Decarbonisation

Frazer-Nash simulation, modelling and systems engineering expert, Chris G Jones, explores an ideal future, where the freight industry is delivering substantial reductions in carbon emissions, while improving the service for the end user

Despite emitting ten times fewer greenhouse gases than road freight, rail freight isn’t being adopted more widely in the UK’s drive to Net Zero – just nine per cent of freight is moved by rail. If I order a parcel, a number of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and vans will be involved in relaying it to my door, contributing to the 21 per cent of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions created by road transport. Like nine out of ten people in the UK, my local railway station is fewer than 10,000 steps away: so, what is stopping my parcel coming by train? What are the obstacles blocking it, and how can they be overcome?

One of the key blockers is the existing operation of the rail network: both in terms of the technology available at passenger stations to offload freight, and the lack of capacity in the timetable. Add to this the fact that rail infrastructure was originally built to move heavy, bulk materials, such as coal and iron ore, between fixed points. It didn’t face today’s challenge of moving dynamic and changing freight loads of variable size between multiple origins and destinations, at pace. So what do we, as an industry, need to do? By using top down thinking, underpinned by government policy, improved rail infrastructure, and optimised rail schedules, I believe we can achieve a future where more freight can be moved by rail, benefitting both the consumer and the environment.

To arrive at our utopian freight destination, however, we will need to reach several key goals. Trains will need

to be enabled to carry freight on the existing network at the scale required; end consumers will expect this method of delivery as part of our ‘new normal’; and we will have an established automated, safe, and reliable, unmanned first and last mile transfer of freight from stations to our homes. All of these goals will require topdown thinking to be enacted in policy, and these policies to be adopted by both industry and end users. But there are things that can be done now, positive, proactive, forward thinking that can be applied to help us set out on the journey towards our low carbon vision.

Creating additional capacity As a starting point, we could explore how best to enable the additional capacity on the rail network that will allow us to accommodate a significant increase in freight trains. Undertaking studies will help us to understand where extra capacity will be needed to make the transfer of road freight onto rail possible – on east-west routes perhaps, or paralleling the M4 motorway. Making this modal shift may help to reduce road congestion, which is estimated to cost the road freight industry £3.7 billion annually. We can also investigate the potential extra capacity that HS2 could bring to the network, as it mirrors some of the routes most intensively used by HGVs. Horizon-scanning and modelling could help us explore how freight requirements and the mix of freight may evolve, allowing us to plan for the necessary infrastructure and depots of the future.

One potential solution, which could offer additional capacity more quickly than new infrastructure projects, would be to make a change in how the railway network is used. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is affecting passenger demand for rail travel – and there is the potential for demand to change long term, as businesses move to increased home working. Could Network Rail, which sells train paths, in conjunction with the Department for Transport and the Office for Rail and Road, sell a higher proportion of train paths for freight use rather than passenger use?

Using technology for timetabling – and more Once there is adequate capacity, the next challenge will be to make effective use of it.

A revolutionised timetable solution will be essential. Using a digitised approach, we can explore multi-modal planning across the end-to-end journey, looking at timetabling optimisation on a national level to understand the infrastructure constraints. By examining which rail freight routes are key for the flow of freight, their capacity, and the timings of services, the short delivery times that users demand could be achieved, using inter-rail movement of freight.

Technological advances are driving forward, and will continue to drive forward, changes to the rail network. New digital and data analytics solutions, including ‘big data’ techniques and machine learning are enabling previously unseen insights and optimisation of freight movement.

For example, REPAIR, a collaboration between Frazer-Nash and the University of Hull which won the Rail Industry Association’s RISE 2020 Innovation award, is developing a model that provides freight operators with optimised route planning information, derived by applying machine learning to historical network data. These technologies will continue to evolve: to capitalise on this, we need to start by assessing the data we have available, and where there are gaps that we need to address.

Other emerging technologies could have a part to play too. Unmanned aerial systems/ vehicles (drones) and autonomous robotic technologies, for example, could be adapted to assist in both the unloading and delivery of parcels. But for our low carbon vision to be realised, the incentives offered by central government around the ‘Green Economy’ will need radical re-invention. Visibility of cost benefits will be needed across the industry, to adequately incentivise operators to change their behaviour. Only by understanding these perspectives can we start to plug the gap that will change the way freight is moved. Rewards are there to be realised, but it will take top-down policy implementation, technological leaps in approach, and a determination to drive through a freight revolution on the railways.

The vital element here is that the freight industry, rail industry and policy makers will need to create a new co-dependent relationship that serves society. The systems of freight movement, infrastructure and fragmented scheduling have become incredibly complex. The solutions needed are radical, but the benefits are there for the taking if the industry is brave enough.

Chris G Jones is the group leader of Frazer-Nash Consultancy’s Middlesbrough office. He has a background in the delivery of simulation, modelling and systems engineering solutions for our clients, and is currently leading an award-winning programme of work for RSSB and Network Rail on the application of machine learning to predict the propagation of delays across the rail network. Chris has been instrumental in leading our work into the rail freight market over the last 12 months, and in showing how modern methods and techniques can help bring benefit to the freight industry. Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd is a leading systems and engineering technology company. With over 800 employees, Frazer-Nash works from a network of ten UK and four Australian locations. Their consultants apply their expertise to develop, enhance and protect our clients’ critical assets, systems and processes.

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