Lakers-Nuggets and Heat-Celtics expert picks as playoffs move to conference finals

For the first time in NBA history, a No. 7 (Lakers) and 8

(Heat) seed are in the conference finals. You might be tempted to call these developments a fluke. They’re not. They are an illustration of what has become an extremely equitable NBA landscape. In sports, we love to say “anybody can win” but that’s rarely actually true. At this moment in the NBA, it is true. The 2023 title race was wide open at the start of the playoffs. and it remains wide open now that we’re down to the final four.

If you’re looking for the betting favorite, it’s the Celtics at +105, followed by the Nuggets (+240), Lakers (+300) and the Heat, who come in at +1600, via Caesars Sportsbook. If you ask me, that’s some pretty great value on Miami, which could reasonably win the whole thing. I don’t think they will. In fact, I’m picking them to lose to Boston in the ECF. But it could hap- pen. Anything could happen.

With that in mind, let’s get to our staff picks for the two conference-final matchups, which begin Tuesday with the Lakers at Denver.

(All predictions were made before the series started.)

Nuggets vs. Lakers

Reiter’s pick: Nuggets in 5. There’s no time like the present to go all-in correcting a mistake. And the Nuggets have showcased to me and those around the NBA just how great they are. Nikola Jokic, of course, is an all-world talent, but this is a complete basketball team that compliments Joker’s immense talents. They made easy work of the Phoenix Suns, and there’s no reason to think they can’t do the same against the Lakers. LA’s run has been remarkable, of course — but LeBron’s age and minutes, AD’s fragility and unreliability and the reliance on so many overachieving role players catches up to them against a legit No. 1 seed.

Quinn’s pick: Nuggets in 6. Denver has been by far the best team of the postseason. The Lakers have been rockier, hitting enormous highs and troubling lows that often boil down to their inconsistent 3-point shooting and how much energy LeBron James is capable of expending at any given time. They are incredibly vulnerable to foul trouble in this matchup. As well as Anthony Davis played the last time the Lakers and Nuggets met in the playoffs, Dwight Howard spent major chunks of that series guarding Nikola Jokic. The Lakers have no such secondary option. If Davis ever has to sit, Jokic gets to destroy Wenyen Gabriel. It’s been a remarkable effort for the Lakers, but the Nuggets have been the class of the West all season, and they should enter this series as the favorite.

Ward-Henninger’s pick: Nuggets in 7. I vastly underestimated the Lakers before seeing them methodically eviscerate the Warriors, but the Nuggets are a much better team with an unstoppable MVP playing the best basketball of his career. Denver should have success drawing Anthony Davis out of the paint defensively, opening up back-door cuts and drives to the lane. Offensively the Lakers should have much more success than they did last round, but the question of LeBron James’ durability given his foot injury and age is pretty much the only thing making me lean toward the Nuggets with home court advantage.

Botkin’s pick: Nuggets in 6. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league. He will guarantee Denver good shots all series long, and the only way that kind of consistent, high-quality offense doesn’t result in a win is if the defense can’t hold up at all. Have you been watching the Nuggets play defense? They’re more than holding up. I think L.A.’s run ends here.

Herbert’s pick: Nuggets in 6. Los Angeles might be able to find a lineup that can muck up the Nuggets’ beautiful offense, but it would likely struggle to score. And if the Lakers prioritize spacing, then it’s hard to imagine them getting enough stops. Unless Anthony Davis makes a zillion jumpers, I don’t see a realistic path to an upset.

Kaskey-Blomain’s pick: Lakers in 7. I’ve learned not to bet against LeBron James and I’m not going to start now. The fact that the Lakers are even in this position after completely retooling the roster at the trade deadline is impressive, and the team appears to be growing increasingly comfortable as a unit with each passing game. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent this postseason, but when he’s been good, he’s been really good, and if he can channel that level of play for the bulk of the games, the Lakers should have the edge.