Petroleum Review April 2021 - open access articles

The magazine for oil and gas professionals in the energy transition

April 2021 – open access articles The following articles are taken from Petroleum Review magazine’s April 2021 edition for promotional purposes.

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Africa

VIEWPOINT

Call for co-operation The events of 2020 have highlighted the need for intra-African co-operation in the oil and gas sector, says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.

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Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique Photo: Rovuma LNG

he oil and gas industry’s experience of 2020 was driven by two extreme events. On the one hand, global energy demand plunged more quickly than anyone thought possible as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world and countries imposed lockdowns and other restrictions to safeguard public health. On the other hand, global crude oil prices plunged to shockingly low levels as Saudi Arabia and Russia let the OPEC+ production deal lapse, setting off a brief war for market share and prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and a few other grades of crude dropped below zero in April 2020.

As a result, two of Africa’s largest oil producers – Nigeria and Angola – spent part of the second quarter of the year trying to find ways to unload dozens of unsold cargoes. Neither could find enough buyers to dispose of millions of

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barrels of crude that had been loaded onto tankers and could not be transferred back to shore due to a lack of storage capacity.

Elsewhere in Africa, ExxonMobil delayed its final investment decision (FID) on the $30bn Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique in April 2020, weak demand and low prices forcing the US major to rethink its spending priorities. Meanwhile, BP announced that it was postponing the delivery date for a floating LNG (FLNG) vessel to be installed at Grand Tortue/Ahmeyim (GTA), a block that sits astride the maritime border between Senegal and Mauritania. Norway’s Aker Energy terminated its letter of intent (LoI) with Malaysia’s Yinson for the operation of a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel at Ghana’s offshore Pecan field in April and international oil companies (IOCs) marked April and May 2020 by suspending most drilling off the coast of Angola, as demand for Angolan crude was down in China and other key markets.

The delays didn’t just affect operational matters. They also had an impact on policy. In Nigeria, for example, members of the National Assembly put discussions of the

oft-delayed and sorely needed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) on hold in November so that they could concentrate on passing a budget in the face of declining oil revenues. Many African countries altered their plans for holding licensing rounds. Somalia opted to reduce the number of blocks covered by the auctions from 15 to seven because the pandemic was affecting IOCs’ investment plans. While Nigeria postponed plans for offering major oil fields to investors in a new licensing round because of low oil prices. Liberia and other countries set up onlineonly bidding processes that could not be derailed by travel and other restrictions.

All was not lost However, despite all these delays and disappointments, it would mistake to describe 2020 as a lost year for Africa’s oil and gas sector. Nearly every region of the continent scored some notable victories.

In North Africa, Libyan oil production made a remarkable recovery, rising from less than 100,000 b/d to more than 1mn b/d following the signing of a ceasefire agreement between hostile factions after years of civil war. In

Africa

Morocco, investors looked more deeply into domestic gasification and gas-to-power initiatives, as well as micro-LNG projects.

Meanwhile, Egypt stepped up its support for plans to establish a new gas transport network in the eastern Mediterranean region.

In West Africa, Senegal and Liberia launched licensing rounds, while Ghana adopted plans to establish a new petroleum hub that will include oil-refining, petrochemical, power-generation, and marine fuelling facilities.

Members of the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) consortium reached the FID stage on the Train 7 project, which is expected to boost the Bonny Island liquefaction plant’s production capacity from 22.5mn t/y to 30mn t/y. For its part, Nigeria’s government drew up the PIB and submitted it to legislators for consideration in August, then secured approval for it in the first two readings in September and October before shifting focus to a budget bill.

In Southern Africa, Angola’s national oil company (NOC) announced plans for the sale of non-core assets and the eventual launch of an initial public offering (IPO) of stock. Meanwhile, new basins continued to open up in the region. ReconAfrica moved towards launching its drilling campaign in the Kavango Basin, a region that straddles the NamibiaBotswana border and may contain as much as 12bn barrels of oil and 119tn cf (3.37tn cm) of natural gas.

