Climate & Energy
Efficiency first
TECHNOLOGY
POLICY
FINANCE
INTERVIEW
An efficient transition through electrification
Old directives, new directions
More bang for your buck
IEA on the importance of the next decade
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A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH ENERGY
Net-zero is made easier by the efficient use of energy
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy SPRING / SUMMER 2022
PUBLISHER FORESIGHT Media Group
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EDITOR David Weston david@foresightdk.com
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The energy transition is about more than switching power carriers. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable forms of energy generation is perhaps the most significant change the world will make in its attempts to avoid the catastrophic effects of climate change. Still, it is not as simple as a straight swap. It requires a complete overhaul of how we live and interact with our world. This is where energy efficiency and the efficient use of energy comes in. For a successful transition, we need to make sure the energy we use is applied in a smarter, greener way. The current energy crisis which has seen household bills skyrocket makes the need for energy efficiency even more relevant. As we find in these pages, electrification alone will somewhat reduce energy demand. But bringing demand and consumption down further, and using electricity in more efficient ways, makes the goal of the energy transition more attainable. What was not predicted when we first started work on this issue was a second crisis: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing geopolitical fallout. Europe’s lawmakers have turbocharged efforts to cut the region’s dependence on Russian oil and gas, which is putting greater focus on clean energy and energy efficiency in buildings. But there are other ways more efficient use of energy can help, beyond the triple glazing and roof insulation. New transport business models can ensure we maximise the use of electric vehicles; different technologies or materials can see industry reduce its heavy emissions load; while more efficient electrolysers may help with green hydrogen’s inherent problems. The combination of today’s crises—energy prices, the war in Ukraine and energy security, plus climate change—all off the back of two years of a global pandemic, means the energy efficiency, particularly in buildings, is experiencing a renaissance in the collective consciousness. The story that emerges in our 14th print issue of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy is that energy efficiency must go hand in hand with a switch to renewables for the energy transition to succeed. The point is made repeatedly in these pages but Stephen Richardson from the World Green Building Council sums it up best: “This is probably the most high-profile that building energy consumption’s ever been on the political spectrum, going back to the oil shocks of the 1970s,” he says. “If energy efficiency is not addressed as part of the response, it’s a real missed opportunity.” Energy efficiency can no longer be the forgotten fuel of the energy transition it once was.
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David Weston EDITOR
CONTENT
POLICY
FINANCE
TRANSPORT
TECHNOLOGY
A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE: THE EU’S FORGOTTEN MANTRA
THE EFFICIENCY PARADOX
TRANSPORT’S NEW DIRECTION
AN EFFICIENT TRANSITION
Change attitudes over building renovation with the right combination of incentives
Increasing the use of electric vehicles may require new ways of working
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Electrification will automatically bring down consumption, but it also requires a new relationship with energy
Energy Efficiency First never enjoyed its heyday but there are new plans to bring it front and centre PAGE 8
EU PRESSES AHEAD WITH POLICY RENOVATION
Updating two directives to strengthen energy efficiency as the world battles back from the pandemic PAGE 20
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HOW TO MAXIMISE ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENTS
Getting bang for your buck in building upgrades to make sure every penny counts PAGE 40
INTERVIEW
RENEWABLES DOUBLE UP ON LAND USE TO MAXIMISE RESOURCES
New model sees renewables generation and crops exist side-by-side PAGE 50
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS HERE TO STAY
The IEA’s Brian Motherway speaks to FORESIGHT on why efficiency is an essential part of the energy transition
HEAVY INDUSTRY PLANS TO TREAD LIGHTLY
Major emitters tackle inefficiencies through new technologies and redesigned processes PAGE 54
HYDROGEN SECTOR TARGETS PRODUCTION BOOST
More efficient electrolysers strengthen the business case of green hydrogen PAGE 62
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The Big Picture It is not all about renovation. For new buildings, using the local resources helps to keep the emissions down. Sometimes old methods are still the best. This two-story school in rural Bangladesh was built by local workers using local, sustainable materials with support from Germany-based architects Anna Heringer and Eike Roswag, and German-Bangladeshi development partnership programme Shanti. As well as providing services to local children, the construction of the school also afforded training for local tradespeople PHOTO Kurt Hoerbst
POLICY The European Union’s “Energy Efficiency First Principle” was designed to maximise the potential of energy sources and increase investor appetite but it has struggled to jump from principle to practice. But new rules and a shift in geopolitics look set to propel the efficiency maxim to top billing
