be home to 200,000 residents, with another 170,000 workers travelling in each day. Its 19 city districts will include residential, commercial and entertainment sectors, schools, mosques and medical facilities. Two Foster & Partners-designed towers will act as landmarks in the new financial district. A comprehensive transport network underpins its ambitious smart city plans in a way that is only really possible when you plan, design and construct a city from new, according to Eugene Seah MRICS, senior director, special projects, in the Group CEO Office of Surbana Jurong, the Singapore government’s infrastructure consultant. “Lusail is an example of a project starting in the right direction and with effective investment into the smart city,” he explains. “The project planners have looked at the end state and then started planning from the onset of the project.” At the heart of Lusail’s transport system is a low-energy, light-rail transit network connecting the city’s districts with four underground and overground lines, 36 stations and 38.5 km of track. Eventually, this will link up to future intercity rail services. But it is not all about trains. Cars will still be a significant element in the transport system, so interconnected underground car parks will support a carefully planned road system designed to limit congestion »

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in the city. A devoted bicycle and pedestrian network, with water taxis taking advantage of a canal network, will also relieve pressure on the road- and rail-based public transport. Seah points to other global cities, in particular the more developed metropolises of Asia such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai, which have been leading the charge when it comes to developing smart cities and transport networks, using technologies such as the internet of things (IoT), sensors and data analytics. “Getting these correct would mean better systems for maintainability and predictability for instance, moving large quantities of people, safely, efficiently and conveniently,” he says. “The ultimate aim is to improve the commuters’ quality of life.”

aving spent much of the last two years travelling around the developed and developing world, RICS pastPresident and CBRE partner Amanda Clack FRICS agrees that projects such as Lusail City are accelerating the development of smart city transport networks. “The great

thing with experimental or new cities like Lusail is that they can develop from a blank canvas and, as such, help develop and push on technologies and concepts covered elsewhere,” she says. “Lusail is fascinating, as much of the initial seven years of development was focused on installing the subterranean infrastructure to service the future city above ground. This has created a range of plug-and-play development opportunities that push the city to a different level.” And, she adds, while they may seem like expensive, one-off exercises, projects such as Lusail are vital to push the boundaries of what is possible. Other cities also now leading the way include Shenzhen and Tianjin in China, Songdo in South Korea, Brasilia in Brazil, plus Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai. “We need these examples to help bring new thinking to developed or developing cities around the world,” says Clack. “The way people use transport is likely to become more on demand, with less reliance on car or personal transport ownership. This will

IMAGE DORSCH GRUPPE

PLUG AND PLAY Qatar’s state-backed development company, Qatari Diar, is spending $45bn turning 38 km2 of desert and shorefront into Lusail City. Key to its success as a smart city is the infrastructure that is being built in to service future development. Light-rail lines, dedicated walking and cycling networks and water taxis are being created to service an anticipated 200,000 residents and 170,000 commuters.

place increased pressure on public and private services to meet this demand on time, and to provide data and data networks to help people make informed decisions on transport modes in the moment. People are requiring more personal data networks that can travel with them to provide an immediacy of information on the go.” Amy Child, associate transport and urban planner with Arup in Melbourne, agrees that creating smart networks is very much about engaging with people and, critically, embracing the ways that we are all now living our lives.“Digital technology and the ubiquitous smartphone means that we are now all very much geared around the user experience across all sectors and services,” explains Child. “The rise of on-demand, individualised services such as Netflix, Apple music and Airbnb have demonstrated the power of customer-focused business models, and this is now rapidly transferring to the transportation space.” Personalisation of transport means a future beyond simply providing static infrastructure. Customers now want a personalised service whether they are using public or individual personal transport. That means the traditional mass transit business models such as heavy rail, based on big infrastructure investment and governed by timetables and levels of services are no longer the only solution in town. On-demand, digitally enabled transport systems, which can be more agile and responsive to meet customer need, will fill the gaps where demand exceeds supply, or where no supply currently exists. Singapore’s Beeline bus service is a great example of this new wave of thinking. The crowd-sourced private bus service was set up in 2015 and now has 130 routes run by seven private bus operators, with 19,000 active monthly bookings. The concept is simple – the public suggests a route, Beeline analyses the crowd-sourced data

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IMAGE DORSCH GRUPPE

Smart cities

to identify whether the route is viable and, if so, asks private operators to bid to run it. Such services are part of the new sharing economy which, according to PwC, was thought to be worth $15bn a year at the time its report, The Sharing Economy, was published in 2015, but could rise to £335bn by 2025. And transport could potentially be the biggest sector of this market. Swedish automotive start-up Unity will this month launch its prototype for a new purpose-built lightweight electric vehicle designed specifically to integrate with this emerging digital-platform-based economy, either driver controlled or autonomously. But the sky is literally the limit for transport options backed by such platforms. Dubai’s Roads and Transportation Agency, for example, is pressing ahead with plans for an autonomous passenger drone network, while Israeli firm Urban Aeronautics says its military-designed passenger drone could be in civilian use by 2020. Back in the present, ride-hailing app Uber now operates in more than 600 cities around the world, and bike-sharing schemes are being taken to the next level by “dockless” operators such as Mobike and Ofo, which have embarked on aggressive expansion campaigns beyond their Asian bases.

espite this personal transport revolution, smarter and more efficient mass public transport solutions will remain core to serving ever-growing city populations, says Alistair Gollop, Mott MacDonald’s UK-based transport technology engineering lead. “The need for efficient transport modes will inevitably result in the requirement for mass public transport to offer a reliable and comfortable means to travel,” he explains. “There simply will not be the capacity to handle the huge daily commuter influx that our cities need to cope with, by using individual vehicles for each person.” However, he adds: “Supporting that tidal flow of workers will also require a mix of transport modes to get people to the transit hubs, and for shopping, school and leisure trips. Although the use of privately owned vehicles is bound to continue for some time, alternative mixes of sustainable modes such as walking and cycling will increase.” This mix, says Gollop, will include the emergence of Mobility as a Service – or Maas for short. It is a key phrase that will soon permeate our lives in the way that smartphones have over the last decade.

