InterpNEWS Climate Crisis - HEAT Issue by InterpNEWS

Volume 10, 2021 Special ClimateCrisis Issue #7

The international heritage interpretation

Volume 10, July 2021 – Climate Crisis Special Issue #7 – Heat Wave ee-magazine. magazine.

Hi Folks. This is another important issue on the Climate Crisis to work as a companion resource for the Climate Crisis issue #6 issue I sent a few weeks ago on interpreting the drought effects being felt on the west coast and world world-wide. wide. I wanted to get this issue out quickly as the Killer Heat Wave is happening NOW. I learned that the term Climate Change was develop by a marketing consultant for the oil and gas industry to “soften up” the climate issues for energy nergy company marketing, so I’ll I’ be using the more powerful term “Climate Crisis” which is more accurate.

Our Climate Crisis Issue #6 on Drought.

In This Issue:

This is one of the re resource issues I’ll ll be using for my Climate Interpretation Courses. http://www.heritageinterp.com/interpretaive_planning_for_climate_change.html for the interpretive planning course, and http://www.heritageinterp.com/climate_change_interpretation_course.html for the introductory climate crisis course. John V. jvainterp@aol.com

Page:

- Oregon heat wave kills 63, state police say — 45 in one county. thecaliforniasun -After After COVID, could the next big killer be heat waves? Marlowe Hood -The The Killer 1911 Heat Wave That Drove People Insane Insane. Natasha Frost -Wave-7 the new name for killer heat spots spots. Gwynne Dyer -Heat Waves: 'No. 1 Weather-Related Related Killer,' Sheriff Warns Warns. Lauren Rosenblum, - Unprecedented heat wave in Pacific Northwest starts roasting the region region. Andrew Freedman -How How Does a Heat Wave Affect the Human Body? Katherine Harmon - Heat Waves and Climate Change. Russel Vose, - China could face deadly heat waves due to climate change change. David L. Chandler -Ageing Ageing population will compound deadly effects of heatwaves caused by climate change - Deadly Degrees: Why Heat Waves Kill So Quickly. Stephanie Pappas -Heat Heat Waves and Their Effect on the Economy Economy. Kimberly Amadeo -How How heat waves can scorch the U.S. economy economy. Rachel Layne -Dangerous Heat Wave Is Literally Melting Critical Infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest . Noor -The Record-Breaking Breaking Heat Wave That's Scorching The Pacific Northwest Northwest. Josie Fischels - Records smashed again: Portland infrastructure crumbles under 116 116-degree heat. Mark Puleo - Historic heat wave linked to hundreds of deaths in Pacific Northwest and Canada E. Newburger -‘Prolonged, ‘Prolonged, dangerous and historic’ heat wave bakes much of western Canada, CBS News -Finland's Finland's Arctic Lapland area swelters in record heatwave. Assoc. Press - The state of the climate in 2021. Isabelle Gerretsen - Alien Waters: Neighboring Seas Are Flowing into a Warming Arctic Ocean Ocean. Cheryl Katz - Death toll from record-breaking breaking heat wave hits 116 in Oregon – AP

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Oregon heat wave kills 63, state police say — 45 in one county by thecaliforniasun July 1, 2021

People rest at the Oregon Convention Center cooling station in Oregon, Portland on June 28, 2021, as a heatwave moves over much of the United States. (KATHRYN ELSESSER/AFP via Getty Images) Sixty-three Oregon residents have died amid a record-setting heat wave that began last Friday, according to state police. In a typical year, extreme heat is linked to the deaths of about 140 people across the entire country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But 45 of Oregon’s recent deaths were in Multnomah County, which includes Portland, alone. DEADLY HEAT WAVE OVERWHELMS HOSPITALS IN THE NORTHWEST State police said authorities had received data from the medical examiners in each of the state’s 36 counties. Marion saw the second-highest death toll with nine. Washington saw five fatalities. Clackamas saw two, and Columbia and Umatilla each saw one. WHAT IS A HEAT DOME? PACIFIC NORTHWEST BOILS UNDER ITS EFFECTS “We need people to check on their neighbors, especially seniors who may need a helping hand,” President Biden had said earlier in the day Wednesday during a meeting with state and local leaders on the Western drought. “Outdoor laborers like our farmers and construction workers are going to need frequent water breaks and shade.”

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Some of the victims were found alone in homes without air condition or fans, the Portland-based KOIN reported. Many of the victims died from hyperthermia, or dramatic rise in body temperature, the opposite of hypothermia.

The news of dozens of deaths follows reports that more than 1,000 people across the Pacific Northwest have been hospitalized in a brutal heat wave that has scorched the West Coast for more than a week. Temperatures have repeatedly hovered well above 100. The heat and lack of humidity have also raised wild fire concerns in a region prone to outbreaks. -----------------------

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After COVID, could the next big killer be heat waves? by Marlowe Hood

PHYS ORG June 23, 2021

Unprecedented killer heatwaves could be on the near horizon, updated projections show. Searing, unrelenting heat scorches large swathes of the Earth, killing millions who have no means to escape. Shade is useless, and shallow bodies of water are warmer than the blood coursing through people's veins. This is a scene from a new sci-fi fi novel, but the ssuffocating uffocating horror it describes may be closer to science than fiction, according to a draft UN report that warns of dire consequences for billions if global warming continues unchecked. Earlier climate models suggested it would take nearly another century of unabated carbon pollution to spawn heatwaves exceeding the absolute limit of human tolerance. But updated projections warn of unprecedented killer heatwaves on the near horizon, according to a 4,0004,000 pagee Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, seen exclusively by AFP before its scheduled release in February 2022. The chilling report by the UN's climate science advisory panel paints a grim grim—and and deadly—picture deadly for a warming planet.

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If the world warms by 1.5 degrees Celsius—0.4 degrees above today's level—14 percent of the population will be exposed to severe heatwaves at least once every five years, "a significant increase in heatwave magnitude", the report says. Going up half a degree would add another 1.7 billion people. Worst hit will be burgeoning megacities in the developing world that generate additional heat of their own, from Karachi to Kinshasa, Manila to Mumbai, Lagos to Manaus. It's not just thermometer readings that make a difference—heat becomes more deadly when combined with high humidity.

Even if Paris Agreement temperature targets are met, hundreds of millions of city dwellers will likely be afflicted by at least 30 deadly heat days every year by 2080.

It is easier, in other words, to survive a high temperature day if the air is bone-dry than it is to survive a lower temperature day with very high humidity. That steam-bath mix has its own yardstick, known as wet-bulb temperature. Experts say that healthy human adults cannot survive if wet-bulb temperatures (TW) exceed 35 degrees Celsius, even in the shade with an unlimited supply of drinking water. "When wet-bulb temperatures are extremely high, there is so much moisture in the air that sweating becomes ineffective at removing the body's excess heat," said Colin Raymond, lead author of a recent study on heatwaves in the Gulf.

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"At some point, perhaps after six or more hours, this will lead to organ failure and death in the absence of access to artificial cooling." Heat stroke, heart attacks We've already seen the impact of deadly, humid heat at far lower thresholds, especially among the elderly and infirm. Two heatwaves in India and Pakistan that hit 30 degrees Celsius TW in 2015 left more than 4,000 people dead. And the 2003 heatwave that killed more than 50,000 people in western Europe registered wet-bulb temperatures only in the high 20s.

A study of adaptation techniques in Hanoi found that many people wrap themselves in wet sheets before they go to to sleep during severe heatwaves.

Blistering heatwaves across the northern hemisphere in 2019—the second warmest year on record for the planet—also caused a large number of excess deaths, but wet-bulb data is still lacking. Research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) reports just over 300,000 heat-related deaths worldwide from all causes in 2019. Some 37 percent of heat-related deaths—just over 100,000—can be blamed on global warming, according to researchers led by Antonio Gasparrini at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

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In half-a-dozen countries—Brazil, Peru, Colombia, the Philippines, Kuwait and Guatemala—the percentage was 60 percent or more. Most of these deaths were probably caused by heat stroke, heart attacks and dehydration from heavy sweating, and many could likely have been prevented. Cities at risk Dangerous spikes above 27 degrees Celsius TW have already more than doubled since 1979, according to Raymond's findings. His study predicts wet-bulb temperatures will "regularly exceed" 35 degrees Celsius TW at some locations in the next several decades if the planet warms 2.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. Human activity has driven global temperatures up 1.1 degrees Celsius so far.

In some developing countries, economic development is not keeping up with the cost of cooling the population.

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for capping the increase at "well below" two degrees Celsius, and 1.5 degrees if possible. Even if those targets are met, hundreds of millions of city dwellers in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as South and Southeast Asia, will likely be afflicted by at least 30 deadly heat days every year by 2080, the IPCC report says.

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"In these regions, the population of cities is growing dramatically and the threat of deadly heat is looming," said Steffen Lohrey, lead author of a study, still under peer review, cited in the report. His calculations, Lohrey added, do not even take into account the so-called urban heat island effect, which adds 1.5 degrees Celsius on average during heatwaves compared to surrounding areas. Heat-absorbing tarmac and buildings, exhaust from air conditioning, and the sheer density of urban living all contribute to this increase in cities. Heatwave 'hotspot' Sub-Saharan Africa is especially vulnerable to lethal heatwaves, in large part because it is least prepared to cope with them. "Both real-world observations and climate modelling show sub-Saharan Africa as a hotspot for heatwave activity," said Luke Harrington, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute. In central China and central Asia, meanwhile, "extreme wet-bulb temperatures are expected to approach and possibly exceed physiological thresholds for human adaptability", the IPCC warns.

Crucial to mortality rates is the ability of a population to adapt. The Mediterranean is also vulnerable to deadly incursions of hot weather. "In Europe, up to 200 million people will be at high risk of heat stress by mid-century if the world warms up to two degrees Celsius until 2100," the report says. Crucial to mortality rates is the ability of the population to adapt, explains Jeff Stanaway, a researcher at IHME.

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"There is a greater sensitivity to heat in western Europe than in North America," he told AFP. "That's because in North America everyone has air conditioning and well-insulated, modern buildings. It's just a difference in infrastructure." 'Cooling gap' But as with so many climate change impacts, the effects of heatwaves are not felt evenly by all. In some developing countries, economic development is not keeping up with the cost of cooling the population, exposing a race between warming and the capacity to adapt to it. One researcher has dubbed this the "global cooling gap".

Drought risk worldwide.

A study of adaptation techniques in the Vietnamese capital Hanoi found that many people don't use the air conditioners in their bedrooms because they cost too much to run. Some wrap themselves in wet sheets before they go to sleep instead. Ultimately, high heat will destroy more lives indirectly rather than by reaching levels at which the body simply shuts down, the IPCC report suggests. Higher temperatures will spread disease vectors, reduce crop yields and nutrient values, slash labour productivity and make outdoor manual labour a life-threatening activity.

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Experts say the worst impacts could be avoided if global warming is capped as close to 1.5 degrees Celsius as possible, in line with the Paris Agreement. But even then, with temperatures rising twice the global average in many regions, some severe impacts are baked in. "Today's children will witness more days with extreme heat when manual labour outside is physiologically impossible," the IPCC report warns.

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The Killer 1911 Heat Wave That Drove People Insane NATASHA FROST

Railway tracks buckled, people slept in parks, hundreds died, while others tried to die as the heat and humidity became unbearable. In July 1911, along the East Coast of the United States, temperatures climbed into the 90s and stayed there for days and days, killing 211 people in New York alone. At the end of Pike Street, in Lower Manhattan, a young man leapt off a pier and into the water, after hours of trying to nap in a shady corner. As he jumped, he called: “I can’t stand this any longer.” Meanwhile, up in Harlem, an overheated laborer attempted to throw himself in front of a train, and had to be wrestled into a straitjacket by police.

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In an age before air conditioning or widespread use of electric fans, many struggled to cope with this multi-day deadly heat.. June had been easy enough, but a sweep of hot, dry air from the southern plains suppressed any relief from the ocean breeze. In Providence, Rhode Island, temperatures temperat rose 11 degrees in a single half hour. New York City and Philadelphia became sweltering centers of chaos, while all across New England, railway tracks buckled, mail service was suspended and people p perished beneath the sun. Total death tolls are estimated to have topped 2000 in just a few weeks. Though temperatures never quite broke 100 degrees in the first two weeks of July in New York, the city was poorly equipped to handle the heat, and the humidity that went with it. Poor ventilation and cramped living spaces exacerbated the problem, ultimately leading to the deaths of old and young alike, with children as small as two weeks old becoming overcome by the heat.

A man resting under the shade of a tree in Battery Park, 1911. (Credit: Bain News Service/The Library of Congress)

In the peaks of the wave, people abandoned their apartments for the cool grass of New York’s public spaces, napping beneath trees in Central Park or seeking shade in Batt Battery ery Park. In Boston, 5,000 people chose to spend the night on Boston Common rather than risk suffocation in their own homes. Babies wailed through the night—or or failed to wake up at all. The streets were anarchic: People reportedly ran mad in the heat (one drunken fool, described by the New York Tribune as “partly crazed by the heat,” attacked a policeman with a meat cleaver), while horses collapsed and were left to rot by the side of the road. Around July 7, when temperatures returned to ordinary levels of July sweat, the humidity remained high. It was this, reported the New York Times Times,, that was responsible for so many of the casualties, “catching its victims ctims in an exhausted state and killing all of them within the hours between 7 and 10 a.m.” The New York Tribune phrased it still more dramatically dramatically: “The monstrous devil that had pressed New York under his burning thumb for five days could not go without one last curse, and when the temperature dropped called humidity to its aid.”

