Presentation on Megatrends by Future Challenges

Future Challenges â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Global Trends & Interdependencies Hannah Marie BrĂźckmann

Ort, Datum

Global Trends & Interdependencies

Welcome… §  …to our presentation on the global megatrends and their interdependencies §  This presentation leads you through 10 different megatrends who correlate with each of the 9 other trends §  The result are about 300 slides §  In order to give you a chance to not lose the orientation … §  We start with a quick guide of 3 steps that teach you how to use the integrated features that help you to orient yourself

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Global Trends & Interdependencies

Step 1) The Table of Contents

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1) How to use the „table of contents“ §  This is your „table of contents“ §  When you are in the presentation modus you can click on each megatrend in order to get to the part of the presentation you are interested in §  The little button in the right corner always brings you back to the table of contents

Education

Globalization

Demographic Change

Health

Climate Change

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

Technology Security Policy

New Governance Migration

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Global Trends & Interdependencies

2 Examples

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1) How to use the â&#x20AC;&#x17E;table of contentsâ&#x20AC;&#x153; 1) Example Globalization Click on the symbol for Globalization

You are now at the topic of globalization

2) Example Security Policy Click on the symbol for Security Policy

Click on the little button in the right corner and you get back to the table of contents

You are now at the topic of Security Policy

Global Trends & Interdependencies

Step 2) The Navigation

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2) What does the navigation tell me §  This navigation will stay on the right side of the slides for the whole presentation §  The larger symbols indicate which is the current interdependency §  A green background means that the main topic is climate change §  Depending on what is the current interdependency the size of the corresponding symbol changes

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Step 3) Now you can start!

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Klick on one of the megatrends to start your journey Education

Globalization

Demographic Change

Health

Climate Change

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

Technology

Security Policy

New Governance

Migration

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Climate Change

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Demographic Change

Health

Climate Change

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health Natural catastrophies, water shortages, famines Climate Change

Population Diseases due to water and food shortages, air pollution State of health

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health Natural catastrophies, water shortages, famines Climate Change

Population Diseases due to water and food shortages, air pollution State of health

People in developing countries mostly affected 12. Januar 2012

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health The extent and nature of climate change impacts on human health vary §  by region §  by relative vulnerability of population groups §  by the extent and duration of exposure to climate change itself §  by society’s ability to adapt to or cope with the change Climate Change will… §  Increase in worldwide deaths from malnutrition and heat stress §  Reduce worldwide cold related deaths §  Cause spreading of vector-borne diseases (Malaria, Dengue fever) without effective control measures

Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health Number of wheather-related disasters, and number of victims during 1975-2007, reported to the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT.

Quelle: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2009/9789241598880_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health WHO estimates of extra deaths from climate change per million people, 2000

Quelle: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Health Effect

Consequences for Human Health

Direct effects on health

Heatwaves and other extreme events

death, injury, serious illness

Air pollution

Respiratory disease

Indirect effects on health

Food production and supply Malnutrition Vector-borne infectous diseases

Dengue, leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and tick-borne encephalitis

Water-borne infectous diseases

Outbreaks of crytosporidiosis, giardiasis, amoebiasis, typhoid and other infections, cholera

Quelle: http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climchange.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health Impacts of Global Warming on Health, Water and Food Supply Temperature increase

Health

Water

Food

1°C

300 thousand deaths each year from climate related diseases (malaria, malnutrition, diarrhoea)

Water supply threatened for 50 mio people

Modest increases in cereal yields in temperate regions

2°C

40 – 60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa

Potentially 20 – 30% decrease in water availability in some vulnerable regions, e.g. Southern Africa and Mediterranean

Sharp declines in crop yield in tropical regions (5 - 10% in Africa)

3°C

1 – 3 million more people die from malnutrition (if carbon fertilisation weak)

In Southern Europe, serious droughts occur once every 10 years 1 - 4 billion more people suffer water shortages, while 1 – 5 billion gain water, which may increase flood risk

150 - 550 additional millions at risk of hunger (if carbon fertilisation weak)

Potentially 30-50% decrease in water availability in Southern Africa and Mediterranean

Agricultural yields decline by 15 – 35% in Africa, and entire regions out of production (e.g. parts of Australia)

4°C

Up to 80 mio more people exposed to malaria in Africa

Quelle: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

Agricultural yields in higher latitudes likely to peak

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health Climate Change and risk of Malaria transmission

This map displays the projected risk of malaria transmission in the year 2020, compared with the average risk in the years 1961 to 1990. This projection assumes a global temperature increase of 2ยบF and no human efforts to contain the spread of malaria. Source: Pim Martens, Maastricht University Quelle: http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/global-effects/data3.html, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change reduces population growth & worsens the state of health Changing patterns of infectious disease: the example of dengue

Distribution of dengue in 1990 (upper graph) and projected expanded distribution in the warmer, wetter and more humid conditions expected in the 2080s (lower graph), assuming no change in non-climatic determinants of dengue distribution. The colour code shows the predicted probability of dengue transmission occurring within each of the locations. Quelle: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2009/9789241598880_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Links WHO 2009: „Protecting Health from Climate Change“: §  http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2009/9789241598880_eng.pdf

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Education

Climate Change

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Climate Change & Education Destruction of schools Natural disasters

Climate Change

Supply of teachers

Education

Changes in income and health conditions

Learning ability of children

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Climate Change & Education §  Climatic disasters can threaten educational infrastructure making it physically impossible for children to attend school §  Education levels may decline through climate-induced changes in income and health conditions §  Schooling will become less affordable and accessible, as income, assets and employment opportunities are affected by climate change §  Children will need to help more with household tasks or prematurely engage in paid employment leaving less time for schooling §  Deteriorating health conditions will also affect both a child’s learning abilities and school attendance, and the supply of teachers §  Children will be deprived of the long-term benefits of education and be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change

Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Globalization

Climate Change

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Climate Change raises economic costs and increases the gap between developed and developing countries Demage to infrastructure & Property Natural disasters

Provision of medical care

Production of goods and services

Destruction of harvest

Climate Change

Economic costs

Negative impact especially for development of developing countries

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Climate Change raises economic costs and increases the gap between developed and developing countries Climate Change retards economic globalization because… §  …it reduces the production of goods and services through -  Devastation of production facilities -  Destruction of infrastucture -  Focred migration of businesses and residents due to floods -  More resources must be spent on coastal protection §  Especially developing countries will not be able to keep pace with developed countries due to the increasing economic costs of climate change The rising economic costs hit the poor and developing regions the most although the developed countries are responsible for a bulk of climate change 12. Januar 2012

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Climate Change raises economic costs and increases the gap between developed and developing countries Estimated worldwide economic damages due to global warming

Quelle: https://zeitschrift-ip.dgap.org/de/article/getFullPDF/13472, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change raises economic costs and increases the gap between developed and developing countries Economic Costs of Climate Change §  Macroeconomic effects of climate change are measurable as -  Growth rate and level of GDP

One Example: Economic impact of Hurricane Mitch and the 1998 to 1999drought on Honduras

-  Performance of external sector -  Performance of public finances -  Price variations and inflation

§  For low-income countries, major natural disasters today can cost an average of 5% of GDP -  The cost of climate change in India and South East Asia could be as high as a 9-13% loss in GDP by 2100 compared with what could have been achieved in a world without climate change.

Quelle: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter7.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Climate Change raises economic costs and increases the gap between developed and developing countries

Cumulative Impact of succesive disasters on gross capital formation

Quelle: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDISMGMT/Resources/eclac_LAC&Asia.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change raises economic costs and increases the gap between developed and developing countries Developing countries are especially vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change Developed Countries

Developing Countries

A smaller proportion of their economy is in Their economic structure is highly sectors such as agriculture that are most sensitive to an adverse and changing sensitive to climate climate (They are relying on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture) They are located in cooler higher latitudes They are exposed to an already fragile and therefore further from critical environment (geographic exposure) temperature thresholds for humans and crops Adaptive capacity is higher. Richer countries have more resources to invest in adaptation, more flexible economies, and more liquid financial markets to increase resilience to climate change

Their low incomes constrain their ability to adapt

Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change raises economic costs and increases the gap between developed and developing countries Global Exposure to Climate Change

IPCC 2007: â&#x20AC;&#x153;It is projected that those living in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will suffer the most, while some people living in high latitudes will not have any impacts or even benefit from climate change for at least some timeâ&#x20AC;? Source: http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Report/Population_Trends_and_Climate_Change/population_trends_climate_change_FINAL.pdf.pdf

Quelle: http://www.international-alert.org/sites/default/files/publications/A_climate_of_conflict.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

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Climate Change reduces biodiversity and harms ecosystems Climate Change

Temperatures

Harming ecosystems

Shifting â&#x20AC;&#x17E;climate envelopesâ&#x20AC;&#x153; of many species

Migration or extinction of species

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Climate Change reduces biodiversity and harms ecosystems §  Climate change is projected to become a progressively more significant threat to biodiversity in the coming decades §  Many species will have to migrate across fragmented landscapes to stay within their “climate envelope” (at rates that many will not be able to achieve) §  When warming too fast à migration difficult or impossible à extinctions §  Already, changes to the timing of flowering and migration patterns as well as to the distribution of species have been observed worldwide §  In Europe, over the last forty years, the beginning of the growing season has advanced by 10 days on average §  These types of changes can alter food chains and create mismatches within ecosystems where different species have evolved synchronized interdependence, for example between nesting and food availability

Quelle: http://www.cbd.int/2010/biodiversity/?tab=1, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12 Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Climate Change reduces biodiversity and harms ecosystems §  à A warming world will accelerate species extinctions and has the potential to lead to the irreversible loss of many species around the world, with most kinds of animals and plants affected §  à Vulnerable ecosystems are likely to disappear almost completely at even quite moderate levels of warming

Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Climate Change reduces biodiversity and harms ecosystems Temperat ure increase

Environment

1°C

- At least 10% of land species facing extinction - 80% bleaching of coral reefs, including Great Barrier Reef

2°C

-  15 – 40% of species facing extinction -  High risk of extinction of Arctic species, including polar bear and caribou

3°C

- 20 – 50% of species facing extinction, including 25 – 60% mammals, 30 – 40% birds and 15 – 70% butterflies in South Africa - Collapse of Amazon rainforest

4°C

- Loss of around half Arctic tundra - Around half of all the world’s nature reserves cannot fulfill objectives

Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

Impacts of Global Warming on the Environment

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Links IPCC 2002: Climate Change and Biodiversity: §  http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-changes-biodiversityen.pdf

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Climate Change

Migration

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Climate Change increases the number of Environmental Migrants Climate Change

Other natural disasters

Refugees

Droughts

Water shortages

Floodings Loss of yield Shortfall in food supply Famines

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Climate Change increases the number of Environmental Migrants Environmental Migration â&#x20AC;&#x153;Environmentally induced migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroadâ&#x20AC;?