Essentially, it is the integration of transport – a single monthly charge to cover and plan all your travel needs across trains, buses, trams, taxis, bikes and hire cars without the need to buy or book a ticket. Already operating in Helsinki, pioneering Finnish operator Maas Global is now rolling out its Whim app and services in the UK across the West Midlands. Its goal is to make it unnecessary for any city resident to own a private car by 2025 (box, below). Without question, technology will create significant change to the way that smart cities of the future are planned and built, with improved capacity freeing up land for public transit, walking, cycling and housing. City transport will become cleaner, more rapid and also more autonomous – with

many even predicting that development of this technology means the next generation of children will have no requirement to even take a driving test. “The reality of hyperloop, drones, fewer cars on our streets and electric vehicles will become the norm,”explains Clack.“We need cities such as Lusail to push the boundaries.” On this basis, Blade Runner’s dystopian city vision looks even less likely as a reality.  READ RICS’ RESEARCH REPORT on smart cities and big data at rics.org/smartcities

All-in-one travel solution hopes to reach critical Maas Maas (Mobility as a Service) aims to improve transport efficiency and reduce the need for car ownership. This should not only benefit residents’ quality of life by cutting congestion and improving air quality, but also increase productivity for businesses and transform the urban environment as road space requirement is reduced. Maas Global’s service, and its Whim app, is a new ticketless travel concept that combines different transport options into a single mobile service, and intends to obviate the need to own a car by 2025. Services are currently operating in Helsinki in Finland and are being rolled out across the West Midlands in the UK. The aim is to package and sell transport journeys as a single monthly purchase for all the services people need, regardless of mode. The premise is that the average car owner spends much more each month on running costs than they think, and make use of their vehicle far less than they care to admit. The money spent by households on depreciation, fuel, insurance and maintenance could instead, says Maas Global, buy substantial bus, train, taxi or car-hire services. The Whim app helps customers find and plan the most effective and efficient route and mode. For a monthly fee, Helsinki residents buy access to all the city’s public transport services and collect credits to use on a set number of taxi rides each month, or on days driving rental cars. In the West Midlands the Whim app includes Gett taxis, National Express buses and Midland Metro trams, and city bikes and rental cars will soon be added. Currently both pay-per-ride and monthly subscription services are available.

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WORDS MATT BURGESS

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How confident can you be that a space will protect you when disaster hits? A look at building codes in some of the most atrisk locations reveals worrying fault lines

IMAGE FONDO HEXA, S.A. DE C.V.

an Francisco was largely destroyed at 5:12 am on 18 April 1906. Rupturing 296 miles of the San Andreas fault, the 8.3 magnitude earthquake left a trail of devastation in its wake. Official statistics estimate that up to 3,000 people were killed by the quake, 225,000 people were made homeless, and 28,000 buildings were ruined. Photos show the City Hall in pieces, tram tracks upturned and fire ravaging its way through the remaining structures. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the Californian quake and subsequent fires caused $400m of damage – around $10bn in today’s valuation. While the earthquake of 1906 has long been surpassed in power – a 1960 quake in Chile measured 9.5 – it taught unprepared city planners and seismologists about the catastrophic power the Earth possesses. It is predicted that San Francisco will suffer from another 1906-scale earthquake within the next 30 years but, despite advances in technology, it is not possible to predict when. Recent earthquake research has focused on detecting when one has occurred to prepare people for its impact. Two types of seismic waves are created: primary (P-waves) and secondary (S-waves). P-waves travel at about 7km per second and make the rocks around them vibrate with the direction of movement. S-waves move at slower speeds but in a shearing motion that makes rocks vibrate at a right angle, causing surface damage.

GIVEN SOME LATITUDE

Mexico City’s tallest building, the Torre Reforma, stands at 246m high. Anticipating great seismic activity, the engineer, Arup, added a series of gaps in its facade to allow the walls to flex without fracturing. It made it through the 7.1 magnitude earthquake that hit the city in September 2017 unscathed, and Arup believes it will withstand all seismic activity in the region for the next 2,500 years

Earthquake early warning systems (EWS) are able to operate using the differences in wave type. “We try to detect the earthquake on the P-wave and send out a warning before the more damaging S-waves arrive,” explains Angela Chung, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California’s Berkeley Seismological Laboratory. Chung is working on the algorithm at the heart of the state’s new EWS, ShakeAlert. Within the system, sensors in at least four monitoring stations have to detect a P-wave before a notification is sent out, Chung says. The

P-wave information allows the system to automatically estimate the location and magnitude of the earthquake. It is then able to project the amount of ground shaking there will be.“Knowing that shaking is about to occur means people can take precautionary action in those few seconds,” she adds. It is just enough time for people to drop to the floor, find cover, hold on to a stable item or move away from glass windows. These precious seconds allow time to ensure cars do not enter tunnels or start crossing bridges, and a train driver to apply the brakes. »

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Resilience

Earthquake protection has been built into Japanese textile firm Komatsu Seiren’s laboratory in Nomi. When the building leans in one direction under seismic activity, the ropes on the other side pull it upright

be able to withstand the theoretical strongest earthquake in its region. Buildings are not expected to be damage free – this is virtually impossible – but should remain standing. Flavia De Luca, a lecturer from the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Bristol, argues it is possible to make an earthquake-resistant building out of any material – reinforced concrete, timber, steel, masonry and more – if the proper procedures are followed.“The critical aspect is that in many cases there are codes, there are proper rules to build up structures that are earthquake resistant, but the execution and the building practice is poor or not properly controlled. This problem affects many developing and developed countries,” she explains. Following the 2017 Mexico earthquake, residents complained that companies may not have followed the regulations when building their apartments – more than 3,000 buildings collapsed.

passing overhead.“With the increasing impact of global warming on extreme natural hazards, EWSs are increasingly required to cater for multiple hazards or even cascading hazards [or chain reactions],”explains Carina Fearnley, a lecturer in science and technology studies at University College London. “Even 30-50 seconds’ warning can make a huge difference, but ultimately, when it comes to earthquakes, it is about having good building codes, having plans in place and being prepared, and using any EWS to help reduce the death toll and damage as much as possible,” Fearnley adds. Despite Mexico’s EWS, more than 300 people died during the colossal September 2017 earthquake. The country has a strong series of seismic building codes in place, which implement laws designed to harden constructions to potential earthquakes. Dramatic videos from the scene of September’s earthquake show buildings collapsing as the earth beneath them shook. “The biggest challenge in earthquake engineering is the vulnerability of old building stock that does not meet current codes and standards,”says Ziggy Lubkowski, EMEA seismic business and skills leader at engineering firm Arup. Like Mexico, many of the world’s countries have their own construction standards and building codes when it comes to seismic resilience. Seismic codes vary in their requirements, but in most cases they require a building to

s well as the potential risk of not being followed by construction companies and architects, earthquake building regulations can take a long time to filter through to the structures in a city. “One of the most difficult problems is that even if we revise our building code, it may only be effective tens of years later, because most existing buildings are designed according to the previous code,” argues Koichi Kusunoki, associate professor at the University of Tokyo’s Earthquake Research Institute. Kusunoki adds that the screening of a building’s seismic capacity allows it to be analysed against codes and then retrofitted if it is needed. The 53-storey Shinjuku Nomura Building in Tokyo, which was completed in 1978, has been one recipient of Japan’s retrofitting. In 2015, the building had two mass dampers installed on its 52nd and 53rd floors. These dampers are essentially giant 700 tonne weights, designed to move in the opposite direction to vibrations from earthquakes. The effect of this is to cancel out the building’s movement, with the dampers absorbing an earthquake’s seismic energy. The Japanese government claims that if the 9.1 magnitude earthquake of 2011 was repeated, it is expected that the Shinjuku Nomura Building would now soak up 20%-25% of the vibrations, and the duration of the period in which the building moves would be reduced by 50%. The impact that an earthquake has on developing nations can be particularly catastrophic. The 7.3 magnitude quake that

