The big gamble

Coolmore’s 2020 investment and purchase of promising sire Wootton Bassett looks as though it is already paying dividends, writes Jocelyn de Moubray

IF COOLMORE’S PURCHASE OF WOOTTON BASSETT looked like a bold move a year ago, it has since been revealed a shrewd investment for the future.

Not only did Wootton Bassett cover 244 mares at fee of €100,000 in his first season based at the Irish stud, but, even before the end of the covering season, the good racecourse results of his progeny had added further to the considerable momentum already behind the horse.

Wootton Bassett has achieved exceptional results since retiring to stud at the Haras d’Etreham at a fee of only €5,000. His first two-year-olds hit the racecourse in 2015 and, even though Almanzor had looked promising at two, it was not until the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained colt’s brilliant three-year-old career in 2016 that Wootton Bassett started to attract more, and better, mares.

What is remarkable about his record is that neither the rise in fee – though his two-year-olds of 2021 were conceived at a fee of still just €20,000 – nor the size of each year’s book – the number of foals a year has gone from 15 in his first crop to an average of 80 over the last three years – has changed his consistently excellent results.

Right from the beginning, around four per cent of Wootton Bassett’s foals have achieved a rating of 110 or higher and 12 per cent a rating of 95 or higher.

This season there were more horses running for him, and so more Group winners and Group 1 winners, and now with an international reputation his progeny have the chance to compete successfully in England and Ireland, as well as in France.

Incarville became Wootton Basset’s fourth Group 1 winner in the Prix de Saint Alary in May, while right from the moment his two-year-olds started to run, his 2019 crop put together exceptional results.

At the time of writing, Wootton Bassett has had 17 two-year-old winners, including the best three juveniles trained in France – the Group 1-winning filly Zellie, the Group 1-placed colt Trident and the unbeaten Group winner Topgear.

He has also had Group 2 winners in both Ireland and England – Atomic Jones and Royal Patronage.

Wootton Bassett’s first Irish crop will not begin to race until 2024, but there is every reason to expect his last two Etreham crops, produced off a €40,000 fee, to include several more Group 1 and Group winners.

It is impossible to say why the son of Iffraaj has turned out to be such an outstanding stallion, but there is little doubt that his pedigree has been a help.

Wootton Basset has no inbreeding within four generations and Sadler’s Wells, Danehill, Green Desert and Urban Sea do not appear in his pedigree, which means that, on paper, he is suited to the vast majority of mares in Europe.

On top of this he seems to match successfully with a wide variety of different mare types. His Group 1 winners to date are out of mares by Maria’s Mon, Green Tune, Nathaniel, Elusive City and Azamour, all very different types of sire.

Wootton Bassett’s best progeny tend to run as two-year-olds, but as three-year-olds and older they have excelled at distances from 5f to 1m6f, and his best horses are evenly split between colts and fillies. If there is anything common to the majority of them it is a strong constitution and a calm temperament.

Next year key for the top gang of three

Wootton Bassett is the older sire on the steepest upward trajectory, but there are several others whose circumstances will be transformed between now and 2024, when the progeny of 2022’s coverings will be offered for sale as yearlings.

For the strong group of sires who retired to stud in 2015, the 2022 season will prove to be decisive as their first big crops, conceived after their initial stud successes in 2018, reach the racecourse.

This will be particularly true for Kingman, No Nay Never and Sea The Moon, who have been the leaders of the group from the word go.

Kingman had 80 two-year-olds in 2021, and he will have 180 in 2022, similarly No Nay Never will go from 90 to 150 and Sea The Moon from 70 to a 115.

In all three cases their second and third crops did not match the success of their first, but they have achieved enough to expect all three to make a significant mark in the future.

This group also includes Australia, whose disappointing first crop of two-year-olds put his long term future in doubt. However, Coolmore’s son of Galileo has proved to be a consistent sire of middle-distance horses and his fourth crop of two-year-olds already includes two Group 1 performers, Sisoko and Point Lonsdale.

The final member of the group whose reputation looks set to rise is Anodin, who moves to the Haras de la Haie Neuve for the 2022 season.

Sea The Moon: next year will be a big one for him with a first crop of over 100 due to hit the racecourse, conceived after success in 2018

The son of Anabaa’s first two crops included Group winners in France, the US and Hong Kong and, after a quiet year, he has a couple of promising two-year-olds in Anobe and Saramouche. He will have 90 two-year-olds in 2022, up from less than 30 this year.

Among the sires who retired to stud in 2015, Night Of Thunder is still the leader with the Group 2 winner Suesa his best rated in 2021. The Darley stallion could have a relatively quiet year in 2022 as he covered significantly fewer mares in his second, third and fourth seasons. He should return to the limelight when his foals of 2021 reach the racecourse in 2023.