Worse living conditions in developing countries due to climate change impacts will increase migratory pressures on developed countries

Quelle: http://www.ehs.unu.edu/file/get/5301, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change increases the number of Environmental Migrants Future environmental refugees caused by climate change

Quelle: World Foresight Forum 2011, Issue Brief No. 06 â&#x20AC;&#x17E;Environmental Migration: Security Implication of Climate Change, verfĂźgbar unter http://www.hcss.nl/reports/issuebrief-no-6-environment-migration-security-implication-of-climate-change/84/, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Climate Change increases the number of Environmental Migrants Estimates on present and future environmental migration

Quelle: World Foresight Forum 2011, Issue Brief No. 06 â&#x20AC;&#x17E;Environmental Migration: Security Implication of Climate Change, verfĂźgbar unter http://www.hcss.nl/reports/issue-brief-no-6-environment-migration-security-implication-of-climate-change/84/, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Climate Change increases the number of Environmental Migrants Stern Review 2006: Melting or collapse of ice sheets raise sea levels à threaten at least 4 million kilometers of land à home to 5% of the world’s population Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Part_II_Introduction_group.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

Myers 2001: Climate Change will cause up to 200 million more migrants by 2050 à Increased migration flows require policy adaption

Quelle: http://www.akhiljyotish.org/pdf/Accommodating%20Migration.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Links Climate Change and Displacement: §  http://www.fmreview.org/FMRpdfs/FMR31/FMR31.pdf Climate Change, Conflict and forced Migration: §  http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf World Foresight Forum 2011, „Environmental Migration“: §  http://www.hcss.nl/reports/issue-brief-no-6-environment-migration-securityimplication-of-climate-change/84/ German links: §  http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/ hauptgutachten/jg2007/wbgu_jg2007.pdf

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Climate Change

Security Policy

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflictâ&#x20AC;Ś Political Instability Economic weakness Climate Change

Conflict Food Insecurity Migration Distribution conflicts between main responible states and main affected states

International cooperation

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…and decreases chances of constructive multilaterism to combat climate change Political Instability Economic weakness Climate Change

Conflict Food Insecurity Migration Distribution conflicts between main responible states and main affected states

International cooperation

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict §  Climate change and its consequences involve many risks for national and international security §  Climate change leads to -  Political instability -  Economic weakness -  Food insecurity -  Migration §  à which all increase the risk of conflict §  Already weak and instable states will suffer the most from these consequences and need international support

Source: http://www.international-alert.org/sites/default/files/publications/A_climate_of_conflict.pdf

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict §  Climate change does not only lead to an increased risk of intra-state conflicts but also triggers international tension, especially between the main responsible and main affected states of climate change §  There is a high discrepancy between per capita emissions of industrial and developing countries §  Poor countries are the ones that will suffer most from the consequences of climate change §  Therefore they expect the countries with the highest emissions to make the most concessions §  Since the developed countries will not suffer that much from the consequences of climate change in the near future they lack the interest of quick and costly countermeasures §  The result is a conflict of interests the will hamper the international negotiations Source: http://www.international-alert.org/sites/default/files/publications/A_climate_of_conflict.pdf

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict Key risks Political Instability

Weak governance structures à vulnerable to impact of climate change à lack of capacity for provision of basic needs

Economic Weakness

- Poor countries facing additional pressures are more prone to conflict - Climate change can thus increase obstacles to economic development, worsening poverty and thereby increasing the risk of violent conflict is these states

Food Insecurity

- Destabilising effect on ordinary people’s daily lives - In the absence of food security, conflict and migration are almost inevitable consequences

Demographic Changes

Climate-change-related movements of people will place strain on host communities that already have scarce resources

Source: http://www.international-alert.org/sites/default/files/publications/A_climate_of_conflict.pdf

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict Conflict constellations in selected hotspots

Climate-induced degradation of freshwater Climate-induced migration

Climate-induced increases in storm and flood disasters

Climate-related decline in food production

Hotspot

Quelle: http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/hauptgutachten/jg2007/wbgu_jg2007.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 21.02.12

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict International Alert, 2007: - high risk of armed conflict in 46 countries with a total population of 2.7 billion people - high risk of political instability in a further 56 countries with a total population of 1.2 billion people

Failure to help already stressed communities cope with the additional pressure to their livelihoods caused by climate change means that existing grievances will intensify and the risk of violent conflict will increase

Quelle: http://www.international-alert.org/sites/default/files/publications/A_climate_of_conflict.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict Global emissons per head: history and extrapolations

Quelle: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_7_Projecting_the_Growth_of_Greenhouse-Gas_Emissions.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict Poorer countries contribute little to greenhouse gas emissions, but are most vulnerable to health impacts The top image shows countries scaled by total emissions of CO2 to 2002; the bottom image shows countries scaled by WHO regional estimates of per capita mortality from climate change in 2000

Quelle: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2009/9789241598880_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Climate Change increases the risk of conflict Interest conflict

Developed nations: More responsible for global warming, But will suffer less

Conflict

Develpoping nations: Less responsible for global warming, But will suffer most

The divergent interests of developed and developing countries will cause international conflicts

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Links German Links: Welt im Wandel: Sicherheitsrisiko Klimawandel §  http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/ hauptgutachten/jg2007/wbgu_jg2007.pdf

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Climate Change

New Governance

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Combating climate change requires global cooperation Mortality Education Globalization Health Climate Change

Natural Resources and Biodiversity

Need of constructive multilaterism to combat climate change

Migration Conflicts Need for green techonolgies

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Combating climate change requires global cooperation §  Climate Change has severe consequences for our planet and for our lives -  It increases mortality rates and has negative impacts on our health -  It decreases chances for good education -  It rises economic costs -  It reduces natural resources and biodiversity -  It displaces people and triggers conflicts -  It increases the need for green technologies §  Climate Change is mainly caused by CO2 emissions §  Since these emissions do not stop at countries‘ borders it is a global challenge which requires all countries to act according to a common strategy §  Creating such a strategy needs new forms of political decision making 12. Januar 2012

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Combating climate change requires global cooperation Emission trading is one example how market mechanisms can be used to solve specific policy problems What is Emission trading? â&#x20AC;&#x17E;Emissions trading is a market-based instrument that serves to protect the climate. The principle behind it is very simple: greenhouse gas emissions from installations covered by emissions trading are limited to a total amount - the socalled cap - and distributed in the form of tradable allowances. Installations releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere require allowances. The lower the emissions, the more economical for a company. Those that reduce their greenhouse gas emissions can sell the corresponding surplus allowances. Emissions trading is therefore trade in allowances to emit greenhouse gases. It is one of the so-called Kyoto Mechanisms. Emissions trading was introduced in the European Union in January 2005. The Kyoto Protocol also allows international trade in greenhouse gases.â&#x20AC;&#x153; Quelle: http://www.bmu.de/english/emissions_trading/general_information/doc/6940.php, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Combating climate change requires global cooperation Principle of emissions trading Start Company A Previous CO2 emissions 5.000 t

Company B Previous CO2 emissions 5.000 t

Certificates available 4.500 t

Actual CO2 emissions 4.000 t

Actual CO2 emissions 5.000 t

Sale 500 t

Purchase 500 t

CO2 reduction

Trade

Quelle: http://www.bmu.de/files/bilder/allgemein/image/jpeg/emissionshandel_prinzip.jpg, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

The goal of CO2 reduction is achieved. Company A has earned money with the sale of certificates. Company B has spared costly investments.

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Links Emission trading §  http://www.bmu.de/english/emissions_trading/general_information/doc/ 6940.php §  http://www.ieta.org/assets/Reports/46214982-what-s-wrong-withemissions-trading.pdf §  http://www.ieta.org/emissions-trading

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Demographic Change

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Demographic Change

Climate Change

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Population Growth increases Global Warming

Energy consumption

CO2 emissons

Population Growth

Global Warming

Forest clearance

CO2 storage

Sustainable technologies as solution?

Siehe PrĂ¤sentation Dr. ThieĂ&#x; Petersen zu Klimawandel 2009

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Population Growth increases Global Warming

2025 World Population Over 8 billion

2050 Over 9.5 billion

Population Action International 2009: “World population growth will contribute significantly to the growth of greenhouse emissions that occurs over the next few decades” O‘Neill 2009: 1% increase in population is generally associated with a 1% increase in carbon emissions

Quelle: http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/biodiversity/population-and-environment-series/population-climate-linkage.html, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Population Growth increases Global Warming

CO2 emissions rise with growing population

Quelle: http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/wp-content/Pop-vs-emissions.pdf, letzter Zugriff am: 17.01.12

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Population Growth increases Global Warming

more developed regions

less developed regions

10.000.000 8.000.000 6.000.000 4.000.000 2.000.000 0

Unequal growing population in more and less developed regions has consequencesâ&#x20AC;Ś

Continuously high fertility levels in the least developed countries will cause further rapid population growth in those regions, where people do not have adequate resources and are therefore at high risk of the adverse effect of climate changes Quelle: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Population Growth increases Global Warming Changes in population composition §  In addition to the growth of total population size, research shows that changes in population composition (i.e. age, urban-rural residence, and household structure) generate substantial effects on the climate system -  Household structure §

households, instead of individuals in a population, should be used as the variable for analyzing demographic impact on emissions, as households are the units of consumption, and possibly also the units of production in developing societies

§

if one uses the number of households as the demographic variable, demographic factors contribute to 76% of the total increase

-  Age and urbanization impacts §

This estimate of carbon emissions is 45% higher in 2100 than projections that do not incorporate aging and urbanization

Quelle: http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Report/Population_Trends_and_Climate_Change/population_trends_climate_change_FINAL.pdf.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.1212.

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Globalization Demographic Change

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Growing population leads to tensions on the labor market

Pressure on wages Population growth

Supply of workforces

Concerning primarily low qualified people Demand for flexibility Unemployment Inequality of income

12. Januar 2012

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Growing population leads to tensions on the labor market §  With a growing population the supply of workforces increases (especially in China and India) §  This stimulates many developments on the labor market that concern primarily low qualified workers -  Pressure on wages -  Reduced job security and unemployment -  Increasing demands for flexibility -  Rising discrepancy between the incomes of low and high qualified people

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Growing population leads to tensions on the labor market Population growth in western hemisphere and Asia Rate of natural increase %

2050 population as multiple of 2011

Percent of population age <15

0,1

1,0

North America

0,5

1,4

Asia

1,1

1,3

India

1,5

1,4

China

0,5

1,0

1,2

1,4

World

Quelle: Population Datasheet 2011, verf端gbar unter http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Growing population leads to tensions on the labor market 10 most populous countries, 2011, 2050

Quelle: Population Datasheet 2011, verf端gbar unter http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Growing population leads to tensions on the labor market 47199

GDP per capita, 1986, 2010

40152

1986 2010

18427 13026

4428 279

China

315 1475

India

United States

Quelle: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

Germany 12. Januar 2012

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Growing population leads to tensions on the labor market GDP growth % annual 1986, 2010 1986 2010

10,4 8,8

8,8

5,3

4,8 2,5

China

India

United States

Quelle: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

3,7

Germany 12. Januar 2012

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Growing population leads to tensions on the labor market Youth labor force particitpation rate, by region and sex, 2010

Quelle: UNFPA State of World Population 2011, verf端gbar unter http://foweb.unfpa.org/SWP2011/reports/EN-SWOP2011-FINAL.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Aging of societies as a problem for economies of industrial nations Ageing population