The plan is for ShakeAlert to eventually be able to send notifications of upcoming seismic activity to the mobile phones of users. Current technological limitations in sending these to millions of devices at once mean the system is likely to use TV and radio to spread the message initially. California’s EWS remains in a beta stage of testing at the moment, but two other countries, Mexico and Japan, already have working systems. Mexico City’s SASMEX alert system is one of the world’s oldest EWSs; it started working in 1991, six years after a devastating earthquake hit the region. There is a smartphone app but most alerts are issued through speakers in public buildings and parks. The alert does not say how strong an earthquake is but is able to detect seismic activity happening 200 miles away on the Pacific coast. The distance the disruptive S-waves have to travel meant that during the September 2017 7.1 magnitude earthquake that hit the country, those in the capital had 60-90 seconds to prepare for impact.

apan’s nationwide alert system, J-Alert, is perhaps the world’s most advanced and extensive EWS. It uses loudspeakers, TV and radio broadcasts, mobile phone networks and email to disseminate warnings across the country. It has also helped to provide tsunami warnings and has recently been used to inform citizens of North Korean ballistic missile test flights

IMAGE TAKUMI OTA; GETTY

STRETCHING CREDIBILITY

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Resilience

WHAT YOU NEED AFTER AN WHAT EARTHQUAKE IS FOR ALL THE CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TO CONTINUE IN OPERATION. THAT MEANS HOSPITALS, FIRE FIRE BRIGADES, BRIGADES, BRIDGES BRIDGES AND AND WATER WATER SUPPLIES SUPPLIES CHRISTIAN MÁLAGA-CHUQUITAYPE Imperial College, London

shook the Iran-Iraq border last November was 2017’s deadliest, claiming more than 600 lives. In the last decade, Haiti, Nepal and the Philippines have been hit by greater than 7.0 magnitude earthquakes. Port-au-Prince, Kathmandu and Bohol were largely destroyed and thousands of people killed or displaced. “In Nepal, the preparedness and resilience was relatively low when the earthquake hit in 2015,” explains Rabindra Singh, project manager at international development charity Practical Action.“There were no systematic plans and strategic interventions from government. Whatever little policies it had were not fully enforced.”

he governments of developing nations need to design practical plans that can increase preparedness for earthquakes, Singh argues. “Capable institutions at all levels of government need to carry out the strategies and implement the plans.” Ake Fagereng, a seismic researcher from the University of Cardiff’s School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, agrees: “If we can improve the local knowledge of seismicity and potential earthquake hazard, and train some local earth scientists to further improve on our models, we are doing well.” Along with researchers from the University of Bristol, Fagereng is completing the PREPARE project in east Africa to help countries in the region with their readiness for potential earthquakes. “The region has a

challenge where magnitude seven or greater earthquakes are possible, but have not occurred in living memory,” says Fagereng. “Similar to Haiti, there is therefore little consideration of earthquake risk.” The project, which is due to run until 2020, is building seismic-hazard-risk maps and design guides with governments and academics in the region. “What’s needed after an earthquake is for all the critical infrastructure to continue so emergencies are attended,” says Christian Málaga-Chuquitaype, structural engineering lecturer at Imperial College, London. “That means hospitals, fire brigades, key bridges, water supplies, and more.” These can be hard to implement in regions where corruption lurks high up in the political chain and resources are not appropriately distributed. “Sometimes very short-sighted plans of reconstruction after earthquake events are implemented with only political gains in view, and golden opportunities to build properly adequate sites are missed,”MálagaChuquitaype adds.“Even worse, other times, reconstruction help from the government never arrives and entire communities are left to rebuild their lives as they can.” Protecting cities and populations from earthquakes is a complex challenge. Experts from the worlds of politics, technology, construction and design are required to work together and think in the long term to keep our built environments standing. 

Wellington plans 100 years ahead to protect its citizens New Zealand’s capital released its resilience strategy in March 2017. It is designed to strengthen responses to natural disasters, including earthquakes and climate change. Even as the proposal was being drawn up, the city was damaged by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake. Among the plans are three key areas for response to seismic activity. Recovery The city should be planning for a “postshock” Wellington and be ready to move into action if an earthquake occurs. Officials say the city should be open about who is expected to do what, to help them be held accountable for their actions. Small businesses Planners say small and medium businesses are crucial to Wellington’s success. They should have more support to quickly resume working after a disaster. “Generally, corporates can take care of themselves”, the planning document says. Protecting homes Plans have yet to be finalised, but it is proposed that people will be told to strengthen their chimneys, joists and verandahs and install emergency water storage.

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CRACKER JAKARTA TRANSFER OF CAPITAL Jakarta (1) is overcrowded and severely congested. There has been talk of moving the seat of government for decades but a suitable site has yet to be confirmed RAPID RELIEF Part-funded by Japanese investment, the 23.3km Mass Rapid Transit (2) is designed to relieve the traffic deadlock that can bring areas of central Jakarta to a standstill

Office supply in the Indonesian capital is threatening to outstrip demand, but as one dominant sector declines, another emerges. Brendon Hooper reports