French company Total made its second discovery in the Outeniqua Basin off the coast of South Africa, saying it had discovered another gas condensate deposit at block 11B/12B. Total also made progress on multiple fronts in East Africa. In Uganda, it acquired upstream and midstream assets from Tullow Oil (UK/Ireland), completing a transaction that is expected to clear some of the obstacles to launching development of the Kingfisher and Tilenga oil fields near Lake Albert. In Mozambique, it secured nearly $15bn worth of financing for the development of the offshore block known as Area 1 and the construction of an LNG plant and associated infrastructure. And Sudan’s transitional government signed a draft agreement on cooperation with South Sudan for oil production.

Working together So, what do all these developments mean? What lessons can Africa take away from 2020?

I’d like to put an idea forward.

It concerns regional co-operation.

It is worth pointing out that many of the events and incidents highlighted above concerned individual states. Despite the inclusion of exceptions such as BP’s GTA project, which involves both Senegal and Mauritania, I’ve mostly mentioned one country at a time.

In my opinion, that is both important and unfortunate – important because it highlights the fact that African states are developing their oil and gas resources on their own, working more closely with foreign partners than they do with each other, and unfortunate because African states can help build up each other if they look for ways to contribute to each other’s oil and gas sector.

In the past, I have urged African oil field service providers (OSPs) to build up their capacity so that they could become regional businesses, capable of supporting development not only in their home countries, but also in neighbouring states, and able to serve as cost-effective alternatives to big-name international firms, such as Schlumberger.

I strongly believe this kind of regional co-operation might have helped Africa in 2020. For example, if local OSPs had played a more prominent role in African oil and gas projects, they might have been able to streamline these projects, partly by cutting customs and transportation expenses and partly by drawing on a lower-cost labour pool. That would have given Africa some insulation from last year’s unprecedented combination of a pandemic and a price war – and might also have sparked IOCs’ interest in future deals with local service firms.

Combatting climate change Furthermore, regional cooperation might also prove useful in the face of the multi-lateral campaign to combat climate change.

There has already been a certain amount of joint effort on this front. For example, one result of the very first meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which took place in 1995, was the formation of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change (AGN). The group has remained active ever since. It helped to establish a pan-African policy on climate issues in the run-up to the COP15 meeting in Copenhagen in 2009,and it has continued to argue for Africa’s interests, taking

the stance that the continent must have financial support from more developed regions if it is to meet climate targets.

In the run-up to COP26 – postponed until November 2021 because of the pandemic – AGN has been pressing developed countries to uphold their commitment to less developed regions. Specifically, it has been reminding the developed world of its pledge to provide $100bn/y by 2020 to close gaps in climate financing – and pointing out how vulnerable Africa will be to climate change if these gaps remain open.

As I’ve written elsewhere, I have reservations about the wisdom of letting outside organisations dictate African climate policy – especially when that policy may have the effect of preventing Africa from using its own natural resources to improve African lives through domestic gasification and electrification programmes.

Nevertheless, I admire AGN for its success in bringing the entire continent together to make the point that reducing emissions and switching to renewable energy does not just involve policy decisions but must also involve levelling the playing field for less developed regions that haven’t had the time or wherewithal to build gas-powered plants that can compensate for the times when the wind doesn’t blow and clouds cover the sun.

I suspect that stakeholders in African oil and gas could learn a great deal from AGN’s example. I wonder, for example, what might happen if African NOCs, private companies and OSPs worked together to respond to the development banks and private financial institutions that announced last year that they were phasing out loans for fossil fuel projects? What if they all teamed up to make a case in favour of making more financing available for gasification and gas-to-power projects? What if they joined forces to create an ‘all of the above’ strategy, premised on the idea that both conventional and renewable energy can support economic development and bring emissions down?