Demand for services

Supply of labor Wage rate

Price level

Exports Imports

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Aging of societies as a problem for economies of industrial nations §  The ageing of societies is especially a problem for industrial nations §  A lower share of people at working age and a higher share of senior citizens means that demand for services will increase while supply of labor decreases §  As a consequence the price level will rise §  à which will lead to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports

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Links Global Economic Prospects 2007 §  http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2007/Resources/ GEP_07_Overview.pdf World Bank §  http://data.worldbank.org/indicator UNFPA State of World Population 2011: §  http://foweb.unfpa.org/SWP2011/reports/EN-SWOP2011-FINAL.pdf

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Demographic Change

Health

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Aging populations increase health care costs

Proportion of Senior citizens Demographic Change

Health care budget Proportion of working people

Need for new financing strategies

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Aging populations increase health care costs §  Aging population means a lower proportion of people in work and wagebased contributions à can no longer cover the full costs of health care §  à aging population + shrinking work forces à budget limitations §  à additional funds are necessary to meet constantly evolving health demands §  Developing countries: old-age pension systems often remain poorly adapted to the coming social needs of their societies §  In some developing countries, the impact of HIV/AIDS is an important feature of the demographic structure of the population, in view of the high prevalence among the 20-49 age group and the negative impact it may have on social security contributions

Quelle: http://www.issa.int/Topics/Demographic-changes, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12 Quellen: World Health Report 2010 verfügbar unter: http://www.who.int/whr/2010/en/index.html, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Aging populations increase health care costs

Year

Median Age

2010

29,2

2050

37,2

World median age

Proportion of population 60 years or older: world, 1950-2050

Quelle: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/pdf/62executivesummary_english.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Links World Health Statistics 2010: §  http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat/EN_WHS10_Full.pdf World Health Report: §  http://www.who.int/whr/2010/en/index.html

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Demographic Change

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

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More people on our planet threat natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regenrative capacity and the existence of species

Demand for water, food and other resources

Population growth

Natural resources & biodiversity

Supply of water, food and other resources

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Seite 97

More people on our planet threat nature‘s regenrative capacity and the existence of species §  Our planet’s natural resources can reasonably support about 5 billion people §  Today we have 7 billion people §  We’re consuming commodities and natural resources at a rate of 1.5 Earths §  The greater the gap between human demand and nature’s regenerative capacity à the more pressure there will be on the resources other species need to survive à the more perilously biodiversity will be under threat §  Increase in demand for land, food, water, energy and other resources à as human numbers grow species and their habitat diminish

Quelle: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/blog/living_well_in_a_world_of_7_billion/, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12 Quelle: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/the_footprint_and_biodiversity/, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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More people on our planet threat natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regenrative capacity and the existence of species Living Planet Index Vertebrate species populations declined by almost 30% between 1970 and 2007

Quelle: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/press/LPR2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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More people on our planet threat natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regenrative capacity and the existence of species Global Ecological Footprint Human demand on the biosphere more than doubled between 1961 and 2007

Quelle: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/press/LPR2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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The Ecological Footprint “Bill Rees and Mathis Wackernagel created this concept to measure the sustainability of human lifestyles. It translates human consumption of renewable natural resources into hectares of average biologically productive land. A person’s footprint is the total area in global hectares (one hectare of average biological productivity) required to sustain his or her lifestyle: food and water, clothes, shelter, transportation, and consumer goods and services. The concept allows an analyst to compare the average ecological impact of people from Africa to Australia to China to the United Kingdom to the United States. This measure also allows an analyst to compare the world ecological footprint with the total biological productive capacity of the earth.“

Quelle: http://www.politics.ubc.ca/fileadmin/user_upload/poli_sci/Faculty/dauvergne/15_Cha14.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 02.02.12

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More people on our planet threat natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regenrative capacity and the existence of species Scenarios for dealing with resource consumption overshoot

Quelle: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/images/uploads/Galli_2010_Commonwealth%20Book.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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More people on our planet threat natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regenrative capacity and the existence of species Ecological Overshoot

Quelle: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/earth_overshoot_day/, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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More people on our planet threat natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regenrative capacity and the existence of species Not all people are equal consumers The Footprint of highincome countries is 3 times that of middleincome countries, and 5 times that of lowincome countries.

Quelle: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/press/LPR2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Demographic Change

Migration

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Demographic Change affects migration flows

Young popluation in developing countries

High youth unemployment

Aging population in industrialized countries

Migration

Lack of young workers

Problem: Immigration of unqualified workers

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Demographic Change affects migration flows §  In the future all countries will face the problem of an aging society §  This means that especially developed countries will need more young workers who can carry the burden of the demographic changes §  At the same time developing countries possible face high youth unemployment (as a consequence of demographic change) §  When young people cannot find a job in their home country, they might see the possibility to be more successful in countries where young work forces a needed §  In the developed countries immigration could contribute to a better demographic balance and in the long run be healthy for the economy §  But since developed countries will need relatively high educated people, immigrants from developing countries often do not have the required skills §  This mismatch can easily deepen economic problems (through, for example, greater costs of social security) Quelle: http://tt.europeanideasnetwork.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3&Itemid=9, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Demographic Change

Security Policy

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Demographic trends influence political stability and security Population growth

Demand for natural resources (water, food especially in poor countries) Supply of natural resources?

Young population Need for jobs Youth unemployment

Potential for fanatism, extremism, terrorism

Likelihood of conflict

social, economic, political and environmental context

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Demographic trends influence political stability and security §  Population is an underlying variable for conflict à Demographic changes alone are unlikely to spark political violence, but can influence other triggers of conflict §  The social, economic, political and environmental context matters §  Large numbers of young people in a population, when coupled with socioeconomic problems, can leave individuals more susceptible for recruitment into insurgencies §  Countries with very young age structures have a consistently growing group of young people entering the labor market and seeking opportunities. With sound policies, this can be a benefit. But it can also challenge a government’s capacity to provide sufficient jobs, education and resources for its population, and can increase the likelihood of conflict

Quelle: http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Report/Why_Population_Matters/Why_Population_Matters.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 15.02.12

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Demographic trends influence political stability and security Young age structures are more vulnerable to conflict

Quelle: http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Report/Why_Population_Matters/Why_Population_Matters.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 15.02.12

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Demographic trends influence political stability and security Growing Population in countries with large terrorism presence A security threat for the Western world? Countries with large terrorism presence:

Rate of natural increase %

2050 population as multiple of 2011

Percent of population age <15

Afghanistan

2,8

2,4

Iran

1,3

Iraq

3,0

2,6

Pakistan

2,1

1,8

Syria

2,2

1,5

Sudan

2,4

2,0

Developed countries

0,2

1,1

World

1,2

1,4

27 Population Datasheet 2011

Quelle: http://www.terrorism-research.com/state/countries.php, letzter Zugriff am 15.02.12

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Demographic trends influence political stability and security Rate of natural increase

2050 population as multiple of 2011

3,5 3 2,5

2,8

2,6

2,4

2,2

2,1 1,8

1,2

1,5

1,3 1,3

1,5

1,4

1,1

1 0,5

0,2

0 Afghanistan

Iran

Iraq

Pakistan

Syria

Sudan

Quelle: Population Datasheet 2011, verf端gbar unter http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

Developed countries 12. Januar 2012

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Demographic trends influence political stability and security 44

43 36

Percent of population age <15

27 25 16

Afghanistan

Iran

Iraq

Pakistan

Syria

Sudan

Developed countries

Quelle: Population Datasheet 2011, verf端gbar unter http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Demographic Change

New Governance

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Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation Climate Change Unemplyoment, Inequality of income Growing Population

Natural Resources and Biodiversity Conflicts

Ageing Population

Migration from developing to industrial countries

Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation and new policy mechanisms

Health care budget

12. Januar 2012

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Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation and new policy mechanisms Climate Change Unemplyoment, Inequality of income Growing Population

Natural Resources and Biodiversity Conflicts

Ageing Population

Migration from developing to industrial countries

Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation and new policy mechanisms

Health care budget

12. Januar 2012

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Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation and new policy mechanisms §  Future demographic challenges are population growth and ageing of societies in industrial countries or rather a high percentage of young people in developing societies §  These demographic changes influence our health care budget and international migration flows §  Moreover a growing number of people means a higher need for natural resources which results in decreasing natural resources and biodiversity and proceeding global warming §  Globalization is affected by a growing population by increasing unemployment and inequality of income through a surplus of workforces §  Under certain conditions population growth can also lead to increased risk of conflict §  Since population in non-democracies will grow much faster than in democractic countries, we are facing the question whether the democratic systems of decision making will have a chance to survive 12. Januar 2012

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Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation and new policy mechanisms §  Examples for new mechanisms for political planning and for carrying out governing processes are instruments like -  generational accounting -  regular forecasts -  assessment of the long-term impacts of demographic change §  There is also a need for new communication tools to increase public awareness of the worldwide consequences of demographic change at the individual level

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Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation and new policy mechanisms Rate of natural increase %

2050 population as multiple of 2011

Percent of population age <15

Developed countries

0,2

1,1

Less developed countries

1,4

Least developed countries

2,4

2,1

World

1,2

1,4

Quelle: Population Datasheet 2011, verf端gbar unter http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

Population growth in democracies (developed) and nondemocracies (less/least developed)

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Future demographic challenges require closer global cooperation and new policy mechanisms Growing population in nondemocracies and the need for closer global cooperation

10.000.000 9.000.000 8.000.000 7.000.000 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

more developed countries

less and least developed countries

Quelle: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Education

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Education

Climate Change

Natural Ressources & Biodiversity

12. Januar 2012

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Education is fundamental to tackle the challenges of climate change and decreasing natural resources and biodiversity Education/ Research/ Information Technology

Renewable energies & energy-saving products

Politics/Economics

Develop economic solutions & policy strategies

Society

Change in lifestyle

Natural Resources & Biodiversity Climate Change 12. Januar 2012

Seite 124

Education is fundamental to tackle the challenges of climate change and decreasing natural resources and biodiversity §  The protection of the earth‘s climate and our environment requires 3 main things: -  Technical solutions §

for example increasing the share of renewable energies in electricity production and primary energy

§

more energy-saving products

-  Economic solutions §

agreeing on a certain maximum level of emissions

§

including an introduction of tradable emission rights

§

or the strengthening of the Polluter-Pays-Principle according to which the person who is responsible for climate damage has to pay for the costs of this damage 12. Januar 2012

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Education is fundamental to tackle the challenges of climate change and decreasing natural resources and biodiversity -  Change in lifestyle §

increased information to consumers about the consequences of climate change and possible countermeasures

§

appropriate training for consumers

§

Role of media as a tool to inform people For all this we need well educated experts who can drive the technological progress and economic and political solutions as well as education initiatives and projects that bring climate and environmental related issues closer to the people The Guardian, 2011: “The basic scientific facts that underpin climate change science must be taught in schools – future debate depends on it”

Quelle: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/13/curriculum-climate-change-education, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

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Links Examples for climate education projects §  http://www.acespace.org/ §  http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/klimaschutz-e/klimaaenderungen/ bildung_forschung/index.htm §  http://www.climatechangeeducation.ca/ §  http://www.bgci.org/education/ §  http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0019/001901/190101e.pdf §  http://www.unesco.org/science/doc/cc/CC_seminar_report_071209.pdf !! §  http://climatefrontlines.org/ed_seminar_brochure.pdf

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Education Demographic Change

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With rising educational level fertility rates decrease

Education

GDP

Fertility

We need to use education as a tool to retract the demographic dividend

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With rising educational level fertility rates decrease §  With increasing education mortality and fertitly are decreasing §  Education can thus serve as a tool to retract the demographic dividend §  à we need higher investments in the education systems Thomas Büttner 2011: "A dollar invested in family planning is worth as much as three to four dollars in other projects." Quelle: http://www.focus.de/wissen/wissenschaft/klima/prognosen/tid-23939/weltbevoelkerung-bildung-senkt-die-geburtenrate_aid_676106.html, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

Quelle: http://www.berlin-institut.org/publikationen/studien/afrikas-demografische-herausforderung.html, letzter Zugriff am 01.03.12

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With rising educational level fertility rates decrease Graph of Total Fertility Rate vs. GDP per capita of the corresponding country, 2009.