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he saying: “The best energy is the energy we don’t use”—or some variation—often makes an appearance when the EU’s top energy and climate officials give speeches explaining how the bloc intends to slash emissions to a net-zero level by 2050. Energy efficiency measures and making sure that every electron, molecule and drop of combustible fluid is used shrewdly is part of a wider policy jigsaw that also includes decarbonising power systems with renewable energy. This is why the EU institutions wrote the Energy Efficiency First Principle into law in 2018—as part of the rules governing the energy union—marking the first attempt to give energy savings measures their time in the spotlight. Its ultimate goal is the removal of any market or regulatory barriers that prevent demand-side resources from competing with supplyside equivalents on an equal footing. Building renovations should share the same stage with wind energy, for instance. However, the all-important Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) (page 20), which sets energy consumption reduction targets and savings benchmarks for end8
use energy, did not include any obligation for governments to take the principle into account. This lack of binding legal pressure has undermined other mentions of the principle in other policy packages such as the EU’s Strategy for Energy System Integration and the Renovation Wave strategy. It has remained aspirational rather than obligational. Project developers have therefore only taken it into account in a limited way and, although successful examples exist, they are more the exception than the rule.
WASTED OPPORTUNITIES Energy experts are mostly in agreement that the EU has taken a step forward in prioritising energy efficiency measures but that there is still substantial untapped potential waiting to be unlocked by more ambitious policies. Arianna Vitali, from the Coalition for Energy Savings, says it is positive that energy efficiency is now being acknowledged and considered in lawmaking, compared to not that long ago when it was not even on the agenda. However, she warns that although the energy effiFORESIGHT
Brought to the fore Energy efficiency policies are becoming more widely adopted as a weapon against climate change
TEXT Sam Morgan ILLUSTRATION Hvass&Hannibal and Liana Mihailova PHOTO Sasha Plescho
A matter of principle: the EU’s forgotten mantra
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TECHNOLOGY The energy transition is not simply a matter of replacing fossil fuels with zero-carbon alternatives. It will also be marked by a radical change in our relationship with energy and the spread of technologies like heat pumps and electric vehicles that can yield significant efficiency gains even before traditional energy savings measures come into play. Electrification will reduce energy demand globally
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uring the industrial revolution in 18th century Britain, and elsewhere in Europe and the United States the following century, coal was combusted to turn steam engines providing power to factories. As the 19th century ended, internal combustion engine automobiles fuelled by petrol began to take the place of horsepowered carriages. Now another revolution is at hand. Emissions from fossil fuels need to be slashed to practically zero to meet international commitments laid down in the Paris Agreement to limit the rise in global temperatures to “well below” 20C and avert the worst effects of climate change. This means not only that fossil fuels will need to be replaced by renewable energy but also entails a change in how energy is converted and used. Nick Eyre of the University of Oxford says the transformation underway can be seen as a move from the energy system introduced with the industrial revolution in which heat from fossil fuels provides work into one in which work from renewable energy, in the form of electricity, also provides heat. In this new world, steam and gas turbines will 14
become increasingly rare and be replaced with technologies like heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs). With the energy transition, “You don’t just change the input fuels,” says Eyre. “The whole set of technologies changes.” The combustion of fuels to produce power is accompanied by significant heat losses. The conversion of power to heat is more efficient and the advent of an energy system relying heavily on electricity, and particularly the electrification of heating and transport, also brings with it sizeable energy savings. EVs typically require less than one-third the energy of internal combustion engine vehicles and heat pumps less than one-third of boilers. Eyre calculates that final energy demand could be reduced up to 40% by switching to renewable energy sources like wind, solar photovoltaics and hydroelectric power where it is feasible and using green hydrogen when direct electrification is not an option. Demand reduction in buildings and transport can exceed 50%, Eyre estimates. “Not only is energy efficiency helpful for the [energy] transition, but the transition is also helpful for energy efficiency,” says Eyre. FORESIGHT
Efficient process Electrification means energy will be used more efficiently, reducing demand as a result
TEXT Heather O'Brian ILLUSTRATION Hvass&Hannibal and Liana Mihailova
An efficient transition
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TECHNOLOGY
Global final energy use by sector and fuel Electrification will reduce energy demand across all major sectors
EJ/year 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40
SOURCE: NICK EYRE
20 0 Industry
Buildings
Transport
CURRENT Fuels
Industry
Buildings
Transport
POST-TRANSITION Electricity
just 43 TWh to 1274 TWh as decarbonisation efforts in the two sectors get underway in earnest. Aside from shipping and aviation, green hydrogen is widely expected to be an essential element in the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate industries like steel and cement manufacturing (page 62) and as a replacement for fossil fuels that are used as feedstocks. There may also be a supporting role for using green hydrogen in power plants to replace flexible, gas-powered plants, despite the inefficiency of using electricity to produce hydrogen that is once again transformed into electricity.
