Habs Geographical 2022

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HabsGeographical

GEOGRAPHICAL FUTURES

2022 edition

There is no Planet B

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Habs Geographical 2022

This year’s edition has a special focus on Geographical Futures with all written contributions coming from students at Haberdashers’ Boys’ School and Haberdashers’ Girls’ School, in particular the Habs Geographical committee. The students from both schools have worked collaboratively throughout the process; choosing the areas of focus for the magazine, working together to research key topics and produce the finished articles. Through peer review they have refined and edited their work to produce the articles published here.

The team also publicised this opportunity to their peers to contribute cross curricular articles. which produced some thought-provoking contributions.

A group of Year 10 students from the Girls’ School produced a SWAY on Global Citizenship which investigates our role in the climate crisis. Students from the Boys’ School wrote articles on climate change following COP 26 in November 2021. Some were selected for publication. The articles and essays contained in this publication are all based on the students’ own research and opinions.

We would like to thank the students for all their hard work and contributions to the 2022 edition.

4. To what extent do environmental policies limit the development of LICs?

Anant - Lower Sixth 6. The effects of melting ice on our future.

Avital - Lower Sixth 9. Is China leading the next scramble for Africa?

Leo - Lower Sixth 11. Energy diversification in India.

Claudia - Lower Sixth 14. How significant are electric cars for the future of climate change mitigation?

Nik - Lower Sixth 17. Are trade blocs essential to the productivity and efficiency of an economy?

Rachel - Lower Sixth 19. The battle against the changing environment – flooding.

Raghav - Lower Sixth 24. The future of the water crisis and water scarcity.

Reese - Lower Sixth 27. The shrinking peninsula. Sia - Lower Sixth 30. Effects of Covid 19 on globalisation of the economy

Uma - Lower Sixth 33. SWAY from Year 10: Global CitizenshipClimate Focus

Year 10 Girls’ School students 38. The protests of COP26: Why are the people dissatisfied?

Toby - Year 9 40. To what extent should we engineer the climate?

Ibrahim- Year 9

42. How can a Habs’ student’s routine contribute to climate change?

Krish - Year 9

44. While mitigation might save the planet, it is adaptation, preparing for climate shocks, that will save millions of lives. To what extent do you agree?

Harman - Year 9

47. Why might the oceans be crucial to fighting climate change?

Jonathan - Year 9

50. To what extent should we engineer the climate?

Saul - Year 9

52. Should we be eating bugs and insects rather than beef to help us avoid disastrous climate change? - Literature Review

Grace - Lower Sixth

55. What does the future hold for global income inequality?

Anant and Reese - Lower Sixth

58. What is Russia’s aim with Ukraine? (Written May 2022)

Avital and Leo - Lower Sixth

62. How will future global migration patterns change in the face of new political climates?

Claudia and Nik - Lower Sixth

66. Recent natural disasters

Raghav and Sia - Lower Sixth

Contents
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To what extent do environmental policies limit the development of LICs?

As countries develop, climate change becomes an increasingly prevalent problem. Measures in the past have been taken to slow down the rate of climate change, however they have proved to be not as effective as initially hoped; hence as environmental policies are tightened, the opportunity cost that arises for LICs increases and therefore hints at a wider question of the fairness of these policies. In this article, the limitations, and benefits of environmental policies to LICs will be assessed, with an overall judgement at the end.

There are two main reasons why environmental policies hinder and may even negate the development of LICs. The first is that they are fundamentally unfair and lead

to LICs industrialising at a much slower rate than their developed counterparts, such as European countries including Britain. In Britain, the Industrial Revolution began in 1750 and ended in 1830; a period in which output was fuelled by the introduction of steam power and coal power. This carried on until Britain was a developed nation compared to others, such that in 1973 its economic growth was 6.5%. Due to the rapid industrialisation that occurred during the Industrial Revolution, major environmental impacts ensued. Before 1750, the UK’s annual carbon dioxide emission quantity was only 9.4 million metric tons; however, in the space of merely ten years, this grew exponentially to over 100 million metric tons. This is starkly

different to how in COP22, in Marrakech in 2016, 24 members pledged

Hence, due to this, LICs will not have the opportunity to industrialise at a rate at which the current HICs did. This is because to reduce carbon emissions, they would need to drift away from the cheaper and more available fossil fuels and move towards more expensive and inefficient renewable energy resources.

As renewable energy resources are more expensive, most LICs

to use 100% renewable energy by 2050.
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Photo by Nicholas Doherty on Unsplash

would not have an infrastructure in place ready to support the use of renewable energy, let alone in such a quantity that it would be the only source of energy in the next 30 years. Renewable energy such as solar power, has very high transport costs, requires a low population density and a large area to be situated upon and requires a steady flow of money to operate and be maintained. Although through policies, more developed nations have pledged to give funds to less developed nations in order to help them to establish a renewable framework, most often fall under the pledged amount to donate to LICs, and furthermore, the money input into the economy of LICs could be used instead to increase investment in capital goods within the economy- instead of developing an energy system which will take much longer to produce the same level of output as its fossil fuel counterparts (of which HIC’s such as UK and USA had unlimited and unregulated access to during their period of industrialisation). During COP26, Alok Sharma (President of COP26), advocated for a policy in which coal is left behind as time progresses, however, this has been received with much dissent by some countries. Developing nations, such as India, have not agreed to this policy, and are refusing to embrace ideas of carbon neutrality, as coal is the primary energy contributor in India, with 56.9% of India’s energy stemming from coal.

China, the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, refused to attend the COP26 event

for the broad reason that President Xi Jinping believes that other countries with more responsibility for historical emissions should follow these policies, instead of developing nations in which

fossil fuels are required for a cost- effective industrialisation, to sustain their rapidly growing population.

However, on the other hand, environmental policies in fact benefit the development of LICs. As the world shifts to a more carbon neutral and renewable energy frontier, investments in fossil fuels have fallen, hence incurring an increase in prices. This means that over time, LICs will have to spend more money on fossil fuels, with less support from investors, hence decreasing the effectiveness of fossil fuels as opposed to renewable energy. Due to environmental policies, more investments will be made into renewable energy, reducing the price, hence making it easier for LICs to access. Also, due to compliance of LICs with these policies, diplomatic relations between LICs and HICs increase, especially via HICs providing financial support to LICs. This can in turn stimulate investment in the future by the HIC into the LICC as the LIC may have become more export friendly due to adopting a lower carbon orientated infrastructure, hence propelling the economy of the LIC.

Also, due to environmental policies making LICs invest in a more sustainable method of development through increasing renewable energy use, the quality of life of the citizens within the nation will increase. This is because as more renewable energy is within the infrastructure of the LIC access to electricity and energy security will increase, as the LICs are no longer dependent on imports of fossil fuel energy. Due to this, they will also be protected against price changes issued by importers upon the fossil fuels.

Finally, due to fewer carbon emissions from LICs , agricultural productivity may improve as a healthier environment for vegetation growth is stimulated. Due to more renewable and

environmentally friendly methods, agricultural output can be increased in a more efficient way, hence addressing food security concerns in many LICs.

To conclude, although environmental policies may be deemed unfair by some developing nations, as they argue that already developed nations had the environmental freedom that current developing nations lack, hence were able to industrialise much quicker, overall, environmental policies do not hinder the development of LICs. This is because climate change is an important matter which will have an increasing effect on developing nations’ economies as time passes. If no policies were in place that did not urge LICs to adopt a more environmentally friendly stance, prices of fossil fuels would rise to a point where LICs would not be able to cope, leading to a crisis where LICs would have no energy ‘backup’, as they failed to invest in a renewable infrastructure. Renewable energy not only allows export led growth of LICs with HICs, but they also stimulate agricultural productivity and help to tackle problems such as food scarcity in LICs.

Bibliography

• Issues in Science and Technology- Environmental Policy for Developing Countries

• Long Term Climate StrategiesLow Carbon Futures in Least Developed Countries

• United Nations- LDC PortalEnergy Access and Main Challenges in the LDCs

• LSE- Low Carbon Development For the Least Developed Countries

• IIED- A new COP26 decision for long term strategies

• The Economist- COP-out

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The effects of melting ice on our future?

It is often speculated that climate change is causing ice loss, and that ice loss is creating a positive feedback effect. As the large areas of ice at our poles are shrinking, so is the ability of the Albedo Effect to reflect rays of radiation from the sun, which helps to cool the earth

and maintain temperatures. The loss of our cryosphere will cause substantial changes and will continue to have a significant impact on us.

The cryosphere refers to all the frozen water elements on our planet, not limited to ice and

snow, but including glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. These stores maintain the earth’s temperature through the albedo effect and ocean currents and provide habitat to thousands of species of flora and fauna. Naturally, the recent drastic decline in the cryosphere has

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sparked questions and research into the effects of such ice loss and the impact it could have on not only wildlife future, but also our future on this planet.

The most direct effect of shrinking ice sheets, both at each pole and in-between, will be devastating species extinction. The loss of any species poses a threat to both humankind and the animal kingdom, as the removal of any animal will cause the breakup of food chains, causing further extinctions and crumbling ecosystems.

As the land mass of ice sheets decreases, so does the home of 1,700 plant and 48 land mammal species including the grizzly bear, musk ox, snowy owl and polar bear, accustomed only to the tundra biome, as well as the temporary home of millions of migrating birds. Species more adapted to slightly warmer climates, such as the taiga biome will invade their habitats, increase competition for food and resources, forcing out the tundra’s species leading to many extinctions. This will shatter the food web at every level, and the entire ecosystem.

The ice sheets which make up the north and south pole serve us hugely through the Albedo Effect – the large, white planes reflect radiation from the sun (as light, shiny objects reflect radiation well and absorb it badly), which cools the earth’s climate and keeps it at a constant temperature. However, as the ice shrinks, so will its ability to reflect solar radiation, and the stabilisation of our climate. This,

in turn, will further heat up the earth as it changes the earth’s climate budget, increasing the consequences of climate change. A further example of a positive feedback loop created as a consequence of ice loss, is that of melting permafrost. This results in the release of greenhouse gas emissions; consequently, the climate will warm further, inducing further cryosphere loss.

Permafrost is a thick layer of soil which permanently remains below freezing point and is regarded as part of the earth’s cryosphere. However, just as increasing temperatures cause loss of ice sheets, it also causes loss of permafrost and with it, the release of toxic chemicals. Such include dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), which can contaminate ground reserves and lakes, as well as mercury, both of which microorganisms feed on, and subsequently release carbon dioxide and methane, two highly polluting greenhouse gases. Not only does this have a destructive effect on our climate, it also harms flora and fauna. DDT for example causes reproductive disorders, immune system disorders and weakens shells for animals.

Then, there is the issue posed

by the melted ice. What form will it take? Where will it go? And what effect will this have on us? Thawed ice from the cryosphere takes the form of freshwater once it has melted, and accumulates in the oceans, the atmosphere, and throughout the water cycle. Much of the melted ice will enter the ocean by way of streams and rivers, and gather, increasing sea levels by 4cm, and adding 2.6% of water to the ocean because freshwater is less dense, and therefore has a larger volume than the equivalent mass of saltwater. During the past century, sea levels rose at an astonishing rate, and the rate is expected to continue to increase over the next century, expedited by thawing ice sheets. Due to 80% of the world’s population living within 62 miles of a coast, some effects of the rising sea levels will include large settlements becoming submerged, displacing thousands of people in the near future, as well as coastal ecosystems becoming overwhelmed. To cite one example of this, coastal mangrove forests, which create vital protection for tropical coastlines could be destroyed. Undeniably, rising sea levels will be the cause of many more violent and frequent weather events, alongside increased water vapour in the atmosphere.

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Natural weather events are occurring more frequently and with a higher magnitude; this will have a huge effect on our coastal and low-lying cities in the future. In the UK, since 2000, the risk of flooding has increased by a quarter, and by 2030, millions more people will be in danger. This is a direct effect of rising sea levels, and increased moisture in the air because of thawing ice and will have many dire consequences, including increased coastal erosion, destruction of buildings and infrastructure, as well as contributing to concerns for the mental and physical health of our population. To combat these effects, £4.4 billion of taxpayers’ hard-earned money is being spent on coastal defences, in a desperate attempt to offer

protection. However, more frequent, and extreme weather events is not the only way that our lives will be hugely affected; the increased flow of melted ice into our oceans will also induce climate changes, particularly in the UK.

The thermohaline circulation is the process by which the earth’s heat is redistributed by way of ocean currents linking up the whole globe, driven by the different densities of water near the equator, versus the poles. This process, specifically the gulf stream (ocean current that flows from the Gulf of Mexico towards north-western Europe) is responsible for the climate we experience in Western Europe, which is much warmer than it would be without it. However, it could be in danger, because, as the Arctic ice caps melt, more and more freshwater enters our oceans. This water is of a very low density, and as it continues to melt, it will cause the North Atlantic to become lighter, preventing it from sinking, and driving the ocean

currents. This will disrupt, and at worst completely halt the thermohaline circulation system, leading to the UK’s average temperature cooling by 5 to10 degrees Celsius. The UK would fall victim to ice storms whilst rainfall would decrease hugely, putting our agriculture at risk.

The cryosphere is melting at an unprecedented rate, a rate which is only going to increase in the future. It will continue to have many significant effects on our lives and whilst it is too late to stop ice melting completely, we are going to have to manage the consequences as they present themselves. However, there is a way to delay the thawing of ice and ensure that we never reach the worst-case scenarios presented by this problem – reducing our use of fossil fuels. A green future is one of technological advancements but also environmentally friendly behaviours; both together will work as a step in the right direction in reducing the impacts of global ice loss and climate change

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Floods, hurricanes, storms – water is invading our land at a faster rate than ever before.

Is China leading the next scramble for Africa?

To be able to explain how China is leading another ‘Scramble for Africa’ one must understand what the ‘Scramble for Africa’ was. During a period (approximately) between 1884 and 1914 the Berlin (or Congo) conference was held. This was where some European powers portioned Africa’s previously undiscovered land for themselves. Such was their greed; it was thought to be diplomatic when they decided to not argue over who got which land since there was apparently plenty to go around. Yet, indigenous Africans were not given a voice and as a result ethnic groups were divided. For example, in the Horn of Africa the powers split Somalis into French, British, Italian and Ethiopian Somalia.

Furthermore, the improvised ‘straight line’ borders that are in Africa show the haste at which Africa was divided. The key point is that the Europeans cared primarily about economic opportunity, so where people may have led pastoral or nomadic lifestyles, they were now confined to smaller areas due to the divisions. Tribes that previously led lifestyles that used vast quantities of land were now forced to compete for resources with other people kept close to borders.

Currently, Africa is the fastest urbanising region in the world. The region has a larger volume of rural to urban migration than India and China and by 2050 the population is forecast to double. Moreover,

80% of this projected growth is going to happen in urban areas with an approximate increase of 1.3 billion to the urban headcount. The disadvantage of this is the shortterm sprawl of people is areas such as the Makoko slum in Nigeria, where a vast number of people live on houses resting on stilts. This waterfront slum had a population between 150,000 – 250,000 in 2014 and currently the figure is not known, but the slum is very visible from the Third mainland bridge and the population would have at least doubled since then. However, the International Monetary Fund has named Africa as the world’s fastest growing region, and it is predicted to become a $5 trillion dollar economy. This is partially a result of the Chinese involvement in Africa.

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file-20200518-83397-ckplvs.jpg (926×520) (theconversation.com)
Leo

The founder of MORE architecture Daan Roggeveen (a firm in Amsterdam) said that “Right now you could say that any big project in African cities that is higher than 3 floors or roads that are longer than 3 kilometres are most likely built and engineered by the Chinese.” He made quite a bold statement about Africa’s economic position, yet why would China be involved in the first place? When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) first came to power in 1949, it was not supported by other nations. Subsequently the United States cut diplomatic ties with Mao Zedong’s government since the previous Kuomintang (KMT) had been forced out of government. After this Mao drove China into the ground with the “Great Leap Forward” since the centralised economic system he enforced did not allow for a competitive market or efficient pricing in the Chinese economy, and this was worsened by the Communism and Socialism that was adopted by the government. However, after Deng Xiaoping came into power, the Chinese economy boomed since he relaxed some of the rules around material wealth and personal freedom. Years later, when China was already now in a good economic position, President Xi Jinping started investing in China to boost their already phenomenal growth. They did this through extensive political lobbying and one by one each country started giving confidence to the People’s Republic, and to reward their support China paid in concrete and steel by building extensive infrastructure.

The Belt and Road Initiative was a development strategy created by Xi Jinping and was adopted in 2013, where he invested in 70 different countries, a substantial portion of which were in Africa. According to Xi Jinping it is the “greatest” part of the CCP, and it allows him to have a more prominent role in global affairs. It is the more modern Silk Road, referring to overland road and rail routes through Central Asia and Indo-Pacific Sea routes.

It allows China to insert copious quantities of resources to fuel the large amount of infrastructure being built in Africa and other countries.

It has helped create super-ports, skyscrapers, railroads, and airports as well as much more. In Africa it is successful, as China is Africa’s biggest trade partner, with SinoAfrican trade making over $200 billion annually. Furthermore, China has approximately

It is expected that the trade ties will remain robust for years to come. Examples of projects that China have funded are the NairobiMombasa railway and the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railways

The significance of these is that other nations are losing their grip on African investment, with Europe reducing their involvement from 44% to 34% and America reducing their involvement from 24% to 6.7%, leaving China to become the primary investor in Africa.

But is this secure? Possibly not. African governments are dreaming themselves into vast amounts of infrastructure induced debt. The Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway cost Ethiopia a quarter of its annual budget in 2016. Furthermore, Nigeria needed to renegotiate their deal with China as they were simply unable to pay. Kenya’s 80% Chinese financed railway from Mombasa to Nairobi has gone 4 times over budget – costing upwards of 6% of their GDP. A startling statistic is that the International Monetary Fund found that China owned more than 15% of Africa’s external debt. China is operating new form colonialism, where they are debt trapping Africa for economic gain. The worst part is that African nations do need the infrastructure. President Xi Jinping said, “inadequate infrastructure is believed to be the biggest bottleneck to Africa’s development,” and he is mostly correct.

