FAMILY PLANNING

Jocelyn de Moubray looks into his crystal ball to see what the future holds for breeders who are making plans for mares whose progeny will be sold as yearlings in 2025

BY THE AUTUMN OF 2025, when most of the products of next year’s matings will be presented at yearling sales, while the bloodstock and racing worlds will have new enthusiasms and stars, it is safe to assume that the leading stallions in Europe will still be Dubawi and Frankel.

Dubawi will be nearing the end of his stud career – by then he will be a 23-yearold – but the mares he has already covered should ensure that Darley’s star will continue to compete with Juddmonte’s Frankel for the European sires’ championship.

Despite the differences in their physical build and pedigrees, Dubawi and Frankel have several things in common.

Both were exceptional racehorses who competed in Group races at two and Classic races at three (even if Frankel was better than exceptional), both come from outstanding female families, and both sires are capable of producing horses capable of competing with the best at two and three. as older horses in Europe as well as in the US, Australia and further afield.

The progeny of both tend to act on all types of going and artificial surfaces; the fewer exceptions to this amongst a sire’s progeny then the more chance they have of success.

For both sires their “least good” crop was born in 2017, but COVID and the ten weeks without racing in the spring of 2020 make that a year apart for every sire.

Finally, both, are on the whole, sires of middle-distance horses; both also get top class two-year-olds, but Dubawi does get a slightly higher proportion of milers and fast horses than Frankel.

In the future, Dubawi will cover fewer mares and Frankel is likely to cover more expensive mares, but neither move will stop them from covering Europe’s elite mares.

How the European sires’ table will look in 2025 below the first two is harder predict

A good starting point is to look at those sires whose three-year-olds in 2025 will come from very different parameters than those of 2022.

In his first three years at stud at the Haras d’Etreham the son of Iffraaj covered only just over 150 mares in total.

Few sires undergo more dramatic changes than Coolmore’s Wootton Bassett.

In 2022, the sire had 80 three-year-olds produced from a €20,000 fee of whom 12 or 14 per cent are black-type performers and three (3.5 per cent) are Group 1 performers.

Excellent figures which place him among the best sires in Europe, but in 2021 he covered 244 mares in his first season in Ireland at a fee of €100,000.

Even if Wootton Bassett only maintains his current level of success that would mean 24 black-type performing three-year-olds in 2025 and six Group 1 performers mainly in England and Ireland, and so in all probability a higher profile than today.

Ballylinch Stud’s New Bay’s fee was the same in 2018 as it was three years later, but his early success as a sire meant that he covered twice as many mares and is likely to have 110 three-year-olds in 2025 compared with 56 this year.

The son of Dubawi had a racing career very much in the mould of horses such as Siyouni or Lope De Vega as he retired to stud after a series of disappointing performances.

If New Bay had gone to stud as a four-year-old at his breeder Juddmonte’s Newmarket farm he would have been a very popular sire from the get-go, however, he stayed in training at four, failed to win a race and retired instead to Ballylinch after being syndicated.

New Bay has had very much an improving profile and recent form counts a great deal for attracting mares, and better mares.

Siyouni failed to win as a three-year-old and so started his stud career at €7,000, while Lope De Vega was unplaced on his final three starts and struggled to attract support in his first years at stud.

They alongside New Bay were, of course, top racehorses at their best and New Bay has been a growing success ever since his progeny started to race.

Mehmas: also good with his three-year-olds Mehmas didn’t have to face the problem of losing his racing form as the son of Acclamation was retired to Tally-Ho Stud at the end of his two-year-old career.

Like the top sire Dark Angel, he is a son of Acclamation and out of a mare by Machiavellian.

He retired to stud at two and he has been a success from the start. For the last two years he has been the leading two-year-old sire in Europe by percentage of black-type performers to foals just ahead of No Nay Never, Wootton Bassett and Dark Angel.

He is also a successful sire of three-year-olds leading the sires of his generation in terms of percentage of black-type performers, just ahead of New Bay in this case.

In 2025, Mehmas will have a lot of threeyear-olds on the racecourse and, while his fee went from €12,500 in 2018 to €25,000 in 2021, he covered many more mares – in the region of 290 – and so will have close to 200 two and three-year-olds racing in 2025.

Kodi Bear’s numbers up

There are a few other Irish-based sires whose fee remained broadly unchanged, but who suddenly covered a great deal more mares in 2021 following early success.

Rathbarry Stud’s Kodi Bear covered only around 50 mares in each of his third and fourth years, but in 2021 the son of Kodiac was visited by over 160 mares.

Darley’s son of Lope De Vega, Belardo, who has been transferred to Bearstone Stud for 2023, was a leading first-season sire of 2020 and covered more than 180 mares the following season.

The products of these matings will be three-year-olds in 2025.

Belardo is enjoying something of a revival as Bellabel and Gold Phoenix have both won Grade 2 races in California in 2022.

Kodi Bear

Goken and Galiway on the rise

In France, Haras de Colleville’s Galiway had his first Group 1 winner when Sealiway won the Prix de Jean Luc Lagardère at two in 2020. This, together with several other stakes horses produced off his initial fee of €3,000, meant that in 2021 he covered 170 mares at €12,000, only slightly less than the number he covered in his first three seasons at stud combined.