Quelle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic-economic_paradox, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

12. Januar 2012

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With rising educational level fertility rates decrease

Women without education Women with basic education

Guatemala

Bolivia

Philipines

India

Namibia

Uganda

Angola

Women with secondary-school degree or higher

Average number of children per woman to Education, different years (2005 to 2008)

Quelle: http://www.berlin-institut.org/publikationen/studien/afrikas-demografische-herausforderung.html, letzter Zugriff am 01.03.12

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With rising educational level fertility rates decrease 250

225 222 216

200 150 100

104

50 0 Uganda 2050 A

Probable Population 2050 in million according to various educational investments

Bangladesh 2050 B

2050 C

Scenario A assumes constant rates of school enrollment, which is a big challenge for countries with high population growth because the numbers of schools and teachers have to keep pace with population growth.

Scenario C, the fast lane scenario, ultimately assumes that the internationally desired educational objectives are achieved in all countries.

Scenario B is based on the medium variant of population projections of the United Nations (2008) and indicates how the level of education would improve according to the decreasing fertility that underlies this variant.

Quelle: http://www.berlin-institut.org/publikationen/studien/afrikas-demografische-herausforderung.html, letzter Zugriff am 01.03.12

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Links German Links: Berlin Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung 2011: §  http://www.berlin-institut.org/publikationen/studien/afrikas-demografischeherausforderung.html

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Education

Globalization

12. Januar 2012

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Education boosts globalization

Education

Innovation

Productivity

Use of new technologies

Competitiveness Employment Tax revenue

Public expenditure

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Education boosts globalization §  Benefits of education for the individual: -  Increasing income -  Increasing chances of employment and promotion -  Decreasing risk of unemployment §  Benefits of education for the general public: -  Increasing productivity + new innovations -  à higher economic growth à higher employment rate -  à higher tax revenues -  à lower public expenditures because of reduces unemployment

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Education boosts globalization Present value of Scenario I (Improve student performance in each country by 25 point on the PISA scale) In billion USD (PPP)

Note: Discounted value of future increases in GDP until 2090 due to reforms that improve student performance in each country by 25 points on PISA, or by Âź standard deviation, expressed in billion USD

Quelle: http://www.pisa.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/28/44417824.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Education boosts globalization Present value of Scenario II (improve student performance in each country to reach the level achieved by Finland, the country with the highest performance in PISA) in percent of current GDP

Note: Discounted value of future increases in GDP until 2090 due to a reform that improves student performance in each country to reach the level achieved by Finland, at 546 points on the PISA 2000 scale (average of mathematics and science in 2000, 2003 and 2006), expressed as percentage of current GDP Quelle: http://www.pisa.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/28/44417824.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Education boosts globalization Present value of Scenario III (ensure that all students perform at a minimum of 400 points on the PISA scale) in percent of GDP

Note: Discounted value of future increases in GDP until 2090 due to a reform that ensures that all students perform at a minimum of 400 points on the PISA scale), expressed as percentage of current GDP Quelle: http://www.pisa.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/28/44417824.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Education boosts globalization Trends in educational performance and trends in economic growth rates

Quelle: http://www.pisa.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/28/44417824.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Seite 141

Links OECD 2010: „The High Cost of Low Educational Performance“ §  http://www.pisa.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/28/44417824.pdf

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Education

Globalization

Migration

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Education makes migration easier Home country: Unemployment Saleable skills Education

Better access to information Better in adapting to a new environment

Migration

Host country: Higher wages

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Education makes migration easier §  There is a positive relationship between education and migration: §  Educated individuals find it easier to access overseas labor markets because -  they have “saleable” skills -  they have better access to information -  they are better in adapting to a new environment §  Pull factors: higher wages overseas §  Push factors: -  relatively high unemployment rates at home, especially among university graduates -  difficulty of finding a job that fits the training the graduate received §  à Going abroad often provides greater opportunities to find appropriately high-skilled, challenging work than is available at home Quelle: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/EDU_08-Chap08-Education.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

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Education makes migration easier Economic impact for home country

Economic impact for host country

Emigration reduces domestic unemployment, which tends to be concentrated amoung the young and educated

Immigration removes labor scarcity and leads to fuller utilization of abundant capital

Financial flows to the home country Ă ď&#x192; for developing countries in general, remittances represent the second-largest source of external funding, after Foreign Direct Investment

Immigration gives a boost to economic growth that would not have been possible in the absence of foreign labor

Quelle: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/EDU_08-Chap08-Education.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

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Education makes migration easier Resource Flows to Developing Countries US$ billions Remittances represent the second-largest source of external funding, after Foreign Direct Investment

Quelle: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAC/Resources/Factbook2011-Ebook.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

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Education makes migration easier Brain Drain §  Occurs when a labor-exporting developing country loses its educated workers to a more developed or richer country §  Highest brain drain rates: -  in small island developing countries -  in the least developed countries -  Setting aside small island economies, the highest average brain drain rates are observed in Sub-Saharan Africa (13%), Latin America and the Caribbean (11%), and the Middle East and North Africa (10%) §  Lowest brain drain rates: -  in large and landlocked developing countries

Quelle: http://perso.uclouvain.be/frederic.docquier/filePDF/DLM_WBER2.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

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Education makes migration easier

Stocks of Emigrants from MENA to OECD by Educational Level 1990 and 2000

Quelle: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/EDU_08-Chap08-Education.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 02.03.12

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Links OECD Reviews of Migrant Education 2010: §  http://www.oecd.org/document/ 53/0,3746,en_2649_37415_44870901_1_1_1_37415,00.html#3 International Migration Outlook 2011 §  http://www.oecd.org/document/ 40/0,3746,en_2649_37415_48303528_1_1_1_37415,00.html Docquier and Marfouk 2004: „International Migration by Educational Attainment“: §  http://perso.uclouvain.be/frederic.docquier/filePDF/DM_ozdenschiff.pdf Docquier, Lohest, Marfouk 2007: „Brain Drain in Developing Countries”: §  http://perso.uclouvain.be/frederic.docquier/filePDF/DLM_WBER2.pdf 12. Januar 2012

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Education Health

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Education improves health status Health care costs Income Education

Health

Knowledge of health conditions and treatment regimens Participation in prevention programmes

How can we ensure better health for low educated people? 12. Januar 2012

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Education improves health status §  People with higher education are more likely to have a good job à which means they are likely to have a higher income than those with lower education §  People with higher income are more able to afford health care costs and thus enjoy a better health care §  Additionally people with more education: -  Have a greater knowledge of health conditions and treatment regimens -  Have a better self-management skills than those with less education -  and they have higher participation rates in prevention programmes such as cancer screening §  People with lower levels of education in contrast: -  are more likely to die at a younger age -  and are at increased risk of poorer health throughout life Quelle: http://www.publichealth.ie/files/file/Health%20Impacts%20of%20Education.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Education improves health status §  This diagram shows that education and health are influenced by broad social and economic policies as well as specific education and health policies §  Personal, social and economic factors play a role in determining the health outcomes of education §  The diagram also shows the interdependent nature of the relationship between education and health, indicated by two way arrows.

Quelle: http://www.publichealth.ie/files/file/Health%20Impacts%20of%20Education.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Education improves health status §  Health is not experienced equally by all people à there is a strong social gradient between the average years of good health enjoyed by those in higher socioeconomic groups and those in lower groups §  How can we reduce this social gradient?

The National Bureau of Economic Research 2011: "An additional 4 years of education lowers 5-year mortality by 1.8 percentage points; it also reduces the risk of heart disease by 2.16 percentage points, and the risk of diabetes by 1.3 percentage points." Quelle: http://www.nber.org/digest/mar07/w12352.html#, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

Quelle: http://www.publichealth.ie/files/file/Health%20Impacts%20of%20Education.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 05.03.12

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Links Institute of Public Health in Ireland, 2008: §  http://www.publichealth.ie/files/file/Health%20Impacts%20of %20Education.pdf The National Bureau of Economic Research, „The Effects of Education on Health“: §  http://www.nber.org/digest/mar07/w12352.html

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Globalization

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Globalization

Climate Change

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Economic Globalization as a key driver of climate change Consumption of energy Greenhouse gas emissions

Globalization International freight traffic

Climate Change How can we combine the progress of globalization with more environmental protection? Ă ď&#x192; Sustainabel technologies? 12. Januar 2012

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Economic Globalization as a key driver of climate change §  Economic globalization à greater consumption of energy + rise in international freight traffic §  à Increase in greenhouse gas emissions §  à Economic globalization as key driver of climate change §  CO2 emissions are correlated with GDP per head: §  North America & Europe: 70% of CO2 emissions from energy production since 1850 §  Developing countries: less then 25% of cumulative emissions

Quelle: Stern Review 2006, verfügbar unter http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Economic Globalization as a key driver of climate change World energy consumption 1990-2010

Quelle: http://yearbook.enerdata.net/#/2010-energy-consumption-data.html, letzter Zugriff am 30.01.12

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Economic Globalization as a key driver of climate change World CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 1990-2010

Quelle: http://yearbook.enerdata.net/#/2010-energy-consumption-data.html, letzter Zugriff am 30.01.12

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Links GDP and CO2 emissions §  http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/336

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Globalization Demographic Change

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Increased material welfare causes growing and ageing populations

Globalization Infant mortality Material welfare

Life expectancy

Population

Fertility Ageing population Population

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Increased material welfare causes growing and ageing populations §  Increasing material welfare (increase in GDP) is one effect of globalization §  à more money for health care §  à spread and proliferation of technologies §  à reduced infant mortality, raised life expectancy §  à growing population §  But at the same time: §  With increased material welfare à fertility decreases §  à reduced population growth + ageing population

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Increased material welfare causes growing and ageing populations GDP per capita (PPP) (US$) 1999-2010, world

Quelle: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=67, letzter Zugriff am 30.01.12

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Increased material welfare causes growing and ageing populations GDP per capita 39217