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Children licking blocks of ice to keep cool during the heat wave. (Credit: Bain News Service/The Library of Congress)

Outside of New York, however, temperatures had climbed higher still. In Boston, people struggled in 104 degree heat; in Bangor, Maine and Nashua, New Hampshire, it reached a record-breaking record 106. In Woodbury, New York, a farmer left his field when the outsi outside de temperature reached high enough to melt candle wax. People didn’t just die from exhaustion or heat stroke, but from their efforts to escape the sweltering air. Some 200 people died from drowning as they dove head first into the ocean, ponds, rivers and lakes. City authorities did what they could to handle the heat, including flushing fire hydrants to cool off streets. In Hartford, Connecticut, people rode around on free ferries and trolleys, trying to catch some kind of a breeze, while a local brewer don donated ated water barrels to parks. Factories were closed and mail delivery was suspended as transport went haywire: boats oozed pitch and railways buckled in the heat. “The tar surface on some streets is boiling like syrup in the sun,” reported the Hartford Courant,, “making things sticky for vehicles as well as pedestrians.”

A man using water from a fountain to cool his head in the intense New York City heat. (Credit: Bain News Service/The Library of Congress)

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At the end of the first week, even a terrific thunderstorm did little to alleviate the discomfort. In New York, the Times reported, it was simply a few showers “accompanied by much thunder, which rumbled as early as 5:45 a.m., giving promise of big things, and then disappeared into the ocean.” In Boston, the storm had disastrous consequences, damaging already charred property throughout the town and killing those who strayed into its path. A second thunderstorm, around the 13th, finally brought temperatures back down to manageable levels. As it did so, however, five more people died from lightning strikes. The record-breaking heat wave was over, but at still greater cost for the exhausted, grieving people of New England.

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Wave-7 the new name for killer heat spots By Gwynne DyerJuly 6, 2021

First the ‘heat dome’, with temperatures in the mid-to-high forties Celsius in many parts of western North America for up to a week (49.6°C in Lytton, BC). Then, when the forests were tinder-dry, came the wildfires (which wiped Lytton out). From northern California to northern BC, the records were being broken every day. The extreme temperatures were unprecedented, but the weathermen had an explanation of sorts: a ‘heat dome’ that trapped hot air in the same area for a long time while the heat kept rising. They didn’t speculate beyond that because it would get them into a new and unproven hypothesis, but many meteorologists know that this could be our first glimpse of a new normal in which killer heat waves become regular events. The proposed name for these new, lengthy super-hot spells is ‘wave-7′ or ‘wave-5′ events, because the heat waves strike simultaneously in several large regions around the planet. ‘Wave-7’’, the likelier candidate in this case, hits western North America, western or central Europe, and western Asia all at the same time. Wave-7 is still a hypothesis, not a proven fact, but we had just that pattern of extreme heat in late June. The temperatures were in the mid-to-high 40°s in western Canada and the US Pacific northwest for four consecutive days.

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Temperatures in western and central Europe, as usual, were not so extreme, but they were hitting 35-40° in central Europe and the Balkans (plus a killer tornado in the Czech Republic, and the Mediterranean Sea is 3°5°C warmer than normal). And in western Asia the heat reached the mid-40s in most of Pakistan and the high 30s all over Siberia, with peaks of 48°C in Jacobabad and Verkhoyansk. (The latter is on the Arctic Circle). Record summer temperatures like this were foreseen as a consequence of global warming, but they were not predicted to arrive for another decade or so. The climate models are good at broad numbers like the average global temperature, but not yet good at regional effects, so the ‘wave’ pattern came as a complete surprise.

Once a new pattern emerges, however, the climate scientists are all over it. They already understood the workings of the jet stream; all they had to do was work out how adding a lot of heat to the system would change things. It may all be connected to the jet stream, a high-altitude, high-speed ‘river’ of air blowing from west to east around the planet. It used to flow so fast and straight that eastbound airliners cut an hour off their eastbound trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific flights by hitching a ride on it. But they don’t do that so much now, because the jet stream has slowed down and wanders all over the place. It has slowed because it gets its energy from the temperature difference between the Arctic air mass and the much warmer air of the temperate zone. In fact, the jet stream is the boundary between the two. But the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, so the difference in temperature – and the amount of energy available – is less than before. As the jet stream slows, it meanders in bigger and bigger loops, like a big, slow-moving river crossing a flat plain. These huge loops – ‘Rossby waves’, as they are called – tend to get ‘stuck’ for a long time. Some pull Arctic air far to the south and hold it there, like last winter’s Big Freeze in Texas. Others pull hot southern air farther north than usual, like last month – and they too hang around for a long time. The two kinds of loops alternate along the northern jet stream all the way around the planet like beads on a necklace. Every second loop is ‘hot’ when this pattern kicks in, so it follows that heat waves would be happening in sync in several different continents – as they currently seem to be.

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This is all quite new science, and still open to challenge. But over the past two decades the same pattern of seven stalled peaks and lows over the same regions – ‘wave-7’ – has lasted seven times for more than two weeks. Before 2000, it never happened. If the ‘wave’ hypothesis is correct, then these killer heat waves will become more common in the northern hemisphere as Arctic temperatures soar and the jet stream slows, sometimes extending all the way from latitude 30°N to latitude 60°N. We once believed that severe heating would not afflict the rich countries of the temperate zone until much later than the tropics and sub-tropics, but that may be wrong. We already have killer heat waves with the global average temperature up by only +1.1° C. It’s bound to go to at least +1.5°C, even if we do everything right from now on.

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Heat Waves: 'No. 1 Weather-Related Killer,' Sheriff Warns With area temperatures soaring, county Sheriff's Department and city Department of Water and Power issue advisories. Lauren Rosenblum, Patch Staff

Heat is the No. 1 weather-related killer. On average, more than 1,500 people in the U.S. die each year from excessive heat. This number is greater than the 30-year mean annual number of deaths due to tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and lightning combined. In the 40-year period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the effects of heat and solar radiation. In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. In the heat wave of 1995 more than 700 deaths in the Chicago, Illinois area were attributed to this event. And in August 2003, a record heat wave in Europe claimed an estimated 50,000 lives. North American summers are hot; most summers see heat waves in one section or another of the United States. East of the Rockies, they tend to combine both high temperature and high humidity although some of the worst have been catastrophically dry. Additional detail on how heat impacts the human body is provided under "The Hazards of Excessive Heat" heading. NOAA's Watch, Warning, and Advisory Products for Extreme Heat Each National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) can issue the following heat-related products as conditions warrant:

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Excessive Heat Outlook: when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3 to 7 days. An outlook is used to indicate that a heat event may develop. It is intended to provide information to those who need considerable lead time to prepare for the event, such as public utilities, emergency management and public health officials. Excessive Heat Watch: when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 12 to 48 hours. A watch is used when the risk of a heat wave has increased, but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their plans in motion can do so, such as established individual city excessive heat event mitigation plans. Excessive Heat Warning/Advisory: when an excessive heat event is expected in the next 36 hours. These products are issued when an excessive heat event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurrence. The warning is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property. An advisory is for less serious conditions that cause significant discomfort or inconvenience and, if caution is not taken, could lead to a threat to life and/or property. How Forecasters Decide Whether to Issue Excessive Heat Products

National Weather Service Heat Index Based Guidance The "Heat Index" (HI) is sometimes referred to as the "apparent temperature". The HI, given in degrees F, is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity (RH) is added to the actual air temperature. To find the HI, look at the Heat Index Chart. As an example, if the air temperature is 96°F (found on the top of the table) and the RH is 65% (found on the left of the table), the HI-or how hot it really feels-is 121°F. This is at the intersection of the 96° column and the 65% row. IMPORTANT: Since HI values were devised for shady, light wind conditions, EXPOSURE TO FULL SUNSHINE CAN INCREASE HI VALUES BY UP TO 15°F. Also, STRONG WINDS, PARTICULARLY WITH VERY HOT, DRY AIR, CAN BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS.

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Note on the Heat Index Chart shaded zone above 105°F. This corresponds to a level of HI that may cause increasingly severe heat disorders with continued exposure and/or physical activity. NOAA's Heat Alert Procedures based mainly on Heat Index Values The National Weather Service will initiate alert procedures when the Heat Index is expected to exceed 105°110°F (depending on local climate) for at least two consecutive days. The procedures are: • Include Heat Index values in zone and city forecasts. • Issue Special Weather Statements and/or Public Information Statements presenting a detailed discussion of: Extent of the hazard including Heat Index values, who is most at risk, and safety rules for reducing the risk. • Assist state/local health officials in preparing Civil Emergency Messages in severe heat waves. Meteorological information from Special Weather Statements will be included as well as more detailed medical information, advice, and names and telephone numbers of health officials. • Release all of the above information to the media and over NOAA All-Hazard Weather Radio. Heat Health Watch/Warning System Recent research has shown that a heat index threshold does not fully account for a variety of factors which impact health including the impact of consecutive stressful days on human health, the time of year, or the location where excessive heat events occur. For example, studies indicate large urban areas are particularly sensitive to heat early in the summer season. Based on this research, NOAA/NWS has supported the implementation of new Heat Health Watch/Warning System (HHWS) that its forecasters use as guidance in producing their daily warning and forecast products. This system was developed in conjunction with researchers at the University of Delaware. As of summer 2007, about 20 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) now utilize the HHWS as additional guidance in their forecast decision-making process. The NWS goal is to expand the HHWS coverage to include approximately 70 vulnerable urban cities across the continental U.S. with mostly populations of 500,000 or more. The HHWS, tailored for each urban locale, is the first and only meteorological tool based upon the occurrence of certain air masses that have historically been associated with elevated mortality levels. Air masses consider the entire "umbrella" of air over a region, rather than a single meteorological variable such as the heat index. HHWS consider numerous meteorological, seasonal, and social factors, and are based upon actual human health responses. Through the use of, it is possible to predict the likelihood of excess mortality given the synoptic conditions present at specific cities, the number of consecutive days an oppressive air mass is present, and the time of year the event occurs. Currently, those urban areas with HHWS coverage include Philadelphia, PA; Seattle, WA; Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston. TX; Phoenix and Yuma, AZ; Baltimore, MD; Washington, D.C.; Chicago, IL; St. Louis, MO Cincinnati and Dayton, Ohio; New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, Alexandria, Shreveport and Monroe, LA.; Memphis, TN; Jackson, Meridian and Tupelo, MS; Little Rock and Pine Bluff, AR; Portland, OR; Minneapolis, MN; San Francisco and San Jose, CA.

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The NWS forecaster analyzes the HHWS guidance, as well as heat index values, time of year and expected length of the heat event, collaborate with neighboring WFOs as needed, and then decide which, if any, excessive heat product to issue. If an Outlook, Watch, Warning, or Advisory will be issued, the forecaster will notify the local health department and/or emergency management agency to insure that they are aware of the excessive heat forecast. The Hazards of Excessive Heat How Heat Affects the Body Human Human bodies dissipate heat by varying the rate and depth of blood circulation, by losing water through the skin and sweat glands, and-as the last extremity is reached-by panting, when blood is heated above 98.6 degrees. The heart begins to pump more blood, blood vessels dilate to accommodate the increased flow, and the bundles of tiny capillaries threading through the upper layers of skin are put into operation. The body's blood is circulated closer to the skin's surface, and excess heat drains off into the cooler atmosphere. At the same time, water diffuses through the skin as perspiration. The skin handles about 90 percent of the body's heat dissipating function.

Sweating, by itself, does nothing to cool the body, unless the water is removed by evaporation, and high relative humidity retards evaporation. The evaporation process itself works this way: the heat energy required to evaporate the sweat is extracted from the body, thereby cooling it. Under conditions of high temperature (above 90 degrees) and high relative humidity, the body is doing everything it can to maintain 98.6 degrees inside. The heart is pumping a torrent of blood through dilated circulatory vessels; the sweat glands are pouring liquid-including essential dissolved chemicals, like sodium and chloride onto the surface of the skin.

InterpNEWS Too Much Heat

Heat disorders generally have to do with a reduction or collapse of the body's ability to shed heat by circulatory changes and sweating, or a chemical (salt) imbalance caused by too much sweating. When heat gain exceeds the level the body can remove, or when the body cannot compensate for fluids and salt lost through perspiration, the temperature of the body's inner core begins to rise and heat-related illness may develop.

Ranging in severity, heat disorders share one common feature: the individual has overexposed or over exercised for his age and physical condition in the existing thermal environment. Sunburn, with its ultraviolet radiation burns, can significantly retard the skin's ability to shed excess heat. Studies indicate that, other things being equal, the severity of heat disorders tend to increase with age-heat cramps in a 17-year-old may be heat exhaustion in someone 40, and heat stroke in a person over 60. Acclimatization has to do with adjusting sweat-salt concentrations, among other things. The idea is to lose enough water to regulate body temperature, with the least possible chemical disturbance. Cities Pose Special Hazards The stagnant atmospheric conditions of the heat wave trap pollutants in urban areas and add the stresses of severe pollution to the already dangerous stresses of hot weather, creating a health problem of undiscovered dimensions. A map of heat-related deaths in St. Louis during 1966, for example, shows a heavier concentration in the crowded alleys and towers of the inner city, where air quality would also be poor during a heat wave.

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The high inner-city death rates also can be read as poor access to air-conditioned rooms. While air conditioning may be a luxury in normal times, it can be a lifesaver during heat wave conditions. The cost of cool air moves steadily higher, adding what appears to be a cruel economic side to heat wave fatalities. Indications from the 1978 Texas heat wave suggest that some elderly people on fixed incomes, many of them in buildings that could not be ventilated without air conditioning, found the cost too high, turned off their units, and ultimately succumbed to the stresses of heat.

Children, Adults, and Pets Enclosed in Parked Vehicles Are at Great Risk Each year children die from hyperthermia as a result of being left enclosed in parked vehicles. This can occur even on a mild day. Studies have shown that the temperature inside a parked vehicle can rise rapidly to a dangerous level for children, adults, and pets. Leaving the windows slightly open does not significantly decrease the heating rate. The effects can be more severe on children because their bodies warm at a faster rate than adults.

InterpNEWS Excessive Heat Cautions and Safety Tips Preventing Heat-Related Illness

Elderly persons, small children, chronic invalids, those on certain medications or drugs (especially tranquilizers and anticholinergics), and persons with weight and alcohol problems are particularly susceptible to heat reactions, especially during heat waves in areas where a moderate climate usually prevails. Heat Wave Safety Tips Slow down. Strenuous activities should be reduced, eliminated, or rescheduled to the coolest time of the day. Individuals at risk should stay in the coolest available place, not necessarily indoors. Dress for summer. Lightweight light-colored clothing reflects heat and sunlight, and helps your body maintain normal temperatures. Put less fuel on your inner fires. Foods (like proteins) that increase metabolic heat production also increase water loss.

