AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST WINNERS 2018 saw a number of positive developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, according to the World Bank. Recovery and reconstruction efforts are ongoing in Iraq following the liberation of its territory, while countries including the Arab Republic of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have seen significant fiscal and social reforms. Moreover, economic growth has picked up throughout the region, and nearly all MENA countries have moved to reduce or eliminate energy subsidies, identify new sources of non-oil revenue, and expand social safety nets to protect the poor from the detrimental impacts of progress.
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to recover at a steady pace and is forecast to rise to 3.1% in 2018’s final figures, and to stabilise to an average of 3.6% in 2019 – 20. This moderate growth upswing nonetheless remains unsteady, with significant variation across countries. Among Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies, a slower than previously anticipated recovery in the oil sector (and continued challenges in non-oil industrial sectors) will weigh on activity in Nigeria. The growth forecasts for Angola and South Africa have been revised slightly upward on the provision that slowing inflation and improving sentiment would help sustain continued recovery in domestic demand, especially in investment. However, although political transitions have created opportunities for reforms in Angola and South Africa, implementation of these reforms is likely to be gradual and implies a cautious growth outlook.
Growth in the MENA region is expected to rebound to an average 2.0% in 2018’s final data (not yet available at the time of going to print) from an average 1.4% in 2017. The mild rebound in regional growth reflects the positive impact of reforms and stabilisation policies undertaken in many countries in tandem with a recent rise in oil prices and external oil demand. Growth in the MENA is forecast to improve modestly, reaching an average of 2.6% in 2019 – 2020. Oil exporters will significantly benefit from higher oil prices and external oil demand that will likely remain high, as well as domestic reforms. Oil importers are expected to benefit from reforms, rising trade with Europe and China, and financial inflows from MENA oil exporters. While overall growth appears robust, the pace of the economic recovery in the region remains slow. Challenges – such as a sluggish pace of reforms, a temptation to return to pro-cyclical fiscal policies in the wake of higher oil prices, growing debt levels and high unemployment rates among youth and women – could deter economic recovery and derail long-term growth prospects.
Global Awards 2019
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