Therefore, China is leading the second scramble for Africa, essentially extracting resources like the Europeans did in the past but in a much more subtle way.

References:

Colonial Borders in Africa: Improper Design and its Impact on African Borderland Communities | Africa Up Close (wilsoncenter.org)

What China Is Really Up To In Africa (forbes.com)

Explainer: Why Did The Great Leap Forward Fail - Profolus

Image Source: https://images.theconversation.com/files/335711/original/file-20200518-83397-ckplvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format& w=926&fit=clip

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10,000 firms operating in Africa at any one time and since 2005 the value of Chinese businesses has gone up to $2 trillion. Recently China has invested another $1 billion into the Belt and Road fund as well as gifting a $60 billion aid package to Africa.

Energy diversification in India

Claudia (Lower Sixth)

TThere is both a close and important link between deploying a range of new types of renewable energy in India and advancing the country’s already rapid economic development. Diversification in this sector would improve energy security and accessibility in the country, as well as mitigating the effects of climate change. India is currently on the path to becoming one of the world’s leading producers of green energy, most probably as a

method of combatting emissions and environmental degradation from India’s rapid economic development and could soon supersede countries like Iceland and Albania. India already has one of the most diversified power sectors in the world with sources of power generation such as coal, lignite, natural gas, oil, hydro, and nuclear power, along with wind, solar, and agricultural and domestic waste. This clear diversity of energy sources may owe to its huge

demand from India’s economy and population, combined with the vast nature of the country and variations in resources, technology, and infrastructure between different areas. India is beginning to tread an even more diverse and renewable energy path post-2015 Paris Agreement, with investments in solar energy rising and those in thermal power plants slowing down. In the future, the already increasing demand for electricity in India will rise

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even further, placing even more pressure on the existing energy generation capacity; massive additions will be required. The future of energy sources is becoming a contested issue and is under the spotlight now more than ever as the world begins to further advance its focus on tackling climate change at an international level, evidenced most recently by the COP26 summit in Glasgow; the main result of which being projected reduced reliance on coal. The sources of energy in India will become more prominent as the country continues to develop.

There are several advantages for future diversification of energy sources in India; growing price competitiveness is one of the main reasons behind the diversification efforts. The renewable energy sector has seen huge advancement in the whole value chain, especially the technology leap enabled by innovation. The maturing global market also has the potential to drive down the prices of renewables rapidly. This, combined with the abundance of skilled and trained workers in India and the government’s backup for the start-up segment, means India could reach a point where its need for energy can be satiated using renewable sources. Diversifying the energy sector to include a larger range of renewable sources is also significantly more beneficial in the long-term.

equipment’s ‘shelf lives’ are over, the newly upgraded solar modules or wind turbines will be more cost effective and efficient, therefore, renewables have the capacity to continue generating electricity maintaining their efficiency, which in turn further boosts competitiveness. Lastly, renewable energy, although not in abundance and completely reliable, is domestic and available in most places, whilst oil and gas sources are limited to only certain regions of the world. Diversification ensures security of energy supply and can reduce reliance on imported sources. It would replace foreign energy imports with domestically produced electricity which will also widen and diversify India’s economy, by allowing for growth of a new, highly technological industry, which had been previously existed only overseas.

‘Despite the pandemic… the government in becoming clearer that energy transition is on track even as the economic recovery continues to take shape’ says Aarti Khosla, founder and director of Climate Trends, as Delhi based strategic communications initiative. Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at the UN Climate Ambition Summit at the end of 2020, declared India was on track to achieve Paris targets and ultimately exceed its ambitious renewable energy target.

Despite all of this projected success for energy diversification in India, there remain significant challenges, mainly due to the exponential annual population growth in India. Although the country has achieved fast and remarkable economic growth, energy is still scarce.

Once current power plants’

As India sets out to reduce its consumption of fossil fuels like coal, which currently account for most of the country’s powergenerating capacity and diversify its energy basket to include a wider range of renewable energy sources, it will face challenges. In 2020, bids for new solar projects hit record lows in India, affirming that coal is no longer the cheapest electricity source. The country also addressed the future limitations of intermittent wind and solar by awarding supply contracts for flexible renewable power, as well as favouring cheap renewables on the grid, causing coal use to fall. All of this has put India in a strong position to prevent fossil fuel use seeing a continued growth, but despite this focus on the clean energy market, power demand is expected to triple in India by 2040 as India’s population continues to achieve upward mobility. However, there may be a cause for optimism as experts state they are starting to see a future for India in which coal is no longer dominant.

Strong economic growth is escalating the increasing demand for energy, combined with a yearly population growth of 1.18% and environmental deterioration means India is facing the challenge of sustainable development.

The intermittent, unpredictable nature of the electricity generated by wind and solar, compared to the stable, on-demand flow of power from traditional fossil fuel generation requires fundamental changes to how India invest in its energy grid. Not being able to fully rely on these forms of variable renewable energy will mean an increase in emissions and costs in the short term and slow the long-term growth of renewable energy in the future. Furthermore, the renewable energy market requires explicit policies and legal procedures to enhance the attention of investors; the absence of comprehensive policies and regulation frameworks in India prevents the adoption of renewable technologies. Government subsidies for example are adequately provided to

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The average wind or solar farm is built for 25 to 30 years of operation, even longer in the case of hydro power plants.

conventional fossil fuel companies, making diversification more difficult through sending the message that power from fossil fuels is of a higher priority than that from renewables.

Overall, India has been successful in achieving its post-2015 Paris Agreement aims of attempting to end its reliance on coal and investing in and diversifying its renewable energy sources. This has an array of benefits, from inevitably tackling climate change to ensuring long-term energy security. However, India’s exponential population growth and rapid economic development, projected

References

Jonathan Kay. (2021). Tangled Wires: Preparing India’s Power Sector for the Clean Energy Transition. Available: https://carnegieendowment. org/2021/08/04/tangled-wirespreparing-india-s-power-sector-forclean-energy-transition-pub-85072. Last accessed 23rd October 2021.

Charles Rajesh Kumar. J & M. A. Majid. (2020). Renewable energy for sustainable development in India: current status, future prospects, challenges, employment, and

to continue to rise in the future, will present challenges to pursuing sustainable development strategies ultimately due to the scarcity of energy and unpredictable nature of renewable energy sources such as wind. There is also the future social implications of ending coal use in India

and for many, the low skilled jobs that it provides are their only potential source of income for survival. Moreover, India’s government could pose a challenge in itself; it needs to encourage more funds and private investors to support research and innovation activities in the expensive and high value renewable sector, which would allow diversification to occur at a faster rate.

investment opportunities. Available: https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral. com/articles/10.1186/s13705-0190232-1. Last accessed 23rd October 2021.

Julia Pyper. (2021). How India’s Renewable Energy Sector Survived and Thrived in a Turbulent 2020. Available: https://www. greentechmedia.com/articles/ read/india-solar-energy-transitionpandemic-2020. Last accessed 21st October 2021.

IANS. (2021). India shines in energy

transition with strong renewable path. Available: https://www.businessstandard.com/article/economy-policy/ india-shines-in-energy-transitionwith-strong-renewablepath-121081400903_1.html. Last accessed 21st October 2021.

Vikram Aggarwal. (2017). Why India needs to further diversify its energy basket. Available: https:// energy.economictimes.indiatimes. com/energy-speak/why-india-needsto-further-diversify-its-energybasket/2181. Last accessed 19th October 2021.

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to consider;
almost 4 million people in India are employed directly and indirectly in the coal industry,

How significant are electric cars for the future of climate change mitigation in the UK?

Nik (Lower Sixth)

Ever wondered how much CO2 is emitted by cars or whether electric vehicles really are a cleaner alternative?

Transport is responsible for nearly 30% of the EU’s total CO 2 emissions, of which 72% comes

from road transportation. As part of efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, the EU has set a goal of reducing emissions from transport by 60% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. However, over the years these figures have reduced significantly, although it is still

damaging for the environment and action needs to be taken quickly.

Electric cars are increasingly becoming a popular solution to help reduce the extremely damaging situation with transport

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Photo by Michael Marais on Unsplash

emissions. The UK government, in November 2020, took a historic step in trying to reach the goal of being net zero by 2050 as they announced that they would stop selling new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. With this initiative it would mean that the UK would be on track to become the fastest G7 country to decarbonise cars and vans. This would mean that in the UK all new cars and vans will be fully zero emission by 2035. The government are hoping to achieve this by investing £1.8 billion to support more zero emission vehicles being produced and more charge points around cities. This expenditure will not only reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality but will also provide extra jobs in the industry. The transport secretary Grant Shapps said, “bringing forward the phase- out date could create 40000 extra jobs by 2030, particularly in our manufacturing heartlands of the Northeast and across the Midlands and will see emissions reductions equivalent to taking more than four million cars off the road”.

However, a current issue which

is making people reluctant to purchase a new electric car is that they are still relatively expensive compared to petrol vehicles due to the new nature of the technology involved.

require petrol or diesel to run so doesn’t produce any emissions. Another type is a plug-in hybrid which mainly runs on electricity but also have a fuel engine too. An electric vehicle’s battery is made up thousands of battery cells. It can be charged using a home charger or fast charger where those cells power through electrical chemistry and then deliver power to a single or set of electric motors. The Government is increasing its’ commitment to help the sector transition towards zero emissions vehicles by boosting the development of clean, green technologies for zero emission vehicles in the UK including battery packs and recycling infrastructure and super lightweight components.

By making the new vehicles more affordable the government expects to see an increase in them being produced and purchased.

Currently, there are different types of electric cars, one which is the plug in electric where the car runs purely on electricity and doesn’t

Polestar, a new electric car brand, became one of the first car manufacturers to release publicly a comparative life cycle assessment that compares its own car, the Polestar 2, to the petrol only version of the Volvo XC40. The results showed that the Polestar requires more energy to produce due to the number of batteries and electronics required. Combining material extraction and

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Therefore, the government pledged £582 million in grants for those buying zero or ultralow emission vehicles to make them cheaper and encourage people to switch to electric.
Carbon footprint of Polestar 2 and the XC40 ICE

processing, manufacturing and the transport stages, the study estimates the carbon footprint of the Polestar at 26.2 tonnes CO2-equivalent at point it ends production. This compares to the XC40 where it is only 16.1 tonnes. This suggests that the initial impact of producing electric cars was more than 60 percent higher than the petrol model.

However, the figures over the complete product lifecycle of 200,000km are different. With a typical European electricity mix, the equivalent CO 2 production during the use phase is reduced by around two thirds compared to the XC40; switch exclusively to wind power, and it’s less than a tenth of the impact (0.4 tonnes for the EV versus 41 tonnes for the petrol car). The end-of-life treatment is fractionally less impactful for the EV too, accounting for 0.5 tonnes of CO2-equivalent, as opposed to 0.6 tonnes. Combine all these factors, and the lifecycle carbon footprint of the Polestar 2 is around 28 per cent lower when

running on a standard European electricity mix, or 53 per cent lower on wind power alone. This life cycle assessment shows that even though the production requires more energy, the benefits of being electric mean that is has a significantly better impact on the environment as it emits less CO 2

The transition to EVs will bring significant benefits and present market opportunities, particularly as the UK seeks to recover from COVID-19. One obvious benefit is the improved air quality as air pollution is the top environmental risk to human health in the UK. A full shift to electric vehicles by 2050 will reduce nitrogen dioxide and non-methane volatile organic compounds which is responsible for asthma and lung problems. An independent study from the Climate Change Committee showed that air quality and noise impacts going electric could also result in annual benefits close to 0.1% GDP in 2030. Another reason why this transition could be beneficial is that it provides a

new market opportunity for the UK to become a world leader in the development and production of electric vehicles since they made their intentions clear in wanting to be net zero by 2050.

To conclude, I think that the future of the UK is going full electric on the roads as outlined by the government and will be a significant on it becoming net zero country as it will help significantly reduce its’ carbon emissions.

References

The-UKs-transition-to-electric-vehicles.pdf (theccc.org.uk)

https://www-jstor-org.lonlib.idm.oclc.org/ stable/pdf/24891965.pdf?refreqid=excel sior%3A124a0a4a7ac47a3ff6de1d43b 9c0d1e3

(PDF) Electric cars: Are they solution to reduce CO2 emission? (researchgate.net)

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ government-takes-historic-step-towardsnet-zero-with-end-of-sale-of-new-petroland-diesel-cars-by-2030

Measuring the true impact of electric vehi cles | The Engineer The Engineer

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2:
on Unsplash
Polestar
Severin Demchuk

trade

Trade blocs are voluntary international organisations that exist for trading purposes, in order to bring greater economic interdependence and security to the member nations. Typically, members of an individual trade bloc are often located within the same geographic area to enable freer flows of trade with neighbouring allies. Agreements have been drawn up which allow state boundaries to be crossed with ease by flows of goods and

capital, by the removal of internal tariffs. Examples of trade blocs include the European Union (EU), ASEAN and the USMCA amongst others.

Trade blocs continue to bring benefits for transnational businesses, access to larger markets are one such benefit, enabling firms to grow as barriers to intra-community trade are removed. For example, in 2004 Tesco gained access to 75 million extra customers when 10 new nations joined the

EU. Firms that have a comparative advantage in the production of a particular product or service also prosper, such as French wine makers that have a competitive advantage due to their rich soil and therefore produce a superior product which is widely consumed across a tariff-free Europe. Furthermore, trade blocs create an enlarged market which increases demand and therefore raises the volume of production and lowers manufacturing costs per unit. This results in an improved economy

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Are
blocs essential to the productivity and efficiency of an economy?
Photo by Severin Demchuk on Unsplash

of scale meaning products are sold more cheaply, consequently sales rise even further for the most successful firms. Moreover, smaller national firms within a trade bloc can merge to form bigger TNCs making their operations more cost effective. Therefore, trade blocs bring a huge plethora of economic advantages, strengthening economies and the businesses within them.

Whilst there are many advantages of trade blocs there are also various downsides of membership. If domestic industries are uncompetitive, they exit the market resulting in an increase in unemployment. Moreover, due to the increased economic dependence and interconnectivity of economies within a trade bloc, if there is an economic crisis, such as that of 2008, the crisis of one member country can spread to the economies of others. Furthermore, the loss of state sovereignty may cause conflict with domestic economic interests of some member states, such as that mirrored in the UK exit of the EU. Often decisions with trade blocs may be in favour of larger member economies. Finally, trade blocs can distort the benefits of world trade, as inefficient firms within a bloc can still survive and are protected from competition from more efficient firms outside the bloc.

The success of trade blocs for member economies is often recognised globally. This is demonstrated by the recent creation of the AfCFTA – the world’s largest trade bloc by the number of countries participating, which was made effective in 2019. The AfCFTA presents a major opportunity for African countries to develop and industrialize, potentially bringing up to 30 million people out of extreme poverty. Therefore, it is clear that the leaders of these countries do recognise the improvements a trading bloc can make to their economy’s productivity and efficiency.

However interestingly, some of the world’s strongest trade blocs were created much more recently than one would expect – within the last 30 years, this may seem surprising because of the huge economic prosperity trade blocs have created. For example, the EU was founded in 1993 and NAFTA the following year. Despite their trade bloc’s recent creation, many member countries became developed economies over a century before; Great Britain post-industrial revolution (1760-1840) as well as the United States in the 1830/40s. Therefore, whilst trade blocs are fundamental they are not the only reason for economic growth and prosperity as many countries have only used trade blocs to further develop their economies.

Furthermore, the question surrounding the utility of trade blocs is further debated with the pivotal exist of Britain from the European Union.

major post-Brexit pact with the hope of expanding trade links with the Asia-Pacific. The deal covers trade liberalisation through agricultural products, services trade, and it enhances mobility and opens both countries to financial services and investment. This shows how not only trade blocs can cause economic growth but other independent trade deals and government policies can also drive this growth. The UK has set an example whereby they have not experienced any major economic slumps due to Brexit, however, obviously economic growth was greatly impacted by Covid.

It is clear that trade blocs work to improve members’ economies; however, they alone are not the only essential component stimulating productivity within an economy, instead it is caused by a combination of factors. Focusing on Britain, it is clear the EU has benefitted the country historically but looking into the future, being within a trade bloc was deemed non essential to our economy; instead, a whole range of economic policies are including new negotiations and agreements with a range of countries near and far.

Bibliography

It halted the financial support Britain offered to struggling member countries, with the focus instead on its own economic growth. However, the effects of this are still currently being seen, fuel shortages, drivers and secondary industry workers shortages resulting in delays, lack of supply and consequently higher prices are all a consequence of leaving the trading bloc. This has led us to question how educated voters actually were about the value of trade blocs at the time of the vote.

On the 28th of June 2021, Boris Johnson signed a UK-Australia trade deal which was our first

Pearson Edexcel A-level textbook https://storymaps.arcgis.com/sto ries/9cf98320c8ca48fa841b969d dc496b97

https://www.tutor2u.net/business/refer ence/what-is-a-trading-bloc https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/ Global_economics/Trading_blocs.html https://www.history.com/topics/industri al-revolution/industrial-revolution https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/ trade/publication/the-african-continen tal-free-trade-area

https://www.economicshelp.org/macroe conomics/economic-growth/causes-eco nomic-growth/ https://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit-0 https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/glob al-research/uk-australia-trade-deal

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In 2016 Britain voted to leave the EU trade bloc which ended free movement of trade and people between Britain and Europe.

The battle against the changing environment - flooding

Firstly, I am going to address the misconception that many of us have about environmental change: the environment has always changed throughout Earth’s history, it has not started because of humans. The greenhouse effect is not caused by humans. The reason life exists on Earth is because of it. The human effects on environmental change are called the enhanced greenhouse effect. The environment is, however,

is reaching more extremes and is becoming more unpredictable.

Air temperatures are rising because of increased greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, industries and supplying energy. The emissions are in form of Carbon Dioxide, Nitrogen, Chlorofluorocarbons, and Methane which are forming a layer in the atmosphere insulating the earth by trapping greenhouse gases. The

earth naturally warms and cools on a cyclical basis however, emissions caused by humans is resulting in only warming.

The reason why the environment is changing around us is due to ‘climate change’ driven by humans. This article will address what we can do to protect people from the consequences of our actions.