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Drink plenty of water or other non-alcohol fluids. Your body needs water to keep cool. Drink plenty of fluids even if you don't feel thirsty. Persons who (1) have epilepsy or heart, kidney, or liver disease, (2) are on fluid restrictive diets or (3) have a problem with fluid retention should consult a physician before increasing their consumption of fluids. Do not drink alcoholic beverages. Do not take salt tablets unless specified by a physician. Spend more time in air-conditioned places. Air conditioning in homes and other buildings markedly reduces danger from the heat. If you cannot afford an air conditioner, spending some time each day (during hot weather) in an air conditioned environment affords some protection. Don't get too much sun. Sunburn makes the job of heat dissipation that much more difficult Never leave persons, especially children, and pets in a closed, parked vehicle Know These Heat Disorder Symptoms SUNBURN: Redness and pain. In severe cases swelling of skin, blisters, fever, headaches. First Aid: Ointments for mild cases if blisters appear and do not break. If breaking occurs, apply dry sterile dressing. Serious, extensive cases should be seen by physician. HEAT CRAMPS: Painful spasms usually in muscles of legs and abdomen possible. Heavy sweating. First Aid: Firm pressure on cramping muscles, or gentle massage to relieve spasm. Give sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue use. HEAT EXHAUSTION: Heavy sweating, weakness, skin cold, pale and clammy. Pulse thready. Normal temperature possible. Fainting and vomiting. First Aid: Get victim out of sun. Lay down and loosen clothing. Apply cool, wet cloths. Fan or move victim to air conditioned room. Sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue use. If vomiting continues, seek immediate medical attention. HEAT STROKE (or sunstroke): High body temperature (106° F or higher). Hot dry skin. Rapid and strong pulse. Possible unconsciousness. First Aid: HEAT STROKE IS A SEVERE MEDICAL EMERGENCY. SUMMON EMERGENCY MEDICAL ASSISTANCE OR GET THE VICTIM TO A HOSPITAL IMMEDIATELY. DELAY CAN BE FATAL. Move the victim to a cooler environment Reduce body temperature with cold bath or sponging. Use extreme caution. Remove clothing, use fans and air conditioners. If temperature rises again, repeat process. Do not give fluids. Persons on salt restrictive diets should consult a physician before increasing their salt intake.

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*For more information contact your local American Red Cross Chapter. Ask to enroll in a first aid course. Community Guidance: Preparing for and Responding to Excessive Heat Events The "Excessive Heat Events Guidebook" was developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2006, in collaboration with NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). This guidebook provides best practices that have been employed to save lives during heat waves in different urban areas, and provides a menu of options that communities can use in developing their own mitigation plans. Worker Safety: Outdoor workers can be especially vulnerable to excessive heat. See Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) resources and recommended practices (planning, prevention, and response) when working under hot conditions, such as drinking fluids, changing work/rest schedules to lengthen breaks, cooling down in shade, and looking out for co-workers, particularly those who work alone. Check weather forecasts ahead of time so that you can be better prepared. Produced as a cooperative effort of NOAA's National Weather Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Occupational Safety and Health Administration, Center for Disease Control, and the American Red Cross.

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Unprecedented heat wave in Pacific Northwest starts roasting the region Andrew Freedman June 25, 2021

The most severe heat wave on record in the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada kicks into high gear Friday and will intensify throughout the weekend and into next week. Why it matters: Heat waves like this one are significant public health threats, particularly in areas like the Northwest, where many people lack air conditioning. Extreme heat tends to be the biggest weather-related killer each year in the U.S., outranking even tornadoes and hurricanes. Numerous daily, monthly and all-time high temperature records will be shattered. More than 13 million residents from Northern California through much of Oregon and Washington, and eastward to Idaho are under excessive heat warnings. The big picture: Extreme heat events are directly tied to human-caused global warming, with studies showing that severe heat events are now on average about 3°F to 5°F hotter than they would be without emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning, deforestation and other activities. Some recent studies have shown that certain extreme heat events could not have occurred without the added boost from human-caused warming. What they're saying: NWS forecasters in Seattle said Friday they “have never seen Pacific Northwest data like this.”The National Weather Service, which is typically cautious in its word choices with the public, is not holding back in its messaging this time around. The agency's forecast office in Portland, for example, issued a forecast discussion Friday morning stating, "...UNPRECEDENTED HEAT WAVE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK..." Agency social media accounts have also been relaying hot weather safety tips and directing people to cooling shelters. Driving the news: A highly unusual weather pattern is setting up over the Pacific Northwest, with a recordstrong high-pressure area aloft — known as a "heat dome" — settling over the region and intensifying through Monday. Such a heat dome, if it reaches the strength that computer models are projecting, would yield temperature departures from average of between 25 and 45°F across multiple states and British Columbia.

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Weather balloons launched from NWS offices in the Northwest Friday found the freezing level at or above 18,000 feet in some areas, prompting concerns about meltwater runoff from unusually warm weather affecting mountain snow fields and glaciers. This heat, combined with a worsening drought, will raise the risk of wildfires across multiple Western states. It will also cause power demand to spike. By the numbers: Virtually all of Oregon and Washington, plus portions of California, Idaho and Montana, are under excessive heat watches and warnings. This is the case even in downtown Portland and Seattle. Portland, Oregon, is forecast to reach low triple-digits on Saturday through at least Monday. The city is likely to break its June heat record, its record for most 100-degree days in June, and surpass its all-time high of 107°F, perhaps by a few degrees. In Seattle, where the average high temperature this time of year is in the low-to-mid 70s, the National Weather Service (NWS) predicts a high of 102°F on Sunday, which would break the record for the city's hottest temperature during the month of June. Seattle's all-time high temperature record is 103°F, and the city has only seen three 100-degree days in its history. Medford, Oregon and Spokane, Washington, are also predicted to shatter their all-time high temperature record by a few degrees. The heat will be most intense in inland areas of Washington and Oregon. There, temperatures are forecast to soar to between 100°F and 115°F on Saturday through Tuesday, and remain extremely hot through much of next week. Nearly every location along the I-5 corridor from Northern California to Washington is likely to set a monthly or even an all-time high temperature record during this event. Canada will also see extreme heat, and it's possible the country's all-time high temperature record of 113°F (45°C) will be equaled or eclipsed. How it works: One of the reasons why the Pacific Northwest will get so hot is that the core of the heat dome will be parked to the north-northeast of the region for several days. Due to the clockwise flow of air around the high, this will produce surges of air moving from high-to-lower elevation areas in Idaho, Washington and Oregon. When air sinks, such as when it moves out of mountainous regions and into valleys, it compresses, increasing temperatures and getting drier in the process

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How Does a Heat Wave Affect the Human Body

Some might like it hot, but extreme heat can overpower the human body. An expert from the CDC explains how heat kills and why fans are worthless in the face of truly high temperatures

By Katherine Harmon

Climate change promises to bring with it longer, hotter summers to many places on the planet. This June turned out to be the fourth-hottest month ever recorded—globally—scientists are reporting. With more heat waves on the horizon, and a big one currently sweeping much of the U.S., the risk of heat-related health problems has also been on the rise. Heat exhaustion is a relatively common reaction to severe heat and can include symptoms such as dizziness, headache and fainting. It can usually be treated with rest, a cool environment and hydration (including refueling of electrolytes, which are necessary for muscle and other body functions). Heat stroke is more severe and requires medical attention—it is often accompanied by dry skin, a body temperature above 103 degrees Fahrenheit, confusion and sometimes unconsciousness. Extreme heat is only blamed for an average of 688 deaths each year in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). But when sustained heat waves hit a region, the other health ramifications can be serious, including sunstroke and even major organ damage due to heat. The Chicago heat wave in the summer of 1995 killed an estimated 692 people and sent at least 3,300 people to the emergency room. An observational study of some of those patients revealed that 28 percent who were diagnosed at the time with severe heat stroke had died within a year of being admitted to the hospital, and most who initially survived the high temperatures had "permanent loss of independent function," according to a 1998 study of the heat wave, published in Archives of Internal Medicine.

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As temperatures linger above our bodies' own healthy internal temperature for longer periods of time, will we humans be able to take the heat? We spoke with Mike McGeehin, director of the CDC's Environmental Hazards and Health Effects Program, to find out just why—and how—a warm, sunny summer day can do us in. How do humans cope with hot, hot weather? The two ways we cope with heat are by perspiring and breathing. So is it the heat or humidity that is the real killer?

The humidity is a huge factor. If you have tremendously high temperatures and high humidity, a person will be sweating but the sweat won't be drying on the skin. That’s why it's not just heat but the combination of heat and humidity that matters. That combination results in a number called the apparent temperature or "how it feels". Obviously there are thresholds for both temperature and humidity above which we see an increase in death, and it's going to be a different temperature in Phoenix than it's going to be in Chicago. The other major factor in terms of temperature that causes both mortality and morbidity is the temperature that it falls to in the evening. If the temperature remains elevated overnight, that's when we see the increase in deaths. The body becomes overwhelmed because it doesn't get the respite that it needs. What kind of impact does extreme, sustained heat have on the human body? The systems in the human body that enable it to adapt to heat become overwhelmed. When a person is exposed to heat for a very long time, the first thing that shuts down is the ability to sweat. We know that when perspiration is dried by the air there is a cooling effect on the body. Once a person stops perspiring, in very short order a person can move from heat exhaustion to heat stroke. What happens in the transition from heat exhaustion to heat stroke? It begins with perspiring profusely, and when that shuts down, the body becomes very hot. Eventually that begins to affect the brain, and that's when people begin to get confused and can lose consciousness.

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The analogy we use is if you're driving a car and you notice that the temperature light comes on, what's happening is the cooling system of the car is becoming overwhelmed. If you turn off the car and let it cool eventually you can start driving again. But if you continue to drive the car, the problem goes beyond the cooling system to affect the engine, and eventually the car will stop. What other areas of the body does this extreme overheating affect? As the body temperature increases very rapidly, the central nervous system and circulatory system are impacted. In places where there have been prolonged heat exposures, there is probably a broad impact on many organ systems. From heat waves that have been studied, like in Chicago, there are increases in emergency department visits and hospital stays for medical crises that are not normally associated with heat, such as kidney problems. But it really hasn't been studied very much. One of the reasons for that is the main focus of the studies has been on mortality from heat waves, and there hasn't been that much focus on morbidity. That would take looking at people who are hospitalized from heat exhaustion or heat stroke and following them into the future. Before someone gets full-blow heat stroke, what are the body's early reactions to excessive heat? Heat rash and muscle cramps are early signs of people being overwhelmed by heat. If those aren't dealt with, it can lead to more severe symptoms. Cramping of muscles can be for a number of different issues, including electrolytes not getting to the muscles. People should be aware that their skin turning red and dry are indicators that heat is impacting them. Who is the most vulnerable to extended high temperatures? We know the risk factors for dying from heat are urban dwellers who are elderly, isolated and don't have access to air conditioning. Obese people are at increased risk as are people on certain medications. And people who are exercising or working in the heat, who don't meet those criteria, can be at risk.

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What medications can make the body more susceptible to extreme heat? In the study from the 1995 Chicago heat wave, we found that diuretics for high blood pressure were some that did, and beta blockers—a number of studies showed that people taking them could be at increased risk. There are some studies that have shown that certain mental health medications may impact a person's ability to deal with the heat. But that's a difficult one to get at. When you look at the number of people who die in a heat wave and the number of people who are taking those medications, the numbers can get pretty small pretty quickly. What's the hottest temperature a healthy human can tolerate? We don't know that—no one knows that. There are different humans, different humidities, different types of temperature. Have we not evolved to cope with super hot weather? Certainly society has evolved in dealing with the heat—and that has been in the development of air conditioners. The number-one factor that ameliorates death from heat is access to air conditioning. And I've read that fans don't work to prevent overheating in really hot temperatures… Not only does it not work, it actually makes it worse. We compare it to a convection oven. By blowing hot air on a person, it heats them up rather than cools them down. Are modern humans neglecting to do something our ancestors did to survive the heat? I think it's always been a problem. There's history over hundreds of years of people dying of heat. Philadelphia in 1776 had a major heat wave that caused deaths. We're also living to older ages, and we're more urban now than we have been in the history of the human species. That intense crowding can combine with the heat island effect in big cities. Our elderly people are also more isolated than they have been in the past, so those factors can play a part, too. The IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the thing that they are most comfortable in predicting, that the science is most solid for, is the increase in many parts of the world in the duration and intensity of heat waves.

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Heat Waves and Climate Change. Russel Vose, Across the globe, hot days are getting hotter and more frequent, while we’re experiencing fewer cold days. Over the past decade, daily record high temperatures have occurred twice as often as record lows across the continental United States, up from a near 1:1 ratio in the 1950s. Heat waves are becoming more common, common and intense heatwaves are more frequent in the U.S. West, although in many parts of the country the 1930s still holds the record for number of heat waves (caused by the Dust Bowl and other factors). By midcentury, if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly curtailed, th the coldest and warmest daily temperatures are expected to increase by at least 5 degrees F in most areas by mid mid-century century rising to 10 degrees F by late century. The National Climate Assessment est estimates 20-30 30 more days over 90 degrees F in most areas by mid-century. century. A recent study projects that the annual number of days with a heat index above 100 degrees F will double,, and days with a heat index above 105 degrees F will triple, nationwide, when compared to the end of the 20th century.