EMISSIONS GAINS Although decarbonisation will require a move towards 100% renewable electricity, one of the implications of the efficiency gains of electrification is that emissions can often be reduced even when the share of fossil fuels on the grid remains relatively high. A bonus of electrification is that it ceases burning FORESIGHT
fuels at the point of use, getting rid of tailpipe emissions from cars that contribute to urban pollution and improving air quality in buildings. T&E found that, on average, electric cars in Europe generate almost three times less CO2 than the equivalent petrol or diesel car over their lifecycle, including the embedded emissions from the energy-intensive production of batteries. Even in a worst-case scenario—an electric car with a battery produced in China and driven in Poland— CO2 emissions are still 22% less than for a diesel car and 28% less than petrol. On the other hand, an electric car with a battery produced in Sweden and driven in that country can emit 80% less CO2 than diesel and 81% less than petrol. Meanwhile, in a 2020 analysis, the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) concluded that replacing gas boilers with air source heat pumps would result in a reduction in CO2 emissions over the 15-year lifetime of the heat pump in 46 out of the 48 US contiguous states, 17
TECHNOLOGY
Power switch Switching to electricpowered vehicles will reduce total energy demand
or about 99% of US households. The exceptions were Wyoming and Utah, where electricity grids are still highly reliant on coal. The carbon intensity of power grids on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean has been falling and is set to decline further as solar PV and wind power continue to expand their share of the electricity mix. Germany, the UK, the US, and Canada are among the many countries that have committed to emissions-free electricity by 2035.
EVS RACE AHEAD As battery prices come down sharply and the range of EVs improves, the electrification of cars is already 18
moving full speed ahead. Sales of electric cars reached 6.6 million in 2021, representing 9% of the global car market and more than doubling from the year earlier, data from the IEA shows. The well-to-wheel efficiency of electric cars now stands at about 77%, according to data from T&E, compared to about 33% for hydrogen fuel cell cars. On the other hand, figures from the US Department of Energy (DOE) indicate that only 12-30% of the petrol put into a car moves it down the road, depending on the drive cycle. Car manufacturers are investing heavily in EVs, as lawmakers increasingly promote their use. The European Commission has proposed that all news cars be FORESIGHT
POLICY Two of the European Union’s (EU) main energy laws are in the process of being updated. Despite the fundamental role they play in decarbonisation efforts, the rules have so far failed to live up to climate expectations. This is set to change
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he EU’s topline climate targets of a 55% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2050 rely heavily on accelerated renewable energy deployment, significant— if not total—fossil fuel cuts and a substantially more efficient energy system. Talks aimed at ratcheting up sector-specific targets, rewriting emission standards and funnelling more money towards green projects are ongoing, all against a backdrop of unpredictable geopolitical events that are moving markets and changing the game. In 2021, the European Commission (EC) published its plan— known as the “Fit-for-55” package—to drag Europe’s economy onto a trajectory that is consistent with its set-in-stone climate neutrality goal. Under the EC’s existing regime, renewable sources have to reach 32% of the total energy mix by 2030. This was increased to 40% by the Fit for 55 plan. Its energy efficiency directive (EED) counterpart aims for arguably even more ambitious improvements. The current overall benchmark of a 32.5% reduction in final energy consumption is ramped up to 36%, 20
while annual energy savings requirements were nearly doubled from 0.8% to 1.5%. According to the updated Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD)—designed to support the energy efficiency of Europe’s buildings stock— governments will identify which commercial, public and residential structures are among the least efficient 15% of the building stock. These will then be classified as ‘G’ class on a rating scale that goes all the way up to ‘A’—which will be reserved solely for buildings that emit no emissions whatsoever during their operation phase. Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) will then be applied to that 15%. G-class commercial and public buildings would have to be renovated up to F-class by 2027 and E-class by 2030, if the Commission’s plan is adopted as it stands. Residential buildings would have longer— by 2030 and 2033, respectively—for the two lowest classes. The revised EPBD will be the main lever for the EU’s ongoing Renovation Wave policy, which aims to FORESIGHT
Building works Updated EU directives are aiming to increase the efficiency of Europe's building stock
TEXT Sam Morgan PHOTO Simone Hutsch & Sasha Plescho
EU presses ahead with policy renovation
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POLICY