(PPP) (US$) 2011, by region

36691 31548

15460 11902 6596

9557

5519 2381

Advanced economies

2011

Newly industrialized Asian economies

European Union

Emerging and developing economies

Central and eastern Europe

Developing Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa Quelle: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Increased material welfare causes growing and ageing populations Infant mortality rate (deaths/1000 live births) 2000-2011, world

Least developed countries

Infant mortality rate 76 (deaths/1000 live births)

Less developed countries More developed countries

2011, by regions

Quelle: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=67, letzter Zugriff am 30.01.12

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Increased material welfare causes growing and ageing populations Life expectancy at birth (years) 2000-2011, world

Least developed countries Less developed countries More developed countries

Quelle: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=30&c=xx&l=en, letzter Zugriff am 06.03.12

Life expectancy at birth

(years) 2011, by region

68 78

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Increased material welfare causes growing and ageing populations Total fertility rate (children born/woman) 2000-2011, world

Least developed countries Less developed countries More developed countries

4,5 2,6

Total fertility rate (children born/woman) 2011, by region

1,7

Quelle: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=67, letzter Zugriff am 30.01.12

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Globalization

Health

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Positive and negative effects of globalization on health International trade

Prosperity

Sharing of medical research Pooling of technical and financial resources

State of health

Gobalization Trade in health damaging substances (tabacco, alcohol) State of health Spread of diseases (HIV, SARS) Will all people benefit from the positive effects of globalization on health? How can we minimize the negative effects? 12. Januar 2012

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Positive and negative effects of globalization on health Negative effects: §  Increasing trade in foods, medicines and drugs, as well as in healthdamaging substances, such as tobacco and alcohol, toxic waste and products containing hazardous or potentially hazardous substances §  Many countries have limited capacity to regulate food and drugs §  Increased trade in hazardous waste, most of it illegal §  Most of the world’s toxic waste is generated in OECD countries and exported to countries which lack environmental standards or inspection capacity §  While increased private investment in the health sector leads to the creation of sophisticated facilities and introduction of improved technology, in some countries it caters only to a minority, including foreign patients and patients from high-income groups, while poor and vulnerable groups still lack access to basic health services Quelle: http://www.unescap.org/esid/hds/issues/GlobalizationHealth.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 06.02.12

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Positive and negative effects of globalization on health §  Increased volume of cross-border travel has major implications for the spread of disease §  Infectious diseases, which could be contained as local epidemics, now have the potential to turn into global pandemics in a matter of weeks §  One example: the SARS epidemic spread across a large number of countries in East and South-East Asia and Canada, resulting in loss of lives, and unprecedented economic impact in the region

Quelle: http://www.unescap.org/esid/hds/issues/GlobalizationHealth.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 06.02.12

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Positive and negative effects of globalization on health Positive effects: §  The health sector has benefited from the ubiquitous use of the Internet and e-mail à greatly accelerated the speed of communication §  Internet information and knowledge flow, including on health issues, are more freely available, and facilitates telehealth and telemedicine

Quelle: http://www.unescap.org/esid/hds/issues/GlobalizationHealth.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 06.02.12

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Positive and negative effects of globalization on health How to minimize negative effects of globalization on health? §  Increased inter-country cooperation and strengthening of international health regulations for effective in-country surveillance, complemented by global measures, is essential in order to arrest the spread of communicable disease §  Example: -  reduction of antiretroviral drug prices -  Framework Convention on Tobacco Control §  Concerted global action, through alliances of national entities, international bodies, as well as civil society, can foster more awareness, and monitor developments and devise remedial measures §  Create national capacity to monitor impact and seek solutions + global spirit of cooperation à benefits of globalization could be reaped while minimizing its adverse effects on health Quelle: http://www.unescap.org/esid/hds/issues/GlobalizationHealth.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 06.02.12

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Links §  http://www.globalizationandhealth.com/ WHO Globalization and Health: §  http://www.who.int/trade/glossary/story044/en/index.html UNESCAP: §  http://www.unescap.org/esid/hds/issues/GlobalizationHealth.pdf Telehealth/Telemedicine: §  http://www2.kumc.edu/telemedicine/ §  http://www.americantelemed.org/files/public/abouttelemedicine/ What_Is_Telemedicine.pdf

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Globalization

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

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Globalization enlarges the ecological footprint

Gobalization

Economic growth & Production

Demand for infrastructure

Environmental pollution

Extraction of natural resources Ecological footprint

Loss of biodiversity

The goal must be to harness globalization to ensure sustainability! 12. Januar 2012

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Globalization enlarges the ecological footprint §  Globalization is encouraging more economic growth and production with no real concern about unequal or unsustainable patterns of consumption §  Globalization enlarges the ecological footprint, by promoting more economic growth as well as cultivating an almost religious faith in the value of consumption - in the value of electronic toys, cars, and fast food - all of which requires more and more natural resources, energy, and infrastructure to produce §  Push for constant economic growth under globalization à industrialization, intensive agriculture, and unsustainable natural resource extraction continue to rise §  Trade and trade agreements put downward pressure on environmental standards

Quelle: http://www.politics.ubc.ca/fileadmin/user_upload/poli_sci/Faculty/dauvergne/15_Cha14.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 01.02.12

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Globalization enlarges the ecological footprint §  Unless strict restraints are put in place humans will exhaust the globe’s natural resources, fill its sinks, and overstep the earth’s capacity to support life §  à Half the world’s forests and wetlands are already gone §  à Every day another 30 to 100 species go extinct §  The only solution to the ecological drawbacks of trade is to impose strict controls over trade

Rees and Westra 2003: “The global political economy is constructing a world of eco-apartheid and eco-violence“

Quelle: http://www.politics.ubc.ca/fileadmin/user_upload/poli_sci/Faculty/dauvergne/15_Cha14.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 01.02.12

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Globalization enlarges the ecological footprint The Environment Kuznets Curve The optimistic view §  Pollution will rise along with economic growth during the early stages of industrial development -  à governments focus on increasing industrial growth and national income rather than on pollution controls §  Yet this is a temporary phenomenon à once per capita income reaches high levels pollution begins to fall -  à citizens demand better living environments -  à firms and governments have the financial and institutional capacity to respond effectively -  à strong economies naturally tend to move away from heavy industry and toward service and information industries Quelle: http://www.politics.ubc.ca/fileadmin/user_upload/poli_sci/Faculty/dauvergne/15_Cha14.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 01.02.12

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Globalization enlarges the ecological footprint The Environment Kuznets Curve The critical view §  The Curve does not account for the integrity of the ecosystem as a whole and it ignores irreplaceable losses (such as biodiversity and species loss) §  The Curve only works for a limited range of pollutants and resources §  à It fails, for example, for CO2 emissions, which have been steadily rising alongside growth §  Possible for economies to get stuck along the curve, never reaching a point where pollution declines

Quelle: http://www.politics.ubc.ca/fileadmin/user_upload/poli_sci/Faculty/dauvergne/15_Cha14.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 01.02.12

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Globalization enlarges the ecological footprint Rebound-Effect: §  Increased technical efficiency further increases the consumption of resource inputs §  à Increase in energy and natural resource consumption

Increase in efficiency

Original energy consumption

Expected energy consumption

ReboundEffect

Actual energy consumption

Quelle: http://www.bundestag.de/bundestag/ausschuesse17/gremien/enquete/wachstum/gutachten/m17-26-13.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 20.02.12

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Links Rebound-Effect: §  http://www.eoearth.org/article/Rebound_effect German links: §  http://www.bundestag.de/bundestag/ausschuesse17/gremien/enquete/ wachstum/gutachten/m17-26-13.pdf

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Globalization

Security Policy

Migration

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Globalization creates insecurity and affects migration flows Globalization

Disparity of income distribution

Social and political instability

Violent conflict

Migration How can we reduce income inequality? 12. Januar 2012

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Globalization creates insecurity and affects migration flows §  The net effect of globalization is an increase in worldwide material welfare §  But: the benefits of globalization are not shared equally: -  1990-2000: most countries experienced an increase in income inequality, as measured by changes in the Gini index -  The wage gap between the highest 10 per cent and lowest 10 per cent earners has also tended to increase §  This rising disparity of income distribution fuel social and political instability which can result in violent conflict §  At the same time income inequalities influence migration flows from poorer to richer regions or countries

Quelle: http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/inst/download/world08.pdf, letzter Zugriff 16.02.12

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Globalization creates insecurity and affects migration flows Income inequalities Changes in Gini index between 1990 and 2005 Countries with increases in 2000 and 2005

Notes: The data presented my refer to a year close to the reference year, e.g. 2001 instead of 2000, and 2005 may refer to the most recent year available, for example 2004.

Quelle: http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/inst/download/world08.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 22.02.12

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Links Income distribution: §  http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/globalincometrends.pdf §  http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2006/wp26_2006.pdf §  http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/inst/download/world08.pdf

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Globalization

Technology

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Globalization triggers technological progress Globalization

Competitive pressure

Need for cost-cutting

Need for higher productivity

Technological progress

Facilitates work but also increases unemployment

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Globalization triggers technological progress §  Globalization increases pressure for competitiveness §  in order to stay competitive technological progress is necessary to cut costs and increase productivity §  Thus globalization leads to a progress in technology §  Besides the positive effect of facilitating work, new technologies can also increase unemployment since machines replace human labor

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Globalization

New Governance Mechanisms

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Ongoing process of globalization requires more international cooperation

Social standards Globalization

International competition

Ecological standards

Need for international agreements

Labor standards

How can we achieve that everyone benefits from these agreements?

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Further globalization requires more international cooperation §  The process of globalization increases the level of international competition §  Many countries can only keep pace with this competition by reducing labor standards as well as social and ecological standards §  à Globalization is for many people, who feel the consequences, a race to the bottom §  In order to stop this downward race the international community needs to find agreements that commit every state to maintain certain standards §  Critics of economic globalization argue that the political efforts for shaping such processes are not strong enough §  Balancing the in part extremely different interests of the world‘s poor and rich countries has been difficult from a political perspective §  At the same time a serious alternative does not exist to supranatinoal agreements and treaties that clearly support the globe‘s wea 12. Januar 2012

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Health

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Demographic Change

Health

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Improved health conditions lead to aging societies

Health

Life expectancy

Aging population

Fewer working age people need to feed more senior citizens Ă ď&#x192; How can we ensure a good lifestyle for young and old?