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NOTES Projected changes in the number of days per year with a maximum temperature above 90°F and a minimum temperature below 32°F in the contiguous United States. Changes are the difference between the average for mid-century (2036–2065) 2065) and the average for near near-present (1976–2005) 2005) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). This map depicts a weighted multi multi-modal modal mean of 32 climate model projections. SOURCE CICS-NC and NOAA AA NCEI by Russel Vose, available in Climate Science Special Report. Report

Threats Posed by Extreme Heat Extreme heat can increase the risk of other types of disasters. Heat can exacerbate drought, drought and hot dry conditions can in turn create wildfire conditions. In cities, buildings roads and infrastructure can be heated to 50 to 90 degrees hotter than the air while natural surfaces remain closer to air temperatures. The heat island effect is most intense during the day, but the slow release of heat from the infrastructure overnight (or an atmospheric heat island) can keep cities much hotter than surrounding areas. Rising temperatures across the country poses a threat to people, ecosystems and the economy.

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Human Health

Extreme heat is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States, killing an average of more than 600 per year from 1999-2009, more than all other impacts (except hurricanes) combined. The Billion Dollar Weather Disasters database compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration lists heat waves as four of the top 10 deadliest U.S. disasters since 1980. Heat stress occurs in humans when the body is unable to cool itself effectively. Normally, the body can cool itself through sweating, but when humidity is high, sweat will not evaporate as quickly, potentially leading to heat stroke. High humidity and elevated nighttime temperatures are likely key ingredients in causing heatrelated illness and mortality. When there’s no break from the heat at night, it can cause discomfort and lead to health problems, especially for those who are low income or elderly, if access to cooling is limited. Hot days are also associated with increases in heat-related illnesses including cardiovascular and respiratory complications, kidney disease, and can be especially harmful to outdoor workers, children, the elderly, and low-income households. In extreme temperatures, air quality is also affected. Hot and sunny days can increase ozone levels, which in turn affects NOX levels. In addition, greater use of heating and cooling of indoor spaces requires more electricity and, depending on the electricity source, can emit more of other types of pollution, including particulates. These increases in ozone and particulate matter can pose serious risks to people, particularly the same vulnerable groups directly impacted by heat mentioned above. Agriculture

High temperatures at night can be particularly damaging to agriculture. Some crops require cool night temperatures, and heat stress for livestock rises when animals are unable to cool off at night. Heat-stressed cattle can experience declines in milk production, slower growth, and reduced conception rates. Energy

While higher summer temperatures increase electricity demand for cooling, at the same time, it also can lower the ability of transmission lines to carry power, possibly leading to electricity reliability issues during heat waves. Although warmer winters will reduce the need for heating, modeling suggests that total U.S. energy use will increase in a warmer future. In addition, as rivers and lakes warm, their capacity for absorbing waste heat from power plants declines. This can reduce the thermal efficiency of power production, which makes it difficult for power plants to comply with environmental regulations regarding their cooling water.

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How to Build Resilience A set of strategies to build resilience to extreme heat are laid out in our publication, “Resilience Strategies for Extreme Heat.” Some strategies include: - Creating heat preparedness plans, identifying vulnerable populations, and opening cooling centers during extreme heat. - Installing cool and green roofs and cool pavement to reduce the urban heat island effect.

- Planting trees to provide shade and evapotranspiration cools the air around trees.

- Pursuing energy efficiency to reduce demand on the electricity grid, especially during heat waves. ----------------------------------

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China could face deadly heat waves due to climate change One of the world’s most densely populated regions may push the boundaries of habitability by the end of this century, study finds. David L. Chandler | MIT News Office

Caption: “This spot is just going to be the hottest spot for deadly heat waves in the future, especially under climate change,” says Professor Elfatih Eltahir. A region that holds one of the biggest concentrations of people on Earth could be pushing against the boundaries of habitability by the latter part of this century, a new study shows. Research has shown that beyond a certain threshold of temperature and humidity, a person cannot survive unprotected in the open for extended periods — as, for example, farmers must do. Now, a new MIT study shows that unless drastic measures are taken to limit climate-changing emissions, China’s most populous and agriculturally important region could face such deadly conditions repeatedly, suffering the most damaging heat effects, at least as far as human life is concerned, of any place on the planet.

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The study shows that the risk of deadly heat waves is significantly increased because of intensive irrigation in this relatively dry but highly fertile region, known as the North China Plain — a region whose role in that country is comparable to that of the Midwest in the U.S. That increased vulnerability to heat arises because the irrigation exposes more water to evaporation, leading to higher humidity in the air than would otherwise be present and exacerbating the physiological stresses of the temperature. The new findings, by Elfatih Eltahir at MIT and Suchul Kang at the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, are reported in the journal Nature Communications. The study is the third in a set; the previous two projected increases of deadly heat waves in the Persian Gulf area and in South Asia. While the earlier studies found serious looming risks, the new findings show that the North China Plain, or NCP, faces the greatest risks to human life from rising temperatures, of any location on Earth. “The response is significantly larger than the corresponsing response in the other two regions,” says Eltahir, who is the the Breene M. Kerr Professor of Hydrology and Climate and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering. The three regions the researchers studied were picked because past records indicate that combined temperature and humidity levels reached greater extremes there than on any other land masses. Although some risk factors are clear — low-lying valleys and proximity to warm seas or oceans — “we don’t have a general quantitative theory through which we could have predicted” the location of these global hotspots, he explains. When looking empirically at past climate data, “Asia is what stands out,” he says. Although the Persian Gulf study found some even greater temperature extremes, those were confined to the area over the water of the Gulf itself, not over the land. In the case of the North China Plain, “This is where people live,” Eltahir says. The key index for determining survivability in hot weather, Eltahir explains, involves the combination of heat and humidity, as determined by a measurement called the wet-bulb temperature. It is measured by literally wrapping wet cloth around the bulb (or sensor) of a thermometer, so that evaporation of the water can cool the bulb. At 100 percent humidity, with no evaporation possible, the wet-bulb temperature equals the actual temperature.

People sleeping in a subway station floor to escape the heat

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This measurement reflects the effect of temperature extremes on a person in the open, which depends on the body’s ability to shed heat through the evaporation of sweat from the skin. At a wet-bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius (95 F), a healthy person may not be able to survive outdoors for more than six hours, research has shown. The new study shows that under business-as-usual scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, that threshold will be reached several times in the NCP region between 2070 and 2100. “This spot is just going to be the hottest spot for deadly heat waves in the future, especially under climate change,” Eltahir says. And signs of that future have already begun: There has been a substantial increase in extreme heat waves in the NCP already in the last 50 years, the study shows. Warming in this region over that period has been nearly double the global average — 0.24 degrees Celsius per decade versus 0.13. In 2013, extreme heat waves in the region persisted for up to 50 days, and maximum temperatures topped 38 C in places. Major heat waves occurred in 2006 and 2013, breaking records. Shanghai, East China’s largest city, broke a 141-year temperature record in 2013, and dozens died. To arrive at their projections, Eltahir and Kang ran detailed climate model simulations of the NCP area — which covers about 4,000 square kilometers — for the past 30 years. They then selected only the models that did the best job of matching the actual observed conditions of the past period, and used those models to project the future climate over 30 years at the end of this century. They used two different future scenarios: business as usual, with no new efforts to reduce emissions; and moderate reductions in emissions, using standard scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each version was run two different ways: one including the effects of irrigation, and one with no irrigation. One of the surprising findings was the significant contribution by irrigation to the problem — on average, adding about a half-degree Celsius to the overall warming in the region that would occur otherwise. That’s because, even though extra moisture in the air produces some local cooling effect at ground level, this is more than offset by the added physiological stress imposed by the higher humidity, and by the fact that extra water vapor — itself a powerful greenhouse gas — contributes to an overall warming of the air mass. “Irrigation exacerbates the impact of climate change,” Eltahir says. In fact, the researchers report, the combined effect, as projected by the models, is a bit greater the sum of the individual impacts of irrigation or climate change alone, for reasons that will require further research. The bottom line, as the researchers write in the paper, is the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce the likelihood of such extreme conditions. They conclude, “China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: Continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability of the most populous region of the most populous country on Earth.” “This is a solid piece of research, extending and refining some of the previous studies on man-made climate change and its role on heat waves,” says Christoph Schauer, a professor of atmospheric and climate science at ETH Zurich, who was involved in the work. “This is a very useful study. It highlights some of the potentially serious challenges that will emerge with unabated climate change. … These are important and timely results, as they may lead to adequate adaptation measures before potentially serious climate conditions will emerge.” Schauer adds that “While there is overwhelming evidence that climate change has started to affect the frequency and intensity of heat waves, century-scale climate projections imply considerable uncertainties” that will require further study. However, he says, “Regarding the health impact of high wet-bulb temperatures, the applied health threshold (wet-bulb temperatures near the human body temperature) is very solid and it actually derives from fundamental physical principles.”

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Ageing population will compound deadly effects of heatwaves caused by climate change A combination of global warming and population growth means more people will be exposed to extreme weather systems, with an ageing population particularly at risk from heatwaves, says Royal Society (UK)

Heatwaves are particularly dangerous for people over 65. An increase in their regularity due to climate change and a rising elderly population means more people will be at risk from their effects, say Royal Society. Photograph: Valery Hache/AFP/Getty Images

The double whammy of global warming and a growing, ageing population will mean peoples’ exposure to deadly heatwaves will multiply tenfold this century, according to a new report from the Royal Society. The researchers from the UK’s science academy warn the world is not prepared for the extreme weather which is already being exacerbated by climate change today. The world’s population is expected to swell from 7bn today to a peak of 10bn by mid-century, and the new analysis examines for the first time how this boom will affect the number of people hit by extreme weather, if the relentless rise in carbon emissions is not reversed.

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The combination of population growth and climate change means the impacts of flooding around the world will be increased fourfold and drought impact will be trebled. The report also warns that failure to prepare for more extreme weather would cause huge economic damage, meaning entire nations having their credit ratings downgraded and major companies going bust.

Heatwaves are the climate impact most exacerbated by population changes, because they are particularly dangerous for people over 65 and the global population is ageing quickly. The greying populations of UK and western Europe mean the region is particularly affected by this multiplication affect. In 2003, a 20-day heatwave killed 52,000 people across Europe but. Without action on climate change, once-rare heatwaves will happen every other year by 2100. The US, China and north Africa will also be among those suffering from the magnified impact of heatwaves. The combined climate-population damage from flooding and droughts will be felt heavily in western Europe, while India and sub-Saharan Africa will be struck by all three types of extreme weather. “Extreme weather has a huge impact on society and globally we are not resilient even now,” said Professor Georgina Mace, from University College London and who led the group of 24 physical, social and economic scientists. “This is why we have seen these horrible events [like typhoon Haiyan and hurricane Sandy] in the past few years, with many people affected. If we continue on our current trajectory the problem is likely to get much worse as our climate and population change.” The damages are severe in both harm to people and property, the report stated. Extreme-weather damage cost $1.4 trillion (£0.9 trillion) from 1980-2004, of which only a quarter was insured. People in the poorest nations make up just 11% of those exposed to hazards but suffered over half the deaths from disasters.

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Douglas said it was also vital that the cost of extreme weather damage is built into the world’s economic and financial systems, to ensure that long-term protection measures are seen as good value for money. He said the insurance industry had already been forced to change. “What was an existential risk to the insurance sector is now, at the least, a material risk for the financial wellbeing of the wider economy,” Douglas said. “The credit rating agencies are seriously exploring extending techniques used to stress test insurance companies against extreme weather and disaster risk to corporates and potentially nations. They recognise there is a risk now that needs to be properly managed.” Asked if countries or companies could have their credit ratings downgraded because they were not properly managing the risk of extreme weather to their economies or solvency, Douglas said: “Absolutely yes.” Prof Andrew Watkinson, at the University of East Anglia and not part of the research team, said: “This timely report reminds us that extreme weather events affect us all, that we are not as resilient to current extreme events as we could be, and that the nature of extreme events is likely to change in the future. At a time when deep cuts are being made in public spending it is essential that government does not lose sight of its key role in enabling resilience.”

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Deadly Degrees: Why Heat Waves Kill So Quickly Stephanie Pappas LiveScience

Heat exhaustion can be reversed if a person experiencing heat-illness symptoms cools off, say by pouring cool water on their body. (Image credit: Jim David / Shutterstock.com)

An intense heat wave that sent temperatures in Phoenix to 118 degrees Fahrenheit (47.7 degrees Celsius) this weekend has killed four people — and the heat could be worse today. Those killed so far were all hiking or biking outdoors, but heat waves can kill close to home, too. In 2003, during a major European heat wave, 14,802 people died of hyperthermia in France alone. Most were elderly people living alone in apartment buildings without air conditioning, according to Richard Keller, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor of medical history and bioethics and author of "Fatal Isolation: The Devastating Paris Heat Wave of 2003" (University of Chicago Press, 2015). So how does heat kill? When core body temperature rises too high, everything breaks down: The gut leaks toxins into the body, cells begin to die, and a devastating inflammatory response can occur. [7 Common Summer Health Concerns] Part of the insidiousness of heat-related deaths is how quickly they can happen. According to ABC15 News, a mountain biker who died near Phoenix was a fit 28-year-old who had consumed plenty of water and was biking with two doctors. Her pulse stopped at around 9 a.m. on Sunday (June 19). Despite immediate resuscitation efforts, she could not be saved. Sudden death The deaths so far in Arizona aren't typical heat deaths, Keller told Live Science. Rather, they're "like shots across the bow telling you that something is coming," he said. Outdoorsy types and outdoor workers like roofers might suffer first, but it's the elderly and the mentally ill who make up the majority of deaths. The medical term for excessive body heat is hyperthermia. The first phase is heat exhaustion, a condition marked by heavy sweat, nausea, vomiting and even fainting. The pulse races, and the skin goes clammy. Muscle cramping can be an early sign of heat exhaustion, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

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Heat exhaustion can be reversed by moving to a cool location, loosening clothing and applying cool, wet washcloths to the body. But when people with heat exhaustion can't find relief, they can quickly advance to heat stroke. This condition happens when a person's core body temperature rises above 104 degrees F (40 degrees C). (This number is something of an estimate; there are a few degrees' variability among people as to how much internal heat they can tolerate.) In heat stroke, sweating stops and the skin becomes dry and flushed. The pulse is rapid. The person becomes delirious and may pass out. When trying to compensate for extreme heat, the body dilates the blood vessels in the skin in an attempt to cool the blood. To do this, the body has to constrict the blood vessels in the gut. The reduced blood flow to the gut increases the permeability between the cells that normally keep gut contents in, and toxins can leak into the blood, according to a book chapter in the textbook Wilderness Medicine (Mosby, 2011).