I would really like to see this happen. That is what needs to be Africa’s main take-away from 2020 – more self-advocacy and more cooperation in pursuit of a common goal. l

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Fuel retail markets

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Setting a course for 2030 Global progress Despite the hopefully short-term impact of COVID-19, there is a pattern of continued growth for EVs and PHEVs which is expected to be sustained throughout the 2020s. EVs staked their claim with 4% share of all new car sales in 2020, according to EV-Volumes’ database.

Looking back, in 2019, BEVs accounted for 74% of global EV sales, 6% above 2018. The rise was ombined annual sales of partly stimulated by new, stricter battery electric vehicles European emissions standards (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid that persuaded manufacturers to EVs (PHEVs) topped the 2mn favour production and sale of zero mark for the first time in 2019. emission vehicles. Another factor Although this much-anticipated is the advanced state of the BEV milestone may have been market in China, compared to the overshadowed by the pandemic, economic uncertainty and changed rest of the world. Although BEVs are still the dominant EV technology in consumer priorities, there is value in taking stock of the EV market on the US and Europe, they command a smaller share of the market than the road to net zero. in China.

Admittedly, COVID-19 has There are significant regional completely disrupted global sales disparities in growth. Sales of EVs and manufacturing, so a revised grew 15% in 2019 compared to 2018, forecast based on updated data is driven by the growth of BEVs in needed. However, by examining Europe (93%), China (17%) and other recent trends in the EV market regions (22%). Whereas BEV sales in worldwide and noting many factors fostering growth in various the US fell 2%. In 1H2020, COVID-19 slowed down the growth of EV directions, we have formed conclusions about how the market sales across various regions, and the speed of recovery is expected to will take shape over the next vary. decade.

Generally, however, the course The significant growth of seems clear for growth over the EVs leading up to 2030 will next decade, despite the potential present major opportunities and detrimental impact of the pandemic challenges for traditional original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), on total car sales over the next three new entrant OEMs and dealerships. years.

Electric vehicles accounted for about 4% of car sales in 2020. Here, Deloitte consultants Michael Woodward, Dr Bryn Walton and Dr Jamie Hamilton suggest how to seize opportunities and manage risks globally.

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Figure 1: Outlook for annual global passenger car and light duty vehicle sales to 2030

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Source: Deloitte analysis, IHS Markit, EV-Volumes

Regional markets Europe: Europe’s EV sector saw significantly more growth than other regions in 2019. The Nordics and the Netherlands continue to lead the way. Norway achieved 56% market share, and two of the top 10 best-selling cars in Holland were BEVs. The UK and some other countries reported triple-digit growth for the year. Favourable government policies and a change in consumer attitudes were the catalysts, driven primarily by growing concerns about climate change.

Climate change rose to the top of many European government’s agendas. The UK committed to a target of net zero emissions by 2050 and proposed a ban on the sale of all polluting vehicles by 2030. Germany proposed to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% by 2020, by 55% by the end of 2030 and up to 95% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels.

Despite the growth seen in 2019, mainstream adoption of EVs has been hindered by the limited number of models available in the European market and consumer perceptions regarding insufficient charging infrastructure in some regions.

The outbreak of COVID-19 and national lockdown measures impacted total car sales, but EV sales held up well in comparison to their internal combustion engine (ICE) equivalents.

China: China continues to dominate the EV market, accounting for half of all vehicle sales. Sales in 2H2019 were lower than expected after some subsidies available to Chinese consumers were halved.

This considerably eroded consumer demand for EVs – PHEV sales fell 9% while BEV sales fell to a 17% growth rate from 2018 to 2019. However, a slowdown in the sale of ICE vehicles in the region means that the EV market share in China actually increased.

The Chinese authorities announced they would refrain from more subsidy cuts in 2020.

