International Conference:
SUSTAINABILITY OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
Conference Proceedings
Centre for European Studies and ASEAN Studies Center Chulalongkorn University July 2018
International Conference: Sustainability of Regional Integration in the EU and ASEAN (Conference Proceedings) Centre for European Studies at Chulalongkorn University ASEAN Studies Center, Chulalongkorn University Advisors Natthanan Kunnamas Suthiphand Chirathivat Editor Voradon Lerdrat Book Designer Voradon Lerdrat First Printed in July 2018 Printed at Pannee Printing Center Co., Ltd. Bangkok, Thailand
CONTENT| Conference Programme 7 Section I: Integration Dynamics in EU and ASEAN: A Historical Perspective 11 The EU Crisis in the Light of European Integration History Franz Knipping 12 The Evolution of the ASEAN Integration Process Kasira Cheeppensook 13 Reflections on the Rise of Euroskepticism in Europe: A Case of Poland Rafal Pankowski 14 Section II: Perspectives on Trade and Multilateralism 15 EU-ASEAN Relations in 2019: Splintered Regions and Weakened Inter-Regionalism? Julie Gilson 16 Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT and Declining Multilateralism: New Theoretical and Policy Insights Paul Welfens 18
Section III: The Challenges of Protectionism and FDI 21 Evolution of ASEAN’s New Protectionism Evelyn S. Devadason 22 The Global Cost of Protectionism Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova 23 ASEAN in the middle of the Giant’s New Trade Policies Tony Irawan 24 Section IV: Effects of Weakening Multilateralism 25 An Assessment on 40 Years of ASEAN-EU Relations: Prospects and Challenges Natthanan Kunnamas 26 Opportunities for more ASEAN – EU Cooperation Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon 28 The Role of the WTO and of EU Integration Reforms Rolf Langhammer 29
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
CONFERENCE PROGRAMME| 9th July 2018
Chaloem Rajakumari 60 Bldg., Chulalongkorn University 08.30 – 09.00 Registration (7th floor hall) 09.00 – 09.15 Opening Remarks (Room 702) Prof. Emeritus Dr. Suthiphand Chirathivat, Director, ASEAN Studies Center, Chulalongkorn University Asst. Prof. Dr. Natthanan Kunnamas, Jean Monnet Chair, Director, Centre for European Studies, Chulalongkorn University 09.15 – 11.00 Section I: Integration Dynamics in EU and ASEAN: A Historical Perspective (Room 702) 1.) The EU Crisis in the Light of European Integration History Prof. Dr. Franz Knipping, Jean Monnet Chair, University of Wuppertal 2.) The Evolution of the ASEAN Integration Process Dr. Kasira Cheeppensook, Centre for Social Development Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
3.) Reflections on the Rise of Euroskepticism in Europe: a case of Poland Dr. Rafal Pankowski, Collegium Civitas (Moderator: Asst. Prof. Dr. Natthanan Kunnamas) 11.00 – 11.30 Morning Break (Room 701) 11.30 – 13.00 Section II: Perspectives on Trade and Multilateralism (Room 702) 4.) EU-ASEAN Relations in 2019: Splintered Regions and Weakened Inter-Regionalism? Dr. Julie Gilson, University of Birmingham 5.) Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT and Declining Multilateralism: New Theoretical and Policy Insights Prof. Dr. Paul Welfens, EIIW/University of Wuppertal (Moderator: Prof. Em. Dr. Suthiphand Chirathivat) 13.00 – 14.00 Lunch (Room 701) 14.00 – 14.45 Keynote Speeches: Future of ASEAN – EU Cooperation (Room 702) H.E. Mr. Pirkka Tapiola, Ambassador of the European Union to Thailand
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
Dr. Suthad Setboonsarng, Former Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN, Board, Bank of Thailand 14.45 – 16.15 Section III: The Challenges of Protectionism and FDI (Room 702) 6.) Evolution of ASEAN’s New Protectionism Assoc. Prof. Dr. Evelyn S. Devadason, University of Malaya 7.) The Global Cost of Protectionism Dr. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, European Commission, Brussels 8.) ASEAN in the Middle of the Giant’s New Trade Policies Dr. Tony Irawan, Bogor University (Moderator: Asst. Prof. Dr. Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon)
10th July 2018
Chaloem Rajakumari 60 Bldg., Chulalongkorn University 09.00 – 09.30 Registration (7th floor hall) 09.30 – 11.30 Section IV: Effects of Weakening Multilateralism (Room 702)
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
9.) An Assessment on 40 Years of ASEAN-EU Relations: Prospects and Challenges Asst. Prof. Dr. Natthanan Kunnamas, Jean Monnet Chair, Director, Centre for European Studies, Chulalongkorn University An Aspect on Thailand-EU Relations Dr. Colin Josef Steinbach, Head of Political, Press & Information to the Delegation of the EU in Thailand 10.) Opportunities for more ASEAN – EU Cooperation Asst. Prof. Dr. Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon, Director, European Studies Program, Ateneo de Manila University 11.) The Role of the WTO and of EU Integration Reforms Hon. Prof. Dr. Rolf Langhammer, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel (Moderator: Prof. Dr. Paul Welfens) 11.30 – 13.00 Lunch (Room 701)
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
Section I:
Integration Dynamics in EU and ASEAN: A Historical Perspective
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
The EU Crisis in the Light of European Integration History| Abstract Franz Knipping Since nearly 10 years, the European Union is in problems. The problems started with the financial and debt crisis in 2008/9, which evolved to become mainly a Greek debt crisis and a crisis of the Euro. Then came the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, the refugee crisis in 2015, the Brexit in 2016, and finally the transatlantic challenges of the Trump presidency in 2017. None of these crisis is solved today. Instead they cumulate to a complex supercrisis which shakes the EU to the roots and darkens the internal acceptance and the external perception of the European integration project. It is proposed to analyze the actual crisis, then, for a deeper understanding, to consider some aspects derived from the history of European Integration, and finally to draw some conclusions. To overcome the crisis, the first necessity is that for the five different crises, convincing individual solutions are drawn up and realized. But moreover, lessons must be learned for initiating a more general reform agenda for making the EU fit for the future. In practice, it will be a stony way, because robust decisions would have to be taken instead of the usual compromises.