These leaky toxins trigger a massive inflammatory response in the body, so massive that the attempt to fight off the toxins damages the body's own tissues and organs. It can be hard to tell what damage is caused directly by heat and what is caused by the secondary effects of toxins, according to Wilderness Medicine. Muscle cells break down, spilling their contents into the bloodstream and overloading the kidneys, which in turn start to fail, a condition called rhabdomyolysis. [Roasting? 7 Scientific Ways to Beat the Heat]

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Proteins in the spleen start to clump as a direct result of heat; they're essentially cooked. The blood-brain barrier that normally keeps pathogens out of the brain becomes more permeable, allowing dangerous substances into the brain. Autopsies of people killed by heat stroke often reveal microhemorrhages (tiny strokes) and swelling, and 30 percent of heat stroke survivors experience permanent damage in brain function, according to Wilderness Medicine. Far from help As many as 10 percent of people who experience heat stroke die, according to the American Association of Family Physicians (AAFP). Heat exhaustion requires immediate medical treatment and rapid cooling. In the case of a hiker on a trail, there may not be time to get to a spot that's cool enough to reverse the damage. Similarly, people who live in urban areas and lack air conditioning may end up disabled in their own homes, unable to get help before they die from heat stroke. The elderly and those with chronic medical conditions have more difficulty regulating their body temperatures than those in midlife, Keller said, and medications for some chronic diseases can make the problem worse. Likewise, the signals between body and brain that make people feel thirsty may not function as well in old age. (Babies and young children also have more difficulty regulating their temperature than people in the prime of life.) The elderly, neurologically disabled and mentally ill also tend to be more socially isolated than their younger, healthier counterparts.

"They tend to find themselves socially isolated," Keller said. "And that's really, far and away, the biggest risk factor for dying during a heat wave." In France in 2003, the heat hit in August, when many Europeans go on vacation. Elderly people found themselves in mostly empty apartment buildings when the heat crisis reached them. Some were found dead with their doors ajar, Keller said, suggesting that they were trying to get out and get help when they collapsed.

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Others were functionally trapped, he said. An 80-year-old in a seventh-floor walkup who recently had hip surgery can't get down the stairs by themselves. "They had no way to seek help," Keller said. Finally, some may not have realized the severity of the situation. A 2013 analysis by the New York Department of Health and Mental Hygiene found that people who died of heat stroke in that city were not necessarily more likely to live alone than people who survived, in contrast to the 2003 European heat wave. However, the people who died in New York might not have been aware of the warning signs of heat stroke, the researchers wrote. Some people during the European heat wave probably thought they were going through an uncomfortable time and didn't recognize how precarious their survival was, Keller said. Phoenix, Tucson and other cities hit by the current heat wave are built for extreme temperatures, Keller said, so they're unlikely to see high levels of mortality. Most at-risk are low-income people or those living in marginal housing, such as mobile homes, he said. Arizona's Department of Health Services has shared the following tips for preventing heat illness: Drink at least 2 liters (about a half-gallon) of water per day if you are mostly indoors and 1 to 2 additional liters for every hour of outdoor time. Drink before you feel thirsty, and avoid alcohol and caffeine. Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing and use a sun hat or an umbrella to deflect the sun's rays. Eat smaller, more frequent meals instead of large ones. Avoid strenuous activity. Stay indoors as much as possible. Take regular breaks if you must exert yourself on warm days. Original article on Live Science. Stephanie Pappas

Stephanie Pappas is a contributing writer for Live Science. She covers the world of human and animal behavior, as well as paleontology and other science topics.

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Heat Waves and Their Effect on the Economy How Much Do Heat Waves Cost Us? Kimberly Amadeo Updated January 30, 2021 Heat Waves and Their Effect on the Economy (thebalance.com)

A heat wave is a period of unusually hot weather lasting two or more days. The temperature is hotter than average for the region. In an extreme heat wave, temperatures break records. The frequency, severity, and length of heat waves are increasing.1 Heat and humidity already kill an average of 600 people in the U.S. each year.2 Deadly heat waves of at least 20 days affect 30% of the earth’s population. That could increase to 74% by 2100 if global warming isn’t stopped.3 National Weather Service Warnings

The U.S. National Weather Service notifies residents of upcoming heat waves. It uses a Heat Index Value also called the apparent temperature. It factors in humidity with the air temperature in degrees Fahrenheit.4 The NWS issues a Heat Advisory when the heat index reaches a certain level within the next 12 to 24 hours. The trigger point depends on average temperatures and is different for each locality. The advisory may be issued for lower temperatures if it is early in the season or during a multi multi-day day heat wave. A heat advisory means that people could be affected by heat. It warns them to take precautions. It also triggers public safety regulations. These can include a ban on evictions and electricity shutoffs.

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The NWS issues an Excessive Heat Warning when higher heat levels are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. At those temperatures, some people can be seriously affected or die if they don't take precautions. The warning alerts hospitals to prepare for an increase in emergency calls. It activates programs that check on the home-bound. Some cities will open public air-conditioned centers. It also triggers the same public safety regulations as a heat advisory. An Excessive Heat Watch is a warning issued one to two days in advance of the heat wave.5 Heat Wave 2019 The World Meteorological Organization called July 2019 the hottest month in history. It beat the previous record in July 2016. That's without the El Nino warming effect that boosted temperatures in 2016. Cities across Europe hit record temperature, including Paris at 108.7 F. Greenland experienced one of the most significant melt events ever recorded.6 It poured 197 billion tons of water into the North Atlantic, enough to raise the global sea level by 0.02 inches.7 Wildfires scorched Alaska and Siberia OnMemorial Day weekend 2019, a heat wave hit the Southeastern United States. Six cities tied or set record temperatures. A wobbly jet stream pulled hot air from the south. At the same time, it pushed cold air from the north onto the Southwest, sending temperatures down into the 70s.88 Heat Wave 2018 In July 2018, heat waves set new temperature records all over the world. Death Valley had the hottest month ever recorded on Earth. The average temperature was 108 F.9 Caribou, Maine, reported that July was its warmest month ever.1 0 So did 22 counties and cities in China. Several towns reached new highs, including Los Angeles at 111 F, Amsterdam at 94.6 F, and London at 95 F. On July 5, 2018, Ouargla, Algeria, reported 124.34 F, the highest temperature reliably recorded in Africa. Climate scientists were shocked by the sudden onset of these extreme events. The urban heat island effect makes city daytime temperatures 1-7 F hotter and nighttime temperatures 2-5 F hotter.1 1 Causes A heat wave is caused by a high-pressure system that hovers over an area. It traps heat beneath it like an oven. High-pressure systems force air downward. Hot air on the ground cannot escape into higher levels. Without rising air, there are no rain or clouds. The sun just bakes the area until a new pressure system is strong enough to push the high-pressure system away. Climate change increases heat waves by increasing the Earth's average temperature. How much has it warmed? Since the 1880s, the earth’s average temperature has risen a little more than two degrees Fahrenheit or one degree Celsius. Global warming is occurring at a faster rate than at any other time in the Earth's history.1 2 In the northern hemisphere, global warming is changing the jet stream. That’s a river of wind formed when cold Arctic air meets warm southern air. But the Arctic is warming faster than the south. The jet stream slows down and becomes wavy. That allows heat waves to linger.1 3

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Effects Over the past 30 years, heat waves have killed more people than all other weather-related natural disasters combined.1 4 Heat waves kill in four ways: 1. Heat stress causes dehydration and loss of body salt. That throws off the chemistry of the body. 2. As the body tries to ol, it taxes the heart. That can lead to failure in people with heart conditions1 5 3. When the core body temperature rises beyond 104 F, organs fail. The gut leaks toxins into the body, creating a deadly inflammatory response called heat stroke1 6 4. People drown while trying to cool off in lakes and rivers. Heat waves are most likely to affect people who work or live outdoors. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that half of all U.S. workers have jobs that require them to be outdoors. Of those, 6.1 million are in construction, 4.6 million are in logistics, and 2.1 million are in agriculture.1 7 In July 2018, a United States Postal Service worker died on the job when the temperature hit 117 F. Also at risk are those without air conditioning. Worker productivity declines by 2% for every degree Celsius above normal room temperature.1 8 The elderly, injured, and children are most threatened. People on certain medications that curb their ability to sweat are also at risk. Alcoholic consumption worsens the effect of heat waves. Heat waves contributed to the record wildfire season in the American West. The heat dried out vegetation, creating tinder for fires. Scientists were surprised that the heat was enough to overcome soil that was still moist from a wetter than normal winter. Wildfires are driven more by the temperature and moisture content in the air than by the moisture content in the soil.

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Heat waves contributed to the record wildfire season in the American West. The heat dried out vegetation, creating tinder for fires. Scientists were surprised that the heat was enough to overcome soil that was still moist from a wetter than normal winter. Wildfires are driven more by the temperature and moisture content in the air than by the moisture content in the soil. Heat waves could be the reason behind the 45 to 75% decline in worldwide insect populations. Warmer temperatures make males less fertile by reducing sperm count, according to research by the University of East Anglia. It only took a 9 to 12 degree F spike over a five-day period to cut sperm count in half. A second spike almost sterilized the insects.1 9 Costs From 2002 through 2009, the health-related costs of heat waves was $5.3 billion.20 In 2019, health care costs were $3.8 trillion. That's 18% of the U.S. economy. That's up substantially from 1960 when costs were only $27.2 billion, or just 5% of gross domestic product.2 1 Heat waves also lower food production. Between 1964 and 2007, drought and heat waves destroyed onetenth of the world's cereal production.2 2 Forecast Heat waves will increase in the West, Midwest, and Great Lakes areas of the United States by the mid2020s.2 3 Montana and Wyoming will have almost 30 days of heat waves in 2030, compared to 10 in 2000.2 4 Michigan will have 35 and Nebraska will experience almost 40 days of heat waves.2 5 2 6 The climate impact map shows you how much hotter your state or country will be during the next 10 to 100 years. By 2028, heat waves and other climate change effects will add $360 billion per year. Much of this is due to health costs.2 7 By 2030, heat waves will lead to a $2 trillion loss in labor productivity.2 8 It will kill five times as many people in the U.S.2 9 By 2100, climate change could cost the U.S. government $112 billion per year.3 0 Heat waves alone will lower workforce productivity by 1.2 billion hours, costing $170 billion.3 1 ARTICLE SOURCES

(visit the site for all references). Heat Waves and Their Effect on the Economy (thebalance.com)

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How heat waves can scorch the U.S. economy Rachel Layne CBS NEWS UPDATED ON: JUNE 29, 2021 / 10:00 PM / MONEYWATCH

The triple-digit temperatures roasting the Pacific Northwest under a lingering heat dome are also starting to hurt the region's economy. In Portland, Oregon, temperatures forced the city's streetcar system to shut down as power cables melted and the heat strained the power grid. Near Seattle, roads cracked along stretches of a major interstate and a public pool shut because air quality was dangerous. Some restaurants closed to protect kitchen staff in a region where fewer than half of homes have air conditioning. Avista, a utility that serves parts of Washington and Idaho, instituted rolling outages Tuesday as surging electricity demand because of the extreme temperatures strained power grids.

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"We know that human-driven climate change is increasing global temperatures, and extreme heat waves disrupt a bunch of the conditions that we think are normal," said Costa Samaras, a Carnegie Mellon associate professor of civil environmental engineering who focuses on energy and climate change. Last year, some 22 extreme events — from cyclones and hurricanes to drought — cost the U.S. a combined $95 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Since 1980, overall damage from some 285 weather and climate disasters cost at least $1 billion each, or a total of $1.9 trillion, according to NOAA. "Taxpayers are on the hook for rebuilding all that," Samaras said. "So we all are paying additional taxes to fix infrastructure that gets degraded or destroyed because of extreme weather."

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Dangerous Heat Wave Is Literally Melting Critical Infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest The heat-caused damage in the Pacific Northwest is a stark sign of how screwed our infrastructure is when it comes to climate change. Dharna Noor 6/28/21

Power cables are melting. School districts are closing. Asphalt is too hot to touch. The heat wave roasting the Pacific Northwest is putting infrastructure at risk, and temperatures are expected to continue to rise on Monday. The failures show the staggering toll the climate crisis is already taking—and they’re a stark warning for the future if we don’t shore up roads, buildings, and other infrastructure central to modern life. A region from California to British Columbia saw record-breaking temperatures over the weekend due to a sweltering heat dome. The heat is so rare that it’s expected just once in 1,000 years. That’s left the region largely unprepared for the intensity and relentlessness of the heat. Infrastructure, from schools and streets to air conditioning and the power grid, is constructed with the Pacific Northwest’s typical moderate heat in mind. But that’s the climate of the past, and the one of the future is just getting started. The temperature records falling now will become more commonplace in the future. Without adapting, more and more people will be at risk of suffering. The safest place to be amid that level of oppressive triple-digit heat in the Pacific Northwest is indoors with the air conditioning cranked. But since they’re built for cooler weather, more than half of all homes in Seattle aren’t outfitted with cooling technology at all.

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“Currently, we have a relatively limited incorporation of cooling technologies in [Pacific Northwest] households,” Vivek Shandas, a professor of climate adaptation at Portland State University, wrote in an email. “While most commercial [buildings] and businesses have them, people don’t generally sleep in those spaces. Households in Seattle have about 30% central AC, and in Portland it is about 60%, with rural areas having far less. Those with pre-existing existing health conditions, older adults, and also anybody living in apartment complexes are also very vulnerable to this heat.” Heat waves are the deadliest form of extreme weather, and this one is especia especially lly dangerous because the high temperatures are persisting overnight in the region. By 8 a.m. Monday morning, it was already 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 degrees Celsius) elsius) in Seattle. Nights usually provide important relief from the scorching daytime temperatures, but that’s increasin increasingly not the case.