Meanwhile, other incentives (for example, number plate privileges in Tier 1 cities) remain. Investment is being made in China’s charging infrastructure and there is a continued focus on encouraging Chinese manufacturers to produce

Fuel retail markets

requires multi-billion dollar capital investments – achievable in some markets through a combination of public and private investment, but unlikely to be achieved routinely around the world. In countries that cannot invest in charging infrastructure, we expect the market for ICE vehicles to remain for some time.

and market EVs. Despite the pandemic and lockdown measures depressing passenger car sales in 1Q2020,

by April 2020 manufacturing production had been restored to prepandemic levels. Although car sales (including EV sales) have remained depressed in certain Chinese provinces, recovery has been accelerated by pent-up demand, favourable policies put in place by Chinese authorities and the ability to purchase cars online – bringing a V-shaped recovery in China, with many individual EV manufacturers benefitting from the release of new models.

US: After an encouraging start in 2019, falling fuel prices in the US led to a disappointing second half of the year for EV sales. The US EV market is almost singlehandedly being carried by the success of the Tesla Model 3 – alone responsible for almost half of all EV sales.

As in Europe and China, US car sales fell sharply in the first three months of 2020 as the pandemic took a toll on demand. The recovery of EV sales is likely to be slower in the US than in other major regions, as manufacturers delay the launch of new cars and consumers take advantage of low oil prices.

Rest of the world: The world outside Europe, China and the US is lagging behind in terms of EV sales, for various reasons – a lack of government commitment to EVs, insufficient or unsuitable charging infrastructure, unavailability of EVs and cultural differences regarding mobility.

For example, Japan is a major global car market, but new car sales are dominated by domestic OEMs that have not yet developed the same range of EVs as their European and Chinese competitors.

Meanwhile, India, like many markets, is dominated by massand low-cost mobility models – an area that OEMs haven’t been able to penetrate so far, because of EVs comparative higher price.

2030 sales forecast Deloitte has analysed the most recent indicators to develop a prediction of the EV market for the next 10 years. BEVs already outperform PHEVs globally and we predict that by 2030, BEVs will likely account for 81% (25.3mn) of all new EVs sold. By contrast, PHEV sales are expected to reach 5.8mn by 2030.

A recovery from COVID-19 will see ICE vehicles return to growth, up to 2025 (81.7mn), then experience a decline in market penetration.

Deloitte’s global EV forecast is

Factors driving growth The long-term outlook for EVs is strong. The significant shift in expected volume of BEVs and PHEVs is based on four factors – consumer sentiment, policy and regulation, OEM strategy, and the role of corporate companies (fleet demand).

The US EV market is almost singlehandedly being carried by the success of the Tesla Model 3 – alone responsible for almost half of all EV sales in the country Photo: Unsplash

for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% achieved over the next 10 years. With total EV sales growing to 11.2mn in 2025, then reaching 31.1mn by 2030.

EVs could secure about 32% of the total market share for new car sales. However, annual car sales are unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels until 2024. The pace of recovery is forecast to be the result of a slowdown in ICE sales. EVs will continue to have a positive trajectory during the COVID-19 recovery period and may well end up capturing a disproportionate share of the market in the short term.

Deloitte expects that by 2030, China will hold 49% of the global EV market, Europe will account for 27%, and the US will hold 14%.

The share of new car sales taken up by EVs will vary considerably across markets. Deloitte forecasts that China will achieve a domestic share of about 48% by 2030 – almost double that of the US (27%), and Europe should achieve 42%.

Growth in Northern and Western Europe is expected to outstrip that in Southern and Eastern Europe as wealthier countries (such as the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Nordic countries) are likely to invest more in infrastructure and offer greater cash and tax incentives to accelerate initial growth.

EV growth beyond 2030 Beyond 2030, Deloitte expects the growth in EV sales to slow. Some markets will be unable to support the transition to EVs in the same way the wealthier nations will over the next decade.