Chri s Gal l a gh e r o n U n s pl sa h 19

Flooding

Flooding is one of the worst types of natural disaster, it is amongst the deadliest along with earthquakes. Flooding is caused by increased rainfall and rapid snowmelt, sea floods associated with storm surges and flash floods following landslides, dam, and glacier bursts.

run-off or overland flow. Overland flow is the fastest type of flow in the hydrological cycle which means that the rainwater reaches the river very quickly. This adds to the volume of the river, and it will soon overflow, and flooding occurs.

One way in which we see that the environment is changing is through the increased frequency of flooding. Flooding occurs when heavy rainfall occurs, and the river channel overflows or ‘bursts its banks.’ The faster the rainwater reaches the river channel, the more likely the channel is to flood. The topography and nature of the landscape influence how quickly the rainwater reaches the channel. The time taken for rainwater to reach the river is called the lag-time. The lag-time is the time between the peak rainfall and peak discharge in the river. Discharge is the volume of water that passes a point in the river’s course every second.

The lag-time is a way to show the time taken for the river to reach its peak discharge from the peak rainfall. A quick lag-time means that river reaches a high volume of water very quickly and so flash floods can occur. The natural factors that affect the lag-time are associated with the changing environmental conditions:

1. Frequent and heavy rainfall events can cause surrounding land and floodplains to become saturated- the water is absorbed by the ground and the ground no longer has the capacity for any more water. This means that there is very little infiltration of water once it hits the ground during a rain event, this results in surface-

2 Warmer air can hold more water vapour. During convectional rainfall, the sun heats the ground, and the water evaporates into the air. As the air rises higher up, it begins to cool and condense into clouds. These clouds can hold large amounts of water and once they reach their dew point, water is released via precipitation in the form of snow, rain, and hail. Now due to the air being warmer due to trapped heat in the atmosphere from the sun, there is more water vapour and so more clouds are being formed, which can trap heat, in the form of longwave radiation, keeping the earth warmer, especially at night. Since there are more clouds with more water vapour, there are more frequent, intense rains that are also long-lasting. This means that the ground becomes saturated more quickly and so the short lag time and high volume of rainfall results in large floods.

3 Coastal flooding is caused by rising sea levels. The rise in sea levels is caused by the melting of polar ice caps. The glaciers and icebergs melt because of an increase in air temperature. The sea increases in volume and the sea expands which results in rising sea levels. When cyclones, hurricanes and other extreme weather events occur at the coast, the higher level of the sea gives it a higher starting point. This means the floods reach further inland and so there is greater damage because of flooding.

4. Cyclones can cause storm surges. Cyclones are affected in two ways by environmental change. The formation of tropical cyclones occurs when there are very warm conditions at the ocean surface and when the vertical temperature gradients through the atmosphere

are strong. As the climate continues to warm, the difference between the temperature near the surface and the temperature higher up in the atmosphere is likely to decrease. The temperature gradient weakens and so reducing the frequency causing the cyclones to be more damaging. This will be because the increasing temperature of the ocean surface will increase the maximum wind speeds and intensity of rain. Storm surges and heavy rainfall will result in flooding. A storm surge is a rise above normal sea level resulting from strong onshore winds and/or reduced atmospheric pressure. Cyclones are most likely to occur during late summer and early autumn in tropical regions. For example, floods in Bangladesh occur when cyclones are funnelled northwards up the Bay of Bengal. The Bay get narrower and shallower (due to silt deposition) and so storm surges can sweep over the islands of the delta causing catastrophic floods as these deltas are low lying.

Impacts of flooding

Flooding can cause large amounts of damage. It tends to cause a lot more financial damage in urban areas. Rural areas tend to have less flooding since there is a lot more land for infiltration to occur and there are fewer houses and people there.

Urban areas can face flooding more frequently because they are built near or along rivers and so when a river burst its banks the water travels a shorter distance before reaching a settlement. Impacts can be split into economic, social, or environmental:

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The climate crisis means that we are making flooding more disastrous and less natural.
A six metre storm surge resulting from the 1991 cyclone killed 138,000 people.

Economic Social Environmental

Damage to property as water can enter low-lying properties. The river could be carrying large amounts of pollution and silt that will destroy floors, walls, and electrical connections. E.g. the Somerset floods in 2014 caused significant economic damage: 600 homes and 6880 hectares of agricultural land were flooded. People who were not insured suffered the most. Flood response also carried significant costs; the fuel used to power emergency pumps cost £200,000 per weak. The floods cost the country £147.5 million to respond to and rebuild.

Clean up tasks such as removal of sediment and litter can cost the government a lot of money. E.g. £15 million was made available by the UK government to help clean up after the 2014 Somerset floods.

Some people who live close to rivers and coasts, struggle to get insurance whilst others cannot afford the insurance premiums. The cost of repairing and rebuilding damaged buildings can push up insurance premiums. E.g. Shrewsbury is in a high to medium flood risk part of the river and so businesses and people will be affected during flooding events and so will face damages. Therefore, some insurance companies choose not to ensure company or residential areas since they will face losses during flood damage.

Small businesses run by locals that are damaged by the floods can mean that people lose their only source of income and must either use their savings to live off or to rebuild their business. E.g. as a result of the Sommerset flood of 2014, an estimated £1 million was lost by local businesses due to lack of access from the closed main roads and train services like the main Bristol line between Taunton and Bridgwater.

Floods will wash chemicals and sewage into the water. The contaminated water will spread quickly over an area- causing a public health issue and killing marine life. Land and waterways can experience long term damage where they cannot recover.

Floods will destroy places where river wildlife and fish might have breeding grounds. Changes to river temperature and patterns can upset natural ecosystems. Extreme flood events can affect freshwater ecosystems, E.g. populations of the freshwater pearl mussel, an endangered species in the North of the UK, can significantly be affected by extreme floods, which remove mussels from riverbeds.

Fig1. An image showing areas of high, medium, low and very low risk of flooding from the River Severn flowing through Shrewsbury.

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What humans can do to nitigate the damage of floods

Humans can carry out two types of flood management. This can be through hard engineering or soft engineering. Within these two types, we can either prevent future floods from happening or we can respond more quickly and effectively to future floods.

Channelisation is a form of hard engineering. It directs the river flow by building concrete blocks as artificial levees. This way we raise the banks and speed up the flow of the river, this way water will flow away quickly from the area and not overflow, causing damage. Spillways are often built when rivers are channelled. The diversion spillways can reduce floods in the location they are built to reduce the pressure on channels, sluice gates allow more control of the channel the discharge of the river. The concrete channels also protect the banks from erosion which is very important in urban areas as it will endanger surrounding infrastructure, this will also reduce the load in the river, this there will be less deposition and so the river will have a greater cross-sectional area. Instead of channelisation, Wing dykes/river groynes can be alternatives that change the natural flow by disturbing the thalweg of the river. Water is deflected away from eroding the banks; velocity is also reduced. This can be a cheaper alternative and will serve the same purpose of protecting banks and reducing erosion. The river will not have sufficient energy to erode the banks by erosion. Concrete channels can cause flash floods further downstream and have other unexpected effects like decreased water quality, increased sedimentation, bed and bank erosion and loss of habitats. Wing dykes are often built of wood which can rot and wear easily. Which is why, sometimes, instead of controlling the direction, the output may be controlled with a more

durable method: Dams.

Dams collect water in the reservoir behind when there is heavy rainfall. This protects the settlements further downstream, which are not affected as all the rainwater is managed by the dam. The dam can be used for hydroelectric power once water is let out which can help in improving reliance on renewable energy. However, unlike channels dams can be very costly to build and maintain. Like channels, dams can have a negative impact on the settlement downstream: if the dam gets too full it could burst or the dam can hold up a lot of silt and sediment which is useful for farming on the floodplains.

Sometimes, the cheaper option can be to change policies and create temporary or permanent flood damage mitigation methods. Flood profiling can be temporary or permanent. New buildings can be constructed with flood-proof ground floor walls or have temporary flood gates that can be mounted and taken down to maintain accessibility to areas but also to protect important areas during floods. For example, in Shrewsbury, mountable flood walls have been introduced to protect the Severn Theatre and Shrewsbury University and the surrounding car park is designed to flood to decrease flooding in other areas. This is an example of land-use zoning which is effective in protecting new housing and infrastructure. Many of the new structures that may be at risk of damage from flooding have built-in measures such as some houses may be elevated, or some have floodwalls surrounding the house. This is both a cheaper alternative and with fewer downsides as it reduces future damage and disruption to current systems.

Land-use zoning involves mapping areas that are likely to flood:

Zone A: Prohibitive Zones- these areas are nearer to the channel with a relatively high risk of flooding. Essential waterfront developments

may be permitted but future developments will not happen.

Zone B: Restrictive Zones- little development is allowed and what is permitted should be flood-proofed. They are best suited to low-intensity or low-value land such as pasture, playing fields and car parking.

Zone C: Warning Zones-areas further away and situated on higher land may be used for a wider range of developments, from residential to public buildings. Inhabitants are made aware of imminent flood danger and are instructed on how to react when floods occur.

Majority of these methods can damage river wildlife and therefore, a more sustainable method of flood management can be through utilising sustainable urban drainage and collection methods such as creating a ‘sponge city’- this method is a crossover between hard engineering and soft engineering. The concept has become very popular in China as the country has had an increase in flooding rates in recent years. “A sponge city is one that can hold, clean and naturally drain water – using an ecological approach”, according to Kongjian Yu, the Dean of Peking University’s College of Architecture. The method will involve retaining rainwater to be used domestically. The uses include irrigating rooftop and vertical gardens, urban farms, recharging depleted aquifers, replacing, or replenishing water used in toilets, and processing it so that it can be clean enough to use as drinking water.

Most river management strategies that use constructional hard engineering approaches can have considerable financial and environmental costs. However, hard engineering methods tend to be focused on areas of greatest need, particularly with urban areas with high land values and population densities.

Some countries may wish to invest in more sustainable options that

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cause minimal damage to the environment. Which is why soft engineering can be a preferred method of flood management. Soft engineering is working with natural processes and features rather than attempting to control them. These can often be cheaper methods with fewer negative impacts.

Planting vegetation and plants near rivers and close/ in urban areas to increase interception and infiltration. The roots uptake water and so the ground has more capacity for water and so there may be less surface run-off. This is the same principle behind the use of green roofs/ rooftop gardens to absorb rainwater, and the excess water can be harvested for use in the building. This method reduces stormwater runoff, and it also benefits the environment as it prevents combined sewer overflow, it also neutralises the acid rain effect and removes nitrogen pollution from rainwater.

Flood diversion is where certain areas of land are allowed to flood such as wetlands and floodplains. Water pumps can pump water here from other places. These areas are either not built on or can benefit from flooding. Such examples of land include paddy plains. Paddy plains are used to grow rice crops which grow in flooded fields. This method is part of land use zoning, where certain fields or land are seen to be

unsuitable for development and so unaffected by flooding. Water pumps and pumping stations are used to transport water from flooded areas or directly from a near capacity river to the wetlands or floodplains.

Now with the changing environment, flooding is becoming more frequent and intense. Development and the growing population mean flooding can have severe consequences. Hard engineering and soft engineering methods are the two main ways humans can reduce damage from flooding. Hard engineering is the most difficult method of flood prevention/ mitigation. This is because it generally is very expensive, requires a lot of maintenance, can affect the environment and the economy of the area. However, unlike with proper management and funding, hard engineering is the most effective way to combat flooding. This is because they last longer than soft engineering methods and are stronger so are of better use in urban areas. With the world rapidly urbanising with development and population growth, more people are migrating to urban areas: 4.35 billion people in the world live in urban areas compared to 3.40 billion. Since there are more people living in urban areas, there are more people at risk and so, hard engineering is worth the cost as it is saving future costs from damages and recovery.

References: Cambridge International AS and A level Geography Hodder Education Textbook

Oxford University Press Geography for Cambridge International AS and A level Textbook

3cf983377b8043ff1ec f15709eebf298.pdf (climatecouncil. org.au)

What is convectional rainfall? - In ternet Geography

What causes a flood? - BBC Bite size

Somerset floods crisis: How the story unfolded - BBC News

The Somerset Levels Flood Case Study - Internet Geography

https://www.bing.com/videos/ search?q=impacts+of+flooding&do ci d=608011444793846861&mid=3D 7CAE8BBC2DE14EEF653D 7CAE8BBC2DE14EEF65&view= detail&FORM=VIRE

How does flooding affect humans and the environment? - Internet Geography

10 measures to prevent (urban) flooding (wavin.com)

Fig 2: Graph showing where the majority of the global population lives across the world, until 2010 majority of the world lived in Rural areas, since then there has been linear growth in the urban population. https://ourworldindata.org/ urbanization

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Number of people
1960 2020 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 1 billion 2 billion 3 billion 4 billion Urban population Rural population Source: World Bank based on data from the UN Population Division Note: Urban populations are defined based on the definition of urban areas by national statistical offices. OurWorldInData.org/urbanization • CC BY
living in urban and rural areas, World

The future of the water crisis and water scarcity: what happens when rivers run dry?

Large scale mismanagement and growing populations are slowly swallowing up finite water supplies and creating conflicts. Nations, regions, commercial interests and even neighbours fight for a share of a resource that was once thought limitless.

Most rivers emerge from mountains, gather water from nearby tributaries slowly meander down floodplains and finally meet

the ocean. However, the reality is that some rivers are dying as they travel towards the sea instead of growing. Inland seas and wetlands are disappearing too. We live in a world where 7.5 billion people are all competing for one single unevenly distributed resource. The planet is drying up and waterways are turning to sand before they even reach civilisation. With 1 in 5 of the world’s population without access to safe drinking water and 50% lacking water for

proper sanitation, 25,000 children die every day from water related diseases. Therefore, controlling water, and with-it nature, is pivotal for guaranteeing human survival across the globe.

Water is in such a short supply and in such high demand that, as with everything else, it will be the rich and powerful countries that will gain the most access to this scarce resource.

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Photo by Matt Palmer on

The rising demand for water is driven by three main factors: population growth, economic development, and rising living standards (increasing the per capita consumption of water). With the rising demand for water, and the diminishing supply there is increasing competition between water users for this dwindling resource.

Poor management and lack of efficiency will also increase the risk of water insecurity and conflict. For instance, rivers and waterways can be run dry by poor upstream irrigation management leaving downstream farmers with virtually no water at all.

Agriculture, however, is by far the most voracious consumer of water. It dominates water use, as approximately 3,770 kilometres of water are withdrawn each year for agriculture and around 20% of the world’s land is under full irrigation. Most of the irrigation water is pumped directly from aquifers and therefore is leading to groundwater depletion, particularly in China, India, Pakistan and the USA. Clearly, this is an unsustainable approach as hydrological cycles are being seriously disrupted.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (2018) stated that “

the number of farms partaking in these methods is below 3%.

Israel, however, is at the forefront of efforts to make agriculture more efficient, by taking an intensive water management approach, employing sub-surface drip irrigation that feeds water directly into the plant’s roots, rather than pouring water onto hot soil, where it will quickly evaporate, ensuring water is more efficiently used.

Although, two thirds of all the water that humans take from nature is used for agriculture, 10% of that water ends up in international trade. Not the actual water itself but the products of its uses. Economists refer to this as virtual water. Virtual water is increasingly contentious, as some people say that without the international water trade, there would be continual water wars. Where, others say that the virtualglobal water trade is what has globalised the impact of emptying our rivers in the first place.

For example, Britain imports 38 million acre-feet a year of virtual water, the equivalent of more than half the flow of the river Nile. Access to safe, potable water was initially regarded as a human right however it is increasingly being seen as a commodity for which a realistic price should be paid. This makes supplying safe water in areas of physical scarcity very difficult, costly, and well beyond the means of very poor people.

more equitably.

However, many firms aren’t tracking water uses beyond their own operations or aren’t tracking it well. This is a huge problem considering that some of the biggest water uses come from their supply chains. The ‘Ceres’ report recommends that companies work more closely with their suppliers, including farmers to collect good data and to secure more water supplies.

Improved international relations could also increase the efficiency of water management. E.g., there has been a surprising amount of corporation between India and Pakistan, which were once traditional enemies. A commendable degree of international corporation is important when there are key stakeholders desperate for one resource, as there is potential for conflict. Conflict can often lead to inefficient uses and largescale mismanagement as governments will have to prioritise some uses over others, e.g. economic development goals.

while producing better crops and protecting soils from salt. However, only 1% of the world’s irrigated farms make use of such methods. Even in China, a severely water-stressed country,

To restore our rivers, we need to find ways to meet demand without completely diminishing supply. For example, the water industry should invest more in helping households to become more water efficient. There is enough water, provided we use it sensibly and UN’s sustainable development goals to ‘wipe out hunger and improve access to clean water’, are still within reach if farming practises around the world manage water resources

Important management schemes include smart irrigation, Hydroponics, rainwater harvesting, filtration technology and restoration of damaged rivers. These actions are environmentally sustainable and can also bring socioeconomic benefits to local communities.

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in the future, simple technologies on farms such as lining irrigation canals and using perforated hoses can cut water use in half ”
Overall, globally, progressive steps have been taken towards sustainable development providing an insight into a more positive future for our water supplies.

the Protocol on Water and Health. Available: https://unece.org/environ ment-policy/water. Last accessed 30 0ctober 2021.

Danielle

Singapore is a good example of where successful water management strategies have been put in place. Singapore has few natural water resources, a thriving economy, a high standard of living and a high per capita consumption of water. However, has managed to make water management a top priority. It has adopted a holistic approach by collecting ‘every drop’ of water, reusing water endlessly (grey water) and desalinating more seawater. Singapore currently has two desalination plants meeting more than 25% of the water demand.

From this example, we can conclude that strategic planning in a more integrated way is vital if we are to achieve sustainable development. The mismanagement of water supplies is the most significant factor in increasing water insecurity. Improved management strategies, even on a small scale, can help significantly in meeting demand. And by working with water, we can find a way to restore water back to our rivers, refilling lakes and wetlands and learn to share our waters before our rivers run dry.

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agriculture and water. Available: https:// institute.global/sites/default/files/in line-files/Israel%20Case%20Study%20 Web%20reduced.pdf. Last accessed 30th October 2021.