Many are looking to find air-conditioned conditioned hotel rooms in search of respite, but rooms are filling up fast. They may also be inaccessible to some particularly vulnerable populations, like people experiencing homelessness. Cities are also opening up more public cooling centers,, but capacity is limited. Another option, of course, is to buy an air conditioner, but supplies are running low: Salem, Oregon ran out of air conditioning units to buy before the heat wave even began.. This also may not be possible for everyone. “The procurement and use of cooling technologies are generally expensive, and even if people are able to purchase them, then running them is also expensive, which is cost cost-prohibitive prohibitive for those who are struggling with bills,’ said Shandas. Outside the home, the heat is posing infrastructural issues, too. On Sunday, Portland was forced to suspend its streetcar service because the searing temperatures melted the line’s power cables. cables That’s particularly bad news for those who don’t have cars and rely on the streetcar service to get to work or to cooling centers. “Additionally, the ability to use a car when it’s hot requires an engine that doesn’t overheat, and often communities with older or vulnerable engines may not be able to find cooling resources, such as cooling centers that are far from their home and away from public transit,” said Shandas.

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The absurdly hot weather is also putting additional stress on power grids since more people are inside running air conditioning and other equipment. With more heat on the way on Monday, the pressure could get even worse. “Power grids are designed around historical norms, and when we get these abnormal temperatures, the strain on the grid is unprecedented,” said Shandas. One dozen power outages have already occurred in the Northwest amid the heat wave, and Shandas noted that these shutoffs “then create potential impacts on accessing cooling resources, particularly at night when people are most vulnerable to urban heat.”

The heat wave is also affecting places as far north as Canada. On Sunday, the country saw its all-time high when Lytton, British Columbia reached at 115 degrees Fahrenheit (46.1 degrees Celsius). This heat has forced 15 school districts to cancel full days of elementary classes because they lack the infrastructure to keep students cool enough to learn. Climate scientists have warned that these heat waves would begin affecting traditionally cool places. Now, it’s clear they’re here and that infrastructure needs major upgrades to withstand these new normals. “Short term: we need to get people cooling resources—whether that be accessing cooling centers, AC technologies including batteries based on solar, and people to become more familiar with what is vulnerable near their homes,” said Shandas. “Medium-longer term, we need to prioritize historically marginalized populations in funding cooling systems, including the creation of codes that require developers to install cooling technologies into affordable buildings.”

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Electricity, school systems, and other infrastructure must also be overhauled to withstand the pressures of our climate future, and it’s increasingly clear that the time to do so is now. American infrastructure currently has a C- grade from the American Society for Civil Engineers, and that’s even before accounting for the climate crisis is putting further stress on it. Jean Su, the energy justice program director at the Center for Biological Diversity, noted in an email that among other things, the heat wave—as well as other extreme weather catastrophes like the Texas blackout earlier this year—show the need to “rapidly transition off of fossil fuels and build a resilient energy system that starts with rooftop and community solar and storage.” Congress has a chance to make crucial investments to prepare infrastructure not just in the Northwest but across the country for the cliamte crisis in the coming infrastructure bill. But in negotiations, senators seem to be letting issues like climate adaptation fall by the wayside in favor of nebulous concepts like bipartisanship. On Monday, 500 youth activists with the Sunrise Movement and Rep. Jamaal Bowman rallied outside the White House to demand an infrastructure package that adequately addresses the changes needed to keep people safe in our changing climate.

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PHOTOS: The Record-Breaking Heat Wave That's Scorching The Pacific Northwest June 29, 2021 Josie Fischels

The sun shines near the Space Needle, Monday, June 28, 2021, in Seattle. Seattle and other cities broke all-time heat records over the weekend, with temperatures soaring well above 100 degrees. Ted S. Warren/AP

Record-breaking temperatures have soared well past 100 degrees across the Pacific Northwest, where the area is trapped beneath a blistering "heat dome." In a region where average temperatures are closer to the 70s this time of year, houses can be seen with blackedout windows covered with blankets to help with the heat. The area's normally mild summers mean many households don't have air conditioning. The historic heatwave is bringing with it fears about what could follow over the rest of this summer.

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The Pacific Northwest has a lack of air conditioners as hot weather is not typical. Here, Portland, Oregon residents stay at a cooling center. Maranie Staab/Bloomberg via Getty Images Records set one day have been broken the next. Records have been shattered daily in parts of the Northwest, including Portland and Seattle. Portland broke records three days in a row, hitting 108 on Saturday, 112 on Sunday and then 116 on Monday.

Seattle reached 108 degrees on Monday during the heat wave in the Pacific Northwest. Here, a mother and daughter carry umbrellas to shield from the sun. John Froschauer/AP

In Seattle, the temperature rose to 108 on Monday. In Pasco, Wash., the mercury climbed to 118 degrees, the hottest temperature the state has recorded since 1961.

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Portland recorded three of its hottest days in history last Saturday and this Sunday and Monday. Here, a couple and their dog lay in the shade during the heat wave. Maranie Staab/Bloomberg via Getty Images

In some places, the heat is so intense it has even melted power cables. In downtown Portland, the Portland Streetcar service shut down on Sunday, posting a picture on Twitter of a power cable with a hole burnt into it.

Roads have buckled under the heat in Portland Pacific Northwest infrastructure is cracking — literally — under the pressure. In Everson, Wash., temperatures have caused the pavement to soften and expand. This can create rutting, buckling, and potholes, particularly in high-traffic areas. State Route 544 milepost 7 near Everson, Wa is currently closed. The asphalt roadway is buckling and unsafe for travel. WSDOT is advised and detours are currently being set up. BL

Drought has created a vicious dry cycle Widespread drought extending from the West and all the way into the Great Plains has only worsened under the heat dome. In the Northwest, a typically wet area, abnormally dry and drought conditions have expanded in a matter of weeks. On June 22, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported 79.8% of the region was in drought just ahead of the fire season.

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Scientists say the warming climate is making both heat waves and droughts more frequent and intense.

A sign is shown on the door of a Molly Moon's Ice Cream store in Seattle's Capitol Hill neighborhood. The store was closed Monday due to excessive heat. Ted S. Warren/AP Josie Fischels is an intern on NPR's News Desk.

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Records smashed again: Portland infrastructure crumbles under 116-degree heat By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer Published Jun. 29, 2021 Three days, three records. On Monday, for the third consecutive day, the high-temperature page of Portland's record book needed a rewrite. Portland has been at the epicenter of a record-shattering heat wave that has been sending temperatures soaring to previously unimaginable levels across the northwestern United States and western Canada. Among the victims left in the heat wave's wrath have been stricken residents, buckled streets and melted power cables. Little relief has been offered even at night, and the city had record warmth on Tuesday morning by dropping only to 75 degrees Fahrenheit, almost 20 degrees above average. The city continued its streak of searing heat Monday, setting a new all-time record high temperature in the process.

The intense Portland heat has caused streets and sidewalks to buckle. (AccuWeather/Bill Wadell)

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The day's highest mark reached 116 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking the one-day-old record of 112 set Sunday. That had broken the anything-but-ageless record of 108 set Saturday. However, prior to that, the all-time high truly did seem untouchable, as no day had touched the previous record of 107 F since August 1981. For a city that typically sees average highs top out in the low 80s during the year's hottest months, in July and August, this June blast of heat was never something many in the city could have imagined. The city's infrastructure and operations were a testament to that.

On Monday, power cables supporting streetcars in Portland were stretched to the extreme, melting in some areas. Less than 50 miles south of Portland, the city of Salem, Oregon, posted the day's highest temperature, hitting a new all-time high of 117 degrees. For reference, Las Vegas has never recorded a day warmer than that. On such a hot day, even cold conditions can become dangerous for those looking to cool off in rivers or streams.

Power cables supporting Portland streetcars wilted under the intense heat wave. (Twitter/@PDXStreetcar)

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The shock from cold water, as low as 50 degrees, presented a risk to even the most experienced swimmer, Robert McDonald told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell. McDonald, operations manager with AMR, told Wadell that he was proud of the EMS response in the area, which has helped save lives as more than a dozen people were rushed to the hospital with heat illnesses Monday.

The all-time record high for the state of Oregon is 119 set in Pendleton on August 10, 1898 and previously on July 29, 1898.

"This was a big turn for EMS in the region, but I gotta tell you that I applaud most everyone that’s participated," he said. "I applaud our crews, they have done an amazing job in what can only be called an austere event. It’s hot and difficult out there." The Oregon Health Authority reported a total of 506 heat-related visits to emergency departments and urgent care centers over the past four days, according to CNN, and at least 251 visits occurred on Monday. Across Oregon, authorities have speculated that the heat played a role in at least seven deaths.

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The heat wasn't any less brutal in Washington where at least 676 people visited emergency departments for heat-related symptoms from Friday into Sunday. Spokesperson for the Washington State Department of Health Cory Portner told CNN that 81 of those cases led to inpatient admissions. At least two deaths in Washington were blamed on heat exposure, according to The Seattle Times, which cited the King's County Medical Examiner's office. A 65-year-old woman from Seattle and a 68-year-old woman from nearby Emunclaw died of hyperthermia, or a form of overheating, the medical examiner's office said, according to the Times. One group directly stricken by heat illnesses has been pool lifeguards. The Portland Parks and Recreation Department announced the closing of public pools on Monday after multiple lifeguards experienced heatrelated illnesses on Sunday.

Nicola Biello, 9, was hoping to cool off at a Portland pool on Monday, but found the gates locked after multiple lifeguards had suffered heat-related illnesses over the weekend. (AccuWeather/Bill Wadell)

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For Gena Biello and her 9-year-old daughter Nicola, that meant having to make a change of plans. Gena considered the safety of the lifeguards as they were driving to the pool, but told Wadell that she was just hoping the pool would be open for her own family's sake of cooling off. "I thought that it does kind of make sense because the lifeguards would be really hot, but it’s also a little bit of a bummer that the pool’s not open," Nicola said. Her mom agreed. "Ironically enough, who would have thought we’d come to a day when it’s too hot to swim?" Gena said. "That’s where we’re at now."

Portland, Oregon's average summer temperature has trended upwards over the past several decades. (Climate Central)

By Tuesday, the temperature in Portland had cooled off some as the city registered a high of 92 -- still well above average, but a far cry from the searing 116 a day earlier. Also on Tuesday, the 116-degree record heat had caught the attention of President Joe Biden. Speaking at a warehouse in Wisconsin, Biden, who was discussing his proposed infrastructure plan, mentioned the high heat in Portland. "Anybody ever believe you’d turn on the news, it says it’s 116 degrees in Portland, Oregon? 116 degrees," the president said. "But don’t worry, there is no global warming. It doesn’t exist. It’s a figment of our imagination." On Wednesday, several more daily records were broken across the Northwest, though the heat is generally winding down, and the peak has passed. Hermiston, Oregon, set a new record of 109 F, which is four degrees above the previous record there from 1924.

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As the week progresses, families like the Biellos may need to continue finding alternative methods to stay cool. AccuWeather meteorologists forecast the gripping heat to linger through Thursday. Though the Northwest heat’s rage may soften slightly enough to allow the ink on the record books to dry, the unusually high temperatures will still remain in place, including well beyond the Fourth of July. “In fact, record-challenging temperatures are likely to persist east of the Cascades and throughout western Canada into the early days of July,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff wrote. “High temperatures can still soar close to 20 degrees above normal each day for many locations from the middle of the week onward.”

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Historic heat wave linked to hundreds of deaths in Pacific Northwest and Canada Emma Newburger JUL 1 2021

CNBC POINTS The historic heat wave that’s scorched a great deal of the Pacific Northwest has been blamed for hundreds of deaths in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia in the past week. Oregon’s state medical examiner’s office said the extreme heat has killed at least 63 people in the state since Friday. In King County, Washington, which includes Seattle, nearly a dozen people died from the heat Wednesday. Lisa Lapointe, British Columbia’s chief coroner, said at least 486 sudden deaths had been reported between Friday and Wednesday and that number is set to increase.

People rest at the Oregon Convention Center cooling station in Oregon, Portland on June 28, 2021, as a heatwave moves over much of the United States. Kathryn Elsesser | AFP | Getty Images

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The historic heat wave that’s scorched a great deal of the Pacific Northwest and caused record high temperatures in Canada has been blamed for hundreds of deaths in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia in the past week. Oregon’s state medical examiner’s office said the extreme heat has killed at least 63 people in the state since Friday; 45 of those deaths were reported in Multnomah County, which includes Portland. The region saw temperatures reach a record high of 116 degrees Fahrenheit. Dr. Jennifer Vines, Multnomah County’s health officer, said the preliminary cause of death was hyperthermia, an abnormally high body temperature resulting from an inability of the body to deal with heat. Many of the dead were found alone and without air conditioning. “This was a true health crisis that has underscored how deadly an extreme heat wave can be, especially to otherwise vulnerable people,″ Vines said in a statement. “I know many county residents were looking out for each other and am deeply saddened by this initial death toll,” Vines said. “As our summers continue to get warmer, I suspect we will face this kind of event again.″

Shanton Alcaraz from the Salvation Army Northwest Division gives bottled water to Eddy Norby who lives in an RV and invites him to their nearby cooling center for food and beverages during a heat wave in Seattle, Washington, U.S., June 27, 2021. Karen Ducey | Reuters

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Lisa Lapointe, British Columbia’s chief coroner, said at least 486 sudden deaths had been reported between Friday and Wednesday, and the number is set to increase. The number of deaths represents a 195% increase over the roughly 165 deaths that would typically occur in the province over a period of five days. “While it is too early to say with certainty how many of these deaths are heat related, it is believed likely that the significant increase in deaths reported is attributable to the extreme weather B.C. has experienced,” Lapointe said in a statement. In King County, Washington, which includes Seattle, nearly a dozen people died from the heat on Wednesday, according to the medical examiner’s office. Two people were also found dead in their apartments on Tuesday due to apparent heat-related stress in Spokane, Washington. “We cannot just turn up the AC; we have to turn up our level of efforts fighting the underlying cause of our changing world — climate change,” Washington Gov. Jay Inslee wrote Tuesday in a Seattle Times op-ed. “Our recent discomfort is but the tip of the melting iceberg,” Inslee wrote. “What we felt this week is just the opening act in a looming global disaster.” Human-caused climate change is creating more frequent and severe heat waves in the U.S. High temperatures this week also come as the West grapples with the worst drought conditions in the last two decades.