boost refurbishment rates above their current annual 1% and upgrade 35 million buildings by 2030.
EFFICIENCY FIGHT Niels Fuglsang, a Danish socialist member of the European Parliament, is tasked with crafting the institution’s proposal for the EED review. He is not pulling any punches when it comes to ambition. His report says the overall target should be 43% rather than 36%, while his vision for annual savings is 2% rather than 1.5%. Fuglsang also insists that those requirements be legally binding on national governments. “We need to do more to live up to the EU’s Climate Law; it is cost-efficient, according to the cost analysis that I have built this on and we need to become independent of Russian gas and oil,” the MEP explains. He is likely to find plenty of support in Parliament for his bumped-up targets, as lawmakers 22
from across the political spectrum have already publicly backed energy-saving policies as a weapon against Russian fossil fuel dependence. Arianna Vitali of the Coalition for Energy Savings, an NGO, says discussing higher targets is no longer taboo. “There's more consciousness now about how important energy savings are and why it should be prioritised,” she says. According to member state diplomats from some of the EU’s biggest players, their governments are unlikely to push back too hard on the target increases but will argue that their national contributions to the binding EU-wide goal remain indicative only. The Parliament too might struggle to agree on a negotiating position that includes legally binding benchmarks, despite Fuglsang’s efforts, as the large centre-right European Peoples’ Party (EPP) has submitted amendments that insist countries must be granted flexibility. FORESIGHT
Main culprits The updated EPBD will identify which commercial, public and residential buildings are among the EU's least efficient
FINANCE Reducing the amount of energy we use is a key part of cutting emissions by 2050, but asking people to be more frugal could be challenging in a society that prizes consumption. Getting incentives right can shift attitudes
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s of 2022, thermostats have become instruments of war. After Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered tanks into Ukraine, Josep Borrell, head of foreign policy at the European Union (EU) said European citizens should turn down their heating to cut Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. In the war on climate change, using less energy is also key. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says energy efficiency represents “a critical contribution” to its Net Zero by 2050 road map to meet the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2ºC. Unless demand is reduced through electrification, behavioural changes and efficiency, global energy consumption could be 83 petawatt-hours a year higher in 2050 than in 2020, or 90% above the amount needed to cut net emissions to zero, the IEA says. EU lawmakers recognise the importance of efficiency and last year tabled a revision of the bloc’s energy directive, aiming to bring in a legally binding 36% cut in final consumption by 2030. This target 26
could be revised further following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the surface, encouraging energy efficiency should not be hard. Businesses and consumers alike benefit from using less energy because they pay lower bills. Lower energy costs are not the only plus. More than 220 million buildings, representing around 85% of Europe’s building stock, were built before 2001 and most will still be standing by 2050. “[These buildings are] unprepared for the ongoing and future changes in our climate, such as increasing temperatures and extreme weather events,” says the EU. Buildings account for around 36% of the region's energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, so improving their efficiency would deliver a triple benefit of lower costs, greater climate resilience and counteract global warming. People should hardly need encouragement to improve the energy efficiency of their homes and workplaces. In practice, however, things are not so easy. FORESIGHT
Get your house in order Businesses and households need to improve the efficiency of the exisiting building stock
TEXT Jason Deign ILLUSTRATION Hvass&Hannibal and Liana Mihailova PHOTO Frederico Beccari & Tomas Marek
The efficiency paradox
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TRANSPORT Cutting emissions from road transportation is a major part of the energy transition. Electrification promises to transform the way we move people and things around
Transport’s new direction
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Yet, while Norway could be lauded for its early exit from fossil-fuel car sales, there is a long road left to go everywhere else. The global transportation sector produced around 7.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2020, according to German market and consumer data company Statista. Passenger cars accounted for 41% of the total. Medium and heavy trucks were another 22%, way ahead of shipping (11%) or aviation (8%). Wiping out road transportation’s colossal carbon footprint is not easy. Like other industries born out of an abundance of fossil fuels, road transportation is not set up for efficiency.