EMERGING RELATIVELY UNSCATHED FROM THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, A SUBSEQUENT construction boom in Indonesia has resulted in unprecedented volumes of supply in Jakarta’s office market. Office volumes reached a record level in 2016, and JLL reports that completions of around 785,000 m2 (8.45m ft2) by the end of 2017 will fulfill roughly half of the 1.6m m2 (17.2m ft2) expected to be delivered up to 2021. Once dominant in the office market, over the past two years, oil, gas and mining firms have been rapidly downsizing their office operations, due to a commodities downturn. Increasingly, demand is now coming from firms in Indonesia’s booming tech sector. “Jakarta is an attractive place to do business,” says Elliot Hawkins MRICS, associate director at markets at JLL Indonesia. “The country has more than 5% GDP growth per year, there is a young population with a median age under 30, and Indonesia’s e-commerce market is on track to being one of the largest in Asia.” According to JLL, e-commerce firms are among the most active industries in Jakarta’s central business district (CBD), with growing numbers of online travel booking firms, “fintech” payment companies and gaming start-ups requiring space. In August 2017, Facebook also opened a large, permanent office in the city. “The tech sector is still in its infancy here so the potential is huge,” says James Taylor, head of research at JLL Indonesia. But, with occupancy falling, does this mean tech firms will pick up the slack in the office market? “Only to an extent. We don’t expect these firms to take up all of the 1.6m m2 that’s in the CBD pipeline. But if Jakarta catches up with other markets in Asia-Pacific, technology occupiers could lease an additional 750,000 m2 [8m ft2] of space by 2021, which is not unthinkable given that demand from tech firms represented around 15% of total market demand over the past year,”explains

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Briefing

TECHS IN THE CITY (from top) Block71 helps start-ups to network; Facebook’s new offices – Indonesia is an important market for the company; Sinarmas’ digital hub, due to complete in 2021, has hopes of becoming the Indonesian Silicon Valley

BY NUMBERS HIGH ON SUPPLY Office supply levels have grown steadily over the past four years and, while this led to an 8.2% drop in average asking rents for grade A space in Jakarta’s CBD between 2016 and 2017, outside the CBD they have risen by 8.6%

Central business district 295,000 m2

Non-central business district 95,000 m2

Meanwhile, in Bumi Serpong Damai in the Greater Jakarta region, developer Sinarmas Land is constructing a $525m digital hub, which “aims to connect start-ups, technology leaders and digital communities” on completion of its first phase in 2019. The scheme has already attracted tech firms such as Apple, Huawei and IT services firm Dimension Data to consider taking space. However, Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country, and Jakarta is notorious for its traffic-clogged streets. Therefore, improving public transport will be key for attracting workers. “The city desperately needs to improve its infrastructure to get people moving, because with the current growth in vehicles in the city, we will not have any movement on the road in 2019,” says Natalia Pujiyanti MRICS, director at Arcadis Jakarta. The completion of phase one of Jakarta’s Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) programme in March 2019 should begin to alleviate some of the city’s traffic gridlock. According to CBRE, the real estate sector is also expected to be a significant beneficiary, with land prices along the new MRT lines and in close proximity to stations already rising significantly. So change is happening quickly. Furthermore, over the next few

260,000 m2 335,000 m2

450,000 m2 320,000 m2

206,000 m2

165,000 m2

30,000 m2

2014 2013 2015 2016

Sources: JLL; Colliers, 2017

IMAGES ISTOCK; GETTY; SINAR MAS LAND INFOGRAPHIC IAN DUTNALL

785,000 m2

Taylor. As well as a huge shift in demand from oil, gas and mining sector operators to e-commerce and tech sectors, many occupiers are taking advantage of excess supply of new office space to upgrade from older properties. “This is a challenge for existing landlords,” says Hawkins, “but it’s an opportunity for occupiers as rents continue to decline.” Willson Kalip MRICS, country head at Knight Frank Indonesia, explains that for an increasing number of e-commerce technology companies entering Jakarta, efficiency – in terms of occupancy costs, strategic location, excellent supporting facilities and proximity to public transportation – is paramount. “Many are also looking outside the CBD at present, particularly new and young start-up companies,” he says. Young companies want informal and flexible office concepts too, such as co-working spaces equipped with a super-high-speed internet access, where young tech professionals can exchange ideas, collaborate and grow. Co-working is a relatively new idea in the country, and although it is more associated with “shop house” type buildings or grade B and C offices, JLL says this is beginning to change as international co-working firms increasingly explore options in the new-build market. Among the more recent examples of high-quality co-working developments is the Salim Group’s partnership with Singapore’s National University on Block71, an incubator and co-working space in Kuningan, South Jakarta.

2017

years, Jakarta’s office market will have to prepare for another major upheaval – losing its capital city status. In July 2017, the government announced a plan to relocate Indonesia’s capital away from Jakarta, with preparations beginning this year. Although the idea has been in gestation for several decades, if implemented, it will have a seismic impact on the real estate sector, both in Jakarta and in the location of the new capital. Nevertheless, it will still take at least three to four years to construct the basic infrastructure and government buildings at the new capital, which has yet to be officially announced.“Investors, developers and occupiers should stay attuned to developments relating to the relocation,” advises Jonathan Hills, director of Asia-Pacific research at CBRE, “particularly as land prices are likely to surge dramatically within a short period of time.” 

REFERENCE POINT REPORTS AND RESOURCES Indonesia Property Investment Guide 2017, Knight Frank Steering foreign investors through property, legal and tax regulations. bit.ly/KFIndo17 Jakarta Property Market Review Q2 2017, JLL Research report on the economy, retail and property market. bit.ly/JLLJakarta17 Jakarta Post News and views from the city’s business community. thejakartapost.com

Indonesia ViewPoint Relocation of Capital, CBRE The implications of the mooted relocation of the capital city (registration required). bit.ly/CBREIndoview Doing Business in Jakarta, The World Bank Guides for starting a business, construction permits or registering property. bit.ly/Jakartabiz

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“THE PRACTICAL NATURE OF THE COURSE GAVE ME TOOLS I COULD TRANSFER INTO MY WORK FOR THE BENEFIT OF MY CLIENTS” YVES DU BOIS MRICS MBMpl

BIM: GETTING IT RIGHT FROM THE START Quantity surveyors are ideal candidates to demonstrate to their clients the advantages of the technology, says Yves Du Bois MRICS

overnments and property owners around the world are increasingly insisting on using building information modelling (BIM) platforms to deliver construction projects. This, along with the lightning speed of software innovation, the advances in hardware and the increasing reliance on data in asset management, makes it clear that the use of BIM platforms will become the industry standard. Australia and New Zealand are among the world regions to have taken the lead on adopting BIM. However, most of the construction industry is only using it in its most basic form. The success of any BIM environment project ultimately depends on the ability of the project team to get it right from the start. The management of this process is of vital importance and getting the right stakeholders in the room early is essential. The strategy of a BIM process is to determine the future outcome at the early stages of the project, something that historically has not been the case. This process will primarily be driven by the client and core consultants in the creation of the employer’s information requirements (EIR). The EIR will set the stage for determining detailed client requirements, consultant scopes, appointment schedules, platforms, standards, supply chain BIM abilities and, most importantly, the expectations and ongoing use of the data created during the planning and construction stages.