The son of Galileo’s fourth crop of two-year-olds, and his last from a €3,000 fee, include some promising winners, as well as the stakes performers Showay and Harry Way.

His stud companion Goken, a son of Kendargent, has had a similar transformation as his first crop of two-year -olds to race in 2020 included the Group winners Go Athletico and Axdavali.

His fee correspondingly increased from €5,000 in 2017 to €15,000 in 2021 when he covered 126 mares, far more than he had covered in any of his earlier years at stud. Goken has only 2o of two-year-olds in 2022, but they already include five winners and two Listed winners maintaining his impressive statistics for black-type performers to foals.

Goken has only 20 foals in his third crop of two-year-olds in 2022, but they already include five winners and two Listed winners maintaining his impressive statistics for black-type performers to foals.

Past fee rises will be of influence

If some sires will have far more runners to represent them in 2025 than they have had recently, there are others whose future three-year-olds come after a significant rise in fee.

In Ireland the most notable rises have been for Ballylinch’s Lope De Vega, whose fee went from €60,000 in 2018 to €125,000 in 2021, while the fee for the Coolmore sires No Nay Never and Camelot increased from €25,000 and €30,000 in 2018 to €125,000 and €60,000 in 2021. The fee for Darley’s Night Of Thunder rose from €25,000 in 2018 to €75,000 three years later.

Kingman

In England, Juddmonte’s Kingman’s fee went from £55,000 in 2018 to £150,000 in 2021.

Lope De Vega has been a consistently successful sire since retiring to stud in 2011, but it is easy to forget that he was not a particularly fashionable sire in his early years.

From his 2020 crops onwards the son of Shamardal has covered large numbers of top mares and his results could yet improve over the coming seasons.

His 2022 two-year-olds look particularly promising headed by Silver Knott, runnerup in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but also include the French Group 1 performer Gamestop, and Germany’s leading juvenile filly Quantanamera, as well as some promising maiden winners such as Alashar, Alia’s Rose and Autumn Starlight.

No Nay Never

No Nay Never’s first crop, born in 2016 from a €20,000 fee, was outstanding and the son of Scat Daddy has proved beyond doubt this year that he is one of the best two-yearold sires in Europe.

Camelot’s progress has not been entirely smooth, however the son of Montjeu has consistently produced a high proportion of Group 1 performers and is clearly one of the best middle-distance sires in Europe.

His 2022 three-year-old crop included two of the best colts of their generation – Luxembourg and the Seutsches Derby winner Sammarco – and his two-year-olds include some promising types for 2023 –Bluestocking, Denmark and Alexandroupolis.

The class of 2016 influenced by COVID

Night Of Thunder is another sire whose first crop got him off to a flying start. The market as a whole is a firm believer in the future of the son of Dubawi as his 2022 yearlings averaged around 200,000gns, whereas his first crop had achieved only 50,000gns as an average back in 2018.

His subsequent crops have not been quite of the same standard as the first, and he, like all of the other sires who retired to stud in 2016 – Galiway, Gleneagles, Muhaarar, Golden Horn and Make Believe are some of the other prominent ones – have statistics distorted by the unusual season of 2020 when his first crop were three-year-olds.

When the pattern of racing remains the same it is easier to judge different generations, but in this respect 2020 was an outlier with no racing at all for ten weeks in the spring and a completely changed programme of top races for three-year-olds.

Most sires go through a quiet period when their third and fourth crops are three-yearolds as few breeders take the risk of using sires at this point of their careers.

Juddmonte’s Kingman is no exception, but the success of his huge fifth crop of two-year-olds in 2022, headed by top horses Noble Style, Commissioning, Nostrum and Epictetus, suggests that his record is going to improve significantly between now and 2025.

Above, Adhamo (left) the Grade 1-winning son of Intello – the sire stands at the newly created Haras de Beaumont, and, below, Night Of Thunder whose sales yearlings did well this autumn

A few names which struck me when looking at these statistics include Haras de Colleville’s Kendargent. He is a veteran and will turn 20 in 2023, but since the number of mares he covers has been reduced, his results have been consistently good.

The outliers

Intello will stand at the new Haras de Beaumont from 2023 for his fourth season in a row in France. In any event Intello has been a consistently successful sire.

The COIVD year of 2020 was difficult for the whole of the racing and bloodstock worlds and these statistics suggest that Coolmore’s Gleneagles and Muhaarar, the former Nunnery Stud-based sire who now stands at the Haras des Faunes, whose first crop were three-year-olds in 2020 are far better sires than their early results suggested.

Finally, a thought for Germany where, with only 700 mares covered a year, every stallion is struggling to make mark. With Adlerflug gone, Soldier Hollow at the end of his career and Torquator Tasso only starting out in 2023, the country badly needs a new proven sire.

One who could yet come through is Protectionist, the son of Monsun standing at Gestüt Rottgen. His first crop included the genuine Group 1 performer Amazing Grace and his third crop of two-year-olds is headed by spectacular debut winner Aspiranta.

Gleneagles