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
The Evolution of the ASEAN Integration Process| Abstract Kasira Cheeppensook ASEAN integration process has gained more momentum since the economic crisis in 1997. With the vision to become a caring and sharing community, it celebrated its 50 year anniversary in 2017. The focus of the integration has always been heavier on the economic aspect, with asymmetric results due to development gap among member countries and inequality of access to the resources. This paper will look at the ASEAN integration process and its tools to help combating inequality in ASEAN namely the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) to explore how resource politics play a part in the process. This will have broad implications on social justice and how ASEAN can realize its goal of becoming a people-oriented community with more inclusive growth.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
Reflections on the Rise of Euroskepticism in Europe: A Case of Poland| Abstract
Rafal Pakowski In the period after the systemic changes of 1989, the politics of Poland and other post-Communist states of East-Central Europe was characterized by a large degree of consensus on the question of European integration. The widely shared consensus concerned the membership in the European Union and the desirability of participation in the political, cultural and economic project of European integration. Importantly, the consensus on the institutional aspects of European integration was accompanied by a commitment to the ‘European values’ such as the rule of law, the rights of minorities, tolerance, and respect for diversity. Poland’s entry in the EU in 2004 (approved by the historic national referendum in 2003) could be seen as the sealing of the country’s newly found European identity. The first cracks on the pro-European consensus appeared in 2005-2007, when the government coalition included nationalist-populist parties. Since 2015, the tension in the relationship between the Polish government and the European institutions has become acute especially on issues such as the independence of the judiciary and the response to the refugee crisis. Arguably, the weakening of Poland’s commitment to European integration is strongly linked to the general weakening of the foundations of the post-1989 liberal-democratic social order. The paper will explore the political, economic and cultural implications of the current rise of the Euroskeptic discourse in the context of the growth of nationalist populism across Europe and beyond.
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
Section II:
Perspectives on Trade and Multilateralism
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
EU-ASEAN Relations in 2019: Splintered Regions and Weakened Inter-Regionalism?| Abstract Julie Gilson The world in the late 1990s and early 2000s seemed to welcome and embrace the growth in region-to-region institutional frameworks. There was a recognition that scale and leverage could advantage economic relations, that security could benefit from cross-region dialogue and initiatives, and that some of the many ‘new’ global challenges – from global climate change to resource depletion – could be addressed more effectively at regional and even inter-regional levels. Thus, the Asia-Europe Meeting was inaugurated in 1996, and the EU sought to develop a range of other inter-regional agreements, such as the EU-Mercosur agreement of 1999. Other regions were likeminded to develop interregional arrangements, and included ASEAN-Mercosur. Indeed, the EU and ASEAN sat in the driving seats of all of the major inter-regional agenda, with the US continuing to engage transregional formats (such as NAFTA) alongside its bilateral alliances. Since the global recession from 2008, and with the continuing rise of China, intra-regional difficulties within the European Union and more recent changes in US foreign policy, there have been many challenges to the efficacy of inter-regionalism. Today, ASEM continues but gains little of the international limelight when its leaders meet. This paper examines the ways in which the EU and ASEAN have
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
negotiated those changes, and how they impact on their central roles within the Europe-Asia connection.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT and Declining Multilateralism: New Theoretical and Policy Insights| Abstract Paul Welfens The demise of the socialist systems in Eastern Europe in the late 1990s and disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 at first have contributed to a reinforcement of the World Market Economy, not least since China and the new Russia have joined the World Trade Organization and EU Eastern enlargement, ASEAN integration deepening and TTIP and TPP negotiations seemed to indicate a stronger regional integration and global integration dynamics. However, the declining external EU pressure after the dismemberment of the Soviet Union and imperfect monetary integration in the EU have brought about a weakening of EU integration and this along with the rise of China as the world’s No. 1 exporter has destabilized EU integration as well as the US. The latter faced also a massive decline of the income share of the lower half of the US income pyramid. 2016 brought in the UK – due to Cameron’s info pitfall in the EU referendum campaign – a majority for BREXIT which is a populist political project strongly guided by (digital) wishful thinking on the side of Brexiters; and it brought the election of the populist US president Trump. His view of the US as an economically depressed economy is flawed and his inability to replace the political appointees from the Obama Administration is dangerous for the world economy since it left the US with a major competence gap both in the Treasury and the Ministry of Trade.