One of the key factors in sustaining growth will be the implementation of suitable charging infrastructure. This

Factor 1: There are several reasons consumers haven’t swapped their ICE vehicles for equivalent EVs – driving range, cost/price premium, charging time, lack of charging infrastructure, safety and battery concerns. However, as barriers to adoption are rapidly removed, EVs are increasingly becoming a realistic and viable option.

Factor 2: Government intervention continues to play an important role in driving EV sales, as shown by success in Norway, the Netherlands and China.

Factor 3: Increasingly, prominent OEMs have announced strategic commitments to EVs. New models have been announced, production targets increased and sales targets moved forward.

Factor 4: Corporate companies are increasingly important to support the transition to EVs, using the above three factors above to their advantage. Deloitte predicts that corporates will account for 63% of total new car sales across Western Europe by 2021/2022.

Although investment in fleets has stalled dramatically during the pandemic, as business confidence returns, corporates need to consider fundamental changes to how and where work is done, that will affect the structure of their mobility schemes.

Looking forward Deloitte expects the existing price premium associated with EVs to be consigned to history sooner rather than later – when it will be commonplace for consumer and fleet transport ‘to go electric’. ● *This is an edited version of Deloitte Insight’s report Electric vehicles: Setting a course for 2030, November 2020.

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Fuel retail markets

HYDROGEN

European hydrogen refuelling market build up As Europe prepares for ambitious revisions to its regulatory framework to support Green Deal targets, a flagship project to encourage hydrogen-based mobility recently released key findings and forecasts. Brian Davis reports.

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he Hydrogen Mobility Europe (H2ME) programme has just completed its first phase, initiated in 2015. About 630 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been deployed in 10 countries, with 37 new hydrogen refuelling stations installed in eight countries. Though it is very early days, the European deployment shows promise and commercial potential for roll-out of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs) for large and small fleets.

FCEVs produce zero tailpipe emissions – only water – with no CO2, nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulphur oxide (SOx) or fine particulate matter; while offering fast refuelling, within 3–5 minutes, and a long driving range of 500+ km on a single charge. They are complementary to battery EVs (BEVs), and are particularly attractive for heavy vehicle applications that remain hard to decarbonise due to operational requirements. Furthermore, hydrogen can be stored easily (produced by water electrolysis or piped or trucked-in from reformulated natural gas) and has the flexibility to adapt to larger demand fluctuations on energy networks.

Although BEVs and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) have become the leading green mobility solutions in recent years, there remain challenges in terms of long range, continuous use and heavy-duty applications. Historically, single power train internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have dominated, but progress in BEV, PHEV and FCEV development can benefit each other due to many shared components and development options.

The €160mn H2ME programme is co-funded by the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH-JU), and involves nearly 50 organisations. Partners include project lead Element Energy, alongside Air Liquide, Audi, BOC, 22 Petroleum Review | April 2021

The Mirai’s hydrogen fuel stack is claimed to offer an energy conversion rate 2–3 times greater than conventional engines with no tailpipe emissions other than water Photo: Toyota

BMW, Daimler, Hyundai, Linde, Michelin, Nissan, OMV, Symbio, Renault, Toyota, ITM Power, Engie Solutions and others. It will create the basis for a pan-European network and will contribute to building the world’s largest network of hydrogen refuelling stations.

Following the conclusion of its initial phase, H2ME recommends provision of regional, national and international incentives to ensure that the dispensed cost of low carbon hydrogen is competitive for vehicle operators, to create a level playing field with other zero emission vehicles. Phase two is scheduled to end in 2022, involving over 1,400 vehicles and more than 45 HRSs. Incentives such as purchase grants and tax exemptions are anticipated to unlock demand from vehicle operators and spur market confidence to vehicle suppliers.

In addition, there is a proposal to give financial support per unit (kg) of hydrogen supplied, on similar lines to the feed-in tariffs which stimulated early renewable energy uptake, to lower the price of green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy) at the pump.