OFF TRACK The average fuel consumption of cars and vans has been falling over the last two decades, but it dropped by less than 1% between 2017 and 2019. The latest tracking report on the sector from the International Energy Agency (IEA), published in November 2021, says it is not on track to meet emissions targets. It is unclear to what extent the high petrol and diesel prices seen in recent months in Europe will have an impact on this. People drive because they want or need to; having to pay more for fuel may annoy them but is unlikely to stop them. FORESIGHT
Rapid descent Sales of internal combustion engine vehicles are falling rapidly in Norway, ahead of the Government's planned phase-out date
TEXT Jason Deign PHOTO Daniel Schwarz & Volvo
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y the time you read these words, it is likely that climate change will have critically endangered a once-common inhabitant of Norway’s rural and urban landscapes. Unlike global warming victims such as the golden toad or Brable Cay melomys, however, few naturalists will mourn the passing of the internal combustion engine (ICE) car in Norway, even though its demise came sooner than expected. Norway had set a date of 2025 to phase out new fossil-fuel car sales, but as of March 2022, ICE and non-rechargeable hybrid vehicles had dropped to just 8% of new vehicle sales. Spurred by generous tax breaks, growing demand for electric vehicles in Norway has led analysts to predict ICE car sales would effectively fall to zero in the first half of 2022, more than two years ahead of schedule. The Norwegian milestone is a world first. It is important because other than having supportive policies the country is not an obvious candidate for full vehicle electrification. A trip into the Arctic Circle on Norway’s 3088-kilometre E6 highway is hardly for those that suffer from electric vehicle range anxiety. Furthermore, as the world’s thirteenth-largest oil producer, Norway has no great need to go electric just yet.
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FINANCE Sudden spikes in the cost of energy have pushed energy efficiency higher up the public and political agenda. Building renovations can be costly, but there could be ways of making energy efficiency itself more efficient
How to maximise energy efficiency investments
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sense to have it,” says Jan Rosenow at the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), an advisory body. Other measures that are often overlooked include draught-proofing. “Someone showed me a tripleglazed window that had a gap between the window and the brickwork surrounding it. Of course, that’s completely pointless. Draught proofing is not something that’s particularly sexy but it’s really costeffective and you get your money back very quickly,” Rosenow says.