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
Trump’s focus US trade balance deficit is ill-placed while the more important current account deficit is not considered in an adequate way, not least since trade and FDI aspects are not considered jointly. An adequately modified new Marshall-Lerner condition is derived here. The aggressive US trade policy shatters the UK’s Global Britain approach and destabilizes the world economy. Multilateralism can be maintained only if the EU, ASEAN, Mercosur, China and other actors cooperate; but the problem of populism in the West is a long-term challenge largely related to inadequate economic policy and weak system design in a period of modern globalization. The EU should be reformed and the EU social market economy should be exported globally.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
NOTE|
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
Section III:
The Challenges of Protectionism and FDI
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
Evolution of ASEAN’s New Protectionism| Abstract Evelyn S. Devadason The 21st century suggests a somewhat vexing scenario of ‘new protectionism’, especially with the rise of protectionist non-tariff measures or NTMs. This largely refers to standard-like NTMs (sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade, known as SPS and TBTs, respectively) with a dual purpose of non-trade policy objectives and (hidden/ concealed) protectionism. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are found to be high users of standard-like NTMs relative to other traditional measures to regulate trade. This begs the question if there has been an intentional shift towards murky protectionism in the region. Grounded on a few criterion to establish potential protectionism, the paper forwards the plausibility of “hidden” barriers in the standard-like NTMs in ASEAN, by drawing upon related secondary data and specific illustrative cases of “harmful” (discriminatory) and burdensome NTMs in the region. From the narrative experiences of ASEAN, it is inferred that procedural obstacles directly associated with a reported standard-like NTM, instead of the NTM itself, largely account for the “hidden” barriers in ASEAN. The paper concludes that irrespective of the motivation for the barriers, whether unintentional or intentional with a protectionist agenda, procedural obstacles deserve attention in their own right.
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
The Global Costs of Protectionism| Abstract Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova This paper quantifies the wide-ranging costs of potential increases in worldwide barriers to trade in two scenarios. First, a coordinated global withdrawal of tariff commitments from all existing bilateral/regional trade agreements, as well as from unilateral preferential schemes coupled with an increase in the cost of traded services, is estimated to result in annual worldwide real income losses of 0.3 percent or US$211 billion relative to the baseline after three years. An important share of these losses is likely to be concentrated in regions such as East Asia and Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean which together account for close to one-third of the global decline in welfare. Highlighting the importance of preferences, the impact on global trade is estimated to be more pronounced, with an annual decline of 2.1 percent or more than US$606 billion relative to the baseline if these barriers stay in place for three years. Second, a worldwide increase in tariffs up to legally allowed bound rates coupled with an increase in the cost of traded services would translate into annual global real income losses of 0.8 percent or more than US$634 billion relative to the baseline after three years. The distortion to the global trading system would be significant and result in an annual decline of global trade of 9 percent or more than US$2.6 trillion relative to the baseline in 2020.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
ASEAN in the middle of the Giant’s New Trade Policies: Indonesian Perspective| Abstract Tony Irawan The new president of the United States (US) has a different approach to the country’s trade policies. The US withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium, the possible elimination of General System of Preferences (GSP) are some of the US’ aggressive trade policies. Those conditions have made several developing countries reviewing their approach to Free Trade Agreement negotiation, including Indonesia. Indonesia is currently re-activating more than dozen FTA negotiations both bilaterally and multilaterally (through ASEAN). By using a GTAP model, this study estimates the possible impact of FTA and focusing on the US and EU by considering the bilateral approach, multilateral approach or both. The results suggest that being passive in the FTA negotiation is not the best strategy for Indonesian economy.