Thus strengthening the business case for FCEVs.

The second phase of the programme will focus on developing state-of-the-art refuelling stations, with increased options for producing green hydrogen, and targeting a wider range of vehicles, from light duty to heavy duty vehicles. This reflects lessons from phase one that indicate future hydrogen mobility strategies should focus on long range and heavy-duty applications, with short refuelling time, in the transition to zero emissions.

The overall cost of operating FCEVs in these fleets is expected to decrease rapidly in coming years.

For example, analysis of the FCH JU-funded ZEFER project which is deploying 180 FCEVs in Paris, London and Brussels (until 2022), demonstrates that operation costs are expected to decline rapidly, with FCEVs reaching parity on a total cost of ownership basis with petrol/ diesel hybrids within five years.

Market ramp up Creation of an extensive hydrogen refuelling network is essential to market development of FCEVs. Currently, there are a limited number of HRSs, although networks are growing. One advantage is that hydrogen can be produced off-site or on-site and provide grid-balancing services, to help match energy supply to demand.

Off-site production is delivered by tanker or pipeline, in the same way that petrol is delivered to service stations – allowing large-scale production at low costs. Currently, the majority of hydrogen comes from reformulated natural gas. But low carbon sources (ie from water electrolysis) or certificates for green hydrogen can be used to increase the proportion of green hydrogen at the stations. On-site production generates hydrogen by electrolysis, ideally with the aid of renewable electricity.

FCEVs and HRSs are only in the early stages of market ramp-up. But a mature, self-sustaining market

Fuel retail markets

is expected to be reached in the 2030s, with anticipated sales of tens of thousands of vehicles annually and a growing HRS network across Europe. The Hydrogen Council anticipates that by 2030, one in 12 cars sold in California, Germany, Japan and South Korea could be powered by hydrogen.

Current fuel cell vehicles include Hyundai’s ix35 Tucson, Clarity and the Nexo; Toyota’s Mirai FCV; Mercedes-Benz’ fuel cell GLC; and Renault’s Kangoo ZE Hydrogen van; with new FCEV models planned for launch by Audi, BMW, Jaguar and PSA. In 2019, over 2,000 hydrogen vehicles were deployed – 750 cars in Germany, 180 in France, 200 in the UK, 300 in Scandinavia, 300 in Benelux (Belgium/Netherlands/ Luxemburg); 260+ vans, over 80+ buses, 12 trucks and two trains and over 100 HRSs in Europe (Source: H2ME).

The number of FCEVs in Europe is still limited, which discourages early investors.

Limited infrastructure remains a key barrier to uptake of FCEVs and development of a supply chain.

FCEVs are still far more expensive than conventional cars, but costs are expected to improve during the 2020s, offering a cost-competitive alternative, in particular for longrange vehicles for zero emission driving, through economies of scale.

Development of a large market will encourage expansion of the HRS network.

Although the hydrogen storage capacity of FCEVs has increased to 700 bar and safety concerns have been addressed, along with cold start down to –25oC and durability improvements, there is room for further improvement in design (ie component count, reduced stack size) and reduction in material usage in vehicle production, as well as a need to increase the number of FCEV models, leading to reduction in vehicle costs.

Refuelling infrastructure deployment Different HRS network development strategies are being tested across Europe, which vary from region to region.

Germany has extensive national coverage, including major cities, and is focused on establishing a national network to maximise appeal to mass market customers.

The country has deployed 100 HRSs, with further expansion in line to provide a national network and encourage OEM vehicle introduction. Under the H2ME initiative, Air Liquide operates 11 sites in Germany, all HRSs are integrated into service stations operated by Shell, Total or OMV.

Hydrogen Europe's Technology Roadmap has set a target of 1,000 public hydrogen refuelling stations across Europe by 2025

Linde operates nine sites, integrated into forecourts operated by Shell and Total. By 2027, up to 400 HRSs will be operational in Germany, all will be 700 bar and SAE J2600 compliant.