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Edwald Blocher. (2012). Dammed water: water as a national commod ity. Available: https://www.jstor.org/ stable/26240359?Search=yes&re sultItemClick=true&searchTex t=water&searchUri=%2Faction%2F doBasicSearch%3FQuery%3Dwa

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Fred Pearce (2019). The Global Water Crisis and how to solve it. London: ‘Grants Books’

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The Shrinking Peninsula

Sia (Lower Sixth)

South Korea is shrinking. Not in physical size, but in the size of its society. From 2020, the Republic of Korea passed the point of no return and was officially declared to be a declining population.

South Korea’s population decreases due to the combined effects of a multitude of factors, however the following are amongst the most significant. In recent decades, the country has experienced a dramatic rise in affluence, for instance GDP levels increased

by more than £1,000 billion from 2000 to 2020, reducing the need for children as a means of financial support, decreasing the size of families. Improved family planning measures, access to contraception, and legalised abortion have decreased birth rates further in addition to the changing attitudes towards females and gender roles. In South Korea, women are becoming increasingly integrated into the workforce, whilst their desire for marriage and motherhood on average has declined. For example, a government survey in 2018 found

that only 20% of women considered marriage as a necessity, compared to the 47% obtained 20 years prior, and this growing independence of women financially and socially has contributed to a declining birth rate, whilst improved healthcare provisions have created an increased life expectancy. South Korea now has an extremely low fertility rate of 0.92 - the lowest in the world- and an extremely high life expectancy of 84 - one of the highest in the world. Hence, its population is in decline.

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https://cdn.pixabay.com/ photo/2017/03/21/17/10/ nightlife-2162772_960 _720.jpg

The implications of the Republic’s declining population will be wide ranging, severe and long lasting. It is significant to note that an aging and declining population will reduce the labour potential of South Korea, whilst inflating the number of older dependants and pensioners. As the Republic becomes less productive, its economic output is likely to diminish, limiting income and increasing the strain on local and national governments. Reducing Korea’s financial capabilities would adversely impact its global bargaining power in political and economic systems, and could cut military might by over 200,000 men, something that would weaken Korea, particularly in the face of China, North Korea, and other potential power houses in the region.

As the population is expected to continue to decrease in future years, it is likely that we will see many new procedures and policies put in place by the government. Already, there have been a number of policies implemented to mitigate the impacts of its declining population. For instance, in 2020 the Korean government provided £675 to pregnant women and prolonged payments to mothers of children under 12 months old to increase child support, in the hope of encouraging more couples to have children.

In addition to financial incentives, campaigning and other soft measures have been used to raise awareness of the importance of fertility, for instance the ‘One

is Not Enough’ advertisement campaign. However, where such campaigns and financial incentives are successful in improving child support for already existing families or entertaining the idea of starting a family, they fall short of growing seeds into trees. In addition to a lessened necessity and desire for children, starting a family is considered unattainable for many South Koreans: the average cost of raising a child in South Korea in the first six years is £41,000; the GDP per capita is £24,000 annually. Such expenses are unlikely to be overcome by any government support, which is particularly true if Korea’s economic power lessens in the future. Due to this, any successes in South Korea’s government-led fertility-promoting policies are likely to be offset by the harsh realities of raising children.

An alternative response to South Korea’s declining population could be a concentrated government effort to maximise economic output from the existing working population. Although the issue of a declining population would not be solved, the short term economic benefits could help to relieve pressure on the government and allow for a better response in the long term. For example, in 2013 the government launched a ‘Creative Economy’ initiative to develop higher earning tertiary and quaternary sectors, in order to diversify the economy and increase profits in both the short and long term. This initiativein addition to similar schemes, such as those aimed at youth unemployment- aims to engage the younger proportion of Korea’s economically active population, with the intention of enhancing and future-proofing the economy as a result. However, the structure of the South Korean economy may not be conducive to an approach focussed on younger workers, as there is currently a greater proportion of economically active people over 60 than those in their twenties- a trend that will only become more extreme as Korea’s population

continues to decline. Although this does not mean that the government will terminate investment into the younger workforce, it does mean that cost-benefit analyses will have to be carefully calculated, as any attempts to rejuvenate the workforce would potentially be short lived.

Perhaps the most impactful solution to South Korea’s declining population is to increase immigration. Immigration has the potential to be extremely advantageous to the Republic as migrant populations tend to have higher birth rates, easing the effects of an ageing population, and the abundance of foreign workers would help to fill existing or impending labour shortages whilst enlarging the market size, making Korea a more attractive location for FDI. Immigration could help to alleviate the population crisis whilst simultaneously strengthening Korea as an economic and political power. However, as of yet, South Korea has experienced relatively low levels of immigration. For example, in 2018, migrants made up only 2% of Korea’s population- in contrast over 14% of the USA’s population was comprised of migrants. Although Korean schemes such as the ‘New Southern Policy’ and memberships to trade blocs such as ASEAN do facilitate immigration to an extent, rates have the potential to be much higher. However, one of the main challenges to immigration currently is South Korea’s strong sense of ethnic nationalism (called danil minjok). Such pride in ethnic homogeneity has translated into complex legal frameworks that make it hard for immigrants to gain citizenship, discouraging immigration. This also raises the important point that the retention of migrants, not only the influx of migrants, is crucial to South Korea’s long term economic success; therefore, creating migrant-friendly systems and environments would be vital for South Korea’s long-term security.

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In the end, given the uncharted territory of population decline, there are many uncertainties that South Korea will face when addressing this issue, and it is not only Korea treading this precarious path.

Major nations such as Japan and Portugal are also experiencing the difficulties caused by a declining population, as will many more in the future.

However, perhaps the only certain is this: when considering the issue of a declining population, no single solution on its own will suffice.

To mitigate the impacts of its population crisis, the Republic of Korea will have to consider a holistic approach to a multifaceted problem, and perhaps the only actions that can be taken are ones that mitigate, rather than treat.

References

Oh Seok Kim, Kee Whan Kim (2020) Super Aging in South Korea

Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning

Moni Nag (1980) How Modernization Can Also Increase Fertility, Current Anthropology

Miriam Quick (2019) South Korea’s population paradox, BBC Generation Project

(2021) South Korea’s fertility rate falls to the lowest in the world, Reuters.com Republic of Korea Population Statistics, World Bank

Aaron O’Neill (2021) Distribution of gross domestic product across economic sectors South Korea

Hye-Kyung Lee (2015) An Overview of International Migration to South Korea (2020) Startups offer a different future for South Korea’s economy, The Economist Justin McCurry (2021) ‘Luxuries I can’t afford’: why fewer women in South Korea are having children, The Guardian Song Jung-a (2019) South Korea’s birth rate falls to new developed world low, The Financial Times

Erin Aeran Chung (2021) How South Korean Demographics Are Affecting Immigration and Social Change, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Insoo Jeong The Status of Youth Unemployment in Korea and Policy Tasks, Korea Labor Institute

Adam Hur (2021) South Korea’s Demographic Crisis is Challenging its National Story, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Gi-Wook Shin (2006) Korea’s ethnic nationalism is a source of both pride and prejudice, Stanford Asia-Pacific Research Centre

Chung Min Lee (2021) South Korea’s Military Needs Bold reforms to Overcome a Shrinking Population

Woo-Young Lee, Hayeon Lee (2019) The Perception of the Integration of North and South Korea, Historical Social Research, Vol 44.

All other statistics from: WHO Statista

KOSIS -Korean Statistical Information Service

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Effects of Covid 19 on globalisation of the economy

Uma (Lower Sixth)

Globalisation is the process of interaction and integration among people, companies, and governments worldwide. Globalisation has accelerated since the 18th century due to advances in transportation and communication technology. However, the recent Covid 19 pandemic has had adverse effects on globalisation processes. Not only has

the mobility of individuals decreased, due to multiple lockdowns, the economy has also suffered. Despite this, there is promise of speedy recovery of the economy.

A global pandemic such as Covid 19 can damage the economies of many countries. It has decelerated economic growth by causing significant disruption to global trade. In

2020, global trade fell by 8.9%, the steepest drop since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The pandemic affected the trade of services, more than the goods trade. Services trade does not include tangible products as such, but instead payments and receipts for service-related activities such as finance, transport, tourism and so on. Services trade fell by more than 20% in 2020, almost four times

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the decline in goods trade. Covid restrictions can explain this difference. Whilst restrictions hugely cut down the service sector, due to Covid restrictions, goods trade recovered faster as factory shutdowns were limited, and there was more demand for durable goods such as furniture, carpets and appliances, due to people staying at home more during the pandemic. Moreover, with schemes such as furlough and mortgage holidays during lockdown, there was more disposable incomes for some households. This allowed increased spending on these goods. On the other hand, services such as healthcare and tourism were severely disrupted. The restrictions on public gatherings and suspension of flight operations throughout the world has had a negative impact on this industry. As a knock-on effect, many businesses located in tourism hot spots have had to shut down to keep people away from the tourist spots. Additionally, many countries’ healthcare systems have been partly or entirely interrupted. The healthcare industry has taken a devastating hit due to the multiplication of Covid 19

patients and the lack of healthcare staff. Regarding the future, the healthcare and tourism sector are already seeing improvements. With the variants getting weaker, as well as readily available vaccinations, hospital patients and restrictions on travel are decreasing. This shows promising signs.

Covid has had different impacts on trade in different countries. For example, the fall in Chinese trade was much smaller than in other regions, in fact the recovery was very strong compared to many places. The surge in global demand for goods and China’s ability to reopen its domestic supply chains ahead of other countries, meant the impacts were short term.

In particular, increased demand for durable goods in lockeddown economies, combined with Covid-related disruption in the ports of those countries, exacerbated the shortage of shipping containers and increased costs. Containers are key components in global trade, since most manufactured goods – including clothes, medicines, and processed food products – are shipped in them. Containers became ‘stuck’ in the US and Europe rather than returning to Asia, slowing down efficiency. The shortage of shipping containers is likely to be temporary, however, shipping costs are likely to remain high in the near future. Particularly on trade routes to developing regions, where consumers and businesses can least afford it. This is partly because routes from China to countries in South America and Africa are often longer, more ships are required weekly for these routes, leading to more ship delays on the way. Therefore, in terms of trade, the economy has suffered with increased transportation costs. Luckily major manufacturing hubs like China have been able to recover quickly, but

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The pandemic however has greatly impacted shipping costs, which have increased by around 350% since May 2020

other economies which have not been able to do this may not experience more long-term effects.

Although Covid has negatively impacted globalisation, specifically of the economy, it has also shown that globalisation is robust. Firstly, it has strengthened the case for digitalization, for example, there has been increased elimination of paperwork in the shipping industry, including in ports. This means if we faced a similar situation in the future, we will be better prepared and more efficient, meaning the economy will not suffer as much. Furthermore, the newly released DHL Global Connectedness Index 2020, shows high levels of resilience to this pandemic, and perhaps awareness of how much humans rely on connectivity. While lockdowns and border closures have decreased global mobility, the DHL report shows that capital flows have already started to recover; trade has rebounded strongly, whilst digital information flows have surged. There are also upsides to digital technologies, with one click of a button we can deliver food, clothes, and other commodities to our doorstep, in specific businesses like Amazon have

thrived from this. Companies in Entertainment services such as Netflix have also benefitted. The platform has seen subscriber numbers surge during the pandemic, as lockdowns around the world keep people at home. Almost 16 million people created accounts in the first three months of the year, the firm said. This promotes the sharing of cultures through films, boosting globalisation.

Regarding the mobility of people, the Covid 19 pandemic has been a setback for travel, tourism, and other flows, but this is not new. Prior events such as September 11 attacks in 2001, the SARS virus of 2002 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 have all interrupted and stalled global exchange, but the economy has since recovered. This shows much promise for the future. Overall, as displayed, Covid 19 has taken its toll on the economy, including trade, tourism, and the healthcare service. However, the pandemic has not only had negative impacts on the economy. Some industries have seen a boom, namely entertainment and communication platforms. Past situations and pandemics have also affected the economy negatively, but it has recovered.

Although the service sector has been badly hit, there are already improvements. With vaccines being readily available, and the weakening of variants, there is already promise for the future. It has been over a year since the start of the pandemic and global prospects appear to be improving. According to reports by the OECD and the World Economic Forum, data shows countries – such as the US, South Korea, Japan, and Germany – are on course to recover to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2021. However, it is important to note that the effects are not this short-term in other countries. For example, both Spain and Iceland, suffered a huge blow from the collapse in tourism revenues. They are expected to operate below pre-pandemic levels until at least mid-2023. Worse still, developing countries such as South Africa and Argentina are forecast to remain below their 2019 levels until the end of 2024, or well into 2025.

Sources to websites:

https://theconversation.com/covid-19recovery-some-economies-will-takelonger-to-rebound-this-is-bad-foreveryone-162023

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/pii/S2352771420302810

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/ bank-overground/2021/how-has-covidaffected-global-trade

https://unctad.org/news/shipping-duringcovid-19-why-container-freight-rateshave-surged

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ business-52376022

https://www.weforum.org/ agenda/2020/12/covid-19-future-ofglobalization-trade/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ articles/PMC8134531/

https://theconversation.com/covid-19recovery-some-economies-will-takelonger-to-rebound-this-is-bad-foreveryone-162023

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Netflix usage up amid COVID-19 but analysts at odds over longterm impact | S&P Global Market Intelligence (spglobal.com)

Extracts from Lower 5 Habs Girls SWAY Project.

During the opening speeches of COP26 the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, Ms Patricia Espinosa said “We stand at a pivotal point in history. Humanity faces several stark but clear choices. We either choose to achieve rapid and large-scale reductions of emissions to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C - or we accept that humanity faces a bleak future on this planet.

We either choose to boost adaptation efforts to deal with current extreme weather disasters and build resilience to address future impacts - or we accept that more people will die, more families will suffer, and more economic harm will follow.

We either choose to recognize that business as usual isn’t worth the devastating price we’re paying and make the necessary transition to a more sustainable future - or we accept that we’re investing in our own extinction. It is about much more than environment, it is about peace, stability and the institutions we have built to promote the wellbeing of all. It is for these reasons and more that we must make progress here in Glasgow.”

COP 26 Speeches and statements | UNFCCC

As a community here at Habs we must continue in our efforts to support our fellow citizens of the world in the fight against climate change and the devastating impacts associated. Following on from a SWAY completed by Year 10 in 2021, this successive SWAY focuses on the response to climate change, looking at a country level and by individual actions.

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Defend the Planet - Global Citizen

Sunday 26 September 2021

The Global Citizen campaign to defend the planet and defeat poverty marked a major milestone at Global Citizen’s 24-hour global broadcast, Global Citizen Live on Saturday 25 September, during which key commitments were announced through the hard work of many partner organizations.

Global Citizen Live represents a call to action to end extreme poverty and build momentum ahead of the G20 Summit in October and UN Climate Conference, COP26, in November.

The campaign calls on world leaders, businesses, and philanthropists to urgently commit resources to: meet the $15-20 billion funding shortfall of the $100 billion promised annually to the most vulnerable countries confronting climate change; businesses to help curb emissions through joining the Race to Zero campaign and pledging 1 billion additional trees by 2022 in support of the 1t.org ambition to conserve, restore, and grow 1 trillion trees this decade; $6 billion to provide food to 41 million people facing famine; 2 billion Covid 19 vaccines to be redistributed to low-income countries by early 2022; and for Pfizer, BioNTech, and Moderna to share mRNA technology with the WHO-backed Africa mRNA vaccine hub.

CLICK ON THE LINK Defend the Planet - Global Citizen - How can we defend our planet?

Read about the work of Global Citizenship and sign up to be part of the movement!

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Not only is the annual COP the moment for stakeholders across the world to collectively grapple with the climate crisis, but this particular COP comes at an especially critical time. Climate has risen to the top of the global agenda, with the UN SecretaryGeneral calling the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change a “code red for humanity.”

Given the devastating climate impacts we have seen in 2021 from drought and wildfires to severe flooding and rising sea levels countries need to decisively ramp up their climate abatement ambition. Furthermore, this COP represents a deadline for countries to submit new and enhanced nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2030the pledges countries put forward every five years under the Paris Agreement. A successful COP 26, marked by strong country commitments, will be critical to keep within reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures.

COP 26 Explained: What to Know About the UN Climate Change Conference (unfoundation.org)

Research released during the conference shows that the plans countries have laid out so far for reducing emissions (known as Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) still add up to a terrifying 2.4C of temperature rise by the end of the century.

We are now at 1.1 degrees of warming. Crossing the 2 degrees threshold is enough to put over 1 billion people under extreme heat stress; bleach over 99% of coral reefs: double the extinction of plant species and intensify the melting of sea ice in summer by 10 times, fueling up to 6 metres of sea level rise in vulnerable parts of the world. The Maldives Environment Minister, Aminath Shauna stated it baldly in the final plenary

“The difference between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees, for us, really is a death sentence.”

Theoretically at least, ‘1.5 is still alive’ after the negotiations. An agreement made in Glasgow - known as the Glasgow Climate Pact - requests that countries “revisit and strengthen” their climate pledges by the end of 2022. This may seem like a thin victory, but it wasn’t a given before the conference started, and it puts diplomatic pressure on governments to strengthen their plans over the next year.

As the Secretary-General of the United Nations put it during the negotiations, if 1.5 is still alive, it’s on life support. Changing the political, social and economic priorities of governments around the world to refocus on new, ambitious plans for COP27 to reduce emissions as fast as possible would be - will be - a momentous task.

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A project to build a giant island providing enough energy for three million households has been given the green light by Denmark’s politicians.

The world’s first energy island will be as big as 18 football pitches (120,000sq m), but there are hopes to make it three times that size.

It will serve as a hub for 200 giant offshore wind turbines. It is the biggest construction project in Danish history, costing an estimated 210bn kroner (£24bn; €28bn: $34bn).

Situated 80km (50 miles) out to sea, the artificial island would be at least half-owned by the state but partly by the private sector.