Quantity surveyors are often one of the core consultants involved in the construction process. They have extensive experience of the process from inception through to the operation and management of the asset. In-depth knowledge of the structure and effect of the EIR and BIM execution plan is essential to effectively advise and assist clients in formulating a strategic brief and long-term performance objectives. Quantity surveyors are ideally placed to manage and inform the initial phases of the BIM lifecycle, and to illustrate the value to clients of delivering construction projects via BIM. The time, effort and financial commitment required in getting it right from the start will deliver huge cost benefits for the duration of an asset’s life. n YVES DU BOIS MRICS is the director of multidisciplinary practice MBMpl, Australia

THE CERTIFICATE IN BUILDING INFORMATION MODELLING PROJECT MANAGEMENT distance-learning course is available to RICS professionals in Australia and New Zealand. The online course covers the entire BIM project life-cycle and provides you with detailed knowledge and skills required to manage each step of a project. You will learn to manage information processes, standards, and how to engage the right stakeholders. Gain 200 hours of formal CPD and take part in interactive, live tutor-led sessions. For more information, visit rics.org/BIMoceania.

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Careers / Business / Legal / Training

Foundations CAREERS The first step in having the confidence to call out sexual harassment in the workplace is recognising when it occurs

BEING HARASSED?

As any woman who has attended the annual Mipim property event in Cannes is acutely aware, the sexual harassment scandal that exploded late last year is not just confined to politicians and Hollywood types. The real estate sector – male dominated and still, in parts, determinedly old fashioned – has its own problems. But with awkward conversations now swirling around our workplaces, one question pervades: how do you know if “banter” has tipped over into harassment territory? For many, the effect of the scandal has been the surprising discovery that even now, in the 21st century, harassment takes place in almost all workplaces. But most women already knew: research published by the UK’s Trades Union Congress last year found that 52% have experienced some form of sexual harassment at work. To distinguish between innocent exchanges and genuine harassment, the first step is to look at how it is defined, says Amanda Okill, an employment law specialist at Furley Page Solicitors in Kent. As an example, the UK Equality Act 2010 describes harassment as “conduct from a colleague that has the purpose or effect of creating an intimidating, hostile and degrading environment for the recipient”. “It could be that the perpetrator thinks it is just a laugh, but if it has the effect of creating an intimidating and degrading environment, then it is harassment,” she says. Power is part of the equation, adds Sally French, a counsellor and a member of the Counselling Directory. In many cases, people in senior positions use their power

Confirm it Talk to someone at work you trust to see if they’ve noticed anything. Confront them The offender will most likely be unaware they are making you feel uncomfortable. If you feel confident enough, a quiet word should suffice. Keep a diary Write down each time it happens, noting who was present. Then, when you raise a complaint, you will have a complete list of events, and witnesses. Three-month rule If you choose to pursue the legal route, be aware tribunal action must be taken within three months from when you first complained about the act.

to manipulate someone lower down the order. “A lot of true sexual harassment is actually the opposite of flirting,” she says. “It’s about power, position and privilege.” Okill agrees: “I had a case where a senior manager was sending [a younger employee] text messages. He was in his late 40s, she was 20. [The messages] were quite flirty, but because she didn’t want to lose her job, she felt she had to play along. When she didn’t reply, he’d send her a chaser saying ‘do you not like me?’.” Needless to say, when she finally reported his behaviour, he lost his job. Part of the difficulty in recognising and tackling harassment stems from historic societal norms, suggests French. “Women haven’t always been empowered to say: ‘I find that patronising’ or, ‘I don’t like it when you do that.’ I think we’re frightened of being told: ‘It’s only a joke’ or, ‘Where’s your sense of humour?’.” If there is any doubt, another point of view can help. Confiding in a colleague can help to confirm whether what is happening is fairly harmless, or something darker. More often than not, they will have noticed. Raising it with someone else can also help victims overcome the nagging doubt that they might be over-reacting, because a tribunal is unlikely to rule against behaviour most people would view as “a bit of fun”, Okill suggests. “The way a court tends to look at such behaviour is: what would a reasonable person perceive it as? “As soon as you make it known that you feel uncomfortable, and nothing is done, the perpetrators and the employer are in dangerous territory,” says Okill. “No one is saying you can’t have fun [in the workplace]. But when [comments] alienate a certain group of people, that’s not fun any more.”

ON RICSRECRUIT.COM Does your mouth keep getting you into trouble? Follow our advice on what not to say at work: rics.org/whatnottosay

WORDS EMMA HASLETT ILLUSTRATIONS MARINA MUUN PORTRAIT TUALA HJARNØ

ADVANCE WARNING SIGNS

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Foundations

TIMELINE

1999 O’Briens Valuers and Property Consultants, Melbourne, Australia 2002 Bachelor of Business (Property), RMIT, Melbourne

MY WAY

Paul J. Morice MRICS SENIOR DIRECTOR, CBRE, OSLO, NORWAY

2003 Qualifies as a certified practising valuer

THE PRESENT I’m currently the head of valuation and advisory service line across all asset classes in Norway, managing three professionals including a full-time research resource. I really enjoy working with new clients, which involves representing international investors on their acquisitions in Norway, offering commercial due diligence and buy-side support. Since 2013, I’ve also been part of the senior management team, finding new ways to grow the business.

2005 Valuation strategist, M3 Property, Melbourne 2006 Associate director, LMW, Melbourne 2009 Becomes an RICS member

THE BEGINNING Growing up in Melbourne, Australia, I was fascinated by my father’s job as a builder. It wouldn’t be allowed now, THE FUTURE but as a toddler I remember following him around on A lot of our time is being spent on some big construction sites, like a proper little apprentice. After valuation and advisory projects in the region leaving school, I became more attracted to the property side – we’re currently undertaking some 350 of the industry, so after getting a residential real estate valuations in Norway for a large corporate agent’s licence, I began working at O’Briens Valuers and client. Keeping up to date in this rapidly Property Consultants in Melbourne. In 2002, I studied for changing industry is extremely important to a Bachelor of Business (Property), and became an associate me, too, so I’m planning my next round of of the Australian Property Institute. A year later, I qualified continued professional development courses through RICS and CBRE. Hopefully, as a certified practising valuer. I can squeeze in a bit more globetrotting when I get the chance as well. THE BREAKTHROUGH In 2006 I took a role at LandMark White (now LMW), where rics.org/paulmorice I was promoted to associate director at the age of 25. However, the global financial crisis hit us hard. The company went from 30 professionals to just five in a matter of months – it made me realise the fragility of our industry. My wife is Norwegian, so I thought, why not see how it goes in Europe? A year after becoming chartered, in 2009, we moved to Norway. It was tough, but “The global financial crisis hit us hard. my RICS qualification played a significant role in getting a job at Atrium, a CBRE- We went from 30 professionals to five – it affiliated business in Oslo. made me realise the fragility of our industry”