In the UK, initially there is an aim to establish local hydrogen hubs networks, with six 350/700 bar, and accelerated ramp-up between now and 2025. BOC (Linde) operates one HRS in Aberdeen. ITM has sites at Beaconsfield and Gatwick, Swindon, Birmingham and London, operated by Shell. Each has an on-site water electrolyser fed by 100% renewable electricity. The UK government provides grants for both HRS installation and purchase/lease of FCEVs for fleets.

France’s strategy is based on captive fleet applications, to secure and de-risk early HRS investments.

It is focused on local/regional HRS clusters. Most sites are 350 bar, with only limited dual-pressure (700 and 350 bar). Air Liquide operates five 350 bar sites supplied with low carbon hydrogen trucked-in.

AREVAH2Gen/EIFER, AREVAH2Gen/ SEMITAN/EIFER and McPhy/EIFER/ CASC each operate a single site with on-site water electrolysis. Other sites are run by McPhy/GNVERT, GNVERT/ITM, Hyset Co and R-GDS/ R-Hynoca. Over 100 hydrogenbased taxis are on Paris roads. But HRS utilisation has been lower than anticipated outside Paris to date.

Demand is expected to increase with increased deployment of passenger cars or a change in user driving patterns. France’s €100mn National Hydrogen Plan (2018) led to the development of numerous regional hydrogen mobility initiatives.

Facilitated by generous national tax regimes, a network of stations is being developed across the Nordic region. The first plausible network coverage has been achieved in Denmark, with the rest of Scandinavia and Iceland looking to follow. As of November 2019, there were 300 FCEVs and 20 public HRSs deployed – six in Norway, eight in Denmark, three in Sweden and three in Iceland.

Strategies within Benelux are still in development. The H2Benelux project aims to enable national travel across Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.

Further plans are likely to involve expansion based on a cluster approach. In Benelux, deployment is in three stages, with market preparation underway, progressive introduction to 2025 and full market introduction anticipated by 2030. Currently, there is only one HRS in the Netherlands, run

by Kerkhof (Resato) using trucked-

in hydrogen from centralised electrolysers. The H2Benelux project aims to roll out four HRSs in the Netherlands, three in Belgium and one in Luxembourg. The HRSs will be located on existing TEN-T corridors, enabling the HRS network to connect networks in Germany, France and the UK. Hydrogen Europe’s Technology Roadmap has set a target of 1,000 public HRSs across Europe by 2025.

As of July 2020, over 130 were operational, mostly in Germany, France, the UK and Denmark. A further 44 stations are planned or under construction. While this represents the start of a panEuropean refuelling network, many of the existing stations currently only have the capacity to refuel relatively small numbers of light duty vehicles (ie cars and vans). Only a few stations have the capacity to serve fleets of taxis, buses or other high-demand vehicles.

H2ME notes that significant further investment is required to provide a sufficient network of refuelling stations to meet the potential needs of the hydrogen refuelling market. Especially when considering the adoption of heavyduty hydrogen vehicles, such as trucks.

Roll-out of public infrastructure and vehicles has been slower than was planned. Hydrogen Mobility Europe admits that initial plans (in 2015) were over-ambitious. There was strong competition for FCEVs in global markets outside Europe, combined with challenges in identifying and securing refuelling sites in urban centres.

In the absence of high volumes of FCEV passenger cars in Europe, hydrogen mobility initiatives are increasingly converging on the business case for taxis and heavy vehicles. Clusters of stations are developing in key locations where FCEVs are attractive to fleet operators; for buses and refuse trucks and high demand applications, like taxis, along with development of infrastructure supply chains in advance of mass passenger car roll-out. In addition, interesting national and regional initiatives are emerging from the private sector.

With reduced costs, European HRS networks look set to expand in the 2030s on the road to net zero. ●

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