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Improved health conditions lead to aging societies §  The healthier people are à the longer they will live §  Better healthcare and leading a healthy lifestyle à ageing societies §  Life expectancy is rising in almost all parts of the world

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Improved health conditions lead to aging societies Life expectancy at birth (years) 2000-2011, world

Least developed countries Less developed countries More developed countries Quelle: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=67, letzter Zugriff 06.02.12

Life expectancy at birth

(years) 2011, by region

68 78

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Education

Health

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Health status as precondition for good education

Health

Ability to learn

Education

How can we make better education especially for children in developing countries possible? Ă ď&#x192; Health education programs in poor countries

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Health status as precondition for good education §  Health status of people is strongly related to their level of education §  Health status of children and adolescents impacts on their ability to learn and benefit from education §  Bad health status à reinforced via education §  Ill childen cannot go to school à education suffers §  Low educated people do not know how to protect from diseases à are more often ill

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Links WHO Health Education: §  http://www.who.int/topics/health_education/en/

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Globalization

Health

Security Policy

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Spreading diseases can affect world economy and securtiy concerns

Health

Spread of infectious diseases across borders

Disrupt world economy

Bio-terror

Security Policy

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Spreading diseases can affect world economy and securtiy concerns

Health

Spread of infectious diseases across borders

Disrupt world economy

Bio-terror

Security Policy

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Spreading diseases can disrupt the world economy §  Infectious diseases that spread around the globe can have serious effects on world economy: -  Disruption of production schedules -  Disruption of trade -  Affecting travel and tourism industry -  Disruption of discretionary spending (vacations, nonessential consumption) -  Delaying foreign direct investments -  Affecting availablitiy of labor force

Quelle: http://www.economy.com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=2368, letzter Zugriff am 07.02.12

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Spreading diseases can affect world economy and securtiy concerns One example: SARS §  Asia’s greatest economic challenge since the currency crisis of the late 1990s §  Disruption of production schedules and trade, as well as the induction of a crisis of confidence that could re-orient international investment patterns §  à persistent effects on the region’s economies §  Travel and tourism industry is bearing the initial impact §  Initial impact will be to undermine sources of growth that are related to discretionary spending—vacations and nonessential consumption §  Economy.com anticipates that intra-Asian trade will suffer as a result of SARS, though East-West trade will experience only a mild decline. Trade between Asian economies will decrease insofar as there is a falloff in spending on Asian-produced goods. The primary channel here is the disruption to discretionary spending. Quelle: http://www.economy.com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=2368, letzter Zugriff am 07.02.12

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Spreading diseases can affect world economy and securtiy concerns One example: SARS §  Also of great concern is the effect of SARS on foreign investment in the region. Over the near term, one should expect foreign investment to be delayed, but not cancelled §  Finally, the worst-case scenario is one in which SARS degrades the quality of the labor force in afflicted countries such that manufacturing activity grinds to a halt. §  Loss of 18 billion dollars in Asian economies

§  Sales in the five-star hotels in Beijing dropped by 80%

1) Quelle: http://www.wortlaut-soehne.de/wp-content/files_mf/1282122241schweinegrippe.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 20.02.12 2) Quelle:

http://www.wortlaut-soehne.de/wp-content/files_mf/1282122241schweinegrippe.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 20.02.12

Quelle: http://www.economy.com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=2368, letzter Zugriff am 07.02.12

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Spreading diseases can affect world economy and securtiy concerns

Scenario

low

medium

high

Supply

-0,2

-0,5

-0,9

Demand

-0,2

-0,3

-0,7

Total

-0,4

-0,8

-1,6

Quelle: http://www.wortlaut-soehne.de/wp-content/files_mf/1282122241schweinegrippe.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 20.02.12

Economic impact of swine flu without countermeasures in Germany (Decline in GDP growth rate)

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Spreading diseases can affect world economy and securtiy concerns §  Spread of infectious diseases (SARS, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis) and bioterror are threatening domestic security and stability §  àProtective measures in security policy: -  Improve public health systems (US, UK) -  Strengthen health systems in developing countries (Canada) §  In order to contain the spread of such diseases individual and collective actions are necessary §  International and regional organizations like the WHO play an important role -  surveillance of developments actions -  providing information 12. Januar 2012

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Links SARS §  http://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/ea56r29.pdf §  http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/health_consumer/newsletter/200305b/ consumervoice_de.pdf Economic Impacts of SARS §  http://www.adb.org/Documents/EDRC/Policy_Briefs/PB015.pdf §  http://dallasfed.org/eyi/global/0307sars.html German links: Allianz und des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung 2009: §  http://www.wortlaut-soehne.de/wp-content/files_mf/ 1282122241schweinegrippe.pdf 12. Januar 2012

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Health

Migration

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Poor health systems might create incentives to emigrate

Countries with poor health care system

Migration

Countries with better health care system

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Poor health systems might create incentives to emigrate §  Difficult to gauge the exact impact of health on migration §  Poor health system may be one of many reasons that influence someone‘s decision to migrate to another country §  People who have a disease for which they cannot be treated in their home country might also be motivated to move to a place where they can obtain treatment

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Health

New Governance

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Policy and free trade agreements must pay more attention to health issues

Education Health

Globalization Security

Policy and free trade agreements must pay more attention to health issues

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Policy and free trade agreements must pay more attention to health issues §  Although a good health has a positive impact on education and economic growth and lower the risk of conflict, health does not have a much of an impact on policy-making in supranational organizations §  Interests of industry are frequently outweighing those of public health §  The same is true for the free trade agreements of the WTO -  TRIPS agreement à regulating patents on pharmaceuticals -  GATS agreement à regulating health services §  Considering the fact that supranational and international organizations would have the power to improve public health through simple measures it is especially disappointing that these measures are not introduced because of the interests of the industries

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Policy and free trade agreements must pay more attention to health issues §  These simple measures include -  Limiting advertisement for tobacco, alcohol and unhealth foods -  Introducing food labelling and higher taxes on sugary and fatty products -  Making health-promoting exeptions to free trade regulations that make patented medicines affordable in poor countries

Olivier de Schuttner, UN special rapporteur on the right to food, 2011: “It is a problem of principle: the WTO continues to pursue the outdated goal of increasing trade for its own sake rather than encouraging more trade only insofar as it increases human wellbeing…”

Quelle: http://www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=11608&LangID=E, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Natural Resources & Biodiversity

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Climate Change

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

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Ecosystems as climate stabilizer

Absorbation and decontamination of pollutants Ecosystems

Climate Change Storage of carbon dioxide

Higher protection of our ecosystems is essential for combating climate change

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Ecosystems as climate stabilizer §  Ecosystems play an essenatial role in protecting the earth‘s climate §  They provide crucial „goods and services“, one of them is the stabilization and moderation of the earth‘s climate -  Absorbation and decontamniation of pollutants -  Storage for carbon dioxide §  Gradual destruction of ecosystems, for example through deforestation, reduce their capacity to capture and store carbon and carry out other climate protective functions §  à CO2 emissions in the atmosphere increase, which in turn increases climate change

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Ecosystems as climate stabilizer §  Protecting ecosystems in order to reduce climate change: -  Using biodiversity-based and mitigative strategies we can enhance the resilience of ecosystems and reduce the damage we do to nature -  Examples of activities that promote mitigation of or adaptation to climate change include: §

maintaining and restoring native ecosystems

§

protecting and enhancing ecosystem services

§

managing habitats for endangered species

Stavros Dimas, EU Environment Commissioner: “Healthy ecosystems are essential in any strategy for climate change adaptation.”

Quelle: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/info/pubs/docs/climate_change/en.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.02.12

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Ecosystems as climate stabilizer UNEP 2009: “It is vital to manage carbon in biological systems, to safeguard existing stores of carbon, reduce emissions and to maximise the potential of natural and agricultural areas for removing carbon from the atmosphere.“ “The priority systems are tropical forests, peatlands and agriculture. Reducing deforestation rates by 50% by 2050 and then maintaining them at this level until 2100 would avoid the direct release of up to 50 Gt C this century, which is equivalent to 12% of the emissions reductions needed to keep atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide below 450 ppm.”

European Commission 2009: “There is significant potential for cutting future emissions of greenhouse gases through maintaining healthy ecosystems and restoring degraded environments.” Quelle: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/info/pubs/docs/climate_change/en.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.02.12

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Links UNEP 2009: §  http://www.grida.no/files/publications/natural-fix/BioseqRRA_scr.pdf European Commission 2009: §  http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/info/pubs/docs/climate_change/ en.pdf Convention on Biological Diversity 2007: §  http://www.cbd.int/doc/bioday/2007/ibd-2007-booklet-01-en.pdf World Resources Institut: §  http://www.wri.org/

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Demographic Change

Health

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

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Human survival relies on natural resources and biodiversity Ecosystems Ecosystem goods and services

Purification of air and water

Health

Life expectancy

Infant mortality

Provision of food Detoxification and decomposition of wastes

Population

Control of pests and diseases

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Human survival relies on natural resources and biodiversity Ecosystems Ecosystem goods and services

Purification of air and water

Health

Life expectancy

Infant mortality

Provision of food Detoxification and decomposition of wastes

Population

Control of pests and diseases

Environmental protection will become more and more essential in order to be able to lead a healthy life 12. Januar 2012

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Human survival relies on natural resources and biodiversity §  Ecosystem goods and services are not only essential for the regulation of the earth’s climate, but are also indispensible for human health §  These services include: -  Purification of air and water -  Provision of food -  Detoxification and decomposition of wastes -  Control of pests and diseases §  Since biodiversity underlies all ecosystem service, our health and wellbeing and thus our survival relies on biodiversity

Quelle: http://www.cbd.int/2011-2020/learn/, letzter Zugriff am 06.03.12

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Human survival relies on natural resources and biodiversity §  Ecosystem disruption has consequences for our health: -  Disruption of ecosystems – whether as a result of human activities or natural phenomena – can have severe and unpredictable effects on human health -  à reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide their goods and services -  Ecosystem disruption can impact on health in a variety of ways and through complex pathways -  The types of health effects experienced are determined by the degree to which local population’s depend on ecosystem services, and factors such as poverty which affect vulnerability to changes in elements like access to food and water

Quelle: http://www.who.int/globalchange/ecosystems/en/, letzter Zugriff am 09.02.12

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Human survival relies on natural resources and biodiversity Examples Change in Ecosystems

Health Impact

Land clearing

Brings people into closer contact with wildlife that may transmit their diseases to humans and also promote the spread of disease from humans to animals Brings about the loss of plants and other organisms useful in medical research or that may contain substances used as medicines

Shrinking number of crop varities

As the number of crop varieties has shrunk in the past 50 years, with 90% of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s calories coming from a dozen crops, peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s diets have been simplified and nutritional diseases have arisen in part as a result

Loss of biodiversity

Obesity and diabetes, as well as many other emerging plagues such as mental health ailments, including depression, can all in part be connected to biodiversity loss

Quelle: http://www.cbd.int/undb/media/factsheets/en/undb-factsheet-health-en.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 09.02.12

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Human survival relies on natural resources and biodiversity Examples Change in Ecosystems

Health Impact

Deforestation

Deforestation in the tropics tends to favour snails that carry schistosomiasis and mosquitoes that carry malaria

Desertification

Higher threats of malnutrition from reduced food and water supplies More water- and food-borne diseases that result from poor hygiene and a lack of clean water Respiratory diseases caused by atmospheric dust from wind erosion and other air pollutants The spread of infectious diseases as populations migrate

Overfishing

1) Quelle:

Schistosomiasis, a parasitic disease afflicting over 200 million people annually, is carried by freshwater snails. Overfishing may reduce populations of snail predators, resulting in a greater risk of human schistosomiasis

http://www.who.int/features/qa/69/en/index.html, letzter Zugriff am 10.02.12

Quelle: http://www.cbd.int/undb/media/factsheets/en/undb-factsheet-health-en.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 09.02.12