It will not just supply electricity for Danes but for other, neighbouring countries’ electricity grids too. Although those countries have not yet been detailed, Prof Jacob Ostergaard of the Technical University of Denmark told the BBC that the UK could benefit, as well as Germany or the Netherlands. Green hydrogen would also be provided for use in shipping, aviation, industry and heavy transport.

Under Denmark’s Climate Act, the country has committed to an ambitious 70% reduction in 1990 greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and to becoming CO2 neutral by 2050. Last December it announced it was ending all new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

Protein feed: Insects to replace imports (fleischwirtschaft.de)

DENMARK, Copenhagen. With protein feed based on insects, Denmark wants to avoid some of its soy imports in the future and thus contribute to environmental and climate protection.

Now that the European Union has approved protein from insects for feeding monogastric animals, a research group is to explore practical ways of using this innovative protein source by 2024 as part of the Danish Agriculture Authority’s development and demonstration program. The authority reported that initial trials on pigs and poultry have shown that, under realistic assumptions, up to 10% of the approximately 1.5 mill. t of annual soybean imports could be substituted with insect protein. However, this would require a significant expansion of existing production capacity.

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Individual action

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/topocean-experts-tell-radio-davos-their-hopes-forcop26-climate-talks/

Thunberg began a global movement by skipping school: starting in August 2018, she spent her days camped out in front of the Swedish Parliament, holding a sign painted in black letters on a white background that read Skolstrejk för klimatet: “School Strike for Climate.” In the 16 months since, she has addressed heads of state at the UN, met with the Pope, sparred with the President of the United States and inspired 4 million people to join the global climate strike on Friday 20 September 2019, in what was the largest climate demonstration in human history. Her image has been celebrated in murals and Halloween costumes, and her name has been attached to everything from bike shares to beetles. Margaret Atwood compared her to Joan of Arc. After noticing a hundredfold increase in its usage, lexicographers at Collins Dictionary named Thunberg’s pioneering idea, climate strike, the word of the year.

Greta Thunberg: TIME’s Person of the Year 2019 | Time

Background to the UNFCC

How we live and work together in communities and cities can have a huge impact in tackling climate change. Energy efficient buildings, low carbon public transport and encouraging cycling and walking are essential to cutting CO2 emissions. Greening cities with parks and gardens reduces CO2 and helps cool urban areas and reduce flooding. Thinking and acting at a local level helps communities fight climate change and build resilience to climate impacts

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The protests of COP26: why are the people dissatisfied?

Toby (Year 9)

Picture this: October 31st, 2021. Delegates of 197 countries around the world make their way to the Scottish Exhibition and Conference centre to discuss the latest strategies to combat climate change. Of course, since COP21 took place in Paris, the parties have been telling both their people and the media that they are doing everything in their power to save the environment on the home turf.

However, COP26 has been labelled the most crucial one that has ever been held. Why, if since 2015 countries have been supposedly working harder than ever, is this true? All around the Scottish Exhibition and Conference centre is quiet. All of the delegates spend two weeks discussing strategies to mitigate and adapt to deal with the effects of climate change. There is no external stress on any of the speakers to make

the first bold movements and multiple agreements are made between various regions to strengthen bonds, support, and funding for the experimental steps about to be taken by many. Soon after the changes are implemented, the world begins a new green age, an Earth rid of global warming and humans and animals live sideby-side in a world fair to all.

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Photo by Callum Shaw on Unsplash

Of course, the world today is not like this and most likely will never become totally perfect because of one thing: People. The masses are the true voices of the delegates at COP26. A speaker is constrained as to what they are allowed to say because there is external pressure, heaps of it. It takes the form of rallies and marches outside the centre and the constant demands for fairness and equity for the planet must be heard and acted upon. Democratically speaking, a representative from a country such as India could come under heavy fire from the people for saying that they are prepared to give up using oil at this very moment, India being a developing country, still heavily reliant on coal and oil. The reality is that nobody will ever really be ready to switch from fossil fuels to renewables, but as the peoples calls echo louder down the streets and roads and into the halls and then the ears of those in power, a force is being conjured, one that will eventually tip a country into changing their ways. The hardest step is over when that happens, it is just a matter of bravery, boldness, and preparedness to lose a little bit of money for a short amount of time. When put this way, world leaders appear as cowards.

This year, the COP26 Coalition (the board who organised the marches and protests) announced that more than 100000 people took part in at least one protest.

This puts COP26 as the most protested COP ever, but why were the people marching and what is it exactly that they want? The most common answer is that they

were demanding immediate action against climate change. Effectively, the people have had enough of their leaders procrastinating and refusing to put into motion any plans they have to do anything. Greta Thunberg, a Swedish activist who is only 19 years of age, declared to one of the rallies,’ The people in power can continue to live in their bubble filled with their fantasies…’ This is exactly what the mostly middle-class protesters are trying to eliminate. Bringing the people with more influence, power, and money down to their own level will not only make the population more supportive of them as they have the courage to place themselves in the shoes of an ordinary citizen, but with the support, the leader will be spurred more than ever to do the one thing that democracy is intended for: Driving, but with the people as the instructor. This is one reason that the protestors at COP26 felt it was their duty to march the streets.

Secondly, people are continuing to protest because plans that have been originally initiated or set to begin taking effect have either been postponed or shut down and abandoned. This is what the marchers are most concerned and angry about, because these are promises made to them by the leaders that they elected, being revoked. The people who have been made to feel as though they have been a part of the journey to a cleaner world have been pretty much left in the dust by fickle politicians. The most prominent example of this is the titular slogan, ‘Keep 1.5 alive.’

At COP21 in Paris five years ago, an increase in global temperature averages of 1.5 degrees was made the threshold, the point of no return. The governments and delegates failed to keep this goal in sight during the last couple of years because this threshold has been crossed. The goal has now been shifted to 3 degrees, but it is not as though this ‘betrayal’ has been forgotten because the people will not soon forget how close we will come to an uninhabitable Earth. They feel like they are expendable, obstacles for

leaders and speakers to overcome, in order to disguise the fact that the people in charge are doing nothing. Frustration has been mounting for many years, and when something like this is done to the masses, one can expect backlash of the most devastating kind.

Colette Pichon Battle, founder and executive director of the Gulf Coast Centre for Law and Policy in Louisiana said, ‘We’ve got to decolonize ourselves and understand that all these things... are rooted in an economy…’ The point being made here is that all of the focus is now on keeping economies afloat, not on stopping the ever-impending threat of climate change. However, this can undoubtedly be changed. More protesting and expression of feelings on what we must do to stop an apocalypse crashing down will eventually get through to someone. That someone is not certain yet, but when they do make the sudden jump from fossil fuels to renewables, other countries will follow, not necessarily because they want to make a world a better place, but purely to keep their own reputations up and to facilitate their winning spot in the next general election. It is no secret that politicians are and will always be selfish, but they are the only ones who can lead us into the new age of green energy. So, with them on our side, we can finally make good on our mistakes towards the ecosystems and habitats across the globe, and work on plans for a better world for all of us.

References

https://www.google.com/search?client=s afari&rls=en&q=how+long+did+cop26+la st&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

https://www.google.com/search?client=s afari&rls=en&q=how+many+people+ralli ed+at+cop26&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ukscotland-59185007

https://www.google.com/search?client=s afari&rls=en&q=why+did+people+march +at+cop26&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ news/976/cpsprodpb/BCBC/ production/_121461384_071792390-1.jpg

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To what extent should we engineer the climate?

Ibrahim (Year 9)

Climate engineering – or geoengineering – is the purposeful intervention into the climate system to reduce and slow down the effects of climate change. There are two types of engineering: greenhouse gas removal (GGR) and solar radiation managemen (or SRM). GGR focuses on removing gases, emitted from human activity, from the atmosphere, directly reducing the greenhouse effect. SRM, meanwhile, is the label given to a diverse mix of large-scale technology ideas for reflecting sunlight away from the Earth, thereby cooling it.

It is increasingly looking like we may have to rely on a combination of such technologies in facing climate change. The authors of the recent IPCC report concluded that it is possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C, but every single one of the pathways they envisaged require the use of greenhouse gas removal, often on a vast scale. However, these technologies are not ready to be developed yet and

so if efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by transitioning away from fossil fuels fail, or greenhouse gas removal technologies are not researched and deployed quickly enough, faster-acting SRM ideas may be needed to combat the effects of climate change.

One of the main geoengineering methods being discussed involves sulphate particles or other aerosols being injected into the stratosphere from planes or high-altitude balloons, otherwise known as “stratospheric aerosol injection” or SAI and used to reflect sunlight into space in order to cool the planet. Stratospheric aerosols are the only solar geoengineering techniques “we know work today”, says McMartin of Cornell University. “We see what happens after a large volcanic eruption like Mount Pinatubo: put sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere and the planet cooled by about a half a degree”. SAI will help to cool the planet drastically, in a time where no other established solutions are being provided and will

reverse and reduce the effects of climate change, such as melting ice caps and rising sea levels. SAI will also be cheaper than other methods of combating climate change, making it more accessible for even developing countries. Despite that, a range of potential problems are already causing concern. Injected sulphate aerosols could deplete the ozone layer and sulphates would also eventually come down as acid rain, says McMartin, a particular worry for the relatively pristine parts of the planet which have not previously experienced this. It could also pose a risk to geopolitical systems. If a country decides to deploy solar geoengineering unilaterally, that could completely disrupt weather systems for another country, which would then disrupt its agricultural systems, and its GDP, resulting in massive tensions.

Another potential big risk of widespread deployment of SRM is something called termination shock, where the technology is abruptly stopped, for example, by war or

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583615002650

natural disaster. This would cause temperatures to rise very quickly to reflect the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. If societies are locked into the technology, these speedy rises could be truly catastrophic. Even if SRM were to be used only temporarily, the long atmospheric life of CO2 means that abrupt termination would still lead to a massive, swift warming effect.

aiming to help the UK reach its legislated net-zero climate target by 2050. One of these methods involve using biomass for energy, capturing the CO2 emissions, and storing them to provide lifecycle GGR, in other words: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

A primary benefit of BECCS is that it provides energy whereas other carbon removal pathways like direct air capture, use energy. The value of the energy provided by BECCS

reduces its net cost of carbon removal compared with other technological options. However, lots of land is needed to carry out the process, resulting in displacement of communities for land conversion affecting people’s livelihood and social identity. The land conversion will also have an impact on natural habitats, threatening the biodiversity of the area and may cause some animals to become endangered. The question also arises about where to store the CO2, raising concerns about geological storage; transporting and injecting CO2 into geological reservoirs raises concerns about pipelines, CO2 leakage, seismic activity, and water pollution, even affecting certain animal’s habitats, making the environment a place no longer safe to live. Yet many of these issues would arise only from very largescale adoption of BECCS. Smaller scale applications using agricultural residues or marginal agricultural land generally pose fewer risks. But for the method to have a meaningful impact, small scale projects will not be enough.

A second method the UK has invested in is afforestation. Growing new trees and improving the management of existing forests. As forests grow, they absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in living biomass, dead organic matter and soils. As well as helping to resolve

the problem of climate change, afforestation helps to provide new wildlife habitats for animals, and in some cases endangered animals, improving biodiversity in the area. The process also prevents soil erosion. The roots of the trees help to bind the soil together, stopping regions from becoming dry wastelands which can no longer be used for things like agriculture. Despite this, afforestation comes with serious opportunity costs. The transformed lands can no longer be used for such as residential developments and agriculture that are highly beneficial to the society through more supply of food and housing for those who need them, having an effect on the economy and health of the people as food is not only useful to feed people but also to trade with other countries.

In conclusion, I believe that geoengineering will be a key component in the journey to combating climate change, but, at this moment of time, more research is needed to be put into the technology and the methods need to be developed further so that they can be used safely, with no negative effects. If countries do decide to use geoengineering against climate change, it should not be the only solution they rely on, as they may become too dependent on it, and they should like for other ways to stop climate change at the same time.

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In terms of GGR, the UK has invested £30 million into numerous innovative methods of large-scale greenhouse gas removal from the atmosphere,

How can a Habs’ student’s routine contribute to climate change?

Krish (Year 9)

We are all aware that climate change is warming up the planet and changing our climate in ways not witnessed before. However, many people do not know how their daily routine can affect climate change. In this article I will look at how a Habs’ student’s daily routine can affect the climate, how they can change their lifestyle and why they should.

How much CO2 do you generate?

A typical Habs student will wake up and go about their morning routine, perhaps having a refreshing 10 minute shower. This 10 minute shower uses (on average) 100 litres of water. There is also more power being used on heating up approximately 75% of that shower.1. It takes approximately

11,025,000 J of energy to heat 75l of water to 35°C. Our Habs student will then get their parent to drive them to the coach stop, which is one away and they then wait for the coach. Our Habs’ student’s car has burnt approximately 0.2 litres of diesel for a round trip, which uses around 3,800,000 J of energy.2. The student then gets on the coach and the ride to the school takes around 30 minutes and is around 10 miles long. This coach consumes 8 litres

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of diesel which equates to around 380,000,000 J of energy. Our Habs student then gets to the school and goes about their day with no measurable footprint. However, after school is when it starts to kick off. They take the same coach journey (380,000,000 J) and the same car ride home (3,800,000 J for a round trip of their car), comes home and sits down to do some work on their laptop for two hours, consuming 270,000 J as he does so.3. In total, their routine has caused a total of 778,895,000 J to be used every day. If they have 200 days of school in a year, they will burn 155,779,000,000 J of energy in a year only counting the bogstandard schooldays. This amount of energy can be generated by burning 25.5 standard barrels of oil, or 4845 litres of oil (approximately). Burning this much oil can generate a whopping 10,985 kg of CO2

How could you reduce this?

Our typical Habs student is now aware of their contribution and wants to fix it. Here’s how they can do so. They can:

• Take shorter showers and (try to) use less hot water.

• Convince their parents to invest in an all-electric/ hybrid car such as Toyotas.

• Start shutting down their laptop when they’re not using it

• Invest in a power-saving laptop and one with a stronger battery life

• Try and convince their parents to alter their electricity plan to one than relies more on renewable/ sustainable sources for energy.

• Convince their parents to invest in solar panels to further increase efficiency and decrease costs.

Why should you try and reduce your CO2 emissions?

Our Habs student is looking at the list and thinking about how much work they would need to do to generate less CO2. they are also thinking that their changes will not have much impact on the environment as they are only one in billions. And they’re right. But, by taking the initiative and kick-starting their own

will unintentionally and inevitably influence other people. They should also switch their lifestyle for thier own and their family’s health. It has been shown that exposure to increased CO2 levels can induce things from headaches or dizziness to difficult breathing and increased heart rate, even causing (in some cases) convulsions and coma. 4

In conclusion, you alone will not make a big difference on the climate. However, if everyone adapts their lifestyles even the slightest (this could mean buying energy-saving bulbs; it does not necessarily mean investing in solar panels or electric vehicles) a momentous change would occur to the climate, helping us all.

References

1: How Much Water Does a 20 Minute Shower Use? – House Caravan

2: Fuel Calculators » Fuel-Economy. co.uk

3: How much power does a computer use? And how much CO2 does that represent? – Energuide

4: Carbon Dioxide | Wisconsin Department of Health Services

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By way of introduction, mitigation is the action of searching for prevention methods to reduce emissions that cause climate change. On the other hand, adaptation is the action of trying to manage the risks of climate change impacts by implementing methods that will prevent detrimental damages of climate change from

occurring on a global scale. For adaptation, the goal is to reduce our vulnerability to the harmful effects of climate change (like sealevel encroachment, more intense extreme weather events or food insecurity). It also encompasses making the most of any potential beneficial opportunities associated with climate change (for example, longer growing seasons or

increased yields in some regions).

For mitigation, the goal is to avoid significant human interference with the climate system, and stabilize greenhouse gas levels in a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

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While mitigation might save the planet, it is adaptation, preparing for climate shocks, that will save millions of lives.
To what extent do you agree?
https://gca.org/what-does-climate-adaptation-and-resilience-look-like/

In some ways adaptation and preparing for climate shocks will save millions of lives even if it is mitigation that might save this planet. While much of the global attention at COP26 is aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating the crisis, these gases are already at dangerous levels in the atmosphere and will continue to influence the climate for decades to come. Historical measurements show that the current global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are unprecedented compared with the past 800,000 years, even after accounting for natural fluctuations.

droughts and heatwaves is equally as important as mitigation. By doing so, it will help in increasing the resilience to the effects of violent weather the climate emergency is bringing. With the right approach it will be safer and more prosperous by creating defences for the places in which we live, work and travel.

The warming effect associated with carbon dioxide alone increased by 36 percent.

The world needs a massive, unprecedented, and sustained shift in energy demand and supply, away from fossil fuels and towards low carbon, to get to net zero. However, some significant climate impacts such as the continuous rising sea levels are inevitable. If we fail to adapt to impacts such as the rise of sea levels, there will be a range of impacts for coastal areas, including increased flooding, increased erosion, ecosystems changes and increased salinization. As a world, we can successfully tackle the climate emergency if we do the right things, but if we continue the constant mitigation and grievously undercook adaptation strategies, we will run out of time to implement effective adaptation measures for our safety against some inevitable impacts of climate change. Adapting to the mounting floods,

For example, between the Monday 12 and Thursday 15 July 2021, heavy rain fell across the United Kingdom, western Germany, and neighbouring Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. A storm complexed moved east from France into Germany and stalled over the region for two days. On Friday 16 July at least 184 people were dead and 1,300 people had been initially reported as missing. Sky News states that these severe impacts were mostly due to the mobile networks being down in some regions which made it difficult to call people. Some 15,000 police, soldiers and emergency service workers were deployed in Germany to help with the search and rescue. Severe climate change impacts will soon happen on a global scale with much more violent climate emergencies due to the continuous rise in global temperatures that will have devastating effects for our climate. However, by adapting for future climate change impacts will make the places where we work, live and travel much more resilient to the climate emergencies, preventing

many detrimental damages on a global scale, and as a result stopping high rate of deaths. For example, countries in South and Central Asia share some common areas for action to protect their agricultural system, including better droughttolerant seeds, expanded irrigation systems and improved access to seasonal weather forecasts, which on the whole will help protect the places in which their citizens work to get a source of income for their families.