2010 Moves to Oslo to work in valuation research at Atrium 2013 Joins the Atrium senior management team 2016 Atrium is fully acquired by CBRE

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LEADER OF THE PACKING

FIVE-POINT PRIMER

Among life’s most stressful events, moving house is regularly up there. So it is hardly surprising that few employees will ever look forward to an office move as well. Whatever the reasons behind the decision – whether it is to be closer to clients, or to facilitate expansion – one thing is certain: get an office move wrong, and managers could experience plenty of unwanted relocations of their own: staff leaving to take new jobs elsewhere. “Most office moves aren’t from one city to another, but somewhere else in the same conurbation, but you have to remember it’s still disruption,” says Simon Gammell, director of workplace relocations at Crown Worldwide.“Ten miles in a big city might as well be the other side of the country, and can add more than an hour to people’s journeys. We always say that if you’re going to affect the journey times of more than 25% of staff, then you’ve got to work with them early to talk about the bigger picture – why a move is happening, and the reason the business has had to do it.” For Gammell, it is the responsibility of managers to turn staff scepticism into excitement about a move; to talk up the fact it represents expansion and personal opportunity. The main problem, as Adrian Powell, director at UK workplace services firm Active, observes, is that “most moves are faits accomplis. They have to be done, so they’re rarely something

Set the tone Being positive about the benefits of the move means you’re more likely to bring staff along with you. Talk it over You can never have too much communication. Keep staff informed to prevent unhelpful rumours spreading. Get involved Allowing employees to have a say in the look and feel of the new space will galvanise support for the move. Work it out Use the relocation as an opportunity to reassess your working practices. Stop gap Covering staff’s travel costs is not a long-term solution.

PRIDE OF PLACE Firms can actually “capture” pre- and postmove sentiment with a range of tools – the very use of which should help to persuade staff that their views matter. Tim Oldman, CEO of workplace productivity consultant Leesman, offers businesses a benchmarking effectiveness tool that captures the more esoteric feelings staff have – like the “pride” they feel working for a business. “There’s a strong link between how workplaces ‘work’ for people and the level of pride they show,” he says. “But pride can also have the most variance, and this can be particularly brittle during a move. Conducting pre- and post analysis shows that companies are willing to listen. Bravery is required – not all views can be accommodated – but staff need to be able to say what’s working or not working about where they are, and where they will be next.”

WORDS PETER CRUSH IMAGE GETTY

BUSINESS Involve staff from the outset and help your office move progress smoothly

you can consult about from a location point of view”. That said, he still believes leaders can influence the outcome better. “Relocating is like making a stir-fry. At the moment it comes together it’s quick, but the only reason it happens this way is because you’ve prepared the veg in advance.” Preparing people, Powell adds, is all about communication: “A successful move often happens when people feel they’ve been informed. They may not like where they’re going initially, but as long as they can see the reasons, most will buy into it. The worst thing that can happen is for rumours to spread, so we say it’s essential you appoint ‘move champions’ – people charged with disseminating news and canvassing employee opinion. The one thing about an office move, is that failure isn’t an option, so you almost have to over-compensate communication.” Former DeVono director Adam Landau, founder of new advisory firm One One One in London, suggests adopting the Sun Tzu approach: keep your enemies close. “There will always be people who’ll moan, so bring them in and involve them,”he argues.“While the office location will have almost certainly been decided, there are plenty of fine details over which employees can – and should – get involved, such as the layout of the office, the furniture, the finish, the environment they want to work in. For these aspects it’s useful to appoint mini project teams. Bosses will soon find they get a buy-in that creates a positive, more galvanising effect. “Managers need to remember, it’s mostly fear of change, rather than the change itself, that people react against,” Landau adds. “Involving staff helps eradicate this.”

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Foundations

LEGAL 101

All agree, however, that although a move has to happen, it should not simply comprise picking up people’s desks and plonking them down somewhere else. “Good firms will recognise an office move is a valuable chance to take a holistic view of their entire working practices – such as their approach to flexible working, home working, and even job sharing,” says Landau. “Bolstering flexiworking is one very good way of appeasing those for whom getting to the office will now

“Relocating is like making a stir-fry. The moment it comes together is quick, but it only happens this way because you’ve prepared all the veg in advance” ADRIAN POWELL Active be harder. Giving faraway staff the option to work two days a week at home may be all that’s needed to get their buy-in.” Another way to appease staff is with travel support, such as paying extra public transport costs for a limited time. In extreme moves, firms could also offer relocation costs, or provide temporary housing for high-worth staff while they look for their own homes. Although help with transport is a good short-term benefit, most agree it has limited long-term value: “These sorts of perks have to end at some point, so firms are only really putting off the inevitable,” argues Gammell. “Most effort should be spent on engaging people’s hearts and minds. The biggest bang for your buck will always be from good communication and the more people are kept in the loop, the better.”

TOP OFFICE TIPS FROM RICS.ORG So you’ve found your new office, but before you move in, there are a few points worth considering, writes property consultant Dayle Bayliss FRICS. A new space shouldn’t just be about the number

of desks you need, it can be used to help change behaviours. For example, if your staff rely too much on emails to communicate, find a layout where it’s easy for staff to walk around and talk to each other. Be aware that any changes to your space could affect what makes your business a success. To read the full version of this article, go to rics.org/officelayout.

Bust-ups brewing after BIM boom JOSEPH CHUNG, partner, Deacons, Hong Kong The increasing popularity of BIM raises a legal issue over the ownership of BIM data. This came to a head last year when, in one of the first UK judgments over BIM, the Technology and Construction Court forced Mott Macdonald to give Trant Engineering access to design data. Britain’s Ministry of Defence hired Trant to construct a power station in the Falkland Islands. During the tender process, Trant subcontracted preliminary design work to MottMac, for which it used engineering project software ProjectWise so the design teams could share BIM data. MottMac sent a contract with the terms of payment, licensing Trant to use the designs once it received payment. But Trant didn’t respond to this, and didn’t sign the contract. The two companies then had a dispute about payment and the scope of the works. MottMac claimed there was no contract. Since its remaining invoices were unpaid, it suspended all work, and invoked its rights over the design data. The company revoked Trant’s access to ProjectWise. Trant then terminated MottMac’s participation, saying it had repudiated the contract, and then sought access to the design data. The court ruled that MottMac had to give Trant access to the designs so far. It concluded that there was effectively a contract, based on the documents sent to Trant, and how the two companies behaved. The court decided that damages weren’t sufficient

