Climate Change, Peak Oil, Recession: Crisis or Opportunity?

by Michael Steinrueck

In recent months (2009) the “local transition initiative” has generated a lot of interest in Spring Valley, NY. On Friday, April 24, it hosted a well attended focus evening. This summary of the introductory presentation was published in The Listener.

Flying in an airplane over the typical American suburb, you receive an interesting impression. Everyone has claimed a private kingdom, as big as his or her resources allow, and rules there as an autonomous monarch. Looking a bit more closely, you see that a breathtaking arsenal of material goods has been accumulated to make this lifestyle possible and comfortable, keeping anything that threatens it at bay.

This way of life seems to function, and may even initially seem desirable, but as we look closer yet, we see that it is beset by some significant problems. For instance, it consumes resources at a rate that would necessitate four to six Earths if every person around the globe lived like this. It also may not make us nearly as happy as we thought it might. It is hard to imagine that it doesn’t contribute in some degree to the isolation, loneliness, fear, depression, and anxiety that are so prevalent today. Considering the entire picture, we can see that this way of life is simply not sustainable in the long-term. Its use of energy, its impact on the environment, and the current state of the economy are all saying that it will need to change.

Fossil Fuel Consumption and Peak Oil

This way of life is fundamentally oil-based. Most of the products we use, including much of our food, were produced using large amounts of oil—be it in the production of plastics, in the pesticides and fertilizers used by modern agriculture, in the energy used to create and transport goods, or in many other ways. In addition, we consume large amounts of fossil fuels to provide heat and light, run appliances, and fuel the transport of goods and people to and from their homes.

We know that fossil fuels are finite resources that will simply be used up at some point. While that point may still lie somewhat in the future, evidence clearly points to the fact that demand for fossil fuels is on the verge of overtaking supply. In other words, especially as the populations of China and India begin to aspire to lifestyles similar to our own, it is not possible to produce enough oil to fuel them all. At some point in the very near future, fuel prices will skyrocket as the battle for increasingly limited resources intensifies. This shift, called “peak oil,” is well known to experts in the field.

Four-dollars-per-gallon gas a year ago was certainly an initial effect of peak oil. Through the current economic downturn, the effect has receded for the moment as demand has temporarily dropped. To be realistic, we need to expect gas prices to go far beyond that in the near future, making the way we live now essentially unfeasible. Experts also agree that alternative sources of energy can never come close to replacing the amount of oil we consume now.

Peak oil is telling us: it’s time for fundamental change.

Global Warming and Climate Change

In the last couple of years, most people have come to accept global warming and the destabilization of climate as realities. Some still question how much human beings are contributing to it, but it’s clear that we should not be contributing any more than absolutely necessary.

The scientists studying climate change seem to be much more worried than the rest of us. In her book How Fast Is Global Warming Happening? Sharon Astyk writes: “One of the disturbing things about listening to scientists studying climate change is the fear in the voices and words of people not accustomed to be fearful, and the sense that generally speaking, scientists are far more worried than most of us are.”

What makes climate change particularly frightening is the issue of the “tipping point.” There are a number of feedback loops that at a certain point can no longer be reversed. The best known is the melting of the polar ice caps. White surfaces deflect solar radiation. As the ice melts, this radiation is increasingly absorbed by the growing dark surfaces, generating warmth and melting more ice.

There are a number of other feedback loops. For instance, uncondensed water vapor thickens the atmosphere, increasing the heat that evaporates more water and further thickens the atmosphere. It is known that forests, plankton, and the ocean itself reabsorb CO2, but the large amounts of CO2 that the ocean is absorbing has made its surface more acidic. This surface layer of acidic water, which is also warming, is killing off the plankton, which then absorbs less CO2.

The forests also absorb less CO2 as heat and dryness affect them negatively. They dry and burn, and whole ecosystems go from being carbon sinks to being carbon sources. A huge amount of peat bog is melting in the north, releasing large amounts of methane into the atmosphere, which has a warming impact about twenty times that of CO2. This naturally results in more peat bog melting.

There are still other feedback loops, and they all work together to create a process that at a certain point becomes irreversible and continues escalating on its own. If we haven’t reached that point yet, it cannot be far off. The climate is obviously telling us: it’s time for fundamental change.

Economic Meltdown: How Do We Respond?

America grew strong on its ability to produce. Today we consume far more than we produce. This has been possible because others have been willing to lend us the money to do so. That willingness is obviously ending. We look down and find that we are standing on a pile of debt rather than on solid ground. As borrowed money is gradually yanked away, our lifestyle cannot continue as it has. You can’t live on credit indefinitely. The economy is obviously saying: it’s time for fundamental change.

