Alioune Sall

Alioune Sall

Fundador e Diretor Executivo do African Futures Institute, Pretória Founder and Executive Director of the African Futures Institute, Pretoria

he title of our panel starts with the question which reads “8 billion people and so what?” The title goes further and is expanded by asking two other questions: where and why is the population expanding or declining and what might be the implication? And will the future demographic dividend compensate for the problems caused by the increased population growth rates in many countries? We therefore have to deal with three questions and I share my views on why they are important from an African perspective, and what can be done to address them.

First of all, whenever this figure of the projected world population - 8 billion people - is put forward, attention is turned to sub-Saharan Africa as it will be the main source of the world population growth. It will not be Europe, for reasons that have been explained explicitly by John, it will not be America, it will not be Latin America, it will not even be Asia. So, Africa will be the main source of growth.

Why is this so? A high fertility rate. In 2000, close to 15% of African people were under 24; by 2020, 60% of Africans were under 24; and by 2050, 35% of the youth population worldwide will be African. In other words, the demographic

Ttransition is still slow, that is the main reason behind this massive population growth in Africa. Secondly, the question is how will Africans handle this massive growth. And here we have different viewpoints: 1) The Malthusian view, which points to the risk of food insecurity, particularly as agricultural productivity remains low. It is also likely to lead to environmental degradation of the production, particularly if the production systems remain as they are, mainly based on extensive systems, and it could spell doom for the survival of African states if not properly handled. 2) The Ester Boserup perspective, which shows that population increase provides an incentive for innovation and intensification of the production, production systems, particularly if food prices increase as they should once the urban bias of economic policy is removed. 3) The Marxist view, which shows that population growth is neither a curse nor an asset because it is not an independent variable issue of social class structures that have to be factored in and so on. 4) The renaissance revivalist proponent, which argues that

this projected population growth should be seen as good news, particularly because the continent has been depleted of its workforce for long by centuries of slave trade across Sahara Atlantic.

I take that these four contrasting, and at times widely opposing views, are just possible scenarios, albeit sketchy ones for that matter, as they neither depict what the situation will be, only in broad strokes, nor elaborate on the trajectories that would lead to the projected situations. They are based on unsubstantiated assumptions and reflect ideological stances more than a thorough knowledge of the African situation with regard to demography. They are therefore not very helpfully, in my view, for the formulation of evidence-based policies, which are required.

Now, if one were to adopt a systemic approach and develop scenarios, I think, very quickly, three major scenarios can be formulated.

1) One would be a trend-based scenario, where there would not be any significant development, and where there would not be a catastrophic situation as well.

Africa has been surviving to a larger extent with economic situations changing from year to year, depending on agriculture, rainfall and so on and so forth, of prices of commodities on the international market.

There is no significant development but there is no major crisis either, so that would be a trend-based scenario. 2) Another possible scenario is one where due to a combination of internal and external crisis there would be a collapse of African economies society. Note Sahel for instance became what has been termed as Sahelistan, and Mali, which is the epicenter of the Sahelian crisis today, can be just another Somalia.

3) A third scenario would be an adaptation where population growth would be under checked and the continents could rip off the benefit of a demographic dividend as demographers called it.

And now, the question is which one of the three scenarios will prevail?

It must be said that it is difficult to answer the question in view of the diversity of the situation in Africa. There are very small countries like the Seychelles with less than 200 000 peo-

ple, and there are countries like Nigeria with close to 200 million people. But one thing remains sure, in spite of the diversity, the future will not be what it used to be as control of human capital will be more and more central in the competition for extension in the globalized capitalist system.

According to late Samir Amin, who was an Egyptian economist, population dynamics will be an important factor in geopolitical positioning of the nations along with some variables. So, the challenge for Africa will be how to translate the current and expected demographic bonus into not only a demographic dividend but also a social and political dividend. In

Population dynamics as well as investment decisions are driven by prospect and vision of the future as well as by confidence in the future.

other words, how can we promote and implement a development paradigm which reconciles sustained economic growth with social justice and environmental sustainability, at various levels, whether national, regional or global? Is the Sustainable Development Goals’ framework an appropriate one to achieve this objective? I would argue that, indeed, it can be a helpful one, but it must be expanded so as to make greater room, and in an explicit manner, to the missing link between the economic transformation, social justice and environmental sustainability. And that missing link, for me, is peace and political stability. The case for bringing peace in the equation has been made forcefully by the African Union in its long tradition and in its agenda 2063 which called for a “peaceful Africa”, in peace with itself as well as with other continents. The case has been made by the UN repeatedly which has conceptualized this as the cornerstone or ultimate goal of the UN effort since the system was born. That was particularly highlighted by Boutros Boutros-Ghali in the 90s when he developed his agenda, the first one of which was the agenda of peace which was released in 1992. António Guterres has also made peace as the cornerstone of its efforts as UN Secretary-General. At this juncture I would like to emphasize that population dynamics as well as investment decisions are driven by prospect and vision of the future as well as by confidence in the future.

Peace and political stability do contribute to strengthening that confidence whereas physical, social, environmental and political insecurity or disruption triggers a sense of vulnerability which is counterproductive in the long run as it only creates a radar mentality or a free rider behavior that leads to the tragedy of commons. Therefore, the initial Sustainable Development Goals’ framework should be expanded to encompass what has been called the 5 “P” of structural transformation. The first “P” meaning People, men and women of all age groups with no one left behind; the second “P” is Prosperity, sustained economic growth; the third “P” is Peace as a result of democratization of societies through political and security arrangement; the fourth “P” is Planet referring to environmental sustainability; and the fifth “P” is Partnership as the preferred modality for creating win-win situations and getting rid of the too often zero-sum game logic which is pervading.