on such a large project, since they were capped at £1m ($1.4m). So it ruled Trant was entitled to the design data in the public ProjectWise database. Even if there was no contract, MottMac had already accepted payment for the work it had carried out. Who should control information in the common data environment? Denying access can bring a project to a standstill. But an employer might not have adequate technical resources to host the shared data so that it retains full control. One of the reasons companies are slow to use BIM is the potential time and cost, including training. What if the project team hosts the shared data, but with regular back-ups by the employer? Singapore’s Building & Construction Authority specifies that each author’s information is intended to be shared with all users throughout the course of the project. In the UK, the BIM Protocol specifies that the project team member that creates information has the rights, but grants a non-exclusive license to the employer. The New Engineering Contract 4 (NEC4), which is becoming increasingly popular in Hong Kong, has a clause covering BIM that says the client owns the information model. Whatever arrangement is used, it is essential that the contract contains clear terms regarding the use of intellectual property, and who should host and control its use. Data access should not become a bargaining chip in a dispute.

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CPD booster Related content from RICS

CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS: PRECONTRACT COST MANAGEMENT Julian Smith FRICS (above) presents new strategies to help you take a fresh approach to pre-contract estimates. rics.org/ constructionppcm ››CPD hours: 70 £495

DRAW ON YOUR EXPERIENCE PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT Learn how to provide your clients with the fullest picture possible before their project leaves the drawing board Platform builder The professional issues to be considered and addressed at the pre-contract stage of a construction project provide a solid platform to build on throughout its development, ensuring that the right decisions are made, at the right time, to suit the client’s needs. Strategic thinking Traditionally, a precontract procedure involves looking at all the options available and advising clients on the best approach to a project. What the latest RICS course on pre-contract cost management does is bring in a strategic and quantitative approach to making decisions about the various options available, to best suit the client’s needs and priorities. Self criticism Following any project, quantity surveyors should always reflect on how well they think they managed the precontract stage and consider if they could have provided better solutions for the client. Participants on the TRAINING: ON DEMAND course are encouraged The RICS Online Academy to apply critical analysis offers members a convenient techniques to two case way to further their training studies. This might be in a range of formats tailored the procurement options to suit their needs. Find out for a complex data more at rics.org/ola management centre 46

where a fast-track approach is deemed desirable, or it might involve a complex, multimillion-dollar development where risks are required to be identified and evaluated to provide a framework for the design team to consider and mitigate against. Supply teaching It is essential to evaluate the factors affecting construction costs to achieve value for money. The course also considers supply chain management and value management techniques to improve a project’s value for money, by maintaining or improving the project’s objectives and functional use for a reduced cost. Better together Typically, the distancelearning course includes 10-20 participants from around the world, who are encouraged to keep in touch and bounce ideas off each other through forums and quizzes, along with case studies, which are required to be submitted and evaluated by other peers in the group. Although the course content is mostly UK-orientated, global members should have no trouble applying the techniques to their own particular projects. JULIAN SMITH FRICS is a senior consultant at Stradia (stradia.co.uk) and leader of the RICS distance-learning course on pre-contract cost management (top, right)

CONTAMINATED LAND: FUNDAMENTALS Philip Wilbourn FRICS (above) helps you identify the legislation and Red Book requirements concerning contaminated land. rics. org/contaminatedland ››CPD hours: 1.5 £40

INTERNATIONAL VALUATION STANDARDS Alexander Aronsohn FRICS (above) on the new mandatory guidelines for harmonising valuation practice across the world. rics.org/international valuationstandards ››CPD hours: 1.5 £40

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Foundations

SURVEYED Is there a book, website or app you couldn’t be without? Email editor@ricsmodus.com

ALSO THIS ISSUE

HARDWARE

WALL SEEING Before cutting or drilling into concrete walls or floors, it is always critically important to locate rebars, voids, post-tension cables, cavities, conduits, and any other objects buried in the structure, to avoid costly and potentially dangerous accidents. One of several high-tech, groundpenetrating radars on the market, IDS GeoRadar’s C-thrue system helps construction professionals accurately “see through” concrete structures, prior to building work. It is lightweight and portable, making it suitable for a wide range of applications. While hand-scanning

a structure, you can immediately see what lies behind it in a realtime, 3D image display. “C-thrue eliminates the need for manual, error-prone paper grids, and further increases data accuracy. As a result, daily surveys become easier and more productive,” says IDS GeoRadar business manager Paolo Papeschi. Furthermore, the system’s augmented reality feature can share visualised data to other operators – in real time or at a later point. IDS GEORADAR C-THRUE Price: varies with region bit.ly/c-thrue

›› The PlantNet app identifies plant species from photographs, using visual recognition software. identify. plantnet-project.org ››Drones are being increasingly deployed to assist in surveying tasks. A new online portal helps connect key players in the industry, from private operators to regulation experts. dronemajorgroup.com ››Another 2.5 billion people are projected to move into the world’s cities by 2050. Urban designer Peter Calthorpe shares seven universal principles or solving sprawl and building smart, sustainable cities. bit.ly/CalthorpeTED ››Author Julian Treasure’s book, How to be Heard: Secrets for Powerful Speaking and Listening, offers advice on the art of skilled conversation and conscious listening, to help you communicate more effectively.

“I COULDN’T LIVE WITHOUT” TOM NIXON MRICS

IMAGE MAGIC PLAN

Magic Plan It is: A smartphone or tablet-based app for creating augmented reality floor plans.

How it works: We can’t get enough of this app. You can create floor plans in seconds – just point your phone at each corner of a room in turn and it creates a plan of the room. From the plan, the app can calculate the floor and wall areas and this can be converted

into cost estimates. Then you can add objects, furniture and photo annotations. On many of our projects we need a floor plan, and this saves at least an hour on the dreaded “CAD machine”. The app is great for real estate agents too, as you can visualise

new room layouts or swap around different items of furniture, and publish them as interactive floor plans available for clients to view online. magic-plan.com TOM NIXON MRICS is a director at Set Square Surveyors, London Q2 2018_MODUS A SI A 47

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MOVING ON UP

THE GENDER GAP

The 12th annual RICS and Macdonald & Company Asia Salary and Benefits Survey finds a real estate community that is reaping greater rewards, is more optimistic about the year ahead, and itching for the next big move.

$110,890

$37,801

was the average bonus given, up 79.4% on 2017. This year, 63% of respondents received a bonus, up 6% on last year.

Hong Kong

Singapore

$110,890

$110,106

$103,149

$139,337 $86,153

China*

$101,692

$119,211

$101,745

$96,087

$81,428

Average salary

$130,823

Not professionally qualified

is the gap in earnings between men and women aged 41-50. This is the widest disparity in all the age brackets, as is the

52.6% difference in size of bonus.