Looking at all of this, we can see a few possible reactions: a) What problem? (the ultimate head-in-the-sand attitude) b) Someone will find a technological magic bullet, allowing us to continue as we are. c) Buy some canned tuna and a gun, and find a cave—we’re doomed! (the survivalists). Or d) Take responsibility individually and collectively to prepare for what is coming anyway.

This could involve five C-words:

» Consciousness raising—understanding the situation.

» Conscience—what is appropriate for each of us to consume? What is our responsibility?

» Curtailment—realistically we would probably have to find ways to cut our consumption by 70-80%.

» Community—our strength lies in working together.

» Commerce—developing local economies will be essential.

This brings us to the idea of “transition,” which assumes that the changes called for can actually have a very positive outcome.

International Transition Movement

Rob Hopkins was teaching permaculture in Ireland when he encountered the concept of peak oil. This led him to develop ideas on how a town can power down, skill up, and develop the resilience needed to meet the inevitable changes. Together with his students he created an “energy descent plan” for the Irish town of Kinsale that was later adopted by the town government.

In 2006 he decided to implement his ideas more completely in the English town of Totnes. This became the first “transition town,” and the idea took off like a rocket. Today there are about 150 official transition towns around the world, of which 24 are in the United States. All are working to some degree with their town governments to turn transition goals into official policy. In addition, there are a very large number of initiatives in the process of becoming. In the United States, there are official transition towns of all sizes all over the country. Well-known ones include Boulder and Denver, CO; Santa Cruz, Sebastopol, Laguna Beach, Los Angeles, Mount Shasta, and San Luis Obispo, CA ; Ashland and Portland OR; Montpelier, VT; and Portland, ME.

Rob Hopkins’s approach is not top-down; he does not supply a recipe. Each location is dealing with a different set of circumstances and will need to develop an individual approach. But he makes many suggestions of what could be done, and how communities can work together to develop the ideas they will need.

Rob Hopkins

In marked contrast to survivalists, Hopkins is firmly of the opinion that the changes called for can lead to a richer and more enjoyable life than we have now. He also believes that community and working together are essential ingredients.

In 2008 he wrote The Transition Handbook, which features many of his ideas as well as descriptions of a variety of transi- tion towns. For information online (2023), see transitionnetwork.org/people/rob_hopkins/

Our Own Community

This community (Chestnut Ridge/Spring Valley, NY) is unique in several ways. Two very relevant things that have been cultivated here since the 1920s are consciousness change on the one hand, and biodynamic agriculture on the other. If we look at all of the problems mentioned, we can see that we are mainly dealing with a consciousness problem. Humanity at large has been living with the attitude: What can I do for myself? If everyone around the world could change that to: What can I do for the world? there is no problem we couldn’t solve. We need to fundamentally shift from being consumers to being caretakers of the earth. Anthroposophy provides a powerful support for this shift in consciousness and the inner growth needed to make it possible.

That is a great plus, but there are also significant drawbacks. The anthroposophical community has not always been good at reaching beyond its boundaries, and often exhibits an introverted gesture. We have created little islands in which we feel we are cultivating something essential, and wonder why the rest of the world doesn’t always find it as essential as we do. Rudolf Steiner spoke of the many Michaelic souls in the world. We have shown a tendency to devalue what they are doing if it isn’t anthroposophy.

Ours is a community in a crisis. It displays more dying than flourishing tendencies. If it stays as it is, it is hard to see how that can be turned around.

On the other hand, we can see Michaelic souls in the world doing things that have real vibrancy and future in them, things that are urgently needed in our time, things that strike a powerful chord in many people today. If we can begin to work together and join our strengths with theirs, a great revitalization and renewed blossoming of the community is very conceivable.

The Local Transition Initiative

Many people have taken a great interest in this process. We are asking ourselves: What does this community need to achieve long-term health, viability, and resilience? (We consciously avoid defining the borders of “this community,” and would like to include anyone in the lower Hudson Valley who takes an interest.) We see important economic issues to work on, such as increasing local food production, distribution, processing, and storage; developing alternative energy sources; developing green building techniques, preferably with local materials; developing systems of reclamation and salvage to reuse materials already present; and generally growing a local economy. We also see important social issues to work on, such as creating networks to interact more strongly with our neighbors; creating systems to share resources and equipment; helping those in need; and facilitating communication. In the long term, we see cultural issues to work on. Who wouldn’t like to live in a community with a vibrant cultural life, with active dialog and exchange of thoughts, with artistic activities, and with spiritual nourishment, especially as our reliance on electronic media for entertainment diminishes?

Some of these things are already present or have at least begun. These are in need of support. Much of it has hardly begun to be envisioned, and there is plenty of room for creative, imaginative engagement. How this moves forward depends upon the initiative of each person involved. To get involved, visit the website localtransition.ning.com where you can find all sorts of information and join the email list. We are planning a series of events on food next, and after that renewable energy.