Isis Givens-Guttierrez, 9, cools off in Georgetown Playfield splash park during a heat wave in Seattle, Washington, U.S., June 26, 2021. Karen Ducey | Reuters

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Recent research found that more than one-third of global heat-related deaths during warm seasons can be attributed to climate change. In the U.S., heat kills more people than any other weather disaster. During heat waves, lower nighttime temperatures that can provide relief from the hot daytime temperatures are also disappearing as the Earth warms, endangering people who don’t have air conditioning in their homes. President Joe Biden, in a meeting Wednesday with Western governors, said climate change has driven a dangerous combination of extreme heat and persistent drought and that the U.S. is significantly behind in developing ways to combat worsening wildfires. “Right now we have to act, and act fast,” the president said during the meeting, which was attended by the governors of Oregon, California, New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. “The truth is we’re playing catch-up.” The Earth has already warmed more than 1 degree Celsius compared with preindustrial levels, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Scientists have consistently urged an immediate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst consequences of global warming.

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‘Prolonged, dangerous and historic’ heat wave bakes much of western Canada, including two northern Canadian territories, Yukon and the Northwest Territories. The Canadian Press

High temperatures could extend into next week for many areas, Environment Canada warns Environment Canada is warning the extreme heat wave that has settled over much of Western Canada won’t lift for days, although parts of British Columbia and Yukon could see some relief sooner. Heat warnings remain posted across B.C. and Alberta, large parts of Saskatchewan, Northwest Territories Terri and a section of Yukon as the weather office forecasts temperatures reaching 40 C in some areas. Sixty heat records fell on Sunday in B.C B.C., ., including in the Village of Lytton, where temperatures reached 46.6 C — breaking the all-time time Canadian high of 45 C set in Saskatchewan in 1937. Environment Canada warns the “prolonged, dangerous and historic heat wave” ve” could ease as early as Tuesday on B.C.’s South Coast and in Yukon, but won’t relent until mid mid-week, week, or early next week, elsewhere. Climate change at play CBC meteorologist Johanna Wagstaffe says that record is expected to be shattered again Monday, possibly in Abbotsford, B.C. “This is absolutely connected to climate change,” she said. “First of all our baseline has shifted. Our new normals are already one to three degrees warmer across the province, even up to four or five degrees warmer through the north.” Wagstaffe says that moving forward, British Columbia is forecast to experience more extreme heat earlier on

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Wagstaffe says that moving forward, British Columbia is forecast to experience more extreme heat earlier on in the summer as well as more days with temperatures above 30 degrees. “While you can’t take one event and say it’s directly connected to climate change, this is consistent with what climate change will continue to do to our province.” Alberta is set to be the country’s hot spot Tuesday with temperatures in the high 30s and more all-time provincial records expected to be broken before temperatures come down Friday, says Wagstaffe. Drink water, avoid sun

Those living in the areas affected by the heat wave are being advised to take certain precautions to avoid heatrelated illnesses, which can sometimes be life-threatening. Here are some tips to stay safe in extreme heat: -Avoid the direct sun as much as possible. -Plan to spend time in a cool, or air-conditioned place, like a library, a mall, or even a movie theatre if you can. -Drink a lot of water, even before you feel thirsty. -Avoid strenuous activity and exercise. -Avoid sunburn and wear sunscreen with SPF 30 or higher on exposed skin and an SPF 30 lip balm. -Wear lightweight, light-coloured, loose-fitting clothing and a wide-brimmed hat, or use an umbrella for shade.

In B.C., municipalities and districts have opened cooling centres at public libraries and community centres for those who don’t have air conditioning. Forecasters say humid conditions could make it feel close to 50 C in B.C.’s Fraser Valley, and area raspberry growers say any cooling by Tuesday may come too late for their heat-ravaged crops, with one farm posting on social media that its season is likely over before a single berry has been picked. Flood watches are in place across B.C. for the extreme snow melt that is happening on mountain tops due to the high temperatures.

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School districts across the province have cancelled classes for the day rather than hold them in classrooms without air conditioning, and the Fraser Health Authority says it is temporarily juggling appointments and relocating several COVID-19 vaccination clinics to reduce the chance of heat-related illnesses. “All individuals with appointments at affected immunization clinics will be notified to proceed to alternate clinics and all appointments will be honoured,” the health authority said in a statement released Saturday. More information was expected to be released by the end of the day on Monday regarding any extension of the temporary measures, Fraser Health said. Record-breaking electricity demand BC Hydro set another new record for the highest summer peak hourly demand — the hour customers use the most electricity — on Sunday night. Electricity use reached 8,106 megawatts — more than 100 megawatts higher than the previous summer record set on Saturday. According to the corporation, Monday’s peak hourly demand is expected to again break the record, possibly exceeding 8,300 megawatts. BC Hydro says localized outages have occurred over the past couple of days which is especially concerning during extreme heat.

Paramedics overwhelmed The heat wave has created an incredibly challenging situation for the province’s paramedics. Troy Clifford, provincial president of the Ambulance Paramedics of B.C., told CBC’s The Early Edition on Monday that dispatchers received a record-level of calls this weekend. “At times yesterday there was over 100, peaking at 130, calls holding between emergency and nonemergency calls,” said Clifford.

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Clifford said in some emergency situations, people were waiting up to two hours for an ambulance. “Paramedics and dispatchers are absolutely, I don’t know what to say, at wit’s end,” said Clifford. He estimated 25 per cent of calls over the weekend were directly due to the heat and said people need to know their limitations, especially when engaging in recreational activities like hiking where rescue missions are complex and a strain on already limited resources.

-With files from CBC News, The Early Edition

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Finland's Arctic Lapland area swelters in record heatwave. Finland’s northernmost Arctic Lapland region has recorded its hottest temperature for more than a century at 33.6 degrees Celsius (92.5 Fahrenheit) The Associated Press

HELSINKI -- Finland’s northernmost Arctic Lapland region has recorded its hottest temperature for more than a century at 33.6 degrees Celsius (92.5 Fahrenheit), during a heatwave that's been afflicting the entire Nordic country for weeks. The temperature was measured Monday at Finland's northernmost Utsjoki-Kevo weather station near the border with Norway by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The institute said there was only one higher historical measurement reported in Lapland — 34.7 C in the Inari Thule area, in July 1914. The beginning of July has been exceptionally warm in Lapland, one of Europe's last remaining wildernesses known for its extremely cold winters that attracts domestic and international nature lovers in both summer and winter. The region, Finland's largest by surface, host records for the coldest temperatures in the nation of 5.5 million. “It is exceptional in Lapland to record temperatures" of over 32 C, Jari Tuovinen, a meteorologist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, told the Finnish public broadcaster YLE.

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So hot in Rovaniemi (Finnish Lapland) that the reindeer head for the beaches. He said the current heat wave in Lapland is a result of prevailing high pressure causing warm air in the area. In addition, "warm air has been brought in from Central Europe to the north through the Norwegian Sea,” Tuovinen told YLE. Nordic neighbors Norway and Sweden have also recently recorded high temperatures in the north, where the Norwegian municipality of Saltdal recorded 34 C this week. Finland's all-time high temperature of 37.2 C was measured in the eastern city of Joensuu in 2010, YLE reported.

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The state of the climate in 2021 By Isabelle Gerretsen10th January 2021

BBC

The state of the climate in 2021 - BBC Future

After the turbulent year of 2020, BBC Future takes stock on the state of the climate at the beginning of 2021. From unprecedented wildfires across the US to the extraordinary heat of Siberia, the impacts of climate change were felt in every corner of the world in 2020. We have come to a "moment of truth", United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in his State of the Planet speech in December. "Covid and climate have brought us to a threshold." BBC Future brings you our round-up of where we are on climate change at the start of 2021, according to five crucial measures of climate health. 1. CO2 levels The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere reached record levels in 2020, hitting 417 parts per million in May. The last time CO2 levels exceeded 400 parts per million was around four million years ago, during the Pliocene era, when global temperatures were 2-4C warmer and sea levels were 10-25 metres (33-82 feet) higher than they are now. "We are seeing record levels every year," says Ralph Keeling, head of the CO2 programme at the Scripps

InterpNEWS "We are seeing record levels every year," says Ralph Keeling, head of the CO2 programme at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which has been tracking CO2 concentrations from the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii since 1958. "We saw record levels again this year despite Covid." The effect of lockdowns on concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere was so small that it registers as a "blip", hardly distinguishable from the year-to-year fluctuations of the carbon cycle, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and has had a negligible impact on the overall curve of rising CO2 levels. "We have put 100ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere in the last 60 years," says Martin Siegert, co-director of the Grantham Institute for climate change and the environment at Imperial College London. That is 100 times faster than previous natural increases, such as those that occurred towards the end of the last ice age more than 10,000 years ago. "If we keep tracking the worst-case scenario, by the end of this century levels of CO2 will be 800ppm. We haven't had that for 55 million years. There was no ice on the planet then and it was 12C warmer," says Siegert.

CO2 emissions have risen rapidly since the 1970s (Credit: European Commission JRC EDGAR/Crippa et al. 2020/BBC)

2. Record heat The past decade was the hottest on record. The year 2020 was more than 1.2C hotter than the average year in the 19th Century. In Europe it was the hottest year ever, while globally 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest. Record temperatures, including 2016, usually coincide with an El Niño event (a large band of warm water that forms in the Pacific Ocean every few years), which results in large-scale warming of ocean surface temperatures. But 2020 was unusual because the world experienced a La Niña event (the reverse of El Niño, with a cooler band of water forming). In other words, without La Niña bringing global temperatures down, 2020 would have been even hotter.

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The exceptionally warm temperatures triggered the largest wildfires ever recorded in the US states of California and Colorado, and the "black summer" of fires in eastern Australia. "The intensity of those fires and number of people being killed is truly significant," says Siegert.

High temperature anomalies have become greater and more frequent in recent years on land, air and sea (Credit: NOAA/BBC)

3. Arctic ice Nowhere is that increase in heat more keenly felt than in the Arctic. In June 2020, the temperature reached 38C in eastern Siberia, the hottest ever recorded within the Arctic Circle. The heatwave accelerated the melting of sea ice in the East Siberian and Laptev seas and delayed the usual Arctic freeze by almost two months. "You definitely saw the impact of those warm temperatures," says Julienne Stroeve, a polar scientist from University College London. On the Eurasian side of the Arctic Circle, the ice did not freeze until the end of October, which is unusually late. The summer of 2020 saw sea ice area at its second lowest on record, and sea ice extent (a larger measure, which includes ocean areas where at least 15% ice appears) also at its second lowest. As well as being a symptom of climate change, the loss of ice is also a driver of it. Bright white sea ice plays an important role in reflecting heat from the Sun back out into space, a bit like a reflective jacket. But the Arctic is heating twice as quickly as the rest of the world – and as less ice makes it through the warm summer months, we lose its reflective protection. In its place, large areas of open dark water absorb more heat, fueling global warming further.

Everything is interconnected. If one part of the climate system changes, the rest of the system will respond – Julienne Stroeve

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Multi-year ice is also thicker and more reflective than the thin, dark seasonal ice that is increasingly taking its place. Between 1979-2018, the proportion of Arctic sea ice that is at least five years old declined from 30% to 2%, according to the IPCC. "White ice reflects a lot of energy from the Sun and helps slow the rate of global warming," says Michael Meredith, a polar researcher at the British Antarctic Survey. "We are accelerating global warming by reducing the amount of Arctic sea ice." The loss of ice is believed to be disrupting weather patterns around the world already. According to the Grantham Institute, it is possible – though not conclusively shown – that 2018 Arctic conditions provoked the "Beast from the East" winter storm in Europe in 2018 by altering the jet stream, a current of air high in the atmosphere. "Temperature difference between the equator and poles drives a lot of our large-scale weather systems, including the jet stream," says Stroeve. And because the Arctic is warming faster than lower latitudes, there is a weakening of the jet stream. "Everything is interconnected. If one part of the climate system changes, the rest of the system will respond," says Stroeve.

The Arctic sea ice has been diminishing rapidly since detailed records began in the 1970s, in a feedback cycle of warming and melting (Credit: NSIDC/BBC)

4. Permafrost Across the northern hemisphere, permafrost – the ground that remains frozen year-round for two or more years – is warming rapidly. When air temperatures reached 38C (100F) in Siberia in the summer of 2020, land temperatures in several parts of the Arctic Circle hit a record 45C (113F), accelerating the thawing of permafrost in the region. Both continuous permafrost (long, uninterrupted stretches of permafrost) and discontinuous (a more fragmented kind) are in decline.

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Permafrost is thawing – releasing CO2.

Permafrost contains a huge amount of greenhouse gases, including CO2 and methane, which are released into the atmosphere as it thaws. Soils in the permafrost region, which spans around 23 million square kilometres (8.9 million square miles) across Siberia, Greenland, Canada and the Arctic, hold twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does – almost 1,600 billion tonnes. Much of that carbon is stored in the form of methane, a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming impact 84 times higher than CO2. "Permafrost is doing us a big favour by keeping that carbon locked away from the atmosphere," says Meredith. Thawing permafrost also damages existing infrastructure and destroys the livelihoods of the indigenous communities who rely on the frozen ground to move around and hunt. It is thought to have contributed to the collapse of a huge fuel tank in the Russian Arctic in May, which leaked 20,000 tonnes of diesel into a river.