In other ways it is better to strive forward with the continuous encouragement and enforcement of mitigation strategies to prevent the globe from getting to a stage where it is inevitable that we will have to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Mitigation will allow us to live in a world where we will not have to suffer from as many impacts of climate change if we try and reach a net zero world by:

• cutting down on deforestation

• reducing the burning of fossil fuels

• reducing the amount of waste

• cutting down on oil drilling

• cutting down on fishing

• using more renewable energy sources

• switching fuels

• applying carbon sequestration

• applying carbon offsets

https://climatechange.lta.org/wp-content/uploads/cct/2015/03/ MitigationBanner-e1429450975507.jpg

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From 1990 to 2019, the total warming effect from greenhouse gases added by humans to the Earth’s atmosphere increased by 45%

On a global scale, if all countries were to continue on reducing their carbon footprint and greenhouse gas emissions it would lead to much fewer devastating effects of climate change and global warming. This means the world would not have to suffer from the violent climate emergencies that would continuously be affecting people. By mitigating our planet, we will reduce the effects that climate change will have, and we will not have to worry on adapting to stabilize life with the continuous impacts of climate change. As a result, the planet will not get to a stage where adaptation will be the first option for preventing deaths due to the impacts of climate change.

For example, on a local scale by getting rid of the constant supply of single-use plastic items and instead using either different materials or biodegradable plastic will have somewhat of an effect on reducing the impacts of climate change.

On a global scale, the conversion from primarily using oil and gas as sources of energy to adopting renewable energy sources such as: solar energy from the sun, hydropower from flowing water and geothermal energy from heat inside the earth will help reduce the impacts of climate change. Not only are fossil fuels and global warming damaging our wildlife and environment, but they are also having a seriously detrimental effect on our health. Climate change will of course cause more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions and an increase in the number, duration, and intensity of tropical storms. However, serious health effects will also be caused by these disruptions, including increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease, injuries and premature deaths related to extreme weather events, changes in the prevalence and geographical distribution of food-and waterborne illnesses and other infectious diseases, and threats to mental health. Renewable energy sources such as wind power, solar panels,

and hydroelectric energy, on the other hand, are much more natural, and therefore ensure cleaner air. Generating renewable energy that produces no greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and reduces some types of air pollution will keep all living organisms on this world safe. Therefore, by focusing on mitigation rather than on adaptation can save both our planet and millions of lives, since if countries work together to reach a net zero goal, the impacts of climate change will not be as detrimental, and as a globe we will be more capable of dealing with the negative impacts caused by climate change that as a result will help prevent deaths. Countries such as Nepal are showing great strives forward in trying to reach a net zero goal:

If all countries try to drastically reduce their carbon dioxide emissions per captia like Nepal, mitigation will be able to save both our planet and millions of lives.

In summation, to some extent I agree that “while mitigation might save the planet, it is adaptation, preparing for climate shocks, that will save millions of lives.” This is because mitigation is essential since it will be able to eliminate many negative impacts and limit changes in the climate system. If this is achieved adaptation will not need to be an option since the effects of climate change will be both limited and not as devastating, and as a result will not lead to many deaths around the globe. However, this will only be achieved if all countries are able to secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees

within reach by accelerating the phase-out of coal, curtail deforestation, speed up the switch to electric vehicles, encourage investment in renewables. On the other hand, as shown by COP26 the emissions of greenhouse gases have already led to detrimental damage for the future of the globe’s environment. This means some of the effects of climate change are inevitable and need to be delt with using adaptation strategies to prevent the deaths of people from different countries around the world. This can be resolved using adaptation strategies that will help save millions of lives. However, adaptation is a short-term method in terms of the cost-effectiveness to deal with the continuous risks that climate change will cause for a long time. On the other hand, mitigation will help reduce the risks caused by climate change and save millions of lives on a longer term but will require continuous effective planning before the risks of climate change will be much more catastrophic and will not be effective for saving lives. Thus, to some extent I agree that “while mitigation might save the planet, it is adaptation, preparing for climate shocks, that will save millions of lives,” since mitigation can save the planet and lives alone, but it is more likely that inputting effective adaptation methods will be a safer option in making sure more people survive.

There is a pattern to notice amongst the exports that countries trade. The discovery of oil reserves in Pennsylvania, USA was only the start of the country’s extreme wealth. USA has held the top percentage of the global GDP since the 1920s. For decades, crude oil was the most exported product globally, taking up the largest percentage of the world’s exports, however, in more recent decades the world’s top exports have become much more varied.

Nepal only has 0.29 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per capita with a population of 27,263,433.
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Why might the oceans be crucial to fighting climate change?

Climate change is very apparent in our lives, and many talk of how we can help to fight rising temperatures and Carbon emissions on land, yet the ideas of how we can use the other 70% of our planet are usually neglected. In this essay, I will be discussing how we can use our oceans to help fight climate change, while keeping it and its estimated one million species of inhabitants safe.

Since 1970, the ocean has absorbed 93% of human-generated heat that

would otherwise be emitted into the atmosphere causing 10 times higher temperature increase then we have already experienced. As well as this, the ocean has absorbed one third of all emitted Carbon Dioxide. Although this may sound great, the consequences are profound to the heat and CO2 emitted. The added heat to the ocean causes water expansion, which is the main reason for rising sea levels – marine life also must cope with the hotter conditions. Furthermore, the CO2 in the ocean

causes ocean acidification and deoxygenation, which destroys the habitats of marine life and causes them to either perish or relocate to a safer habitat. We can see how the ocean is of significant help to our planet, yet we ourselves are damaging it. As the ocean slowly uses its ability to absorb, it could lead to the reverse affects where it re-emits the saturated CO2 back into our atmosphere, so we must emit less emissions to save our ocean, and we cannot take it for granted.

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Another use of the ocean with less detrimental effects to it involves offshore renewable energy. Scientists have estimated that the ocean has the potential to offer onetenth of the emissions reductions needed to reach the 1.5C target, offshore wind could power the world 18 times more than its current consumption rate. In addition, we could also use the power and characteristics of the ocean to our advantage – hydroelectric energy, tidal energy, wave energy and geothermal energy all involve using the characteristics of the ocean to gain power, for example – wave energy involves devices in the ocean gaining kinetic energy from the vertical movement encouraged by the natural waves of the ocean. These methods of renewable energy could be crucial for creating power without releasing emissions to our planet. However, this renewable energy must be harvested safely, and power plants in the ocean must be sustainable and safe in the environment, for example, being self-sufficient, and causing no harm to the marine life. The potential of renewable power is

incredible but must be done safely and sustainably.

When our ocean is thriving, the plant life within the ocean can play a vital role with fighting climate change,

But, for plants to be able to absorb CO2 most efficiently, they must be in perfect conditions to thrive, which includes un acidic water, a constant temperature, and enough sunlight. This means that in return, us humans must keep our sea safe from acidity, elevated temperatures, and rising sea levels, which may affect the living conditions of the plant life. Currently, only 7% of our ocean is protected and for plant life to thrive, us humans must do better in protecting our oceans.

Plants in coastal areas, such as mangrove forests and seagrass meadows, trap carbon in underwater sediment and soil, and some CO2 is also stored in the fossils of dead animals. Other benefits include the release of oxygen, which bubbles to the surface of the ocean and positively impacts us in return.

As well as biological support, the ocean also supplies our planet with a more sustainable method of transport, along with a reasonably sustainable way to attain food in the form of sea food, however both factors are currently exploited for wealth and human benefit across the world, which takes advantage of what the oceans give us and in return, damage our environment. The shipping industry alone has a similar carbon footprint to Germany, if the industry were to be a country, then shipping would be the world’s sixth-largest emitter. The ocean gives us a great opportunity to be

since plants naturally absorb CO2 during photosynthesis.
85% of all plant life lives in the ocean, and so if they are thriving, they can efficiently absorb Carbon Dioxide.
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able to transport anything across the world in the most efficient way (compared to the likes of land and air transport), but as a result, we must keep our oceans healthy and clean. The current food industry is responsible for one-third of the world’s carbon emissions, and the ocean can help get everyone fed through fishing, but this must be done sustainably in order for us to continue fishing into the future – some have suggested temporary no-fishing zones to allow the population of fish to grow to a sufficient amount that after a certain

length of time, fishing in that area can happen again.

In conclusion, the oceans fight climate change for our planet so much more than we expect, and the sustainable opportunities that present themselves are vast, yet by the ocean helping to tackle climate change for us, we must help it in return, because synergy with our oceans can be key to human development and limiting climate change. By keeping the waters safe and clean, the ocean and all that lives in it can thrive.

Sources used for research: Scientists argue the oceans should play a bigger role in Green New Deal climate change policies | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Opinion | How Biden Can Use the Ocean to Fight Climate Change (yahoo. com)

Why are wetlands so important in the fight against climate change? (msn.com) https://theconversation.com/the-oceanis-essential-to-tackling-climate-changeso-why-has-it-been-neglected-in-globalclimate-talks-171309

https://www.climateaction.org/news/theocean-has-absorbed-more-than-90-ofthe-heat-gained-by-the-planet https://cdn.pixabay.com/ photo/2018/09/12/14/44/finedust-3672343_960_720.jpg

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To what extent should we engineer the climate?

Saul (Year 9)

Introduction

Two broad strategies have been identified to halt climate change and keep global warming within 1.5oc: mitigation and adaptation, reducing emissions to prevent climate change and managing the risks of the impact of climate change. Geoengineering sits within the fatalist strategy of adaptation and is defined by the natural scientist Matt Watson as “the purposeful intervention into the climate systems to reduce the worst side effects of climate change”, intervening into the planet’s natural systems and contracting the impact of the greenhouse effect. This essay will discuss if the benefits of geoengineering outweigh its negative impacts on the planet.

For

On one hand, we should engineer the climate as solar radiation management is effective as a technique to delay the

immediate consequences of climate change. SRM works by releasing sulphur and other reflective particles into the atmosphere to evenly surround the globe and reflect the sun’s light, cooling down the planet temporarily. This is carried out by drones spraying sulphur particles. It would cost a manageable US$2.25 billion per year over 15 years, a fraction of the cost of alternatives such as carbon dioxide removal. This means it is an effective way to allow governments to gain time to work on mitigation of climate change, such as switching to sustainable hydroelectricity. It is vital to managing climate change and allows us to be responsive to global warming.

Carbon Dioxide removal (referred to as CDR) is the process where CO2 is removed from the atmosphere and injected into the ground indefinitely. The carbon from CDR can fertilise ocean ecosystems to accelerate growth of plankton,

increasing biodiversity.

It also avoids international political conflicts over oil as switching to sustainable energy sources through mitigation would not be needed as a strategy, which is vital as it may avoid conflict and mass loss of life. As of March 2022, it is clear that the UK’s, for example, fuel prices are vulnerable to change. Diesel’s price rose by 5.5p in a week alone due to issues with supply from Russia and the consequences globally of its invasion of Ukraine. This shows the sheer fragility of the UK’s dependence on energy, a balance which can be broken with rapid changes to different energy sources. In addition, demand will be present for CDR solutions, opening up the opportunities for private businesses to profit off CDR whilst benefitting biodiversity, perhaps prompting governments on larger scales to opt for CDR which is effective when rolled out.

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Against

On the other hand, SRM is only a short-term solution, which, given its effectiveness, may be taken as a long-term one with dangerous consequences. This is a “lock-in” where nations will be too involved in the technology that it will cost more money to abandon than continue, despite other technological solutions being more effective. Politicians have incentives to continue SRM continuous schemes with focus on short electoral periods of time. This matter because the halt of SRM after a long period of time (if it is impossible to hold up because of war or economic collapse) can cause termination shock, a large and rapid increase of global temperatures which would increase in accordance with the previously ongoing and overlooked (due to SRM posing as a solution) so SRM’s fragile positive benefits will be reversed. This shows that we should not engineer the climate due to catastrophic risks if it is halted and uncertainty around its effectiveness, whilst mitigation solutions have been proved.

Furthermore, Carbon Dioxide Removal is expensive to roll out and ineffective.

As of June 2021, the most promising carbon capture technology costs almost US$96-232 for every tonne of CO2 to be captured, but only if it is on a large commercial scale, which is not feasible at the moment due to its cost and people looking for more affordable climate change solutions.

his raises the question of how a scaled-up CDR system would work. Even if the initial hesitancy and fear of CR is overcome, it is only an option

for high-GDP nations who have the capability to afford it, despite it being ineffective. A large number of rapidly developing nations would be better off investing in successful technological solution, or (for less economically developed nations) even focusing on prioritising dealing with inequality and diseases such as Malaria. Therefore, it is impossible to scale up.

Moreover, 10 gigatonnes (10 billion tonnes) of CO2 must be captured by 2050 to achieve the bare minimum to avoid dangerous levels of global warming. This matters as the billions of dollars needed could be more effectively spent on converting to wind or solar energy, a sustainable source. This would be expensive, but only a one-time investment, whilst CDR has to occur constantly as we emit CO2 at the same rate. Climate Change models, consistently accurate in large numbers, forecast that CDR relies on a mitigated reduction of CO2 emissions to have any effect. Moreover, as the graph opposite shows, CDR encourages further emissions, leading to more money needing to be spent on CDR meaning it is ineffective and not economically viable. They are also only effective in rollout in the long term and a peer-reviewed study found that CDRs “would only start to deliver too late.”

Furthermore, Matthew Watson argues that the IPCC (international panel for climate change) should only consider climate engineering under stable “global governance… only when it is clear that we are a long way down the path to decarbonisation”

https://cdrprimer.org/ assets/figures/cdr-primerfigure-1-1-lt.png?v7

Currently, geoengineering is done on a small-scale privately, so no meaningful difference can happen. As seen in international climate change conferences such as COP26, a lack of leadership is present and there are many different, often contradictory, interests and visions based on each countries’ economic status. This makes it hard for meaningful changes to occur. If geoengineering is only feasible when done globally, then it is hardly feasible at all. This is in stark contrast to offshore wind which can be effectively rolled out individually by nations. Geoengineering is a needless waste of resources.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I believe that the climate should be engineered to a very small degree in the short term to gain time for structural changes, mitigating climate change by reducing future emissions. SRM should only be used for a regulated short period of 5 years, to avoid long-term acceleration of global warming and a pointless expense. Carbon dioxide removal should be heavily regulated to avoid the perception that it is an economically feasible alternative to switching to sustainable energy sources, such as offshore wind in the UK. The Centre for International Environmental Law argues that carbon capture solutions “cannot play any significant role in the rapid reduction of global emissions necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C”. Ultimately, geoengineering should scarcely be used, and as a Global Witness-commissioned study outlined that “reliance on CCS is not a solution”.

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Literature Review

Should we be eating bugs and insects rather than beef to help us avoid disastrous climate change?
Grace
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Photo of Skew

This literature review considers whether eating bugs and insects rather than beef could help avoid the environmental crisis currently facing humanity. According to a 2021 United Nations study issued at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and food production have risen 17% per cent over the past 30 years, accounting for 31% (16.5bn tonnes) of greenhouse gas emissions in 2019. When put together with the comments in an article on the Natural History Museum website which states that ‘Economically and ecologically, it’s much more efficient to rear insects than livestock.’ (Hopkinson: year unknown, www), this suggests that eating insects rather than beef is better for the environment and would be easier to produce than livestock. Although the date the article was written is unclear, it is from a respected institution and references current UN population growth estimates and current statistics from the UN food and Agricultural organisation and therefore can be considered a relevant source.

One source showing that eating bugs and insects instead of meat is an effective switch to make is a study published in the European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, it notes that insects offer ‘between 9.96 g and 35.2 g of protein per 100 g, compared with 16.8–20.6 g for meat.’ (Payne et al: 2016, www) Although these findings show that the amount of protein does vary quite a lot depending on which insects are being eaten, of over 2,100 types of edible insects, the authors report that crickets, certain types of ant and mealworms show the most potential, due to their high calorie and protein density. The authors go on to note that as the world

population continues to rise, from 7.7 billion in 2019 to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100, insects could prove to be a potential alternative source of protein that can be produced on a sustainable, large scale. The study goes on to explain how farming insects can be carried out at low cost and with a reduced impact on the environment, compared to livestock farming. By way of example, the authors point out

taking place in Southeast Asia since the late 1990s, citing the examples of the production of palm weevils and crickets in Thailand. Similarly, the African palm weevil and Mexican grasshopper, which are both delicacies, are also now being produced commercially in their respective regions. This information can be considered reliable because it is sourced from a peer reviewed academic journal and authored by respected experts in their field at Oxford University and Rikkyo University, Tokyo.

(Payne et al: 2016, www) Although insects have not been farmed on a commercial scale for human consumption until fairly recently, the study goes on to point out that edible insects have been a useful and important source of protein for thousands of years. For example, the mopane caterpillar is sold widely in local markets and supermarkets in southern Africa, and in recent years there have been attempts to farm mopane worms in dedicated mopane forests, planted specifically to meet increasing demand for the worms. Elsewhere in the world, the authors note that insect farming for human consumption on a commercial scale has been

In an article published for the 2022 World Economic Forum annual meeting of business leaders in Davos, argue that human consumption of animal protein is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions and thus climate change and that insects are an overlooked source of protein and a way to combat climate change. The authors point out that farming of insects use ‘less land, less feed, less water, less transport fuel and less human labour’ (Awaysheh and Picard: 2022, www) when compared to rearing livestock, and as a result, has a significantly smaller environmental impact on the world. They also note that, while the plants grown in arable agriculture do not produce greenhouse gases in their own right, ‘they do require land and machinery use, water use, manufacturing, processing and transportation, among other matters - all, during which, carbon is emitted’. (Awaysheh and Picard: 2022, www) We can trust the source of this information because it is written by two professors at recognised US universities and is published by the renowned World Economic Forum.

