Why Should We Care About the Ukraine-Russia War?

Why Should We Care About the UkraineRussia War?

Words by Skye Xie

Yuval Noah Harari has become a household name since the release of his magnum opus, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. Recently, following Russia’s shocking military invasion of Ukraine, the historian penned an article for The Guardian titled Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war, arguing that opposite to Putin’s assumption, this invasion has all but strengthened the national identity of Ukrainians. The article is worth reading, and similarly worth watching is his interview with Bruno Giussani on TED regarding the global impact of this war. Other discussions on the platform surrounding the same topic would further deepen one’s understanding of this event. From the upending of a world order that we have observed since the end of the Cold War to the possible acceleration in Europe’s transition to renewable energy, Harari and his peers proposed that the impact of this war could travel well beyond the border of the two states.

An Upending World Order In ASPI’s Agenda for change 2022, Michael Shoebridge boldly declared, “Globalisation 1.0…is dead,” alluding to the past decades of unipolar and liberal internationalism. In recent years, we have witnessed the decoupling of the global economy and an increase in regional political disturbance. Covid-19 has been a direct factor, but the reasons go deeper than that. The Ukraine-Russia war reflects this circumstance. We might even say that it nails the coffin of the previous world order. As news reports fervently exclaim, “War has returned to Europe,” thus, a sense of uncertainty rises to haunt us all. When economic sanctions failed to deter Putin’s army, countries tiptoed around, searching for ways to defuse the situation. Many of them are unwilling to upset Russia. When votes were cast on the UN’s resolution to condemn the invasion, ten Asian countries abstained, including major powers like China and India. Emerging economic powers such as Brazil and Pakistan are not severing their ties to Russia, either. Weeks before the invasion, Brazilian president Bolsonaro visited Moscow and announced that he is, “In solidarity with Russia,” despite Washington’s warnings. The Prime Minister of Pakistan declared his intention to press ahead with developing Russian-built gas pipelines in his country after the invasion occurred, ignoring the words of the West. What we are seeing is a new world order in which countries may not side entirely with Russia – but more and more of them are no longer echoing the voice of Washington, either.

A Gloomy Forecast An important reason behind this change in political stances is that all countries have to navigate themselves in the upcoming economic turbulence. Even in Australia, we know that the spiking costs of petrol, beer and groceries are painfully draining our wallets. While our country might be tough enough to uphold its values regardless of the cost, many developing countries simply don’t have the resources. Food security comes to mind, as Russia and Ukraine combined take up a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. The International Grains Council’s price index shows an astonishing 28% jump in the price of wheat, so who will suffer the most? Developing countries in North

Africa and Asia. What impacts us more is the foreseeable climb of the defence budget. European countries such as Germany have announced plans for an increase in their defence budget in the face of Russia’s threat, and the privilege of a peacetime will soon be gone. They, just like us, are justified in doing so under the current climate. However, as countries enter into a new era of military competition, fewer resources will be allocated to public health, education and social welfare. Such a change in priority will likely be observed in the decades to come.

A Greener Future? Alas, not all hopes have been lost. To leave on a slightly more positive note, experts state that Russia’s invasion will push the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian energy export by exploring renewable alternatives, “Today climate policy and energy security policy are one.” German energy expert Sascha Müller-Kraenner says, “This transition is likely to be painful and costly, but in the long term, the pros outweigh the cons.”

This will bring new challenges and opportunities to Australia. Historically, Australia’s economy heavily depends on fossil fuels. As this dependence is undermining our ability to meet our 2025 net-zero targets, we must also start to rethink our energy strategies like the European countries.

At this point, we do not know when the fire will cease in Ukraine. But even after normality resumes, many things in the world will not be the same again. We should be cautious of these possibilities, and be ready to take on future challenges as they come.

References 1. Harari, Yuval Noah. “Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war.” The Guardian, 28 February, 2022. 2. TED. “The War in Ukraine Could Change Everything”, 3 March, 2022. Educational video, 49:38. 3. TED. “What the War in Ukraine means for the world order”, 12 March, 2022. Educational video, 49:13. 4. Savage, Gill et al. “Agenda for change 2022: Shaping a different future for our nation.” Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2 February, 2022. 5. Tiezzi, Shannon. “How Did Asian Countries Vote on the UN’s Ukraine Resolution?” The Diplomat, 3 March, 2022. 6. McCoy, Terrence. “Brazil’s Bolsonaro embraced the U.S. under Trump. Now he’s in ‘solidarity’ with Russia.” The Washington Post, 16 February, 2022. 7. Parkin, Benjamin and Bokhari, Farhan. “Pakistan presses ahead with Russian-built gas pipeline.” Financial Times, 16 March, 2022. 8. Foster, Ally. “Price of some supermarket items could rise by 20 per cent, as petrol, beer cost spikes.” News.com.au., 15 March, 2022. 9. Ubilava, David. “Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving up wheat prices and threatens global supplies of bread, meat and eggs.” The Conversation, 15 March, 2022. 10. Sheahan, Maria and Marsh, Sarah. “Germany to increase defence spending in response to ‘Putin’s war’ – Scholz.” Reuters, 27 February, 2022. 11. Hockenos, Paul. “Will Russia’s War Spur Europe to Move on Green Energy?” YaleEnvironment360, 14 March, 2022.