As ground temperatures rise even fractionally, permafrost around the world begins to thaw and release greenhouse gases (Credit: Biskaborn et al. 2019/Nature Communications/BBC)

InterpNEWS 5. Forests Since 1990 the world has lost 178 million hectares of forest (690,000 square miles) – an area the size of Libya. Over the past three decades, the rate of deforestation has slowed but experts say it isn't fast enough, given the vital role forests play in curbing global warming. In 2015-20 the annual deforestation rate was 10 million hectares (39,000 square miles, or about the size of Iceland), compared to 12 million hectares (46,000 square miles) in the previous five years. "Globally forest areas continue to decline," says Bonnie Waring, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute, noting that there are big regional differences. "We are losing a lot of tropical forests in South America and Africa [and] regaining temperate forests through tree planting or natural regeneration in Europe and Asia." Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia are the countries losing forest cover most rapidly. In 2020, deforestation of the Amazon rainforest surged to a 12-year high.

An estimated 45% of all carbon on land is stored in trees and forest soil. "Soils globally contain more carbon than all plants and atmosphere put together," says Waring. When forests are cut down or burned, the soil is disturbed and carbon dioxide is released. Read more on the solutions:  

The revolutionary plan to save the Congo Basin The vast rewilding of the Kazakh steppe

The World Economic Forum launched a campaign this year to plant one trillion trees to absorb carbon. While planting trees might help cancel out the last 10 years of CO2 emissions, it cannot solve the climate crisis on its own, according to Waring. "Protecting existing forests is even more important than planting new ones. Every time an ecosystem is disturbed, you see carbon lost," she says. Allowing forests to regrow naturally and rewilding huge areas of land, a process known as natural regeneration, is the most cost-effective and productive way to capture CO2 and boost overall biodiversity, according to Waring.

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World deforestation rates are slowing slowly overall, but in some of the world's most pristine forests it is still rapid (Credit: FAO/BBC)

As well as showing how much the climate has changed already, these five climate indicators also point the way to the solutions that can curb global warming to safer levels by the end of the century. As Guterres noted in his December State of the Planet speech, "Let's be clear: Human activities are at the root of our descent towards chaos. But that means human action can help solve it."

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Published at the Yale School of the Environment

Melt pools atop sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in August 2009. P AB LO CLEMENTE -COLON / NAT IONAL I CE CE NTE R

Alien Waters: Neighboring Seas Are Flowing into a Warming Arctic Ocean The “Atlantification” and “Pacification” of the Arctic has begun. As warmer waters stream into an increasingly ice-free Arctic Ocean, new species — from phytoplankton to whales — have the potential to upend this sensitive polar environment. Cheryl Katz Facebo ok Email

Above Scandinavia, on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, mackerel, cod, and other fish native to the European coast are migrating through increasingly ice-free waters, heading deeper into the Arctic Basin toward Siberia. Thousands of miles to the west, above Alaska, kittiwakes and other polar seabirds are being supplanted by southern birds following warm waters streaming north through the Bering Strait. And midway between, above Canada, sea ice-avoiding killer whales from the Atlantic are increasingly making themselves at home in a thawing Arctic.

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As the Arctic heats up faster than any other region on the planet, once-distinct boundaries between the frigid polar ocean and its warmer, neighboring oceans are beginning to blur, opening the gates to southern waters bearing foreign species, from phytoplankton to whales. The “Atlantification” and “Pacification” of the Arctic Ocean are now rapidly advancing. A new paper by University of Washington oceanographer Rebecca Woodgate, for example, finds that the volume of Pacific Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait surged up to 70 percent over the past decade and now equals 50 times the annual flow of the Mississippi River. And over on the Atlantic flank of the Arctic, another recent report concludes that the Arctic Ocean’s cold layering system that blocks Atlantic inflows is breaking down, allowing a deluge of warmer, denser water to flood into the Arctic Basin. Because the oceanographic conditions in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic are distinct, the physical mechanisms behind these widespread changes differ. But scientists say that the growing intrusions on both sides of the Arctic Ocean are driving heat, nutrients, and temperate species to new polar latitudes — with profound impacts on Arctic Ocean dynamics, marine food webs, and longstanding predator-prey relationships.

The Arctic Ocean, and its connections to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. YALE ENVIRONMENT 360 / GOOGLE EARTH You’re really changing the system in terms of its capacity for production with the loss of sea ice, influx of nutrients, and also this ‘highway of prey,’” says Sue Moore, a biological oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Office of Science and Technology who studies marine ecosystems in the Pacific Arctic. “It’s a whole resetting of the table.” Striking ecosystem effects are becoming evident across the high north. Some species appear to be gaining new habitat, while others seem to be rapidly losing ground.

InterpNEWS On the Pacific side, humpback whales, a sub-Arctic species, have been observed in recent years as far north as Utqiaġvik (formerly called Barrow), off Alaska’s North Slope, where they had not been reported before. Moore thinks the whales are feasting on pulses of Pacific krill and other food streaming into the Arctic. Reduction in sea ice also allows whales to arrive earlier and stay later, giving them more time to feed and reproduce. And this past winter, when sea ice in the Alaskan Arctic formed up to three months late and disappeared at the earliest date on record, “We had bowhead whales in the Chukchi Sea pretty much overwinter —we have never seen that before now,” says Moore, who is co-leader of the Synthesis of Arctic Research project, an international collaboration of polar experts looking at the effects of a changing Pacific Arctic on marine life.

Signs of ecosystem shifts are even more dramatic on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, where inflows are far warmer, larger, and saltier. Along the Arctic coast of western Canada, indigenous fishermen report salmon venturing unusually far north, says Carolina Behe, the indigenous knowledge science advisor for the Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska. And scientists conducting an Arctic ecosystem survey in 2008 were surprised to find walleye pollock and Pacific cod in the Beaufort Sea, said Elizabeth Logerwell, an ecologist with the NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center who co-led the survey. If these more southern species extend their range north, they could potentially supplant native Arctic fish. She cautioned, however, that the region lacks long-term historical fish survey data, making it hard to know for certain whether these were actually new arrivals or just being scientifically observed for the first time. Scientists do say that the intrusion of Pacific waters is taking a toll on seabirds in the Alaskan Arctic. Traditional summer denizens in the Chukchi Sea — such as black-legged kittiwakes, thick-billed murres, and glaucous gulls — are now being supplanted by least and crested auklets, northern fulmars, and short-tailed shearwaters, which had not previously ventured so far north. The shift reflects a change in the birds’ prey, with new prey species being swept north through the Bering Strait. The change is causing an overall decline in seabird numbers, a recent paper concludes. Signs of ecosystem shifts are even more dramatic on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, where Atlantic Ocean inflows overall are far warmer, larger, and saltier. Moore likens the incursion across the long boundary zone above Iceland and Scandinavia to a “firehose,” compared to a “garden hose” on the Pacific side, where incoming waters are constrained by the relatively narrow Bering Strait. “When I came to Norway in 1974, the northern border for mackerel was western Norway,” says Paul Wassmann, a professor of marine ecology at the Arctic University of Norway in Tromsø and an expert on ice-edge ecosystems. “Now you can see [mackerel] in Svalbard fjords,” he says, referring to a group of Norwegian Arctic islands that lie nearly 600 miles above the mainland as far as 81 degrees North. Buoyed by Atlantic intrusions, warm water species are spreading northeast into the Arctic Ocean, and resident cold– adapted species, such as Arctic cod, are attempting to retreat further north. In the past half-decade, says Wassmann, “There has been (Atlantic) cod in fishable amounts north of Svalbard, which had not been observed before.”

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In the Barents Sea, fish species typically found in the Atlantic Ocean, such as cod, beaked redfish, and long rough dab, have moved north and displaced Arctic fishes. NOAA CLIMATE.GOV

One of the most striking trends is a rapid poleward spread of phytoplankton, the microalgae at the base of the marine food chain. A new study finds that Emiliania huxleyi, a phytoplankton native to more temperate, Atlantic seas, are blooming 5 degrees latitude, or roughly 350 miles, farther north in the European Arctic today than in 1989. The northward spread of Atlantic phytoplankton could have a drastic effect on the Arctic marine ecosystem, says co-author Laurent Oziel, a polar oceanographer at Laval University in Quebec City. In the Arctic, the zooplankton that consume phytoplankton are specialized to store large reservoirs of fat to withstand harsh winter conditions. This makes them especially rich food sources for the fish that eat them, the seals that eat the fish, and on up to the top predators, such as polar bears. But the influx of southern phytoplankton is bringing in new types of zooplankton that are leaner and provide less nutrition for local species, Oziel says. Southern zooplankton may not be able to survive the cold northern conditions. But Wassmann says that thinning and disappearing sea ice is allowing more light to penetrate the Arctic Ocean’s depths, stimulating algae growth that could allow fish and organisms to become established in places that previously lacked sufficient nutrients. Atlantic influences are also being felt along the Canadian section of the Arctic Ocean. “In Hudson Bay we’ve seen a huge climatic shift in what we call subarctic species,” says Jennifer Provencher, a postdoctoral fellow in northern research at Acadia University in Nova Scotia. “We have documented that shifting occurring from cold-water species to the warmer water Atlantic species. In our case, it’s going from Arctic cod to much more capelin and sand lance.”

Scientists are trying to better understand what’s driving the growing invasions of species from the Arctic Ocean’s neighboring waters.

InterpNEWS Another species appearing with increasing regularity in the Canadian Arctic is Orcinus Orca — the killer whale. These large, carnivorous members of the dolphin family used to be rare in the normally ice-covered waters, which orcas avoided because of their tall dorsal fins. But as sea ice retreats and their prey moves north, killer whales are now showing up more frequently in parts of the Canadian Arctic, where they pose a threat to narwhals, Beluga, and bowhead whales. As Nature Canada blogger Rebecca Kennedy puts it, “Killer whales are poised to become a major Arctic predator.” Scientists are trying to better understand what’s driving the growing invasions from the Arctic Ocean’s neighboring waters. Historically, the northward flow through the Bering Strait is driven by a height difference — the Bering Sea is higher than the Chukchi Sea on the north side of the Bering Strait, causing the Pacific waters to run “downhill” into the Arctic, explains Robert Pickart, a physical oceanographer with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts who studies Pacific Arctic circulation. Prevailing northerly winds normally oppose the flow, especially in winter, when they retard Pacific water from crossing into the Arctic. Woodgate’s research finds that the increased Pacific flux is not due to a change in local winds, however. Instead, it appears linked to increased atmospheric pressure deep in the Arctic Basin, Pickart says. “You have all this warm Pacific water coming into the Arctic and what is that going to mean?” says Pickart. “Not only is there more water going through, but there’s an increase in the amount of heat going through.” Adding more heat, he says, is “going to change the composition of the water and its likelihood to melt sea ice.”

To study the influx of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, researchers recovered datacollecting buoys north of Severnaya Zemlya, a Russian archipelago, in 2015. ILONA GOSZCZKO

In addition, waters from the Atlantic that have long entered the Arctic Ocean and circled down deep are being driven higher onto shallow sea shelves north of Alaska by increasingly intense storms. (The Arctic’s extensive sea ice cover used to tamp down storms.) “What we see at the Chukchi slope in the last few years are these pulses of Atlantic water, which is dreadfully warm, above zero degrees (Celsius), and salty,” says Phyllis Stabeno, a physical oceanographer at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and a codirector of the Synthesis of Arctic Research. On the other side of the Arctic Ocean, between Scandinavia and Russia, a strong layering system that normally prevents warm, Atlantic water from mixing upwards is weakening. Called the halocline, this thick band of cold Arctic water overlies deeper circulating Atlantic water and blocks its heat from reaching the surface of the Arctic Ocean.

InterpNEWS But the halocline is losing its strength, according to Igor Polyakov, a University of Alaska Fairbanks oceanographer. He is lead author of a recent study finding that the Arctic Ocean is becoming more like the Atlantic, as reduced Arctic stratification lets more Atlantic water mix in and prevents sea ice from forming in the winter. “The halocline has grown much weaker in recent years,” Polyakov says, “allowing the Atlantic water heat to penetrate upward and reach the bottom of sea ice.” The phenomenon, which began near Svalbard in the late 1990s, is now accelerating and spreading east into Arctic waters above Siberia.

All signs are that the Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean will only intensify in the coming decades. Researchers point out that data from the remote Arctic Ocean are sparse and long-term observations are lacking, making it hard to pinpoint exact times and rates of change in polar marine ecosystems. The satellite record is only 39 years old and ship-based surveys have been infrequent, so scientists can’t always say for certain how much a population is increasing or extending its range. “You need a time series in places where we don’t have a time series,” says Wassmann. All signs are, however, that the Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean will only intensify in the coming decades as the world continues to warm and the Arctic becomes increasingly ice-free. Arctic temperatures this past February soared to more than 45 degrees Fahrenheit above normal and hovered well above average all season. Winter sea ice was the second-lowest on record across the Arctic Ocean as a whole. And summer ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has declined by about 40 percent since satellite monitoring began. “It’s all linked,” says Moore. “Sea ice is such an important component of the system that once it is radically changed, you’re going to have other changes following that.”

Cheryl Katz is a Northern California-based freelance science writer covering climate change, earth sciences, natural resources, and energy. Her articles have appeared in National Geographic, Scientific American, Eos and Hakai Magazine, among other publications.

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Death toll from record record-breaking breaking heat wave hits 116 in Oregon

July 8, 2021, PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Oregon’s death toll from last weekend’s record record-smashing smashing Pacific Northwest heat wave has risen to 116. The state medical examiner Wednesday released an updated list ooff fatalities from the heat wave that added nine additional deaths. Of the 116 deaths recorded, the youngest victim was 37 and the oldest was 97. In Portland’s Multnomah County, where most of the deaths occurred, officials said many victims had no air conditioners con or fans and died alone.

Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, on Tuesday directed agencies to study how Oregon can improve its response to heat emergencies and enacted emergency rules to protect workers from extreme heat after a farm laborer collapsed and died June 26 at a nursery in rural St. Paul, Oregon. Temperatures shattered previous all-time time records during the three three-day day heat wave that engulfed Oregon, Washington and British Columbia, Canada. Authorities say hundreds of deaths may ultimately ultim be attributed to the heat throughout the region. The heat wave was caused by what meteorologists described as a dome of high pressure over the Northwest and worsened by human-caused caused climate change, which is making such extreme weather events more likely and more intense. Seattle, Portland and many other cities broke all all-time time heat records, with temperatures in some places reaching above 115 degrees Fahrenheit (46 Celsius).

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