COMFORTABLE LIVING Many heat systems are not optimised to run at the correct temperature. Lowering this temperature improves the efficiency of the system by 5-10%, BPIE calculated. It is a low-tech intervention that can deliver quite a sizeable energy saving at no cost, Rosenow adds. It does depend on the size of the radiators in the home, since small ones may not warm up sufficiently but many people have oversized radiators for their property, he says. Cavity wall insulation is also effective, though many countries do not have buildings with this type of construction, so would need to look at solid wall FORESIGHT
TEXT Catherine Early PHOTO Laura Stamer
E
nvironmental and fuel poverty campaigners have long pushed for a big push on energy efficiency to reduce emissions and guard against high costs. However, rates for upgrades of the existing housing stock remain stubbornly low. The cost of some measures for hardto-treat homes can be a key barrier. This begs the question of whether money could be better spent on technological solutions, or if energy efficiency itself could be made more efficient? Which energy efficiency measures give the most “bang for the buck” varies according to the type of property and the climate of its location. However, certain measures are always cited as a sensible investments, such as loft insulation. Deep insulation (20 centimetres) installed in attics of homes across EU member states could save 254 terawatt-hours (TWh) of heat consumption a year, equivalent to 14% of the demand for home heating in the bloc in 2020, according to the Buildings Performance Institute Europe (BPIE). “Loft insulation pays back quickly, in most cases, it’s fairly easy to install— it’s one of those measures that there shouldn’t be any buildings without any, because it always makes
Old-school Retrofit Upgrading and repurposing exisiting buildings is a challenge across Europe ageing building stock Architects: Erik Brandt Dam
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INTERVIEW This decade is the most important one for energy efficiency in the energy transition. FORESIGHT spoke to Brian Motherway, head of energy efficiency at the International Energy Agency (IEA), to discuss why this is and how it can be better implemented
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peaking ahead of the IEA’s 7th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Sønderborg, Denmark ( June 7th-9th), Brian Motherway describes how global collaboration on energy efficiency measures is vital for its success. While there are different contexts for each region, the issues surrounding energy efficiency are similar everywhere, he says. The past two years, dominated by a pandemic and more recently war, have catapulted energy efficiency to the top of the political agenda, but Motherway believes the threat of global warming was already changing mindsets. While it is a complex puzzle to solve, energy efficiency is uniquely placed to combat the trio of current crises: energy security, climate change and unprecedented price hikes. FORESIGHT Climate & Energy (FCE): Why is energy efficiency a big part of the IEA’s work on the energy transition? Brian Motherway (BM): We’ve always called energy efficiency the “first fuel” and we realised that whether you’re thinking about energy security, energy access, affordability for citizens and, most of all, 46
climate and net-zero pathways, none of this is possible without a lead from energy efficiency. If you look at the IEA’s net-zero pathway, it’s absolutely clear that it would be impossible to achieve without a lead from energy efficiency. The more efficiently you are using energy, the less investment you will ultimately need in wind turbines, the grid and everything else. Energy efficiency underpins everything. There are a lot of energy efficiency technologies that are ready, fully mature and economical. This has been amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many governments are thinking about the short-term issues, which is absolutely right, but also have a real focus on energy security and affordability. Energy efficiency speaks to all of these things. More than ever, there has been this realisation and that’s why it has been growing in recent years.
way. We must start with what’s possible and what’s economic already to make other things more achievable and more affordable. We need to capture the emissions reduction that energy efficiency provides. We need to remove emissions everywhere we can now while we wait for other technologies to mature and become more economic. We’re not on track— globally, emissions are actually going up, so we need to really focus on everything that can be done right now. It is also the decade of energy efficiency because of the here and now. We are in the midst of the biggest global energy crisis any of us can remember. The era of price volatility or concerns about supply security is going to be with for some time.
FCE: How important is the next decade in terms of making gains in energy efficiency?
BM: Energy policy discussions have a tendency to think about the supply side—that is just the nature of the beast. Sometimes it is more tangible, I can physically see a wind turbine or a solar panel. Energy efficiency is more abstract when you are
BM: This decade is the most crucial for energy efficiency because it is such an essential component of the net-zero pathFORESIGHT
FCE: Has the “efficiency first” principle been forgotten? Why has much of the focus been on adding more clean generation instead?
TEXT David Weston ILLUSTRATION Sine Jensen
Energy efficiency is here to stay
ing, “What can I personally do to reduce my bills?” It’s on people’s minds more than ever. Certainly, the 2022 crisis has expedited that, but I think we were heading in that direction anyway. In the context of climate change, both citizens and governments were realising with all these countries setting net-zero targets and accelerating their climate ambition, there was a rapid awakening that energy efficiency is central to it. FCE: There is a paradox that suggests the more energy efficiency that is added, the more energy consumers tend to use. How do we overcome that?