JOB SATISFACTION

$93,216

RICS professional

$169,378

HOW MUCH IS AN RICS QUALIFICATION WORTH?

$161,473

is the average salary of a property professional in Asia – the highest it has been in the past 10 years and a 23% increase on last year. This is partly a result of the increase in seniority of the respondents.

18.6%

Average all

Oceania

Although most respondents are satisfied with their job (76%), the number of those who are not grew from 18% last year to 24%. Thus, a correlation can be drawn with those who intend to change employer, which is up 13% on 2017. Very

Fairly

Not very

Not at all

How satisfied overall are you with your current job? % 18

There has been a big swing towards positivity in Asia’s real estate market, with 45% of respondents feeling positive – up from 30% last year – while only 9% believe that economic activity will decrease in 2018.

22%

34%

30%

23%

+10% Dental insurance 33%

Performance-related bonus +7% 40%

Mobile phone 52%

Five-day working week 72%

Health insurance 72%

37%

Increase

25%

43%

+3%

How likely are you to change employer in the next 12 months?

46%

2018

45%

2017

48%

2016

+5%

+10%

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT YEAR WILL …

58%

EMPLOYMENT BENEFITS Health and dental insurance both surged 10% on last year’s results, with the latter now equalling a five-day working week as the most popular employee benefit.

*Data for China reflects the fact that most RICS professionals in the country are relatively new to the profession, whereas more senior, high-earning respondents tend to be older non-members.

Decrease

No change

FOR A MORE IN-DEPTH LOOK at the results from this year’s Asia Salary & Benefits Survey, visit rics.org/asiasalarysurvey

Although every care is taken in the collection and compilation of data, the stakeholder sample is drawn from a wide demographic base, and so the survey is interpretive and indicative, not conclusive.

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Foundations

EVENTS Full RICS events listings online at rics.org/events

HONG KONG

››Construction Project Management: Delays & Disruption training course 24 June, RICS office, Hong Kong Construction project delays can occur for any number of reasons. It is crucial to the proposed management of a project to understand what can trigger disruption and implement the correct process to manage it. This course will equip you with the skills necessary to record delays and disruption, prepare a delay notice, apply your knowledge to extension-of-time scenarios, operate cause-and-effect analyses, and keep records to assist in delay scenarios. CPD: 6 hours HK$2,000 rics.org/delaysdisruptionshk ››Contract Administration 21 July, RICS office, Hong Kong For anyone involved in construction projects, it is essential that accurate records are kept. To provide construction professionals with the skills to do this, our contract administration course will provide an overview of best practice, how to monitor progress and guidance on post-contract administration. By the end of the course, you will be able to assess the responsibilities for record keeping; prepare registers and records for correspondence, drawings, variations and resources on site; analyse and interpret the variation process from inception to valuation; and recognise bad practice. CPD: 6 hours HK$2,000 rics.org/contractadminhk

OCEANIA

››RICS Awards Australia 7 June, Plaza Ballroom, Melbourne Join more than 300 professionals to celebrate outstanding achievement, teamwork and companies in Australia’s land, construction, real estate and infrastructure sectors. Showcasing excellence in the built environment industry, in our 150th anniversary year, we will celebrate with several new categories that recognise the achievements of RICS professionals – including the Women of the Built Environment Award to honour and promote professionals from all disciplines of the industry – and the Lifetime Achievement Award, recognising eminent commitment to RICS and the wider profession. A$195+tax; A$1,900+tax for table of 10 rics.org/awardsoceania

VIETNAM

››Infrastructure & Real Estate Development Conference 27 June, Novotel Saigon Centre, H�ô Chí Minh City Despite large, unfunded infrastructure needs, ASEAN countries continue to improve their connectivity and form a strong network as part of China’s ongoing Belt and Road initiatives. Vietnam’s infrastructure construction industry continues to expand at pace, reflecting greater investments in largescale projects in the transport, energy, water, and telecoms sectors. This conference will take a closer look at current and future infrastructure and real estate projects in Vietnam. Topics covered will include funding systems, investment opportunities, contractual challenges, and interface issues. CPD: 6 hours $250+tax rics.org/IRED

RICS INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND MANAGEMENT SUMMIT

27 July, W Shanghai – The Bund hotel, Shanghai, China

MALAYSIA

››RICS BIM Conference 2018 25 July, InterContinental Kuala Lumpur Asia has fostered BIM implementation throughout the development of its roadmap. In ASEAN, Singapore is considered to have implemented BIM effectively, and Malaysia is increasingly fostering the implementation to support the Construction Industry Transformation Plan (CITP) 2020. A minimum of 40% BIM implementation rate for public projects above MYR100m is recommended by CITP. More emerging markets in Asia are aware that BIM implementation is critical in achieving the 60% growth in infrastructure projects forecast by 2025. The RICS BIM Conference 2018 will look at the national guide, roadmap and international standards relating to BIM implementation. It will also debate the key factors, challenges and obligations of project stakeholders in implementing BIM throughout the construction life-cycle. CPD: 6 hours Price TBC rics.org/BIMMalaysia

With the appreciation of the Renminbi, investors have begun to explore new real estate investment markets to diversify portfolio risk. Chinese investors are becoming increasingly active in overseas markets such as Europe, the US and other regions of Asia-Pacific. Meanwhile, more domestic capital is chasing a limited stock of investment opportunities, while issues such as urban renewal are becoming increasingly important for real estate. This summit will provide a comprehensive review of the globalisation of China’s real estate market over the past decade, and the driving force of RICS in the internationalisation of the real estate market. CPD: 8 hours RMB2,460 rics.org/chinaCREsummit

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Mind map

WHAT’S WRONG WITH DISASTER RELIEF?

Commendable as they are, project managers tend to arrive with a lot of funding, but without a construction background. So buildings often fail due to a lack of professional oversight.

Glyn Utting, associate, strategic advisory services, WYG, Leeds, UK

There is a serious lack of construction expertise within NGOs and large charities.

We too often neglect the talent already there in a disaster-hit country. We need to provide expertise in the background, while building the competence and confidence of local builders and engineers.

Construction industry firms and organisations could do more via their corporate social responsibility or pro bono schemes to offer professional expertise, rather than cash.

ILLUSTRATION DANILO AGUTOLI

The biggest mistake “the West” makes in these situations is not engaging properly with local communities. We make broad assumptions about what people need and want.

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Your most trusted real estate partner with professional and innovative services that bring your

cushmanwakefield.com/action

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