TOY FAIR NEW YORK 2019
HOW THE INDUSTRY CAN LEARN FROM LAST YEAR’S MISTAKES The NPD Group recaps toy performance in 2018, and discusses what it means for this year. by JULI LENNETT, vice president and industry advisor, toys, The NPD Group ACCORDING TO THE NPD GROUP’S Retail Tracking Service data*, U.S. toy retail sales generated $21.6 billion in 2018 compared to $22.0 billion in 2017. This 2 percent decline comes after four straight years of growth in the toy industry. Overall, a 2 percent decline is a solid performance after such a significant shift in the retail landscape. After the liquidation announcement of Toys ”R” Us last year, there was a great deal of speculation about what would happen to the industry, with
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THE TOY BOOK | FEBRUARY 2019 | toybook.com
some predicting double-digit declines. It’s also worth noting that annual 2018 sales are slightly higher than 2016, which experienced mid-single-digit growth. Looking at supercategory performance in order of absolute dollar growth, dolls had the strongest growth thanks in large part to L.O.L. Surprise!, Barbie, and Hatchimals. Action figures followed, with sales from Jurassic World, Marvel Universe, and Beyblade driving most of the growth. Cool Maker, Cra-Z-Art kits, and Kinetic helped
the gains in arts and crafts, while Fingerlings, Kidi, and L.O.L. Surprise! helped the youth electronics supercategory grow. The top properties for the year based on total dollar sales included L.O.L. Surprise!, Barbie, Nerf, Marvel Universe, and Hot Wheels. Performance last year was one of contrast, showing growth in the first half and declines in the second half. Dollar spend in the first two quarters totaled close to $8 billion, a 7 percent increase over last year. L.O.L. Surprise!; Marvel Universe with the Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War movies both releasing in 2018; and Jurassic World, supported by the movie release of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, fueled this growth. Toy sales in the first half of the year also benefitted as a result of the Toys ”R”Us liquidation program. The declines in the third and fourth quarters—close to 6 percent and 7 percent, respectively—were due to several factors, including Toys ”R” Us closing its doors in the U.S. (on the last day of the second quarter, June 30). Leading up to the holidays, many retailers stated that they made larger investments in toys for the fourth quarter in an