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Human survival relies on natural resources and biodiversity UN Millenium Ecosystem Assesment 2005: “We all depend on nature and ecosystem services to provide the conditions for a decent, healthy, and secure life.” “Humans have made unprecedented changes to ecosystems in recent decades to meet growing demands for food, fresh water, fiber, and energy.” “The loss of services derived from ecosystems is a significant barrier to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals to reduce poverty, hunger, and disease.” à “Protecting and improving our future well-being requires wiser and less destructive use of natural assets.” §  Our health suffers in many ways from ecosystem disruption and loss of biodiversity §  This can lead to higher infant mortalities and shorter life expecatancies, especially in the most vulnerable countries where provision of food and clear water is low anyway Quelle: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.429.aspx.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 10.02.12

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Links Health §  http://www.cbd.int/iyb/doc/prints/factsheets/iyb-cbd-factsheet-health-en.pdf §  http://www.cbd.int/undb/media/factsheets/en/undb-factsheet-health-en.pdf §  http://chge.med.harvard.edu/programs/bio/SLbook.html §  http://www.gechh.unu.edu/index.html §  http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/About.aspx#1 §  http://www.who.int/globalchange/ecosystems/biodiversity/en/index.html Ecosystems §  http://www.who.int/globalchange/ecosystems/en/ Natural Resources §  http://www.fao.org/nr/nr-home/en/

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Natural Resources & Biodiversity

Migration

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Decreasing Biodiversity causes environmental problems that displace people Desertification Deforestation Living conditions Biodiversity

Ecosystems services Displacement Soil erosion Drought Provision of food

Migration

Purification of air and water Productive land 12. Januar 2012

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Decreasing Biodiversity causes environmental problems that displace people §  Deforestation and desertification lead to a loss of biodiversity §  Biodiversity loss contributes to the disruption of ecosystems §  When ecosystems are damaged they are hampered in providing their goods and services which are among others: -  Provision of food, fuel and fibre -  Provision of shelter and building materials -  Purification of air and water -  Stabilization and moderation of the Earth's climate -  Moderation of floods, droughts, temperature extremes and the forces of wind -  Generation and renewal of soil fertility, including nutrient cycling -  Pollination of plants, including many crops -  Control of pests and diseases Quelle: http://www.cbd.int/2011-2020/learn/, letzter Zugriff am 15.02.12

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Decreasing Biodiversity causes environmental problems that displace people §  àBiodiversity loss and natural resource scarcity can reduce the quality of people‘s living standard through many ways and might force people to migrate §  Consequences of harmed ecosystems and scarce natural resources will be severe in Sub-Sahara Africa and other developing regions §  à Migration flows to Europe and the United States will increase Environmental refugees: „People who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems, together with the associated problems of population pressures and profound poverty.“

Quelle: http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/people/faculty/myers/myers2001.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Links Myers 2001: §  http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/people/faculty/myers/myers2001.pdf International Organization for Migration: §  http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/pid/1824

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Natural Resources & Biodiversity

Security Policy

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Scarcity in natural resources triggers conflict

Oil

â&#x20AC;&#x17E;Resource Curseâ&#x20AC;&#x153;

Natural resources

Conflict

Lack of strong democratic institutions

Essential for human existence

Timber Fuel Water

Conflict

Capacity of national institutions matters

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Scarcity in natural resources triggers conflict §  When vital natural resources such as water or food or other high-value resources like oil, gas, minerals and timber get scarce à conflicts of interest are unevitable §  Increasing competition and conflict for diminishing renewable resources, such as land and water, is on the rise §  The management of natural resources is a huge challenge especially for developing countries §  à Whether conflicts become violent depends on the capacity of national institutions to resolve disputes §  While robust institutions, policies and processes can help reduce the vulnerability of populations to environmental scarcity, weak governance has the opposite effect

Quelle: http://www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters/Portals/6/ECP/4page_Scarcity_LowRes.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 10.02.12

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Scarcity in natural resources triggers conflict §  à This is being further aggravated by environmental degradation, population growth and climate change §  The mismanagement of land and natural resources is contributing to new conflicts and obstructing the peaceful resolution of existing ones §  Exploitation of high-value natural resources, including oil, gas, minerals and timber à key factor in triggering, escalating or sustaining violent conflicts

Quelle: http://www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters/Portals/6/ECP/4page_Scarcity_LowRes.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 10.02.12

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Scarcity in natural resources triggers conflict “Environmental Scarcity”: §  Situation where renewable resources – such as water, forests or productive land – are degraded or decreasing (in the sense that the resource is used faster than it is replenished) §  Environmental scarcity can also refer to the inequitable distribution of resources within a country or region §  3 drivers of environmental scarcity: -  Demand for natural resources exceeds supply -  Degradation of natural resources reduces supply -  Access to natural resources is restricted or unequal §  Their role in contributing to violent conflict can be aggravated by other influences over which local populations have very little control, such as climate change and natural hazards, socio-economic change, or a combination of the two Quelle: http://www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters/Portals/6/ECP/4page_Scarcity_LowRes.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 10.02.12

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Scarcity in natural resources triggers conflict War over water? Areas of physical and economic water scarcity

BBC News 2003: „Water shortages 'foster terrorism‘“ Quelle: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2859937.stm, letzter Zugriff am 16.02.12

Quelle: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/docs/Summary_SynthesisBook.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 13.02.12

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Scarcity in natural resources triggers conflict The Resource Curse §  Besides the problem of resource scarcity, a ‚too much‘ of natural resources can also be dangerous §  Many countries with a wealth in oil and other minerals are not able to profit from this discovery §  Among others, Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler found that natural resource wealth makes countries with weak democratic institutions more prone to civil conflict

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Links The United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventive Action: §  http://www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters/Portals/6/ECP/ 4page_Scarcity_LowRes.pdf World Development Report 2011, Background Paper: §  http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTWDR2011/Resources/ 6406082-1283882418764/WDR_Background_Paper_Evans.pdf Resource Curse §  http://gis.depaul.edu/abrownlow/Global%20Resources/Fall %202011/2011%20Readings/Collier%20and%20Hoeffler,%20Resource %20rent%20and%20conflict.pdf §  http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/ross/whatdoweknow.pdf Water §  http://worldwater.org/conflict/index.html 12. Januar 2012

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Natural Resources & Biodiversity

Technology

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Natural resource scarcity leads to an increase in the use of green technologies Natural Resources Natural resource price

Technological progress/ green technology

Use of renewable resources

Use of non-renewable resources

Rebound-Effect 12. Januar 2012

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Natural resource scarcity leads to an increase in the use of green technologies §  The demand for natural resources increases through globalization and growing population §  Therefore prices for non-renewable ressources are rising §  à growing economic incentive to use renewable ressources §  Thus there will be an increase in technological progress in the direction of green technology §  By this the use of non-renewable ressources is expected to decrease, but you have to consider the Rebound-effect Rebound-effect: Despite of increases in efficiancy, the actual use of energy consumption will increase

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Natural resource scarcity leads to an increase in the use of green technologies The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix World commercial energy use

Contribution to total energy growth

Quelle: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/2030_energy_outlook_booklet.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 01.03.12

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Natural resource scarcity leads to an increase in the use of green technologies Average IEA crude oil import price

Without appropriate policies the oil price will rise constantly Quelle: World Energy Outlook 2011

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Natural resource scarcity leads to an increase in the use of green technologies World primary energy demand by scenario

The demand for energy is unstoppable Ă ď&#x192; need for sustainalbe technologies Quelle: World Energy Outlook 2011

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Links International Energy Outlook 2011 §  http://205.254.135.24/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484%282011%29.pdf World Energy Outlook 2011 §  http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/fulltext/6111241e.pdf? expires=1331218968&id=id&accname=ocid53026214&checksum=A7F6B C3F0C028EAD20E575492903B4A6 Presentation on World Energy Outlook 2011 §  http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2011/homepage/ WEO2011_Press_Launch_London.pdf

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Natural Resources & Biodiversity

New Governance

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Decreasing biodiversity and natural resources requires more international cooperation

Climate Change Mortality Natural Resources and Biodiversity

Health Migration Conflicts

Global strategy to manage the earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s resources and species

Need for green techonolgies

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Decreasing biodiversity and natural resources requires more international cooperation §  The loss of biodiversity and natural resource depletion have far reaching consequences for our planet §  They affect the earth‘s climate, human health, water and food supply and risk of conflict §  The consequences affect all of us, but poor people suffer most §  In order to manage the challenges imposed by biodiversity loss and natural resource depletion we need new governance mechanisms

UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: “With appropriate actions it is possible to reverse the degradation of many ecosystem services over the next 50 years, but the changes in policy and practice required are substantial and not currently underway.”

Quelle: http://www.who.int/globalchange/ecosystems/en/ letzter Zugriff am 16.02.12

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Links Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: §  http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.429.aspx.pdf World Resource Institute: §  http://www.wri.org/governance

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Migration

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Climate Change

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

Migration

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Migration to certain areas might increase climate change and reduce natural resources and biodiversity Migration

Population density in destination country

In agriculture dependent countries Expansion of cropland

Forest area

Storage of CO2

Exploitation of resources Deforestation Soil erosion Biodiverstiy & Natural Resources Climate Change

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Migration to certain areas might increase climate change and reduce natural resources and biodiversity §  Migration increases population density in destination countries §  In economies which mainly depend on agriculture this causes: -  à expansion of cropland -  à reduction of forest areas -  à reducing CO2 storage §  As a consequence the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increases §  à fueling climate change and global warming §  At the same time migration has a strong impact on biodiversity and natural resources which again enforces climate change -  conversion of new land for settlement -  increased demand for water -  increased fuelwood consumption -  degraded vegetation, which has been cut for firewood and charcoal Quelle: http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/communityaction/people/phe/Migration/WWFBinaryitem6127.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 24.02.12

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Migration to certain areas might increase climate change and reduce natural resources and biodiversity Example: US Border to Mexico â&#x20AC;&#x153;The border runs for 800 miles through the Chihuahuan Desert, where the fragile environment is damaged by a web of illegal vehicle roads and foot trails. Plants are trampled and killed, local populations of animals are displaced, fragile desert soils erode, invasive weed species that have been inadvertently brought in by cars or clothing take hold in newly disturbed soils, fire patterns are disrupted and game animals are poached. Garbage dumps with plastic water jugs, old food cans and wrappers, clothes and pharmaceutical waste (illegal crossers often take drugs to help maintain their stamina) are hazardous to the general public, wildlife and the environment. Rare natural springs are contaminated by bathing, drinking and the dumping of human waste, which puts endangered fish species further at risk. In the Sonoran Desert in Arizona, there are threats to the endangered jaguar and Sonoran pronghorn.â&#x20AC;? Quelle: http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/communityaction/people/phe/Migration/WWFBinaryitem6127.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 24.02.12

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Demographic Change

Migration

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Migration changes demographic patterns

Women Men Old people

Changes in demographic patterns in destination and origin countries

Young people Population in destionation country Migration

Population in origin country

How to manage migration in order to meet the need of demographic change? 12. Januar 2012

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Migration changes demographic patterns §  Large migration flows do not only change the size of the population in destination and origin countries §  High numbers of working age immigrants can counteract ageing societies §  Moreover the number of young and old people and male and female migrants can change demographic patterns

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Migration changes demographic patterns

Median age of international migrants and total population 2010 (years)

Quelle: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/CD_MS_2010/CD-ROM%20DOCUMENTATION_UN_Mig_Stocks_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 23.02.12

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Migration changes demographic patterns

Age distribution of international migrants by developent groups 2010 (percentages)

Quelle: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/CD_MS_2010/CD-ROM%20DOCUMENTATION_UN_Mig_Stocks_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 23.02.12

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Migration changes demographic patterns

Age distribution of international migrants and the total population 2010 (percentages)

Quelle: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/CD_MS_2010/CD-ROM%20DOCUMENTATION_UN_Mig_Stocks_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 23.02.12

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Migration changes demographic patterns

Female international migrants per 100 mal international migrants 2010

Quelle: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/CD_MS_2010/CD-ROM%20DOCUMENTATION_UN_Mig_Stocks_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 23.02.12

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Globalization

Migration

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Migration can lead to better economic performanceâ&#x20AC;Ś

Origin country Unemployment

Economic performance /welfare

Destination country Migration

Shortage of labor

Economic performance /welfare

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…and to growing economic polarization

Origin country Unemployment

Economic performance /welfare

Destination country Brain Drain

Shortage of labor

Economic performance /welfare

How can we prevent growing economic polarization?