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
Section IV:
Effects of Weakening Multilateralism
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
An Assessment on 40 Years of ASEAN-EU Relations: Prospect and Challenges| Abstract Natthanan Kunnamas Four decades ago, the diplomatic relations between the two theoretically incomparable regional organizations was formally established: the EC/EU became ASEAN’s first dialogue partner. Although these bi-regional ties have always been cooperative, their degrees of intensities and commitments have been minimal during the Cold War. The Post-Cold War era and the global power shift has resulted in the convergences of both regionalisms interests, bringing about more areas for cooperation, other than trade and investment. Besides, the growing strategic importance of Asia-Pacific region (some also terms “Indo-Pacific” region), together with the two organizations’ declaration on enhanced partnership in 2007 and the entry into force of the ASEAN Charter (2008) and the Treaty of Lisbon (2009), have led to new dynamics of these bi-regional relations. The EU has been more enthusiastic to interact in political and security dialogues with ASEAN, to assist ASEAN (sovereigntist) integration, and to support ASEAN-centered multilateral frameworks in the broader East Asia and Asia-Pacific region. This paper will explore this four-decade evolution and assess its major characters and transitions. The paper will also locate plausible areas for further cooperation, for example, trade and investment, maritime security, non-traditional security, and promotion of multilateralism, as well as challenges amidst unilateralism approach
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
endorsed by other major powers. Moreover, the paper aims to answer the question whether and how this bi-regional partnership has contributed to the sustainability of regionalism and multilateralism in both regions, Southeast Asia and Europe.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
Opportunities for More ASEAN-EU Cooperation| Abstract Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon The European Union (EU) is a dialogue partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) since 1977. This dialogue partnership was institutionalized with the signing of the ASEAN-EEC Cooperation Agreement on 7 March 1980. After that, the EU-ASEAN dialogue relations has grown and expanded in scope and depth. From the limited issues of trade, investment and development cooperation, its partnership has extended to social and cultural affairs; and political and security dialogue. This paper traces the evolution of ASEAN-EU Cooperation. It looks into the patterns of trade between the ASEAN and EU from 1995 to 2016; and verifies whether the ASEAN and EU are ‘natural trading partners’ or not. It determines the opportunities in the EU-ASEAN economic and trade relations.
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
The Role of the WTO and of EU Integration Reforms| Abstract Rolf J. Langhammer The paper analyzes the causes why the two institutions have suffered from adverse developments turning them into a stress mode status. It concentrates on the WTO and identifies conflicting targets, non-cooperative behavior of leading member states, the failure of the single undertaking principle in trade negotiations, the rising heterogeneity of interests of member states and the lack of an own mandate to sue violations of rules as the main important causes of the decline of the WTO as an institution protecting the principles of multilateralism. To a large extent, the problems of the EU share identical causes as those of the WTO. However, unlike in the WTO, the EU has been additionally hit by three exogenous shocks, the 2008 crises with an unprecedented rise of public and private unsustainable debt, the inflows of migrants in 2015 and the UK decision to leave the EU. The paper sees scope for reforms in the WTO in a stronger focus on its core competence, that is alleviating market access in industrial goods rather than becoming another development aid agency, in shortening the length of the dispute settlement mechanism (DSM) by dropping the second stage of DSM cases, the appellate body, and finally and most importantly, to initiate plurilateral agreements between like-minded member states with the option to further them toward multilateral agreements.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
For the EU, the paper recommends to concentrate reforms on supporting cooperation projects with a direct and visible benefit for the electorate instead of adding technocratic integration stages to the existing ones with no visible benefit for the citizens. The merits of shallow integration as pursued by ASEAN should receive more attention in the EU than the so far dominating target of deep integration which increasingly meets resistance from the electorate. However, the success of reforms in both institutions hinges upon a cooperative conduct of leading member states prepared to shoulder the costs of a benevolent hegemon. Neither in the WTO in which the US straightforwardly decline to act as a hegemon nor in the EU there is a member state which would be willing and would be accepted as a hegemon. Without such a hegemon, populist and nationalist movements will continue to undermine the principles of multilateralism and will be ever more successful in eroding the rules discipline and the power of the two institutions.
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
NOTE|
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
NOTE|
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
NOTE|
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
NOTE|
SUSTAINABILITY OR REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE EU & ASEAN: IN A PERIOD OF WEAKENING MULTILATERALISM
NOTE|
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES & ASEAN STUDIES CENTER CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
CALL FOR PAPER: JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN STUDIES|
Journal of European Studies (JES) invites proposals and completed articles (length: 1020 A4 pages) for next issues on the following themes: European history; European arts and cultures; European economy; European politics; and European law. For more information, please contact our assistant editor via e-mail: voradon.lerdrat@ gmail.com