One of this group whose reputation was enhanced in 2021 was Coolmore’s Gleneagles.

He was, along with Golden Horn, the most expensive of them during his first year at stud, and has turned into a consistent sire of middle-distance horses and had his first Group 1 winner with Loving Dream in France and a Classic winner in Germany courtesy of the filly Novemba.

Darley’s Golden Horn has sired a high proportion of good horses in each of his crops to date, even if he has lacked the stars which could have been expected from such a top racehorse.

The final member of this group whose Galiway: is heading toward the elite band of French sires, courtesy of Sealiway and five other stakes horses in this year’s three-year-old crop success has taken him from an opening fee of €3,000 to €30,000 in 2022 is the Haras de Colleville’s Galiway.

Sealiway, from his second crop, became his first Group 1 winner as a two-year-old in 2020 and surpassed that achievement this year as a three-year-old with a placed effort in the Prix du Jockey-Club and a win in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot.

Sealiway is not the only horse who is taking the son of Galileo into the elite bracket of French sires – Galiway has five other stakes horses from his 48 three-year-olds of 2021.

My figures in these tables are divided up by the year stallions retired to stud as it is impossible to judge any stallion’s true level until it has had at least four crops of three-year-olds to race.

Frankel: 2021’s champion sire

Of course, by this stage many have already dropped out through lack of success or inability to attract sufficient mares to remain in view. In a commercial market, which puts emphasis on the new, it is very difficult for any sire to continue to attract support.

The combination of huge books for the super-sires and the “appeal of the new” makes it difficult for the remainder i.e. the majority of older sires to attract enough mares to maintain a visible presence on the racecourse and in the sales ring.

The big four will stay busy

Two of the best older sires in Europe died during 2021, Galileo and Adlerflug, which will open up opportunities, but Dubawi, Sea The Stars, Lope De Vega, Siyouni and Frankel will cover large books of mares at high fees for as long as they are physically able to do so.

All four have consistently, and over a number of years, produced results far above the average and the results of Dubawi, Siyouni and Lope De Vega, in particular, have not been unduly changed by the dramatic rise in their covering fee, while Sea The Stars and Frankel have always been expensive sires.

Siyouni and Lope De Vega both retired to stud in 2011 at €7,000 and €15,000 respectively. Lope De Vega has been the more consistent in the years since, while Siyouni has kept coming up with the Classic winners and champions such as Sottsass and St Mark’s Basilica.

Better mares doesn’t necessarily equate to better results for fast sires

It seems that it is more complicated for sires of fast horses and two-year-olds to maintain their results after a significant change in stud fees.

Looking at the table of European sires by crop from 2009 to 2018 it is striking that neither Dark Angel or Showcasing have been rarely matched the success of their first crop, despite the fact that their fees have gone from €10,000 to €85,000 for the former and from £5,000 to £55,000 for the later.

The lesson is probably that the more expensive mares are not necessarily the ones most suited to every sire. Oasis Dream’s stud career followed a similar trend with a spectacular first crop a high fee and then a gradual diminuendo, even if he has a two-year-old champion in 2021 and has become a leading active broodmare sire.

Other older sires who look to be on the way up in the market’s esteem include Starspangedbanner and Bated Breath.

Coolmore’s Starspangledbanner’s fertility problems nearly ended his stud career, but his last two crops of three-year-olds have included 16 stakes horses, 12 per cent of his 135 named foals.

The fee for Juddmonte’s Bated Breath has edged up from £8,000 to £12,500, but not without some ups and downs along the way as his book has varied from only 70 mares some years to 140 in others.

In 2021, Bated Breath’s three-year-olds included the high-class Makaloun in France, while his two-year-old crop featured the talented Sacred Bridge in Ireland.

He may finally achieve the consistent support needed to maintain a position in the market. His progeny are well suited to fast ground and All-Weather tracks and so not surprisingly he has had success in the US.

A middle-distance conundrum

If it is difficult for all older sires to compete with the super-sires, it is perhaps more so for the middle-distance sires than any other category.

Sea The Moon has been given his chance in England, and Nathaniel’s first progeny after the emergence of his champion Enable have shown promise as two-year-olds in 2021.

In France, the best young middle-distance sire is Galiway, but the French race programme doesn’t encourage breeders to produce 1m4f three-year-olds.

In Germany, even Adlerflug never received the mares his excellence deserved. Without him German breeders, who are looking to produce Derby and Oaks winners, do not have a great deal of choice at home.

Soldier Hollow will be a 22-year-old in 2022 and there is a real need for one of the younger sires to make a significant mark.