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Migration can lead to better economic performance and to growing economic polarization §  The impact of migration on globalization is double-edged §  If people leave a country with a high rate of unemployment and move to a country with a shortage of labor §  à migration improves economic performance and economic welfare in both economies §  On the other hand, a brain drain reduces economic growth in the country of emigration §  à economic polarization grows fastest when qualified people leave underdeveloped countries and move to developed ones

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Migration can lead to better economic performance and to growing economic polarization Signifiant talent gaps expected by 2020 and beyond In countries with no talent shortage trend, employability is the challenge

Quelle: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/PS_WEF_GlobalTalentRisk_Report_2011.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 08.03.12

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Migration can lead to better economic performance and to growing economic polarization Brain drain as a risk for home countries

Quelle: http://www.bicc.de/uploads/pdf/publications/briefs/brief36/brief36.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 24.02.12

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Health

Migration

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Health of Migrants Spread of diseases Migration

Stressful journey

Health

Destination country Language barriers Unaffordable costs Fear of illegal immigrants to be deported

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Health of Migrants §  Migrants often have a very stressful journey injurious to their health -  when they cross the Mediterranean by boat -  When hide in trucks for days without water §  In the country of arrival -  they often cannot afford healthcare -  if illegal immigrants à they are afraid to seek care -  Language barrier makes it hard for them to receive any form of mental healthcare §  Moreover population movements might increase the spread of diseases worldwide

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Links WHO 2007: Health of Migrants: §  http://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/EB122/B122_11-en.pdf WHO Migrant Health: §  http://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/health_of_migrants/en/ International Organization for Migration: §  http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/activities/by-theme/migration-health

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Security Policy

Migration

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Failure of integration of immigrants threatens public security Language Culture

Migration

Integration of immigrants

Public security

Failure

social political

Religion

â&#x20AC;Ś

economic

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Failure of integration of immigrants threatens public security §  Social, political and economic integration is an essential aspect of international migration §  There are many barriers to successful integration of immigrants such as different language, culture and religion §  But since immigrants as well as locals benefit from successful integration, the success of integration depends on efforts from both sides §  If it fails à immigrants may disregard the laws of the destination country §  à which threatens public security §  In addition, if people leave their country in large numbers due to civil war or political or religous persecution à they could potentially relocate these conflicts abroad

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New Governance

Migration

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International migration requires cooperation between states at all levels Africa & Middle East

Migration

Europe & United States

Global issue

We need new forms of global governance systems for international migration

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International migration requires cooperation between states at all levels §  Migration streams from Africa and the Middle East to Europe and the United States demand new approaches to joint European-American conflict management §  Such efforts must include a mix of military and security measures, as well as measures to build working civil societies §  Since migration is a transnational issue it is necessary to implement new forms of global governance systems for international migration Global Commission on International Migration 2005: The governance of international migration should be enhanced by improved coherence and strengthened capacity at the national level; greater consultation and cooperation between states at the regional level, and more effective dialogue and cooperation among governments and between international organizations at the global level.

Quelle: http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/site/myjahiasite/shared/shared/mainsite/policy_and_research/gcim/GCIM_Report_Complete.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 07.03.12

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Links Global Commission on International Migration 2005: §  http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/site/myjahiasite/shared/shared/mainsite/ policy_and_research/gcim/GCIM_Report_Complete.pdf World Migration Report 2011: §  http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/free/WMR2011_English.pdf

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Security Policy

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Climate Change

Natural Resources & Biodiversity

Security Policy

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Violent Conflicts harm nature and boost Climate Change Traveling soldiers Military equipment Burning buildings

Violent conflicts/ wars

Military airplanes

Damage of ozone layer

CO2 emissions Climate Change

Flora & fauna Bombs & fire

Soil contamination

Biodiversity & Natural Resources

Air pollution 12. Januar 2012

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Violent Conflicts harm nature and boost Climate Change Traveling soldiers Military equipment Burning buildings

Violent conflicts/ wars

Military airplanes

Damage of ozone layer

CO2 emissions Climate Change

Flora & fauna Bombs & fire

Soil contamination

Biodiversity & Natural Resources

Air pollution 12. Januar 2012

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Violent Conflicts harm nature and boost Climate Change §  Violent conflicts have negative consequences for nature and the climate: -  Traveling soldiers and military equpiment release CO2 -  Military airplanes damage the ozone layer -  Burning buildings or infrastructure produce CO2 and cause soil contamination -  Bombs and fire kill flora and fauna §  à Violent conflicts increase global anthropogenig emissions of greenhouse gasses §  à Boosting global warming and harming ecosystems

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Links Lenntech: Water Treatment Solutions §  http://www.lenntech.com/environmental-effects-war.htm

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Demographic Change

Health

Security Policy

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Conflicts reduce population by causing direct deaths and worsen state of health People killed Violent conflicts/ terrorist attacks

Population

Long-term effects

Health

Destruction of health services Destruction of infrastructure for clean water Diseases Malnutrition Radioactivity and toxic smoke 12. Januar 2012

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Conflicts reduce population by causing direct deaths and worsen state of health People killed Violent conflicts/ terrorist attacks

Population

Long-term effects

Health

Destruction of health services Destruction of infrastructure for clean water Diseases Malnutrition Radioactivity and toxic smoke 12. Januar 2012

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Conflicts reduce population by causing direct deaths and worsen state of health §  Wars have a strong influence on the size and structure of a population §  In armed conflicts or terrorist attacks, deaths are not only caused directly by bombs and guns, but also indirectly: -  Destrcution of healthcare services -  Destruction of infrastructure for clean water §  à negative impacts on people‘s health à increase mortality §  Other long-term effects: -  Diseases and deaths from malnutrition -  Higher infant mortality due to underweight newborns -  Proliferation of cancers due to higher radioactivity and toxic smoke

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Links Anke Hoeffler, 2003: Measuring the Costs of Conflict: §  http://www.conflictrecovery.org/bin/2003_Hoeffler_ReynalMeasuring_the_Costs_of_Conflict.pdf

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Globalization

Security Policy

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Violent Conflicts can have severe economic consequences Within affected countries

Destruction of factories Death or injury of workers

Violent conflicts/ wars

Number of production facilities and their outputs

GDP

Stock prices Other countries Prices for energy and fuel 12. Januar 2012

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Violent Conflicts can have severe economic consequences §  Wars and other violent conflicts have severe economic consequences §  Within affected countries, the destruction of factories and death or injury of workers reduce the number of production facilities and their output à and subsequently the GDP §  If these countries have no access to the funds needed for reconstruction à the economic gap between them and the rest of the world will rise §  Furthermore, in times of globalization, the economic consequences of violent conflicts affect other countries too – for example through: -  rising prices for energy and fuel -  declining stock prices Anke Hoeffler 2003: „A civil war of 5 years reduces the average annual growth rate by more than 2%“

Quelle: http://www.conflictrecovery.org/bin/2003_Hoeffler_Reynal-Measuring_the_Costs_of_Conflict.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 29.02.12

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Links Anke Hoeffler, 2003. „Measuring the Costs of Conflict“: §  http://www.conflictrecovery.org/bin/2003_Hoeffler_ReynalMeasuring_the_Costs_of_Conflict.pdf

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Security Policy

Migration

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Wars, conflicts and terrorism increase emigration

Persecution Refugees/ Displaced people

Violent Conflict/ War

Migration

Threats to physical wellbeing

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Wars, conflicts and terrorism increase emigration §  During violent conflicts, people often leave their home on flight from persecution and threats to their physical wellbeing §  Any rise in violent conflict or terrorist attacks thus increases emigration

UNHCR Global Trends 2010: “By end 2010, there were 43.7 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, the highest number in 15 years. Of these, 15.4 million were refugees: 10.55 million under UNHCR’s mandate and 4.82 million Palestinian refugees registered with UNRWA. The overall figure also includes 837,500 asylum-seekers and 27.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).“

Quelle: http://www.unhcr.de/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/06_service/zahlen_und_statistik/UNHCR_GLOBAL_TRENDS_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 29.02.12

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Wars, conflicts and terrorism increase emigration

Global forced displacement 2001-2010 (end-year) In millions

Quelle: http://www.unhcr.de/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/06_service/zahlen_und_statistik/UNHCR_GLOBAL_TRENDS_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 29.02.12

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Wars, conflicts and terrorism increase emigration

Major refugee hosting countries end-2010

Quelle: http://www.unhcr.de/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/06_service/zahlen_und_statistik/UNHCR_GLOBAL_TRENDS_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 29.02.12

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Wars, conflicts and terrorism increase emigration Main source countries of refugees end-2010

Quelle: http://www.unhcr.de/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/06_service/zahlen_und_statistik/UNHCR_GLOBAL_TRENDS_2010.pdf, letzter Zugriff am 29.02.12

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Links UNHCR Global Trends 2010: §  http://www.unhcr.de/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/06_service/ zahlen_und_statistik/UNHCR_GLOBAL_TRENDS_2010.pdf

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New Governance

Security Policy

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Combating global terrorism requires global cooperation

International networks

Global terrorist activities

Global cooperation to form a common strategy in order to successfully address terrorism

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Combating global terrorism requires global cooperation §  More and more terrorism is shaped by international networks such as AlQaeda that promote global terrorist activities §  Globalization has enlarged the operation range of terrorist organizations §  No single country and not even a group of countries is able to evert the dangers stemming from terrorism §  To successfully address the threat of terrorism, the entire global community need to work together to form a common strategy

The cross-border exchange of security-relevant information between Europe‘s nation states and the establishment of a common data pool are initial efforts in the establishment of an effective structure for fighting international terrorism.

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The End 