Is drought another new normal?

by Pamela Kan-Rice, assistant director of news and information outreach, University of California Cooperative Extension

Despite recent rains, the 2020–21 drought has been unusually severe. Low precipitation, coupled with high evaporation has affected irrigated crops and livestock pastures. Yet California farmers and ranchers are adept at adapting. Despite record-setting drought conditions and hundreds of thousands of acres left unplanted, California farms and ranches, as a whole, may generate normal revenue in 2021, according to the authors of a new special issue of ARE Update focusing on the drought.

The 2020 water year (which ran from October 2019 through September 2020), was dry and hot in California, with the warmest April through September since 1895. It was followed by the third driest year since 1895 – receiving about half of the average 20th century rainfall. Consecutive years with record-setting warm, dry conditions have led to higher evaporative demand. Some regions, particularly the Sacramento Basin, have been hit especially hard by this ongoing drought.

California farmers have adapted to the resulting water shortages by transferring scarce irrigation water to crops that have a higher expected net revenue per drop of water, such as fresh produce and nuts, while leaving some fields unplanted. Due to decreased pasture forage, livestock producers have had to cull mature cows and ship more feeder cattle out of state.

“The dairy industry has had strong production and good revenue, but has faced high feed costs in 2021 that reduced net returns,” said special issue coeditor Daniel Sumner, UC Davis agricultural economist.

The drought's impact on farm revenues and prices in California has varied across crops and regions. Agricultural production on the coast (e.g., vegetables, berries and wine grapes), which accounts for 25 percent of farm output, is less likely to experience irrigation cutbacks during a drought. Consumers will notice few major price increases for California produce because farmers shifted water to these high-revenue crops in which California specializes.

The special issue on drought concludes with an explanation of 24 California Cattleman December 2021

policy changes that have improved the California water system in the past and envisions how policy changes might mitigate impacts of future droughts. Legislation such as the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) will facilitate adapting to new climate realities by incentivizing water trading and banking, which allow water users to better allocate water across space and time. Most groundwater agencies are still assessing the best way to bring their overdrafted groundwater basins into compliance with SGMA, with almost 80 percent planning to recharge groundwater through increasing supply (e.g., recharge or surface water trading) rather than reducing water demand (e.g., pumping restrictions). “No one single solution exists for California's water challenges, but there's a lot of potential to make improvements to the current system,” said Ellen Bruno, special issue co-editor and UC Berkeley agricultural economist. “Improving the allocation of water through various policy changes could help water users adapt to water scarcity.” To learn more about the impact of the ongoing drought on California agriculture, read the full Special Issue of ARE Update 25(1), UC Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, online at https://giannini.ucop. edu/publications/are-update. Due to decreased pasture forage, livestock producers have had to cull mature cows and ship more feeder cattle out of state.

A new program released by the farm credit system "Cultivate California" is educating residents about farms’ need for water. As exceptional drought conditions linger, Farm Credit’s is utilizing the program to remind people about link between water and their food is more important than ever

California is in the midst of one of its worst droughts on record. The federal government reports that showed that nearly half of the state – including the entire Central Valley – is in an exceptional drought as of mid-October. Overall, 2021 has been the ninth driest year in California since accurate records began being kept 127 years ago. Shasta Lake, the state’s largest reservoir, is at 23 percent of capacity and Lake Oroville, the second-largest reservoir, is at 22 percent of capacity.

No one knows how long these dry conditions will last, but the most recent drought lasted for 376 weeks, from December 2011 to March 2019. And the National Weather Service currently forecasts that drought conditions are likely to continue in California as a weak La Niña effect will likely see storms diverted to the Pacific Northwest this winter. And all of that is bad news for California agriculture.

Which is why Cultivate California’s program aimed at educating Californians about the connection between consumers, the food they love and the water needed to grow it is so important as its messaging reaches 16 million people a year.

Mike Wade, the program’s executive director, said getting out early this year with messaging about water was essential to counter messaging from other groups.

“Californians continue to get inundated with negative messages about farming,” Wade said. “The Cultivate California program was designed to help bolster the natural support people have for agriculture and farms and to continue providing them with facts and information about the connection between their food and the water supply.”

The need to counter misinformation about farmers’ use of water is why Farm Credit has been one of the program’s largest donors since 2018, said Curt Hudnutt, president and CEO of American AgCredit.

American AgCredit, along with CoBank, Colusa-Glenn Farm Credit, Farm Credit West, Fresno Madera Farm Credit, Golden State Farm Credit and Yosemite Farm Credit, collectively contribute $100,000 a year to help Cultivate California inform Californians. The organizations are part of the nationwide Farm Credit System – the largest provider of credit to U.S. agriculture.

“This year, many California farms had just 5 percent of their water supply this year to grow our food,” Hudnutt said. “Cultivate California is one of the most successful groups we have to educate people about the impacts the drought has on our food supply, and the need to improve our water storage to protect all of us in future droughts, and we are proud to help support them in their efforts.”

Wade said one important message this year is that farmers and irrigation districts need to have flexibility to transfer water supplies to areas in greater need without burdensome red tape. And he said improving the state’s water supply system is crucial.

“We need to look long-term, which we should have done after the last drought,” he said. “Eighteen trillion gallons of water fell in February 2019 when the last drought ended, but we didn’t have the facilities to capture it and recharge our groundwater so we would have more supply available now. Hopefully our leaders will act so next time a drought occurs we will be better prepared.”

Rob Faris, President and Chief Executive Officer Golden State Farm Credit, said it’s essential that more Californians are exposed to one of Cultivate California’s key messages – that the state’s farmers are producing more food but using much less water.

“The value of the state’s farm production increased by 38 percent between 1980 and 2015 while our farmers used 14 percent less water,” Faris said. “Farmers continually invest in irrigation technology, such as new drip and micro-irrigation systems, soil moisture monitoring, remote sensing, and computerized irrigation controls. Today, nearly half of our 8.4 million acres of irrigated farmland use drip, micro or subsurface irrigation, and more savings are on the way. Farm Credit is committed to help our members finance these improvements.”

Wade said Farm Credit’s support has been invaluable.

“The support we get from Farm Credit is amazing and critically important,” he said. “It has helped attract other supporters as well, and the support and leadership we get from Farm Credit has been instrumental in helping this program succeed.”