BRIAN MOTHERWAY
“Some of the schemes that have maybe failed in energy efficiency, assume that it is simply a question of paybacks”
engaging with politicians or investors. It’s hard to show them the energy that wasn’t used. What creates more of a challenge is people understanding how to unlock that potential. There are times when energy efficiency has oversold its potential impact; that all you have to do is X and you’ll save Y. Whereas many lawmakers have had experiences with underperforming programmes, or there is a degree of “healthy scepticism” as to how to deliver energy efficiency because it is complex. Energy efficiency is much more cross-governmental,
in terms of policy, governance and implementation. It’s harder to do by definition. FCE: How can consumers and end-users be encouraged to take up energy solutions at a greater scale? BM: Now is the perfect moment. People up until now haven’t known what their energy bills are or how efficient that boiler is or [considered] their car. But that’s very different in 2022 where people are really suffering from high prices and feel more [price increases] are coming. They’re askFORESIGHT
BM: If I insulate my home today, and therefore it is costing less to heat, I am going to cash that gain in two ways: I am either going to spend less on energy or I am going to have a warmer, more comfortable home. If I’m living in energy poverty or living in a part of the world where these measures haven’t been affordable until now, I’m likely to take the majority of that cash gain as comfort gain. That’s a valid thing to do and is making somebody’s life better. But in either case, I never end up using more energy. It’s a question of how much less energy do I use? Sometimes people describe this as a failing of energy efficiency but if you look at the literally billions of people in the developing and emerging world who just can’t meet all their energy needs— because they can’t afford it or the energy isn’t available—it’s a tremendous victory for energy efficiency if their lives are becoming more comfortable, if their industries are becoming more competitive or if their societies are becoming more mobile. So, energy efficiency isn’t always just about energy savings. It’s always about just making people’s lives better through a mixture of savings and other gains. FCE: How do we help poor communities and households in energy poverty to maximise the benefits of energy efficiency? BM: This is a very important issue. There are lots of things people can do today in terms of just adjusting their lifestyles, 47
RENEWABLES For years, farmers had to decide to stick with their traditional produce or twist and turnover their land for renewables projects. Until recently, it has not been a financially viable option for agriculture and solar panels to live side by side. But new techniques are providing a chance to use increasingly scarce land more efficiently
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ne of Technical University of Denmark’s (DTU) test facilities at Research Center Risø, north of Roskilde, is dominated by shadow. The fixed solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, in lines running east-west, face south meaning the ground behind the panels is shaded for most of the time. Meanwhile, the ground of the neighbouring test facility, still covered in solar panels, is flooded with sunlight. These rows of solar panels run north-south, providng more access for the sun. Also, there is more room between the rows—up to 15 metres compared with five metres at the first site. This frees up space for crops to grow or livestock to roam more freely. The site is Denmark’s first Agri-PV facility and the researchers are obtaining promising results. With the right combination of technology, hours of daylight and produce, a new pathway to a more efficient use of land emerges. To make this set up feasible, single-axled PV trackers are used, which follow the sun from its rise in the east until it sets in the west. These trackers used to be prohibitively expensive but, just like other renewables technologies, the price has dropped significant-
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ly in recent years. The price difference between the fixed and moving panels is €0.05 per kilowatt hour. Agri-PV is already taking off in Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany, and its introduction in Denmark would be most welcome as the country tries to overcome a lack of space. “It’s a bid to solve the conflict around the [use of ] open land, which we would all like to use for different purposes,” says Uffe Jørgensen from the University of Aarhus and one of the associated researchers at the test facility. He points to two arguments the use of Agri-PV techniques aim to solve. The first is a traditional criticism of solar power facilities: They take up space which could be used as important farm land to grow crops, especially during a time where food security is an issue due to the war in Ukraine. The second argument was seen during the debate around the first generation of bioenergy. At that time, replacing agricultural land with bioenergy production—or solar panels, now—actually leads to more emissions. The lost agricultural production needs to be replaced elsewhere, leading to a loss of established wildlife habitats. Scientists call this indirect land-use change. FORESIGHT