Another benefit of entomophagy is that insect farming can provide a stable income for farmers,

that
‘farming insects use (sic) up to 50 to 90% less land per kg protein, 40 to 80% less feed per kg edible weight and produces 1000–2700g less GHGEs (greenhouse gas emissions) per kg mass gain than conventional livestock.’
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particularly in less developed countries, a point made by Doberman, Swift and Field who conclude that producing edible insects for food could help to ‘level the playing field’ (Doberman, Swift and Field: 2017, www) regarding farmer incomes. As they note, insect farming ‘does not require a lot of land or expensive machinery. Even the poorest segment of the population in our least developed countries can do it and make a profit’. (Doberman, Swift and Field: 2017, www) They estimate that insect farming can also provide a stable income to established farmers, who can earn net incomes of between $5000-$10,000 a year in countries where the average gross income is about $5640 per year, thus bringing wider societal benefits to the poorer members of the global economy. This source of information can be considered reliable since it is authored by three scientists from Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, one of the oldest and most respected agricultural research institutions in the world.

Although it is clear from the above research that eating bugs and insects rather than beef is a much more environmentally sustainable form of food production that has less impact on the environment and can bring wider benefits for society, a large obstacle to implementation

is the suspicious attitude towards insect-eating held by many. However, the practice of eating insects is much more widespread than might be first thought, particularly if looking at the issue from a Western point of view. In fact, as reported by the Guardian newspaper,

in raising these animals is substantial. Approximately 45 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions in animal production is due to the feed production for the animals to consume.’ (Awaysheh and Picard: 2022, www) The authors then go on to report the remarkable statistic, pointing out that ‘Dogs and cats currently consume one quarter of the meat that is produced in the U.S.’ This emphasises the fact that the world is potentially running out of protein which is made by (Payne et al: 2016, www) when they talk about the global population increasing to around 10 billion within 30 years.

(Carrington: 2010, www) As a result, insects are widely eaten in Central and South America, Africa, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Regardless, even if Western take up of insect eating is low and potentially slow to change, there are small and meaningful ways to introduce insect proteins into your food chain. For example, Awaysheh and Picard (2022) suggest that it can be incorporated into our lives as livestock feed. They report that ‘the environmental impact of the feed that is used

Bibliography

This review was intended to assess whether eating bugs and insects rather than beef could help avoid disastrous climate change. The literature reviewed shows consensus amongst scientists that insects can provide a nutritious alternative to livestock while, at the same time, having a significantly reduced impact on the environment through reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Although insects form part of the diet for a large proportion of the world’s population, there are barriers of perception to overcome if insects are to replace more traditional sources of protein in the western world.

Awaysheh, A, Picard, C. (2022). 5 reasons why eating insects could reduce climate change. Available: https://www.weforum.org/agen da/2022/02/how-insects-positively-impact-climate-change/. Last accessed: 24 June 2022.

Carrington, D. (2010). Insects could be the key to meeting food needs of growing global population. Available: https://www.theguardian.com/ environment/2010/aug/01/insects-food-emissions. Last accessed: 24 June 2022.

Doberman, D., Swift, J., Field, L. (2017). Opportunities and hurdles of edible insects for food and feed. Available: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ doi/full/10.1111/nbu.12291. Last accessed: 24 June 2022.

Hopkinson, S. (year unknown). Eat insects, save the world. Available: https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/eat-insects-save-the-world.html. Last accessed: 24 June 2022.

Terazono, E. (2021). Food systems emissions rose 17% over past three decades, UN says. Available: https://www.ft.com/content/c9ba6b7fe8f9-4758-9890-6b53a39f987b. Last accessed: 24 June 2022.

Payne, C., Scarborough, P., Rayner, M., and Nonaka, K. (2016). Are edible insects more or less ‘healthy’ than commonly consumed meats? A comparison using two nutrient profiling models developed to combat over- and undernutrition. Available: e.

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‘more than 1,000 insects are known to be eaten by choice around the world, in 80% of nations. They are most popular in the tropics, where they grow to large sizes and are easy to harvest’.

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/datablog/2017/apr/26/ inequality-index-where-are-the-worlds-most-unequal-countries

What does the future hold for global income inequality?

Income inequality can be traced back tens of thousands of years with some of the most prominent examples being displayed in ancient Egypt and Mediaeval Britain. Therefore, from a logical standpoint, it could be expected that this inequality would have shrunk to extinction throughout the numerous years between Egypt and the present day. However, in reality, inequality is as potent

as ever. In the western world this crisis is commonly looked at as being a problem for only those in developing countries. However, the harsh reality is that every country’s economy from Asia to Africa to the United States faces a different classification of income inequality to an almost surprisingly alarming level.

If global inequality continues to rise at the rate that is has been rising since the 1980’s, then global income inequality will rise very steeply, even under the most optimistic assumptions regarding growth in

emerging countries. The top 1% of the global population owned 20% of global wealth in 2018 and this is projected to rise to 24% by 2050, while the bottom 50% of the populations share will fall from 10% to less than 9%. (Alvaredo F, 2018)

Whilst some degree of inequality will always be inevitable, extreme divisions of inequality can have extremely far reaching and longlasting consequences. Until global inequality is much more widely recognised and fully understood, solutions to this crisis will never be found.

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Has inequality has risen too far? How to reverse it and how to prevent extremes from arising.
Graph shows Gini coefficient index estimates for 140 countries, World Bank, 2020

How Covid-19 exacerbated

The ongoing COVID-191 pandemic has exacerbated global income inequality and the jeopardized the previous progress made in reducing income inequality in the previous two decades.

The inequality explosion seen during the global pandemic was largely enabled by the skyrocketing stock market prices, a boom in unregulated entities, a surge in monopoly power and privatisation alongside the erosion of real wages.

Monopoly power is a large proportion of market share with limited competition. This increased during Covid as the economy became much more digitalised with heavier reliance on e-commerce causing firms such as Amazon to gain large amounts of monopoly power. As monopoly power increases in an economy, firms are more likely to charge higher prices and exploit consumers. This for example has a regressive impact on low-income households and widens global inequality.

Inequality is now prolonging the course of the Covid 19 Pandemic, which has led to a sharp increase in poverty around the world which will continue to grow as the inequality gap widens. ‘More than 80% of the vaccines have gone to G20

countries, while less than 1% have reached low-income countries’. (Oxfam, 2021) In some countries the poorest people were nearly four times more likely to die from the Covid 19 than the richest.

The increase of inequality within individual countries caused by the pandemic may become entrenched as pandemic-induced disruptions to education and the disproportionate adverse effects on low-income households may worsen. High inflation and surging household debt levels may also hamper countries ability to support vulnerable groups and facilitate recovery and sustainable growth. (World Bank, 2022)

The next phase of automation could also further exacerbate global inequality. Automation is the substitution of machines and algorithms for tasks previously performed by labour. The pandemic has certainly given employers more reasons to look for ways of substituting machines for workers. Machine learning and artificial intelligence could take over many tasks previously performed by humans. In healthcare, engineering or manufacturing for example. Increasing job losses and further driving economic growth. (World Bank, 2022)

Where do the widest gaps between rich and poor exist?

The Gini coefficient index is the most widely used measure of inequality between countries. It is used to estimate how far a county’s wealth or income distribution deviates from a totally equal distribution. Therefore, using the most recent World Bank Gini index estimates, South Africa, Namibia and Haiti are among the most unequal countries in terms of income distribution.

How can global inequality be reduced?

Complete global equality within society is impossible to achieve and arguably also undesirable. However, a comprehensive strategy is imperative in helping to steer the global economy onto a more inclusive and equal development path. In order to improve both between-country inequality and in-country inequality, this strategy must involve measures to broaden access to education, health care, digital services and infrastructure and more debt relief from international organisations.

Greater spending by governments on health and education can lower poverty rates and the persistence of income inequality across generations. A healthier and more educated population will also have higher productivity rates which will increase the rates of economic growth. However, a common misconception is that higher growth rates or a larger economy will lead to less inequality. This is not the case. Increasing the size of the pie will not necessarily mean that everyone has a bigger slice. The benefits of economic growth are rarely shared equally.

To reduce inter-country inequality, inequality reduction policies within LIC’s must be prioritised. As LIC’s generally have more inequality than HIC’s, e.g. Namibia is an LIC with a GINI Coefficient of 0.591, compared to the UK; a HIC with a GINI coefficient of 0.394. In LIC’s, there may be limited access to education and secure work, hence policies should be introduced in which high income countries can increase their contributions to the World Bank, of which will then be distributed amongst LIC’s. This will provide certain LIC’s with sufficient funds to initiate campaigns to improve the education standards within these countries, such that a greater proportion of the population has the necessary skills to obtain a more secure and higher paying job. HIC’s will also benefit from donating further into the World

the rates of rising global inequality?
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Bank, as this will improve their international relations with LIC’s, and therefore as the LIC develops, this will improve the efficiency and quantity of trade between these countries, inadvertently developing the LIC further due to the increased level of trade, therefore contributing towards higher incomes in the lower income country. The benefits of donating more into the World Bank can be shown through how the World Bank aided Bangladesh in September 2016, when a sanitation project provided 1.2 million people with access to improved water sources reducing global inequality.

However, for the population to move towards higher income jobs, more infrastructure must be developed within these countries to facilitate this. Hence, due to an increase in contributions from HIC’s, LIC’s can also use these funds to build their infrastructure to attract TNC’s (Transnational Corporations), which will provide work opportunities for the population of these low-income countries. However, over reliance on LIC’s can be undesirable and increase levels of inequality due to the exploitation of workers. The introduction of TNC’s and increased industrial advancements can also increase regional inequality, widening the rural-urban divide.

In order to make sure the funds that the HIC’s have put into the world bank are being used effectively, routine check-ups should be made by officially recognised regulatory bodies within these LIC’s, helping to reduce the impacts of corruption. Furthermore, there should be routine inspections on the working conditions within these TNC’s in the low-income countries, to make sure the workers are in good conditions, and are earning a suitable wage, which will therefore reduce wealth inequality within countries, as most of the workers’ incomes will increase. The importance of this can be shown through how in Bangladesh, there are less than 200

inspectors as of 2013, which meant that check-ups were not routine, which led to 1,100 workers dying due to the Rana Plaza collapsing. (International Labour Organisation, 2014) Therefore, more routine inspections will prevent problems such as this from arising in the future.

Moreover, to reduce wealth inequality in developed HIC’s, although more difficult, certain strategies can be implemented. A possible strategy to reduce wealth inequality in the UK is to increase income tax on the wealthier individuals, possibly by creating a further tax bracket, with individuals whom annual income is between £150,000 to £500,000 must pay between 50% to 60% of their income, which the government can use to help reduce poverty.

As a broader, more general idea, work campaigns can be promoted, with possibly the national minimum wage rising, which could be funded by the rise in income tax of the top 0.5% to 0.1% of the country, as mentioned above. However, progressive taxation and welfare transfers are often not the most effective strategies for achieving global equality, especially as they are very controversial and unlikely to be achieved.

calculation looks in the future.

Therefore, the future of global inequality depends largely on government actions and the role of international organisations. Improved international relations and internal infrastructure improvements are necessary in order to achieve global sustainable and equitable development and to reduce the amount of global inequality.

Sources used for research: Alvaredo, F. 2018. The World Inequality Report: 2018. Cambridge, MA and Lon don, England: Harvard University Press. Oxfam. (2021). A deadly virus: 5 shocking facts about global extreme inequality. Available: https://www.oxfam. org/en/5-shocking-facts-about-extremeglobal-inequality-and-how-even-it. Last accessed 13/06/22.

World Bank. (2022). Inequality in Southern Africa: An Assessment of the Southern African Customs Union. Avail able: https://documents.worldbank. org/en/publication/documents-reports/ documentdetail/099125303072236903/ p1649270c02a1f 06b0a3ae02e57eadd7a82. Last accessed 15th Jun 2022.

International Labour Organization, 2014. The Rana Plaza Accident and its aftermath. [Online] Available at: https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/geip/ WCMS_614394/lang--en/index.htm

World Bank, 2021. Accelerating Sustain able and Inclusive Economic Growth. [Online]

Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/ en/about/annual-report/our-work

(World Bank, 2021) Boris Johnson has however promised large tax cuts that are likely to alter how this

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In the UK for example the top 20% of earners earn 12 times as much as the poorest 20% before redistribution through tax and benefits.

What is Russia’s aim with Ukraine?

(Written May 2022)

Avital and Leo (Lower Sixth)

Timeline of Recent History:

1922 – Russia and Ukraine become members of the Soviet Union, 1991 – The Soviet Union is dissolved, and Ukraine is in control of their sovereignty. Subsequently numerous nuclear weapons are inherited by Ukraine from the possession of the Soviet Union, making it in possession of the third largest nuclear stockpile globally, Dec 5, 1994 – The Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gives up its nuclear arsenal in return for Russia respecting its sovereignty and independence Dec 2004 – the Orange Revolution, Of the presidential candidates, one with a western orientated view was poisoned right before the election. Protestors took to the street and forced a re-vote, 2008 – Russia makes it clear it is against Ukraine joining NATO as it begins plans to do so, April 2014 – Russia invades and annexes Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea and continues into Donbas, the conflict that followed resulted in 13,000 Ukrainian fatalities, 2014 and 2015 – Minsk Accords signed by Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany agreeing to a cease-fire. April 2019 – Volodymyr Zelensky is elected with a significant majority and becomes the president of Ukraine. One of his campaign pledges is to return Donbas to Ukraine, 10 Nov 2021 – reported build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, 2021-2022 – Russia demands “security guarantees” that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the alliance draws back troops from countries that joined after 1997. These are rejected, 17 Jan 2022 – Russian troops begin arriving in Belarus for military exercises, 24 Jan 2022 – NATO puts troops on standby, 22 Feb 2022 – US announces full sanctions on Russian banks and seized assets of oligarchs and Germany cancels plans for Nord Stream 2, 24 Feb 2022 – Russia launches invasion of Ukraine, 26 Feb 2022 – 100,000 Ukrainian refugees have arrived in Poland. The US offers to evacuate Zelensky who responds saying “I need ammunition, not a ride,” 28 Feb 2022 – first round of ceasefire talks begins but are abandoned after only 5 hours. Ukraine applies to join the EU. 500,000 Ukrainians have now fled,

3 March 2022 – Russian troops seize Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – the largest in Europe, fuelling tension of global consequences like the Chernobyl incident of 1986,

8 March 2022 – 406 civilian deaths recorded in Ukraine, but figure is probably much higher.

22 March 2022 – less than one month into the invasion and already 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced.

25 March 2022 – Russian Ministry of Defence announces its focus is on “liberating” the Donbas region, Ukraine

1 April 2022 – rumours of the Bucha Massacre start to emerge, with evidence of Russian soldiers brutally killing dozens of citizens. Putin is accused of being a “war criminal”

13 April 2022 – the focus of the Russian effort as well as foreign aid is shifted to Donbas. The USA are increasingly aiding Ukraine with weapons as well as training; they donate heavier weaponry including M777 Howitzers

1-16 May 2022 – Ukraine launches a counteroffensive in Kharkiv and manage to push the Russians back towards the border. The situation in the Donbas is unclear and unsteady.

18 May 2022 – Vadim Shishimarin, a Russian soldier, pleads guilty of a killing a 62-year-old Ukrainian Civilian, the first of 41 other Russian soldiers to be tried for a war crime.

16 May 2022 – Russian soldiers leave the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant where soldiers and civilians had taken refuge, whilst Mariupol falls under Russian control. 20,000 people had been killed in a siege of Mariupol N.B. This timeline is only up to date to when this article was written. As this is an ever-changing conflict, we acknowledge that when this article is published the situation will inevitably be different and more information about Russia’s motivation may have come to light.

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What Did Russia Want to Achieve by Invading Ukraine?

On Thursday 24 February Putin publicly addressed his nation to say that he did not feel “safe” or able to “develop and exist” because Russia was threatened by Ukraine. There has been much speculation about Russia’s reasoning behind their violent, unprovoked invasion, with many finding it difficult to understand what benefit Russia could gain from wreaking destruction across a sovereign state, one with allies in America and Europe.

Initially, Russia aimed to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, an inter-governmental military alliance, by which Russia feels threatened because of its history as an enemy of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has, in recent years, received training, weapons and equipment from NATO countries,

showing an increasingly closer bond. As Putin entered Ukraine for his military invasion, he accused NATO of threatening his “historic future as a nation” potentially hinting at the Soviet, which is worrying to former USSR states as well as all of Russia’s enemies. Despite the fact that Ukraine has not even obtained an Action Plan for Membership, the first step towards becoming a member, Russia wants a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, in order to ensure a buffer zone off its border and prevent US troops from stationing in Ukraine. However, is this a justification for invasion?

Launching the invasion, Putin declared he wanted to rid Ukraine of its “extremist, Nazi” government. Being Jewish, Volodymyr Zelensky rightfully denies these claims made against his state, which is a vibrant democracy. Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi and the

Auschwitz Memorial have rejected and condemned this harmful narrative. The irony, though, goes beyond that; President Putin has now been accused of war crimes (by President Biden and Boris Johnson for deliberate killing of civilians), and by some countries including USA of genocide.

What does President Putin Want Now?

Whilst initially aiming to control Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, after a series of setbacks Russia has now declared its aim is to “liberate the Donbas”. Russia had already captured a third of this area in 2014, and now aims to control it all, which will give them a land corridor to the Black Sea. This is key for Russia, as its other ports is frozen over for many months each year, hindering trade. Russia has clearly reduced its aims.

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Putin is also desperate for a victory which he can present to his nation, in order to avoid embarrassment, improve his popularity, and rally up more patriotism. Therefore, it is unlikely any negotiations will take place – there is no end in sight. Even as of June when this article is being written, the war in Ukraine is still trending on Twitter and featuring daily in all newspapers, proving it is at the forefront of all our minds.

How far is Russia willing to go?

Although Russia has faced many setbacks and is showing signs of slowing down and decreasing its grand aims, the Kremlin may still go as far as to try to overthrow the democratically elected government. This is evidenced by President Zelensky saying that he had been warned that “the enemy has designated me as target number

one; my family is target number two.” Putin is also willing to hold on to his pretext and makes it clear that he wants to free Ukraine from oppression and “cleanse” Ukraine of “the Nazis” and has mentioned that he will indite “those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians” to a court of justice. This is ironic since

Putin has also damaged Babyn Yar which is Ukraine’s holocaust memorial, when his justification of the invasion to attack Ukraine was in the name of removing the “Nazi” government.

