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2023 bring? BY AMY GILLENTINE agillentine@sixty35media.org

businesses and consumers alike seem to be bracing for another year of uncertainty: How will the local economy perform? Is it resilient enough to withstand a recession? Colorado Springs businesses have faced ups and downs during the past three years: pandemic, staff shortages, inflation. And yet, most are still standing and bracing for the future. Sixty35 is here to help answer your business questions. During our annual Book of Lists release (the BoL is a great tool filled with contacts and other useful information that has helped facilitate business-to-business commerce for more than 30 years), we’ve asked a panel of local experts to discuss what 2023 might bring businesses and consumers alike.

Uncertainty can lead to unnecessary reactions from small business owners who are both scared and worried, says Aikta Marcoulier, regional administrator for Region 8 of the Small Business Administration. Marcoulier will be one of three panelists at the Feb. 2 Book of Lists launch party.

“There is no recent event that has created more uncertainty than the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the years, our Pikes Peak region small businesses have endured numerous disasters including wildfires and flash floods. The pandemic, however, has given ‘resiliency’ a new name,” she says via email. “During uncertain times, many business owners experience financial insecurity and are unable to make realistic predictions about future business operations. Uncertainty, no matter what the cause, can in turn lead to a myriad of stressors such as inventory management, price setting, employee engagement, and overall mental health.”

All that can be avoided, she says.

“I have seen firsthand how uncertainty can force small business owners into reactionary efforts to find SOME control in an uncontrollable situation,” she says. “Cutting hours, cutting marketing, laying off employees, and creating operational short cuts can all be avoided with the implementation of a proper Business Continuity Plan.”

While business continuity planning isn’t the most fun part of owning a small business, Marcoulier says it’s vital.

“I have seen small businesses endure countless disasters throughout the Rocky Mountain region. Business continuity planning is not a sexy topic,” she says. “However, it is essential — as oxygen is to the human body — to put a plan in place to add some certainty in an uncertain business environment. Now is the time to create and develop a plan, A, B and C.”

Panelist Tatiana Bailey, executive director of Data Driven Economic Strategies — a nonprofit focused on unraveling data and making sense of the numbers — says local and national businesses are facing a long-term struggle: to find and hire qualified people.

In her regular update, Bailey emphasized that any future downturn won’t look the same as those in the past.

“Something that is not emphasized enough in the discussions about labor markets is the demographic transition we currently have underway,” she says. “I agree that hiring will slow and modest layoffs will occur, but most advanced economies simply do not have enough bodies to cover the number of job openings. And the chasm is big enough that an economic contraction will not reduce job openings enough to cause some of the larger spikes in unemployment that we’ve seen in previous downturns.”

In other words, the labor market will remain tight.

“Despite a slowdown in job openings since April 2022, we currently have 0.6 available workers for each open position,” Bailey says. “The current skills gap exacerbates the (qualified) labor shortage and the mismatch between postsecondary education and labor demand cements a future shortage. In short, I believe we’ve entered an era of slower economic growth alongside persistently steady demand for labor largely defined by demographics.”

What does all this mean for local businesses? This panel will share their insights beginning at 5:30 p.m. Feb. 2 at The Pinery North. We’ll spend about an hour of the event (5-7 p.m.) talking about the local economy, hiring, inflation, housing and more with Marcoulier, Bailey and the city of Colorado Springs’ economic development expert, Bob Cope. Sign up at sixty35media.org/events.