Between the lines Agri-PV sites might help balance the need for farm land and for greater renewables capacity
TEXT Rasmus Thirup Beck PHOTO European Energy VISUALISATION KirtThomsen for European Energy
Double up on land use to maximise resources
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Heavy industry plans to tread lightly The heavy industry sector has made significant progress in increasing energy efficiency in recent years and further gains are possible with greater electrification, digitalisation and changes in production processes. Meanwhile, material efficiency measures reducing demand for products like steel and cement offer major potential for energy savings for customers
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TEXT Heather Xx PHOTO O'Brian Xx PHOTO Louis-Michel Desert, Bernhard Lux & Miha Rauch
TECHNOLOGY
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TECHNOLOGY Energy losses in the production process contribute to making hydrogen produced with renewable energy expensive. Companies and researchers are working to improve the efficiency of electrolyser technology and scale it up, bringing down the green hydrogen price tag at the same time
Hydrogen sector targets production boost
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Most of the cost of producing green hydrogen comes from the renewable electricity needed to power the process, with the electrolyser accounting for the majority of the remainder. The more efficient the electrolyser, the less electricity is wasted and the lower the cost of green hydrogen. Electrolysers used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen now run at 65% efficiency according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), while analysts at the consultancy Wood MacKenzie put the end-to-end efficiency of green hydrogen production at 30%.
EFFICIENT ELECTROLYSERS Hysata, a spin-off from the University of Wollongong in Australia, aims to commercialise breakthrough hydrogen electrolyser technology. It revealed in an article published in the March 2022 issue of Nature Communications that its capillary-fed electrolysis cell technology can produce green hydrogen from water at 95% cell energy efficiency, well above IRENA’s 2050 target of 76% and what is currently achieved by FORESIGHT
TEXT Catherine Early PHOTO Chris Leipelt
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s the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states in its latest report: “As a general rule, and across all sectors, it is more efficient to use electricity directly and avoid the progressively larger conversion losses from producing hydrogen and ammonia.” But advocates of hydrogen produced from renewable energy—known as green hydrogen—promote its role in reaching net-zero targets particularly in hardto-abate sectors such as steel and chemical production, heavy transport and aviation. Demand for green hydrogen will grow to 500-800 million tonnes a year by 2050 to meet the needs of these sectors, creating a new multi-trillion-dollar industry, expects the Energy Transitions Commission, a coalition of energy companies, financial institutions and NGOs. However, building up a green hydrogen industry of these dimensions will not be easy. One major obstacle to growth lies in the inefficiency of green hydrogen production. Narrowing the efficiency gap compared with direct electrification is essential for green hydrogen to be competitive.
Plane green Hard-to-abate sectors like aviation offer a genuine route to market for green hydrogen
existing electrolyser technologies. This adds up to a hydrogen production cost well below A$2 per kilogram, Hysata claims. Efficiency gains have been achieved by reducing the electrical resistance within the electrolysis cell. This resistance wastes energy and requires additional energy for cooling. Hysata’s team develop a thin sponge-like membrane to suck the water up between two electrodes. Unlike typical electrolysers, this technique does not create gas bubbles during the operation of the electrolysers, removing the need for equipment to circulate the liquid. The technique also self-cools, eliminating the need for water-cooled chillers. The technology will save hydrogen producers billions of dollars in electricity costs and enable green hydrogen to outcompete fossil fuel-derived hydrogen, claims Paul Barrett of Hysata. The overall system has been designed for ease of manufacturing, scaling and installation, which also cuts the capital costs of producing green hydrogen. Barrett says Hysata is on track to commercialise its electrolyser and reach gigawatt-scale hydrogen production capacity by 2025. FORESIGHT
The company plans to build a pilot electrolyser manufacturing plant in 2022. In the United States, researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology are developing high-performance catalysts to make electrolysers more energy efficient and are using artificial intelligence in this process, explains Seung Woo Lee of the institute’s George W Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering.
“Costs will come down with innovation and scaling”
“Before jumping into the synthesis of any new materials, we wanted to down-select candidate materials to figure out what would be the most promising one that exhibits high performance in the water splitting. We use machine learning as a tool for this pro63
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