Russia denied aiming to occupy Ukraine or plotting to install a proKremlin puppet government to replace of Zelensky’s democracy. However, he also stated there would be no invasion of Ukraine; so, is Putin’s word to be trusted? On the 26th of February 2022 Putin published an editorial saying that he wanted to restore the Soviet Union by bringing together the world of

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Putin has personally commissioned his soldiers into committing vast numbers of war crimes, from simply entering Ukraine without provocation, to
attacking civilian areas such as the Freedom Square causing at least 45 casualties.

Russians, including Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians. In 2021 Putin wrote a piece about how Russia and Ukraine are “one nation” and that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the “disintegration of historical Russia”. This is especially concerning as currently Putin occupies the regions of the Crimea in Ukraine as well as having installed a puppet government in Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko (a government that is de facto reliant on Russia), proving that he is making good on his word. A new Soviet Union would infringe

on countries’ such as Ukraine’s national sovereignty. The centralised nature of the Union prevents many civil rights of the Ukrainian and surrounding nations’ people by denying them the right to vote. Therefore, for many postsoviet states, as well as the EU (whose member states include some that were previously in the USSR), Putin’s determination is threatening.

Conclusion

The secretive nature of Putin’s regime means that we can never be certain about the plans of

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Russia and its president. Russia has been known to conceal its aims and actions even from its own people. Its word cannot be trusted. Whilst we may live in wait, unsure how long Russia will persevere for and when the attack may stop, we have a fairly accurate idea of the benefits they will get if successful in Ukraine: access to a sea port, a larger (partly Russian) population, and satisfied nostalgia. However, NATO will never disappear and as it appears, the Ukrainian population shows no signs of stopping fighting. Reference list

BBC News. 2022. Why has Russia invaded Ukraine and what does Putin want?. [online] Available at: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-eu rope-56720589> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Cbsnews.com. 2022. 100 days of war in Ukraine: A timeline. [online] Available at: <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-timeline100-days/> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Bloomberg.com. 2022. A Visual Guide to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. [online] Available at: <https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022ukraine-russia-us-nato-conflict/> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Sky News. 2022. Ukraine-Russia crisis: Why is Moscow so concerned about NATO?. [online] Available at: <https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainerussia-crisis-why-is-moscow-so-concerned-about-nato-12542071> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Cbsnews.com. 2022. 100 days of war in Ukraine: A timeline. [online] Available at: <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-timeline100-days/> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

BBC News. 2022. Ukraine war: Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarin jailed for life over war crime. [online] Available at: <https://www.bbc.com/ news/world-europe-61549569> [Accessed 29 Ju

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How will future global migration patterns change in the face of new political climates?

There is no doubt that, across the world, the political climate is everchanging for a host of reasons. The consequences of this include, inter alia, altering

short and long-term migration patterns across a range of spatial scales. Recent key events outline the changes seen in global and regional migration patterns, such including the

Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, as well as the Brexit referendum. However, as with any future predictions, certainty is not guaranteed, in an ever-changing global environment and in light

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https://cdn pixabay.com/ g

of unexpected events, such as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, both the causes and migration patterns remain indefinite.

Due to the rapid fall of Kabul to the Taliban in August 2021, there has been an increased rate of migration. Afghanistan has been under the burden of war for 40 years and during this time there has been much migration, with many forced to move internally multiple times. Few Afghan citizens have seen their country in peace at any stage of their lives. Once foreign forces had withdrawn from Afghanistan, following a deal between the US and the Taliban, the country is now effectively become under Taliban control and whilst the Taliban forces have pledged not to allow Afghanistan to become a base for terrorism, which would pose a threat to the West, there are many questions as to how the group will control the country and the impact this will have for Afghan citizens. There are questions in particular about what their rule means for women, human rights, and political freedoms.

According to the UN, Afghanistan has the third largest displaced population in the world, which is the term used for “groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalised violence and violations of human rights”. The data from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) shows that 5.5 million people are now internally displaced inside the country. These figures include more than 670,000 who have been forced to leave their homes as of November 2021, of which 60 percent of that total are women and children.

Whilst the key factor currently motivating migration and

possibly affecting future migration is conflict and a lack of security in the country, there are also economic factors. For example, people’s economic status has determined where migrants have and will be able to relocate to; the influence of conflict on rural lives has pushed migration to cities within the country or neighbouring countries. This contrasts urban migrants, of whom tend to be a more educated groups of people, who alternatively can use their status to migrate to more industrialised countries for a better future. This highlights the unequal opportunities associated with migration, dependent on a citizens economic or social status. The poorest citizens of Afghanistan make up a greater proportion of the internally displaced people and are therefore still in possible danger. Within the country, there are many other issues as well and so those who internally migrate are still exposed to these problems. These issues include famine with the economic upheaval that came with the Taliban takeover which

Other problems include the lack of education within the country with as schools were forced to close. “An estimated 3.7 million children are out of school in Afghanistan – 60% of them are girls”. Afghanistan became one of the largest refugeesproducing countries in the world with over 6 million refugees living in both Pakistan and Iran by 2000 as a result of the conflict and political unrest. There have also been refugees in the UK

where over 4,000 of the 16,000 have stayed and looked to permanently resettle here. Even though the current net migration rate in 2022 is –1.507 per 1000 population, it is a 3.34% decline from 2021 suggesting the rate is slowing down. This is partly due to areas of the country stabilising with less conflict, but also future and current patterns suggest that some migrants are returning to their homeland. The UN has urged neighbouring countries to keep their borders open to allow refugees to enter but some countries are reluctant such as Uzbekistan who have no plans to open their borders as they see it as a security threat. This increase in immigration strictness will mean some migrants will have to return or people currently in Afghanistan will have to migrate to alternative places. Most Afghans fear persecution under Taliban rule and hope to seek asylum abroad, especially women whose livelihoods are affected as they may not be able to study or work in their country anymore. The Taliban have prevented women from secondary and higher education. Furthermore, they have made it compulsory for women to “wear a full niqab, which covers the face but not the eyes, or a burqa, covering the body and full face with mesh over the eyes”. “Afghan women and girls are facing both the collapse of their rights and dreams and risks to their basic survival” (Halima Stojanovic, a scholar on Afghanistan talking about women in the Ghazni province.) These are just some of the hardships women face under the Taliban rule. The crisis of the Taliban seizing back control in Afghanistan means on top of the 2.2 million refugees already in neighbouring countries and the 3.5 million forced to flee their homes within the borders, future migration predicts that there will still be a substantial increase in

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left 95% of Afghans without enough food and 9 million people at risk of starvation.

migration out of Afghanistan.

In contrast, the fate of future migration in Europe is most predominantly driven by international governance (Sohst et al., 2020), that is, the degree of international cooperation between member States of the European Union. Other factors also include the level of future economic convergence between world regions, the severity and speed of environmental change, the impact of public opinion on migration policy as the political climate is increasingly influenced by civilians (for instance, by the increasing popularity of social media) and lastly, natural disasters as well as events such as famines and wars (Dubow et al., 2018). Most recently in the case of the EU, the war in Ukraine.

The effect a changing political climate can have on potentially

altering migration patterns across continents in the longterm, is no better evidenced than in the case of Brexit, when the UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in 2016. The implementation of the new post-Brexit immigrant system as of January 2021, will bear the weight of the majority of changes to European migration patterns, having ceased free movement and introducing visa restrictions (The Migration Observatory, 2020). The government’s proposed post-Brexit ‘pointsbased’ immigration system would have a range of impacts on patterns of both study and work immigration (ibid.), however, no new policies have been announced relating to family reunification or asylum, so the government’s Impact Assessment (2020) does not consider how these might change after Brexit.

(The Migration Observatory, 2020). This will lead to a fall in long-term EU worker inflows by a reduction of about 80,000 annually. On the other hand, migration patterns will be further altered by non-EU workers; the lower skill threshold of the proposed points system, in conjunction with lower salary

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To illustrate, estimates show the points system would reduce annual immigration by EU workers to the UK by a huge 70% in only the first five years of implementation
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thresholds, will most likely increase the immigration of this group in the long-term by 10,000 to 30,000 per year (McNeil and Walsh, 2020). Secondly, government estimates show that EU higher education student immigration will fall by 20%, whilst non-EU student immigration will increase by 10% (ibid.). Thus, illustrated by both of these examples, is the expected changes in the numbers of migrants, but also the significant alterations in where immigration flows are coming from internationally.

However, although a clear change in migration patterns and trends into the UK are made evident by government projections, these do not take account of the implications of Covid 19, which has the potential to significantly affect the UK higher education sector and labour market at least in the very short-term, but also, more recently, the conflict in Ukraine. In light of which, exactly 100

References

Acostamadiedo,

days into the war, 3.2 million Ukrainian refugees had already fled to Poland (Wanat, 2022), along with 787,000 to Hungary (Schengenvisa News, 2022), creating a new map of migration across Eastern Europe, but also across the entire continent in a permanent manner,

(BBC, 2022). However, this situation is ongoing and susceptible to further change as countries all over the world alter refugee and visa policy in the face of an everchanging political climate.

To summarise, the political situation in Afghanistan, as

well as changing migration policy due to the results of the 2016 Brexit referendum, will significantly alter migration patterns, in terms of the routes of the migrants as well as the volume and demographic makeup of migrants, in both the long and short-term. Despite the uncertainty surrounding future projections, estimates of data suggest a long-term change will prevail in both of cases, owing to their permanent nature, translating into the political climate. More short-standing and unprecedented events, like the war in Ukraine and onset of Covid-19 lockdowns across the globe, also take their toll on changing migration patterns, however, although the future is unclear, precedents of similar events suggest a transition back to original patterns is likely due to the seemingly temporary nature of these circumstances as humanity naturally strives to return to normality.

BBC. (2022). How many Ukrainians have fled their homes and where have they gone?. Available: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60555472. Last accessed 3rd June 2022.

BBC News – Afghanistan: How many refugees are there and where will they go? – Visual Journalism Team (2021)

BBC News – Afghanistan face veil decree – Lara Owen (2021)

Dubow, T., Fajth, V., Siegel, M. and Strey, A. (2018). DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION FLOWS WITHIN THE EU. Available: https://www. reminder-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/D-3.1-Submitted_28Feb2018_with-cover.pdf. Last accessed 10th March 2022.

Financial Times – US withdraws from Afghanistan – Aime Williams, Benjamin Parkin (2021)

Humans Rights Watch – Taliban deprive women of livelihoods

Macrotrends – Afghanistan net migration rate 1950 – 2022

McNeil, R. and Walsh, P. (2020). Calculating the Bill: The projected impacts of the points-based immigration system after Brexit. Available: https:// migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/calculating-the-bill-the-projected-impacts-of-the-points-based-immigration-system-afterbrexit/. Last accessed 10th March 2022.

Schengenvisa. (2022). Hungary Has Accepted About 787,000 Ukrainian Refugees Since War Started. Available: https://www.schengenvisainfo. com/news/hungary-has-accepted-about-787000-ukrainian-refugees-since-war-started/. Last accessed 3rd June 2022.

UNICEF Afghanistan – Education

USA Today News – Afghanistan near starvation – Holly Rosenkrantz (2022)

Wanat, Z. (2022). Polish cities feel the strain of helping Ukrainian refugees. Available: https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-cities-strain-helpukraine-refugees/. Last accessed 3rd June 2022.

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with the UK having issued 115,000 visas to those fleeing Ukraine as of Tuesday 24 May 2022
E., R. Sohst, J. Tjaden, G. Groenewold and H. de Valk (2020). Assessing Immigration Scenarios for the European Union in 2030 – Relevant, Realistic and Reliable? International Organization for Migration, Geneva, and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, the Hague. Last accessed 10th March 2022.

ALASKA: Anchorage 2018

A magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Alaska in November, 2018. It took place in the Alaska-Aleutian wbduction zone, on a fault within the subducting Pacific slab. Liquefaction and landslides were an immediate effect which added to the damage to infrastructure.

Several people were wounded from debris but there were no deaths.

USA: 2021 Tornadoes

Warm, and temperatures and fast wind speeds developed moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into a series of tornadoes that hit southern states, such as Arkansas and Illinois.

Over 80 people were killed, over 26.000 buildings were without power and water for the day, with damages costing over $3.9 billion.

In response, funds were raised by humanitarian groups such as The Salvation Army and states such as Kentucky provided free housing for those made homeless, in addition to deploying the National Guard.

ICELAND: 2010 EyjafiallajOkull Volcanic eruption

The eruption occurred under an ice sheet as a 500 metre fissure in the volcano opened.

The melting ice and dissolved gases In the lava created a large column of volcanic ash that disrupted over 95.000 flights from Iceland, damaged agricultural land, and caused the closure of major roads due to the knock on flooding caused

HAITI 2016 Hurricane Matthew

In 2016. a category 4 hurricane hit Haiti due to the intensification of a tropical storm originating from west coast from the West coast of Africa. It caused torrential rain, storm surges and winds up to 145mph, causing over 500 deaths, 52 million in damages, the collapse of 70% of houses in the affected areas, and the destruction of many cash crop plantations

CHILE: 2017 Valparaiso earthquake

In 2017 a magnitude 7.1 earthquake affected Chile as a result of the sudden slipping of a locked fault along the subduction zone of the Nazca plate and the South American Plate.

500 deaths were recorded, 12,000 people were injured. 220,000 homes were destroyed, along with 4,500 schools. 560 hospitals, 53 ports and Santiago airport were severely damaged.

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ITALY: Stromboli volcano 2021

On Sunday 1 August 2021, the composite Stromboli volcano erupted, triggered by the subduction of the African tectonic plate under the Eurasian plate. The gases, lava and ash ejected formed a dangerous pyroclastic flow that extended from the volcano to coastal regions.

The government responded by ordering the evacuation of people in nearby towns and raising funds for those affected.

Recent natural disasters

CHINA: 2017 Sichuan landslides

Major landslides in China’s Sichuan province were caused by over three weeks of heavy rains, causing the ground to lose structural integrity and slide along the steep valley slopes. They are also thought to be a delayed effect of rock weathering from a historic earthquake in the same area In 1933

Over 40 homes in the nearby Xinmo village were destroyed and the region was isolated when over 2,000 metres of road was buried

AUSTRALIA: Wild fires 2019

The bushfires in Australia were caused by a prolonged heatwave and drought, due to the long term impacts of climate change. The dry, low humid conditions allow fire to spread quicker as vegetation was quicker to ignite.

BANGLADESH: 2017 Bahmaputra flooding

Heavy monsoon rain in the spring months caused rivers in the northeast of Bangladesh to overflow.

This caused flash floods and landslides that destroyed over 100,000 houses and schools, inundated over 40,000 hectares of crop land and limited the trade of rice, the country’s main staple, affecting the livelihoods of 8 million

The wildfires killed over 34 people, Just under 1 billion animals, and over 14 million acres of land and 6,000 homes were destroyed. Fund raising from government bodies such as the Bushfire Recover Victoria and charities, In addition to firefighters were used to respond.

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Disasters: A Look Back | NASA

Recent natural disasters

With climate change and human influences, hazards will continue to remain and may worsen in the future.

Global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, industry and development is contributing to more frequent and severe meteorological disasters. The impacts of climate change will be very varied as climate change exacerbates local conditions. In some places, this makes hazards such as hurricanes more likely to occur, as increasing global temperatures accelerate sea water evaporation, becoming fuel for more powerful storms,

creating higher wind speeds in hurricanes and more powerful destructive waves in storm surges that increase the threat to vulnerable countries such as Haiti. Furthermore, rising sea levels due to melting ice caps and thermoexpansion will increase the risk of flooding in low lying areas, and this can already be seen in Bangladesh where the combination of multiple river systems and a low elevation means the country is even more vulnerable to rising sea levels. In other places, different types of disasters may be seen, for example drought. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, extreme heat waves are becoming more common. Furthermore, with

intense deforestation occurring between the tropics and the poleward shifting of the intertropical convergence zone, countries with previously low risk are now becoming more prone to climate-change induced hazards.

With climate change increasing the number of countries at risk of natural disasters, more and more developed countries will become more vulnerable, for example the western coast of the USA is already experiencing severe symptoms of drought. However, whilst disasters can occur in any country, NICs and LICs are likely to continue to be the most vulnerable to natural disasters in the future.

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Photo:2021

Future projections show that the increasing severity and frequency of natural disasters mean it is possible that the damage may slow their development. LICs and NICs often have poor hazard prevention and response infrastructure due to a lack of investment in such services. This results in houses and buildings collapsing, transport networks damaged, people homeless, injured, and dead. With growing populations in NICs and LICs, the impact of natural disasters is likely to be exacerbated. This will be because of more people

living in poor conditions in LICs, for example in squatter settlements or in locations below sea level. More people will become vulnerable as space and funding continues to decrease. Furthermore, large scale damage and destruction can set-back development of nations resulting in longer recovery time which can often be slowed by another catastrophe, with the example of Haiti; it is a country that is constantly affected by climatic and geophysical disasters and does not have sufficient funding or ability to improve its economy

and infrastructure. Due to this, these countries may be caught in a vicious circle.

However, as Ester Boserup would argue, humans may also have the power to mitigate damage despite the threats of climate change and overpopulation. As more countries develop, for instance BRICS, they can invest in measures to reduce damage from natural disasters, such as investing in flood walls, earthquake warning systems and disaster response services. This can help countries prepare,

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Photo: Bangladesh; the August 2017 Bangladesh floods - World Weather Attribution Photo: Chile Earthquake 2010 - Internet Geography

withstand natural disasters, and recover from them with minimal damage. Over time, as technology develops, prevention

can become more effective, for example, hurricane or tsunami warning systems may become quicker, hence saving more lives.

Therefore, whilst the future may appear bleak, there may be more hope than there seems.

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Photo: 2018 Anchorage Earthquake - U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov) Photo: One killed as volcano erupts on Italian island of Stromboli thenews-chronicle.com Photo: Wildfire in Australia
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Damage from Hurricane Matthew is seen from the air along the west coast of Haiti, October 6, 2016. Photo by Reuters
https://ops.group/blog/iceland-volcano-alert
https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/after-shocks-ofthe-2008-sichuan-earthquake/

The Habs Geographical Committee 2022

Claudia Avital Sia Reese Raghav Leo Anant Nik
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